US GDP falls sharply; US jobless claims stay high; China offshore acquisition tumbles; Hong Kong suffers; Aussie super clearout gathers pace; UST 10yr yield at 0.54%; oil down and gold pulls back; NZ$1 = 66.7 USc; TWI-5 = 69.7

US GDP falls sharply; US jobless claims stay high; China offshore acquisition tumbles; Hong Kong suffers; Aussie super clearout gathers pace; UST 10yr yield at 0.54%; oil down and gold pulls back; NZ$1 = 66.7 USc; TWI-5 = 69.7

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of general decline everywhere.

First, the big news is that real American gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of -33% in the second quarter of 2020. That is on top of the first quarter's real GDP decrease of -5.0% annual rate. In current dollars that means that US GDP fell from $22.3 tln in 2019 and is now running at an annual rate of just US$19.4 tln. The missing -US$2.9 tln in annualised activity is a world scale economic calamity of the first order and neither China nor the EU nor Japan nor any combination of them can make that up in any sustained way without artificial stimulus. The ripple effects are global. About the only 'good' bit is that the decline was slightly less than analysts were expecting. Actual Q2-2020 US GDP is -9.6% lower than Q2-2019 GDP, itself a reduction of -US$560 bln.

As if that wasn't bad enough, jobless claims rose by another +1.4 mln last week and now just over 17 mln people are on these benefits. From August, increasing numbers will start to fall off assistance as their claim eligibility ends. This will build during the month and into September to become the dominant social metric.

Mexico also reported Q2-2020 GDP and it was -10.5% lower than for Q2-2019, or -17.3% below Q1-2020. These results were about as expected.

Chinese companies reported their overseas acquisitions tumbled by -40% in the first half of the year to the lowest level in a decade.

Singaporean business confidence was less bad in July than in the previous survey but it is still deeply negative. Interestingly, it is tougher in their service sector than their factory sector.

Hong Kong reported that their Q2 GDP was -9% lower in 2020 than for the equivalent 2019 period. And their retail sales were -25% lower in June 2020 than June 2019

In Australia, more than half a million people are estimated to have "completely cleaned out" their superannuation savings as the pandemic crisis bites, and their Treasury predicts workers will withdraw a total of AU$42 bln under their new early-access scheme. But their tax authorities are watching closely to ensure the claims of hardship are genuine. There are large tax penalties for those making invalid claims.

The S&P500 is down -0.5% so far today little-affected by the GDP result. The FAANGs all report earnings today after the closing bell. Overnight, European markets all fell very heavily, some as much as -3%. Yesterday, Shanghai ended down -0.2%, Hong Kong was down -0.7%, and Tokyo ended down -0.3%. The ASX200 rose +0.7% (on strong mining prospects) and the NZX50 rose +0.8% in a late final burst.

The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 17,109,000 and that is up +289,000 since this time yesterday. Global deaths reported now exceed 669,000 (+7,000).

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +77,100 from this time yesterday to 4,603,600. US deaths are now just over 154,600 and a death rate of 467/mln (+5/mln). And the net number of people actively infected in the US rose +33,000 yesterday to 2,193,300.

In Australia, there have now been 16,303 cases reported, a record +721 since this time yesterday, and still very much concentrated in Victoria but also small pockets in both Sydney's suburbs and now Queensland. Their death count is up to 189 (+13). Their recovery rate has slipped to under 60%. There are now 6356 active cases in Australia and almost all are community transfer.

The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps to just on 0.54% and equal to its record low. This is one market that is reacting to the US GDP result. Their 2-10 curve is flatter at +42 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +12 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is also flatter at +46 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 0.85%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.96%. But the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is lower and now at 0.81% after another -2 bps dip.

The gold price is down -US$9 today to US$1,953/oz.

The World Gold Council released its Q2-2020 gold demand results. That showed jewellery demand down -53% year-on-year from Q2-2019, coin and bar demand down -32% on the same basis, and industrial demand down -18%. Even central bank demand slumped -50% on this basis. But much of this general decline was made back by EFT speculators who piled in in a serious was with +300% higher demand. Overall demand was down -11%. Supply however fell -15% which helped keep prices up.

