US non-farm payrolls less-worse than expected; US trade deficit at new record; China vehicle sales rise; Wall Street heads for good gains; UST 10yr yield at 0.67%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 64.7 USc; TWI-5 = 70

US non-farm payrolls less-worse than expected; US trade deficit at new record; China vehicle sales rise; Wall Street heads for good gains; UST 10yr yield at 0.67%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 64.7 USc; TWI-5 = 70

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the Kiwi dollar is rising as equity markets rise.

The Americans are going into their long weekend holiday with some very mixed signals from their jobs market. First the good news: the June non-farm payrolls data reported stronger jobs growth than expected before the recent virus spike. A gain of +3 mln jobs was expected but this survey shows the gain was a stronger 4.8 mln in June. Their official jobless rate is now 11.1%. Their participation rate improved to a very low 61.5%. But that jobless rate is on the way to 14% before it shrinks permanently.

But the same survey reported that those who returned to work are being paid a lot less, and doing much reduced hours. Both factors reduced the average workweek and average pay in June. And this data means that there are almost 15 mln fewer people employed in June than February, with the part-time workforce double its February level.

The latest weekly unemployment claims data was also released overnight and that indicated a higher than expected level of claims last week with prior week's data revised higher. There are now 19.3 mln people on unemployment benefits and most are now more than half-way through what they can claim. From October on, they will drop off and things will get really tough if they can't find work. Their "insured unemployment rate" is currently 13.2% and well above the official rate. That doesn't bode well for July labour force data.

The New York ISM report released overnight is telling. Even though business expect conditions in six months to have fully recovered, the level of new orders remains weak and there was no expectation that these businesses have re-hiring plans.

International trade is still a problem for the US. Exports of both goods and services fell while imports were stable and that raised their overall trade deficit to its second highest in history. Clearly higher tariffs aren't a solution to this long-running problem.

But Wall Street is still in positive territory today, up +1.1% in afternoon trade and liking what it saw in the jobs data. They are ignoring the dodgy bits. European markets have made even larger gains today, up about +2.8% overnight. And yesterday both Shanghai (+2.1%) and Hong Kong (+2.9%) recorded outsized gains although Tokyo (+0.1%) didn't really join the party.

In China, vehicle sales rose +11% in June from the same month in 2019 to almost 2.3 mln units, a sharp recovery and better than expected. That caps three months of year-on-year gains, although it was boosted by stronger commercial vehicle sales and significant tax rebates. But the sales reported are by manufacturers to dealers and it is not clear that the dealers are selling their growing inventories at the faster rate. There may be a Chinese car crash coming.

The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 10,761,200 and that is a sharp jump of +249,000 in one day. Global deaths reported now exceed 518,000.

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +100,000 in two days to 2,713,200. US deaths now exceed 128,000. The number of active infections in the US is now up to 1,854,800, up +64,600 in a day. In Europe, the only country that hasn't crushed its curve is now Sweden where they are reporting record new cases.

In Australia, there have been 8001, another +81 since yesterday and a fast-rising tide, especially in Victoria. Community transfer is not under control there. Their death count is still at 104 but their recovery rate has slipped back to under 89%. There are now 807 active cases in Australia (up +54 overnight).

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 0.67%. Their 2-10 curve is holding at +52 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +15 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is marginally steeper at +55 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 0.92%. The China Govt 10yr is little-changed at 2.90%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also unchanged from this time yesterday at 0.98% but in local trade last night it reached 1.00%.

The gold price has firmed overnight, up +US$5 to US$1,776/oz.

Oil prices have firmed again today. They are now just under US$41/bbl in the US and the Brent price is just over US$43/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is firmer again, now just on 65.1 USc. On the cross rates we are up as well, now at 94.1 AUc and against the euro we are also firmer at 58 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has risen to 70 and its strongest in more than four months.

The bitcoin price has fallen away overnight, down -2.3% to US$9,080. It is now below NZ$14,000 for the first time in two months. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

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103 Comments

"From October on, they will drop off "
September & October - historically, very bad months to have anything dropping off....

Agree that expecting everything to fall / bad data from September / October BUT as of now stock market is all time high and going up on a daily basis and even housing market till now is showing resistance to consequence of lockdown/panademic.

