Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the global descent is getting steeper economically as the virus spread is widening.
First in the US, their Congressional Budget Office has issued new projections that show that without further action, the American federal budget deficit would be -$3.7 tln in fiscal year 2020, and federal debt held by the public would equal 101% of GDP by the end of the fiscal year. In 2019 the deficit was -$984 bln and the debt 82% of GDP. What they are reporting is a stunningly quick deterioration.
Separately, new data shows US durable goods orders fell more than expected in March. A -12% fall was expected but a -14.4 fall was reported. April will show a sharper decline of course.
Consumer sentiment as measured in the University of Michigan survey was very negative, and a small uptick last week was snuffed out in this week report.
The US domestic rig count has fallen again and by much more than expected. A -5% fall from its new low level was expected for the week, but it actually fell -12% to 465. There were 805 at the start of 2020 and 1083 at the start of 2019. Capacity is being extracted now, not oil. This latest decline is their worst on record.
In Canada, their government is to bail out commercial landlords via 'forgivable loans' provided they give at least 75% rent relief to tenants and promise not to evict them.
In Brazil, the country is facing a new political crisis and their financial markets are recoiling in the fallout.
China is approving new construction as fast as it can. But among the approvals are for 10 gigawatts of new coal-fired power generation capacity in this year’s first quarter, roughly equal to the amount approved for all of last year.
Last week we mentioned the imminent South Korean election, but overlooked the results. The public's perception their government is handling the coronavirus pandemic well has powered President Moon Jae-in's ruling Democratic Party to a landslide general election victory. Perhaps the central lesson for politicians, democratic ones at least, is that prioritising public health, even over economic interests can pay off at the ballot box. Authoritarian ones will need to stuff their ballot boxes harder.
The closely-watched IFO survey of German businesses managers was equally negative, and more so than the gloomy expectations.
The EU is to release its economic forecasts later today and these are also sure to be gloomy.
In Europe, leaders have unexpectedly agreed to a €1 tln collective rescue for Europe's free-falling economies as key data showed much larger declines than in the GFC. That comes after the US Congress agreed an almost US$½ tln addition to their support measures, taking them up to US$3 tln. And Japan has rushed through additions taking their support package to US$1.1 tln.
There are now 1456 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with 5 new cases yesterday and more than the prior day's +3 increase (net zero). Seventeen people have died, an increase of one, all geriatric patients. There are now 8 people in hospital with the disease, with one in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 75% and rising.
We need to fess up to using out-of-date official data for Australia. What we had reported for infection and death data has been correct, but the recovery data was incomplete. We were using the JHU source (below) but there is a more direct official source. That shows their official recovery rate at just under 76% today. (H/T BdB). Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 2,780,094 and up +73,000 this time yesterday which is an unchanged rate from yesterday.
Now, just under 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is unchanged in a day, and they are up +17,500 since this time yesterday to 886,200. This is a slower rate of increase. US deaths now exceed 50,000. Global deaths are about to exceed 200,000. Sweden (everyone's favoured control) is now reporting 17,600 cases and rising 1000/day with a total now of 2152 deaths in a population of 10 mln. Neighbours Norway and Denmark are reporting deaths of 199 and 403 for populations of 5.4 mln and 5.8 mln respectively. Finland is reporting 177 deaths in a population of 5.5 mln.
China and Singapore are battling renewed virus outbreaks.
The New York state Governor has declared that the virus strain hitting his state hard originated in Europe, not China. It is a claim based on testing and science and throws cold water on White House claims.
After a faltering start, the S&P500's has risen steadily to be up +1.4% in late trade. But even with those gains, it will end the week -1.3% lower than at the end of last week. Overnight, EU markets booked losses of about -1.5% and Frankfurt ended the week -2.7% lower, London was -0.6% lower for the week. Yesterday, Shanghai closed down -1.1%, Hong Kong down -0.6% and Tokyo down -0.9%. The ASX200 was up +0.5% on the day but for the week was down a chunky -4.5%. The NZX50 Capital Index closed -3.3% lower for the week.
The UST 10yr yield has slipped -1 bps to just under 0.60%. Their 2-10 curve is unchanged at +38 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also unchanged at +19 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is narrower at just under +50 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.89% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is down -2 bps at 2.51%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -7 bps and now at 0.83%.
The VIX volatility measure has fallen this week after spiking mid-week. The Fear & Greed index we follow has stayed on the 'fear' side of neutral all week.
Gold is virtually unchanged at US$1,724/oz.
Oil prices have risen marginally today. They are currently at just over US$17/bbl but still below the level of a week ago. International oil prices are firmish too, with the Brent benchmark just under US$22/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar has changed little overnight as well. We are now back at 60.1 USc and a very similar level to a week ago. On the cross rates it's a different story; we are at 94.1 AUc and a -¾c retreat in a week. Against the euro we are also similar to our week-ago level at 55.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 66.3 and just marginally softer than where we were at the wen of last week, and bang-on our four-week average.
Bitcoin is little-changed from this time yesterday at US$7,522 but that is a +6.7% rise for the week. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
190 Comments
"We need to fess up to using out-of-date official data for Australia. What we had reported for infection and death data has been correct, but the recovery data was incomplete. We were using the JHU source (below) but there is a more direct official source. That shows their official recovery rate at just under 76% today."
