Jobs the weakness in factory rebound; US car sales weak; China expands while others contract; Aussie house prices slip; UST 10yr yield at 0.68%; oil firm but gold soft; NZ$1 = 64.7 USc; TWI-5 = 69.5

Jobs the weakness in factory rebound; US car sales weak; China expands while others contract; Aussie house prices slip; UST 10yr yield at 0.68%; oil firm but gold soft; NZ$1 = 64.7 USc; TWI-5 = 69.5

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that the economic bouncebacks have been rather weak and probably not enough to withstand a renewed virus surge.

Advance data for this weekend's American non-farm payroll release shows another recovery in jobs in June. Recall they fell more than -19 mln in April, recovered +3.1 mln in May, and now this June report suggests another +2.4 mln jobs were recovered in the past month. That is a net loss of -14 mln jobs in the past 90 days. But the bounceback isn't as strong as analysts had expected (+3 mln in June).

American car sales took a big tumble in the April-June quarter, with GM reporting a -34% fall, similar at Ford and the Japanese brands, and almost -40% at Fiat/Chrysler.

There are two June PMI reports out today for the US. The local ISM one says the US factory sector expanded slightly in June on rising orders. The internationally benchmarked Markit one says it contracted in a minor way, also held up by new order growth. Both however reported lower employment. Either way, it is a very weak bounceback on the factory floor.

In Europe, they had a PMI bounceback too, but it was weaker and is still contracting. Only France and Ireland are expanding. Germany is contracting quite fast still, mainly because it has been so export-dependent.

Globally, the story is similar. China is a bit of an outlier, as overall global recovery is very much being held back by Asian countries. But the better China data may pull them up and out of their slump.

In China, their private sector Caixin PMI pointed to a definite recovery in manufacturing conditions, with firms signalling a further rise in production and a renewed increase in total new business. This version has outperformed the official version again.

News about China is getting more difficult to verify because Beijing is expelling reporters who provide independent coverage and do not toe the Party line. And in Hong Kong, masked police arrested hundreds on the first day Beijing's new security law came into force. But despite this, thousands braved the streets to protest, an action that now requires a whole new level of personal bravery. As a lifeline, the UK has thrown open its doors to up to 3 mln Hong Kongers who want to escape. Beijing probably won't mind as it will undermine the strength of their opponents in the City if large numbers take up the offer.

Australian manufacturing conditions showed a modest improvement in June, according to the headline PMI figure, as the country relaxed its lockdown measures. However, firms were reluctant to invest in new capacity, and instead reduced employment and input purchasing in June to contain costs. All the same, the result was an expansion. The new return of lockdowns in Victoria won't help their July PMI however.

In Australia, property values have dropped for a second month in a row and picked up in pace as uncertainty builds about the financial plunge expected to come in September. And building approvals fell sharply in May, led down by a collapse in apartment consents.

The collapse of air travel in May is revealed in the latest data, especially international travel. Less than 2% of travelers remain from the levels of a year ago. Air cargo has been hit very hard too, but at least it is operating at a 20% level.

The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 10,512,400 and up +146,000 in a day. Global deaths reported now exceed 512,000 and rising by about +8000 per day.

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +28,000 since yesterday to 2,638,300. US deaths now exceed 127,000. The number of active infections in the US is now up to 1,790,200, up +11,500 in a day.

In Australia, there have been 7,920 cases, another +86 since yesterday and a fast-rising tide, especially in Victoria. Their death count is still at 104 but their recovery rate has slipped back to now 89%. There are now 753 active cases in Australia (up +60 overnight).

Wall Street is still in positive territory today, up +0.6% in afternoon trade. That follows modest falls in Europe overnight. Yesterday, Shanghai has a very good day, up +1.4% while Hong Kong was up +0.4%. Tokyo however dropped -0.8%. The ASX200 was up +0.6% but the NZX50 retreated -0.9% on the day.

