Breakfast briefing: Vaccine news catapults the Biden bounce

Biden bounce pushed higher by vaccine success; China new car sales shine; Taiwan posts big trade surplus; UK weights move on PE tax breaks; UST 10y at 0.96%; oil rises and gold sinks; NZ$1 = 68.1 USc; TWI-5 = 71.1

10th Nov 20, 7:21am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news risk is 'on' in a big way today.

First, global financial markets are delivering a strong Biden bounce. Equities are up sharply as are benchmark bond yields. Commodity prices are generally higher, some have jumped a lot. But precious metals have sunk in very big moves.

The Chinese yuan has hit its strongest position in more than two years, as investors bet a Democratic president and a divided Congress could lead to reduced US-China tensions and a weaker dollar.

Helping the adjustment significantly is also news that the Pfizer/BioNTech virus vaccine has delivered very promising results. USFDA approval is now expected for the vaccine in two weeks.

American consumer inflation expectations slipped back from +3.0% in September to +2.8% in October. Most other household financial expectation metrics declined as well. Of course, these results are from a survey taken pre-election.

In China, new car sales rose above the 2 mln/month mark in October and cementing its status as the world's largest car market - and by a significant margin (the US sold 1.3 mln cars in October). A feature of the Chinese result is the sharp growth in electric vehicles, doubling in a year.

And China has brought in new tougher regulations for disinfecting frozen and cold-chain food imports as part of its coronavirus response.

And following China, Taiwan has turned in another very impressive trade result, recording a +US$7.5 bln surplus in October and far above the +US$5 bln expected. Exports rose +11%, imports fell -1%.

The EU said it will impose tariffs on $4 bln of American imports, including Boeing aircraft, as part of a long-running trade dispute initiated by Washington.

In the UK, they are moving to remove special tax breaks for private equity firms. It is a move that could also be mirrored in the US.

Wall Street has reached all-time highs today with the S&P500 up +3.3% in early afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets rose even more than that with Frankfurt up +4.9%, Paris up a massive +7.6% in its Monday session, and London up +4.7%. Yesterday's pre-cursor in Shanghai was modest by comparison, up a still-strong +1.9%. Hong Kong gained +1.2% and the very large Tokyo exchange rose +2.1%. Locally the ASX200 was up +1.9% and the NZX50 Capital Index was up +1.8%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 50,591,000 and up a sharp +539,000 rise in the past day. It is particularly grim in France, Russia, the UK and central and southern Italy with very serious stress on their hospital systems. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,258,000 and up +8,000 in just one day.

The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +105,000 since this time yesterday to 10,302,000. The US is the global epicenter of the virus. The pandemic is now particularly sever in Midwest states. The number of active cases is surging at 3,574,000 so many more new cases more than recoveries. Their death total now exceeds 244,000 and continuing to rise by more than +1000 a day.

In Australia, they are not getting any resurgence. There have now been 27,668 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is just +10 more cases than we reported yesterday and most in NSW. Reported deaths remain unchanged at 907.

The UST 10yr yield will start today with a very big move, up +14 bps at 0.96%. As a consequence, their rate curves have steepened sharply. Their 2-10 rate curve is up +10 bps at +77 bps, their 1-5 curve is up +8 bps at +32 bps, while with their 3m-10 year curve is up +13 bps at +86 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield will start today up +11 bps at 0.90%. The China Govt 10 year yield is also higher at 3.26% and a +4 bps rise. But the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is only +3 bps higher, now at 0.60%.

The price of gold has fallen a massive -US$92/oz from this time yesterday, down to US$1858/oz. That is a -4.7% drop. And if you think that is unusual, the drop for silver is almost twice that level.

Oil prices have jumped higher today by a notable +US$3/bbl and are now at just on US$40.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just on US$42.50/bbl.