It's all good and thanks for the mea culpa... now its time the nz govt did the same and admit Australia has done as good or better job at eradicating. They are down to single figures of new cases across the whole country with some states reporting zero new cases. The A-team of the ANZAC
Does it really matter 'who did it best' as long as it gets done?
Again, 'it's all easy looking back' and no one knew/knows how this will all play out.
Countries who thought 'they had it licked!' are now struggling to get it back under control.
Hopefully, Australia has its outbreak nailed and it stays that way. Likewise New Zealand.
100% of cancer sufferers who have an operation still get aggressive follow-up treatment to get on top of the illness. But only 50% will actually need it. Which 50% can't be picked upfront. Should we not treat all 100% just because 50% don't need it?
Same with the approaches that our two countries have taken. No one knows, still, whether an aggressive '100%' treatment was needed or not.
"Does it really matter 'who did it best'"
Yes it does matter to those who will foot the bills... go ask someone younger than your buddies at the local retirement village. The millenials will have this to pay for, so while there may be a helicopter on the way to rescue us (with OPiuM), did we need to crash in the first place??
A metaphor comparing helicopters despatched to crash scenes and the bad management of our 'conservative labour' leaders. (80 thousand deaths my arse). Now the govt helicopter money is on the way to gleefully throw out billions of Other Peoples Money into our economy. Australia is having the lockdown you have when you're not having a lockdown. And the aussie politicians are being lauded for it around the world. This is no joke that the crisis was mishandled by nz govt right from the start and the govt had time to prepare but sat back. They told us with a straight face how hard they were working. Enjoy your day IO searching for property bargains... you missed that boat in 2013 when you thought the market would 'crash' 50 percent
Not at all - but it perhaps should be declared that 'i've never voted for anyone other than the National party' and as such, no matter how good anyone else's policies are, and no matter how terrible National party leadership is, it doesn't really matter because I believe in tribalism.
I've been a National voter before, probably will be again in the future. But if you only ever vote for one party because that is what you've already done, you should perhaps give yourself a quick bias/heuristics check on what you believe and vote for.
Yes partisan politics hugely counterproductive. Immeasurably that is what is afflicting the USA CV19 response. One party would sooner see something fail, hurt the country and people, rather than the other get the kudos for fixing it. And here in NZ for a country of this modest size, we have far too many zealots to whom one party can do no wrong as much as the other can do no right. It sucks!
Her statement of disagreement despite the facts presented was very Trumpy behaviour. But the socialist soccer moms will never admit that. But in fact - it was very Trumpy. The Trumpiest of Trump responses tooting her own Trumpet.
So now we are supposed to not only worship at her feet as we see our freedoms and wealth melting away but blindly accept without question that things are all good because if our leader disagrees and says they are... all good.
That is extremely worrying.
So not only is the land of the long red cloud fast turning into a socialist utopia (nightmare) but we have a government controlling the messages which come through the media. If Jacinda disagrees, all good, then she must be right.
Our government, led by JA is full of people who've never actually done anything. All many of them have done, ok apart from put chips in a fryer, is suck on the public teat and drink nectar of the fruit of the magic government munny tree.
Be worried. Very worried.
Bloody hell. Here we go again.. hind sight has 20/20 vision. There was the potential for 80,000 deaths at the start, there was no science to say other wise. But no you are calling it was a mistake after the fact. Not relevant what so ever.
Then we have not had the second wave figures, FYI virus do that. 80,000 is still possible.
The figure was based on nothing being done, not even basic precautionary measures, or hospitalization care you would naturally do for say influenza cases.
It would be like working out road deaths if no one had a driver's license, or used the brakes, or drove at night with the lights off, etc.
Totally meaningless comparison.
You do understand that the numerator is known, but the denominator is not known? If the various antibody tests are accurate, the denominator in some countries may be off by a factor of as much as 50 to 80 too low. That is, in countries where CV is widespread, there is a significant number of people that have had the illness but were never tested so do not show up in the denominator number.
The numerator is also not known. In NZ we count anyone that died of the virus anywhere, we also count those that are suspected of dying of the virus.
In the some jurisdictions they count only those that died in hospital of the virus, not those that died elsewhere, nor those that were suspected of having the virus before they died. Some states in the US just this week changed their death counts to include probables and community deaths, which caused a large spike (NY was one).
Think he/she misses the fact that the current outcome (death rate) is only a result of the lock down. And if we let is run rampant through society our ICU wards would be spilling out onto the streets with no enough ventilators to go around and the death rate climbing exponentially. But hey - lets just get back to work asap.
Also to be factored in is the dire/fatal consequences for the severely ill and injured patients that still exist everyday everywhere in NZ. How does the care necessary there, in an already pressured health system, cope if there is a flood of CV19 admissions. Do some fools actually think these usual cases will no longer exist or need tending.
Yeah, I heard the same argument today while walking around. Some munter pretty much yelling (because there was a few groups of people around, so he wanted to show how dumb he was) that the number of suicides is going to be much higher than the number of deaths, therefore the lockdown is pointless.
I politely explained to him that he wasn't comparing apples with apples, we already know what happens if it's not contained, just look at Italy or even the UK. He couldn't seem to understand that the low death rate is because of our containment measures.