Oil prices are lower today by about -US$1/bbl. They are now just under US$40/bbl in the US and the international price is just at US$42.50/bbl.

And the Kiwi dollar will also start today little-changed at 66.7 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer than yesterday at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are also soft at 56.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has slipped to 69.7 but still in the general range we have been in, all year.

The bitcoin price is also soft, down -1.5% since this time yesterday to US$11,047. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Some of that Aussie Super withdrawal money has come into NZ via returning kiwis. Then added to their FH deposit.


What are they coming home to? A job?
That Aussie super might be enough to keep some of them afloat ( 20 grand doesn't go as far at Countdown as it used to!); buying a house being low down the list of important considerations right now.

How ironic. If they spend their Aussie super at Countdown, their money goes straight back to Aussie!

True but it could be worse, look at the US economy quickly disappearing down the plug hole. Trump is trying to distract everyone from their abysmal GDP figures by trying to delay their elections in November. Even the Republicans have had enough of him.

BBC article: Republicans to Trump: You can't delay 2020 election. "Top Republicans have rejected Donald Trump's suggestion that November's presidential election should be delayed over alleged fraud concerns. Mr Trump does not have the authority to postpone the election. Any delay would have to be approved by Congress."

Whats that got to do with accessing Australian super?

Nope don't have any troll food for you today Masher. ヽ༼ ಠ益ಠ ༽ノ

Just the usual ad hominem....

Awww don't cry masher ༼ ༎ຶ ෴ ༎ຶ༽


You’ve repeated this claim before, where’s the evidence. Who in their right mind would claim hardship, have to prove they are indeed in hardship, and then be in a position to take on more debt to purchase a house? Banks wouldn’t touch them with a 10ft barge pole and one can only assume you’re another spruiker with an agenda.

A typical scenario - kiwi returns to NZ over the last 9 months, applies for the Super $$$ while job searching, then gets employment after, then that extra money boosts the. NZ economy.
This updates relates to Davids Breakfast update on this topic.
I do know some people in this position re FHBs.
Regardless, it is giving a boost to the NZ economy especially in the 20-40 year old who have returned for a couple of years or more.


"A typical scenario" do you have evidence on how much this is actually taking place???

Of course he/she doesn’t, it’s all anecdotal at best and just fits the narrative.

Anecdotally I know of a couple from Melbourne who are doing exactly this. But they have jobs to walk into.

Two rounds of Super withdrawal and an increased income on Job Keeper because she was part time. They seem to think they can stay on Job Keeper even if they've left provided they stay employed under contract. They're also hoping for a redundancy, which as I can personally attest to, :), is much more generous in Australia. So it is happening.

Having said that the last couple of articles on show net outward migration. So you'd have to assume that while returning kiwis will drive some demand that it shouldn't be overall of significance because of outwards migration and the hardship mentioned.

I'm poking around for a bargain property, which is part of my long term strategy, and it's an anecdote that REA's are trying to use on me to drive price achievement.

Wrong. Most has gone to Kiwis that were already back in NZ, and have been for some time (ie years). Its just they still had an Aussie super balance. Of the people I know in NZ that got it they used it to pay down debt, and as a buffer during a time of reduced earnings.

You love to work your way backwards from a desired outcome.

Yes, agree this money flowing into NZ includes all kiwis living in NZ with a Super balance.
And it is relatively straight forward to make a successful hardship claim.


Its pretty much kiwis already in NZ. My kiwi mates here in Sydney that have taken it out have done so to avoid having to return to NZ.

How many instances do you know of Kiwis returning at present from Australia with their super on the look out for their first home?

Sounds great, but not an accurate reflection of reality.


I moved back from Melbourne at the start of February (that was always the plan, completely unrelated to COVID). I will be transferring my Aussie Superannuation funds in to my KiwiSaver, and I'm also a FHB. I'm actively analysing the market but not currently looking to buy as I firmly believe that we are in for a shock.

Know a few via family & friends network - adult kids etc ... Kwaussies who returned 6-12 months ago

Last time I checked, If your Aussie super has been transferred into your kiwisaver account then you aren't allowed to draw it out for a house purchase. I guess you could get around that by claiming hardship, having it sent as cash and then transferring it into your account, but then you should hardly qualify as being in hardship if you are off to get a mortgage.

