Breakfast briefing: Black Friday may really be black

Trepidation ahead of Black Friday sales; US and Canada housing up; 737MAX get approval; EU car sales slump; China bond woes grow; Aussie wage growth stalls; UST 10y at 0.87%; oil up and gold down; NZ$1 = 69.3 USc; TWI-5 = 72

19th Nov 20, 7:18am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of an increasing gloom and doom mood settling in, in the US and Europe.

The US holiday season retail countdown is on and promotions are everywhere. But the events this year are starting with an air on desperation, even panic. Black Friday (November 27) may end up signaling a black mood.

Meanwhile, US housing starts came in better than expected for October and well above the year-ago level.

And the US regulator, the FAA, has approved the Boeing 737MAX as safe to fly when changes in software, design and training are applied. Given the state of the airline industry, it may be a hollow milestone.

Canadian CPI inflation came in at +0.7% and slightly higher than was anticipated. Rents drove the blip. Core inflation (without food or energy) was at +1.0%. A year ago, Canadian CPI inflation was running at +1.9%.

House prices in Canada rose a record for an October gain.

After making a welcome recovery of +3% in September from a year ago, car registrations in the EU slumped nearly -8% in October in what is a grim indicator for them. That means that in the ten months of 2020, they have sold -25% fewer cars than in the same period in 2019. It was worse in the UK (-31%). That means in Europe, more than 3.3 mln fewer cars have been sold so far this year (and equivalent to selling zero cars in Germany, their largest market). And now Germany is pumping in more than NZ$8 bln to help their car industry cope.

In China, the number of SOE's and other private companies in trouble with their bond obligations continues to grow and markets are bracing for multiple large defaults.

And China is continuing its order sell-down of US Treasury holdings according to September data released overnight. That means its has reduced its holding by -US$40 bln in a year, at a time UST issuance has risen by +US3.1 tln in the same period.

Wage rises in Australia virtually vanished in the September quarter, up just +0.07% pa from the prior quarter. Over the full year it was up +1.4%. That's a record low. The RBA has stated that to generate CPI inflation within its target band, wages will have to grow at a pace of +3.5% to +4%. There is zero indication that is about to happen. (For comparison, in the same September quarter, New Zealand wage growth was +2.7% year-on-year.)

In New York, the S&P500 has risen a marginal +0.2% in midday trade today. Overnight, European markets were up a marginal +0.5%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its session down -1.1%, Hong Kong was up +0.4%, and Shanghai closed up +0.2%. The ASX200 was up +0.5%, while the NZX50 Capital Index also closed sharply lower, down -1.3%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 55,828,000 and a +584,000 rise from yesterday. It is grim in France, Russia, the UK, Spain and central and southern Italy with very serious stress on their hospital systems. It is even worse in Belgium. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,342,000 and up +11,000 from yesterday.

The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +157,000 since this time yesterday to 11,718,000. The US remains the global epicenter of the virus. The number of active cases is surging at 4,373,000 and that level is up +88,000 in one day, so many more new cases more than recoveries. Hospitalisations jumped +10% in just five days. Their death total now exceeds 255,000 and continuing to rise by more than +1000 a day. The US now has a COVID death rate matching Bolivia, Mexico, and Italy of 768/mln. The UK is no longer in that comparison because it's has shot up to 783/mln.

In Australia, they are not getting any major resurgence. There have now been 27,777 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is just +21 more cases in both NSW and the South Australian cluster. Now 93 of their cases are 'active' (+13). Reported deaths remain unchanged at 907.

The UST 10yr yield will start today unchanged at 0.87% although that is a recovery from 0.84% just a few hours ago. And it has subsequently risen to +0.89%. Their 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at +70 bps, their 1-5 curve is steeper at +29 bps, with their 3m-10 year curve also slightly steeper +81 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 0.92%. The China Govt 10 year yield is also firmer by +3 bps at 3.34%. But the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is down -6 bps at 0.86%.

The price of gold has fallen -US$7 this morning from this time yesterday and now at US$1879/oz.

