Breakfast briefing: China moves to exclude the greenback

US jobs signals weak; Vancouver house sales jump; China moves to exclude USD from trade; Aussie new car sales very weak; UST 10yr yield at 0.54%; oil unchanged but gold hits another new record high; NZ$1 = 66.4 USc; TWI-5 = 69.3

6th Aug 20, 7:20am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the bounce-back in jobs growth is now very uncertain.

The US reports its non-farm payrolls report this weekend and analysts are expecting July jobs to have bounced back by +1.6 mln. That would mean that since March, 9 mln people have been re-employed of the 21.5 mln who lost their jobs in the period. The precursor ADP Employment Report was out today and analysts expected it to show the July bounceback at 1.5 mln. In the end however it was only a paltry +167,000 and a worrying portent for the non-farm payrolls release.

August kicks off the withdrawal of the special US$600 pandemic boost for joblessness and 870,000 workers will progressively lose that in this month. As many as 20 mln more will lose it next month. It's an income withdrawal that the US economy will notice.

The widely-watched ISM services PMI did provide a sentiment boost however, bouncing back with a second strong monthly expansion in July, one that was better than expected. But perhaps it is a jobless recovery? Certainly the employment subcategory suggests that with a further contraction within this result. Businesses are taking the new orders but don't believe the situation will last so aren't hiring.

In Canada, the Vancouver housing market is taking off again. July sales were +22% higher than in the same month a year ago. June sales were up almost +10% on the same basis. An influx of people from Hong Kong might be driving the resurgence. The same new impetus doesn't seem to be happening in Toronto.

China is moving faster to wean itself off its reliance on the US dollar as trade tensions mount. It is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies for three years in its onshore foreign exchange markets in an attempt to get traders to skip using the greenback. The NZ dollar is one currency that gets the waiver. The Australian currency does not. This mirrors what it is doing in tech.

Indonesia’s economy suffered its sharpest downturn since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. In Q2-2020 their economy contracted by more than -5% in its first contraction since then. Millions are out of work there and social pressure can build quickly in the world's fourth largest country, one with a population more than ten times as large as its southern neighbour, Australia.

In Australia, new car sales were almost -12% lower in July than the same month a year ago (NZ = +3%) and year to date are running -19% behind (NZ = -12%). SUVs there claimed 50% of car sales (NZ = 70%).

The RBA has signaled it will be buying $500 mln in April 2023 bonds after the three-year bond rate held above the central bank's 0.25% target. It';s all part of official moves to keep interest rates low.

Another day, another new rise for iron ore prices which are now at a year-on-year high.

On Wall Street today, the S&P500 is up +0.5% so far in afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets rose a similar amount. Yesterday, Shanghai ended up less than +0.2%, Hong Kong was up +0.6% and Tokyo was down -0.3%. The ASX200 fell -0.6% as bank share took a beating. The NZX50 Capital Index was down a marginal -0.1%.

In Australia, there have now been 19,444 COVID-19 cases reported, another +715 overnight, and still very much concentrated in Victoria. There were +12 more in Sydney. Their death count is up to 247 (+15). Their recovery rate is now just over 56%. There are now 8262 active cases in Australia (+555) and almost all are community transfer.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 18,609,000 and that is up +250,000 since this time yesterday. Global deaths reported now exceed 702,000 (+6,000).

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +50,000 from this time yesterday to 4,938,000. US deaths are now just over 160,800 and a death rate of 486/mln (+4/mln). And the net number of people actively infected in the US rose overnight to 2,273,000.

The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps today to now just on 0.54% and off its record low. Their 2-10 curve is unchanged at +42 bps. And their 1-5 curve is similar at +9 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is a little steeper at +46 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is back up +4 bps at 0.85%. The China Govt 10yr is holding at 2.98%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also holding at its new lower level of just on 0.75%.

The gold price is higher yet again today, up +US$21 to US$2039/oz and a new record high. At one point it reached US$2056/oz overnight trading. The silver price is up proportionately more, up +3.8% overnight and that too was up +4.7% at one point earlier.

Oil prices are stable today. They are now just on US$42/bbl in the US and the international price is now just on US$45/bbl.

But the Kiwi dollar has firmer marginally against the US currency and now at 66.4 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are lower at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down at 56.1 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now a little softer at 69.3.

The bitcoin price is up +4.1% today at US$11,674. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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108 Comments

by Tillers | 6th Aug 20, 7:25am 1596655505

Only way is up baby for Auckland house prices!

by richard1965 | 6th Aug 20, 7:37am 1596656260

It seems to be the trend not only in Auckland but in many countries so coronavirus has been a boon to asset class be it stock or housing or gold.