The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps to 0.68%. Their 2-10 curve is holding at +52 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +15 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is marginally steeper at +55 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 0.95%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.89%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is back up +4 bps at 0.98%.

The gold price has slipped back after yesterday's high, down -US$10 to US$1,771/oz.

Oil prices have firmed marginally today. They are now just under US$40/bbl in the US and the Brent price is just over US$42/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is a little firmer again, now just on 64.7 USc. On the cross rates we are up as well, now at 93.7 AUc and against the euro we are firmer at 57.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has risen to 69.5.

The bitcoin price has firmed a little overnight, up +1.6% to US$9,295. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

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98 Comments

Even more dreadful than COVID-19....

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-53218704

When Yogi Berra exclaimed it’s déjà vu all over again, he was on to something alright

And autopsies are showing the damage COVID is doing to bodies. Whatever you do, do not for one moment believe that no matter how healthy and fit you are, or you lifestyle is, you will get out unscathed if you catch it. The 'G' mutation spreads into new hosts much easier and better than the initial version, so not eliminating it will have serious health consequences for everyone who catches it.

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Aye, the death toll is only part of the real toll. It’s like using our road toll to assess our driving standards. Is not a collision between two cars leaving paraplegics and amputations a more meaningful statistic than the death of a sole driver? In those figures of active and recovered CV19s there will be countless with the remainder of lives drastically altered and impacting on health systems globally.

Great analogy. I'm sure everyone knows at least 1 person that has lifelong ailments from car crash injuries.

On top of this - I can only imagine the impact of the mounting medical debt that will face many in the US who survive it.

Very scary, Ben 22. Not strange that these viruses starting point is in China. Their wealthy and educated people will departing for other countries, if they can get there funds out, just like in Hong Kong. How can the UK take 3M residents from Hong Kong, as stated by David the editor. I realise they feel obligated because of their past but where are they going to locate them and are they going to bring Covid plus with them.

Two sources from the USA are telling me that Mortality Displacement is now showing up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement

Be nice since this is a news site that this would be looked into.

If you want them to look into it further wouldnt you provide them with those sources?

Depends on whether they want to be journalists and go to the base source themselves. I'm quoting people that know, one in particular I trust highly and don't need to second guess him. He is a professor so it his job to find stats, just like it is a journalists jobs to find stats (full stats, and before they report). It isn't my job, I'm a reader and sometimes informant.

So that's a 'no', then..

I'm not the one publishing incomplete data( the covid death count I warned was propaganda). Shows your ability in statistics/economics if you think this is okay. Also speaks of your general nature that you snipe for the sake of sniping. Low caliber all around.

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Talking to a friend who has a mate in NY who is a nurse. She says it's really bad, worse effected are the lower social ecnomic group, smokers and anyone with underlying health concerns. Wasn't being reported but slowly coming out now.
I'm no expert but when I see a digger at work creating mass graves with box after box going in, I've got a fair idea that death rates are spiking. Some are saying that those boxes do not contain bodies, that's a very elaborate ruise if you ask me.

What is the propaganda? Out of curiosity, I've just counted the number of reported coronavirus deaths from the countries that contribute to the Euromomo data and compared to the approximate excess mortality (very rough figures from the all-ages data).

I make it 175k reported deaths, versus excess mortality of approximately 165k. Much better correlation than I thought, and suggesting that the reported coronavirus deaths in Europe at least is actually quite reasonable. Do you have data that says otherwise, or is it different in other parts of the world?

I made a parallel to the Vietnam war where the overriding narrative that made the war acceptable to the US public was expressed by publishing a daily body count. As long as more Vietcong were killed in proportion to US soldiers it must be good right? It was mind manipulation towards a end. Ask yourself what is the end with Covid-19, it is propaganda at play so there must be one.

Mortality displacement means it really isn't excess mortality. You've at least gone a layer deeper, what I'm saying is the publishing the numerator without the denominator is really irresponsible and pretty much a meaningless fact.