Oil prices are higher today on the weakening greenback and by about +US$1/bbl so it is over US$42/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$45/bbl.

And the Kiwi dollar is firmer today at 69.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are also firmer at 94.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up as well to 58.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is back up to 72. The Chinese yuan is appreciating faster now.

The bitcoin price is going ever higher, up another +1.3% this morning from this time yesterday, now at US$17,804. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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90 Comments

by PocketAces | 19th Nov 20, 7:27am 1605724071

So if Black Friday is a flop, will that mean far, far less landfill, because that is where just about everything bought ends up. Win, win.

by Henry_Tull | 19th Nov 20, 7:46am 1605725205

Context is everything.
We are in "the worst recession in 100 years"

# Its got nothing to do with the plastic bag.

by redcows1 | 19th Nov 20, 7:58am 1605725916

Possibly it has everything to do with the plastic bag and the total waste of resources that only increase gdp nothing else.

by frazz | 19th Nov 20, 8:25am 1605727559

Henry lives in another dimension

by PocketAces | 19th Nov 20, 7:59am 1605725950

Plastic comes in far more forms than bags, most of it in stuff that barely lasts out its guarantee. Waste IS an issue and part of the problem

by ham n eggs | 19th Nov 20, 8:10am 1605726610

the economy is about WASTE maximisation
thats what it is
converting one form of energy into another (unusable) form

by PocketAces | 19th Nov 20, 9:31am 1605731490

The useful lifetime is just a hiccup between drawing it from the ground and tipping it back in another place.

by murray86 | 19th Nov 20, 7:43am 1605725034

So Boeing's 737 Max has been approved to fly, despite the decimation of the airline industry? But COVID has also shown that the very large aircraft just have too much risk associated with them, so the smaller more efficient twins are likely to find fast favour. I note that Boeing's share price has increased by around 30% in the last month, essentially since news started to emerge that it was nearing approval for the Max.

But car sales are slumping, so good for the climate here. But in an amazing bit of extremely shallow thinking I see James Shaw wants to ban the import of petrol and diesel vehicles! I can't believe the Greens haven't thought that one through.

by frazz | 19th Nov 20, 7:55am 1605725731

I just brought a Leaf yesterday - first time I have been excited about an automobile.
During an interview with Stuff on his second-term priorities, Shaw said he’d recommend the policy to new Transport Minister Michael Wood as an “anti-dumping measure” as well as for environmental reasons.
The UK is planning to ban all new combustion engine vehicles by 2035 – though British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to bring this forward to 2030.

by murray86 | 19th Nov 20, 7:58am 1605725894

Great! There are a number of EVs that have peaked my interest, but i am significantly concerned re the issue of batteries and the environmental impact they pose, not to mention as yet the range of EVs is still limited and the infrastructure to support them is not yet in place. This is improving, but if you want to travel any distance at the moment you still have to carefully plan your trip to make sure you don't run out of electrons. Hydrogen fuel will likely be a better option from an environmental perspective, but that is not making much progress if any.

I do not disagree with Shaw re the risk of dumping.

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 8:30am 1605727838

Probably 50% of our vehicles could be replaced with EVs with fairly low ranges. Our family has 2 cars, only 1 needs a range above say 100km.
If NZ is really keen about decreasing C02 emissions we need to get the price of ICE vehicles up to match EVs, either via fuel tax or tariffs. Yes it will cost us all a bit of money, but we seem to have a lot to throw at houses so I think its time we all stopped making excuses and did something positive.

by Ryu | 19th Nov 20, 8:51am 1605729087

We need to get away from the idea that electric cars are the answer. The mining of precious metals causing deep scars on the planet releasing harmful gasses all for lithium batteries is horrifying https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201117-mining-and-anthropocene-lan… Remaining with Petrol is not the answer either. I'd like to see NZ adapt a Netherlands approach to travel by investing in good public transport and cycle lanes. The more we can detach ourselves from cars the better for all. Imagine the impact to your local area if people actually walked/biked distances less than 2 or 3 km.

by murray86 | 19th Nov 20, 8:58am 1605729527

Ryu just a point recycling - I have cycled in NZ and the Netherlands, as well as having flown over both in small aircraft, and I can state with absolute certainty that Holland is great for cycling because it is FLAT! NZ is far from flat even in our cities. Cycling is a long way for being even close to a viable option for all but a very few here.