As of now it is not calm before the storm BUT booming before expected fall.

Only reason seems to be easy flow of money as just yesterday saw an article how many people have managed to get wage subsidy from 3 or 4 sources and heaps from 2 source as a result many got much more than they would normally earn besides so many other who availed by manipulating the system and some by cheating (Number is high).

If Government / IRD announces that will investigate all subsidise for any irregularities - many will shit in their pants but than government has to get back to power and that is possible by throwing money and letting people get away with cheating.

Business that have been affected got some relief in form of wage subsidy but for many many businesses it was a small jackpot.

Currently no sign of recession can be felt in NZ except may be in regions dependent solely on International tourist/Travellers but definitely not in Auckland except May be in CBD.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018753283/th...

This is just tip of the iceberg as has been manipulated and misused by many.

22
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Huge virus numbers being reported everywhere, huge joblessness, markets love it. Madness.

It's been explained before that even though infections are up the death rate and numbers are FALLING. You will no doubt make the claim that it is due to dodgy stats etc. Show some balance blobbles please.

12
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Hospitalisations and number of deaths are lagging factors with a lag time of anywhere between 2 - 4 weeks. Sadly I expect these numbers will soon start rising rapidly in the 31 US States that are currently showing an increase in case numbers.

A few CV19s on a few planes did in NY utterly. At that point the enemy was within. Then thousands outward bound from NY daily, CV19 amongst them, repeats the story coast to coast. The lower death rates tells us experience and level of care has improved considerably. But death is only but a part of the damage and destruction.

Sending C19 patients to recover in rest homes was the reason so many died in NY. Same in Italy, UK and Spain.

"Gov. Andrew Cuomo has finally admitted — tacitly and partially, anyway — the mistake that was state health chief Howard Zucker’s order that nursing homes must admit coronavirus-positive patients.

On Sunday, Cuomo announced a new regulation: Such patients must now test negative for the virus before hospitals can return them to nursing homes. Yet the gov also admitted that COVID-19 cases might still go to the facilities via other routes, and didn’t explicitly overrule Zucker’s March 25 mandate that homes must accept people despite their testing status — indeed, couldn’t even require a test pre-admission."
https://nypost.com/2020/05/10/cuomo-was-wrong-to-order-nursing-homes-to-...
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/explains-lot-nyc-italy-laws-enc...

I've heard about this a few times, but what's never stated is what the better option was? I'd be surprised if the decision was made as a first choice rather than a last resort. If the hospitals are full and people need ongoing care, there's only so many places they can go. I guess you could do 'clean' rest homes and 'covid' rest homes, but only at the cost of uprooting thousands of vulnerable people, or perhaps a more engaged Federal government could have helped with capacity by sending people to other states?

The fact is the media whipped up a state of panic, and the hospitals were emptied of recovering C19 patients direct to the rest homes, to free up hospital beds that were never used. The hospitals were never over run and the C19 patients sent to recover with the most vulnerable population. The USNS Comfort left NY having only treated 200 odd patients.

"CBS News has admitted that alarming footage of an overflowing ward used during a report on the coronavirus crisis in Big Apple hospitals was actually shot in Italy.

CBS’ breakfast show, “This Morning,” used the footage of a packed ward last Wednesday just after saying the pandemic’s epicenter was “found right here” in New York."

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cbs-admits-to-using-footage-from-italy-in-...

"Only one ward at the NHS Nightingale hospital's London location was ever used, the Telegraph can reveal, after the service shuttered the doors of the new hospitals to patients just weeks after opening. A volunteer who worked in the London hospital has said just one of the dozen wards at the ExCel Centre was ever put to use, after a lack of demand from NHS Trusts across the capital."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/number-patients-londons-nhs-...

Hindsight is a fantastic thing. Remember when all we knew was China was building multiple new hospitals in short order in a single city and their crematoria were running 24/7, and then the disease started smashing Italy? Tough decisions to be made in the heat of the moment without proper knowledge of the enemy.

Sure there is "heat of the moment" but then there is CBS fake news footage whipping up a frenzy to sell some advertising and score political points. It is immoral to keep your populace in a continual state of fear.

