US durable goods orders weak; Canada's deficit soars; Singapore's factory production jumps; Australia's banks get big win; UST 10y at 0.66%; oil and gold stable; NZ$1 = 65.5 USc; TWI-5 = 69.3

US durable goods orders weak; Canada's deficit soars; Singapore's factory production jumps; Australia's banks get big win; UST 10y at 0.66%; oil and gold stable; NZ$1 = 65.5 USc; TWI-5 = 69.3
Poor Knights Islands marine reserve

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of a big win for banks in Australia.

But first in the US, their August durable goods orders were weak. They came in -6.3% lower than the same month in 2019 and well below analysts expectations. In fact, business investment in capital goods were down almost -11%. These are big retreats from the boardroom. Perhaps the only positive is that they are inching up monthly and have done so for four straight months now.

But weak factory orders haven't stopped investors piling back in to equities today - and even in the face of clear signs of a new global surge of pandemic infections and deaths.

Across the border, Canada has reported a four month government deficit of -C$149 bln compared to less than -C$2 bln in the same period in 2019.

Across the Pacific, China’s US$1 tln sovereign wealth fund posted a +17% gain on its overseas investments in 2019. That reverses a small loss in 2018 and is a similar gain it posted in 2017. Much of the gain was from investments in the US which is still where most of its investments are. Norway also has a huge sovereign wealth fund and in 2019 it earned +20% in 2019 - but recorded a -3.4% loss in the first half of 2020. In 2019 the NZ Super Fund reported a +21% return, but has also struggled in 2020.

In Singapore, they reported a very strong rise in industrial production for August, up almost +14% from the same month in 2019 when the expected gain was less than +5%. It is a positive surprise built on gains from their electronics industry.

In South Korea, consumer confidence is falling again and that is from a low base to start with. It is a worrying sign for them.

In Australia, there is a widespread expectation that their Federal Government will roll back their responsible lending rules next week. These are rules imposed after the Hayne Inquiry into financial system behaviour. Banks have claimed they effectively stifle lending. Consumer groups claim the lending they stifle is irresponsible lending. If the rollback happens, it will render the Hayne Report moot. Bank shares surged in trading yesterday, with the CBA up +3.0%, NAB up +6.9%, Westpac up +7.4% and ANZ up +6.3%. The Aussie banks have had a major lobbying 'win' here.

In New York, the S&P500 is up a strong +1.6% in early afternoon trade to limit the losses for the week. The S&P500 capitalisation is set to lose loose -$175 bln for the week (-0.6%) even with today's bounce. They follow European markets that were generally mixed. Yesterday Shanghai ended its session down -0.1% on the day for a weekly loss of -3.6%. Hong Kong was down -0.3% on the day capping a full -5.0% weekly loss. Tokyo was up +0.5% on the day for a modest -0.7% weekly dip. The ASX200 ended up a strong +1.5% yesterday on enthusiastic buying of bank stocks and that caps a +1.7% gain for the week. The NZX50 Capital Index posted a Friday gain of +0.9% and a weekly rise of +1.3%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 32,365,000 and up +372,000 in one day. That is a new record high for one day and there are clear signs the pandemic spread is accelerating again. Brazil and Russia are the key countries providing the most impetus, but European nations are as well. New infection levels are exploding in the UK, France and Spain especially. Sweden is tracking up again too. Germany and Italy have avoided the latest surge so far. Global deaths reported now exceed 985,000 (+7000) but clearly many are going unreported.

Just under a quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +48,000 overnight to 7,207,000 and there is a resurgence there too. The number of active cases are stable at 2,539,000 so they have as many new cases as recoveries and making no progress. Their death total is now just over 208,000 and back rising at +1000 per day. It seems destined to track higher soon.

In Australia, there have now been exactly 27,000 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is only +17 more cases from yesterday. Australia, and even Victoria, seem to be managing their community outbreak well now. Deaths are up however at 869 (+8). Their recovery rate is now just over 90%.