And the Kiwi dollar is much firmer this morning at 68.1 USc and adding to last week's sharp rise. That takes it to its highest since March 2019. The market's fear of tomorrow's RBNZ policy easing moves isn't strong. Against the Australian dollar we are also much firmer at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we up more than +½c at 57.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 will start today at 71.1 and near its high for the year.

The bitcoin price starts today -2% lower at at US$15,093. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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72 Comments

by bw | 10th Nov 20, 7:52am 1604947924

Let's hope the reported vaccine is an answer to Covid19. And what should that mean?
"We" don't need to support the economy any longer than necessary; let it get back to looking after itself. Let The Market determine the cost of money and asset allocation etc. without artificial intervention.
If there is one abiding lesson we should have learned from all of this it's to "Be prepared". New Zealand wasn't; for the virus (there WILL be another one at some stage), the last and next earthquakes, the next flood, the next unforeseen happening, and if the RBNZ has any sense today (tomorrow might be too late) it will recognise that fact ( finally!) and set us on a different path to the one we are one, or we won't be ready next time. And just as Tonga has to hope that we will come to its aid when it gets hit with the inevitable, New Zealand will likewise have to go cap-in-hand to its benefactor ( and who might that be?!). Do we want that? I don't!
We must build our defences, now.

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Nov 20, 7:49am 1604947796

Yep. Capacitance was what the neolib nonsense eliminated, but that wasn't the only trend. Since '84, we've seen every physical indicator moving in the 'wrong' direction at accelerating rates. And we have stratified as the supply became contested. So multiple changes have to be made, simultaneously. No elected Govt will dare do this, so collapse is inevitable.

We could soften the blow - and prepare folk for the future, mentally - by having a discussion about productivity (the application of energy and real work, not the ###### that economists tell us is 'work') versus parasitism. I may come as an unwelcome shock to some....
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/replacing-rentier-capitalis…

by Hamish | 10th Nov 20, 7:59am 1604948377

When you say elected Govt, you mean us ay? Because the government is us and supposedly is representative of the collective mood amongst the populace.

by Lapun | 10th Nov 20, 8:06am 1604948795

I'm not sure what is classed as a 'physical indicator'. Many things are going wrong but at least there are many commentators such as yourself saying so. And as an overcrowded world becomes more complex it also becomes more at risk. However since '84 there have been progress - the most obvious being the dramatic increase in education especially of women and reduction in absolute poverty. If by physical you only mean resources and especially mining of minerals then haven't there been dramatic improvements alongside those moving in the wrong direction - simple things such as transistors getting ever smaller so a radio needs less copper. I suppose my comment is against your use of the word 'every'; you are giving up all hope.

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Nov 20, 8:40am 1604950815

Lapun - it is nothing to do with hope, or 'giving up'.

It's just a matter of fact(s). Educating women and miniaturising electronics are not antidotes to a population ALREADY grossly overshot, and overshot on the basis of drawdown and failure to mitigate.

Hope is nothing in physics. There were optimists on the Titanic too - the displacement problem overrode their buoyancy.....

by Roger the dodger | 10th Nov 20, 9:23am 1604953381

It's all a big Control loop. 'Overshoot' or Error will be corrected, most likely by the system eventually overshooting in the opposite direction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PID_controller
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_loop

Is "Hope" part of the control loop? Actually, maybe it is.

by scarfie | 10th Nov 20, 7:55am 1604948122

It takes 6-10 years to develop a vaccine, anything released on the public inside that time is an experiment.

by Independent_Observer | 10th Nov 20, 9:20am 1604953223

You not volunteering Scarfie?

by murray86 | 10th Nov 20, 10:14am 1604956449

He's immune. He has already established that.

by fortunr | 10th Nov 20, 8:04am 1604948663

I completely agree.
It is high time to sack Orr, put somebody with some sense at the helm of the RBNZ, and immediately start a slow and cautious, but progressive upward trend with interest rates. A good start would be an immediate increase of the OCR to 0.75%, complete stop or significant reduction to QE and definitely no Funding for Lending Programme. And, of course, no negative interest rates idiocy, not even as a potential scenario.