I just don't understand why some revel in bad news

I think sadly, many have a tendency to over focus on bad news, talk, think and worry about bad things constantly. This leaves little time to concentrate on the good and unsurprisingly snowballs into only seeing the bad, being unhappy and ultimately living a very sad life where one can no longer see any good

Yeah, I thought the same reading Foxglove's comment above. "did in NY utterly", "death is only but a part of the damage and destruction". Best said in a deep and sombre voice.
Most people just get over it like a cold, many never even knew they had it.

Yep, just look at which post has the most thumbs up, by far… it's the one that says "huge new CV numbers, huge joblessness"

The cult of Malthus.

16
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That's true. I also know of people who can't handle any bad news (the 'good vibes only' tribe). As a result they live in fear that someone might pop 'the world is perfect and wonderful' bubble and as a result live in fear of anyone telling them anything bad and live in fixed states of hindsight, confirmation and recency bias (i.e. the way I know the world is how it is and how it will always be and nothing will ever change).

How do you determine when you are or are not accurately managing the risk if you don't read the bad news in the same quantity/quality as the good? If you deny all bad news, how do you know when/if you've missed something important and find yourself living in a state of denial? (honest question)

IMO it's definitely not about ignoring risk, it's acknowledging risk then asking the question "is the risk real and what can I do to mitigate this risk?". Too many simply point out "look at the risk, oh it's so bad, it could lead to… and this catastrophic event could also happen, yes I know someone who lost everything..." This is unhelpful because
1) it one focuses on the bad
2) it doesn't question if things are truly as bad as presumed
3) it fails to ask the paramount question " how can I make it better?"

I'd disagree that it is unhelpful, as long as its viewed through an effective paradigm. If the paradigm is 'great I've acknowledged the risk vs reward and now want to continue with my action as I understand the probability of a good outcome vs a bad outcome' then that is effective. Compared to the paradigm of 'I don't want to talk about bad outcomes as I can't deal with them, therefore I'm just going to do what makes me feel good regardless of the risks and possible outcomes'.

Do agree though that its horrible when you talk to people who only see risk without the reward. But I find it equally painful to talk to people who won't acknowledge any risk at all.

14
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I don't think observing it is the same as revelling it.

19
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This is an investment site, and investors care about bad news. Gamblers only look at positives.

The only 'good news' that I hear is 'numbers not as bad as expected'. The expected numbers were bad to start with, they were only a stab in the dark to start with. Maybe they are doing a builders quote maths, expected materials & time plus 30% and add a few more just incase.

Let me help you out then. Good news;
- NZ has mostly contained CV has had few death, most being elderly.
- I Imagine you and I have had a sleep in a nice warm bed and nice breakfast without having to worry about hunger or shelter.
- Clearly you own a computer or phone (probably both) and and internet connection
- Hopefully you have your health intact
- It's a beautiful sunny day (in Auckland anyway)
Of course I could go on forever, it's sad if you cannot see any good news, it's your choice wether you look at the good or the bad or a bit of both.

Most importantly, we always end up finding what we look for (talk about), wether this is misery, poverty, illness, loneliness or happiness, wealth, friends, family so be very, very careful what you focus on all day every day

11
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I don't think you understand. Again, this is an investment site. Most people who comment here do so with various investments in mind, thus comments are about things that affect said investments. (Plus add the occasional politics.)
Would you rather have this turn into another Facebook neighbourhood group with all sorts of feel-good comments about how sunny it is today, or how good the lemon pie I just baked smells? A cute photo of a puppy perhaps?
You don't seem to understand that what people comment here does not cover 100% of their thoughts. We have filters, and when something doesn't belong here, we usually don't say it. I had an amazing session at the pools yesterday, but nobody on interest.co.nz cares. I also enjoy wearing trackpants to work, but again, nobody cares. There are so many other forums where you can comment on the weather, your health, your phone etc...

Interesting how this is an investment site - but 99% of the comments from an investment front are to do with residential property investment. Not bonds or shares, or even commercial property/REITs.

People are only aware of the risks they understand and from talking to the typical kiwi, when it comes to investment, the only know investment property (IP as is the slogan on the FB pages...) but they don't know anything about the macroeconomic environment, how interest rates are set, how to calculate a DCF to value an asset - but they are an 'expert' because they've made money on a couple of IP's and then tell everyone else they should be doing the same.

