US household sentiment sags; China expands using old paybook; Japan, Korea, Taiwan deliver mixed results; Hong Kong constitutional rule trashed; UST 10yr yield at 0.54%; oil holds and gold jumps back up; NZ$1 = 66.4 USc; TWI-5 = 69.6

US household sentiment sags; China expands using old paybook; Japan, Korea, Taiwan deliver mixed results; Hong Kong constitutional rule trashed; UST 10yr yield at 0.54%; oil holds and gold jumps back up; NZ$1 = 66.4 USc; TWI-5 = 69.6
Goat Island marine reserve, Leigh, Hauraki Gulf

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we are walking closer to crumbling cliffs.

The US release of personal income and expenditure data for June and the results seem unsustainable. Personal income fell -1.1% on top of the -4.4% fall in May. But personal spending rose +5.6% in June on top of the +8.5% rise in May. Dipping into household reserves and savings to maintain spending can only last so long, and this data suggests we are much closer to a widespread earthquake in the way American household budgets are managed.

American consumer sentiment is slipping too. It sank further in late July the coronavirus weighed increasing on the population. In the last four months, this sentiment Index has recorded a decline of -25% from the same period in 2019. The ending of some income support in the next month or so isn't going to help sentiment.

There is some good news on the industrial front however. The bellwether Chicago PMI rose more than expected and is now expanding after twelve months of continuous contraction. Particularly encouraging was the snap-back in new orders.

In China, their official factory PMI expanded marginally faster in July than in June. Their service sector PMI is expanding much faster, but slowed marginally in July than June. Both were boosted by construction activity, an official stimulus priority so it may not be sustained. And new order growth was modest in both sectors even if they were expanding. But we should note that the rival private sector survey, which will be released on Monday, has been recently posting more expansive results that these official surveys.

China has reverted to its old playbook of local construction projects and encouraging exports to weather this economic crisis. In fact, new data shows it granted NZ$175 bln in export tax relief in the first half of 2020. These rebates “effectively reduce the funding pressure on export companies in China and reduce their cost of funds.”

In Australia, the pandemic crisis in Victoria is dashing expectations of a V recovery, or in fact any recovery. Aussie complacency, right down to individual household levels, is undoing them fast now. (And New Zealand has even more entrenched complacency over the virus risks.) In Victoria, their state government is at a fiscal cliff, appealing to Canberra for emergency financial support. But the fiscal cliff is closer for all Australia now.

June industrial production in Japan has come in better than expected and positive from June. And retail sales in South Korea came in much better than expected and a large +6% rise compared with the same month in 2019. Both are positive early signals, just like the Chinese PMI data.

However, Taiwan GDP growth for Q2-2020 didn't eventuate and there was a surprise small contraction for them.

In Hong Kong, Beijing is pulling some crude strings, banning liberal candidates, postponing their election for a year, and allowing the existing Assembly to expire so they can appoint interim legislators. It is a pretty disgraceful sham, using the pandemic as cover. But it is what autocrats do.

In the EU, GDP dropped -14% in the June quarter from the same period in 2019 in the steepest one quarter drop in history. That follows a -2.5% fall in Q1-2020 on the same basis. Japan is yet to report, but they are expected to show a Q2-2020 fall of -26% annualised rate (about -9% in the second quarter alone).

In late trade, Wall Street is heading for a small -0.2% dip on the day. But it will cap a week where the S&P500 rose +0.8% and added +US$200 bln to its capitalisation. But for all of 2020, it is now virtually unchanged from where it started the year. The main action was on the tech stocks of the NASDAQ where big tech is posting stellar results. Overnight European markets were sharply lower, down about -1.5%. For the week the Frankfurt DAX30 ended down -4.0%, The Paris CAC40 was down -3.5%, and the London FTSE100 was down -3.7%.

Yesterday, Shanghai closed up +0.7% on the day to end the week up +3.5%. This was largely a tech rally too, although keep an eye on the new STAR market where more Chinese tech stocks are listed. Hong Kong was down-0.4% for the week and Tokyo fell a rather sharpish -4.6% to end the week on a downer.

Locally the ASX200 has been buoyed by their miners, but still ended the week down -1.6% as the Victorian pandemic dragged down most other sectors. The NZX50 was up +0.8% for the week on the back of FPH and a range of small caps.