I wouldn't mind if I thought that St. Jacinda was actually getting it completely right but after saying they were going to completely close the border in conjunction with our nationwide lockdown we still have had a constant flow of Kiwis returning. I guess this ongoing inflow reflects the new cases being registered after 4 weeks of being in our own bubbles given the incubation period is supposed to be 5 - 10 days. Plus, it has only been during the last two weeks that a mandatory quarantine has been in force and I suspect that the next government oversight will be that those released from quarantine will not be tested to determine whether they are actually asymptomatic Covid carriers or not. Allowing Air NZ flight staff dispensation from the earlier self-isolation rules imposed on all other incoming travellers has already shown to be seriously flawed. Then, to justify opening schools and early childhood centres under Level 3, Ashley Bloomfield's assertion that children rarely get Covid or if they do they don't have particularly serious symptoms and can't pass it on to adults was the final credibility straw for me. Eventually we should get Covid-19 under control here in NZ but once we have no new cases arising, which must be the Grand Plan's objective, then I cannot see our borders being opened too much as per the proposed "shared bubble" with Australia suggestion.
You want to remove NZ citizens rights to return to their own country? Over a couple of hundred people a day who are all going into quarantine?
And no, the return of citizens is not the source of the new coronavirus cases, they are locally transmitted cases with 75% being related to the known clusters recently.
Ps, we had 5 arrivals on Wednesday
I didn't suggest in my comment that we refuse entry to NZ permanent residents. However, it was very clearly stated by the PM herself when she announced the move to Level 4 and the start of our nationwide lockdown that our border would be closed to ALL but that returning New Zealand permanent residents would have a grace period of an extra 48 hours beyond the start of the lockdown/border closure to get back into the country; i.e. she specified they had up until 11.59pm Friday 27th March to return. If the government then waived that border closure for Kiwis, and perhaps fair enough, they should have instituted a mandatory quarantine there and then; not wait another week or so to do this as was the case.
Isn't having 50,000 returning kiwis a week , and them having to go into self isolation, in a country already in lockdown - working exactly as designed?
What's the alternative? Build a quarantine camp as large as Palmerston North to hold 14 days worth of returnees? And then still go into lockdown a month later anyway once the community spread from the already domestic cases reached the critical point.
Better to have killed 2 birds with 1 stone.
I note - cynically - who the HT was to, and the inevitable tribe of hangers-on.
Can we remember, please, that nobody had hindsight when they had this laid at their door. Ask who did the more logical thing (assuming you wanted to save lives; global overpopulation being a relevant issue nobody is brave enough to introduce)?
The answer is NZ. You can always back-off, but if the horse has bolted you're f....d.
Those bleating will be doing so from a 'me' angle. Our PM was a bit bigger than that.
Thanks mate glad to see that you are chirpy this morn. And just to correct your statement, Pacman1946 was referring to the mighty hamilton market and not the global one. As far as The Waikato goes we have a vibrant farming and education economy. Those are two sectors that stand to benefit as consumers source high quality food and decide to upskill. Now that burst your bubble.
Well I know that you are looking to buy right now so that says more about your true beliefs than the rhetoric that you put out there. Back 11 years ago we bought a home from a JW doing door to door bible. The outlook for the GFC was as bad as it could get and to him he "had to" get out of the market. Paid 360k and sold for 900k around 2015. If you're looking for a steal I would talk to doomsdayers like that bloke.
You must go straight to comments and skip the articial. DC has been pointing out massive global issues for weeks now as this is a financial site, I 4wcomend that you actually read what has been written as your view is totally contradictory..
There is going to the goom and gloom crew and then there are going to be the wait and hope crew. Both of these will merge in 6 to 9 months time.
Looking to buy now?? No way, sit back and wait for reality to bite the bums of those with their heads in the sand. Easy pickings the doom and gloomers will be selling to the head in the sand crew and then well get some action... whoop whoop.
Have a some bonds, cash, TD's, gold, a few shares still, multiple currencies. Happily paying RWT.
What is producing income at present? Its very difficult to find yield!
And I'm not too concerned about your personal taxes...was just having a dig about our lack of capital gains tax across the board in this country. Think of all the tax we would have made the last 10 years during the property boom with people flicking houses! That $$ ready do distribute in a time of crisis such as this. Instead we just have very expensive houses, lots of debt, and no tax from it to aid us when it all turns to crap.
Houseworks, you're a diehard influencer to Hamilton like TM2 is to Christchurch. Trump also thinks injecting Dettol stamps out COVID-19 too. Owing to personal circumstances, its easier for some to deny the existence of the real world while attracting the utter dismay of others.
You commented - "IRD has all our records so not to worry" While that may or may not be true, can the same be said for Tenancy Services?
Silicone valley is making moolah from the crisis, while everyone sits quarantined the internet is booming.
Garbage. Expedia is one of the biggest spendeers on internet advertising and their projected spend is going to be slashed up to 80%.
https://www.campaignlive.com/article/ad-industry-needs-fighting-adverti…
Wanna laugh? Check this out https://twitter.com/voiceofrally/status/1253655914927792128
Hamilton will still continue to do well. Unlike Auckland housing is still Relatively affordable there and there has been an increase in net migration into the city. The opening of the inland port is coming and dairy is expected to perform well so Hams will do better than the rest of NZ
David, Agree with you that everyone is facing a Tough immediate future. Noone can deny that (one does not have to be an expert) but saw an email from RatWhite Real Estate Agent that suggest otherwise with subject line : 7 Reasons why it's Great Time To Sell !
Really...is RayWhite /RE Agents serious..how could it be a Great time to sell if though immediatel future ??
