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US economic data very weak; US housing stress rises; China factory PMIs expanding faster; Aussie housing risks rise; markets ignore risks; UST 10yr yield at 0.65%; oil soft and gold at eight year high; NZ$1 = 64.5 USc; TWI-5 = 69.4

US economic data very weak; US housing stress rises; China factory PMIs expanding faster; Aussie housing risks rise; markets ignore risks; UST 10yr yield at 0.65%; oil soft and gold at eight year high; NZ$1 = 64.5 USc; TWI-5 = 69.4

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets continue to turn a blind eye to the threat to earnings from the pandemic.

The factory PMI in the Chicago industrial heartland is still deeply negative, rising slightly in June after falling to a 38-year low in May. This was a disappointing result below expectations. This is the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the national ISM data for June is released tomorrow.

Last week American retail sales slipped lower than in the week prior in another disappointing result. And year-on-year, those weekly sales are now down -5.7% which represents a weekly decline of more than -US$6 bln in retail impulse.

But the June consumer sentiment index took a healthy jump from the doldrums in April and May all the same. The latest level is depressed to be sure, but it is a better sign.

In June, 30% of Americans missed their housing payments, down slightly from 31% in May but still up from 24% in April. Missed payments continue to be concentrated among renters, younger and poorer Americans, and those who cannot work remotely. A majority of payments missed at the beginning of the month are paid by the end of the month. But those who do not pay on-time in one month are much more likely to miss a payment in the following month. Some eviction and foreclosure protections are beginning to expire, creating concern that many Americans will soon lose their housing as a result of missed payments. 37% of renters (and 26% of homeowners) are at least somewhat concerned that in the next six months they will face an eviction or foreclosure.

China's official factory PMI improved marginally in June from May and records a small expansion, now out to four consecutive months. This survey has been reporting more conservative results over the past year than the similar private-sector version.

In Hong Kong, Beijing's new security law has been rushed into effect meaning that violators can be extradited to the mainland and face life imprisonment. China is facing near universal condemnation, adding to the genocide charges it faces over sterilisation of the Uighur minority in Western China.

In Australia, first home buyers and recent homeowners face higher risks of default due to higher borrowing and low savings, according to ANZ.

The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 10,366,000 and up +166,000 in a day. Global deaths reported now exceed 504,000 and rising by about +4000 per day.

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +46,200 since yesterday to 2,610,400. US deaths now exceed 126,500. The number of active infections in the US is now up to 1,778,700, up +26,000 in a day. Authorities there are now eyeing 100,000 new infections daily as they lose control of the spread. Widespread stupidity is playing a role too as anti-vaxxers spread misinformation about this crisis through social media channels.

In Australia, there have been 7834, another +67 since yesterday. Their death count is still at 104 but their recovery rate has slipped back to now under 90%. There are now 693 active cases in Australia (up +38 overnight).

Markets have become too complacent as risks from the coronavirus pandemic threaten global prosperity, the Bank for International Settlements warned in its annual report. The US Fed made similar warnings overnight.

But markets continue to ignore these warnings. It's 'risk-on' for them. Today, Wall Street is up with the S&P500 gaining +0.9% in afternoon trade. They follow European markets that were very mixed. Yesterday Shanghai (+0.8%), Hong Kong (+0.5%) and Tokyo (+1.3% all gained ground. The ASX200 rose +1.4% and the NZX50 rose +1.8%.

The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp to 0.65%. Their 2-10 curve is steeper at +51 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +14 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is also holding at +53 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 0.91%. The China Govt 10yr is down -1 bp at 2.89%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is back up +3 bps at 0.94%.

The gold price has risen today, up +US$13 to US$1,781/oz and an eight year high.

Oil prices have softened marginally today. They are now just over US$39/bbl in the US and the Brent price is just over US$41/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is firmer in a minor move back up, now just on 64.5 USc. On the cross rates we are unchanged at 93.5 AUc and against the euro we are firmer at 57.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has risen to 69.4.

The bitcoin price has stayed down, and is unchanged at US$9,145. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Free speech being rolled back not just in Hong Kong. Starting to hit NZ academics.


" test is merely whether it is “likely” that racial hatred could be stirred up as a result of the work."

That is a pretty scary precedent -- "likely".
Any (subjective) non zero probability that the piece, no matter how well reasoned and argued, doesn't toe the correct line of narrative should result in it being abandoned.

RIP publishing houses.