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 9:01am 1605729674

Thankfully we have ebikes now, so nz hills and headwinds are not an issue.

by muzled | 19th Nov 20, 9:14am 1605730495

I'm not sure most people realise how good ebikes are when it comes to hills and headwinds.

They'll sit on 30kmh into 25-30 knots of wind and go up a 5-6% gradient where even a fit cyclist on an expensive road bike would be doing 20-22kmh.

And that's with pretty much any weight of rider. I followed a lady home along the north west causeway a while back, she was in her work clothes with a handbag and leather jacket on the carrier and absolutely cruising into a small gale.

With an ebike there are no hills, there is no wind.

by Ryu | 19th Nov 20, 9:09am 1605730194

Bikes have come a long way in recent years and the gearing ratios suit any city in NZ. Plus, you get the benefit of improving fitness, taking in those elevated views, and then enjoy the descends. In the Netherlands they actually charge you at every possible car park, even the Jumbo supermarkets are $5 minimum.

by TheTor | 19th Nov 20, 9:17am 1605730655

Hopefully as the price of e-bikes comes down more and more people will embrace cycling. However I fear that the lack of proper cycling infrastructure and the general NZ psyche against cyclists (which is due in part to the lack of infrastructure and not wanting to share roads) will hold us back. With all the emphasis on infrastructure spending post-COVID has there been any mention of funding for cycleways?

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 9:30am 1605731408

One covid recovery cycleway here and allusions to a wider cycleway spend.
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/te-whau-pathway-extended-part-220m-…

by TheTor | 19th Nov 20, 9:39am 1605731942

It's a good start, especially as it has several connection points to local communities along the way and connects to the NW cycleway (one of the busiest). Hopefully there's more to come.

by blobbles | 19th Nov 20, 9:34am 1605731699

It's already happening, I think now more than half of all bikes sold are e-bikes. As an example, biking to work in Wellington this morning on my non-ebike, I counted the number of e-bikes that passed me - 17!

by GV 27 | 19th Nov 20, 9:29am 1605731383

Everyone was fine with lithium mining when were very expensively throwing away phones every few months when a new iWhatever came out, but suddenly people are panicking about lithium despite lithium ion powering most portable consumer electronics since the early 1990s. Suddenly it's considered more harmful? What do people think engine blocks and the internals are made from - they're not exactly made from leprechauns and fairy dust. Current EVs have a lower lifetime environmental cost and this will only improve over time, even more so in a place like NZ with a temperate climate and no salted roads where they will lead longer lives once the service industry develops a bit more.

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 9:32am 1605731540

The amount a lithium in a phone vs and EV is just not in the same ballpark.

Engine blocks are normally made from cast iron or aluminium

by frazz | 19th Nov 20, 10:20am 1605734423

What comes out of the tail pipe of ICE cars daily - pixie dust? What fills up Engine Blocks when running - chocolate Mousse?

by maninavan | 19th Nov 20, 1:54pm 1605747247

Same thing coming out of your mouth. All the real pollutants don't count apparently, guess you can't tax those.
Hydrocarbons go in.

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 11:13am 1605737580

Although one family may own one car for 15 years. They may also own 4x phone changed every 3 years, ebikes, power tools, portable speakers, etc. The car probably still a lot more but maybe closer to the ballpark.

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 11:31am 1605738709

Lets look at a telsa 85kWh battery pack.
Meanwhile my phone has a 2700mAh battery. At 3.7Volts thats 10 Wh. So 10 vs 85000.

I can buy a new phone twice a day for the next 15 years before it has the same impact.