Email as below :
New Zealand’s outstanding response to containing the Covid-19 crisis has won global praise and also retained the core strength of our economy.
This is never more evident than in the property market, where keen buyer interest continues despite the lockdown and social distancing restrictions.
Median prices were up 13.7% to the end of March, and eight regions registered record prices.
Despite the virus, confidence among buyers has remained. Property websites are saying they’ve never had more traffic from potential buyers and investors.
This buoyant buyer behaviour injects a lot of market confidence right now. But if you have some fears about what the coronavirus crisis will mean for NZ, here are some fundamental strengths working in your favour:
The housing market was powering along before COVID-19 arrived, and the fundamentals have not changed. Our major cities are all in big demand, especially from young buyers seeking to enter the market.Investors are increasingly expressing interest in the property market, moving their cash from financial markets to a safer haven, or wanting a bigger bang for their buck than term deposit rates.The government’s new virus support package – the equivalent to 4% of GDP – will help ease the virus’s economic impact. The budget (May 14) promises more stimulus to the economy, and therefore the property market.Our mortgage rates are low thanks to the Reserve Bank’s money-easing policy in response to the pandemic.Banks remain stable, which makes this crisis very different from the GFC a decade ago. While lending criteria might tighten, it will be nothing compared to 2008. Credit availability will remain strong.This pandemic will not last forever. So, if you’ve found your next home and you’re confident of your employment situation, this will be as good a time as any to make your move.If there is a small depression in prices, it will work in your favour when you buy.
Had a phone call from a property development syndicate that I've been getting email updates from for the last few years. The guy asked if I wanted to buy something. Told him I was just watching the market for now and not willing to commit to anything under current economic climate. He then tried to convince me that I was going to miss out and that I needed to talk to a mortgage broker ASAP. At that point his argument became frantic and sounded quite desperate. Things obviously not going well and they're now actively trying to push buyers into their product. Alarm bells were ringing.
Maybe not take financial advice for RE.
When IMF did their stuff last NZ will have the biggest drop GDP biggest, and lesser rise next year, less than Aust.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/…
The job is in front of all of us to prove we can do better than the IMF forecasts.
Govt allocation of project funding will be critical.
Highlighting that housing market was powering........ (and here comes the best part)..... AND THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED.
True : House market was powering along before.......(So was stock market and many businesses)
False / LYING : Fundamentals have not changed ( How Stupid or may be they feel Kiwis are stupid)
INVESTORS WANT TO MOVE CASH INTO SAFER HEAVEN...
Really at this uncertain time. Intelligent Investors will be interested but at what price ? may be 20% or 30% below to hedge themselves against future uncertainity or will definitely wait and not try to catch a falling knives ( How is it a good time to sell even if investors are interested as interested at low price)
STIMULUS BEING PROVIDED....
Stimulus is to protect jobs and businesseconomy which may help some but not all and the very reason that stimulus are offered and so high indicates future dire state of economy.
CURRENT CRISIS WILL BE NOTHING COMPARE TO GFC (Trying to say not as severe as GFC) but reality is that most experts are comparing to Big Recession of 1929 or Spanish Flu on 1918 and most probably will be much bigger than GFC so again RE Agents are trying to create a smoke and Fib.
Finally at the end a Disclamer like in cigrattes packing or article -sort of a warning in fine print : IF your jobs are not lost AND admitting if price falls than good for buyer THAN Why subject line that good time for sellers to sell IF market will fall.
Time is good only if someone has to sell than earlier the better and ONLY than it is the right time to sell (Having problem and not able to hold for long) as going future being uncertain time more possibility of house price taking a hit than going up or even holding firm.
It seems RE industry is confused or trying to confuse and not clear as trying to create smoke /promote a rosy picture wheras reality is otherwise - which they too know.
Just had a look at central Otago bussiness for sale.
OUCH!
Queenstown from one of the richest areas to the poorest, Jim Boult Q'twn mayor.
https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/chilling-queenstown-goes-…
Its melting in front of our eyes.
As of Thursday morning 8400 people had already registered for welfare assistance in the district and a nationwide survey of tourism companies found they planned to lay off more than 13,000 workers.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121250347/queenstowns…
Its funny if you look on AirBnB in Queenstown - there are obviously a lot of properties listed for stays, even during the lockdown. And the prices they're asking still look like they haven't changed (i.e. hundreds of $$ a night). I'm guessing that may change once domestic travel is allowed again?
I dont care if you behave like a two year old throwing his toys around ... the pressure to reopen the transtasman trade has already started and I see that Australia and the Pacific are referred to as part of our domestic market. Within a month we will be in level 2. The warriors will be playing in the NRL shortly and we should be in level one later this year. Personally I would prefer to keep Aussies out for a bit longer, it's not up to me.
Friend in London just sent me this
.
UK suffers biggest slump on record / Comments by member of Bank of E interest rate setting committee
1 UK heading for a squeeze on economy unprecedented in speed and severity
2 Based on this and experience of other countries we are experiencing economic contraction
faster and deeper than anything seen in the past century or possibly several centuries .
3 Purchasing managers index slumped from to 12.9 from 36 in march. The low point of the
2008 recession was 38.1 . PMI of 50 indicates expansion.
4 EU figures slumped to 13.5 from 29.7 in march
5 Merkel stated that the infections indicate we are still at the beginning stage of the problem
Taking this with Stiglitzs similar comments on the US I, I think I will give Ramadan a miss this year.