Well, it's a very easy stat for tracking what the disease is doing - certainly for judging whether it's getting better or worse to inform lockdowns and other actions. Much more difficult to say how many of them would have died anyway and distinguish between 'unexpected' and 'brought forward' deaths. Will be much easier in retrospect.

Personally, I look at the spike in the European data and find it quite clear that without the strong actions taken, there would have been very dramatic loss of life. Based on reports from Hospitals in Italy and the UK, the healthcare situation would have been completely unacceptable to a Western country with patients across the continent unable to access Hospitals (regardless of whether they had coronavirus or unrelated health issues)

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So what's the point in making these claims if you aren't going to share your sources?
It is in fact you who was sniping at the interest journalists for not pursuing what is essentially hearsay.

It is fine to link incomplete sources as long as they are stated that way.
To think the opposite is in fact a reflection of your incompetence...If we never used incomplete data series, probably 90% of applied research would never happen.

The reason I am asking is because I am actually involved in similar research at the moment and the transmission mechanism is not clear as to what is driving any changes in mortality (if any). In fact, there is probably greater support that the resultant adverse economic consequences are the primary mechanism for any 'mortality displacement' and not the mortality rate of the infection, itself.
Hence why I am especially interested in who this american professor is who is feeding you the info as he is very much pursuing a similar agenda to what we are.

Grabs popcorn.

I've shared this before, but here is the equivalent European data. All age mortality spent a few weeks ~40-50% higher than the normal range and has now returned to normal after successful lockdowns. I'd be interested in the US data, but haven't actively searched for it.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Has been there for some time. FT and the economist have both done analyses.

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There is such a temptation for all of us in this era of pandemic uncertainty to cling on to whatever scant news, theories or data we come across, isn't there? The human brain always wants to make sense as quickly as possible and invest in stories and theories that offer comfort and a sense of control. My brain did the same.

Scientists should of course be monitoring for Mortality Displacement and I would guess, it will show up most profoundly in winter (if the virus is still at large by then). But as with everything else, it is still much, much too early to be clinging to one school of thought over another. We simply cannot know and predict a novel virus. It's not even a year old.

In the face of the unknowable, I think NZ did the absolutely most sensible thing. Bought time. For all we know, people who have been infected and recovered will have serious long term repercussions from the virus that will pose a decades long additional burden on health care budgets. For all we know, it could have serious effects on babies in-utero (the virus hasn't even been around long enough for us to have data over the course of a pregnancy and for us to have been able to track a woman infected before or during a pregnancy, over the 9 months and then to monitor the child development).

But even at this stage, we have more knowledge than we did, especially on treatment. So if in the months to come, if NZ does have a resurgence of the virus, we will be significantly better prepared than we would have been back in March. Treatment is improving all the time. It always does with trial and error.

I do wish commentators on this site would stop politicising the issue. There are aspects that are political to it of course. The countries that have allowed the pandemic to become a political ping pong, are having a significantly worse time of it. NZ isn't perfect, but I would wager that almost any other country in the world would rather be in the position we are now.

I have seen box after box going into the ground on video. My brain says, 'bloody hell, there's something that you dont see eveyday' from that I do my own quick study and find that a shite load of people are dying and normal practices of burial can not cope.
File that and look at the other side of the argument..
It is all an elaborate ruise/ fake news and those boxes do not contain bodies. Yeah, that's a bit 'flat earth' for my brain to swallow.
Conclusion... A very high probability that a hell of a lot of people are dying and a small chance I'm being BS'ed.
The death numbers maybe offset by less people dying in other ways, such as less car crashes, common cold etc but to allow it to run rampant through the community will only increase the death rate well above what it is now.

My position from the outset has been consistent. One is you don't have Police and the Health Ministry acting unlawfully and trashing civil rights, more so for something you don't know about. If the Health Act had been used as it was intended as a management tool I'm confident there would be better overall outcomes. The Health Act is predominantly about the collection of information, and the right for access to test in that job, so that we do know.