Not really a surprise in this day and age. Everyone is afraid of someone being offended, and I suggest there are people who are effectively professional victims. But I also think this is mostly because of their inability for critical thinking. More commonly there can be multiple interpretations of most statements, and most people don't understand that their 'offence' stems from their own interpretation, and not necessarily the authors intent. And that is the purpose of debate, to probe the authors intent, as well as ones own perceptions to develop true understanding. Agreement is not necessarily a goal.

Unfortunately there is now this popular idea that if a given statement has a possible interpretation that it is offensive to someone, the statement is seen as supportive or inciting to anyone who agrees with that 'offensive' idea.
i.e. 'dog whistling'
It usually requires that the source person has some link to the incited party, e.g. A brief comment on wealth tax by Jacinda is not seen as a dog-whistle to NZ's wealthy 1%. (I wonder if that requirement will fade as the next escalation in limiting people's speech)

Giving any credit to the dog-whistle concept is the perfect way to stop debate or thought-experiments or improved understanding.

The policing of words and morality is just a human group behaviour that it happens on a regular cycle. We are a social primate, we only survive in such vast numbers via these behaviours (ie austracising, bullying, copying, silencing each other to create social cohesion). It isn't always pleasant but it certainly isn't a uniquely left vs right problem (as it occurs throughout the historical record before the notion of left/right political spectrum existed).

Every era/generation seems to suffer some kind of collective amnesia as to the phenomena occurring previously, but it occurs over and over and over. We embed words, behaviours, clothes and objects with meaning and morality but these change over time. We re-construct our social narratives on an endless cycle of repeat. And every time it happens the comments and complaints sound exactly the same too. The indignation, the appeal against some future erosion of decency or morality, even the fear of a future "Orwellian state" has been repeated every decade since the 1940's when it was written and of course the actual 1980's looked nothing at all like Orwells dystopian future, although his story contained a universal truth about how easily groomed and manipulated the human brain is. The fact is, by the time we get to the future, it's never as we expect it. What people consider moral or decent will have changed again anyway. Sometimes there is more freedom of speech, sometimes less. Often the biggest social changes are brought about by subversive social movements not access to protest and free speech either, changes come eventually no matter how oppressive the dominant narrative. Christianity certainly started out as a subversive social movement in antagonism to the ruling culture (Rome) of the day. The Roman's were as horrified by them, as the Christians were horrified by the Roman's. Whether it be Commies hiding under the bed, Catholics hiding from Protestants or Protestants hiding from Catholics, free-love 60s social activists vs the prevailing conservative 1950's culture, you can go back 20 years or 2000 years, it's the same old s&%t and same old human nature.

Sometimes the narrative change happens quickly because of some shock to the existing system (new technology, environmental stresses etc) and then the rhetoric on both sides is much more violent and sudden. But rarely do the contemporaries experiencing this battle over the social narrative ever seem to recognise what a time honoured tradition they are part of and how well trodden their path is.

Re the Romans; the Romans tried to squash that movement, kill the idea by killing the man, Jesus (he was a real person, as his execution is mentioned independently by both a Roman and a Greek historian), but they learned that sometimes when you do that, the idea grows legs all on its own and it becomes a bit like trying to nail jelly. So then they did something that was utterly brilliant, and possibly never repeated in history, they took the idea, owned it, and rewrote it to their own purposes , and of course formed their own church. And today, 2000 years later, we can see that the Roman Catholic Church was the forerunner of all churches, with a cleverly written political document and doctrine at its core.

There were plenty of cults and revolts both spiritual and cultural that they quashed over the centuries, many just within the predominantly Jewish provinces. Crucifixion was in no way special or unusual, it was the standard punishment for what the Roman's considered terrorists, political dissidents and other serious criminal behaviour. I don't think it was necessarily the killing of Jesus that gave the movement legs but just luck and circumstance. Luck usually plays a much bigger role than we like to remember, because we view history with hindsight and apply providence and fate to circumstances as we remember, whilst forgetting the many other factors that did or did not occur but were equally meaningful. What Roman's eventually called Christianity probably bears only the scantest resemblance to what a historical Jesus (who if anything would have been a cult leader of a reformist Jewish sect) would have recognised as his idea. Let alone the Roman Catholic Church with Popes and Cardinals that we know now. I'm not sure what you mean about the Catholic Church being the forerunner to all churches though? There were many other variants of Christianity (and still are) and Byzantine Christianity was considerably influential for over a thousand years and still has greater influence than Roman Catholicism in parts of the world. Not to mention that Christianity itself borrowed much of its structure from earlier religious traditions.


"There are people who are effectively professional victims".

Golriz Ghahraman.