Most investment that is not property is in small business, with limited interest to others (aside from farming and rental investment that many are involved in). Not much point playing stock markets in this day and age as big boys have better info and lower transaction costs and systems to exploit people 'playing' stock markets so individuals generally can't do better than buying a few stocks or ETFs and staying in them long term. But politics and economic conditions affect us all.

I keep mentioning my barbers (past and present), because they all seem to be property experts and always have something very insightful to share. Well, two days ago I asked him about his thoughts on the up-and-coming recession, and he immediately started talking about property. No mention of rates, stock market, productive economy, tourism, hospitality, foreign students. Nope. "New Zealand should open up to foreign investors to invest in real estate". That's his solution to the current crisis.

He made a risky investment about a decade ago (5% deposit on a house) that paid off, and now he's convinced that property prices can never fall, anywhere in the world, ever. I mentioned Ireland and the UK, he dismissed it as "well maybe in some smaller towns prices fell". He had no idea that many property bubbles have popped before. He's not a dumb person at all, but since he made money on property he thinks he knows all there is to know about it. No research, zero consideration of fundamentals. But a very firm knowledge about how leverage works on the way up, of course!

CJ, good on you for coming around to realise this is an investment site (not a moral and ethics site). I understand your point that we should discuss finance not your track pants but I'm not sure you understand human psychology and the propensity to make good decisions when in a good, positive frame of mind, no matter the subject, and bad decisions when in a negative, fearful frame of mind

Noticing bad news and evaluating them does not mean the person is in a bad mood. Record high unemployment levels in the US is bad news, but I don't feel existential dread because of it. Thousands of people dying in Sweden due to Covid is bad news, but it doesn't affect my mood that much, as horrible as that sounds. I take these facts, think about cause and effect and how they relate to my plans.

Because seperating any discussion around the morality and ethics of investments has done so much good for everyone...

Spot on CJ, I like your thinking. This page is about insightful facts and debates. No warm fuzzies

Yvil. So if I'm warm and happy I should be content with that. Sounds like we should issue CCP tow the Party line cards.
I would be happy in hut in the bush with no phone or computer but in the real world I've got a three young girls another 20 to 30 years before I tip over. In that time I would rather not do a standard 9 to 5 job and still pass on at least enough money on to my kids so they have a deposite for a house. Hence I need to be on top of developments in the NZ and global economy to be better informed to make money.
I slept well, had a good breakfast and I'm alive, dosen't cut the custard when I put a long term investment together unfortunately.

It's unfortunate that you completely miss my point, never mind.

Bad News is good news if one were to look at what's happening in pretty much any 'market' at the moment?
So do you want more Bad News or Good?

Human psychology. Some are preparing for the worst while hoping for the best, some are telling themselves how good/lucky they are not to be impacted by it, and some are just trying to know/understand what is going on around them. A whole bunch are just ignoring it all thinking it will never impact on them.

The media on the other hand are trying to stir up and create readership. The more sensational the news is the more likely this is to happen, because of peoples reactions to how it is spun. The trick is to be able to filter it to achieve a balance. Not easy sometimes.

even if so, the US stock market is in craze mode as the fed buys all the bond debt and those bond holders jump into the share market. You just need to look at stocks for Tesla and Amazon and its obvious they are going to have to crash, as they are so far detached from reality.

Just look at the charts

https://tradingeconomics.com/tsla:us
https://tradingeconomics.com/amzn:us

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/01/double-wtf-chart-of-the-year-tesla-bec...

Agreed.

Zoom technologies experienced a 5x increase in SP during lockdown.

The problem with that is the Zoom you're all thinking about trades as Zoom Video Communications.

That's mental. Tesla makes a net loss of $862 million. Toyota makes a net income of $19.1 billion. And yet Toyota is worth less than Tesla.

Thats how "tech" operates.

I used to work for a "unicorn" with a turnover of $8m USD. It for some reason had a valuation of $2b.

It no longer exists.

It's all a gamble on whether their autonomy effort works out. If it does they will be worth trilliions - a market leader with no hope of other's catching up for many years (the time it takes to replicate their now huge training data set). The other EV/battery tech is easy to catch up on in a couple of years, and toyota+VAG can undercut Tesla on production costs due to 10x volume and existing production capacity.