You are trading something we do know, civil rights, for something we don't know. Doesn't really matter what the excuse, you simply don't go there.

Second thing I've been consistent about is that the way to fight this is for people to live a healthy lifestyle. That is for people to take personal responsibility, to do what they can personally do rather than worrying about someone else to save them. Eat well ( get off refined foods), sleep well, exercise, lower stress levels, get out in the sun and get vitamin D...... I'm still seeing nothing of this in any media. One side of the equation is being totally ignore.

Let food be thy medicine and let medicine be thy food

That's a lovely notion scarfie but unfortunately despite all the many millions spent on health promotion in every country in the world for decades, people still choose to partake in unhealthy lifestyles. You say "lower stress" as if that is easy or possible. You say "get off refined foods" as if there isn't a billion dollar industry with psychologists on the roll constantly working at new ways to keep people buying it, whilst also ignoring our hard wired evolutionary adaption to seek out these highly palatable foods and experience dopamine hits when we eat them. The media is constantly bombarding people with information about "healthy lifestyles" and yet, unsurprisingly we don't live in the healthy utopia you seem to suggest is easily achievable. And then what happens when you do allow 100% personal responsibility? We let children and the vulnerable suffer for the freedom and burden of "personal responsibility" of their parents? Or numerous other caveats that fatally flaw the notion of health vs personal responsibility where the health and behaviour of one person fundamentally harms or impinges on the health of another.

The world has experimented with all kinds of governmental and legal structures. All the way from next to no government intervention to extreme hierarchy and authoritarianism. Neither extremes produced sustained well being in their populations over history. Shocking I know, but it appears something more moderate, in the middle ground tends to produce the happiest, healthiest and wealthiest societies, which means a little bit of paternalism tends to be quite beneficial.

I'd say lockdown is at the extreme and nowhere near the middle.

So regarding the healthy lifestyles are you saying stop trying to save people who don't want to be saved?

Was talking to someone from Special Ed last night, talk of Feotal Alcohol and P Babies. You can't save everybody. But human nature at some level for people to try. There is the ESFJ personality that can't help themselves afterall. Trashing civil rights to do it is losing objectivity IMO.

That is not at all what I suggested. My point was that managing society is extraordinarily complex. There is a constant struggle between the needs of the individual and the needs of the community and how those two interplay changes all the time. The polls taken on the NZ lockdown showed that people were universally in favour of it. The action had a huge majority support. In countries and states where the people haven not been with their governments policy on the pandemic, we have seen widespread civil unrest. Predictably. And whatever freedoms were temporarily given up during the lockdown have been returned and had they not been, we probably would have seen civil unrest here too. All this is fairly evident and predictable.

Any science or policy that only deals with one side of the equation exclusively is junk, period.

If we set the law based on popular opinion at the time rather than logical reasoning it wouldn't be very useful. It has to be firmly rooted in principles. Principles don't change, that is the whole point of them. You take away a mans freedom you take away his ability to work, the basis of freedom is rooted in the crime of theft. Those doing the locking down are criminals, i've minced my words on that enough. I really hope individual Police get sued, I know there are lawyers keen to represent them.

You are incorrect, the civil freedoms lost were written into a new law to make them legal in hindsight (guilty knowledge). I've been led to believe they've been amended again to include the military along with Police and Health Officers that can come into your home without warrant. The principle that has been lost forever is that a mans home is his castle. Even if the supposedly temporary act become so, it will be easy to do it again given how even some supposedly smart people can rationalise themselves out of their civil rights. I can't actually believe you'd bring in popular opinion to this.

The needs of the majority was always on quicksand with this one. Wait until the early morbidity kicks in for those under 65's that become unemployed. While the unemployment rate we'll hit isn't known, one thing that is known in amongst all this is the mortality increase for an unemployed worker. Kill people to save people, if we'd changed the slogan to that then I wonder if people would have been so happy about it. We'll see how happy they all are in a couple of years.