Last time in Germany 6 months ago. As always very systematic, controls, disciplined. You name it but always an enjoyable experience in its own way. So as such this is the nation best suited to combat CV19 on the continent at least, and so it has proven to be. If in these circumstances the leader of Germany is advising the problem as only still beginning, then the world in general should take good notice and look to their own store with great scope and scrutiny.
She warned the other day that if Germany hits a 1.1 infection rate the hospitals will be overrun.
155,000 infections in a country of over 100,000,000 how long dose it take to infect over half of the country at a rate less than 1.1??? A year, two years, three years???
Yes saw that too. On a much smaller scale of course, but it was obviously NZ’s government thinking that our health system, hospitals etc were already strained, winter coming on, and uncontrollable admissions of CV19s would bring it to its knees, very quickly. What fate then for all the existing patients, oncology, cardiac, accidents, they just don’t conveniently go away because there’s a new kid in town.
need to lock down old people rest homes, don't follow Canada. First comment on link
'The healthcare workers to make a decent living were going from seniors homes to seniors homes even when they too were infected with this virus. Many places were not ready or expected this virus and had no protective wear to wear.
Ontario and Quebec have a serious problem right now with so many seniors homes and healthcare aids sick and death. A few of these were absolutely decimated with rampant infections and healthcare aids walking out as other getting sick from no proper equipment.
Now the military has been called in as many aids are sick or refusing to work without proper protection.'
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/24/tourism-in-southern-europe-accounting…
Still not as bad as the US, they're reached the 50,000 death toll quicker then I would have expected. At this rate of acceleration they'll be a 100,000 before June. BBC Coronavirus: US death toll passes 50,000 in world's deadliest outbreak. "More than 3,000 deaths came in the last 24 hours, and there are now over 870,000 confirmed cases nationwide." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52415579
US population 328,000,000. 870,000 infected so far. At least half of the population needs to have had the virus so that heard immunity can start.
164,000,000 at a daily infection rate of 35,000 per day = 4685 days till half the population has had the virus 12.8 years at the current lock down... with 20,000,000 dead.
Shocking failure in Canada. Still cannot figure out why here in NZ the rest homes were not locked up much earlier. At least at the time the international arrivals were told to self isolate for 14 days. I mean the residents were obviously all of them the same elderly and vulnerable in the public, that the government some days later were asking to stay out of harms way. NZ has most of its CV19 mortalities arising in rest homes, some of those may have been avoided by earlier action.
It's amazing, he was talking about UV light, using it as disinfectant, and he was describing an UV endoscope.
https://youtu.be/QtgVxGkrX1Y
UV endoscopes are a thing, got to find out if they work.
https://youtu.be/RZHQbKe9TtI
It's going to make many experts look less so.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121267296/coronavirus…
Yes he was talking about UV, then he definately talked about injecting disinfectant, I watched the damn video of him doing it.
Edit: also your argument falls to bits when trumps has come out and said it was sarcasm... So he claims thats he said inject disinfectant sarcastically, you claim he didn't say inject disinfectant, and you're both just backpedalling like mad.
Both not sure which one is worse. Besides Trumps 'heat and light' idea has already been rejected at the White House. And even if you watch Trumps briefing he's still acting like a game show presenter rather than a President, ironically he even states that in this video.
BBC Coronavirus: Doctor rejects Trump's 'heat and light' idea at White House. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52407181/coronavirus-doctor…
Houseworks,
Trump is clearly not a learned person, and is more than a bit of an arse at times (okay, a lot of the time). That doesn't mean that every one of his actions is stupid, clueless, etc. There is the remote possibility that he was attempting an analogy, although one has to be quite charitable to give him a pass in this manner. His riposte that it was sarcastic... well, I'm not sure he knows what the word riposte means, much less understand that sometimes one has to delegate to the appropriate specialists and keep your sticky fingers out of the pie.
None of the above defends the idiots that ridiculed Trump when he imposed a ban on travel from Europe to the US. He should have done so a few weeks earlier. For that matter, if one downloads the detailed data for the CV19 cases in NZ, one can easily get to the conclusion that if NZ had put a similar travel ban in place at the same time, and also inforced a mandatory 14 day full isolation, we would have maybe 10% (likely much lower) of the cases in total instead of nearly 1500 cases. The majority of our overseas cases came from people traveling from overseas (and the largest overseas country source was the US) after March 15th. Including the people that got CV19 from these people, found later via contact tracing, shows that these travelers and associated contact cases resulted from travel and lack of required isolation after March 15.
I remember laughing in a sad way in early March when Dr. Bloomfield confidently stated that NZ had the capability for doing 550 tests a day which was more than a sufficiently high number. Fortunately this was ramped up later, but we likely missed many cases in the early days due to the severe test rationing that was in place.
Bottom line, it is easy to point fingers. In general, NZ has been doing a very good job overall. They have also made some serious missteps along the way which has increased our required time at level 4 and level 3. Not shutting down the borders earlier was a mistake. Not implementing an enforced 14 day isolation from mid-March was a mistake. Not implementing hard isolation on rest homes early on was a mistake. Fortunately, several of the nursing home commercial providers did a lockdown to protect their vulnerable patients far in advance of when the government finally acted. Without this, the CV death toll would be much higher in NZ.