You'd think Alphabet / Waymo would have the possibility of even better datasets and a model they could license to other manufacturers.

Very different approach. Waymo is trying to create incredibly detailed models of places they operate in with expensive radar, lidar and visual sensor systems. Tesla is trying a radically different approach of low detail models, almost entirely camera based with highly trained machine vision to interpret the environment, road signs and other visual cues like a human does. Waymo's high detail approach is incredibly expensive to roll out and not robust to change, whereas Tesla's approach can in theory work anywhere and adapt to change easily. If Tesla's approach pans out they win all the marbles.

Very interesting, cheers.

Partly. But I'd bet Elon's cult following on Reddit's Wall Street Bets is playing it's part.

So you think Brazil and India figs are accurate do you?

All I am saying is the virus has wrought huge economic damage, and it continues to do so, according to almost all statistics. Yet the share markets (which have generally, in the past, reflected economic reality) are now in la-la land. They don't care about unemployment or basically any normal indicator that makes them react. They are disconnected from reality.

Please take your strawman argument elsewhere. I stated nothing about death rates, I stated nothing about dodgy stats. It will be fantastic if new methods of dealing with the disease are proven effective, but it's far too early to tell.

3 things possible: increased testing, improved treatment using steroid metha watsit, younger infected (many protestors) [Edit] it's youngsters: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/young-americans-ar...

That's weird how China records its car sales. I guess the unsold steel tells another story. If the standoff progresses with Australia, when will the Iron Ore shipments stop. I hope Trump exercises even more Trade Sanctions against Pooh. At least some countries have the stealth to stand up against the ugliness that Pooh is threatening. Five Eyes may become Twenty Eyes.

Lies, damned lies, and Chinese economic data. Safest to ignore it, it's just a propaganda tool with only marginal relation to reality - unless it comes from non-chinese controlled sources.

More central bank nonsense.

To hear the media talk, you’d think that the most pressing issue in the world right now is the dangerous prospect for rising interest rates. Rising. Its members are given this idea from the one source they rely upon no matter how many times that same source lets them down and leaves them in the lurch looking so very foolish (see: BOND ROUT!!!!)
That source is, of course, central bankers. Link

people in Japan have put up with two dozen QE’s including three different versions of QQE, and the lack of growth in the economy none of them could turn around. Imposing a deep recession, however, is a categorically different story. Already deeply pessimistic about an upside that may no longer exist, that doesn’t mean anyone will just accept a possibly deep downside with protracted negative pressures. Link

Yield-Curve Control Experts Debate How Fed Could Juice Yen

Just watching CNN so excuse any bias, but they are saying that sure the jobs market might be showing a small bounce back, but its doing so as a result of opening up restaurants and bars etc that perhaps shouldn't have been, and now that has caused an even bigger surge in COVID cases.

CNN is just democratic propaganda as is Fox to the Republicans

Cant believe anything on either of them

Yip - the bias can be quite unbearable.

Take a gander at Sweden's Daily Deaths graph:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Interesting. It quite possibly supports mortality displacement hypothesis and hence Sweden may well be out of the woods. Still more data needed obviously.

Looks like good news - I wonder what the cause is? Looks like testing has increased quite significantly so maybe the reported cases are not comparable with previous data when testing was lacking, but I can't see that being the whole cause. Are they protecting their vulnerable better? Is treatment better? Some combination of all 3 + other things I haven't thought of?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE#testi...

The UK High Court has ruled that Venezuela’s legitimate president is in fact its self-proclaimed leader Juan Guaido, and not the elected Nicolas Maduro, in a bizarre legal battle for $1 billion of gold bullion.

The Bank of England (BOE) holds close to $2 billion of Venezuela’s gold for safekeeping. With both the Venezuelan government and the opposition laying claim to the fortune, the High Court has been tasked with deciding who deserves the funds, and said on Thursday that the UK “unequivocally recognizes” self-proclaimed leader Guaido as president.

“Whatever the basis for the recognition, her majesty’s government has unequivocally recognized Mr Guaido as president of Venezuela,” Justice Nigel Teare said on Thursday. “It necessarily follows that her majesty’s government no longer recognizes Mr Maduro as president of Venezuela.” Link

Well there is some handy early 19th century precedent there. Britain covertly but significantly supported Bolívar. Perhaps as part “founders” of the nation the UK claims some authority still today? After all the currency is bolivars.Just asking.

