Jobless claims rise in the US, benefits expire fast; US consumers cautious; Canada eyes negative rates; Canadian and Australian house building slows; UST 10y at 0.77%; oil up and gold down; NZ$1 = 65.8 USc; TWI-5 = 69.1

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the pandemic resurgence is snuffing out any chance of a near-term economic recovery.

In the US, the level of jobless claims came in higher than expected for last week at +840,000 and similar to the previous week. But the number of people still accessing unemployment benefits fell again as more people are seeing this support expire. This fell by more than -1 mln in a week and is now down to under 11 mln. There is still no Congressional or Administration agreement of benefit extensions.

And most experts don't see the American jobs numbers turning up until "2023 or later". That's two or three years of tough conditions ahead.

Yesterday the US Fed released its August household debt data. Instead of the expected +$14 bln rise from July, this debt fell by -US$7.2 bln, an unexpected -US$21 bln shift lower, and indicating American households are not helping their economic recovery by extra spending. The August level is only +0.4% more than the equivalent 2019 level.

In Canada, their central bank governor said that negative policy rates are an option there too.

And Canadian housing start data for September came in way less than expected and the August data was also revised lower.

In Australia, their August level of building consents was flat year-on-year, masking a huge -18% fall in approvals for apartments and townhouses.

Wall Street is up today by +0.6% in afternoon trade on the S&P500. European markets were up a similar amount last night. Yesterday Hong Kong was down -0.2% and Tokyo closed up a full +1.0%. Shanghai is back trading later today. Yesterday the ASX200 ended up +1.1% and the NZX50 Capital Index was up +1.8%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 36,281,000 and up at the new faster pace of +334,000 per day. Europe, and especially in the UK, and South America which is where the next wave is occurring. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,057,000 (+5000) but clearly many are going unreported.

The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which is up +57,000 in one day to 7,793,000 which is a rising pace. The number of active cases is at 2,578,000 so many more new cases that recoveries and going backwards on that front. Their death total is over 217,000 and still rising at about +1000 per day.

In Australia, there have now been 27,206 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is +24 more cases than yesterday with a spike in NSW. Deaths are unchanged, up to 897.

The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp to 0.77%. Their 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at +62 bps, their 1-5 curve is also unchanged at +20 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also little-changed at +69 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up +1 bp to 0.87%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.16%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up +2 bps to 0.55%.

The price of gold is down another -US$4 this morning at US$1882/oz in New York trade.

Oil prices start today up by about +US$1.50, now just over US$41/bbl in the US, while the international price is up to just under US$43.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today marginally lower at 65.8 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are down at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we little-changed at 56 euro cents. And that means our TWI-5 has slipped slightly to 69.1.

The bitcoin price is higher today, now at US$10,921 and +2.8% higher than this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».