Make hay while the sun shines.

by Chairman Moa | 6th Aug 20, 10:19am 1596665998

Not across the ditch.. ! But we, in NZ, are in different planet

by apizap | 6th Aug 20, 2:43pm 1596681795

As long as govts keep printing money asset classes will keep rising. It is a failed formula in so many instances and the covid era has certainly proven to be one of them. In my view money printing was a knee jerk reaction by govts that were essentially devoid of any strategically meaningful policy to respond to covid. If the music stops tomorrow you better hope you're close to a chair.

by Pietro | 6th Aug 20, 2:04pm 1596679475

I was quite shocked when I went to Auckland yesterday. Sold signs everywhere, and I looked more closely when I got back home to north Rodney. Again, Sold signs all over the place, especially anything life-stylish. But when you factor in even a $1 million mortgage at 2.5%, it's only $500 a week interest free. That's cheaper than rent for a decent home. Is it madness? Not too sure any more. Let's hope some legislation to deter 'investors' is imminent. Stamp duty on anything other than the family home, absolutely no tax breaks, longer bright line test??? Let's put families before quick profits for speculators. Great to see Labour protecting the rights of tenants, too. I can remember only too well going to auctions a few years back with young relatives and seeing them in tears as 'investors' backed by foreign hot money outbid them. An utter disgrace.

by frazz | 6th Aug 20, 7:34am 1596656062

And gold, silver and BTC...infinity and beyond!

by Shamino | 6th Aug 20, 8:26am 1596659184

Square stock up 10% after revealing monster increase in profits from allowing bitcoin purchasing via its cash app

by frazz | 6th Aug 20, 7:38am 1596656329

JK..lobbying hard for his mates so he can play golf TOGETHER.
"Why don't we let in rich Americans who want to build a house in New Zealand? Who cares? They're in Mangawhai or somewhere, they are going to create thousands of jobs"

"Why do we care if someone who lives in New York wants to spend $10 million building a house in Auckland, using NZ craftsmen and NZ tradespeople?"

Golfing and tourism resorts built by two American billionaires, including the Tara Iti golf course near Mangawhai, received almost $1 million in wage subsidies between them during the Covid-19 lockdown.

by GV 27 | 6th Aug 20, 7:47am 1596656839

If that's round one of lock-down, that would mean the subsidies are underwriting over a hundred jobs that have been created.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 8:52am 1596660726

Importing investment into NZ should be happening already. It brings jobs and money to pay off debt.
Sure it needs to be regulated more.
Roads are not the be all and end all in getting this country moving / stopping it descend further.

by murray86 | 6th Aug 20, 8:58am 1596661120

Here's a question Kezz; are we just picking the low hanging fruit? Looking for the easy marks? Rich individuals who want to 'buy their way to a save haven'? Or alternatively targetting desirable industries that will develop new technology, create jobs and export income? For example a couple of weeks ago it had been reported that a large Taiwanese electronics company was building a new factory in the US, diversifying away from the high risk locale of Taiwan and the greedy eyes of the CCP. Why aren't NZ trade officials out there actively identifying and talking to such companies to set up satellite factories in neutral NZ?

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 9:35am 1596663352

Mate, anyone with business nous would be out there encouraging business investments that were beneficial to NZ for the short, mid and long term to capitalize on our CV freeish investment.
All I hear is build roads... and Kiwis arent jumping up and down wanting more viable longterm investments??
I get it that we have a Labour Govt and they are wired to want to help people but surely bringing jobs and money into NZ in a controled manner would help Labour to help Kiwis.
All very reactionary at present, we need to move to proactive.
There would be hundreds of beneficial businesses out there that tick environment, employment, longevity, export and a host of other boxes that would suit both them and NZ...

by murray86 | 6th Aug 20, 9:52am 1596664356

Agreed.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 11:14am 1596669282

Yes it is the low apples being grasped at presently, when we should be shooting for the stars.

by Hamish | 6th Aug 20, 10:21am 1596666080

The green party would love this! Wealth tax galore....

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 10:26am 1596666410

What they should be thinking is green technology entering NZ.

by ham n eggs | 6th Aug 20, 2:02pm 1596679371

green tech?
which is what exactly...
just more marketing gobblygook

Overshoot is overshoot
The greener option is ALWAYS to not consume

by Pietro | 6th Aug 20, 2:07pm 1596679649

Err, Microsoft, Datacom, numerous Hollywood studios..... they're here already. And golf is a huge tourist draw for folk who don't hire a barely driveable van and **** in rivers.

by Gold Kiwi | 6th Aug 20, 6:32pm 1596695567

Datacom is a New Zealand company, founded in 1965.

by Ezy | 6th Aug 20, 9:19am 1596662395

We're the worst country to setup any sort of physical manufacturing, because of our geographic isolation. Technology though where you can ship something instantly down a wire - we should be going all in.