The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 17,335,000 and that is up +226,000 since this time yesterday. Global deaths reported now exceed 674,000 (+5,000).

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +65,400 from this time yesterday to 4,669,000. US deaths are now just over 156,000 and a death rate of 471/mln (+4/mln). And the net number of people actively infected in the US rose +23,700 yesterday to 2,217,000.

In Australia, there have now been 16,905 cases reported, another +602 since this time yesterday, and still very much concentrated in Victoria but also small pockets in both Sydney's suburbs, and now Queensland. Their death count is up to 196 (+7). Their recovery rate has slipped to 59%. There are now 6729 active cases in Australia (+373) and almost all are community transfer.

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed changed at just over 0.54% and now above the record low it reached in the past 24 hours. Their 2-10 curve is unchanged at +43 bps. But their 1-5 curve is flatter at +10 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also flatter at +44 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 0.84%. The China Govt 10yr is up another +3 bps at 2.99%. But the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is sharply lower and now at 0.75% after another -6 bps drop overnight.

The gold price is up +US$20 today to US$1,973/oz. It did get as high as US$1,980/ox earlier today.

Oil prices are firmer but by not very much today. They are now just over US$40/bbl in the US and the international price is now over US$43/bbl. The US rig count is little-changed.

And the Kiwi dollar is ending the week softer than yesterday, but back at a similar level to this time last week at 66.4 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are softer than a week ago at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are -¾c lower in a week at 56.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has slipped to 69.6 and about -50 bps lower for the week.

The bitcoin price is firmer today, up +2.3% since this time yesterday to US$11,298. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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99 Comments

Meanwhile NZ domestic tourism is busy - plane full this morning, good deals at hotels (seem to have knocked off the international premium), people out spending, restaurants busy.

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That is one reward for not having the virus in our community. I hope the judge comes down hard on these quarantine escapees.

(From above) " Dipping into household reserves and savings to maintain spending can only last so long"
But of course, that's the USA, where "Almost 30 Million in U.S. Didn’t Have Enough to Eat Last Week" and that won't be coming here...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-29/almost-30-million-in-...

Hmmmm

On Sunday, May 17, however, Chairman Powell appeared on the CBS News program 60 Minutes and…went nuts. Blatantly. Brazenly. There was no fedspeak here, the Greenspan-perfected art of using a lot of words to say practically nothing.

Jay Powell, somewhat out of nowhere, changed the whole ballgame. When CBS reporter Scott Pelley asked if since the crisis in March he had “flooded the system with money” Powell responded emphatically, “Yes. We did. That’s another way to think about it. We did.” Link

Who got the money?

The question on everyone’s mind, the only one that truly matters, is what comes next. That’s been the whole thing from the very beginning. For whatever reasons, right or wrong, they turned the economy off. Can it be turned right back on again? Link

I like this part:

They really have no idea what they are doing. There isn’t a single part of the market/money/economy framework that these people get right; they simply recite passages from ancient textbooks written a very long time ago about a kind of system that hasn’t been relevant in ages.

They're called economists

We're in a good position at the moment. We have to have a plan though for a world that fully reopens in the medium term where COVID is part of the yearly seasonal sicknesses. We can't be complacent and rest chuffed about our success yet.

With the Northern hemisphere starting autumn and then winter and therefore flu season, I dont think we are going to see a decrease of cases and an improvement in economic conditions for over half a year.

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It's impossible to know and everyone is deluding themselves keep making bold predictions about what will or wont happen with the virus and pandemic. We're only 6 months in. Plenty of pandemics just burn themselves out (like SARSCoV-1). Yet others become milder and eventually become endemic but sometimes more lethal. Several "waves" are common in a viral pandemic but dependent on so many factors. The health, lifestyle and health services of a particular demographic, the pandemic response, mutation of the virus etc etc. We certainly don't know enough at this stage to predict any of that with any accuracy. We don't know the degree of inferred immunity or the degree of post-viral damage and long term effects.