That is correct re Super to KS.
The other situation is where a kiwi (who has an Aussie Super account) claims the 10 or 20k Covid hardship withdrawal successfully - this can go straight into a bank account not your Kiwisaver.

Yeah with extra 20K and try to apply for a mortgage when you have no job.. Unless you know something i don't!

Even if they had a job banks aren’t gonna touch them. The application for hardship assistance will be a major red flag regarding their servicing ability particularly as they will have only been in work for a few months at the most. Given what we know about how stringent banks have been with their lending this type of application would be destined for the scrap heap.

@mortgagebelt , you need to think things through .

If they bring back their Aussie Super "as a deposit " for a house, as you suggest, they will need a mortgage for the rest of the purchase price of the said property .

Who on earth is going to pass a mortgage over a property to someone who is likely to be unemployed , and with no recent employment history in NZ ?

I'm not thinking things through - just reporting on a known phenomenon.
You may have returned from Aus, be unemployed for a short while, claim the hardship, get the Super $$$, then get a job, and then yes get a mortgage.
I'm not saying its good or not, just that its happening. And that it is providing some economic stimulus.

JA has been voted the world's most eloquent leader... jc (small caps) has no chance against someone so adored. When it comes to results and fulfillment of promises JA won't be so rated.


You could be right. But if Labour 'get in' unencumbered by the horse-trading necessary in a minority coalition (Labour having polled less than National last time) then we will get a chance to better evaluate their actions.
The next three years are going to be crucial to the long term welfare of New Zealand. Let's hope whoever governs the country gets it right.

Come on bw, labour and phil stoner twyford in particular couldn't run a brothel in a navy port.. they failed miserably at KB. They had a mandate and full backing. No wonder he is referred to as fool twyford, but what did labour do, they moved him up. That says more about his spin doctoring than anything


Phil Twyford? Have you watched Nick Smith in Parliament these last few weeks?!

It doesn’t help when a large proportion of society wants kiwibuild to fail.

Ahhhhhh the conspiracy theory.. what about those who want it to work, they dont count. Or those who will apply their good skills to a worthy cause

Yet even Judith Collins now admits National failed in not advancing social housing and has set about revamping their policies. Kiwibuild was a reaction to years/decades of the inaction on the housing front. That it' failed' comes as no surprise.
What we need to take notice of is 'what happens now' from whoever wins the election, and if it's less reliance on the Private Sector to provide shelter to the market that should also come as no surprise.

I did a great essay sir but the dog ate it. Can I still get full marks.

No worries we aren't keeping the score or evaluating anything now days. Here's some money, run along now.

Genuine requests can go jump.. such as st john ambo

Ah St John...
Did you know that St John bid for their contracts with each DHB (except Wellington), and deliberately under bid themselves?
Seems foolish when realistically there is no other organisation that could take over the contracts.
St John could write whatever figure they need on the contract but they deliberately don’t to keep their total government funding low enough that they can still claim to be a charity.

They should be fully funded ...

As should WFA.

Yes, but their whole structure needs updating to allow that.
Or in my opinion, they should be at least partially taken over by the government in the same manner that they recently took over and amalgamated 40 different fire fighting organisations to form Fire and Emergency NZ.
Leave St John to carry on some aspects such as their community health shuttles and first aid training and education but form a NZ ambulance service to ensure emergency ambulance care is always available without monetary constraints.

Kiwibuild wasn't a reaction, it was a lie, made up in the back of the car on the way to a speech, the numbers doubled for effect, not ever expecting to have to deliver it, which funnily enough, they couldn't.
In truth, the strategy of Housing NZ (by any name) of building houses, trading crappy old 50's boxes for more suitable, new buildings was a great strategy, and delivered most of the new state houses during the current governments term. Apart from allowing HNZ to borrow more off the governments books, little of this was Labours doing.

I would like to push back on those facts and refer you to my multiple fashion mag photo ops that show no one cares.


