Weekend briefing: China strikes at Aussie exports again

COVID twists US holiday shopping severely; Chinese industrial profits rise; China hits Aussie wine with steep tariffs; EU gloomy; Wall Street at record high; UST 10y at 0.84%; oil up and gold down; NZ$1 = 70.2 USc; TWI-5 = 72.7

28th Nov 20, 7:49am by David Chaston

Castle Point lighthouse, Wairarapa coast

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news Australian wine is the latest target in China's determination to punish them for resisting Beijing's worldview.

But first in the US, there are reports that some shopping malls are deserted as the pandemic pushes retail online, even faster. Amazon is reported to be trying to hire more workers at the rate of about +3000 per day, and courier deliver companies are struggling to find the drivers to respond to this unprecedented shift. Amazon alone now has more than 1.2 mln employees and has added +427,000 this year alone.

In Canada, redundant oil drillers are discovering a new gig - drilling for hot water. Such new geothermal wells can produce enough energy for more than 3000 homes.

In China, industrial profits in October for their major companies, including their SOEs, has now recovered back to year-ago levels. In fact, they were +0.7% higher than for October 2019 and rose at their fastest pace in nine years.

Meanwhile, China is tightening its pressure on Australia, slapping import duties of between 107% to 212% for Aussie wine and intensifying trade tensions between the two countries.

And don't forget, off the Chinese coast a fleet of 82 ships carrying blacklisted Australian coal worth more than NZ$1.2 bln is held up as Beijing tries to coerce Canberra into kowtowing to its policy positions.

Investment bank analysts at Citibank say that if iron ore were to be drawn into the trade stoush, Australia could lose up to -20% of their exports worth more than AU$76 bln in a year, hit their nominal GDP by -3.8% and take -16c off the value of their currency. It seems an unlikely scenario and most other analysts don't see anything like this actually happening. But that does seem to be the downside risk of standing up to China.

In the EU, they are suffering a new round of pessimism, with sharp falls in both consumer and now business sentiment. Being unable to shake the pandemic as the holiday season approaches is knocking the stuffing out of them, and having to isolate indoors in winter is a grim prospect.

Back in Australia, their Federal Court has declared that insurer Youi, infamous in NZ, breached its duty of utmost good faith under the Insurance Contracts Act in its handling of a building and contents insurance claim lodged by a policyholder. Following a severe hailstorm in Broken Hill in November 2016, the policyholder made a claim to Youi in January 2017 for damage to their property. Youi took close to two years to settle the claim and repairs were not completed until November 2018. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission commenced proceedings against Youi in April.

Wall Street is back trading today, although volumes are low. The S&P500 is up a modest +0.2% and they are heading for a weekly gain of +2.3% and ending at a record high level. Overnight, European markets were up about +0.4%. Yesterday Tokyo also closed up +0.4%, Hong Kong was up +0.3%, but Shanghai ended recovering strongly, up +1.1%. That means for the week, Tokyo was up a massive +4.4%, Hong Kong was up +1.7%, and Shanghai was up +0.9%. The ASX200 ended yesterday down -0.5% for a weekly gain of +0.9%, while the NZX50 Capital Index was up +0.3% yesterday for a weekly gain of +1.6%. Globally, equities of developed and emerging markets are up more than +13% as we close in on the end of November. The NZX50 Capital index is headed for only a +4.5% gain for the month however.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 61,289,000 and a +647,000 rise overnight. It is still very grim in Russia, the UK, and Italy with great stress on their hospital systems. It does seem to be easing in Belgium, France and Spain. The number of British cases (+18,000 yesterday) is about to exceed the number in Spain (+12,000 yesterday). Global deaths reported now exceed 1,438,000 and up +12,000 from yesterday.

The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +94,000 overnight to 13,267,000 and at a slightly moderated pace of infection. But reporting there will be inhibited for a few days by their holiday weekend. The US remains the global epicenter of the virus and the consequence of a very bad public health response. The number of active cases is surging at 5,145,000 and that level is up +53,000 in one day, so many more new cases more than recoveries. Hospitalisations are now approaching 100,000. Their death total now exceeds 270,000. The US now has a COVID death rate that now exceeds Brazil, at 813/mln and is approaching the Argentine level.

In Australia, they are not getting any major resurgence. There have now been 27,874 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is just +7 more cases overnight. Now 78 of their cases are 'active' (-6). Reported deaths remain unchanged at 907.

The UST 10yr yield will start today down -4 bps at 0.84%. Their 2-10 rate curve is flatter at +69 bps, their 1-5 curve is also flatter at +27 bps, with their 3m-10 year curve faller too at just under +77 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 0.91%. The China Govt 10 year yield is up +1 bp and now at 3.34%, while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is down -1 bp at 0.89%.

The price of gold is has fallen again and down -US$24 today to US$1785/oz. A week ago it was at US$1875 so since then it has declined by -4.8%.

Oil prices are marginally firmer today, and are back at just under US$45.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$48/bbl. OPEC and Russia are apparently close to agreeing to keep oil production cuts for another two to three months, a move they hope will keep markets tight even as prices start to recover.

And the Kiwi dollar has stayed high, rising slightly to 70.2 USc this morning. That is a full +1c higher than this time last week. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 95.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at 58.8 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 will start today at 72.7. We were last at this level in March 2019.

