Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news American competition authorities are tackling the dominance of big tech, finally.
But first up today, there was another dairy auction overnight and another small rise in the overall price. This is the third in a row and the smallest gain of the three. Rises for WMP (+0.3%) were smaller than the futures market had indicated. But there were good rises for butter (+3.3%) and cheese (+3.0%). In New Zealand dollars the gains were slightly better. Still, since this time last year, prices are still -9% lower in New Zealand dollar terms. It is very unlikely today's event will change any farm gate milk price forecast.
American retail sales were up +2.5% last week compared to the same week a year ago and that is better than the prior week's result.
US housing starts and building permit data for September recovered from the unexpected August stumbles - although for housing starts it wasn't a particularly strong bounceback, one made weaker because the August data was revised lower.
The US Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google, claiming the US$1 tln company uses its market power to fend off rivals and said nothing was off the table, including a breakup of the giant tech company.
Across the Pacific, Chinese house prices rose on average +4.6% in the year to September, marginally less than the +4.8% rise in the year to August. Among the 70 big cities in this survey, that range was from -2.9% to +16.8% annual change. Increases in both Beijing and Shanghai were mid-range.
Taiwanese export orders rose +10% in September, building on the very strong gains of July and August.
Hong Kong's jobless rate worsened in September to 6.4% and extending their dismal run.
In Australia between the week ending March 14 and October 3, payroll jobs decreased by -4.1% and wages fell by -3.3%, according to official data. That means -440,000 jobs were lost over that period. Over the two weeks to October 3, the number of jobs fell almost -1% and wages paid fell -2.2%, reversing improvements in the previous fortnight.
And last weeks revelation that the RBA would set its monetary policy based on their actual inflation, rather than inflation expectations was given more sunlight in yesterday's RBA minutes release. It is a major dovish shift and the AUD is taking a hit after the policymakers highlighted concern over its relatively high value. The NZD is sinking in sympathy. The RBA is now "certainly" going to cut its 0.25% policy rate on November 3, probably to 0.10%.
Wall Street has started today with the S&P500 up +1.1% in early afternoon trade. Overnight European markets fell by an average of -0.5%. Yesterday, Shanghai ended its Tuesday session up +0.5%, Hong Kong ended up +0.1%, and the large Tokyo exchange was down -0.4%. The ASX200 ended down -0.7% while the NZX50 ended up +0.6%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 40,550,000 and up +364,000 in one day. It is first-world countries that seem to be having the most difficulty containing the new wave. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,120,000 (+6,000 per day).
And Europe is locking down again and that will further embed their economic recession. They are closing its borders to most countries. The only exceptions are Singapore, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, Rwanda, South Korea, Thailand and Uruguay.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +78,000 in yesterday's update to 8,472,000. They are clearly now in a third wave (initial was in April, then a larger one in July, and this new one threatens to be larger again). The number of active cases is at 2,732,000 so many more new cases than recoveries. Their death total is over 226,000 and still rising at +1000 per day. If they choose 'herd immunity' as a goal, this will rise very dramatically because that will require about six times more infections than at present.
In Australia, there have now been 27,430 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is a jump of +31 more cases than we reported yesterday and a big spike in Perth. Deaths are unchanged at 905.
The UST 10yr yield is firmer this morning by +3 bps at just on 0.79%. Their 2-10 rate curve is steeper at +64 bps, their 1-5 curve is also steeper at +21 bps, along with their 3m-10 year curve, now up at +71 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield will start today with a +1 bp rise at 0.76%. The China Govt 10 year yield is down -1 bp at 3.22%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is little-changed, remaining at 0.54%.
The price of gold is little-changed from this time yesterday and now at US$1910/oz.
Oil prices are also little-changed today, just over US$41/bbl in the US, while the international price is still just under US$43/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today nearly -½c lower at just under 65.9 USc, although most of that fall came late yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are also little-changed at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we have also dropped -½c and to 55.7 euro cents. And that means our TWI-5 is still at 69.2.
The bitcoin price is +1.6% higher today than this time yesterday, now at US$11,960. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».