Conspiracy theory or inconvenient truth. Its one way to explore where a conscious or unconscious bias could exist. Either way its funny that its mostly property investors that bash kiwibuild, mostly because they're shit scared it might actually work (the government would provide affordable housing which would prevent investors/landlords from making money at the expense of future generations).

You're welcome to believe that... do you believe in the moon landing. KB turned out to only help those who were already well off, that did not go down well with genuine fhb, and that was a nail in the coffin. The eligibility criteria kept changing not because there was any underhanded action but just because of incompetence of those making irrational promises. You have convenient memory IO

The old Donald Trump tactics...someone provides an argument which I have no intelligent response to so I must belittle them with biazarre, untruthful allegations. Nice work!

But yes I do believe in the moon landing btw.

Thats "Moon Landings"

Yes it is... thanks

Houses were built, lending money was provided. Nobody bought.

KiwiBuild had to fail. If it was successful, it would have lowered house prices which is not allowed regardless of the colour of your politics.

It's a pity that more didnt say that three years ago.


What politician ever is rated on fulfillment of promises? I mean their job is to lie. But people continue to believe otherwise and the be disappointed.

Too right Scarfie. The issue of translating policy into legislation is not a minor one, and what we think should happen may not be practically possible in reality. But we must still differentiate between unfulfilled promises and broken ones.

Unfulfilled - not delivered on. This is where most political dreams lie I think
Broken - actively gone against.

Good point.
And to be fair to Labour, they have come out with a flurry of RMA amendments.
Not that I think they will make much difference...


Yes, there is a huge perception gap. Collins has a face for radio and a voice for print, which shouldn’t matter but sadly does. And that eyebrow arching, joke nonsense will haunt her for a long time. What a sad loss Nikki Kaye has been for National. We need more centre right MPs like her and Bill English.

National was always going to be in a world of hurt this year, but somehow they have also managed to hurt themselves for years to come as well. Kaye was a big loss I agree.

English lost all credibility during that Todd Barclay saga

Todd was shafted and rewarded for shutting up. His secretary was using his office, his office furniture, his time, and his phone to organise a replacement National Clutha candidate for the next election. That was why he bugged his phone.

Really. So we can go to town on Cindy’s many repulsive attributes. Misogyny personified in the Left.

"which shouldn’t matter but sadly does." - I don't think Pietro was advocating for that, just observing that it seems to count against her to some.

I don't know about you but I tend to switch off a little when I see the name calling ('Cindy', 'Shonkey') start, it isn't helpful.

You used Misogyny and Cindy nearly in the same sentence...well done did not think someone will be able to achieve that?

Ex Expat,

Why do you persist in calling her Cindy? It's insulting and derogatory and does you no credit. You then refer to her 'many repulsive attributes" and that serves only to highlight your Trump like misogynism.

Cindy is a perfectly acceptable and commonly used abbreviation of Jacinda. Since becoming president, what misogynistic attributes has Trumpie exhibited?

I assume that whoever has claimed she is eloquent that has never heard her um and ah and circumlocute and waffle her way through an interview with Hosking. She's great at reading prepared lines and speeches though.

Message is ramping up.

Anyone who was in Queenstown from July 1 to 4 and has since developed Covid-19 symptoms should get tested immediately, health authorities say.

How covid resilient are we:
Part time health minister.
Shared response leadership
People happy to skip quarantine.


You missed out "And it's all Jacinda's fault".

Talking covid resilience what Australia state covid response systems would you prefer to have:
1. Victoria
2. New South Wales
3. Queensland.


I'll take New Zealand, thanks.

SBW is taking NSW. Must be scared of Taxinda.


Honestly, what tiresome drivel.

It won't be after the election. Tighten the belt

Tighten if you have worked hard and saved money. Handouts for the Labour voters.

Tiresome it is. I thought they'd retired that one. Maybe ExEx is dyslex; thought it meant retried.

It was in hibernation. Now Winnie is out of the way the tax and spend mantra has no handbrake.

NZs top marginal tax rate: 33%
Australias top marginal tax rate: 45%

Simplistic analysis. It doesn’t explain why 600,000 NZers chose to live in Aus. Are they all dumb? Do some more research if you can be bothered.

Simplistic response. Good luck with the Taxinda angle in this example when NZ has lower tax rates.

