Here's our summary of key economic events over night that affect New Zealand, with news of new lockdown restrictions in New Zealand, with Level 3 imposed on the Auckland region.
Internationally, the big news is in the gold market with its own big move.
Before we get to that, last week's data for US retail sales showed a further gain, up +2.5% from the same week in July and down only -3.1% from the same week in 2019. This was an encouraging improvement.
Also encouraging were July housing start data from Canada which came in much better than expected and better than in June. But the overall numbers masked weakness in western provinces.
But there are warning signals as well. Small business closures in the US seem to be gathering pace and there is no official data on that. Commercial landlords face a crisis of their own as a consequence, especially in Manhattan. And a senior US Fed official is warning the American economy might yet get swallowed into a 'sinkhole'. And further, there is no Congressional progress on renewed fiscal stimulus or extended support.
Compounding the problems, US producer price rises are picking up, mirroring consumer prices, as tariff-based inflation beds in there. Economic contraction with higher prices is not a recipe anyone wants for the world's largest economy.
In China, July vehicle sales were up more than +16% compared to July 2019. For passenger cars alone, they rose +8% in July from a year earlier to 1.63 million units. And that came after a stumble in June when they slipped slightly.
And new lending in China is still growing at a fast pace, but just not quite as fast as in earlier months.
Wall Street has started today with a small gain. The S&P500 is up +0.5% so far today. Overnight however, European markets raced higher, mostly up more than +2%. Yesterday, Shanghai ended its session down a sharp -1.2% but Hong Kong was up +2.1% and Tokyo was up +1.9%. The ASX200 rose another +0.5%. The NZX50 slipped -0.3% and with the renewed lockdown status will probably fall again today.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 20,152,000 and that is up +215,000 since this time yesterday. Global deaths reported now exceed 738,000 (+6,000).
A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +52,100 from this time yesterday to 5,270,700. US deaths are now just over 166,900 and a death rate of 504/mln (+3/mln). And the net number of people actively infected in the US rose overnight to 2,384,100, so still more new infections than recoveries.
In Australia, there have now been 21,713 COVID-19 cases reported, another 316 overnight, and still very much concentrated in Victoria. But there were another +22 in Sydney and NSW can't seem to shake its small community transfer outbreak. Australia's death count is up to 331 (+18). Their recovery rate is now just on 57%. There are now 8995 active cases in Australia (+45) indicating a rising recovery rate but still more infections than recoveries.
The UST 10yr yield is sharply higher and now at 0.66% and an unusual +8 bps rise. Most of this rise is at the long end of the rate curve. Their 2-10 curve is sharply firmer at +49 bps. And their 1-5 curve is up as well at +14 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is even steeper at +57 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up sharply too at 0.91%, a +5 bps overnight rise. The China Govt 10yr is holding at 2.99%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is likewise little-changed at just on 0.78%.
The gold price has been dumped overnight, down -US$117 to now be at US$1,915/oz. This is a -5.8% retreat in one day and a huge movement for the yellow metal. Today's move has unwound most of the gains over the past two weeks. The silver price is in a sharp retreat too, down by more than -13%.
Oil prices are softer today by less than -US$1/bbl. They are now just under US$42/bbl in the US and the international price is now just under US$45/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar fell overnight on the local COVID-19 lockdown news, and after some earlier gains in offshore markets is back at 65.9 USc which is where it was this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are soft at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are down slightly at 56 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now still at just under 69.2, aided in the background with rises against the British pound and Japanese yen.
The bitcoin price is down -3.3% overnight at US$11,525. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
All eyes will be on the new lockdown consequences locally now. And later today, the RBNZ issues its latest Monetary Policy Report, but it might be somewhat overshadowed and outdated by the reimposed L2 and L3 lockdowns due at lunchtime.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».