by bw | 10th Nov 20, 8:10am 1604949054

I'll disagree with some of your thoughts to the degree that 'we are so far in it' that rasing interest rates now would be catastrophic. It shouldn't have got to that stage, but it has. So in the longer term, yes. But right now? We need to start by targetting where new and roll-over debt gets used. It's not that hard! Just take away the obvious current distortions of where we currently apply our money, and a new target will be latched onto.
We've had no problems ploughing every disposable cent in property ( and to some degree shares and alternative assets - gold BTC etc) because 'we could'. Disincentivise those opportunities for attracting debt, and it will go to building another business (for instance).
It's no so much about 'what we do' at the moment, but what we stop doing.

by Philby | 10th Nov 20, 8:20am 1604949641

From 1 Jan 2021 make the interest on all forms of debt non deductible for tax and interest earned non assessable. That should help first home buyers compete with speculators/investors.

by Independent_Observer | 10th Nov 20, 9:19am 1604953168

The business model of property investment might be kaput if you did that

by spinach1 | 10th Nov 20, 10:06am 1604955973

Yep, I took that as the object and you do mean speculation rather than investment, don't you?

by Pragmatist | 10th Nov 20, 10:23am 1604957026

No, both investment and speculation would be dead in the water, as would pretty much every non-property business from car yards, to corner dairies.

by murray86 | 10th Nov 20, 10:41am 1604958082

Maybe. The tax basis could be changed from debt to other things like employees - the more employees, the less tax. Build into that another rebate for the level of the median wage in the company, so again the higher the median wage, the less tax. These areas could be structured so that contractors do not qualify for the tax rebate. Effectively encouraging employment and better wages. This could go so far as to make it possible for a company to pay no tax if it employed enough people on good wages. The Government wouldn't miss out as it would get PAYE from the employees, and those employees would be spending and again generating both GST and stimulating other business.

Pitfalls could be single individuals (possibly tradesman) starting out in their own business, and needing debt to get started. But there could be qualifying criteria built in (timeframes, type of business etc).

by ham n eggs | 10th Nov 20, 8:15am 1604949334

"progressive upward trend with interest rates..."

Result; massive deflation and even weaker demand
Falling incomes & jobs
its all Too late now
we are consuming debt and have to until debt breaks

by Battinz | 10th Nov 20, 8:03am 1604948622

It will be forgotten by the time the next one rolls around, in favour of lean operating. Fortunately it's a situation when remoteness is an advantage.

by Foxglove. | 10th Nov 20, 8:20am 1604949653

Is this vaccine to be as per such as, polio, TB,measles, small pox in that the community is more or less safeguarded or is to be as per the annual flu jab in so much that you may still get whacked but then, in a more moderate form?

by waymad | 10th Nov 20, 10:04am 1604955894

Matt Ridley, way back in 2010 ('Rational Optimist') noted that a global pandemic was one of the Black Swans that could derail the March to the Sunlit Uplands. In more recent writings, he notes that the old 10-year, tens of billions trial process for new drugs is not useful in a pandemic. Instead of the Hippocratic Oath 'First, do no harm', what's needed is a slightly dangerous preventative that, on balance, kills or maims substantially less than the bug it's designed to counter. Guess-and-test is what he urges as the way out of the cul-de-sac of excessive 'precaution'. Trade-offs everywhere....it's called 'Life'.

by SimonP | 10th Nov 20, 3:51pm 1604976709

Unfortunately trade-offs affect some people disproportionately, like Northern Rock investors or poor people in areas strongly affected by climate change. Not all of us have the rental income of England's largest coal mine to fall back on when things go pear-shaped.

by Carlos67 | 10th Nov 20, 10:21am 1604956903

People are putting to much hope in a vaccine and I'm for one not going to take ANYTHING that comes out in a rush. You lot can be the Guinea pigs, works for me you need 80%+ vaccinated and you have herd immunity anyway.

by Flying high | 10th Nov 20, 7:51am 1604947895

DJI back virtually to all-time highs... i suspect it could carry on as earnings are unusually strong

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Nov 20, 7:53am 1604948024

member for 1 month, and sounding like a spruiker.