People who know better for others are dangerous.

There is also a temptation GN for specialists in a field to get involved because it is what they do. Or more importantly the temptation is to think they know better. What has happened with Covid-19 that I have seen in the psychology is resorting to what they know. I'm specifically talking about scientists and medical professionals who have been all over this and from what I've seen been particularly badly behaved. In fact they've thrown any sort of rational thinking out the window. Chris Martensen has described it as a lack of integrity, those unwilling to budge from their position even when the facts are putting that position in question.

Scientists got dragged into the limelight and got shot at power. First thing they did was totally abuse that power and lock everyone down.

This was never a situation where a specialist should have been making decisions, it needed a generalist. It needed a leader with a wider view of the world, someone not suffering myopia because of their specialty or those blinded by the specialist.

It isn't the only bad behaviour btw, I've so far defined four types so far.

You are painting a lovely picture of some idealised society that we don't have and as far as I am aware, has never existed. Human beings are human beings, a mixed bag of traits. We have never been some kind of perfect animal. We have democracy and it doesn't produce perfect leadership. We have academic structures and it doesn't produce perfect experts. We have tried different types of democracy and different types of academic structures and we didn't ever get perfect leaders or experts then either. Sometimes things are better, sometimes worse and luck and/or unforeseeable circumstances usually play a huge role in all outcomes. But also, if you think you know how everything could be better run why don't you become a politician or a scientific expert? Personally, i think the armchair scientists are far more dangerous in an age of instant social media, bearing in mind the human brains weakness for herding behaviour, bias and irrationality.

Markets are the new Cirque du Soleil

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China is reverting to form .

We should not have expected anything less from an authoritarian state that fears its population

Boatman,

Serious question. How should we-our government and businesses-react to what is happening in HK? Should the government threaten to break off diplomatic relations unless this crackdown is halted? Should companies like Fonterra and Comvita pull out? Should we stop taking Chinese students? Could we afford to take such measures? Now more than ever, we need theses export revenues.

It is crystal clear that China is becoming more repressive, so again, how should we react? However distasteful, I do not believe that we can act in any meaningful way on our own. Any serious push back would have to be as part of a coalition and I don't see that happening.

you and many others should travel to China and get your first hand experience which I am sure will be the total opposite of what you see and read from the western media.

then, you will start to worry about how to build a better and deeper relationship with China.

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Yes. I worry about doing that.

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Been to China many times. When in China do not listen to what you are told, but rather what they do.
If you ask Chinese expats on these sorts of topics in private a common response is: there is a reason I live in NZ

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Xing. I have been to China. I still think we should quietly disengage.

A stop over in Hong Kong while on a trip to EU does not count.

I have been living in NZ for more than 2 decades and this makes me love both China and NZ more and more.

I remember going to Hong Kong about 15 years ago and thinking how charming and surprisingly orderly it was.

I then crossed the border to go to Guangzhou. It was a disorderly shambles by comparison. I remember thinking this was the "Wild East".

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Xing. I'm perplexed. So you are saying that China is not engaging in sterilization, murders, suspension of the population, mass surveillance combined with cards that give you benefits if you act the way the Govt wants to act and all the rest. You are saying that this is all just fake news, if I am understanding you correctly. Please explain.

We learn supposedly from the bitter, savage and vile recordings of world history. As examples, Dachau 1933 , Kristallnact 1937 and for those today we could substitute Xinjiang and Hong Kong relatively. Anybody hazard a guess what will be the substitute for Czechoslovakia 1938. The world has stood too still, too silent, too often and then lived to rue the catastrophic consequences. Remember until Nixon thrust himself in there in the 1970s, the world was clicking along reasonably well without China or its products.

You didn't give examples of "our" history though. Is that because you haven't learned anything from the vile recordings of our history?