The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp and is ending the week at just on 0.66% and that is a -4 bps decline for the week. Their 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at +53 bps, their 1-5 curve is also unchanged at +15 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is marginally flatter at just under +58 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is little-changed at 0.85%. The China Govt 10 year yield is up +2 bps at 3.13%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is marginally firmer at just under 0.47% and off its record low.

The price of gold is ending the week little-changed from yesterday at US$1866/oz. But over the whole week, the yellow metal has dropped -4.3% or a massive -US$85/oz. And silver has fallen an eye-watering -15% in one week.

Oil prices have slipped slightly and are now just over US$40/bbl in the US, while the international price is little-changed at just under US$42/bbl. Despite these low prices, there were a handful of rigs brought back into production in the past week.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 65.5 USc and minor softness overnight. But against the Australian dollar we are much firmer at 93.2 AUc and almost a +½c rise. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 56.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has inched up to 69.3.

The bitcoin price is up +0.4% from this time yesterday, and now at US$10,726. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Caving in to banks. More debt for people who are most likely to default. All will hit the fan in 2021 and in the summer. Here comes inflation they think cannot happen

"Here comes inflation . . "
What inflation is that?
I think RBNZ would be happy to hear about that inflation - they are seemingly more concerned about the possibility of deflation.


From the guy who thinks that because interest rates where 20 to 25% years ago when he was paying off his mortgage means that it would be fine for current buyers to see such levels. Completely unaware of the fact, it seems, that when he had his loan that the banks generally lent out 2 or 3 times of a sole income. Now they lend 10 times joint income. Holy moly, this is the type of ideology the young and poor have to contend with.

I really do care greatly; it’s just that you aren’t seeing it for what it is. It’s called tough love.


Or greed and ignorance from one part of society towards another - appears to just depend what camp you’re in. Good societies occur when those in positions of privilege act with wisdom and humility - but you’ll notice that the quality of western society around the world appears to be degrading rapidly so if you have any self awareness you might become aware that you don’t need to look far for the cause and solution.

10 x joint income? Hyperbole much..

Completely unaware of the fact, it seems, that when he had his loan that the banks generally lent out 2 or 3 times of a sole income.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASB's owner) market cap is 3.4x larger than the whole banking index of the entire German stock exchange. Of course, the German economy is 2.6x larger than that of Australia's.

The general public of Australia and NZ are woefully ignorant about the size of the bubble and its relevance to the economy.

Scary numbers huh

Can you see how we’re backing ourselves further into a corner P8?

In order to avoid deflation we’re pumping asset prices further at the risk of decoupling the productive economy from the amount of debt in the system and the price of assets (they’re related as a result of the PV/discount rate of future cash flows). But debt/asset prices and the productive economy can’t decouple (for long) otherwise we’ll see mass unemployment and no confidence in future lending (asset prices fall).

At present fiscal and monetary policy are allowing an artificial relationship to occur between the productive economy and debt/asset prices. Question becomes how long that can be sustained.

Import cost rising inflation
Food price inflation
House price and rent inflation
Rising cost of moving produce and goods from around the world inflation
Just because CB been trying to create 2% inflation for 12 years and failing, they think it cannot happen
Well, print trillions in a few months and see what you get.

“NAB chief economist Alan Oster said at best, removing such onerous responsible lending restrictions, would add back 1 percentage point of house price growth to a 10 per cent fall in house prices he is expecting overall.”

Here a fun fact

The fact checkers had to march into overdrive to (push water up hill).

The usual analysis is to look at cost of generation.
- pumping hydro is terrible compared.

So to find the answer they wanted, they have had to look into the minds of energy traders, and assume they will have fewer trading, price gouging opportunities in the pumped hydro world.
- in this light failed govt, regulation is a hidden issue.

True brilliance for it floats.

I still don't get why, when we have a potentially underutilised power station at Manapouri, why the Govt is proposing to build another one "up the road". Surely the 4bln construction costs plus the 100ml feasibility costs and the unknown engineering costs could be better spent upgrading the grid first. Also given this money will be borrowed, that's another cost. Why oh why is the proposal to build another generator away from the main consumption area even being thought of?? Does my head in!!