Not the same ballpark

by waymad | 19th Nov 20, 12:37pm 1605742640

40+% of the world supply of Li comes outta two modest holes in WA: Greenbushes and Ravensthorpe. So much for the 'massive scarring'. And there's a Lot more where that came from....

by AKLCrusader | 19th Nov 20, 11:28am 1605738524

We're neither flat nor densely populated like the netherlands, in fact i live 25km from the CBD with numerous hills on the way. Sadly the public transport system takes about as long as biking would, with 3 changes on the way to the city....... only the local school is within 2-3 km, and our kids walked there. But work, shopping, sports, entertainment and NZ holidays are well removed from our local area. And we tow a trailer or a boat at various times, so electric isn't ready for that yet either. Perhaps we should just never go out......

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 11:32am 1605738751

Plenty of people don't live 25km away from work, don't tow a trailer, etc.
Every problem you mentioned is a result of people not paying the true cost of driving. Local shops close down because people drive to cheaper mega outlets, people live 25km from work because they can, etc.

by murray86 | 19th Nov 20, 8:54am 1605729259

Jimbo, the issue is the bottom end of the socio-economic spectrum. Denying people in this group access to personal transport will have dire consequences for society, and the methods you have suggested will have that effect. Increasing costs will not do it, even a few quite wealthy people I know are very frugal in their spending and refuse to go EV because of the cost. So no, alternate fuel vehicles, either EVs or Hydrogen need to be made cheaper, not the other way around.

I have already suggested to my wife that her next car will be an EV, as that is all she really needs. But as yet, being a good Dutchy, she is resistant to spending the money, plus I have yet to find the best one to suit her needs that we can afford.

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 11:05am 1605737148

You mean the people who can afford $700 per week in rent but not an extra $2000 a year when buying a second hand car every 5 years? Allowing people to not pay the true cost of something (in this case the environment) because they might not be afford it seems like a bad option. Imagine if we highly subsidised food to the point where it was much less than the real cost, we would all sorts of food shortages etc.
There are way too many excuses and not enough action.

by youngdumbandbroke | 19th Nov 20, 11:18am 1605737921

NZ renters don't pay the true cost of their accommodation either - they pay far more than they should. An extra $2000 a year when wages are stagnant? What an out of touch comment

by AKLCrusader | 19th Nov 20, 11:31am 1605738667

In about a third of cases, the government subsidises the rent.... you are right about not paying the true cost of the accommodation, but not for the reasons you thought. Yes, $2k out of anybodies pocket is significant after you pay the tax first.

by youngdumbandbroke | 19th Nov 20, 12:34pm 1605742471

The government only subsidises because there's no way they'd get close to affording rent without it.

by Sluggy | 19th Nov 20, 1:23pm 1605745403

The Government subsidises the landlords mortgage / housing ponzi / extreme property ladder climbing.

by rastus1 | 19th Nov 20, 3:44pm 1605753898

The Govt subsidises nothing - they have no money.
They take money from taxpayers and give it to non tax paying landlords.
And we wonder why housing keeps going up?
Why is msm so stupidly silent on this theft ?
Step one Jacinda...cancel the wff landlord subsidy.

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 3:07pm 1605751642

They could for example impose a massive fuel tax and then give that money straight back to everyone in the form of tax cuts or credits. That way you still get the incentive to drive less but unless you are an above average fuel user you end up the same or better off.
Saying we can't charge people for destroying the environment because they can't afford it is a cop out.

by delboy | 19th Nov 20, 10:41am 1605735660

Before we could replace 50% of our vehicles with EV there would need to be billions invested in new electricity generation and upgrades to the power infrastructure.

The UK are planning to build at least two nuclear power stations to cope with the additional electricity load the EVs will put on their national grid.

EVs are great but people tend to forget the massive investments required in power generation and the horrendous environmental damage from the open cast lithium mines.

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 11:07am 1605737267

I'm not so sure, we throw away loads of power every year don't we, or give it away very cheap to industry. If everyone charged over night would there be much more generation required? Could get rid of Tiwai!

by Advisor | 19th Nov 20, 11:20am 1605738036

Yes, our road to prosperity is through more household consumption at the expense of the few industries left in the country.

Let's kill the few remaining industries we have and use all that excess power to charge our cars and drive to open homes all day.