OK.Edit.

FG. 'what will be the substitute for Czechoslovakia 1938' - Tibet. Has already happened, the world looked the other way. Rhineland (HK) is in the process of being occupied (was sort of German anyway), Poland is Tawian.

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Xing never responds to hard questions - his circuit boards start to fry and his cap usually catches fire.

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We will have to let his silence will speak for itself then.
I'll just have to ask him everyday to respond. The one thing that bullies hate is for people to openly talk about what is going on. They live in a world of talking behind people's backs to create confusion undermining their victims.

Why blame Mr Xing as from here on it will be hard for China to respond to the world ((Only response will be threat and going offensive) and Mr Xing is just no exception.

That is always the first response when you confront a bully. They only back down once it is clear that the odds are stacked against them.

he is only obeying orders,as a soldier in the "50 cent army" they blanket the internet with blandly positive posts about their govt.

Kez, Xing would be guilty under the new laws under section 38 if I understand a news article I heard this morning, correctly. For that matter so would we. That section is about irrespective of where you are, bringing the CCP into disrepute (although I cannot see how pointing out a truth is achieving that), preaching sedition or separatism. Under these laws there is the potential that anyone from anywhere, passing through China could be having a somewhat uncomfortable conversation with authorities over an opinion expressed on the internet anywhere. If China chooses and expansionist policy well then they'll be coming to you one day! Recall Pastor Niemoller's quote;

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."

Xing has been asked directly to quash the media narrative that we hear in NZ. he has not responded and his silence tells us that he can not explain it and therefore it is a fact. I think he is in the 38 line before me.
For China to gain control over NZ, the US needs to fall. That will create a very dangerous situation of a lot of nukes in the hands of a country or separate States that are very scared with their hand on the fire button, with no other precevial way out in their view. The CCP 38 isn't the big issue.

It is a very long voyage and troopships have always been sitting ducks, but nowadays with the gps missiles, suicidal. And then Taiwan, Japan, Sth Korea could hardly be left unmolested in the rear. A seaboard invasion of even Taiwan is almost impossible given the treacherous Straits of Formosa. Military build up for anything on that scale cannot be hidden. No Pearl Harbour possible with all those satellites up there.

They won't be invaded, it would be a currency / social fragmentation implosion of the US.

Cometh the the hour, cometh the man (or woman) don’t seem to be anything on the horizon at all for the States in that category does there.Like you I see great troubles lying in wait for my friends over there. Very worrying.

Massive issues going down. A very scary scenario playing out.

I don't think in our current era we would see anyone stupid enough to try to physically invade either China or America. And why would you bother? You could destroy a country with advanced cyber warfare, disrupt or destroy their infrastructure and economy, block trade routes and access. And that's before you even get to drones, satellites, germ and nuclear warfare. As is very clear from Australia's recent announcement and has been obvious for some years now, the battlefield is being fought on the internet. Elections are being swayed, government and significant infrastructure services are being hacked.

FG. Yes, people brought up on saving private Ryan (which is still one of the best depictions of conventional landing craft invasion IMO) mostly have little understanding about how that type of attack has been rendered obsolete. Imagine if the Argentinians could have from their homeland launched hundreds of cruise missiles against the brits. Thatchers Malvinas invasion fleet would have been wiped out in a matter of hours.

I was flying in from Singapore sitting alongside a Greek Naval Attaché to NATO who was coming here for a commemoration of Crete. He told me then of the upshot of HMS Sheffield vs Exorcet (way too much aluminium.) Yes that is why Taiwan is a thorny one too. The Marines had no problems getting their ships off shore Pacific WW2, but the landings were never not precarious, even when the Japanese only initially offered light resistance on the beach heads. But you could not even assemble and sail, unnoticed and unmolested such fleets today. You can go all the way back to the two great episodes that saved the Japanese from invasion, the divine wind, to see how tricky and treacherous the seas in the vicinity of Taiwan are. Only a two or three month window. The beaches are obviously heavily fortified. Hard to see any invasion by the conventional military as we know it.