Perhaps tell us how that compares to issued debt?

by Flying high | 10th Nov 20, 8:00am 1604948450

thank you for the recognition pdk... but in my case its longtime listener, first time caller, anyway tell me I am wrong in regards to earnings instead of ad-hom

Speaking of spruiking... I see the jump is being called the 'Biden' (aka Bye-Don) Bounce

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Nov 20, 9:06am 1604952413

Earnings originating in debt, are a forward bet being made with a forward bet.

None of the bettors, in shares or in the debt-issuing banks, are measuring the underwrite.

Thus we can trace the increase in share prices (and house ditto) to the digital issuance. But we can assume the last bet-collection will always be the biggest; and that some ' last collection' will not be underwritten.

Biden won't change anything; virtue signalling while conveniently hamstrung - much like our current Govt. The desperate need for 'growth' drives all politics and is the unchallenged assuager of voter angst. Except that it is a long-term impossibility......

by Flying high | 10th Nov 20, 9:27am 1604953636

"conveniently hamstrung - much like our current Govt"
Wow-wee, the excuses for the red team have begun already, you obviously have little to no faith in them lolz

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Nov 20, 9:46am 1604954766

Their problem - if you listened carefully to the PM on election night - is that they want to keep the ' blue' voters who stepped across the fence. This means placation of farmers instead of actually doing conservation (in the real sense). This means calling-in seabed mining turn-downs. This means allowing slave-wage slave-condition labour into the boats which fish out 'quota', indeed subsidising it via Health effort required. To placate short-term-taught voters (and we have the MSM to thank for dropping that ball), politicians have to short-term compromise. We just ran out of road and the next can-kick goes over the cliff.

Having watched for 50 years, I have no faith that democracy cam indeed deliver - it would need us to say: 'OK, the next 10 generations deserve equal representation at Election time'. I can't see that happening, but.....

by Independent_Observer | 10th Nov 20, 8:10am 1604949014

Do you have a link regarding earnings?

by Andrewj | 10th Nov 20, 8:05am 1604948734

We got 50mm of rain last night 65mm in the past few days, i actually have grass lying flat on the ground. The store market has really strengthened and we should start seeing some pretty crazy prices.
I will probably do some more topping to try and keep the quality up. Still streams not flowing. A friend lost an 80 year old kauri tree his grandfather bought back from a holiday in Coromandel. It didn't survive this dry patch, even though it's over two feet through, he is in a much better rainfall area than me but said he same thing, dig a hole and down a foot it's all dust.
Markets do some strange things these days, this is the past few months action in the Soy meal market, sounds like Brazil really got caught short.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/soybean-meal-price?op=1

by Flying high | 10th Nov 20, 8:14am 1604949276

We did some poplar poles this year, first-time and growing well... have had 43 mm since Thursday

Sad about the kauri tree

by Andrewj | 10th Nov 20, 8:29am 1604950178

this rain was cold and all the cattle walked away from the wind and ended up with no shelter, trying to reason with them was pointless. The cattle have summer coats and last night must have been uncomfortable.

I have found Kawa are the best poplar for the flats but Veronese are tougher on the dryer country.

by Andrewj | 10th Nov 20, 8:48am 1604951308

Napier got flooded, every time it floods in Napier they dump sewage into the estuary, someone screwed up with the planning of subdivisions and now ratepayers are on the hook. Lots of development around Napier looks to me to be below high tide.

by Wilco | 10th Nov 20, 9:29am 1604953752

I am pleased to report that we have had season changing rainfall up here. Parts of the flats went under water. Up to last week we felt doom and gloom as we appeared to be heading into yet another drought, though can it be classed a drought if it happens nearly every year?
So now we have a chance of recovering the 8-10% we are behind with Fonterra season to date. Around 100ml in a week. Our silage paddocks are thickening up and the cattle are starting to get a shiny coat.
If I was 20 years younger you would almost say I had a spring in my step.

by Andrewj | 10th Nov 20, 10:02am 1604955740

if it helps, my grandfather always said 'early droughts break early', he could still be a wise man.