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 2:55pm 1605750918

Industries that rely on cheap off peak power might be at risk. They are basically leaching off the peak power generation all those nasty household consumers have paid to build.

by waymad | 19th Nov 20, 12:30pm 1605742229

Some basic EE001 education needed I fear, JJ, in respect of the electrical grid. " we throw away loads of power every year" - um, no. At every instant of every day, the amount of generation exactly equals the amount of load (= demand including transmission losses). So the notion that some is "Generated' and then 'Thrown away' is simply nonsense on stilts. Less generation = more fuel in the tank, steam in the ground, water in the lakes - ready for the next peak.

Different for FF - 'we throw away loads of power every year' by driving 0.5 km between shops, or to go around the block a few times before garaging because short trips are baleful for ICE, or to indulge in pointless activities like going to matches, skiing, boating, tramping - you may catch the drift here.....Enjoy these activities while you can.....they're On the List.....

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 3:06pm 1605751603

Sure, I understand that energy can't just disappear. But we definitely give it away very cheap, or just let water flow down the hill uninterrupted or wind blow without generating electricity. This is why we are talking about building a hydro battery. With electric cars we can make much better use of that electricity. And it is also possible for those cars to put energy back into the grid at high demand times which is the only times that really matter. We could in theory need less energy production.

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 9:00am 1605729623

hydrogen is terrible for the environment. Aren't the CO2 emmissions better just burning natural gas directly than using it to produce hydrogen via steam reforming?

"This converts to 9.3 kilograms (kg) of CO2 produced per kg of hydrogen production. One kilogram of hydrogen is the energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline, which produces 9.1 kg of CO2 when combusted."https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2020/06/06/estimating-the-carbon-f…

Hydrogen via electrolysis from renewable electricity is never going to be a significant source. 95% of production is via steam reforming

by blobbles | 19th Nov 20, 9:07am 1605730078

Hydrogen would NOT be more environmentally effective because you have to use electrolysis to obtain it. Source to pump the efficiency is very low and most place would either create it via natural gas or burning coal to create the hydrogen - neither a great gain over current gasoline tech. Basically you want to convert the energy to different forms as little as possible. With Hydrogen you go from electricity -> hydrogen (loss of ~45%) -> electricity (loss of 55% not including the original) -> wheel rotation (~5% loss). Electric cars are electricity -> stored electricity (~5-20% loss) -> electric engine -> wheel rotation (~5% loss). Hydrogen ends up with about 30% of the original produced electricity used to drive the vehicle, electric engines are around 70-90% or up to 3x the efficiency. That's a lot less wind mills/solar stations required. The huge range for the first loss in electric cars is due to where you are generating your electricity and line losses - if you are using solar panels on your house, you are up near 90%.

Heavy applications (shipping/aviation/trucking/trains) hydrogen pans out a lot better, particularly with high fuel requirements. However if we end up with really good batteries though (say double to triple the energy density storage), then that will also flip back to electric.

by murray86 | 19th Nov 20, 1:11pm 1605744702

Blobbles and The Person - using hydrogen in an ICE produces only water as a by product, no CO2 or CO. Plus technology is rapidly changing as scientists develop new, better and more efficient methods to produce it. Besides using excess power produced by wind turbines to produce hydrogen through electrolysis will not have any adverse impacts on the ecology beyond their normal presence, so how can they be that bad? And technology is moving fairly, or relatively, quickly now to improve the efficiency of ICEs, electric motors and fuel cells.

by blobbles | 19th Nov 20, 4:34pm 1605756846

You are now making a different comparison, ICE engines vs Hydrogen. YES hydrogen will beat ICE engines from an environmental stand point, but I was showing how they won't beat batteries for consumer use.

"Plus technology is rapidly changing as scientists develop new, better and more efficient methods to produce it.". Until we find a supply of pure hydrogen, it will need to be refined and compressed to be of use in fuel cells. You are battling physics limitations here so "better and more efficient methods" may not be possible. You will also need a whole new infrastructure for high compression storage. None of that is required with electric engines. This is partly why it's more useful for heavy industry - the storage and production facilities can be concentrated.