With the way that the wholesale market is set up I do not know how anybody could predict what the future price of electricity would be. At present prices are linked to the backstop provided by the thermals. Coal and gas. If those were not there, what would the prices do? Presumably go to whatever the power companies settle at which provides them with the required long term rate of return. Which is a completely different thing. It also depends whether there is good competition between them or not.

And, disregarding the inconvenient fact that pumped hydro returns only 70-80% of the power stuffed in, the Manorburn Depression proposal needs Dams up to 60m high to achieve maximum storage potential. And it's total volume which determines how useful a PH installation performs in terms of coping with drought or replacing peakers. No point in avoiding Dams and then running out of perched water just when it's most needed....

More views of the poor form by fact checkers!

Sustainable Energy Forum spokesman Steve Goldthorpe said it's great more renewable energy is being investigated but the scope of the Lake Onslow scheme doesn't make sense.

"Storing water just for use on occasion, two or three times a year at most, seems to be an awful lot of expense for little return, so using it for that sort of battery capacity seems a little unusual."

As a view of pumped hydro we should feel assured by the Aussies who are going to build Snowy 2, a pumped hydro scheme as an alternative to batteries and gas leakers, sorry, Peakers..
The Yankees have a lot of battery storage and they have determined that it is useful and will be in the hands of the transmission companies, not generation or retail.
The technicalities are beyond me but if the Lake Onslow pumped storage is in the hands of the transmission company ( Transpower) then we are consistent with an overseas trend.

Economic & engineering feasibility plus cost benefit would be more helpful than feelings.
I feel.

Well yes but I would want to be paid $40M for that, for nothing you can have the feeling that power market is uncompetitive and a well managed battery in the right hands may be a solution, based on the American (FERC?) decision.

The S&P500 capitalisation is set to loose -$175 bln for the week

Is loose = lose official now?

Dunno. But in the eighties just about all our clients in continental Europe insisted on “loose” in their faxed messages. Perhaps NZ likes to adopt European flair? That was about the time people started to including “you know’” in the middle of their sentences, even though you as the listener didn’t know, which was why you were listening. Noticed both of our wannabe PM’s resorted to this “conjunction” in the debate this week. Rather inarticulate, disappointing in fact.

Haha, fair call Fox, Almost as bad as the ubiquitous use of the word "like". Seems none of younger generations can construct a sentence without using it - it's become the new "umm"


Totally, for sure


"Sort of"

Dickensian times have returned to NZ. Speculators having had increased capital gain, mortgage freezes, lower interest rates on mortgages, tax payer assisted rents paid have now gone ulta aggressive on rent rises. NZ is becoming a hellscape for the poor and young. Vote Jacinda and get more of the same. She has turned her back to the masses and now just panders to the elites.

Agreed " . . . a hellscape for the poor and young . . "
Critical for a young person to make some tough personal decisions.

Like... shall I book a one way ticket to Ozzy on Air NZ or Qantas?

You would not be the first . . . many young Kiwis have done that for over 50 years.
Headed off overseas, earns the big money and then came back to buy a house - nothing new. Very common in the 1970/80.
Many of the young now returning because of Covid were doing that.

And to get NZ super.

Silver at 35$ is starting to look reasonable now.
If it goes below $30 I am buying big time. Any thoughts, PM investors?

Something about 'history' in your comment! (Firstly. Ask yourself "Why will somebody be selling to me below $30?" The answer is unlikely to be, because they see the price going up!)

1980 (ish); head of trading room called out "If gold ever gets back below $800, buy it with your ears pinned back!" - your, Big Time?
It did, and then $700; then $600, then $400, then $ some stage I guess he quit any ear-pinning buying he'd done. (NB: $250 was about the bottom, as Brown sold the UK gold holdings).
Silver is a by-product of other mining/manufacturing endeavours. People, by and large, don't go out to specifically find it - unlike gold or even diamonds ( and there is a whole other kettle of fish!).

A good price to buy silver? Probably below $10. But who knows!

Just in case you was wondering, I will buy all the silver you have for a modicum of a dollar as inflation will take care of any my investment.