by frazz | 6th Aug 20, 10:13am 1596665606

Agreed - Xero comes to mind

by Albert2020 | 6th Aug 20, 9:20am 1596662441

Exactly, great comment. JKs suggestion is just another one of his short-sighted and lazy policies that does nothing to diversify NZ's economy.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 9:28am 1596662896

We all know there would be plenty of options great fit options out there for NZ. What we arent getting / seeing is the Govt or anyother party talking about encouraging them to relocate to NZ.
Transport.. Buy some ships and run them at a reduced cost to keep transport costs down.
Not all industries require bulky transport.

by Kauri | 6th Aug 20, 9:45am 1596663959

John Key's comment reminded why I couldn't stand the guy as PM. Lazy, short-sighted thinking were hall-marks of his era. If the only way we can dig our way out of the recession is to sell our land and build houses for rich foreigners we are buggered. Might as well just say thanks for the beads and blankets and accept a future of serfdom. BTW - I'm not saying the current lot are much, if any, better.

by GV 27 | 6th Aug 20, 9:38am 1596663518

The 'current lot' got themselves in by promising radical and transformational change. In Key's defence, he could barely acknowledge there was a problem. Who is worse? No sodding idea, all I know is who has ended up poorer for it.

by ShoreThing | 6th Aug 20, 9:53am 1596664407

Go and watch/read some of Key's campaign speeches, the guy was very vocal about the problems facing NZ on the campaign trail. It was only once in power that he couldn't acknowledge them any more, they became "signs of our success".

by GV 27 | 6th Aug 20, 10:04am 1596665048

Ah yes, the housing crisis which was vitally important in opposition, which lead to the nine long years of neglect, which lead to the three years of literally the same thing except we pretend it's better, somehow. A glorious chapter in our nationhood.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 10:52am 1596667972

Come on, if we are going to look at Nationals screw up we need to look at Labour not being able to implement Kiwi Build.
The past is the past, what we need to focus on is the future. There are some sizable capable brains on here, let's look and talk over viable forward moving o objectives.

by GV 27 | 6th Aug 20, 12:35pm 1596674148

Frankly Kezza, I don't know what the future is. We have a generation of recent FHBs who have taken on unreasonable debt to put a roof over their heads to give some stability for their families, but we all know this isn't sustainable. We have low wages but a business community that insists on pricing NZ goods (even the stuff we make and grow here) like we're some sort of Swiss outpost. The basics of getting by (after paying for food, rent/mortgage and the time lost to congestion) on top of enormous working hours for low pay is race-to-the-bottom stuff. We have a public sector that is insulated from the greatest economic disruption in modern history that gets paid regardless of output while many in the private sector have had wages or hours slashed. We have kicked so many cans down the road that we're faced with an entire tip full of the things. National's 2008 election platform regurgitated isn't going to cut it, but I find the idea Labour can contest an election with no policy whatsoever and not have to answer for three years of broken promises to be arrogant in the extreme. The only losers here are all of us.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 12:53pm 1596675199

I read a comment awhile ago something along these lines. 'we have a National Party that still thinks it is in power struggling to adapt and a Labour Party that still thinks it is not in power'.
Not much has changed, 'ground hog day'.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 10:53am 1596667999

JK's view is a non event and we shouldn't give them any airtime IMO.
We should be asking for ecoviable / export producing / job producing industry to enter NZ to pay down the money borrowed, which would leave NZ in 'Rock star' territory for the future.
Screw the past let's move on, this is an investment site.

by Kauri | 6th Aug 20, 11:30am 1596670256

I don't think we should be asking for ecoviable / export producing / job producing industry to "enter" NZ. We should be asking our govt to provide an environment where such industries can be home-grown and replace the low-value, inward-focused industries that have been kept on life-support by BAU focused agendas. We have the skills and considerable capital here - what we lack is a govt that is prepared to make the hard-calls.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 12:55pm 1596675304

Exactly and the population of NZ sitting back not demanding some viable action.

by Kauri | 6th Aug 20, 4:52pm 1596689549

Sadly, yes I fear too many NZers want to just continue on the money for nothing property scheme that has made many in the past wealthy whilst sitting on their veritable behinds and are afraid to change course. Thankfully this media site has many articles that challenge the status would and hopefully with time the impetus for change will grow.

by murray86 | 6th Aug 20, 7:39am 1596656361

China's moves against the US; how will they impact the US and what will the impact be on us? I note that if the Chinese work to manufacture tech that is free of any US sourced tech is successful, there may well be ramifications. Remember that in 2017(?) it was reported that the Chinese were able to divert all internet traffic between the US (California) and Australia through China, something that by treaty and technology was not supposed to be able to happen (Technology easy to make happen, but agreements meant that the hardware used was not supposed to contain the controls to enable it to happen). So at some time down the line we will again be faced with a choice as to what technology base will we focus on, because it will be virtually certain the two will be designed to be incompatible.