Man oh man am I going to grow grass. I also put some millet and that stuff can grow a meter in 60 days, have you ever tried it? looks like that field will be hay or baleage.
All the best have a beer on me.

by Alter Ego | 10th Nov 20, 10:00am 1604955613

Building on a Flood Plain, it is plain to see, stupidity still prevails, just like building on a sea Shore, with nothing to shore them up when the Storms hit. Duh!. Drainage, does not flow up hill, Councils may learn one day and stop wasting your rates on stupid things and allowing stupid people to do stupid things to be nearer....Water and Water Tables. It ain't Rocket Science....

by waymad | 10th Nov 20, 10:07am 1604956054

Flood plains, as has been known for millennia, are generally one of the more Fertile acreages around. It's because of them Floods and the silt......

by Andrewj | 10th Nov 20, 10:53am 1604958811

that will be why we grow houses all over them

by Casual Observer | 10th Nov 20, 5:43pm 1604983388

Andrew - any reports on the effect on the HB fruit industry? Some of the cherry growers would be close to picking if not already started and that rain could decimate their crops.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Nov 20, 8:17am 1604949439

All this time it seems like it was interest rates that were holding things back. With almost zero interest rates things can really get moving with business, industry and asset prices. Even with a global pandemic things seem to have never been better. Perhaps usury is a bad thing?

It never seemed right to me that money just sitting in a bank should earn a healthy income. It should be the least paying "investment".

by ham n eggs | 10th Nov 20, 8:23am 1604949784

"things seem to have never been better."

It depends on who you are ... Slumlorders and RE agents ... sure

But if you think ridiculous quantities of QE & massive govt deficits signals a sustainable outlook you might want to reread your tea leaves

by ham n eggs | 10th Nov 20, 8:32am 1604950320

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/11/02/183-a-new-stark…

"Third, this squeeze on household disposable prosperity is going to (a) have severely adverse effects on discretionary (non-essential) consumer spending, and (b) put at risk many of the forward income streams (mortgages, rents, credit, stage payments, subscriptions) that form the basis of far too many corporate plans, and have been capitalized into far too many traded assets."

by Independent_Observer | 10th Nov 20, 8:37am 1604950674

Dis you Donald?

by Audaxes | 10th Nov 20, 10:08am 1604956107

things seem to have never been better.

Citizenship was grounded not in equal access to economic competition but in shared participation in a common life and a common political dialogue. The aim was not to hold out the promise of escape from the “labouring classes,” Lasch contended, but to ground the values and institutions of democracy in the inventiveness, industry, self-reliance, and self-respect of working people.

Unfortunately Lasch’s observations may well have been correct but with the passage of time his prescriptions are actually becoming less pervasive than he contended since the publication of his book in 1995. The American ruling stratum have if anything gutted the United States of the (albeit limited) idealism of the 1945-63 period and a genuine commitment to a democratic polity but instead are committed to a ruthless, winner-take-all, greed-is-good, economic, and social barbarism. Herewith an interesting insight from one of F Scott Fitzgerald’s characters – Amory Blaine – in one of the earlier novels.

