Factories contract worldwide, except in China; US spending dives, to be followed by GDP; South Korea and China plan a tech future; Aussie housing slips; UST 10yr yield at 0.66%; oil unchanged; gold up; NZ$1 = 62.9 USc; TWI-5 = 68

Factories contract worldwide, except in China; US spending dives, to be followed by GDP; South Korea and China plan a tech future; Aussie housing slips; UST 10yr yield at 0.66%; oil unchanged; gold up; NZ$1 = 62.9 USc; TWI-5 = 68

Here's our summary of key economic events over our long holiday weekend that affect New Zealand, with news May is a month best forgotten, but it is not clear June will really be any better.

There were a range of May PMI reports out overnight and they almost all reported contractions, but at a lesser pace than for April. That was true for the US and Canada, and for the EU. But Japan's contraction got worse in May (but it wasn't as deep as the others in April). The odd one out is China, where they reported an unexpected return to an expansion, and that is despite weak export orders. Things are not good in India, where they got virtually no bounce in May and remain deep in recession.

In Australia, there was no improvement either, but they are not in as steep a contraction as most other countries. The rival Aussie PMI reported an easing, but only to levels below the Markit report.

In the US, the April data for household income and expenditure reports some outsized gains and losses. The burst of stimulus in the month has had an outsized impact on incomes, and that probably indicates how precarious the average household income level was prior to the widespread lockdowns.

The CARES relief cheques and higher unemployment payments have helped to stem economic hardship with a one-time bounce of +13%, but those programs have not acted to stimulate discretionary spending.

Consumer spending, the American economy’s main engine, fell by a record -14% in April. It may have declined by a lesser amount in May, but it will still have declined and the echos of that pullback are being felt worldwide. And there are signs on deflation appearing.

One loud echo is coming from America's manufacturing heartland in the Chicago area. Their PMI fell harder than expected in May, lower than in April, lower than in the GFC, and its lowest in nearly 40 years.

Also lower than expected is consumer sentiment. That stimulus money is being 'saved' not spent, as the outlook darkens further and consumers hunker down with sharply lowered expectations. Consumers are sensing what the Atlanta Fed is reporting - a humongous collapse in economic activity in Q2-2020, down by more than -50%. That is, missing activity at the annual rate of -US$11 tln. For each of April and May alone, it could be as high as -US$1 tln - that's equivalent to wiping out the economies of Australia and New Zealand in eight weeks.

The world will notice, even if equity markets are still turning a blind eye to events of this magnitude.

Leading up to what will also surely be a disastrous Q2, the Canadian economy contracted at at -8.2% annual rate in Q1-2020. They currently have "a neighbour from hell" and their dependence is hurting them hard at present.

Job losses are mounting everywhere.

All those predictions of a sharp V rebound seem like just hopeful guesses now.

One government is focusing on the future; South Korea. They have announced a NZ$100 bln 'New Deal' plan to reshape their economy. The plan aims to create and extra +550,000 jobs by 2022 focusing on 100,000 specialists in artificial intelligence and software programming. 5G investment is at the center of this plan. But it isn't the Green New Deal that many assumed it would be.

5G is also at the heart of China's focus on the future.

China is moving quickly to replace, even displace US tech in their supply chain. It's a disengagement forced on them and will have very long term consequences. In fact, US tech might is based on Taiwanese companies for execution and China has its eyes more clearly focused on Taiwan.

A key metric on how China's economy is returning can be found in a survey of American companies operating there. Half of respondents’ manufacturing facilities in China are operating at full capacity in May, a 14 percentage points increase on April. It is almost a certainty that local companies and companies owned by other nations will be doing better.

Evidence that the screws are on Hong Kong democracy is shown by a police ban on any recognition of the Tiananmen Square anniversary.

In Australia, their housing market stabilised in May. Housing values edge lower, while transaction activity partially recovered from the sharp drop in April. While the May value retreat was minor, it seems clear they are moving into a cycle where declines will become more normal.

The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 6,222,700 which is rising at a faster pace than recently.

Now, just under 29% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +77,000 since this time on Saturday to 1,797,500. This is a similar rate of increase. There are more new cases per day in the US than are being reported by any other country, including Brazil and Russia. US deaths are now exceed 105,000. The significant acceleration of outbreaks in both Texas and California will be worrying officials there. Global deaths now exceed 373,000.