by Foxglove. | 6th Aug 20, 8:29am 1596659366

“As an advocate of Asia for all Asiatics. ***** could outrightly and plausibly seek to drive all Western powers from the Pacific.” “to use every resource of the ******* nation to sweep away the territorial armies of Britain and America.” Thus wrote Jack Balden in 1943 having just accompanied General Stillwell in his retreat through Burma. Dusted this one off the shelf because for ******* substitute China & Chinese respectively for Japan and Japanese.

by gingerninja | 6th Aug 20, 8:45am 1596660344

Some on here were wondering why China might have been stock piling gold for the last few decades. Well here is one potential explanation. . They hard balled their way into being an IMF reserve currency with SDR's well before it was justified (only 1.96% of global transactions were in the Renminbi in 2019).
And now more moves to persuade the world to consider them a Reserve Currency. Huge gold hoarding is part of a long term plan to replace USD IMO.

by realterms | 6th Aug 20, 8:55am 1596660948

Surely they will have to abandon capital controls to have a hope, and that still seems a long way off.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 9:03am 1596661414

The rule book is gone, lying in tatters now.
China has massive influence arround the globe and the US influence is waining.

by JKB | 6th Aug 20, 8:59am 1596661151

USA has larger gold reserves than China. Russia also stockpiling gold.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 9:06am 1596661572

China has been stock piling gold and it is estimated that they exceed US holdings by a long way. Also US holdings have not been audited for a long time and no one knows if they are still intact or they have not been sold many times over.

by ShoreThing | 6th Aug 20, 10:01am 1596664864

There's actually a big scandal in China right now because huge parts of their gold stockpile have been found to actually be gilded copper. There has been a huge blow to confidence that China actually has as much gold as they are reporting.

https://smallcaps.com.au/china-counterfeit-gold-scandal-wuhan-kingold-j…

by Mrs The Point | 6th Aug 20, 10:52am 1596667945

Made in China, Gold. They will be selling Chinese made gold bars at the Warehouse for a couple of bucks soon.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 11:08am 1596668912

From what I read, China would need to hand over its gold to another country to become a reserve currency. I doubt they would want to do that.

by gingerninja | 6th Aug 20, 9:17am 1596662251

JKB how does that relate to my hypothesis? Of course USA has huge gold reserves. This was part of why they were established as the world's Reserve Currency (initially pegged to those very Gold Reserves) after WW2.

And I don't think anyone is in doubt about Russia having long term aspirations to global power hahaha.

What I am saying is that there is a strong association between Reserve Currency status and Gold Reserves. Some were asking on here the other day, why China is stockpiling and my suggestion is that they wish to attain that position. Who wouldn't if they could?

by Andrewj | 6th Aug 20, 11:58am 1596671938

What if the US $ is an oil $. It's an oil currency. Obama had an expensive oil policy that created lots of incentive for USA to frack and use it's own resources, Trump is a cheap energy administration.
China has built massive refining capacity and has moved to control the demand side of the oil industry, which means the US$ may no longer be the energy $.

China has secured supply from Iran and Russia and they now can start to control the price adn compete, hence the Marsden point problem.

by Gold Kiwi | 6th Aug 20, 6:39pm 1596695940

I don't believe there will ever be another global reserve currency. The Triffin dilemma explains why. It's not possible for your currency to be the global reserve currency if you're a net exporter, so you eventually end up in the same situation as the USA where your manufacturing base is decimated and your biggest export is dollars (US treasuries).

by Chairman Moa | 6th Aug 20, 10:20am 1596666054

Yup, they cleaned up Venezuela's gold reserve last year

by Audaxes | 6th Aug 20, 9:06am 1596661612

They hard balled their way into being an IMF reserve currency with SDR's well before it was justified (only 1.96% of global transactions were in the Renminbi in 2019).

Hmmmmm.... can the IMF ignore China?.

by gingerninja | 6th Aug 20, 9:19am 1596662356

I'm not suggesting that the IMF should have ignored China or that China/Renminbi would not have eventually become a completely justified Reserve Currency with SDR's. But I am suggesting that perhaps it was a tad premature. China was given 10.92% SDR's when they joined in 2016 even though their currency was only used as 1.07% at the time.

by Audaxes | 6th Aug 20, 9:39am 1596663541

The point here is China is preparing for the day the US will have it banned from SWIFT, hence direct bilateral CCY arrangements need to be put in place to bypass the USD.

by gingerninja | 6th Aug 20, 9:52am 1596664340

Okay, interesting. So you don't think there is any power play going on from China's side? And for the record, i'm not necessarily implying a value judgement to that. I think i have tried to make it pretty clear in my comments over the years that I think power struggles and empire aspirations are a human problem (rather than one particular nation). I see an inevitability to the power struggles that occur.

by Audaxes | 6th Aug 20, 10:04am 1596665083

So you don't think there is any power play going on from China's side?