‘’I detest poor people’’, thought Amory suddenly. ‘’I hate them for being poor. Poverty may have been beautiful once, but its rotten now. It is the ugliest thing in the world. It is essentially better to be corrupt and rich than it is to be innocent and poor.’’ He seemed to see again a figure whose significance had once impressed him – a well-dressed young man gazing from a club window on Fifth Avenue and saying something to his companion with a look of profound disgust. Probably thought Amory, what he said was: ‘’My God! Aren’t people horrible!’’(5) Such has been and is a fortiori the view of their fellow countrymen by America’s haute bourgeoisie.Link

by KH | 10th Nov 20, 8:20am 1604949648

House prices are a national disaster affecting all New Zealand citizens.
And meanwhile, all our political parties determinedly gaze in the opposite direction.

by bw | 10th Nov 20, 8:33am 1604950435

There's nothing wrong with the median home price in New Zealand being $1million if the median wage is $300,000 p.a. That is evidence of an efficient, vibrant, developing economy where work effort is rewarded ahead of asset speculation. "You get rich from your day-job" - making and selling things, in other words.
But we only have one of those variables in place here at the moment ( and it's not the wages one). That isn't a sign of success, it's one of policy failure.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Nov 20, 9:12am 1604952767

It's not house prices that are a disaster but certain people inability to borrow large amounts of money. Generally a series of very poor "life choices" has put them in a very bad position with the bank who wont go near them with a ten foot barge pole as far as lending them money is concerned.

It is now proven that it is advantageous to have a very high debt level for what is better to have, $250,000 in the bank or $1,000,000 mortgage on a ~~goose that lays golden eggs~~ Auckland property? Surely the latter?

Education, developing a career, clean living, and a clean credit record and success with obtaining a large mortgage is practically assured. In fact your whole life focus should be on being able to qualify for a large mortgage. This is not as silly as it sounds when you really think about in an age where interest rates are low, going lower and are unlikely to ever rise again.

Those fools who disparaged credit are looking very, very silly now.

by ham n eggs | 10th Nov 20, 8:37am 1604950659

Blessed credit eh....
Its all LEVERAGE
Over the future
That one you were meant to pass on

by Zachary Smith | 10th Nov 20, 9:11am 1604952680

All I can say is, that for me personally, whenever I have developed a cautious and pessimistic attitude things have not gone well and I have missed many opportunities. If I could relive my life over I would work on developing an attitude of optimism and positivity and a sense of endless bounty. This is far closer to the truth than yours or PDK's medieval doomsayer worldviews.

by ham n eggs | 10th Nov 20, 9:54am 1604955261

Can i rephrase your comment

Anyone who has taken on Debt over the last 40 years has been richly rewarded
The "opportunity" turned out to be ever increasing leverage in the financial system
So caution has been penalised, risk rewarded and then rewarded
BUT the maths of leverage become far more difficult at 0% interest (ignoring the complication of resources/ leverage of the environment)

So we now have only appreciation
No clean market
No price discovery
No risk
Everything is underwritten

Which some may interpret as an endless bounty

But would someone who lived 100 years ago comprehend an asset simply appreciating 10% in a month?

by ham n eggs | 10th Nov 20, 10:02am 1604955744

or alternatively

What we have now is an economy where WAGES are for idiots
Its leverage of funny money where we should all be "working"
Perhaps we should ban wage earners?
Their lack of spending power is bringing the economy down

by redcows1 | 10th Nov 20, 12:36pm 1604965000

Problem is between personal tax and gst they are the ones paying the tax that then subsidises the rest.

by Independent_Observer | 10th Nov 20, 8:42am 1604950961

Almost fell off my chair reading that! Nice one.

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Nov 20, 9:10am 1604952617

Linguistically correct; they passed on it

by scarfie | 10th Nov 20, 10:43am 1604958180

Evolutionary psychologytheory says you are correct, that those who are deluded about reality tend to do better whereas those who see reality have higher rates of mental illness. But I suspect this is only half the story, the delusion works until it suddenly doesn't.

by redcows1 | 10th Nov 20, 12:40pm 1604965244

This doesn't line up well with the many calls for better financial literacy. Always been my belief if we were really me more financially literate we'd be even more scared of the Reality.