In Australia, there have been 7204 cases (+31 since Saturday), 103 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just under 92% (unchanged). 20 people are in hospital there (-3) with 3 in ICU (-2). There are now 482 active cases in Australia (-6).

There were zero cases again yesterday in New Zealand, so now only one person is left with it in the whole country. We are now at ten days with zero new cases.

The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp today at 0.66%. Their 2-10 curve is marginally steeper at +51 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +14 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is steeper too +55 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up +2 bps at 0.91%. The China Govt 10yr is little-changed at 2.72%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also unchanged at 0.83%.

The gold price is higher today, up +US$5 at US$1,736/oz.

Oil prices are unchanged today. The US crude price is now just over US$35/bbl. The Brent price is just over US$38/bbl and back with a premium.

The Kiwi dollar has risen solidly over the weekend. We are now just on 62.9 USc which is a full +1c gain and an eleven week high. On the cross rates we have slipped back to 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also firmer too at 56.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is up to just on 68.

Bitcoin is slightly firmer today, up +1.7% to US$9,573. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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115 Comments

16
up

I don't think there is any dissension among non sound-bite economists that it is a categorically stupid policy borne from nothing more than desperation on Muller's part.

12
up

As election bribes go, it certainly has no sense of longer term thinking..

Not promising. Todd appears to plod. And Muller looks duller. As per the article here last week substance, innovative and energetic substance that is, is needed and fast. These are hugely uncertain times for all of NZ. NZrs are looking for any natural certainty on offer. Doesn’t take much to work that out surely.

14
up

One can only hope he finds his feet ............we need a strong opposition to the COL mess we currently have .

Frankly , our politicians inspire no confidence whatsoever , we have , like the US , ended up with a bunch of elected fools in office

Too true. Ironically to bring home that point, this government was for nine years a disorganised and ineffectual opposition. The Westminster system of our parliament relies on it being adversarial not a couple of light weights shadow boxing.

I think it's important to recognise that they look like fools because they are trying to operate an unsustainable model of economic development that doesn't seem to bear much resemblance to reality. They are all trying to extend and pretend, hoping that we can just return to what we had before, without recognising that what we had before wasn't working, most certainly not long term. I think in NZ we are slightly better off, because although we have a whole bunch of institutions in la la land (RB/Treasury/Productivity Commission, basically anything to do with economic development), we don't have the moneyed corruption that exists in the US where their Senators/House politicians are beholden to corporate sponsors. Nor do we have the political plutocracy where the same families control, or try to control the highest office (Clinton's/Bush's, soon to be Trumps, just wait for Ivanka's election bid if her big daddy wins the next one). That adds extra layers of shite on top of those people that are already un-electable.

Hamilton admitted that corruption existed well before day one to such an extent that it had virtually been sewn into the constitution. Corruption in the States is a huge industry an essential feed to millions and millions livelihoods, and not far behind that comes sheer and utter wastage.

14
up

Quote by H L Mencken in 1920's

“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

Our system now puts politics first, policy second, and a similar cynical quote could be made about our politicians, and ourselves.

Hey Boatman. You're really smart. You should run for politics and fix the "mess."

Hubhub. As I said the US will decend into roits. Not long now till the bullets start flying and it moves to the next gear.

"Frankly , our politicians inspire no confidence whatsoever , we have , like the US , ended up with a bunch of elected fools in office"
Know which bunch I would have running the country just now..

Todd appears to plod. And Muller looks duller.

Todd from Accounts. Apparently puts on a good keg party,

...as long as someone else paid for the keg...

Toddler is the new name, apparently.

"Consumer spending, the American economy’s main engine, fell by a record -14% in April.. And there are signs on deflation appearing...America's manufacturing PMI fell harder than expected in May, lower than in April, lower than in the GFC, and its lowest in nearly 40 years...Also lower than expected is consumer sentiment."
And in other news the US stockmarket indexes rose overnight.

18
up

Wall street is now a Frankenstein of monetary policy. Completely dead, but animated by the lightning of QE.

Why’s our dollar rising so quickly? Is it going to last?