We can make an educated guess that infection numbers will sky rocket in winter as they have done in Ozzy. Even with decrease death rates hospitals are going to be swamped, the economic situation and the US going into stagnation election mode will be three factors are in play that will have a great probability of big dodo's hitting the fan.
Lots of claims that it's all over, nothing to worry about but the infection rates and economic situations carry on regardless. The 'there is hope', 'light at the end of the tunnel' stories need to be kept up to keep the masses calm.

With a novel virus, it's always best to plan for the worst because not doing so can be devastating. But that doesn't mean the worst will necessarily happen. I agree there is a strong likelihood that the virus will peak again in autumn/winter but we are better prepared globally for the virus at this stage. A winter peak is what everyone has been trying to avoid because it will coincide with flu season and generally busier healthcare systems. However, there is also a chance the virus will lessen in severity, that it will burn itself out, or indeed become more lethal. There could be many outcomes, which we can't know. Which is why it is best to plan for all inevitabilities and not be too wedded to any particular outcome. We need to try and prepare to an extent for a range of outcomes.

I echo what you say. We just don't know. And that has surprised me with modern communications and ease of processing giant databases and comparative ease of DNA analysis. I had expected knowledge and hoped for good news while fearing bad news (rapid random mutations causing vaccines not to work, increased transmission, more deaths and disabling). It is this 'impossible to know' that troubles me.
Just looking at the comparative stats for countries with the cases per million and the deaths per million and seeing how they have evolved over the last few months I'm coming to one conclusion: Covid-19 kills obese people. When NZ finished its level-4 shutdown it was queues for fast food. A lesson to be learned?

There's a good reason the data scientists are being kept out of the fold - "they're not epidemiologists" and much of the data doesn't suit the narrative. It's easier to manipulate the rhetoric and whip up emotion of the epidemiological angle than the data. This guy is case in counter point https://mobile.twitter.com/ethicalskeptic

I have one thing to say to your conclusion.. what a freakn crock!!! C19 kills randomly and dispassionately,

Randomly? I realise the stats are difficult with countries counting both cases and deaths differently and with outbreaks that overwhelm any counting and differences with rest homes but how do you explain these figures for cases/million, deaths/million
14,210 473 USA
8,918 5 Singapore
7,959 568 Sweden
7,915 82 Saudi Arabia
5,866 849 Belgium
7,176 59 Belarus
Of course there are other factors such as age and the variety of mutations and slim people recovering from Covid-19 but with severely impaired health. Each indiviual case is unique but with 17 million cases we should be able to identify factors we can control

It's not a crock Hook. Covid-19 is similar to other SARS and ARDS inducing viruses, in that in some people the first immune system response fails (or for genetic reasons they don't have the first response but this is rare), and then the second immune system response can lead to a cytokine storm, which is a huge spike in inflammation. Obesity and related diseases (T2 diabetes and heart disease) are also forms of inflammation. People in this demographic already have high inflammation in their body, so if their body responds with a cytokine storm and they already have a high level of inflammation in the body, it is a further problem. We already know that people with T2 diabetes don't heal as well and are more prone to infections than non-diabetic persons and I personally believe that is related to the overall systemic breakdown, including immuno dysfunction related to inflammation. Obesity, t2 diabetes and heart disease are all related to modern lifestyle and diet. It is visceral obesity that is the most inflammatory. A large percentage of overweight women store fat in their lower body where it does not cause inflammation to anywhere near the same degree but any fat around the middle and specifically around the organs is inflammatory, which might explain why men of a certain age are more likely to experience a severe or fatal infection from Covid-19. You can also have someone who appears to be a healthy weight, but who actually have fat around their organs causing the inflammation.

As with any virus, Covid-19 is also more likely to kill those who are less healthy, nutritionally deficient, either for a biological reason or poverty etc but being poor and being obese are also strongly correlated in many countries. There are many other co-factors. If you already have damaged lungs of a compromised immune system etc.

In our city, if one looks around and observes, one sees a discouraging number of obese young women with heavy legs, pendulous backsides and enormous chests defying gravity. Whereas when you look around I never see any seriously overweight women in the over 55 age group wandering around the city or shopping malls and supermarkets. They're all gone. Just the observations of one. Watch and observe.