Then I will sell it back to you, for your retirement and you can live for ever on a silver plated dollar, maybe with a little gold etching. I will take real dollars, pertaining to that time in your life.

You can bet the House on it...or not as the case maybe different as all get out.

Flogging any Precious Metals, also known as PM after a period is someting to be hold. But it might deteriorate after a while, as peoples whims take flight. Buy Tesla, a much safer bet. They have batteries worth far more than life itself.

If it goes below $30 I am buying big time. Any thoughts, PM investors?

I fortunately got exposure to silver in Jan a way of diversifying a precious metals portfolio. Not enough info about what your strategy is to give you any advice. Don't be surprised to see the price plummet if there's another stock market crash. And the probability of that happening should not be discounted.

Agreed 100%. A lot of people received their physical delivery through ABC Bullion last week after waiting about 6 weeks. Every single one has silver that is worth less (in dollars) than what they paid for it.

Theres still some folk that need the silver price to double just to break even from when they purchased in the last GFC.

Any down turn in the markets will see silver taking a decent hit.

Australia will make it easier for banks to approve mortgages and small-business loans to help the economy recover from its first recession in almost 30 years. Shares of the nation’s biggest lenders surged.

As part of a sweeping overhaul of so-called responsible lending obligations, the government will allow banks to rely on income and spending information provided by borrowers when assessing loan applications, rather than doing their own lengthy verifications, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said Friday Link

Too little too late:

John Maynard Keynes had it exactly right in the 1920’s. Both inflation and deflation are evil, he wrote, but they are not equal in how so. The latter is by far the worst, mainly because of where it ends up forcing these dramatic swings. On labor.

“The Inflation which causes the former means Injustice to individuals and to classes—particularly to rentiers; and is therefore unfavourable to saving. The Deflation which causes falling prices means Impoverishment to labour and to enterprise by leading entrepreneurs to restrict production, in their endeavour to avoid loss to themselves; and is therefore disastrous to employment.” Link

Doubling down, going for broke.

Whanau Ora working with other Maori agencies to support children with a new initiative. Whanua Ora, Oranga Tamariki, Te Puni Kokiri and ACC have pooled together $42 million to offer additional support to 800 North Island families. Children's Minister Tracey Martin says it's a completely new way of trying to get in earlier to support families before children are taken into state care.

That's $52,500 government funding per North Island family

Actually it's more like $52,500 per family before expenses. Expenses being the ongoing employment and support of a whole tribe of government agencies, in order to consult, gather data, debate, report on, discuss, report back on, discuss further and so forth. The families of the unemployed just get whatever is left over, if they are lucky and say the right things.

That was my first thought. Part of my reasoning for a UBI.

Tongue in cheekkkkk..

[Offensive comment removed. No excuse. Ed ]

Please form a queue and I will be in touch......Touch wood. As I live and breath, I think this may fix all your problems... and as I am only 99, may cure all my fantasies, in one go.


A vastly distorted..Ego.

Saying its 'tongue in cheek' doesn't get you off the hook for being racist, Alter Ego.


Racism is rife in NZ. So is a lack of humour, around the subject, except of course for Billy T James, who I say hello to as I pass his resting place daily.

I have friends of all persuasions who live here in New Zealand to escape the rigours of other racist Nations. We are a conglomerate of Nationalities, who have mixed and worked together to forge an alliance to better this fair Nation.

Though what is fair to some is dependant on the blood and the mix. I was Ginger Haired, I had to put up with wry humour, a milliontimes.... I do have sense of humour and also friends of all persuasion, who have worked their butts off to better the entire country.

That this is now a Society of ripping off those who worked and saved and invested in bettering this fair Nation, is NOT racist.

Some of us are Middle class...and we pay for that daily. Some do not.

That we favour the rich and those who take, it daily, is fast becoming a reason to State the truth, in any which way one can.

That some think it is a joke, not worth repeating, would have Billy T rolling in his grave. He got away with far worse and so do TV and so-called other Humourists, addressed to all and sundry.

I will say no more....except. it is small wonder, that others have not been dis-favoured for their blindness to reality.