I reckon its more a case of US$ weakness than Kiwi $ strength

Two reasons for Kiwi $ strength in my view, firstly risk -taking is back in favour (or greed has overtaken fear for now ), just look at equity markets

Secondly ,the US$ is again on the back foot , money printing has not worked other than to paper over the cracks , they have serious domestic social issues and are heading for a showdown over Hong Kong with the prospect of China retaliating .

And China has allowed ( or forced ) the Yuan to devalue significantly on Friday last week ..............biggest devaluation since 2008, thats over a decade , and is a significant move

Eventually when the next belt of Risk off comes the USD will climb super high again like it did in March. Too much of the world uses USD, it needs it at all cost, hence the reason Gold Bitcoin and pretty much all assets sold off in March because the dollar is what you need to keep going, its the way it is and will be for years to come.

Hasn't Orr made his intentions on devaluing NZD pretty clear? If NZD strengthens much more, or in any kind of enduring way, he will probably act to try and address that.
If the "V" recovery doesn't materialise we will probably see the "risk-on" exuberance evaporate and the cogs start whirring in the opposite direction.

There will not be a V shaped recovery in any way shape or form.

More like an L shape with a very long bottom stroke L____________

The bottom of that 'L' may get a bit limp as well.

I do not see the USD maintaining sole dominance as the reserve currency. I expect these riots to esulate and the world realizes that the US is a big fat lie. On one hand they force their will on other countries while not being a shining example of honesty and stability.
Meanwhile China and Russia keep the pressure on destabilizing the US.
The acilies heel of the US is the population deciding enough is enough and forcing the Govt to act, much the same happened at the end of the Vietnam war. Don't forget this is an election year and the country is devided on many levels but mainly on pro / anti Trump.

The value of any currency is about confidence. The US prints as much currency as it can, but the majority of the world uses US dollars instead of their own currencies made worthless by their cynical crooked politicians, and there is still a shortage of US dollars around the world. However, at some point, those countries with decent economic policies, and honest politicians will find their currencies appreciating against the US dollar. But it is all about confidence. The reasons for confidence or lack of confidence are the interesting bit.

I fail to see how confidence in the USD remains due to the riots, endless money printing and a debt that can not be paid back.

Show me a better alternative as a reserve currency.

Show me a plan to unwind the current hegemony that won't cause large scale and negative economic impacts.

Show me any large economy not printing money and in debt that has a currency that can be freely traded.

I dont know the answer, all I am saying is that the US is falling apart and very soon no one will want USD.

Sure, but what I am implying is that until there is a replacement not much else matters.

I am not defending the USD, but it's the best of a terrible bunch.

"Consumer spending, the American economy’s main engine"

No it is not, Mr Chaston.

The American economy consumes, but what it consumes is parts of the planet, and it does so by using energy to do the work. That energy is falling off the EROEI cliff, and increasingly the middle class have been pushed downwards (in their ability to consume). Debt-issuance prolonged the process (chemo does a similar job) but couldn't stem the trend.

Now we see not really a protest about one dead man (any more than WW1 was about an assassination in Sarajevo) but a disenfranchised mass echelon pushed over the edge. Back up one, and the virus probably initiated the volatility, the death merely the trigger.

But the engine of every economy? Good quality, compacy, easily-applied energy. It's the only real measure. I've just been - as usual - listening to RNZ - they're blind to this too. Ultimately, our whole social narrative was wrong. Gonna be interesting watching all the facets trying to make sense of the morph over the next few years.

@PDK ...........I dont know when you last visited the US , I was there for 7 weeks last year , and my word , they spend at an astonishing rate , and a lot of it is on credit .

Consumerism is a religion in the US . I dont know of anywhere on the planet where they spend on "stuff "like they do.

I dont dispute their consumption of resources of the planet is a problem , its a big problem , but its easy to recognize from both emperical evidence and simply seeing it , their economy is driven by consumer spending .

14
up

Completely agree PDK. The protest isn't about black vs white, it's about rich vs poor.

15
up

I think it's about people who cannot see a better future and recognise the place has been looted by wall street.

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-brooklyn-lawyer-moloto...

11
up

Daylight robbery by the elite and the 99% know it

13
up

Exactly. It's only superficially about race.
A huge amount of pent up anger exploding.

It's only superficially about race.

It is about race and it's not superficial. It's about racial, economic, and power inequality.