"Besides using excess power produced by wind turbines to produce hydrogen through electrolysis will not have any adverse impacts on the ecology beyond their normal presence, so how can they be that bad?" That doesn't make sense. If we are still comparing hydrogen and electric cars, that extra energy can be stored in car batteries at a much higher efficiency as previously shown.

Technology is moving quickly, battery technology is moving a lot faster than Hydrogen fuel cell tech though. ICE engines won't get much more efficient as there is too many energy conversions and losses to heat/sound/friction along the way. Hence why from fuel to wheel, the best ICE engines are ~30% efficient (small diesels), with most cars on our roads 20%. And that's before the extraction end of oil is taken into account.

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 5:15pm 1605759322

" using hydrogen in an ICE produces only water as a by product, "

sure, and getting oil out of the ground doesn't release much CO2 either.

You have to look at the emissions of both producing the fuel, and consuming the fuel.

by Henry_Tull | 19th Nov 20, 8:14am 1605726840

Frazzz, nice, new or used?
& if able to say, cash or finance.

I am seeing shortage of new stock, (people grabbing demonstrators, odd colours) dealerships dropping sales headcount (not replacing resignations).

Sales message, do it now or wait until after March 2021.

What were you told?.

by frazz | 19th Nov 20, 8:29am 1605727750

Used 2016 - Cash. Was waiting for some sort of incentive from the Government but gave up. Should pay itself off in 4 years . No pressure - plenty of stock - great knowledge and after sale service.

by muzled | 19th Nov 20, 9:18am 1605730713

What's the range on it frazz?

by frazz | 19th Nov 20, 9:32am 1605731564

Should get 135Kms (30kW)

by muzled | 19th Nov 20, 7:58am 1605725901

Why is it shallow thinking?

Hopefully by 2030 EV's will have a 5-600km range and cost the same as an ICE car does now.

If that's the case I'm not sure why anyone would buy an ICE car.

by ham n eggs | 19th Nov 20, 8:15am 1605726902

Buy a car and save the environment
you cant make this stuff up

by youngdumbandbroke | 19th Nov 20, 9:44am 1605732285

And dump the old petrol one into the landfill while your at it lol

by murray86 | 19th Nov 20, 8:23am 1605727398

By 2030 maybe, but not now. Besides EV batteries have significant environmental impacts and risks, and a very short, around 10 years, life. Plus by comparison EVs are expensive and beyond the reach of the majority of Kiwis, forcing them into the only option being second hand ones that will have big costs down stream. I already know of at least one person who bought a second hand EV and has already been told that the batteries need replacement and are facing a cost of over $10 k. The solutions here are not yet available but the impacts are significant. so to start pushing to ban ICEs without a solution in place is very superficial thinking.

Plus the greens are adamantly opposed to infrastructure - roads spending and development. But very high standard roads are going to be an absolute requirement for efficient vehicles to be viable. So they need to make up their mind, but really i think they want to essentially dis-invent the wheel. There are too many parts of their rhetoric that looks like McGillicuddy Serious to me.

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 8:35am 1605728107

I remember reading that old EV batteries could be used as storage in the national grid as even when they need to be replaced they still have reasonable storage capacity. Not sure I would want to live near a few hundred thousand old lithium batteries but I guess they can find somewhere isolated.
I don't see why we need better roads to move to EVs.

by Lanthanide | 19th Nov 20, 10:28am 1605734892

and a very short, around 10 years, life.

Have you seen Tesla's new "million mile" battery? Which means the battery will last for as long as the car would?

by murray86 | 19th Nov 20, 10:41am 1605735696

When will it be available to fit into current EVs Lanth? Possibly never. It may be a solution but it is not available yet.

by Lanthanide | 19th Nov 20, 11:00am 1605736807

Since we're talking about phasing out petrol cars in 2030 and only allowing EVs to be bought by 2030, what matters is whether it's available by 2030, right?