Thank you, thank you thank you....

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/122023431/helen-clark-peter-gluckman-rob-...

We need to be thinking about defining our longer-term strategy. Is New Zealand prepared to hold itself in its state of near-total isolation for the indefinite future?” the paper asked.

And from the ever loving Guardian

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/jacin...

Jacinda Ardern has decried as “dangerous” her detractors’ calls to open New Zealand’s borders – or present a plan for how she will do so – as the country remains largely free of Covid-19 while the virus spreads abroad.

How will she wriggle out of this.

Dangerous
able or likely to cause harm or injury.

Move from emotive meaning, to the literal meaning....

Q ... like, what is dangerous...
A .... everything, life......

As the Guardian reports, the number and range of detractors grows.

Do you disagree with JA Henry? Why?

Having a plan, v no plan.

No plan, having no plan is likely to cause harm compared to having a plan.

Presently we do not know the information the PM dept sees, nor what Clark & co in Stuff article see. Nor do we know what the PM is thinking.

What would you like to see in the plan? Currently, with little warning they realised to limit/control/stop the impact on NZ they had to completely close the borders. This would have a massive impact regardless of how it was done. Even if they had realised this in December, there would still have not been sufficient time to adequately prepare, although the resistance would have certainly ramped up. Currently we are the ONLY country in the world with COVID under control. No plan? Who is offering something different?

If we could see a plan, that would be great. Still many unanswered questions

Some questions are very difficult to answer and take thorough research and evaluation of possibilities before an educated guess can be given. Would you be happy with an uneducated, gut feeling answer? For example, National had a lot of answers about handling Covid-19. Sadly, those were uneducated, gut feeling answers that would have resulted in disaster and thousands dead. In addition to contradicting themselves every other week or so.

Ofcourse informed decisions are essential. But as time passes, the collateral damage will continue to mount and opportunities missed. The private sector needs to know what the post lockdown world looks like so they can adapt and hopefully survive. Ultimately, we need certainty and we have to be able to trust that the government will uphold any promises they make.
In response to your National comment, what does that have to do with the discussion?

I brought up National's response to Covid as an example of hasty, uninformed decision making. Fair enough, I could also mention the recent selection of "shovel-ready" projects as a less than optimal result of lack of rushed decision making. IMO businesses should evaluate their own prospects assuming no radical policy changes by govt. It's not like a business just stops working until the government comes up with a plan.

Yes but they need stability, especially large employers who have to make forecasts for their future work. Its times like these where the politicians really earn their keep and we find out who cuts the mustard. Infrastructure in this country is woefully under resourced so any shovel ready stuff is welcomed, as long as its fit for purpose and all the bureaucracy doesnt get in the way. But I think we seriously need a forward looking plan for the government. And we need it now because our current economy wasn't and isn't sustainable, with or without Covid.

Well said YDB, it's time you remove that "D" out of your name

Sure lets have a systems/resources check. Empircal evidence. Start with people, health system and economy.

1.a Health: Condition of known cases, treatments used, tested population balance, against community health criterion.
1.b Social: Condition, employment conditions, housing, crime, drug use, mental health, age groupings

2.a Level, intensity of health support needed for cases.
2.b Resources, PPE, hospital space, medic team number & condition. Implied capacity & resilience. Aged care, GPs, Pharmacies, community health services deliveries.

3.a Economy, condition of BOP earning industries
3.b. Economy, areas where jobs can be established & secured.

Next level, state of arrivals quarantine resources.

Look at Country policy toward the community & country, to start marking priorities in order to enact policy.

Slowly, very slowly, moving towards the realisation that we need to learn to live with CV

It seems inevitable now. The vaccine hype is just that, hype. Until CV has a vaccine or herd immunity is established, we have to adapt to the new environment. What we can't afford do is stand around like stunned mullets waiting for everything to come right.

Yes exactly Yvil. We also need precision responses instead of the 'unable to come up with a good plan' impositions. I am pissed off with the govt for doing that and which I think was politically motivated. So that they would get high poll ratings, at least that bit worked... for them!

Election shortly so rightly pointed out that many decessions will be on hold or will be taken keeping election in focus and that may nog be good for NZ.