When border restrictions were in place at the "self isolation" stage, they were not enforced in NZ. That was the police's job and it was not being done. There were numerous reports of people getting off flights, filling in a form lying about their isolation plan and this never being followed up. I wish I knew why it was not done and what went on between the government announcement that it would be done and then police failure to carry out the enforcement.
Aye he did act under much criticism for sure but the enemy was already within. NY an immense hub god knows how many flights and trains outgoing each day. One spark can produce wild fire. Probably two weeks earlier still too late with the volume of incoming passengers, not just N.Y.
Queenstown Lakes District Mayor Jim Boult appears to completely miss the point of temporary migrant workers - their lack of international job prospects is not our problem.
“When restrictions on movement are loosened, some of those able to leave the Queenstown Lakes district will do so. However, we believe that their significant need for support will remain as options to find work in tourism and hospitality are limited globally.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
Queenstown.Inc and all the fat-cats within has grown very wealthy on the back of cheap exploited labour. For many years. Now the tough times are here, businesses are contracting and Boult is off to Wellington screaming for welfare for those poor souls who have been exploited. Wait and see if and when the grandees who have benefitted from the blood, sweat, and tears of the exploited stand up and be counted
And let's not forget that includes Ngai Tahu.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
Custard, the here and now, these folk need help with food, shelter and redeploy and transfer, or transfer and redeploy.
It's a social problem, that could blow further.
Imagining they can all fly home, or go anywhere in next couple of months is misunderstanding the situation.
Boult suggested the reason for their staying and significant need for support was the lack of global options to find work in tourism and hospitality – and not the fact that they may not be able to get home.
In fact, surprisingly, going home was not mentioned by him at all.
Every effort should be made to get them home – unless we consider NZ some sort of waiting room in the expectation that the world’s economy will eventually pick up and they can then move on at their choosing.
You missed quite an important point.
All these people getting repatriated back here, can those flights not do a return of work visa ex workers????
I see no reason they can't be sent home at out expensive. Still one h3ll of a lot cheaper than them staying here.
In fact make their last employer pay the airfare....
Let me know how they will get to the skifields because it wont be through Qtown international, thats shut for the forseeable future.
ATRs or whatever their called only for months at least. In the process of sacking everyone they can and that will be a few. Admittedly the CEO should be first for the high jump. But I digress.
The airport cannot operate for any passengers right now only airfreight and essential travel. How long until normal domestic flights resume? I would say when level 2 is here and that's a matter of weeks away. It's an opinion, you don't need to crucify me if you disagree. Seems those with an agenda are dismayed and angered at the notion that QT might rise again. Red rag to a ...
Also let's not forget that Jim Boult was very recently wanting to spend $400 million on upgrading Wanaka airport.
https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/wanaka/airport-analysis-has-flaws-boult-s…
It is morally reprehensible to bail out US airlines. Over the last decade, the US airlines spent on average 95% of their free cash flow to do stock buybacks. I suggest that they not get any assistance until they sell the same number of shares on the open market. Moral hazard indeed...
I couldn't find any links to a confirmed bailout for Boeing. Until Sept '20, yawn... I'd be guessing that the prohibition on buybacks has a rather short time limitation on it.
My opinion, this bailout is reprehensible. Senior execs at Boeing should be facing serious charges in relation to the 737MAX fiasco. That fiasco is the essence as to why Boeing is farcked. The CV thing, well, that is just a blip in comparison... well, at this point in time.
Boeing to receive government assistance
President Trump said the government would provide financial assistance to Boeing as the entire aviation sector faces economic turmoil over the coronavirus pandemic
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/boeing-to-receive-government-assistance/
Yes, when I searched around for data, I saw several links from that time frame that suggested that Boeing might get assistance. Note in the article detailed description that they were "in talks". I never found anything that showed whether these talks had any concrete result, or what the rules and restrictions were to be. I would have to put this in the unsubstantiated category at present.
Read top couple of comments too
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/24/tourism-in-southern-europe-accounting…
More Trump lunacy, BBC Coronavirus: Disinfectant firm warns after Trump comments.
A quote from him recently; "And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute," he said. "And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning? "Because you see it gets in the lungs and does a tremendous number on them, so it'd be interesting to check that," he said. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52411706
Henry you haven't read the article have you Henry and stop trying to be offensive. I even quoted what Trump said or are you so blinded by being a Trump supporter. Here it is again. Trump actually said he wanted to test injecting disinfectant in to people.
Quote: "I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning, because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs." Mr Trump suggested injecting patients with disinfectants might help treat coronavirus.
Not only does consuming or injecting disinfectant risk poisoning and death, it's not even likely to be effective. Doctors have appealed to people not to ingest or inject disinfectant, as there are concerns people will think this is a good idea and die.
Here's the Fact Check list NOW READ IT: BBC Coronavirus: Trump’s disinfectant and sunlight claims fact-checked. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52399464
Why go to the BBC because they report the facts, which also has video of Trump giving very dangerous misinformation that could actually kill people.
I can't believe that you are actually defending Donald Trump and ignoring the fact that he actually suggested injecting patients with disinfectants might help treat coronavirus.
I don't think anyone expects BAU, and I don't care who in government or in past governments. What we need is true understanding of what this current government plan is to help get people re training, into new jobs or how they going to create different jobs to place people in. So far the estimate for wage subsidy was blown out of water, we can't keep throwing $ at MSD and hope. Business community crying out for some direction and details from government, not media talk
FCM - the business community was/is a sub-set of those who were extracting, consuming and excreting, ever-more from finite stocks (and finning finite sinks withe the excretion). You-all expected to go out and buy processed bits of the planet (processed by an energy source that is finite too) with your 'profit'.