We've been paying them to breed.
About 10 years ago my wife and I removed a window, added French doors and a deck. We saved for months and I did the work myself after building all day.
Our neighbour had a look and said ' that is exactally what I want NZ Houseing to do at my place.' Then drove off in her $20k car, while we looked at our 2 cars with a combined value of $4k. Some, people have a serious entitlement issue going on.


There seems to be an entitlement mentality across a vast swathe of NZ society. Not just the traditional "bad" beneficiaries, but the folk who expect the taxpayer to cover all their risk, the asset owning cohort who take it as given that central banks and government should inflate asset prices, and the anti-beneficiary crowd who are more than willing to put their own hands out for benefits. 300,000 rental owners receive social welfare benefits for these houses, and that riding tide provides welfare support that lifts all rental boats.

Then you have the impacts of wage theft and worker exploitation.

Agree Rick - its a recipe for long term pain.

Alistair Scott. National MP. It's not that he took the handout, it's the entitlement attitude that comes with it.

I was thinking the same thing, guys worth millions with no social conscience, WTH, they don't get it, smart, but thick as mud. Enough money for many part time reading coaches at low decile schools.

Good on you kezza for getting stuck in. Your attitude is what's needed and will pay you dividends in future I am sure.

Cheers mate. In the time since I'm guessing that the nextdoor neighbour has paid off her car now and got another loan for an even better and expensive model.
In that time we dug deep, went without and have now paid off a very nice house in a very good area. We've still got relatively crap cars though.

The bright, beautiful, successful and millionaires will leave Hong Kong, if they haven't already. China's rein will strangle the residents left behind except for those students that have been offered a pass to the UK. It just adds to the conflict that currently exists with India. Who is next ?
It is hard to believe anything news item that comes out of China, including today's industrial trade outcomes.


Pathetic caving in to PC brigade

If only that were true. Companies these days face very real threats of fines from governments like Airstrip One the UK. The same is going to happen here in NZ if we don't stop Andrew Little bringing in new stupid laws as well. A total menace to our liberty. Don't think for a minute they wont being coming after all of us in the future. Just yesterday Reddit and You Tube purged hundreds of accounts including Stefan Molyneux's with nearly a million subscribers. Fourteen years of work gone in a flash. Also r/The_Donald gone from Twitter Reddit.

Large companies seem to be all for the banning of content as well. It's like the corporations and the governments of the world are in league to bring about George Orwell's prediction made in the novel 1984.

It's not too long ago - months, in fact - that right-leaning folk in the USA went all the way to the supreme court to argue that they should not be compelled to do business with people with whose beliefs they do not agree.

Would you propose that governments should overrule private companies and social media platforms and force them to host content from users who don't comply with their terms, or with whom they don't agree? These are private companies, currently free to provide or not provide their products to the market as they see fit.

More regulation for more freedom? Seems a tad Orwellian.

Yes I would because they are of such a size and scope that they can influence the outcomes of elections. The current situation is like the telephone company in the old days terminating your connection because they were opposed to your political opinions.

I think the companies in question would love to not have to deal with these issues and just let things flow. If the government said to Facebook they don't have to worry about any subscriber's content it would be a great relief to them and save them a lot of money and administration. The government should target the subscriber if they feel they need to not the platform. If we the people are not happy with that we can elect a different government.

Interesting...essentially a call to provide social media as a public utility rather than allowing private forums to be private forums. And for government to have more targeting of people's speech on the internet. Big brother watching everyone, as it were.

Re the worry about content, interestingly Trump was most recently coming out seeking to deny them the exemption that recognises that user-generated content is not something they're accountable for. This would massively limit that amount of speech that could be allowed, backfiring...essentially incentivising them to (for example) remove any of Trump's speech that incites racism or violence.

Yes they are effectively utilities the same as ISPs and Domain registrars. Donald is not always the sharpest tool in the shed, even his followers realise that!

I'm sure we can both raise a glass and enjoy the irony of seeking more government control and socialised provision in the name of freedom and free speech, moments after crying "Orwellian!" Next you'll be coming out against anonymity.

Well at the very least a government saying they will not fine you and hold you responsible for subscriber's content is not government control. If companies who had virtual monopolies abuse that position through manipulation then government intervention would be reluctantly applied. It's happened in the past.

Nowadays holding users to the terms of use they agreed to on sign-up, or even highlighting factual misrepresentations = "manipulation".

“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”

Are you feeling alright? These companies change their terms all the time, usually in response to pressure groups or government edicts. This is quite a sad day for me as up until now I always regarded you as slightly rational.