Race issue for some but a economic and power issue for others. It is what is pulling it all together in one big manifestation of anger towards the State. The bullets will start soon and then its game on.

Kezza, what do you see as the actual motivation behind the protests here?

He just plain hates the USA and his posts going back weeks have been very, very negative about pretty much anything related to USA.

So now stating facts like the US destabilizes countries, starts wars to control oil and to sell arms is somehow anti US. Somehow we arent allowed to bring this up and we should just allow them to do as they please. We attempt to remove bullying from our schools and culture but allow the US to act with impunity while bullying the entire world and their own population.

Empathy.
I think the world has had enough of the US standing tall pretending to be the bastian of all that is good, while they are obviously not even close to what they claim to be.

I suspect for some it is also partly because of the frustrations in their own lives here in NZ.

The really sad thing is George Floyd expressed his concern with the way young people are acting today in some posts on SM before he died. He talks about how the black youth of America are lost, choosing to kill each other in nonsense turf wars. Now those same youth are using his death as an excuse to commit robbery and assault.

I commend the NZ protesters on remaining peaceful. Sure, gathering in the thousands whilst we're at a restricted level of movement is a blatant breach of the rules, but to be fair the govt. flipped the bird first when they let that avatar plane land.

The consensus in US is that the biggest cause of death of young black men is other young black men. Why? Sort out what causes that, and problem solved. I suspect utter total and complete lack of parenting of these people. And being bombarded through electronic media about what fun others are having.

The powder keg needed a fuse, come CV19. The fuse needed a match. Come a Minnesota cop.

endemic racism - then add rich vs poor

16
up

I am astonished at the speed of recovery in Stock , and Bond markets , when the economic fundamentals are so bad .

It makes no sense whatsoever to see some share prices revert back to their December 2019 all-time highs , and this is either a sustainable recovery and we are back in happy days OR one massive dead cat bounce ............like the cat was a gymnast and fell onto a trampoline ..........and it happened in near zero gravity .

My bearish feelings suggest the worst is yet to come

Agreed

10
up

once in this no one knows how to pull up, do we buy the field? I don't think we can get out of ZIRP once in it. We will be stuck in a very low growth poverty trap for many. Expect social unrest.

13
up

The Thomas Jefferson quote sums it up brilliantly:

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. The issuing power of currency shall be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered."

Funnily enough, with the same largess in central banking, retail banking, and a generation of politicians in NZ, many of NZ's younger generations are also waking up homeless in the land of their forefathers.

Makes some good points;

"Variable velocity is a problem for traditional monetary models, because it renders the money demand [unction 'unstable' and hence monetary policy difficult or impossible to implement."

I am not sure I really buy into his conclusion before finding out how practical the idea of policing all credit in an active free economy is. I tend toward thinking the issue is that bad debts are partly the result of human nature and should be left to run their course rather than be 'rescued' by tax payers.

"The results imply for policy makers that it is imperative to monitor the allocation of credit and intervene, if credit creation for unproductive, especially speculative purposes takes place to a significant degree. Once an asset bubble has occurred, excess credit creation must turn into bad debt that tends to cripple the banking system and create a credit crunch."

Plenty of nz companies were greatly oversold when small investors fears knew no bounds. Did you apply the adage to be greedy when others are fearful Boatman

My understanding is that even Warren Buffet hasn't been buying but is sitting on a large amount of cash.

He went and told everyone he is selling up airlines... at 52 week lows (correction: at 10 year lows, 10 years is usually a full economic cycle, wow how dumb was that by Warren Buffett) ... at nearly age 90 has WB lost his mojo, and his company administrator CM is even older mid 90s.

Perhaps - but what if those airlines were to go into bankruptcy (and they could). He'd lose all his holding vs cashing out and walking away with something.

I wouldn't call him dumb...but guess he never discovered property investment so he must be eh!

Has he lost his mojo?

He already has more than he can ever spend, and has stated he doesn't intend to pass much on as inheritence.

So the question in my mind, is at nearly 90 and with tens of billions in cash/assets, does he really care?

Being head of Berkshire Hathaway he better bloody care otherwise retire. But once you give up you end up like brierley

Always have relief rally and was expecting this one too, to be a relief rally but now the current rally surprises and confuses.