In certain places in the world there is now obesity and T2 diabetes in toddlers, which was unheard of a few decades ago, when it was referred to as "adult onset diabetes". Certainly obesity in the younger demographic is significantly more common than it was. We are getting progressively fatter and ultimately inflamed every year.

Security at motels just granted 2 year contracts. There’s a clue huh?

More crack downs on HK citizens. So expect to see more Chinese money fleeing to find safe refuge in offshore housing markets. BBC news: Hong Kong 'seeking arrest' of fleeing activists. "Police in Hong Kong are seeking the arrest of six pro-democracy activists living in exile in Western countries, media reports say." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53616583

. So expect to see more Chinese money fleeing to find safe refuge in offshore housing markets

Yes, there are rumours that hordes of Cantonese speaking people will be soon roaming the streets of NZ and other English-speaking countries with suitcases of money pleading with residents to hand over their houses. Granny Herald might even be doing an investigative report on how it will all unfold.

Joking apart, it won't last for long. Article from asiatimes: Beijing to keep eye on digital yuan transactions. "Starting in July, banks in China’s Hubei province will record serial numbers for all cash transactions over the 100,000-yuan threshold; and reporting gross figures to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).
Eventually, the digital yuan will be deployed to provide real-time insights on transaction for Chinese regulators – with the ultimate aim of stamping out currency fraud in the country." https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/beijing-to-track-large-digital-yuan-transa...

Speaking to a HK Kiwi guy I know the other day to get his view.
" very few will leave, there will be a lot of blood, unfortunately "

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Just read that the US Mint has stopped producing gold and silver coins sighting Covid as the reason. Just when you need it you can’t get it.

Increased scarcity and increased demand. Interesting times.

Plus JPM and HSBC putting pressure on Perth Mint, mining production down. Something big going in behind closed doors.
Keep access to physical limited to the big boys and away from the masses and let the price skyrocket?

Occam's razor suggests it's probably simpler than that. There may be extending influence to stop a run on currencies. Whatever the case, this is going to be a boon for Bitcoin which is immune to regulation, highly portable and immediately transferable.

Well yeah, hadn't thought of that but sounds like fair logic.

It's part of the ethos for which Bitcoin was invented. A peer-to-peer currency and method of value exchange that is outside the existing fractional reserve financial system. The GFC opened a lot of people's eyes to how flawed the existing financial system is and we all wanted an alternative. Some people see Bitcoin/cryptos as a speculative investment, but many of us started out mining in the early days because of lack of faith in the globalised banking system (including the Reserve Banks) after the GFC and hoped it would be used as an alternative currency, like gold and silver used to be. A large part of the crypto community remain very sceptical about the current banking system, owning cryptos is a vote of no confidence in fiat currency and fractional reserve banking.

My last purchase was Silver and Gold Maples, two weeks ago. The sellers site now states no stock. At the time, they told me they had 30,000 Silver Maples on back order. Value wise, that’s less than an average house in my suburb but it gives a sense as to the demand for physical out there. If the World fiat currencies do turn to crap, very few will be able to walk in at the last minute and buy physical.

Just got some silver in from NZ Mint. Quoted to be 2 to 3 weeks wait time but arrived in a week. 1kg blocks so maybe mints are holding the coins back to cast the bigger blocks. The COMEX will be screaming out for the larger blocks to satisfy their delivery demand as well.

Just got some silver in from NZ Mint.

Much easier ways to get exposure to the silver price. I'm on the Gold Silver Standard group on Telegram (Ainslie Bullion and silver-backed tokens). Some quite inane questions from people joining recently.

Yes, I've been contemplating giving that a crack but wanted to be in physical then hit the ups and downs with that.
It would have been nice to have sold the other day at the $26.20 and buy again at the $23.20 a couple of days later.

Probably want to do some homework before "giving it a crack." Buying silver bullion in a country like NZ isn't the best option in my opinion. You have issues with liquidity, but then it all depends on what your objective is.

Long term insurance, wealth protection physical. Make some bucks playing the up and downs pulling the gains.
I'll watch a You Tube clip or two and I'll be off running.... lol. I'll do my homework inside and out, risk is fine with me when it is only perceived risk.
Any reading You Tube links, advice you could offer would be appreciated.

Buy physical for the above reasons, but if you're going to start "trading" frequently theres more efficient ways to do it than physical.