And it will be.

by Sqaure | 19th Nov 20, 8:33am 1605728023

The Tesla Model 3 Long Range is already at 568km and has a base price of US$47k. I don't think we'll have to wait until 2030.

by dmitri | 19th Nov 20, 9:29am 1605731370

You've put it in USD so it looks smaller, right?

by Sqaure | 19th Nov 20, 9:51am 1605732673

Haha, you got me. I was hoping nobody on this website, of all places, would understand exchange rates. Joking aside, the price of li-ion automotive packs has dropped by more than 90% in the last 10 years so I think my point still stands. The tech is here, the price just has to drop - and I don't think it will take 10 years.

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 9:56am 1605732991

prices drops have tailed off in the last few years though. The tech isn't here, for continued price drops we need continued new technology development. Costs don't just drop over time on their own. As the easy wins are behind us, it gets harder and harder to extract more. I doubt we will see 90% drop in the next ten years unless there is a breakthrough in alternative battery chemistries.

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 9:39am 1605731940

Over on telsa.com they show a retail price of NZ$92,900. Yes i think we will have to wait. You can't save the environment with 'hopefully'

by KH | 19th Nov 20, 9:04am 1605729843

Boeing 737Max. No big aircraft flies like a glider, but the Max is the most like a brick.
737s were once a balanced aircraft. Then new engines (Max) were too close to the ground. Solution was to put them on pylons forward of the wing.
Result is too heavy forward - so the Max always wants to point down. The thing wants to nose dive. All the time.
The only solution, but also the stupid solution, was to have the computers always compensating for that. Which Boeing screwed up.
So the Max is always fighting itself. Always will be.
Don't ever get in one. Best place for the Max is landfill.
(watch - soon there will be a name change - to keep you from knowing what you are booking)

by murray86 | 19th Nov 20, 10:52am 1605736326

Interesting points i was not aware of KH. An aerodynamic issue with aircraft is that the mainplanes produce an aerodynamic pitching moment which is nose down. This is countered by the horizontal tail creating a down force to counter that pitching moment across the range of speeds and configurations of the wing. Airlines like to load their planes from the back forward, because this reduces the amount of force/power required from the horizontal stabiliser, and reduces trim drag. Normally it is hard to load an aircraft to the forward C of G limit, which is countered by the total power of the horizontal stabiliser, but if Boeing are building an aircraft that is naturally forward loaded, then that will make it harder for operators to make them efficient. Shifting the wing position on the fuselage will do it though. Just for those who do know; loading an aircraft to the aft C of G limit makes the aircraft pitch controls more sensitive, and going behind that limit can make the aircraft unstable.

by Antz | 19th Nov 20, 7:44am 1605725070

There'll be no discounting in my retail shop for Black Friday this year. Why discount when stock is short and demand is still high?

by PocketAces | 19th Nov 20, 8:00am 1605726048

Black Friday is completely meaningless here, I don't even know why it exists here

by Flying high | 19th Nov 20, 8:08am 1605726499

Agreed... Same for Halloween

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 9:10am 1605730219

Halloween? how is that different to any other european christian traditions? Shall we get rid of christmas too?

by Lanthanide | 19th Nov 20, 11:02am 1605736948

Because it's not a european christian tradition, but an American one?

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 11:38am 1605739103

Oh really? Some please let the english know

"In England, from the medieval period, up until the 1930s, people practiced the Christian custom of souling on Halloween, which involved groups of soulers, both Protestant and Catholic, going from parish to parish, begging the rich for soul cakes, in exchange for praying for the souls of the givers and their friend"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween#History

by Lanthanide | 19th Nov 20, 12:06pm 1605740763

The rising popularity of Guy Fawkes Night (5 November) from 1605 onward, saw many Halloween traditions appropriated by that holiday instead, and Halloween's popularity waned in Britain, with the noteworthy exception of Scotland. There and in Ireland, they had been celebrating Samhain and Halloween since at least the early Middle Ages, and the Scottish kirk took a more pragmatic approach to Halloween, seeing it as important to the life cycle and rites of passage of communities and thus ensuring its survival in the country.[115]

It was not until mass Irish and Scottish immigration in the 19th century that Halloween became a major holiday in America,[121] confined to the immigrant communities during the mid-19th century. It was gradually assimilated into mainstream society and was celebrated coast to coast by people of all social, racial, and religious backgrounds by the first decade of the 20th century.