No more based on fundamental but on Monetary and Fiscal policy... More the printing of money, Higher the index.

It seemed obvious that the QE and other stimulus was going to take the edge off and soften the impact. Even I could see that

Nobel prize winner says lockdowns were a huge mistake,

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobel-prize-winner-lockdowns-are-huge-...

15
up

Come on AJ - read it all.

"I think we need smart lockdowns. If we were to do this again, we would probably insist on face masks, hand sanitizers, and some kind of payment that did not involve touching right from the very beginning".

Plus which he talks about 'damage to the economy'- which means he's relying on another 'expertise' being correct. Which they aren't. Economics is running into the planetary Limits to Growth, now. No other story in town. And the knock-ons are too many people to support at their recent heights of consumption; also so many people moving so fast that a virus can cripple the fast-moving species. Yet slow the travel down, and their 'system' hemorrhages - it doesn't have the resilience to cope with a mere few weeks off. In fact, it was already well behind that 8-ball via debt-obligations (which had forced the demand far too far into the future.

I need to come down and buy you a beer, could even go as far as an organic compost grown Vegi burger with fries.
I don't think this is 'the virus', but it could have been. Things were slowing before the virus, I'm expecting us to enter the second ice age in economic terms, not expecting it to end in my lifetime, unless Elon gets Mars cranked up.

And so the anti-intellectualism continues.

17
up

Aus has another 31 infections. New infections 20 or more a day. And yet people keep going on about letting their flights in for Queenstown sake

Australia had 8 new cases yesterday - across 3 states.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov...

(20 cases all up are in hospital).

If Covid 19 was lethal there would be thousands and thousands of dead people in Africa and India.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-in-india-spreading-fast-as-covi...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/india-resumes-domestic-fli...

Agree should have been more in India and Asian countries but it has not been as bad as in developed countries, may be it has something to do with immune system and one theory is BCG vaccination that everyone have on birth in this countries... .. May be it has helped... Just a theory at this stage.

My thought is that developing/third world countries simply don't have adequate healthcare, so unfortunately the Wuflu prone individuals are already dead.

I agree with you, but not for the reasons given.

Covid, like all viruses, has a very strong seasonal pattern and how the seasons affect indoor air relative humidity, so hot humid poorer countries that have less air conditioning and thus more outside, are less affected. Thus NZ was never going to have an outbreak (like Aussie didn't) because we were out of season. BUT if the virus is still about, then we are just coming into the virus season now.

Places like Africa and India have very young populations so less at-risk people.

Where density matters, it is more about overcrowding in seasonal changes with poor indoor environments.

Of all the countries in the world that were initially going to be least affected, and could have managed this better, NZ and Australia were near the top of the list.

We could have managed this right from the beginning with a Level 2, with protecting the elderly in rest homes, which ironically have a poor understanding of the link between temp, relative humidity and air quality. And instead of the two-metre rule could have gone with masks in high-density public spaces.

This would have allowed us to develop some herd immunity amongst the healthy population prior to the virus season, which then would have benefited everyone, and without having to close down the economy as much.

As it takes up to 2 weeks for those infected with COVID to become symptomatic and another two weeks for those suffering the worst symptoms to become critical, the current death toll in India is a result of those infections occurring at the beginning of May. Around 40000 infections at that stage. The current death rate of resolved cases is around 5.5%. Is that not bad enough?

As a health and economic response wouldn't the priority be establish who was there and get a load of testing done?
One Govt. medic advisor has ready told all protesters to immediately self isolate for 14 days.

Deputy PM: "We can't have one law for one group of people and a different law for everybody else."

PM: She said "everyone" was meant to adhere to the social distancing restrictions, but it was for police to decide whether to prosecute the organisers.

Why just the organisers, How does "everyone" get turned into organisers? What's the point of prosecuting, what chance would there be of successful prosecution (mind you police don't need warrants to go into peoples homes).

And also this doesn't bode well for getting travel to Australia going. The State Premier's will be going - idiots. & the Warriors went so well.

Hopefully, someone is monitoring if there are any COVID19 infections in the next few weeks from any of the attendees at the parade in Queen Street ....