The Brits, and if they are smart the rest of the worlds navies, learnt some serious lessons in the Falklands War. As far as naval vessels are concerned they learned that aluminium, and supposedly inflammable hydraulic fluids do burn if you get them hot enough, bombs don't need to explode to cripple and sink ships, and supposedly inferior armed forces can inflict significant damage and casualties if their troops are dedicated enough irrespective of the age of their equipment, and luck doesn't necessarily favour the righteous.

And play school is brought to today by the numbers 3 & 8.
83 tones of gold plated copper from China.
https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/biggest-gold-fraud-breaks-in-ch...

$56,951.83 USD per kilo.
$56,951,830 USD per tone.
X's 83 tones is $4,727,001,890 USD of counterfeit gold pain and the ramifications of mistrust tenfold of that again.

How much longer can the South China Morning Post go on freely reporting on events like this? Surely they will soon get a visit from CCP goons for 'promoting hatred of the Chinese government or authorities in Hong Kong'

Linklater. We should quietly distance ourselves from China.

Agree, don't make a song and dance about it, as that just means that PRC has to respond with measures that hurt our economy to save face. But we, and the rest of the world should quietly pull back from engagement in whatever ways we can.

Oh, and offer citizenship to lots of Hong Kong residents, their courage marks them out as exceptional people, they will contribute strongly to any democracy they are a part of.

Foyle. 'quietly pull back from engagement' and 'offer citizenship to lots of Hong Kong residents' don't sit together all that harmoniously.

hi Boatmen

NZ govt should do all of what you state. break away completely from CCP. my heart goes to Hong Kong peoples.

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I doubt that the CCP would approve of millions of anti CCP Hong Hong people moving elsewhere because that would increase the level of hatred of Mainland China in countries where it is trying very hard to interfere and influence.

I wonder if investors think that by buying into Tesla means they are buying into SpaceX and other Elon Musk ventures?

I've been slowly unloading mine on the way up. I love Tesla but this valuation looks like madness to me.

Must have slipped through the OIO without a squeak. The big pension funds were always going to be a problem, slowly socialising production as every year more and more funds need investing.

What is the benefit to NZ of having a 25% overseas owner of a strategic asset? Will the Canadian owner so finance the purchase that they pay no tax in NZ on their share of profits? Financially selling the banks to the Aussies has been a disaster.

profits will go to Canadian pensioners, I always thought it was crazy, I also felt I was screaming into the void.

Yeah...and yet the common refrain from many quarters still seems to be that selling our assets is the path to prosperity.

Paying for the current account deficit. It's always regrettable that we import more than we export, especially so if the mortgage is extended to capitalise unearned, unrealised gains for foreign cars and holidays. Maybe those MMT folk can find a way out of this 40 year dilemma?

This confirms what I've been seeing. I check listings in a couple of the locations I like there (Bath, Edinburgh, etc.) and I'm seeing a lot more listings, and a lot more "price reduced on -". And UK house prices haven't shifted too much in either in recent years (since the Brexit vote). Starting to wonder whether we should be getting on the ladder back there.

A family member of mine has just received a cash offer on a house, in an area that has remained hot despite Brexit shenanigans, they accepted £15k below the asking price without hesitation. They are not under any illusions about the future of the housing market in the UK.

Aussie manufacturing PMI can't be counted as an indicator of economic recovery because this sector contributed a measly 5.5% to national GDP in 2019 as compared to construction, which is over 9% of GDP.
Moreover, building materials manufacturing has been fueling output and employment growth in the nation's industrial sector for the past few years.

So construction seems to be a better pulse-check of the Aussie economy.