Perth Mint and Ainslie Bullion offer products that will assist with this.

Cheers will do my home work inside and out on that.
I'm expecting some big fluctuations in the silver market in the next while like we witnessed the other day.
Silver market volatility clip.
https://youtu.be/wvB8ViVP2KE

I dont deal PM as you know, but as far as capital gains, dont do day trading. Stick with the trends and go big not a couple dollars here and there. Yes it's satisfying knowing you got the increase but day trading is also a taxable activity, buying with the intention of resale is taxable. If you're really in for long term wealth protection you wont bother with trading.

It's that or real work mate, dosen't sound like fun unless I do something for myself.
Dose a boat or a hut in the bush count as an office and tax deductible (tounge in cheek)?

Actually Kezza a 40ft game boat could be a tax deductible office if you've got a good accountant.

Depreciable at best, not a lot on the 200k or more build cost

The 450K buy and mooring costs would add up I'm sure, as would the maintenance and the running costs for "client relations/marketing" And there's always the bow girl costs for "entertainment"

The bow girl would be a fringe benefit lol

Why not spec homes using an apprentice. Arent there subsidies for taking on apprentices, are you LBP

Yep an LBP.
Thinking about doing one or two little 'rent a room' box on skids for sale or rent. Guessing that a few young ones will be going back to their parents with their partners in tow. See if there is demand and keep trucking if there is. Figure around the $8k mark each to in materials. Easy to do part time, when I feel like it or not if I've got something else on.
I've got a little twist to them in mind to make them more user friendly.

Sounds good. Also good escape for the hubbys' hobbies.

I've found that the faster I fill lists the faster and more frequent they appear. A year to fill a list is about right.
I'm fairly confident that will be able to flick a few units arround $16k to $20k area or rent them out for a passive income.

Buy physical for the above reasons, but if you're going to start "trading" frequently theres more efficient ways to do it than physical.

I owned GLD for 15 years until Jan and only ever bought and sold it once. ETFs and tokens don't exist purely for trading. However, they're far more liquid than physical. GLD suited my purposes far more than physical gold.

Sounds like where I want to be, just learning to walk before I run.

The Perth Mint tokens look superb, but they're only available to U.S. and Aussie citizens at the moment. But once again, you want to look at liquidity. A redeeming future is that the token can be exchanged for physical. I'm happy that I discovered PMGOLD becuase it ticks all the boxes I'm looking for and it enabled me to get out of GLD. I had set up an ETrade account in Australia back in mid-2000s (platform since sold to ANZ) so that is where I can buy. A commentator on interest dot co suggested that he couldn't buy PMGOLD through ASB's trading platform (which has access to the ASX). I'm sure you could buy it through a broker.

Having access to the ASX is good because you can also buy U.S. listing such as GDXJ and SLVP.

Cool, cheers.

They will still keep producing at a reduced rate, but only gold or silver at any time, not gold and silver at the same time.

Saw this the other day - reinforces the medium of exchange concept attached to what can be considered money - United States Mint Statement on Circulating Coins

^ link ' We ask that the American public start spending their coins, depositing them, or exchanging them for currency at financial institutions or taking them to a coin redemption kiosk. The coin supply problem can be solved with each of us doing our part.'

Am I reading this correctly, they want the coins cashed in?
They want the PM's flowing back into their hot little hands, I doubt they will come back out the other end.

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My daughter flew in from Ca this last week, in AKL hotel, said only 25 people on flight out of LA. She is a violinist so happy stuck in hotel with her violin practicing 10 hours a day, wonder how the next door units are coping?
Someone tried to escape last week but police nailed him, perhaps 3 hours of scales drove him crazy.

How long has it been since your daughter has been home?

She has been on a study visa and in Ca for a year, she may have gone back to the Uk but that looked a bit messy so she came home.

Welcome. Wise decision. No doubt more than a little relief for all concerned.

As a tax payer happy to pay for her quarantine fee. However how much work will she have in NZ or will you get her working on the farm?