Bit hypocritical of you Zachary we're you calling Trump a "Genius" only a few days ago.

Never seen Rain Man?

Even the character from Rain Man (Raymond) wouldn't have been so stupid as to organize a Trump ego bloating, self centered political rally in the middle of a pandemic which sent the infection rate up in those states.

Ever seen "You've Been Trumped"

Real Donald Trump not gone from Twitter mate. They're just flagging his misinformation.

Thanks maate. I meant Reddit. Modified my comment now.

The Donald has been pretty dead for a while now as crowds have moved on elsewhere. This looks like a PR move by reddit, rather than a move with any effect. That said, the platform has gotten much more strict on content since it was heavily commercialised, rather than being a very free discussion forum as it was in the first few years.

Truly shocking. BBC Hong Kong security law: Life sentences for breaking law. "People in Hong Kong could face life in jail for breaking a controversial and sweeping new security law imposed by China. Washington, which also urged Beijing to reconsider, had already begun to end the preferential treatment Hong Kong enjoys in trade and travel with the US, bringing it in line with mainland China."

Hong Kong is being dragged into the swamp and the CCP are quite prepared to let it drown there. It’s a burr under the saddle and it was as predictable as it was inevitable. Taiwan and Sth Korea would soon share the same fate if they came under communist control.

This is going to have a huge economic hit. I was listening to a news article yesterday that raised some very good points highlighting how China is an incomplete modern economy that is on shaky ground. Gets very interesting about 10mins in. BBC Business Matters.

Agree CJ what they are ignoring is the role Hong Kong played prior to 1997. Much much more than just a major port, trade connection and portal. But the CCP are obviously of the mindset that they don’t know what they don’t know and even if they did they would care even less. The policies and ambitions of the regime are totalitarian, social control and dominance regardless of consequences. Yes million and millions have been lifted out of poverty but it has been too a high velocity industrial revolution that has created urban peasants out of the rural reaches. You know the same category and features modernised, that Dickens described so aptly in Britain, 19th century.

But there's a massive difference between a government imposing restrictions on free speech and a publishing house making a commercial decision. The first is censorship, the second is market forces.

The publishing house is making the commercial decision because the government is imposing restrictions, backed by force, on free speech. They clearly state the main reason they are not publishing is because of United Kingdom law.

Nonsense is it UK law! The publishing house is just using that as an excuse not to publish his book. I recently read Douglas Murray's The Madness of Crowds; Gender, Race and Identity (2019), which is an absolutely scathing criticism of the liberal left policing of language and culture (especially within university culture). Not only was he published but even people who disagree with him, can't deny that he poses an exceptional challenge to the stance of "political correctness" and he is quite a UK celebrity across some very mainstream outlets and current affairs programmes. This NZ lecturer's book probably just wasn't good enough to be worth any potential hassle to the publishing company.

Not sure why you feel the need to rush in and defend the publishing house. They did clearly state their reasons. Many people have been imprisoned in the UK for expressing opinions.

This is truly concerning. This reminds me of the fact that enemies of democracy, can use democratic tools to go up the power ladder and then pull the ladder from under the demo. Free speech is one of the most important things you can have in your life. This is from my personal experience. I grew up in a country that severely restricts freedom of speech (and often cites stir up religious hatred or offending religions people as the reason why). I grew up in relative economic comfort but being unable to say what you think about issues you interested in, is like someone holding your head under water. This probably is the most attractive aspect of living in a country that respects freedom of speech. Now, the PC brigade wants to put everyone's head under water to help vulnerable people from hurt. The intention is noble but the consequence is terrible. There will be hateful, sinister speech intended to encourage violence against others, but you have to fight that with words not with a hand pushing the head under the water. That only make them look the victim.

The UK's attitudes to speech and critical discourse seem a right mess now. Agree we need to be vigilant against this in NZ. We see related issues springing up across the spectrum.

First: Undermining / silencing expertise
There's a worthwhile book Silencing Science that looks at the situation experts face in NZ:

…leading scientist Shaun Hendy finds that in New Zealand, the public obligation of the scientist is often far from clear and that there have been many disturbing instances of scientists being silenced. Experts who have information the public seeks, he finds, have been prevented from speaking out. His own experiences have led him to conclude that New Zealanders have few scientific institutions that feel secure enough to criticise the government of the day.

Not only in NZ, but there's certainly widespread undermining of expertise (even on threads here) in favour of talkback wisdom, to the detriment of critical discourse and our society. Undermining of expertise is dangerous to robust, fact-based discourse that is critical to our society. All across the political spectrum the results are "my opinion is just as valid as your facts".