I didn't say that - but China has more immediate concerns in the realms of cross border currency settlement issues. Unilateral, extraterritorial sanctions the US has imposed upon allies and enemies has reduced the utility of USD payment systems.

by gingerninja | 6th Aug 20, 10:12am 1596665573

Not the first or last of the USA's self sabotage I bet.

by Audaxes | 6th Aug 20, 10:06am 1596665161

Most DM currency turnover data is is bloated with the actions of the speculating class, the underlying economic transaction volumes are tiny by comparison - witness the NZD/USD CCY pair.

by linklater01 | 6th Aug 20, 9:18am 1596662333

gingerninja,

Here's a quote from Aftermath by James Rickard; The two countries that have been most explicit about their desire to overthrow the rule of the US Dollar are the same two countries that have acquired more gold any others in the past 10 years,Russia and China. Now, their plans to bury the Dollar have moved beyond wishful thinking to active measures.. Their approach is straightforward. They are each developing proprietary cryptocurrencies on a permissioned, heavily encrypted digital ledger."

In essence, they would pool their gold holdings placing it on deposit in a Swiss non-bank vault and then invite other scheme participants to do the same.

by gingerninja | 6th Aug 20, 9:25am 1596662729

Russia was also one of the first countries to enthusiastically adopt the Belt Road initiative. China and Russia have invested a tonne of money in shared infrastructure to secure a more powerful position in global trade routes.

I'm not placing a value judgement in making such observations. No "empire" or attempts to build empire are lovely cuddly gestures. America and every empire before them has engaged in Debt-Trap diplomacy or worse (often worse) but there is no point putting your head in the sand and ignoring that China is engaging in a huge programme of potential Debt-Trap diplomacy and is massively ambitious about becoming the premier world power. Russia will happily enjoy a piece of that given half a chance.

Values come into where you have a preference as to who you choose as your Evil Overlord. China with a Russian Wing-Man or the USA? all of them have got ugly stains on their track records so there is a lot of grey area.

by Plutocracy | 6th Aug 20, 10:32am 1596666742

I'd still take the US as (generally) life for us in NZ has been pretty good during their hegemony. I'm not sure I'd trust that if China ruled we'd see a similar arrangement. It's just a shame that the US is imploding due to their own ignorance and their version of capitalism entering it's late stages.

by Albert2020 | 6th Aug 20, 9:22am 1596662574

You're correct, Jim Rickards has been saying this for quite some time. They are buying themselves a place at the table.

by gingerninja | 6th Aug 20, 10:14am 1596665678

They deserve a place at the table, they're the world's second biggest economy. The question is, will their be a serious fight to be head of the table?

by Gold Kiwi | 6th Aug 20, 6:42pm 1596696152

China was given a seat at the table (entry to the WTO) because with the launch of the euro there was far less demand for US treasuries. By creating new demand for dollars, the status quo was able to continue for another 19 years (and counting)

by Tradersam | 6th Aug 20, 10:36am 1596666963

China has been stockpiling gold in preparation for the digital Yuan backed by gold to replace the US$ as the new reserve currency.

by ShoreThing | 6th Aug 20, 9:58am 1596664699

"Agreements meant that the hardware used was not supposed to contain the controls to enable it to happen"

Nah, BGP is the protocol used for internet routing and it's rather old and essentially relies on trust. If you can announce to your peers that you have a faster route to some destination, they will prefer to send traffic via you rather than someone else. The system is designed to function this way, and all internet routers work this way. It can be used maliciously, by BGP hijacking as you said, but the technology most certainly is supposed to contain those controls to allow it - that's literally how the internet works.

by mealsonmeals | 6th Aug 20, 7:48am 1596656903

The caveat to the Vancouver housing sales is that they are 22% higher than last year's historical lows (I believe 25/30-year lows). But houses are selling in that market no doubt about that. Toronto didn't slow down last year to the same degree as Vancouver, so doesn't have the same headline-grabbing comparison.

by stuart786786 | 6th Aug 20, 8:16am 1596658575

'In Canada, the Vancouver housing market is taking off again. July sales were +22% higher than in the same month a year ago. June sales were up almost +10% on the same basis.'