Top tax bracket is over 180k compared to NZ's 70k

Youre pretty much paying NZs top tax bracket from $37k (32.5%) onwards in Australia. It goes up to 37% at $87k and then 45% above $180k.

You conveniently left out the different top tax bracket figures though, didn't you? Made your 33% to 45% comparison look better

It wasn't deliberate - would you like me to go and amend to original post, instead of elaborating further when a rebuttal is raised?

It doesn't change a thing. When compared to Australia the Taxinda label is hogwash.

Ex Expat,

It's just a pity you don't follow them and raise the IQ of both countries!

Yes but it's tax free up to 18k and only 10% up until 80k. And superannuation income is charged at a concessional income rate of 15% up to 25k. With a 1.08 exchange rate currently you have to earn about NZD 375k per year before it's more tax efficient.

You can have it.
For it appears more Victorian than say Queensland.
Remember 1 in 4 Victorians "in isolation" door knocked, are not home.

For your benefit, here is some good Queensland leadership
Good testing
Good contact tracing.

No news is good news and despite future being gloomy for sometime to come (Will get worse before getting better) - before geeting normal) still stock and housing market will be up - Not to worry.

Sureal Times.

So the bad news for all you guys bitching about Covid-19 is that the long term trend in mortality kicked up in 2014, or the life expectancy started declining, which ever way you look at it (for the USA).

Change of trend, there is plenty of headroom in that new trend.

I don't get it. As opposed to people who like covid!?

Not about COVID Scarfie, you're trying to obfuscate a discussion. Besides this had been discussed prior to COVID, and many suggest that the causes lie in the consequences of poor socio-economic policy, or in simple terms blatant capitalism.

"Please sir, COVID was driving the bus!" Yes, somewhat silly.

But then co-morbidities do complicate a picture. I linked a response to an article on New Atlas that identified that even patients "recovered" from COVID were being identified with ongoing heart issues (in this article inflammation of the heart muscles). So if they were later to catch a dose of the flu which placed sufficient strain on their heart to kill them because it had been weakened by COVID, did they die from COVID or the flu? A part of this problem is that we are still learning about what the effects of COVID are, even if it does not kill us. And as this data continues to emerge, it seems "COVID fear" is not necessarily baseless.

So do you think that someone with heart disease severe enough at 80 to permit covid to kill them wouldn't have been sub clinical with that disease at age 50?

If Police are arresting someone and during that process the subject dies of a heart attack, are Police guilty of murder or manslaughter? No, never. Police had no control over that persons decisions to let themselves get into that health condition. Heart attacks for those in their 30's, and even 20's, came across my desk from time to time as a Police Officer.

Scarfie are you presuming to say that someone with severe heart disease at 80 didn't have heart disease at 50? It seems you are trying to say I was arguing a point when i wasn't, just merely observing. Have a chat to any Doctor. Co-morbidities complicate any health picture. People can sometimes live for years with say heart disease if that is their only issue, and the live correctly for the required treatment. But add in one or two other illnesses (co-morbidities) and then one or both may push that heart over the edge to force a heart attack. So what killed him?

And dont use Police as an example. they have legal powers in the use of force that protects them. Try this; a patron of a pub comes out after a night of drinking, punches a person on the street, in the head knocking them to the ground. A short while later that person dies of a heart attack brought on by the stress of the attack. Is the assailant guilty of just assault, manslaughter or murder? You were the cop, tell us?

There's actually some good analysis of it been done and released in a book called Deaths of Despair. Most of the worsening outcomes look to have been experienced by whites in the flyover states, with some of the factors including declining employment, poor healthcare, and rising alcoholism and drug addiction (including the likes of OxyContin, the legal opiate from Purdue) and suicide.

Another reason the US politicians actually need to reconnect with their electorates and offer them policy that helps not hinders.

Murray, I've known for 30+ years that life expectancy would one day start to fall. I'd suggest you put a bit of time finding out why. To do that you'd have to go back and find the source material, which means you'd have to read books. To do that you'd have to do some thinking about what might actually be relevant. I can assure you the predictions were made. Maybe you'll get lucky and find it with a google search, but me thinks best to find the original sources. He who predicts and is right has bragging rights. Doesn't mean the theory as to why is right, but it does give it a lot of weight in the absence of any other theory. Trouble is you seem unaware that a prediction has been made, or there is a solid foundation for it.