I am concerned banks will be lending right now to people who are about to be made redundant and are purchasing houses at all time high prices does anyone know if banks have started to take a harder line with peoples applications i.e job security/house values otherwise this mess will get even bigger everyday.

Anecdotally, I've heard banks are being very cautious about approvals and ensuring the customer has stable cashflow. The stress test rates they apply in the background have fallen about 1.5% however (the theoretical highest rate of interest they might expect to charge in the life of the loan).

BecNZ google "bank tightens mortgage", it looks like a credit crunch is building. There are pages of blogs and websites reporting both here and in Oz that banks have tightened lending criteria. There are reports from mortgage brokers, investors and FHBs. The reports vary bank to bank but are as follows;
*still applying 30% LVR to investors and 20% to FHB despite RBNZ lifting restrictions
*no longer funding construction (especially to investors)
*not lending to anyone with a career in a risk area (airline, tourism, hospo)
*going through applications with a fine tooth comb
*not having reduced the stress test, despite mortgage rates dropping
*not allowing some borrowers to use the equity from their home or portfolio as deposit

I am keeping an eye on it, because I was planning to borrow next year.

Sounds prudent

Thanks sounds like banks are being careful.

I would expect banks to be going over applicant's CVs and analyzing the cashflow of their employers. Plenty of ordinary folk may not realize they are about to lose their job.

We got pre-approval with a non NZ/AU bank at the start of lock down. They asked for the usual 3 months past bank statements but to my amazement not one question asked about income change or income security, in spite of the fact my partner’s income had taken a hammering.

which bank?

HSBC

"They asked for the usual 3 months past bank statements but to my amazement not one question asked about income change or income security, in spite of the fact my partner’s income had taken a hammering"

Just out of interest,
i) what is the size of the approved loan relative to the gross household income (i.e debt to income) of your pre-approval?
ii) what is the debt service ratio (debt payments to gross income)?

If the above numbers are small, then your situation is entirely understandable.

New property listings have dropped quite a bit to compensate for lower buyer demand. One exception queenstown. And property prices are up yoy

"lower buyer demand."

i) Isn't there a housing shortage in NZ? That's what most people are saying.
ii) Isn't the population growing and there needs to be more houses?

Property promoters like to remind people that there is a underlying housing shortage, and that is why property prices will not fall by much and continue to rise in NZ.

Evidence that the screws are on Hong Kong democracy is shown by a police ban on any recognition of the Tiananmen Square anniversary.
Some say there is no witnessed evidence - The Myth of Tiananmen And the price of a passive press

Once upon a time Stock market was suppose to be the barometer of economy but is it now ?

'..... The world will notice, even if equity markets are still turning a blind eye to events of this magnitude.'

The Stock Market is the perfect indicator of the health of the economy.
The fact that someone has their hand inside the back of the barometer mechanism and is pumping more poisonous mercury into the system; forcibly changing the dial from "Stormy" to 'Fair", doesn't alter the fact that a Storm is headed our way. Looks like it's really at about 950 millibars to me....not 1050, and rising, that's published each day.

Over the medium term Stock market values are forward looking based on fundamentals in six months. That is probably still true

Just another opinion, of course:

We're Living the Founding Fathers' Nightmare: America Is Corrupt to the Core.
America has plenty of law enforcement, prosecutors and prison cells for those who loot a Whole Foods, but none for those who loot the public treasury, commit stock market swindles or financial fraud on a monumental scale. Not only did no one go to prison for the rampant institutionalized fraud of the 2008 looting, a.k.a. the Global Financial Meltdown but the looters were bailed out by the Federal Reserve and Treasury.
More recently, no one was even questioned when a biotech company issued a press release about a Covid-19 vaccine trial that boosted the stock's price just long enough for insiders to dump millions of dollars of shares on a credulous public and also sell new shares in the company at a premium: a classic looting strategy known as pump and dump.
Members of Congress were caught red-handed in what amounted to insider trading, selling millions of dollars in their stock portfolios based on their secret briefings of the coming pandemic, while they reassured the public Covid-19 was no biggie. The farcical "investigation" found no wrong-doing.
Corruption in our political parties is so endemic nobody even bothers listing it.

(CH Smith)

This is not the forum for you to confess bw

Projected earnings are being slashed and share valuations are based upon discounted future cash flows which are falling and tumbling...but share prices rise...yes forward looking based on fundamentals in six months (not!)