So yeah, I really meant 'British' as opposed to 'European'. Modern halloween has never really been celebrated in England, and thus in New Zealand and Australia has never really been celebrated.

Modern christmas has always been celebrated in the UK. So there's your difference, since you asked.

by The Person | 19th Nov 20, 5:17pm 1605759459

"Modern halloween has never really been celebrated in England"

Try telling that to the kids that would trick or treat on our street in the UK. Halloween is the busiest night for crime in the UK according to the police, that's when someone broke into my flat and stole my laptop

by northman46 | 19th Nov 20, 9:14am 1605730462

If we're cancelling events, can we start with Guy Fawkes night?

by GV 27 | 19th Nov 20, 8:14am 1605726863

By 'completely meaningless' you mean a brief period where our retail goods drop down to the same regular price as they're sold for in other markets, often by the same chains?

by Tradersam | 19th Nov 20, 7:49am 1605725350

PM’s maybe on a pull back but the fundamentals remain the same,

by Flying high | 19th Nov 20, 8:10am 1605726650

USA and Canada... Property is positively pumping

by two otherguys | 19th Nov 20, 8:35am 1605728139

Talkback radio last night

A caller rings in, says he is an active participant in the investment end of the property market

Says he personally knows of 4 people who own portfolios of 200 houses each in the AKL area

by JimboJones | 19th Nov 20, 8:39am 1605728379

The super rich who wont pay a cent of tax on most of their earnings because that is somehow fair. Go NZ!

by muzled | 19th Nov 20, 9:23am 1605731027

I find that quite bizarre, what is their end goal? To own 400 houses, 800 houses, 1000 houses?

At what stage are they planning on sitting back and enjoying life?

I'd have thought if you had 4 houses you'd be living quite comfortably off the rental income.

I guess it's an ego trip for the types that are driven to own more than one or two in the first place.

by Lanthanide | 19th Nov 20, 12:08pm 1605740905

When owning 200 houses, they almost certainly are paying other people to manage them.

So it's not very different than being the owner of any large company with lots of assets. Owners of large companies with lots of assets would tend to 'sit back and enjoy life' more than most, I would suggest.

by PocketAces | 19th Nov 20, 12:10pm 1605741024

More like farming on a corporate scale, because that is pretty much what it is, it's just it's "people farming". Should not even be a thing imho

by stuart786786 | 19th Nov 20, 9:21am 1605730894

House sold last year for 720000 sold recently for 1096000 that is approx 50% more and is not suitable for rebuilt

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/estimate/47-andrew-road-howick-auckland-manuk…

by richard1965 | 19th Nov 20, 9:42am 1605732149

Housing market is rising on a weekly basis, if not on daily basis and with RBNZ and governmen not acting , it may not be long when 1.5 million to 2 million is average and many FHB will have to even stop of hoping a house in Auckland unless are ready to a million plus for pigeon holes.

Cartel of RE Agents are successful each week by raising the price and with FOMO at peak are getting away. It is not free market but RBNZ and Government supported and promoted ponzi.

Stuart 50% rise since last year is not abnormal and last year everyone was talking about high house price.

by two otherguys | 19th Nov 20, 9:58am 1605733085

Dated 1970's do-up on 408 square metres
Awkward positioning on the property
Recent in-fill at the rear - see Barfoot's images
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/manukau-city/howick/hous…

by Audaxes | 19th Nov 20, 10:27am 1605734860

'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia
Will NZ get the 'with us or against us' call from across the ditch?

by youngdumbandbroke | 19th Nov 20, 9:47am 1605732443

IMO I think this is only the beginning of picking sides

by Audaxes | 19th Nov 20, 11:05am 1605737116

When it comes to ownership of its home nation’s sovereign bonds, the Fed at present trails many of its central bank counterparts -- such as the Bank of Japan and even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand -- by a wide margin.Image and Link

Does too much government crowd out the private sector?