What the correct prediction actually means is that Covid-19 is a symptom. Moan all you like about symptoms, but you will never solve the problem with your eye is them.

Before you try to put the onus back on me, it is you that has become terrified for your life and lost the ability to think objectively, not me.

We live in a hedonistic society Scarfie. It is not hard to see that peoples lifestyle choices are out-pacing sciences attempts to protect them from the consequences of those lifestyles, but also the predations of policy choices made by the leaders of nations. So it takes no great amount of foresight to understand that for many they will die what is considered a premature death for a variety of reasons.

Bragging rights seem to be important to you, but frankly I just don't care.

And I disagree the COVID is a symptom of decreasing life expectancy. It is a consequence of human behaviour that is careless and/or ignorant of consequences, which makes it a contributor.

And again I am not terrified for my life. It is you who seems to be getting strident here. I am concerned however that there are those who are a part of society, but think their actions and choices have no impact on their part of society.

Tell me Scarfie, you have intimated this before, do you have any concerns that if people follow your advice that eventually YOU might catch COVID?

Really struggling to see the relevance of data that only runs to 2017. I've seen these trends put down to things like opioid addiction, obesity, diabetes etc. Many of the underlying diseases causing that change in trend are significant risk factors for coronavirus, incidentally.

That graph should worry everyone!

Our media has stressed that point - it dropped 9.5%. The 32.9% is the amount it would drop if the current rate continued for a year.

The graph is quarterly change in GDP. The third quarter (to September 30) will likely show a "dead cat bounce."

With Amazon, Apple and Facebook all reporting massive results, it should provide a little context for the New Zealand economy,its size and nature, somehow Hutt Valley or Thames Valley do not have the same ring as another well known valley.
NZD, although not the only pair, looks set to end the month breaking out against USD, Redux 2009.

NZD, although not the only pair, looks set to end the month breaking out against USD, Redux 2009.

All that’s really happening so far as the dollar’s demise may be concerned is that the euro is rising while the yen is falling. The former is largely irrelevant as it pertains to the real stuff behind all this, the shadow money eurodollar system’s clearly still-perturbed state, while the latter suggests worse to come within it (maybe just around the corner). Link

Rising EURO offers Italy no relief.

Italy’s failing, post covid lockdown economy which has revealed that the country has a staggering €39 billion of repayments due in September and €42billion of repayments in November.

Italy now has to either enter ESM austerity, again, or the ECB has to begin a massive money printing cycle to bail out the giant Italian economy. Link



Audaxes, your links are always on point. My day usually goes something like... read the morning briefing, open Audaxes links to read in the evening but once I went down a rabbit hole of your links and lost a whole Saturday.

You must spend a lot of time reading global economic news to be able to provide the links that you do, but I for one, find them incredibly insightful. Just want to say thanks!

COVID has crushed the Sino-America relationship. It won't be a surprise if we see a hot conflict between the US Navy and PLAN in the South China Sea in the next 6 to 12 months.

Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

We regard Pompeo’s statement on the possibility of dragging Moscow into the US anti-Chinese campaign as yet another naive attempt to complicate the Russian-Chinese partnership, and drive a wedge into the friendly ties between Russia and China. We intend to further strengthen our cooperation with China because we regard this cooperation as the most important factor in stabilising the situation around the world.

I think the US gets the message.

The United States finds it increasingly difficult to track Russian submarines with the potential to strike the US territory, US Lt. Gen. Glen VanHerck said on Tuesday.

"Russia develops strategic capabilities such as their submarines which now are a significant challenge for tracking and pose the potential for cruise missiles that can strike the homeland," VanHerck said during US Senate hearings to approve him as General And Commander of the US Northern Command.

He added that Russia would continue developing its cruise missiles, which also poses a serious threat for the United States. Link

USD imperialism on a march around the world.