It does not mention the price level, Is it higher or lower. If it is because of Hong Kong money than probably will be higher OR it could be many selling as worried about future at best available price.

by profile | 6th Aug 20, 8:06am 1596657985

TVNZ news last night used the term "catastrophic" to describe Victoria.
The median age of deaths is 82 years. 87% of Victoria's 147 deaths have been in aged care facilities.
A failure to protect elderly rather than a catastrophe. How does the 147 deaths compare to aged care winter flu deaths last winter?
Why is TVNZ bigging it up? Is the advertising really worth it?
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/08/coronav…

by oldbloke1 | 6th Aug 20, 8:07am 1596658025

That's right - who is going to miss a few hundred oldies, eh?

by Foyle | 6th Aug 20, 8:19am 1596658752

Average length of stay in Aged care facility is about 2.5 years. So for those 87% of deaths in aged care facilities average life expectancy is only just over a year. Dying at 82 rather than 83 when your body and mind are deteriorating rapidly (as is typically the case for those in aged care) is a little sad but nothing more.

by profile | 6th Aug 20, 9:17am 1596662264

Did you miss them last year old bloke? Or the 80,000 in the US who died of the flu in 2018? Though not.

by Ezy | 6th Aug 20, 8:39am 1596659948

The bleeding hearts love to play the death card. But they could care less about preventable deaths due to things like Malaria that kill 272,000 children under 5 every year. Wankers.

by murray86 | 6th Aug 20, 8:53am 1596660780

A bit strong Ezy. Medical science has been working for years to solve the malaria problem, and dengue and a multitude of other ailments that attack people of all ages. Billions are invested world wide to address these. People living in the environments where these run rampnat know the risks, and what ever can be done to protect themselves. Covid as yet is a large unknown with little that we can do to protect ourselves and those around us other than exclusions and lockdowns to stop infections. So to argue that people don't care is just plain wrong.

by Ezy | 6th Aug 20, 9:28am 1596662926

The same way people don't really care about saving the environment. If we really cared, everyone would ditch their mobile phones - full of rare earth metals, and exploitation of environments in places from Congo to China that we can't see so who gives a rats. The hypocrisy around at the moment is tangible, and I'm over it. The bottom line is, we're all for a cause until it effects our personal level of comfort - then we act like spoilt toddlers and throw our toys out of the cot. We all deserve to die we're such awful POS.

by murray86 | 6th Aug 20, 9:51am 1596664295

Ezy the human species has always adapted the environment to suit itself, rather than adapting to the environment, and yes unless we change this mindset, or develop technologies that enable us to ameliorate the consequences of our behaviour and actions, then this will kill us all. The planet will then heal itself and a period of rebirth will happen. It has before and it will again. But it is the leaderships of our countries and nation who need to lead this. Most of the ordinary people's opinions are largely ignored unless it is an election year, or their immediate needs are appeased. Long term needs just don't get onto the radar.

by Ezy | 6th Aug 20, 11:07am 1596668855

Mostly agree, although government leading the people is the tail wagging the dog.

“The government you elect is the government you deserve.” - Thomas Jefferson

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 11:11am 1596669072

The issue I have with the choices out there is that none of them seam capable of innovation and delivery without selling us to China.

by oldbloke1 | 6th Aug 20, 8:57am 1596661039

"Could care less"? Couldn't care less....

by Ezy | 6th Aug 20, 10:35am 1596666947

Good spotting their oldbloke1

by Plutocracy | 6th Aug 20, 10:39am 1596667147

Can you remind me, how many New Zealanders died of malaria in the last year?

With the size of the global population and people being tribal, it's unrealistic to expect people in NZ to care about every single one of humanity's issues. Coronavirus has the ability to impact us directly and it may affect people we directly care about. I see no issue in people in NZ placing more emphasis on coronavirus and less on malaria. I think your expectations are unrealistic.

by Ex Expat | 6th Aug 20, 8:58am 1596661109

A trope that the Leties bring out in their bot posts. Oldies can self isolate. The stage 4 cancer patients that Cindy conveniently ignores can not. Same for the Cystic Fibrosis sufferers. Only some lives matter, apparently.

by GV 27 | 6th Aug 20, 9:40am 1596663607

'Kindness' is denying access to potentially life-saving cancer treatment interventions? Can't see it playing well on a billboard tbh.

by northman46 | 6th Aug 20, 9:43am 1596663821

What's being left got to do with it? Your remark is the real trope.

by Henry_Tull | 6th Aug 20, 8:09am 1596658142

TVNZ, have missed this news from Peak Prosperity
https://youtu.be/Cp0hiFVm1U8

Look at the Danish research numbers, interesting for them

by murray86 | 6th Aug 20, 8:23am 1596659010

Will you be ready to die when you hit 60? 70? 80? 90? And what about the 30 year old who died?

by theglc | 6th Aug 20, 9:23am 1596662591

>60 appear to be expendable according to some above comments.

Imagine if Victoria (italy USA etc) did nothing and let it run rampant....

by Henry_Tull | 6th Aug 20, 8:06am 1596657975

Let's have a systems condition report.
You know we're had all this time to Gold Standard the gear.

The South may not be ready to contain a second wave of Covid-19, if an outbreak of the disease was to take hold.
Contact-tracing systems still require work and epidemiologists say the population needs to be prepared for mass mask-wearing.
The Southern District Health Board is not satisfied it can trace contacts quickly enough.