Second: Silencing speech in favour of commercial or political interest

Witness complaints from NZ academics regarding pressure to pass those who have not reached standards (or those who cheat outright and do not deserve to be passed, because education is being treated firstly as a commercial export sector. This corrupts the tertiary sector and undermines the value of universities.

Then see the attitudes of the Chinese Communist Party to free speech in other countries, their demands that people leave their domestic affairs to them whilst engaging in pressuring free speech and action in other countries.

Third: Cancel Culture
A major and evolving issue. Companies and individuals are free to engage in business with whomever they wish, and equating of declining to do so as Orwellian is a bit odd. But the tendency of some groups in society to try to silence "undesirable" speech through intimidation and attacking of folks' livelihood and career is deplorable. E.g. the current attacks on Germaine Greer and JK Rowling for holding unacceptable opinions on what it means to be a woman. Not to mention the incident of race-based cancelling of an academic's career at Evergreen University.

These tendencies highlight the importance of anonymity on the internet, as without it free discourse is constrained by such threats.

Just received that book from the public library. If it is half as well written as his other books I'm in for a treat. Does NZ have a more internationally respected academic??

Is the Chinese factory PMI reported by the National Bureau of Statistics? I'm just wondering how it can be increasing. Surely it's not domestic consumption because it can't be exports in the current climate.


The west today will become Hong Kong / China tomorrow - the west needs to unite on pushing back the authoritarian advance of the CCP.

by looking at the US, I'd say there is no much left for the west to be proud of.

on the other hand, it would be the west fortune to become as peaceful, orderly, dynamic, and strategic as China.

I think Jullila's comment above was meant for you


Yeah, smashing a population into submission has always been such a wonderful thing to do


Thanks Xing for pointing out how people can become brainwashed to us.
I will do my best to eliminate made in China from my purchases to help your people regain control of their lives.


You know, I look forward to Xingmo's comments.

He really believes that spouting the same nonsense each day will get us to sympathize with him.

It's an example of the shallow depth of competence when it comes to China's PR efforts with the rest of the world.

A truly effective PR effort would have us on board with China by now, but instead the rest of the world is looking at them with suspicion.

A PR disaster you might say.

All I know is that China hasn't done anything bad to me personally while the West grows more clownish and frightening by the hour.


Good job having the foresight not to be born a Uighur.

I feel currently the dangers lie closer to home. We should also not have allowed Western agencies to try and foment rebellion in Hong Kong and Western China.

Just what on earth is it you seek? I recall you all a-flutter over Donald Trump in 2016! Tip, you might find some of desires fulfilled at the hands of Madame Lash.

Zach, I'd suggest the rebellion was inevitable from the day the Brits handed HK back to the Chinese. The two Governments are literally polar opposites, democracy v authoritarian dictatorship, and the generations born before the handover will have told the youth what it was like, and the youth being human are saying why not now? Do you think the west fermented the Tianamen Square uprising? I don't think the west had to do anything, even silence could be seen as tacit approval. Active material support is not been shown to occur, but political support through expressing public disapproval of the CCPs actions has occurred. The CCP has a serious problem on it's hands, and it is a problem of their own making out of an irrational need for absolute control. In time this will bite them.

Do you think the west fermented the Tianamen Square uprising?

The mystery report was very likely the work of U.S. and British black information authorities ever keen to plant anti-Beijing stories in unsuspecting media.Link

Same tactics today

No doubt there are some myths and mis or disinformation about what actually happened, but that was not my question. Did any of the western powers ferment the uprising?


"Foment"? Or Forment? I looked up both (in a moment of brain blip), for... and fer... the dictionary said ferment?

You can just get away with ferment however usually used for brewing. Foment is classier. Forment is not a word.

I take it very personal that any human right movement, any pro-democracy movement in any country is automatically linked to US and the UK generating things. Sure, like any other local event, foreign powers may try to influence parties (by helping them or opposing them) when they consider this to be helping their interests. But that does not mean they created the force behind the local movement. Divide and rule is often associated with the UK foreign policy when the UK was a colonial power. But even when you can argue that the policy was used, the dividing force was not one of the UK making (like religious differences or other ethnic fault lines).
Democratic values and human rights are for mankind. They can inspire people from many different parts of the world. The tank guy in Tainmen, was showing bravery to stop tanks from killing defenseless protesters.
Even if foreign powers are involved in creating the initial sparks (as your link suggests) the sparks must be made close to a very dry, very vast, forest to cause a massive fire.