Countries (there are a lot) that are taking WB and IMF loans in response to the COVID-19, there are numerous conditions:



Forcing countries into unnecessary US$ debt, makes you wonder. Link

Prof. Werner responds.

Especially since foreign money is unnecessary for domestic growth.
Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Economic Growth? A New Empirical Approach Applied to Spain
(2018). Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Economic Growth? A New Empirical Approach Applied to Spain. Economic Geography: Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 425-456.


In the interests of avoiding viral intrusions and filling my disk-drive up with uneccesary crap (visiting a single web site can download 200+ mb of pre-fetch junk). I follow a practice of not clicking on links I do not know. It would be helpful if you could provide a one sentence summary of the point you are trying to make, realising the written word is the most difficult form of communication wherein you might find a particular paragraph means something to you but might not to others

Thanks for the heads up. I will keep the health of your disc drive in mind.

Yesterday the Senate interrogated the 4 digital FANG behemoths, each evading serious questions, saying they will have to get back on those, Bezos got caught out on a couple of things. Today, after the market closed, they report spectacular earnings increases. In after-hours trading New York is UP strongly

They should leave Jeff Bizos alone , he is simply an broad -based online retailer , and he competes with some companies way bigger than Amazon , like WALMART for example

Amazon is 4x size of Walmart. 1.5T capitalisation vs 0.37

Regarding upcoming radical global finance system changes, two interesting YouTubes from the US this morning:
1) $15,000 gold price? Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff give forecasts (Part 1/3)
Money printing debasing and destroying confidence in currencies (especially USD), leading to massive flight to gold:

2) The War On Cash Is Over – Do This Now
Mark Moss on global trend to abandon/ban cash and move to digital currencies. He says based on events at similar extreme times in the last 100+ years this could happen very quickly:

Gird your loins ................ we are in for a long , slow, hard and expensive worldwide recession .

And we are delusional if we think we are going to escape it .

Expect many Kiwis to return home when things get really tough elsewhere , and many of those will need social assistance, putting huge pressure on the MSD

Expect markets we export to , to come under pressure , specifically Australia , and South east Asia, Japan and Korea , as demand for their manufactures , (or in the case of Australia, its commodities ) slumps .

Expect folks in NZ hospo and tourism to join the dole queue

Expect everyone from air-frame fitters to pilots and cabin staff to earn less from short hours , redundancies . The knock on effects of their reduced earnings will feed into consumer spending early next year .

Expect ESOL and other second rate colleges to fold

Expect Chinese tour operators to close up shop .

Expect Banks to report drops in headline earnings as margin income slumps and bad debts rise

Ironically, during the 1918 'Spanish Flu' epidemic, Australia was virtually the only country that managed to avoid the worst effects of it.
So what is the difference today? Neo-Liberal government; Scott Morrison's government is a USA sycophant.

NZ citizens can feel extremely lucky that they had a Labour Government and not a neo-liberal or neo -fascist or authoritarian government in power when the pandemic struck.

Labour was forced to go full LD as tgeyvhas been told that we were not prepared. The same would have happened with National.
It was the NZ NZ population that made it successful by adhering to the rules.

Kessa, I don't agree; under National we would have slavishly followed Australia and USA. National's mantra would have been: 'keep the economy open at all costs'; Victoria gives the perfect picture of where we would be right now.
We are also extremely lucky we didn't follow Winston Peter's precipitate demands only 3 or 4 weeks ago to open up a bubble with Australia.......not many people remember that!
It's been an education to see how he has dropped the subject since then and turned the fawning media's attention to focus on other equally fatuous topics such as retaining Ti Wai Point. He really is an ass that only appeals to the obtuse.

I disagree, National are the data-led results party rather than hopes and feelz all hui no doey Labour party. More likely they would have actually listened to the advice from the MOH (that they're not privy to in opposition), listened to a minister of health with a career background in health and established effective border quarantines earlier, just as they were calling for before the coaltion instituted it (it was their petition that finally drove the coalition to establishing proper boarder quarrantine), thereby reducing the need for such a long lockdown.

I see the usual meaningless rants on here did everyone miss the main point ? The USA GDP figures are now worse than in the great depression. Stop and let that sink in for a few seconds. These are historical all time worst figures. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see where things are heading from here.