The 3rd estate.

We are a Welfare State......And I do know who pays...the Piper. And who will suppress it ,come what may.

Do have a sense of right and wrong, this is also tongue in cheek......I could say far worse.....and I ain't laughing at others the truth of the matter and the lack of humour pertaining to Family Benefits, skimmed from Savers, Taxpayers, one and all.

And that ORR other things will always predudice my response. Stop ripping off those who Work and pay their is not fair.....

Sigh-ned a Ginger Haired know it all.....Old but not completely.....stupid.

Just censored. and despised...yet again...Weep ...Weep.

A E. What do you make of this:

This is racism - backed up by hard facts. Māori are three-times more likely to be arrested and convicted of a cannabis-related crime than non-Māori. But Māori only make up 17 per cent of population.

There is a super strong case that Paddy is comparing the wrong things, using wrong-headed numbers.
Like, maybe more of those that come into contact with the police..

He is going to run a debate later, what could possibly go wrong....

Until the circumstances of the arrests are analysed (as opposed to arrest numbers in isolation) we will never know. Maori membership of gangs is significantly higher than non maori so that could contribute. Also, in my personal experience, when confronted by an officer for having a puff out the back of the pub, maori are more likely to say "get f234cked pig!" and then be searched and arrested, rather than the white boy who just says "oh, yeah hehe, sweet as" and tosses the joint. There is definitely an attitudinal element. Same as out on the road when pulled over for speeding - pass the "roadside attitude test" and you'll likely get a warning - rark up and abuse the officer and you'll definitely get a ticket.

If disparity in incarceration rates for different ethnic groups is a definitive proof of racism then the different rate for male and female must prove massive gender bias. If being Maori has any meaning then it must indicate a culture or sub-culture that is different from non-Maori. So not surprised incarceration rates are different. And you would expect different rates for PIs, Muslims, and the variety of Asian communities. However when the figure is triple it is worth investigation but not an asumption of racism.
BTW when I lived in PNG a third of prisoners were Chimbu but they were only 3% of the population. Culture does make a difference.


I cannot possibly comment as I am a declared racist with 4 up ticks and though I use my own eyes and ears, cannot tell the difference between races and problems and financial well being.

Though I must say that there is a dirth of knowledge of others who do not have a real inkling of the disparity between items and truth, portrayed herein and via other media, flogging a dead horse and other stable items that house us all and fly like a kite to eternity. And I do pay my way and use my brain and what not and want not. Tis not me who is blind, but some people are here for their own benefit and cannot see the truth staring them in the face. But thanks for the thought ...Some people will get in a Paddy about most things, I will take it all with a pinch of salt.

al123 what did you find that was racist? If the government policy is only for one ethnic group then that surely could be called racist.


There is a growing and insidious trend in NZ whereby any comment that has the slightest possible interpretation by some overly sensitive segments of the community is labelled as "racist". It could be argued, quite successfully, that many of the current Govt agencies are inherently racist. Whanau Ora, Te Puni Kokiri, the Maori electoral roll and seats, reserved places on Local Govt and Regional Council seats are all inherently racist due to them being created for a single race of NZrs. I am not in any way disputing the need for these initiatives - merely pointing out the "technicalities". As for Billy T - I doubt he would be allowed to operate nowadays, unfortunate as that is.

I'm not going to repeat the comment. The editor deleted it for good reason. It was not simply an objection to policies aimed at particular ethnic groups.

I believe what NZ needs is a dispassionate discussion about what the drivers are that are causing Maori overrepresentation in the negative statistics we currently measure. Incarceration, unemployment, gang membership, educational underachievement, poor health, lack of earnings capacity, family violence, child abuse, drug abuse and list goes on. Hiding behind the ills of colonisation is a poor and lazy excuse imo. There is a distinct lack of Maori community leaders or political leaders who are willing to "grasp the nettle". Park the "blame game" and identify the actual reasons first. Maori are potentially NZ's largest untapped economic resource with their large landholdings and collective style of ownership.