Interesting link.

China is most likely going to be the worlds new super power, if it isn't already after this COVID saga. We had the opportunity to standup to them over the previous decade/s, but we were more interested in becoming wealthy from/via them (trade, international students, selling our houses to them), than we were to take ethical stands against what the CCP stood/stands for. Likely too late to turn that around now as China has too much influence, so again we will have to sleep in the bed we've made. We've made a monster stronger than it would have otherwise have been - primarily due to financial self interest. Now we don't want it to bully us around. I find that quite amusing.

The UK and US, Canada and Australia also gave assistance to separatists in Hong Kong and Western China. Such action was unlikely to be without consequence. that you? Have you hijacked Zach's account..? Or are you using mind control..?

He's either been hacked or staring down the end of a rifle.

Even NZ has taken in Uighur refugees. Is that 'assistance' to separatists?

We got too close to China but it's never too late to turn back.
Sure that will cost us now - but keeping on will just keep getting worse. Classic bully.

Well any food you have consumed which was grown & packed in China could contain any number of things may not feel the outcomes yet.

I only eat food grown in my own hydroponic garden.

Most real estate agents share the same view. Sell one's soul to the highest bidder.

Xing do read these wise words of arguably one of your true leaders Deng Xiaoping.

The time has come - Deng Xiaoping

The very fact that you are not at risk to be imprisoned for life for your comments here in NZ is a testament of the difference between the West and the CCP-run China.

China is the Devil!

It must be defeated

Seemingly confusing trends in US Covid incidence.
Daily reported cases up from around 30,000 daily early mid April to around 40,000 per day now.
Daily reported deaths down from around 2,000 daily early mid April to around 500 per day now.
Is this due to increased testing?

Yes I noticed this too... the drug dexamethasone a steroid is helping I think.
"Had the drug had been used to treat patients in the UK from the start of the pandemic, up to 5,000 lives could have been saved, researchers say."

It could be changes to the 'cause of death' reporting by Drs. When you have such high rates of infection not everyone who dies will do so as a result of the virus. The only way to truly determine it, unless they died in hospital of acute respiratory distress, would be autopsy and I'm pretty sure they aren't doing that for all those who died.

The CDC estimates that they've only detected ~10% of covid cases in the US based on community antibody testing, so more testing is very likely to find more cases even if the virus isn't becoming more prevalent. They are now testing ~4x as much as in the original 'peak'.

However, this does not explain the big spike in cases forming the last couple of weeks. Testing has been relative flat across the US over June while detected cases has doubled. Things are getting dramatically worse right now, and a spike in deaths will lag the spike in cases by 2-3 weeks. It is, however, difficult to compare to the original peak due to higher testing and possibly a more dispersed case load rather than being concentrated in NY. This might help keep it manageable, but it does not look good right now and will only get worse until lockdowns return or measures like masks become politically acceptable.

"However, this does not explain the big spike in cases forming the last couple of weeks." Turns out holding an ANTIFA flag wasn't protection from the virus after all.

"The threat to Covid control from protesting outside is tiny compared to the threat to Covid control created when governments act in ways that lose community trust. People can protest peacefully AND work together to stop Covid.

Any evidence that the protests were a significant cause of the spike, versus the general opening up of the economy, relaxation of lockdown, reluctance to wear masks, and the return of political rallies?

I haven't seen any but happy to be corrected. I'm certainly not condoning crowded protests during a pandemic, but I think there's plenty of blame to go around here and more of it belongs with Politicians than Protesters.

I've not seen any, but there's evidence to suggest that the increasing rate in the US is happening in hotter places right now - when it's hot people stay inside with air conditioning to stay cool, and being inside seems to be a big risk factor in transmitting the virus.

Contrast that to the protests, which while high density and crowded, were almost all in open-air spaces outdoors.

viruses tend to get less deadly over time - assymptotic cases/strains are favoured by evolution (as hosts don't get locked down).
treatment protocols also improve, and there is more testing (ideally need >100x as many tests as detected cases to make sure you are catching nearly all of them)

Except there is a "G" mutation taking over the world that appears to be making it more infectious. It is deadly enough but with it spreading easier that is problematic.

From what I read viruses tend to get more infectious and more deadly such as the Spanish Flu which killed more and a younger portion of the population in the second wave.
As always now days, for every articial you read there is another saying the opposite.. No one knows is where it's at I'm guessing.

Not only that but we could be seeing a new strain of flu emerging from China. BBC Flu virus with 'pandemic potential' found in China. "It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say. The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.
While it is not an immediate problem, they say, it has "all the hallmarks" of being highly adapted to infect humans and needs close monitoring."