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/not-ready-second-wave-says-professor

Feeling tired?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122354945/coronavirus…
On seven occasions, security guards stationed at managed isolation and quarantine facilities had reportedly fallen asleep on the job, Housing Minister Megan Woods says. - bets are more than 7.

Silly Megan, no use complaining to us, bet she go to the individual in charge, who is ? (a part time Minister of Health is a terrible idea, no kidding).

More terrible news. Its all about funding.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/122351123/exodus-at-troubled-cant…

Further validation of the Walker kiddie, looks like he was more your canary in the coal mine, rather dog whitler. Shame Megan claimed the whistle, pm piled on, rather than facing the reality.

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield is warning community transmission of Covid-19 is a case of "not if, but when"

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122349418/coronavirus…

by oldbloke1 | 6th Aug 20, 8:09am 1596658144

Next you'll be telling us there is community transmission, and the government is hiding it.......wait....

by diogenesthecynic | 6th Aug 20, 9:02am 1596661358

Why don't the virus/pandemic minimises have anything better to do? Every day I come to read financial news and here they all are rampantly peddling their fringe theories from their fringe websites and YouTube channels. Some people share great insights and quality links in these comments but the virus-conspiracy nuts really lower the tone. And they comment on every possible article with the same agenda repeatedly.

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 11:02am 1596668559

Agree.
We are at a cross road to the future and forward moving innovation thinking required and the majority of what get for the more than capable brains on here is conspiracy, my team v your team, looks at what this team has or hasn't done in the past, when we could be actually discuss making NZ stronger and more resliant for the futhure.

by Henry_Tull | 6th Aug 20, 9:03am 1596661426

It will do until the mess gets here

Business leader Rob Fyfe said the idea has traction given managed isolation could be here for years.

"You could think two, three, four, five years because there will be some countries in the world that could be struggling with this virus for a long time to come."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/422856/covid-19-business-leaders-pu…

Busting out, busting in? Who knew.

A woman has been charged after police say she went on to the grounds of a managed isolation facility in Rotorua.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/422863/woman-sneaks-onto-grounds-of…

by Hamish | 6th Aug 20, 8:11am 1596658274

And we're already starting to dry out again.....

by GV 27 | 6th Aug 20, 8:21am 1596658896

Yup, the Watercare website has our past seven days rainfall as being 97% below normal. Coming seven days is 52% below normal. This is the next big thing in our economic stagnation and it's been unfolding since October last year.

by Ezy | 6th Aug 20, 8:36am 1596659797

Thought this comment was in the context of having another lock down for a moment. Reminds me, I need to stock up the wine cellar...

by GV 27 | 6th Aug 20, 9:12am 1596661975

Not drinking through lockdown was probably the smartest thing I've ever done tbh. I didn't exercise either, but you take the good with the bad.

by PonziKiwi | 6th Aug 20, 8:21am 1596658889

Greenbacks went out of circulation in 1865. Greenbacks were issued between 1861 and 1865 as Abe Lincoln issued currency. Today's fed notes are not greenbacks.

by realterms | 6th Aug 20, 8:58am 1596661106

Technically, yes, but not what 99% people understand. So who cares?

by Audaxes | 6th Aug 20, 8:44am 1596660271

Mnuchin’s Long-Bond Curve Ball Dares the Flatteners

Wall Street was already bracing for record-sized debt sales from the U.S. Treasury, given the federal government’s rapid increase in spending to combat the coronavirus crisis. But what almost no one saw coming was Mnuchin’s willingness to aggressively ramp up sales of the longest-dated securities. The department announced Wednesday that starting in August, it would increase 10-year note auctions by $6 billion, the just-implemented 20-year bond auctions by $5 billion and 30-year bond auctions by $4 billion.

In total, the Treasury will issue $108 billion of 10-year notes, $69 billion of 20-year bonds and $72 billion of 30-year bonds over the next three months. Of the 22 primary dealers that Bloomberg News’s Elizabeth Stanton surveyed, 21 of them forecast smaller boosts to those maturities. Only Morgan Stanley got it right.

by King of the whiners | 6th Aug 20, 9:13am 1596662031

A bit of actual science to dilute the strongly held 'opinions'............

Survivors of Covid-19 show increased rate of psychiatric disorders, study finds - more than half experience PTSD, anxiety, insomnia, depression or compulsive symptoms:

Out of 402 patients monitored after being treated for the virus, 55% were found to have at least one psychiatric disorder, experts from San Raffaele hospital in Milan found. The results, based on clinical interviews and self-assessment questionnaires, showed post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 28% of cases, depression in 31% and anxiety in 42%. Additionally, 40% of patients had insomnia and 20% had obsessive-compulsive (OC) symptoms.