Trouble is you're a forward looking pessimist and not everyone is like you. Thankfully

You’re making stuff up again because I’m providing data that doesn’t fit your paradigm.

I’ll be bullish when it’s time to be bullish.

Ha funny

Are there no ethicists in NZ ?
A considered debate that I have yet to see appear locally - where are they ?
'Saving The Economy Versus Saving Lives?': An Ethicist And Economist Consider A Coronavirus Question
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2020/04/01/economist-ethicist-coronavirus

The ethicists changed their religion to worship the altar of the almighty dollar!

I've a friend that is a professor of economics at a US University. He is doing a paper on the deaths caused, or to be caused, by the lockdown and is pushing the scope of his paper quite wide, even as far is an increase in child brides in places like India and Bangladesh. His early estimate is that the lockdown will kill twenty times more people than the virus ever will. In the first instance the increase in mortality for an unemployed person is 63%. Their life is shortened. Might be good for the planet but premature mortality has a cost to the economy. He'll also consider the boosts by lowered PM emissions and lower road deaths.

I take it from another perspective that also is only being considered by an outspoken few, the civil rights issue. Stephen Franks after reading my article on the Police actually stated to me the actions by Police, Health Authorities, and their relationship to government are a constitutional issue.

"There is nothing so afflicting and fatal to every honest hope as the corruption of the legislature." Thomas Jefferson. That just happened here in New Zealand and needs to be talked about. It is going to keep happening when the money printing to cover the loss of the tax base gets started in earnest.

We could have managed this without Police breaking the law, and without new intrusive powers being passed into law.

I'm not seeing an exit plan. I don't see a viable one that doesn't involve the virus coming back in.

Here Niall Ferguson with an historical perspective.

Yahoo Finance
https://youtu.be/RAAo1YJi8MQ
Sub titled, massive policy screwup..

Some very interesting points.

It is not simple, it is a balance between health and poverty.

Unfortunately poverty has no good fruit, including (ironically) poor health outcomes, particularly for children, but the health imperative is more immediate than the poverty one.

The imperative problem is more acute before a general election of course.

CHICAGO/BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - State-owned Chinese firms bought at least three cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Monday, even as sources in China said the government had told them to halt purchases after Washington said it would eliminate special treatment for Hong Kong to punish Beijing. Link

I see a lot of criticism about Warren Buffet , including that he is too old and losing the plot .

Its nonsense .

That old codger has been around a while , and seen it all ..........and most importantly he sticks to his knitting, and does not flip flop all over the place .

He invests in well-run Companies that generate cash and pay dividends as an over-arching investment philosophy ...........he needs to cashflows for his core business which is Insurance ..........and airlines are not going to be cash positive a long time to come .

He continues to sit on a pile of cash , and one would be wise to follow his lead .

'He continues to sit on a pile of cash , and one would be wise to follow his lead' ... yes indeed, and I'm weighted heavily that way just now. But there are also some intriguing opportunities floating by on which it is worth having a punt with the 5% 'discretionary' money part of ones portfolio. De, in or stag; the flation predictor tribes are strongly divided. Toes dipped in multiple camps is a sensible risk mitigation strategy.

Insurance of course being one of the greater con jobs round …

"He continues to sit on a pile of cash , and one would be wise to follow his lead …"

… you mean while they print and borrow into oblivion and devalue the value of everything including cash?
Hmm
Sounds like old Warren might be stuck in a time warp

Is the forcaste by everyone / experts that house price will fall wrong :

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/06/new-zealand-house-prices-ri...

OR is the current data mostly made up of houses sold earlier at high / pre virus prices and went unconditional in May / after the lockdown

OR is it come what may house price in NZ will never fall

Will know with data in October / November, what is the status of housing market in NZ.

Also this data reflects yearly comparison so is a possibility that actual rise would have been much higher and because of panademic has fallen (Though still high when caught the falling knife).

Agree that by November will know the status of Housing market in NZ. Most probably should fall but if not can concude that housing market in NZ is a one way street (If survived GFC with sligh fall and if can survive current crisis - unheard of).

If the RBNZ and politicians succeed in that they'll essentially be choosing to protect their own portfolio wealth at the cost of generations of Kiwis.