by Andrewj | 10th Nov 20, 8:37am 1604950649

if you own a house it's all on the up side and even if you are a buyer the money you are paying is, while more than before ,actual affordability hasn't changed much, the low interest has been capitalised into the price, you pay a lot less interest a lot more capital. I haven't done the numbers as Im just not into owning other peoples houses.
I suspect it's immigration that is really putting heat on, crazy high immigration % for a small country, people from the UK have a long history of running up house prices, been a winner there for decades.

by Roger Witherspoon | 10th Nov 20, 10:40am 1604958055

We seem to need some new ideas. House prices going up is in some ways an index of wages going down against house prices. I'm not convinced it is necessarily a bad or good thing, it depends on the effects it has. Some people benefit, which may not be a problem, but some people lose out, which is.

Why don't we give each citizen half a house when they reach 28? Yes, I know it sounds daft, but the idea comes from a more traditional one, the family, if it can afford it, buys a house for each of their children when they marry. The big advances in society come from spreading the things the wealthy have throughout society. Roman plutocrats had central heating, servants to carry water and do their washing. We now have these (well, except for the central heating, but we are getting there, the rest of the Western world got there years ago). Plumbing, washing machines and tumble dryers have freed up countless hours.

The purpose of QE, low interest rates, MMT and other ways of diluting the purchasing power of the currency, is to keep the economy functioning. There is no reason why we can't do so in novel ways, as long as we are careful about it and spend the money wisely. The hydro-power plants Muldoon built have turned out well, other big ideas not so much.

Speaking of which, the idea of diluting the purchasing power of the currency only affects one factor of production, wages. If we want to compete industrially with China, we need cheap labour and cheap energy. No one much (apart from pdk, of course, bless him) talks about international electricity prices as a major area of competition, but it is argueably the most important.

Should we be thinking about international competitiveness more? What about free education, trades and degrees, for all engineering and technology related sectors? How do we get our electricity prices below China's?

Electricity price in China is USD 0.08 per kw/hr, in the USA it is $0.15, in NZ it is USD 0.23. No wonder our industrial base has been destroyed and currency dilution has not solved the problem. Out of interest, Japan is USD 0.29, so again, no wonder they stopped taking over the world. Germany is 0.37, France $0.21, Italy $0.26, GB 0.26, all in industrial decline for decades.
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/

by Independent_Observer | 10th Nov 20, 9:16am 1604953005

Don’t worry about the real economy Roger - as long as house prices double every 10 years in NZ then all is well (while incomes rise with CPI...what can possibly go wrong?)

by Alter Ego | 10th Nov 20, 12:13pm 1604963591

When you owe munny on a mort-gage, for 40 years, you can keep paying the debt while working. The systematic failure occurs, when you are like Donald, "Fired" from office, picking fruit, whatever, and you cannot pay your mort-gage, rent assunder and living in a car or on the streets.

The so called "Interest Rates" are a mere baga-tell as it is the Capital you owe that is the biggest bug-bear. And when a Bear Market, like they are so affraid of happening, the shit hits the fan, the streets, the loss of your two bathroom house, that will not pay dividends, cos you is out of Work...and up shite creek..........And that is why interst rates have been forced down and Houses leveraged up to give the illusion of 'prosperity".....spelt with small letters......not "Capital"......get my drift.....Banks are fearful.....and losing munny......it is all a dream, an illusion now........doubling up works.......if Money Rotates...when it comes to a sudden stop......unless "Socialism" pays the rent, for ever and a Day....the Free Market in the middle for diddle world of munny making is like when in Lock Down....supported by State Debt.......not mine.

