Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of bouncebacks but none at a level that reverse the downward track.
American house sales bounced back in May from April, as expected, but also a bit better than expected. But compared with the same month in 2019 they were -5.1% lower and that took them back to levels of 20 years ago.
The Dallas Fed's factory survey for June also recorded a gain from the dismal May result. But the bounceback from three consecutive deep declines is relatively modest and both current expectations and capital spending plans are still negative. These Texas businesses are not signaling they are willing to invest yet.
Also bouncing back, and slightly better than expected, are Canada's May building permits which have also been in the doldrums.
Bouncing back worse than expected however were Japan's retail sales in May. Yes, they rose from April, but they are a grunty -7.7% lower than the same month a year ago and for a country as large as Japan, that is a -NZ$13.4 bln fall in one month's trading.
In Europe, economic sentiment is remaining very low in June. The bounceback was very tepid and business sentiment is lagging consumers in quite a marked way.
The battle between India and China is heating up on the commerce front with India banning about 60 popular Chinese apps due to security concerns.
And in China, they are using their central bank and the financial system to be integrated into their "social credit" systems. They are creating "a credit system covering all of society” as a “core development goal”. As they say, the work will include “driving improvements to the social credit system and expediting the sharing of enterprise credit information,” as well as the “full use of new technology and new methods to strengthen credit information security.” All very Orwellian as a method of social control.
And all is not well for savers in China, and the threat of social disorder is growing as shadowy wealth management companies start to fail and savers press to get their money back.
The American home sales data is what Wall Street is clinging to today, and the S&P500 is up +1.0% so far. They follow Europe where equities were up by a similar amount. Yesterday Asian markets were weaker, with Shanghai down -0.6%, Hong Kong was down -1.0% and Tokyo was down -2.3%. The ASX caught the negative trend too, down -1.6%. But the NZX50 had an up day on the back of F&P Healthcare and A2Milk and was up overall by +1.1%.
The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 10,199,800 and up +155,100 in a day. Global deaths reported now exceed 503,000.
A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +32,500 since yesterday to 2,564,200. US deaths now exceed 126,000. The number of active infections in the US is now up to 1,753,100, up +26,400 in a day. Authorities who rejected the threat earlier are now recognising it's damage - but it is far too late. The rest of the developed world now needs to quarantine the USA with travel bans to protect themselves.
In Australia, there have been 7767 cases, another +81 since yesterday and most of them in Victoria. Their death count is still at 104 but their recovery rate has slipped back to just on 90%. There are now 655 active cases in Australia (up +66 overnight).
The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at just under 0.64%. The bond market is ignoring the equity mood. Their 2-10 curve is unchanged at +48 bps. Their 1-5 curve is marginally flatter at just under +13 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is holding at +53 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is unchanged at 0.87%. The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 2.90%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -3 bps at 0.91%.
The gold price is marginally softer today, down -US$3 to US$1,768/oz.
Oil prices have firmed by about +US$1 today. It is now just over US$39.50/bbl in the US and the Brent price is just over US$41.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is softer in a minor move down, now just on 64.1 USc. On the cross rates we are also slightly softer at 93.5 AUc and against the euro we are lower at 57.1 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has slipped to 69.1.
The bitcoin price has stayed down, and is unchanged at US$9,157. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».