How long did you think that paradigm was going to continue?
We have to de-grow, now. Crash-course therein required. Give us a yodel if you ever want help with that (I've had more practice than most), but forgive me if I lack sympathy for those who bet on the future delivering ever-more. The last tulip always happens.
I'm still trying to farm in a very dry season. Hills are a lovely golden crispy brown, no rain forecast out to first week of May.
I'm not trying to make money at the moment just manage risk. We are export dependent and in parts of the world meat is backing up in the system.
Friday in Quebec 92,000 hogs backed up when meat plants closed, looking at beginning to euthanize hogs from this week.
That's just one plant in Canada, Winnipeg has its own problems. Tyson foods shutting beef plants in States. I suspect when this ends it will take months to catch up in processing, that means a lot of meat on markets. Friend told me that his wife went to Walmart and there were two packs of pork chops on shelf only meat available at time.
Cattle farming friends in States are growing crops to keep beef animals on farm, rather than try to sell to feed lots and get hammered on price.
I am being quoted a lot of store animals, I just think they are too expensive and I'd rather leave the farm empty, heavy dews are keeping the young grass alive.
So from here it's like staring into the void, I just need to see the bottom, then I can start to formulate a plan, but not till I see that bottom.
I'm okay, i started the year taking my lease back, I had no stock on, it's been my saviour. Also this is a dry valley, we only get 22-24 inch rainfall on average, I work around making money in winter not summer as it's also a warm valley.
It's the farmers up back who are normally summer safe that are really getting hit by this. the coastal country had rain and most are okay. River levels are very low as are my dams, mostly empty.
Low ground water levels won't cause us much of a problem infact they're great if staying low over winter. But like you I note that that stream levels are very low or nothing, and have been nothing for some time, around 4 months. Really warm here and with soil moisture and soil temp up grass is bolting. I'll smile(with relief) when/if we get over the 2200kgsDM average 1/6 target.
It's lovely and warm here days are noticeably shorter though.
from guys I follow on Twitter and just as the USA was starting to move a lot of pork to China.
'Two friends confirmed Christensen Farms will euthanize 12,000 head of market ready hogs in renville county shortly...I'm not sure what to add here...the more this news spreads, perhaps a less barbaric and wasteful solution will be expedited'
'They are gassing chickens down here. I heard of a 5 house farm being totally euthanized.'
'I do some work for Christensen farms among others and its dire straights.'
I’m in the sales side of this, and we are looking at a shortage in the next 3 weeks that the market will have a very hard time with. Oversized cattle and pork, no inventory of birds ... the run 4 weeks ago will be nothing compared to what’s coming'
How does one dispose of 3.6 million#s of hog carcasses?
https://www.producer.com/2020/04/hog-sector-in-crisis-federal-aid-reque…
More problems with language.
Q. When is elimination, not elimination?
A. When it doesn't mean eradication.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/121206976/prime-ministe…
If USA cannot see the bottom of the void and have not really had a discussion of the way out of the seized up lockdown, then what hope for us on this tiny Island to navigate our lives, I wonder.
@ 5 minutes and 10.25 minutes the key epidemiologist indicates we don't have the answers.
We [ globally] have only just started [ the war].
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Zixm-bB7e4
Queenstown.Inc protection racket
Two years ago, April 2018, the same Jim Boult was pleading with the government to exempt wealthy foreign buyers from the foreign buyers ban who bought properties in Queenstown worth more than $2,500,000
Have a slow read - here at interest.co.nz - takes your breath away
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/93297/governments-coming-under-pres…
Did everyone notice the timely reminder this morning in the dawn service programmes on the radio that Covid 19 was front and centre in veterans minds.
Those that gave so much whether abroad or tending the home fires are now requiring some sacrifice from us.
Time to walk the talk.
No one has ever seen a mess like this before
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/24/used-vehicle-wholesale-volume-collaps…
Dr Buttar
warning, he could be a crazy, i've only just started watching it
It seems that one thing will never change. People hear what they want to hear, and disregard the rest. Optimism about the property market, as if nz economy is not connected to the global economy.
I guess such optimists will be last to know.
To trying to see the bottom. This is more realistic. Yet the bottom gets ever harder to see, UK say it's the sharpest economic contraction in 300 years, back to the south sea bubble.
The impact economically is already incalculable, and yet some want to talk about getting back to normal.
Had we been living in a time where corporates through to families and individuals had savings, b4 they made investments, maybe it wouldn't be too bad. Yet the reality is we live in a time of enormous debt, corporates have been borrowing to buy their own shares for over a decade, been borrowing to pay dividends as well. Last year 45% of all share purchases were buybacks. That's incredible by any standard. Through to household level, a majority (globally) had less than $2000 in bank account. We have been living in an economy that actually lives pay check to pay check, and no sooner was an increase in value perceived, and everyone borrowed against equity in their house. In other words, as an average, everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs.
Global debt is now 350% of global gdp! These are incredible numbers, no matter what you are listening to.
It is not possible to solve a problem until the problem is clearly understood. Not just nz, the entire globe, have got some way to go b4 the problem (or the bottom) can even be glimpsed. And it's not until then that any talk of " recovery " can truly be entertained.
