Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that as American jobless benefits expire, the rise in poverty distress follows.
New claims for unemployment benefits in the US came in just under 900,000 last week and that was much higher than the 825,000 expected. And the number of people still qualified and getting these benefits fell by more than -1.2 mln last week to just on 10 mln, as the pace rises whereby the six month entitlement periods end. Remember, at its peak in March it was at almost 25 mln. Many will have gotten jobs since then (about +700,000) but that leaves a huge 14 mln who have lost benefit qualification. And there is still no progress on any Congressional plan to extend benefit entitlements. The social pressures are building to an ugly level.
The next set of regional Fed factory surveys are mixed although both are expanding. The Philly Fed one reports rising activity, but the New York one reports a pull-back in their region. Both have huge industrial bases.
Canada’s September home sales set a new record, soaring +45% from last year. And prices were up +10% year-on-year nationally although the biggest gains were in Ontario.
And that comes despite a larger-than-expected drop in payroll employment there.
In China, American investors have piled in to a big US$6 bln Chinese Government bond issue. More such issues are on the way.
China's consumer inflation fell to +1.7% above the same month a year ago and a 19 month low in September, as pork price growth eased. Observers say CPI still has someway to fall yet as the pork price gets back to some sort of normal after the ASF crisis. But the price of beef still rose sharply, although lamb prices less so. Factory prices are still falling there however.
In India, they have launched a US$10 bln infrastructure spending boost to try and arrest their downturn.
In Australia, the number of jobs fell there in September by a bit less than -30,000 and -20,000 of that loss was full-time employment. The Victorian lockdown caused this retreat. Their national jobless rate is now up to 6.9% and their participation rate fell to 64.8%. Underemployment is now at 11.4% there. Interestingly, the unemployment rate in Victoria is still much lower than the national average, coming in at 6.7%. NSW is now at 7.2% and Queensland is now 7.7%.
And the RBA has raised expectations of a November rate cut, possibly from 0.25% to 0.10%.
Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations rose in Australia in the latest survey, now up 3.4% pa from 3.1% last time the survey was run.
Wall Street is -0.4% lower today as recorded by the S&P500 and adding to yesterday's similar retreat. Overnight, European markets more than -2.1% lower on average. Yesterday, Shanghai traded down -0.3%, Hong Kong ended down -2.1% in a late fall away, and Tokyo was down -0.5%. The ASX200 ended its session up +0.5% from the prior day, but the NZX50 Capital Index was down -0.5% and ending its recent run of gains.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 38,687,000 and up at a faster pace of +383,000 in one day which is an all-time record one-day rise. The case growth is concentrated in Russia, the UK, Iran, France and Italy. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,094,000 (+6,000) but clearly many are going unreported.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +60,000 in one day to 8,169,000. The number of active cases is at 2,656,000 so as many new cases as recoveries and not making real progress yet. Their death total is over 222,000 and still rising at +1000 per day.
In Australia, there have now been 27,362 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is +21 more cases than we reported yesterday. Again, most were in NSW yesterday. Deaths are unchanged at 904.
The UST 10yr yield is unchanged this morning at just on 0.73%. Their 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at +58 bps, their 1-5 curve is still at +18 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also little-changed at +64 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield will start today down by a sharp -8 bps at just on 0.75%. The China Govt 10 year yield is firmer by +2 bps at 3.25%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is down -3 bps at 0.55%.
The price of gold is virtually unchanged at US$1904/oz.
Oil prices are little-changed, now just on US$40.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is a bit softer at US$42.75/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today lower by about -½c at 65.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 93 AUc and holding on to yesterday's gain. Against the euro we are softish at 56.3 euro cents. And that means our TWI-5 is also down about -40 bps at 69.4.
The bitcoin price is marginally firmer today, now at US$11,392. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».