Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets are much more cautious today, winding back the post-election, post-vaccine enthusiasm.
In the US, new claims for jobless benefits fell marginally to 723,000 although the previous week's number was revised up. That makes the total number of people supported by these benefits at now 21.2 mln and that is down -374,000 in a week. This shows -1.1 mln people lost qualification in a week or found work. This time last year, the total number on jobless benefits was 1.4 mln.
There is almost no chance new support for those who have lost their jobs is arriving before the new President is sworn in. And after that, it will depend on the makeup of the Senate after the Georgia runoff election.
And American inflation is falling. Overall inflation is +1.2% pa, and core inflation (without food or energy) is at +1.6%. Both measures are lower in October than September. Food prices were up +3.9% in a year, petrol prices were down -18% in a year. Rents are up +2.0%, medical care is up +3.7%.
Meanwhile, prices for single family homes rose +12% in the September quarter, the fastest rise in seven years. A lot of this is being driven by higher prices on both the East and West Coast states.
In Canada, homeowners there are bracing for rising mortgage interest rates. As bond rates turn up, Canadians may be the first to feel the impact of a turn up in the rates they pay.
The ten member ASEAN trade group has started on building a travel corridor between each of them.
And Wall Street is slipping today. The S&P500 is down -1.1% in early afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets also fell, mostly by about -1.2%. Yesterday's Shanghai fell another -0.1%. Hong Kong fell -0.2% but the very large Tokyo exchange rose +0.7%. Locally the ASX200 ended down -0.5% and the NZX50 Capital Index ended unchanged.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 52,331,000 and a surge of +467,000 rise in the past day. It is still grim in France, Russia, the UK, Spain and central and southern Italy with very serious stress on their hospital systems. And the death rate is rising. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,288,000 and up +12,000 in just one day.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +146,000 since this time yesterday to 10,730,000. The US remains the global epicenter of the virus. The number of active cases is surging at 3,828,000 and now rising at almost +100,000 per day of more new cases more than recoveries. Their death total now exceeds 248,000 and continuing to rise by more than +1000 a day. The US now has a death rate matching Bolivia, Mexico and the UK.
In Australia, they are not getting any resurgence. There have now been 27,698 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is just +12 more cases than we reported yesterday and spread around the country - except Victoria. Reported deaths remain unchanged at 907.
The UST 10yr yield will start today much lower than yesterday at 0.90% and a fall of -6 bps. Their 2-10 rate curve is flatter at +73 bps, their 1-5 curve is also flatter at +28 bps, and their 3m-10 year curve has flattened to +81 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is also down -6 bps at 0.90%. The China Govt 10 year yield is up +2 bps at 3.28%. But the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is down -2 bps, now at 0.86%.
The price of gold has risen today, up +US$16/oz from this time yesterday, and now US$1880/oz.
Oil prices are stable today and are still at just over US$42/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$44.50/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar has settled at its higher level, now at 68.8 USc and its highest since March 2019. Against the Australian dollar we are also unchanged at 94.6 AUc. Against the euro we are a little softer at 58.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is still at 71.8 and its high for the year.
The bitcoin price is another up +2.5% this morning at US$16,138. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».