I think we already pay enough tax to cover her. She is a clever little thing and I think already has work lined up, she's an artist and likes painting but can focus and study intensely. She's like a little fox terrier, can hold her own against bigger foe. Funny little kid, came 30th in California/ Nevada high school ski championships, also competed in varsity level breaststroke while at high school, very high grades. I think music really helps concentration. My wife's family has thrown some really clever people over the years, my side of the family should level that out.
Her boyfriend will no doubt follow soon but will have to pay quarantine costs. He is also an academic, started teaching in Ca last year, they continue to pay him up to start of this term, if school doesn't start then the state will stop paying teachers, wait for fireworks.

AJ, I've been pondering your offer / recommendation about learning guitar, got a guitar sorted now, what next?

best if you can go classical, try to find someone who can teach you and show you how to read music at the same time. If you have acoustic steel string it should be really easy to get a teacher, it's just finding someone who can fit your learning style. Guitars are all different but lots of pretty good cheap guitars out there. Play music you love.

It should be fun and be interesting to see how you get on. One lesson should need six or seven hours practice. I've just memorised 'Jesu Joy of man's desiring, took a couple of weeks.

I can lend my wife's guitar (she dosent play but has one), just a standard everyday run of the mill.
Think I'll do a couple of You Tube clips and my daughter knows a little bit. Can't be that hard... Looking forward to it. A new trick for the old dog to keep my fat builders fingers and brain nimble.

steel strings are tough on fingers. good luck.

if you have a teacher it makes you reach goals and they teach the foundations. You can start on something simple like 'Ode to Joy' I takes a few months to get muscle memory. especially if you are not a teenager anymore.

https://www.classicalguitarshed.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AAA-Beeth...

second page has tab so you can cheat just this once

Classical Gas by Mason Williams - fond memories of cruising the Hutt Valley in the late 60s:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEzyrpfrPEI

You don't have to play fast to make beautiful music. It's a trap to avoid.

Aj, delightful. Love & pride. And I think you will find just like I have, when the granddaughter arrives, well then, you have the joy of it, as per Yogi, it’s déjà vu all over again!

Sorry, reported by mistake trying to hit read more........ Please consider a redesign of the placement of this button. I hit it too often.

I agree. Me too.

So um, what's up with the covid positive case in Sydney from Akl?

Should have kept up the community testing

Not with the election so close!

Testing outgoing passengers could be an option.

Sometimes I find it amazing what a generation went through. We lost a very dear family friend last night, she was suffering from dementia a bit but otherwise we thought healthy.
She was born I think in 1937 in Nth France, her father an older brother were in the resistance, caught by the Germans towards the end of the war, then shot in front of her and her family.
She ended up being shipped to the States when she was a teenager and living in New york and then Phoenix.

Aye, recently heard of the death of a former business connection in Belgium. As a teenager he had been forced labour in a salt mine. Didn’t see daylight for nine months. Stuffed lungs for remainder of life. Still got through to his late eighties.

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Andrewj
Agreed, many New Zealanders have past experiences we are oblivious to; and it is not only the older generation.
Took a taxi to Wellington Airport the other day - driver was Cambodian.
He was surprised that I was aware of the Pol Pot regime. He and his brother escaped in 1978 - lost the remainder of his family. He spoke only a little of his horrific experience, but said much about how lucky we are In New Zealand with security, a great quality of life, and lots of opportunities.
Many other examples of recent immigrants - who are now proud New Zealanders - who have been refuges from war-torn countries and faced considerable atrocities.
Unfortunately most know little of these - in comparison our common gripes and bitches are embarrassingly insignificant.

Brilliant post P8

Looking over the ditch is not so rosy. The latest FMA vid has a lot of details on how the economy and property is doing over there:
https://youtu.be/QeRadr6c_U8