OH JOY, it just gets better.

The spanish flu was an unusual outlier. The normal trend is for illnesses to become more infectious but less deadly, via natural selection. That's also why most ebola outbreaks tend to burn out quickly, because they kill too many of their hosts too quickly and with extremely obvious symptoms.

One theory as to why the spanish flu 2nd wave was so much deadlier, especially amongst people in the 10-30 year age group which was very unusual (flu normally kills children, especially under 5, and the elderly), is that it started in the trenches in WW1. Those who become very ill with it were taken back to military hospital camps, and eventually back to their home countries where they could spread it around. Meanwhile those who were less ill stayed in the trenches and 'dealt with it'. This unusual behaviour of humans preferentially spread the severe strain of the illness farther than it normally would be.

The Spanish Flu and the Great Depression (major economic event ) once in a hundred year events you could say.
How long ago were they again.

The infection rate went down fairly sharply in between to arround the 18k per day mark. The new spike of 40k per day has only happened in the last 5 or so day and most likely a result of the riots and the relaxing of the Lock Downs. Typically the time from symptoms to death is on average 14 days, we should see death rates spike higher in a week to two. If they remain at a much lower rate, it will show if the new treatments are effective or not.
It is very concerning that infection rates have doubled in two weeks. Logic says these will grow even higher upto the 100k mark per day in the next two to three weeks. It is out of control in the States now and they can not afford extensive LD's this time arround.
With rent / loan defaulters in the US at 30% this month and higher infections, we are in for a very rough ride.

Infection rate data is pretty worthless - most countries are only catching a small, and highly variable proportion of actual infections. Infection fatality rate is somewhere around 0.5% for most populations, so when you see reported 5-10% CFR you know they are missing 10-20x as many cases as they detect. US deaths currently around 500 a day, though admittedly it's a lagging indicator by several weeks, but that's about a quarter of their April peak and suggests about 100k a day being infected. Guess we will see in another week or two

Possible delay between increased rate of infection and numbers v deaths. Takes a while for virus to kill

It was an average of 14 days from the first sign of symptoms to death. We're looking at another 7 or so days till we see a large spike upwards.

Hot off the press.
New York City Department of Health: "On June 30, the count of New Yorkers who have died of COVID-19 increased by 692. Most of that increase is due to new information we received from the NYS Department of Health about city residents who died outside the city. The vast majority of these deaths occurred more than three weeks ago." Worldometer has adjusted New York State history accordingly.

A big part of it is due to who is becoming infected. There's evidence now that many cases are amongst the younger cohort who are less likely to die from it. Should be obvious as to why - those who are in the riskiest demographics are taking it seriously and avoiding exposure.

Fauci also highlighted that deaths were likely under reported, and just as with pneumonia deaths in other years there is also a reporting lag. So it's possible that earlier figures have been adjusted upward as more data have rolled in.

Probably 3 things - more testing, they're getting better at treatments and also it can take a long time to die - you can linger on a ventilator for many weeks.

Imagine the screaming skulls if this happened in New Zealand
Last night on TVNZ-1 news, Daniel Andrews, Victorian Premier, announces total lock-down of 6 ethnic suburbs in Melbourne where CV-19 infections have exploded. Broadcast then cuts to Tullamarine Airport with a massive military C33 airtransporter painted dark grey on the tarmac, disgorging military personnel armed to the teeth

What's a C33? Do you mean a C17?

Maybe there was nearly two of them


How ten years ago, those of us warning of the intentions of the Chinese govt were labelled xenophobes

How true, but then awareness awakens as to the political intent of the CCP, and the only effective way to resist is through what amounts to be xenophobia. It is a shame our politicians are so gullible and self-serving.


10 years ago there was still reason for optimism - China was gradually liberalizing. Then Xi came to power and jammed PRC progress into reverse.

Yes it was, but Shanghai Pengxin purchase of Crafar Farms signaled to those able to put 2 and 2 together, what the long term plan was.

Wool reaches new lows. You guys should buy some store it and wait for the market to turn, i've been waiting 40 years but the boom is getting closer every day. I could sell you some of mine.


Spoke to a farmer the other day. $100k sharing costs and he would be lucky to get $50k back from selling it.
As a builder I hate installing the pink insulation but it's cheaper. I wish we had a viable wool option on the shelves. Glass fiber products are not good for the environment and hazardous to breathe in. I think it is going to be the next asbestos in the future. If the Greens had any brains they would be plugging wool insulation instead of attempting to be a socialist party adding tax.
Or NZF plugging it but then it dosent fit with their plan to convert NZ too a massive pine forest and making the soil acidic and useless for a long time after.