Cos you idiots cannot see what is right in front of your Face.....Higher Debt, Higher Risk......even when mortgages in "SUSPENSION"...ya still gotta pay the Piper, The Drainlayer, The shitting a brick-layer, the high and mighty Politicians with two or 3 rentals, the Bwankers wages, the Fiddlers musical endeavors, the pub with no beer, the waiter with a Govt Support for his standing around waiting, the Big Business, with Covid support, plus of course....the newly minted small business loans, the Punters at the races, (Supported by Winston, I might add)........But the debt is never mentioned.......but shon-key houses are......cos we is diffrunt to the rest of the Planet......we avoid taxes.......but pay over the odds for the .....trouble....with "Borrowed Funny Munny".....X 14 per $....saved.

I see Napier has Car Pooling and floods of tears....who will pay....hope they are all insured....Chrischurch is still praying for redemption....ask a Fat Man, cos it ain't over till the thin lady ....sings. (Labour intensive...we Ain't.).

by bw | 10th Nov 20, 9:18am 1604953130

Perhaps your post sums up "Why are we here"? The deteriorating values that have created the society that we previously lived in.
For instance: Why on earth would a young man get married today?
Any perks that came along with that are freely available on-line. Unlike a woman, he doesn't have the imperative or the possibility to reproduce as she does. If it all goes wrong, he'll be worth half of what he was before. Why would he support another set of people when his job can't even support himself without debt?
You're right, though. We need to look at things in another way, and perhaps it's not the pasts 'half a house' solution we need so much as 'neither a borrower nor a lender be'.

by Roger Witherspoon | 10th Nov 20, 10:38am 1604957926

Polonius's speech, indeed. I never did get the hang of this bit:
Give thy thoughts no tongue, Nor any unproportioned thought his act.

http://www.readwritethink.org/files/resources/lesson_images/lesson372/P…

by karl seastrand | 10th Nov 20, 11:46am 1604962012

bw... "why would a young man get married" when perks are "freely available online". Are you referring to online dating or the abundance of online porn now available to satisfy your every need? Don't worry, we know you were just commenting for a friend.

by waymad | 10th Nov 20, 10:17am 1604956657

And Aussie prices (even though, on average nation-wide excluding WA, 80% of baseload is carried by brown and black Coal), consumer prices are in the high 30c/kwh. And they have the additional joy of coping with massive instant generation dropouts caused by 'renewables' (known in the trade as 'Unreliables') as the sun goes behind clouds, the wind blows too slow, too fast, or not at all. But those pesky Consumers expect juice outta the socket 24/7.....

by Roger Witherspoon | 10th Nov 20, 10:52am 1604958743

The odd thing about coal, is that it seems to have a really good eroei, energy return on energy invested, not quite as good as hydro, but not far off. I rather like the idea of energy accounting. It is a pity the authoritarian lefties seized on carbon dioxide instead, as their joker to seize power.

I found this article thought provoking, his analysis of the past seemed relevant, even if his conclusions are, to me at least, a tad bonkers.

https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/11/06/the-narrative-problem-aft…

by Tradersam | 10th Nov 20, 9:30am 1604953826

Has anyone read between the lines of what the WEF (the Davos crowd) are saying for the proposed ‘Great Reset ‘ Dystopia.

by Independent_Observer | 10th Nov 20, 9:38am 1604954303

Is this a question or a statement(?)

by ZOG | 10th Nov 20, 10:19am 1604956773

Klaus Schwab speech ? Was that in 2017 he started talking about the "great reset"

by Roger Witherspoon | 10th Nov 20, 10:58am 1604959089

"You will own nothing, and you will be happy"

Presumably part of the Euroland fantasy that the intelligentsia and their (very, very, very rich) friends will inherit the earth. Vladimir Ulyanov thought much the same, of course.

by Tradersam | 10th Nov 20, 9:54am 1604955250

Rather ironic they announce the vaccine after Biden’s win - feels planned and stage managed. JMO.

by spinach1 | 10th Nov 20, 10:33am 1604957585

I'm just curious to maybe hear the suggestion either that if Trump had remained that a vaccine would not have been available or that because of Biden that it is.

by northman46 | 10th Nov 20, 10:38am 1604957891

Why? I'm sure it would have been announced after a Trump win too.