A few key stats/comments:
Consumer confidence down (property investors are the most negative)
Super fund withdrawals higher than expected - sign of stress
Dwelling approvals down and dropping quickly across all states (states trying to stimulate construction with bribes for buyers)
Official unemployment forecast to be 9% by end of year (from from 5%+ pre-covid) (he thinks is really more like 15%), under-utilised more like 20%, and GDP way down
COVID has catalysed problems that were already there
Stimulus is being dialled back
This will be a 3-5 yer grind - job losses and house foreclosures
Migration driver to RE slowed to crawl, and overseas demand for property,,local investors and student demand way down
10m properties in Oz, and 1.2m are empty (a lot is high-rise).
House turnover down significantly - according to CoreLogic average prices down, a bit so far (but Perth down 22% in last year), auction clearing rates down
Household debt is massive (close to 200% debt to income ration)
Personal, housing and business lending dropping
Rental listing way up in Melbourne and ACT - masses of rental properties available
"Many property investors getting seriously bruised"
65% of households have had income drop in last 12 months
95% of households report cost of living has increased in last year
Nearly 70% of households have lost wealth in last year
Mortgage and rental stress (as measured by cashflow) - in June mortgage stress at all time high of 39.1% and still heading up (its structural, to do with unemployment). About 10% of mortgage holders talking to banks about how to manage the debt
There is a lot of detail in there looking at individual properties across the states and seeing drops in value.

I hope we dodge some of the bullets hitting the Lucky Country.

well look at this picture on NY subway in rush hour, there's going to be consequences.

https://twitter.com/gregkellyusa/status/1289349895271272449/photo/1

Ha! Even the tumble weed has pulled out.
The US property youtube geeks I watch have been saying for months that little cities will do quite well as people pull out of the biggies in numbers.

wonder what they will do for jobs?

Work from home, with the odd trip into the big smoke is the theory. eg. Facebook - permanently:
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/5/21/21266570/facebook-remote-work-from-...

I keep hearing deluded or optimistic reporters still suggesting our recovery could be V -shaped .

I suggest they took a look at Donald Trumps signature to see the shape of things going forward

Yep and it's going to get ugly: BBC Coronavirus: Millions of Americans set to lose key $600 benefit. "A $600 ($905 NZD) jobless benefit paid weekly to tens of millions of unemployed Americans expired overnight after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a deal on its extension."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53619910

Thanks big tech.
@JamesTodaroMD
After 4 mos of appeals since it was taken down, Google finally uncensored our initial paper on HCQ in treatment of COVID-19.
It’s strange Google reversed this decision IMMEDIATELY before appearing in front of congress today to discuss censorship.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFi...

Ingraham: The truth about hydroxychloroquine

https://youtu.be/RexUJeWmzSE

A new study released on hydroxychloroquine for use on COVID-19 patients is shockingly irresponsible and, as top virologists are saying, perhaps even agenda-driven.

Certainly some one is trying to make money off hydroxychloroquine. I wouldn't be surprised to find that Trumps family had invested shares in it, which would explain why Trump is so keen to promote it

Perhaps, but don't think so.
It, HCQ, really seems to do the job, see for yourself.

An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)
https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFi...

Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-
label non-randomized clinical trial

https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/edit

You're having a laugh right? Did you even click on those links? Ain't no evidence there.

It is an off patent, dirt cheap generic drug so it is no money spinner - hence big pharma don't want to hear about it.

Obviously nobody else watched the breaking news all over US news channels including CNN and FOX in the early hours of this morning: Trump has suggested that it would be a good thing to defer this year's election; fortunately, even the republican heavy-weights like Mitch McConnell thought this was a bad idea. But as voting by mail in the November election is going to be allowed there are many ways Trump could 'interfere' with the election, for example by de-funding the postal service in democratic states. There are many other ways Trump could sway things.
So hold on to your seats as we could be looking at a replication of the means by which Hitler gained power in the late 1920s and early 1930s in Germany. We could be witness to how an authoritarian leader gains perpetual power.

No way in the States, a hell of a lot of guns that would be impossible to suppress. No battle lines, gorilla warfare on roids. A portion of the armed forces will revolt and the crazy will go down in spades.

Yeah, could get exciting, but I don't think the Praetorian Guard is loyal enough to Trump for him to cling on.
They'll mostly be glad to see the back of him.

I never thought I would see the day when ALL news emanating from USA right-wing sources cannot be trusted.

Long Term Planning at work - NZ Style

Kelvin Davis annouinces
126 Tourism businesses receive
NZD $230 million in grants and subsidies

That's an average of $1.5 million each

Tourism is dead for foreseeable future. What's the point in spending money on it? Mothballing facilities (with minimum upkeep maintenance is really about the limit of what is sensible spending until there is a plan for bringing tourism back to NZ (and a global economy to support it)