The Anzac's knew they weren't home until their feet were on home soil, and they were walking through the front gate. Lest we forget.
'It seems that one thing will never change. People hear what they want to hear, and disregard the rest. Optimism about the property market, as if nz economy is not connected to the global economy.
I guess such optimists will be last to know.'
The more of this talk/sentiment, the more my thinking is that we're in the denial phase of a bubble. Fits the description/s perfectly.
Great post.
Probably the biggest news in the financial world this week is that China has launched a state digital currency.
Now if that isn't utterly terrifying, I don't know what is?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/23/china-aims-t…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/23/chinas-digital-curren…
Taleb is correct
https://twitter.com/i/status/1253836250504708098
I must be getting old , I have never been on a protest march on Queen St or anywhere else , for anything, or any cause or any issue , or to demand anything , but I am now on a personal crusade .
I absolutely REFUSE to buy fuel for my wife's hybrid car or diesel for my SUV until the price drops to below $1 a litre to reflect the reality of the rest of the world's fuel prices .
Petrol is 99 CENTS a GALLON in the US , and a gallon is approx a tad under 4 litres , so its US 25 CENTS a Litre
The refining costs are the same worldwide give or take , so why are we paying 700 to 800% MORE than the US for a commodity (fuel ) which is a freely available commodity no different to a unit of electricity from Genisis , a Kg of bananas from the Philippines , a pound of butter from Fonterra or Kerry in Ireland , a can of beans or a litre of milk , or a Kg of Pork ?
I may have to buy diesel in due course , but since March we have saved over $500 in fuel costs by buying no fuel, and if just 10,000 families are all doing the same , then the oil companies revenue loss of $5,000,000 every 6 weeks will force them to come to their senses and drop prices to a fair price .............eventually.
Economic theory is clear , the producer or seller is in a worse position in a period of over-supply than the consumer or buyer, and where the general levels of prices are falling ( as they are ) and lets not forget the buyer can afford to wait much longer to make a purchase then the seller has to make a sale .
The seller can try to ride it out in anticipation of "better days " but they pressure of return on capital and sunk costs , debt servicing , wages and salaries , rents , production costs , and operational expenses means the product has to be sold ..............eventually prices will drop to reflect this reality
Its unacceptable that we are being screwed over by oil companies who are delusional in their belief that we are somehow different , and live where the world market price is irrelevant
In further pursuit of this personal crusade we are "saving " the petrol and diesel we currently have in the cars , and walked ( with our dog ) from Greenhithe to Albany to buy our groceries today . Its further than we expected............ (Dont panic , only one of us went into the shop), but it was lovely weather and good exercise, not to mention good for the planet
And while we are on the topic of prices , I also refuse to pay over the odds for meat, fresh fruit , veggies .
I grew up when food prices were reasonable, in relation to incomes , the past 30 years has seen food prices get out of kilter and I yearn for those days when milk was was cheaper than beer or coke , and we could readily afford to eat meat or a similar protein such chicken or fish as a main meal 7days a week on a median wage
We are a high income family and can afford to eat well , but I dont know how low income families get by
Our trip to the US and Europe last year was a big eye opener for us as to how much we are overpaying for food , fuel , transport and even clothing here in NZ ............from fresh in -season produce to bread , milk , meat , fish , you name it , all way cheaper than food in Auckland .
We hired a car at Gatwick for our UK leg , but used the Metro in New York for US $127 for a one month unlimited pass in a massive city .............the cost of the same pass in little Auckland ..............an eye-watering NZ$215 .
Given the PPP and income levels of the two currencies , Kiwis really are getting a raw deal .Public Transport in NZ is so expensive , its little wonder we all use our cars instead
Hopefully this virus brings about DEFLATION in prices , and it would not be a moment too soon .
So when Grant Robertson says thing will not be the same again , he could be right , and maybe not in the way he thinks
You are not alone in your crusade. The covid 19 situation has certainly exasperated the oil glut, yet there is actually an oil war in place, and it's against those that have constantly been trying to push oil over a $100usd p/barrel
So you have enormous powers to aid you in your quest.
The days when milk was cheaper than beer and coke. Unfortunately society took the path of complete capitalism, and by that I mean it allowed, or more correctly, permitted almost everything (short of charity perhaps) to be ruled by profit. And by not protesting, by not questioning our purchasing, by focusing on monetary return, we all became complicit in corrupting values in our society. Health and medicine, research and development, when profit rules, none of it takes place without the finance team and the marketing team doing a cost analysis, and a projection of profits first. Very little is actually done in our society today without the financial benefits being calculated first. So much so, that as long as the figures look good, debt is created, or rather credit is given/taken, before any profit has been earnt. And this system relies on certainty, so undertakings with less certain outcomes are edited out of the market,and we are left with what we have today, a very one dimensional economy, and masses of debt. Numbers and graphs and charts all fit very nicely into an economic model, regrettably people do not. So perhaps there will be a reset, and those of us who have not previously demonstrated, or protested, or stood up for the things we believe in, will get a chance , through voicing their opinion, through the actions they take, like not buying petrol, or diesel, until it's a price they believe is fair, will create a system that more accurately reflects the society they wish to live in.
I think it was a great rant by the way.
Friday China cancelled the G20 meeting (video call), because they don't want to talk about the WHO.
https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3081505/coronavirus-…
Here is a tip.
70% chance nz uses the Australia tracing app.
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/virus-tracing-app-to-be…
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