Or maybe the farmers themselves could set up their own marketing push instead of relying on the government to do it for them.

They should but what needs to be pointed out is that Labour, Greens and NZF are off on a tangent and not preforming.

Farmers do, you don't think we get disastrous prices like this without paying the marketing guys do you?

Too many fleecing the sheep and taking more than than the initial producer.

Have you forgotten - back in the 1980's the government bailed out the sheep farmers, taking all their wool at $6.50 kg and stock-piled it for years. Can't remember what happened to the stock-pile. But the sheep-farmers have had their once in a life-time bail-out. Doesn't look as though they are going to get another one

I wish that was the case for banks.

You forgot to mention the SMPs vote catcher by Muldoon, simultaneous compulsory acquisition of sheepmeat by the Meat Board, cost the then tax payers in excess of $NZ 2 billion.

Oh yeah I forgot about that.

In Australia, first home buyers and recent homeowners face higher risks of default due to higher borrowing and low savings, according to ANZ.

And yet Australia commits to MAGA - buys substandard, subsonic missile technology.

An omission in that document. It makes no mention of submarines. The Aussies are working to get a French sub replacement for it Collins Class, but I hear that that process has gone off the rails and blowing out in cost. thy're probably trying to keep that cock up secret, as the US offered one of their designs at very good prices.

The US build smaller because of no social distancing requirements.

Around 2008 Australia signed an agreement with Lockheed Martin to join in the development with UK and Canada and US of the F-35 JSF Joint Strike Fighter. Austrelia's share from memory $50 billion or more. They are still waiting for it. Search for Robert Gottliebsen and his scathing writings on it. Apparently it is so heavy and so slow it is no match for the Russian Sukhoi twin jet fighter

Just recently a number of F35 users have begun dialling their commitment back, including the US military, as the evident life cycle costs are coming out a lot higher than initially thought. The consequences of an over politicised military leadership. The 50's, 60's, and 70's model of acquisition produced better results for a lot less money

The people in Japan have put up with two dozen QE’s including three different versions of QQE, and the lack of growth in the economy none of them could turn around. Imposing a deep recession, however, is a categorically different story. Already deeply pessimistic about an upside that may no longer exist, that doesn’t mean anyone will just accept a possibly deep downside with protracted negative pressures. Link

Latest insights from George Gammon/Brent Johnson - USD/inflation/swap lines etc.

When there's 'free' money about, best those who can grab as much of it as they can. If they don't, someone else will...
"Social media star Edna Swart initially wanted to raise a maximum of $954,000 at $1.06 per share for ed&i"

3 in 10 Americans Missed Their Housing Payments in June.
They have until the end of the month to pay but it smells bad. I wouldn't surprised that quite a few are playing the new addictive online gaming platform, Robinhood to pick up a few percent in gains. A drop of a few percent would throw the cat amongst the pigeons and cause a mass spiral.

30% is massive! Where there is smoke, there is fire and that is more than a bit of smoke.

It is True that all Business as well as most individuals truly believes : The Tax Payers To Bail Them Out.

So are taking unnecessary risk in running the business or buying stock and houses despite the risk involved in current environment. Feeling is that government has more at risk (losing election) if company / individual goes down than individual as a result have opened the Mint to print money as long as needed to support.

Current economy/boom as a result is not based on fundamental but based on belief that come what may government will print and support.

I heard John Key speaking on RNZ last night. He certainly seemed to hold an innate belief that taxpayers should bail out companies from risk they face during tough times. I think it was a very sincerely held didn't seem like he's thought long and deeply about it.

There's tough times and then there's a government mandated shutdown of the entire economy and cashflow cycle. If that was a regular occurrence then I'd agree it is a foreseeable risk, but many found out the hard way that pandemics aren't covered by Business Interruption insurance. Perhaps assistance should have been tied to whether you maintained BIC prior to the Lockdown?

False dichotomy repeated again. It's not a choice between a lockdown and economic downturn vs. no lockdown and no downturn. The Fed even highlighted that experience from past epidemics suggested places that used stricter isolation and non-medical interventions achieved better economic outcomes than those that did not shut down. Surely you're not arguing that a rampant virus and poorly executed mitigation measures would achieve decent economic outcomes.

Taleb was certainly at pains to point out that a global pandemic is a foreseeable event.

Sorry I posted the wrong link above on the 'whoops you were not meant to notice'

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