The findings will increase concerns about the psychological effects of the virus. The paper, published on Monday in the journal Brain, Behavior and Immunity, says: “PTSD, major depression, and anxiety are all high-burden non-communicable conditions associated with years of life lived with disability.

“Considering the alarming impact of Covid-19 infection on mental health, the current insights on inflammation in psychiatry, and the present observation of worse inflammation leading to worse depression, we recommend to assess psychopathology of Covid-19 survivors and to deepen research on inflammatory biomarkers, in order to diagnose and treat emergent psychiatric conditions.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/survivors-of-covid-19-sho…

by Kezza R | 6th Aug 20, 9:38am 1596663517

It is stunning that there are people flogging CV as a nonevent and not taking the above into consideration.

by Boatman | 6th Aug 20, 9:40am 1596663633

China has been frantically buying gold since August 2019 ( its also the worlds biggest gold miner) and it refuses to disclose its gold holdings , the last known tonnage was 2000 tons in ( this was the figure in 2015 )

It has been keeping its own gold ( 450 tons a year ) and in late 2019 was the biggest buyer on the global market

Some pundits are suggesting they are now the second biggest holders of gold after the USA .

One needs to ask the pointed question ..............why ?

by mikekirk29 | 6th Aug 20, 10:36am 1596666995

James Rickards has answer for you in Aftermath.
Those countries with most gold will be sat round a table re a world currency backed by gold.
Those with bigger piles will dominate.
Special Drawing Rights of IMF will be counters also
With USD going down swannie, this could happen sooner than we think, about 3 years I would estimate

by Beanie | 6th Aug 20, 11:08am 1596668908

So what will that likely mean for private holdings of gold and gold mining shares?

by mikekirk29 | 6th Aug 20, 11:35am 1596670506

Own gold, not shares, not paper gold.
Will go to $5000 an ounce

by sharetrader | 6th Aug 20, 9:53am 1596664401

Australia having another crack at NZ when we have nothing to do with the situation Victoria are in,
they can not help themselves when they see an opportunity to stick the knife in
check out the cartoon on the front page today
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/

by King of the whiners | 6th Aug 20, 10:14am 1596665643

That is the weirdest 'cartoon'..... I am struggling to understand how the failure of Australia's initially too lax quarantine and subsequent renewed economic dislocation (in one of it most important states - and counting) as another COVID wave rolls in is an advert for the business as usual approach.

by Alter Ego | 7th Aug 20, 11:04am 1596755055

What goes around comes around...

by mikekirk29 | 6th Aug 20, 10:33am 1596666826

Vancouver sales taking off. Sales in central suburbs and Upper Harbour area of Auckland likewise.
Uhm...this started in Auckland about November.
Who started being a bit nasty to Hong Kong about that time??
Sales over 1.5m accelerated markedly since 8.6.20 (end of lockdown) whilst sals below 850k are lower than last year. Who can get property without doing open homes and shell out over CV for it?
Will be VERY interesting to see what happens to Auckland sales in next few months, as China stamps on outflow pipe of assets and money trying to get out of HK

by mikekirk29 | 6th Aug 20, 11:49am 1596671398

Further to my earlier remarks re China and Hong Kong potential influence on sales in high bracket in Auckland (and Vancouver) I looked at the sales for 6m block Oct-Mar in 2018-19 v 2019-20, for sales over 1.5 million and sales 650-900k, for Auckland and selected parts of Auckland. This shows that sales over $1.5m have increased MARKEDLY more than sales in FHB bracket, in the 6 selected areas chosen (Albany Ward, NSC, Auckland City, Manukau City, Rodney District and Waitakere City)

Auckland sales as a whole rose 21.5%
Auckland sales over 1.5m rose 37.7%
Auckland sales in 650-900k bracket rose only 11.5%

In NSC sales rose 61% in over 1.5m bracket and only 10.5% in 650-900 bracket
In Albany Ward the 1.5m sales rose 42% and those in lower bracket only 8.3%

This looks supportive of my theory.
Chinese pop of Auckland is centred in NSC and Albany, as well as Auckland City.
Sales in Auckland City for $1.5m and above bracket rose 33%. For 650-900k bracket, they FELL 3.4%
As I said earlier, it will be v interesting to see what happens to sales in those 3 areas, over $1.5m as China increasingly controls money flow out of Hong Kong.

by mikekirk29 | 6th Aug 20, 12:16pm 1596672996

May and June, 2019 v 2020.
Auckland sales over $1.5m: UP 10.5%
Auckland sales 650-900k: down 25.6%
Total Auckland sales down 17%

In Albany Ward top bracket was up 22% and lower was down 18%
In NSC top bracket was down 5% and lower bracket down 35%
In Auckland City upper bracket was up 16% and lower was down 35%

It is clear that when we are told figures by the authorities, the price brackets NOT shown, are in fact, crucial indicators of what market is doing. generics, like most averages, are useless and misleading.