Is it simply wealth/poverty? If poor people are more likely to be over represented on the negatve statistics you list. That moves the question to why are Maori poor. And the answers might relate to issues of a tradition of communal living as opposed to nuclear families. Probably it is much more complicated - the dislike of the 'other' which underlies racism may be one factor but it would need some research. For example in the USA African-Americans suffer most of these negative statistics but not Nigerian immigrants and their families.

The answer is unlikely to be simple. Vocabulary and education levels. Levels of ongoing self education. Trust calculations and assumptions, false or otherwise. Subconscious understandings. Impulse control and tendencies for delayed gratification. World views and the mythical understanding one has about ones place in the world and ones history. Feelings of self worth. Skill at manipulating a situation to one's benefit by calculating and executing a best course of action when confronted with a situation. Controlling, grappling and having some understanding of one's shadow side. Chemical imbalances, self medication. Much of this is cultural and mythical but shaped by historical streams, an unchangeable past and to some extent physical factors as well like appearance.

All of this is "whitesplaining" of course best read with a plummy internal voice. A class level I seem to associate with even though my ancestors of a hundred and fifty or so years ago were canal maintenance workers. But feelings are powerful and important even if they aren't grounded in an actual reality. To the psyche it is as real as reality itself, probably more so, this devil's brew of the assumptions, indoctrination, imaginings, perceptions and ancestral memories overlaid on the subconscious and primal impulses.

It's so complicated that is probably best just to focus on yourself and let nature takes its course for others. There are more than enough shadows to grapple with within one's own cranium and our view will only ever be an approximate and narrow analogy of reality.

"In Australia, there is a widespread expectation that their Federal Government will roll back their responsible lending rules next week".
In NZ the Core Funding ratio was reduced from 75% down to 50%, and the LVR limits have been suspended. Moreover, the RBNZ has repeatedly invited the NZ banks to use their capital reserves and be "courageous". Interest rates are meaningless and the mis-pricing of risk is now a reality.
All these moves are irresponsible and are creating all the conditions for a future bigger version of the GFC. Having your money in a NZ bank term deposit is now just about indirectly subsidizing somebody else's risk taking, without any corresponding reward.
Time to get it out.

Agreed, all mine is heading to ozzy bank, either as soon as exchange rate drops another couple percent or when RBNZ mistakenly makes OCR negative. Whatever comes first. They are risking sensible peoples money on greedy selfish peoples need for more.

The gap between bank term deposits and kiwibonds is now only 1.15-0.5=0.65%. Its getting towards no-brainer territory.


Can you tell me when the CFR in NZ was reduced to 50%?

2 April 2020

All positive PCR tests are not all cases.

The virus is not always the disease.
PCR shows a testee has had virus, not necessarily Covid-19.

"As we have previously said about historical cases, we know that some people can return a positive PCR test long after they have recovered from the illness and are no longer infectious.

Walk thru with Peak Prosperity:

& Dr Sam

can any of the gold bulls here explain why it should be falling now? With increasing uncertainty over the US election, I would have expected to see it continue rising.

Because what happened quickly in March is happening slowly now.

can any of the gold bulls here explain why it should be falling now? With increasing uncertainty over the US election, I would have expected to see it continue rising.

In previous gold bull runs, the gold price has never goes up in a straight line. If you cannot stomach a 30% correction, you shouldn't own it.

I will comment on another Race item.....even though some might find it perplexing.

Just a link..this time, but no joke...I can assure you....Zero times.

Don't always follow Peter Schiff's views, but thought this was worth sharing:

Pity the poor old NZ Herald, Auckland Herald to the rest of us.

Twitter is going off in that the piece doesn't fit the PM dept narrative....
You know, lockdowns lovely......

Someone is playing merry hell with the website.
This article is no more.....

Happily it is still up at
By promoting fraudulent data, aggressively deploying disinformation, and flexing its institutional clout, Beijing transformed the snake oil of lockdowns into “science,” crippling rival economies, expanding its influence, and sowing authoritarian values.

Reach for the pop corn & Keep an eye on who says what next.

haha. Defintiely someone's propaganda. China or whoever. Massive operation. CFR 0.00....