Reading the Helen Clark paper, thinking about the level of consultation and communication, national conversations needed.....

Megan Woods, she needs be gone. For an All of government response key personality to be so divisive. How can she be part of some tuff country wide conversations. She is tone deaf compared to the Helen Clark paper.

This is bad news. Refer above. Finishing the week with a slurr. Classy.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/420409/govt-will-be-cautious-over-b...

Hipkins said National MP Hamish Walker's remarks on returning New Zealanders were a "dog whistle" by invoking nationality and country of origin.

I would hope that they already have a basic outline but still way too early to take it seriously to many unknowns.

Yep, basic outline is a start...

If they went into this without a plan A, B, C & D they should be sacked.

I too am considering releasing a paper of stating the obvious, causing people to assume that no one at all is thinking of how these things can be managed. I shall offer as few concrete suggestions as possible, but rather focus in the vein of "someone needs to be doing something". I may well mount a coup to lead the opposition after that.

Found this to be an interesting summary of where we are/where we could be heading:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1puOHoTTWg

Agree. Look out to were this all goes, not at what is happening at present.

RNZ currently interviewing Bonnie Leung, a pro-democracy campaigner from Hong Kong who is confirming my interpretation of Article 38 of the new security laws that any one anywhere can fall foul of them. Bottom line if you've ever uttered any comment that could be interpreted as inciting enmity against the CCP, don't go to or pass through China!

Yep, you got think about deleting wee chat and tik tok.
Tiktok is already banned in India.

Fracking no longer economic. Junk bonds taking massive hits.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/29/chesapeake-bankruptc...

In other news, Eppstein and Trump's pimp Ghislaine Maxwelll has been arrested by the FBI and is now scheduled to commit suicide, exact date to be confirmed.

Hmmm if all eyes are on Ghislaine its probably a good time to tank the economy another notch without anyone noticing.

"exact date to be confirmed" - Come on, don't leave me hanging...

Hey come on guys. For anyone who has experienced the horrific loss of a loved one to suicide, this kind of comment is never funny. Ever.

Take it in the context of Jeffery Epstein and you'll feel much better.

Fair call.

My comment is related to Epstein's case, and he didn't commit suicide.

Lol brilliant...

Every new day the USA is moving ever closer towards the same conditions that instigated the French Revolution (FR) in 1789:
Many unemployed, the huge disparity of wealth between the 1% of 'haves' and the 60% of 'have-nots', dismissive arrogant leadership supporting the wealthy (corporations; it was the church in the FR). All it needs now is for Trump to say to the underclass: "Let them eat cake", or similar.
An alternative scenario would be for the USA to turn fascist under Trump: this would involve a brutal police state and a war that would serve as a distraction and mop up the unemployed with conscription.
Either way, something will have to give if living standards for the masses don't turn around soon.

A common refrain - cut company tax rates. And wonder why people seek property as a safe haven. The healthcare residential sector are property plays. I have posted before about Ryman Healthcare. Now its the turn of Arvida

Quote NZ Herald - Arvida, which has 4750 residents, is holding its AGM in Auckland at the Cordis this morning where Wilson complained about inadequate state financial assistance. "The contribution made by our sector to meeting the challenges of Covid-19 has proved to be material. One-off sector subsidies have been inadequate and have not addressed the cost incurred by operators to ensure maintenance of high health and safety operating standards.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=123...

Arvida published annual accounts
Profit 2020 $22 million tax refund (-$20) million = 0% - Profit After Tax $42 million
Profit 2019 $62 million tax paid $2.789 million = 4.5%
Profit 2018 $62 million tax paid $4.278 million = 6.9%

So are some of the early childhood centre companies. Both these and retirement village companies obviously benefit indirectly from welfare subsidies while investing in property.

Yes, I see one sure way that National can win the election and that is to expose the many individuals who have rorted the wage-subsidy scheme. If they could be tracked down, exposed, and severely punished that would do me......I would vote for them. But it must be done before the election.

Gimme a break!! streetwise you have absolutely no idea. The wage subsidy requirements were so wide you could drive an aircraft carrier through them. As a self employed contractor I actually made more money (after tax) for the month thanks to the WS. Don't blame the business'.. blame a kneejerk incompetent Govt

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