Looking at Aussie house price non-movement and also anecdotal feedback form Agents in Auckland, there is little chance of anything other than small price falls pre September in Auckland. All economists agree that printing lots of money inflates property asset prices and the world is doing record QE right now. The only way that prices will fall more than 5% is if unemployment starts to jump big time and there are more forced sales. With all the subsidies and forbearance on mortgages til October, this is unlikely. As Keynes said, when the facts change, I change my mind. But I still see heavy price falls from October onwards, as world economic conditions and our own recession really kick in to high gear.

Yes I think that the money thrown at the "shovel ready projects" (horrendous phrase), is just shoveling it uphill. In most cases they are not targeting projects which will have a good positive financial payback. Future revenue.
In the scheme of things I think these jobs are a just a drop in a bucket. For example once house building starts seriously tanking.

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They should be called 'meat head' projects. There you go we are working hard, therefore we must be achieving something.

'shovel ready' means (in many cases) previously worked on but shelved due to low financial benefit.

Or long and slow financial benefit and we will not be elected when the results become obvious.

I swear I have accidentally reported almost every comment in this thread. Apologies to mods for my haphazard scrolling and clicking.

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"News about China is getting more difficult to verify because Beijing is expelling reporters..." right there, the rest is irrelevant

It's hard to rationalise China's behavior at present. Surely it is self-defeating?
The only way I can rationalise it is that Trump, and the anti-CCP rhetoric stirred by covid-19, is revving the CCP administration up, and they are doing these things out of spite.

Boris is back baby

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hong-kong-boris-johnson-pmqs-citizens...

Boris Johnson has pledged to extend the right of Hong Kong citizens to live and work in the UK after accusing China of a “clear and serious breach” of a treaty with Britain.

The Prime Minister confirmed Britain would open a pathway to citizenship for around Hong Kong British National (Overseas) passport holders following the introduction of China's new security law. The move could affect nearly three million people.

He better start building houses - or Auckland will look like a kids tea party.

Probably part of Johnson's intent.

Bravo. You want to fix china, give the young and educated there the opportunity to vote with their feet.

Boris Johnson has pledged to extend the right of Hong Kong citizens to live and work in the UK after accusing China of a “clear and serious breach” of a treaty with Britain.

#HongKong is part of China and Hong Kong affairs are China's internal affairs. The UK has no sovereignty, jurisdiction or right of “supervision” over Hong Kong whatsoever. Gone are the days when Hong Kong were under British colonial rule.Link

America benefited hugely from the exodus of many of Europe's greatest minds and talent in the late 1930's in the lead up and early stages of WW2. Some of the greatest skills and talent in Asia are in Hong Kong so the UK could benefit hugely from such an influx. But the infrastructure in the UK is already straining under decades of high immigration and austerity under investment, so it won't sit well with the British voting public if there is a big new wave of immigration but even bigger classroom sizes and longer NHS queues or more expensive houses. They need massive, massive infrastructure spending and then 10-20 years from now, post Brexit the UK could be having some kind of renaissance.

Some of the greatest skills and talent in Asia are in Hong Kong so the UK could benefit hugely from such an influx.
Will they leave their slaves behind or will there be room for them as well?

Funny how Hong Kong always manages to forget to tell the world that there are more than 400,000 young Filipino and Indonesian women working as "domestic helpers" but really "domestic slaves." On duty 160 hours per week. Earning less than $2 per hour, as 30% of their wages goes to the HK Chinese agency, who sold them to their masters.comment from this link

Hong Kong has an underclass, and inflicts 1000 times more civil rights abuses on these young women (many sexually abused) than what China is doing to them.

A massive play in the silver market in progress. The COMEX has orders for a hell of a lot of silver that need to delivered in physical. The price went up well over US $18 an Oz, back down to just under back again to above $18 and then below again now. The COMEX needs to drop the price to make a buck but it is looking like there are forces buying it up rising it again. Their spoofing is struggling to contain.

JP Morgan recently enquired with Perth Mint about purchasing 23.4 million ounces of silver ASAP.

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