The bitcoin price has recovered slightly overnight after flirting with a record high in the past two days. But is now at just US$16,798 and although it is up +1.5% since this time yesterday, a week ago it was US$18,613 so the weekly loss is -US$1815 or -9.8%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

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65 Comments

by Fritz | 28th Nov 20, 8:08am 1606504109

Cheap Aussie wine soon?

by Andrewj | 28th Nov 20, 8:21am 1606504874

The French turning a lot of their wine into hand santitizer this year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/french-winemakers-to-turn…

by Squishy | 28th Nov 20, 8:23am 1606505027

Bet ScoMo and his government wishes they'd tried to diversify away from being reliant on China instead of doubling down. We should take this as fair warning as well about New Zealands reliance on China.

by keithwoodford | 28th Nov 20, 2:02pm 1606525350

Squishy
It was China that found Australia in relation to export fo Australia products rather than the other way around. Australia is largely an exporter of commodities. Australian commodity exporters did not target China or any other country in relation to commodity exports. That is not how commodity trade works. Rather, Australia hung out its shingle and then buyers came. With commodities, you don't normally choose your buyers and you don't have easy choices about diversification.
KeithW

by Squishy | 29th Nov 20, 5:56am 1606582571

Hi Keith. Yeah, point taken but the Australian government has been pro-mining (e.g. in not charging additional taxes on mining) hoping it would buoy their economy so this is backfiring to some extent. In that way Australia has a lot of eggs in this basket because they've not diversified.

I was listening to Tony Battaglene (CEO of Wine and Grape Australia) and he indicated that China was about 30% of their market but he was very optimistic about being able to diversify away from China with government assistance also stating that at the top end of the market they'd probably be OK.

by keithwoodford | 29th Nov 20, 12:03pm 1606604625

Squishy,
Aha! I note the phrase 'with government assistance'.
Australia has greater reliance on China for wine than does NZ, with this reflecting that China is largely a red wine market (a strength of Australia) whereas NZ is mainly a white wine producer.
China has been greatly expanding its own grape growing areas (for wine) and some of their wines (but not others) are OK.
KeithW

by two otherguys | 28th Nov 20, 8:40am 1606506009

Reason given by China for 200% tarrifs on AU wine is subsidies. That's exactly what MP Carmel Sepuloni has just announced. Huge labour subsidies for the wine industry. Transport, Accommodation, 6 weeks bonus, etc

by Foxglove. | 28th Nov 20, 8:37am 1606505837

subsidies are self destructive. create their own vortex and eventually drag all down the plug hole with them. still CV19 has created globally a massive mass of subsidies previously unimaginable. guess if you can’t beat em join em then?

by Flying high | 28th Nov 20, 9:09am 1606507789

My daughter is out the back enthusiastically wearing her gumboots and with the weedeater in hand right now before she mows the grass...several weeks ago I had to pay the incentive of a good cash rate to get her motivated. Unfortunately she is not a natural self starter but this definitely works for her and helps me out too. In general I am against incentives in the economy but every rule needs an exception.

by Flying high | 28th Nov 20, 8:50am 1606506610

The incentives that have been offered could be a good kick start to more nzers moving to rural regions and liking it. There will be some who take to it and love it which will be very good for the country as a whole and for those individuals and their families.

by redcows1 | 28th Nov 20, 10:44am 1606513445

But why do I have to pay the incentive as a tax payer?

by Hook | 28th Nov 20, 11:13am 1606515182

Any incentive paid by the "taxpayer" will be recouped many times over by an increased tax take. Remember, if they're unemployed you're already subsidising them anyway. It's a good idea, and may help rural communities and businesses with a shot in the arm they desperately need. The RSE costs might also incentivise employers to up their offers to Kiwi's even if only temporarily. $6k would be better spent on Kiwi workers than MIQ facilities and a paid holiday spent in them imo.I'd be surprised if employers aren't doing the maths as we speak.

by Foxglove. | 28th Nov 20, 11:19am 1606515577

RC we all now have no hope of accountability for the taxes we pay and even more so for the local rates we pay. Them wot know best carry on regardless, of us the public and any respect for the public purse which we create apparently solely for their convenience. Bureaucracy in NZ has become a multi headed monster that has spawned many dead heads, hands and ends at all points of the compass.

by Flying high | 28th Nov 20, 12:09pm 1606518564

I know this sounds negative but hell yes we are a pathetic bunch far removed from the english and other pioneers and the first immigrant Maori. Brand new immigrants often take advantage of the malaise and their children are also doing very well. We have pretty much lost our will to win and self belief so need financial support and comfort. At least the hort incentive has a fixed sum and time frame.

by redcows1 | 28th Nov 20, 12:30pm 1606519829

So how do you feel about the governor's of early NZ legislating against Maori here in the Eastern Bay Of Plenty because the new immigrants complained bitterly over Maori dominance of trade in agricultural products because they had a vertically integrated supply chain from Ebop to Auckland.

by Ezy | 28th Nov 20, 1:04pm 1606521869

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" - Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum

Austerity can be a very good thing, as long as you still have food, shelter and community. Our cult like avoidance of discomfort at all costs as a society is the cancer that will have us all "riding camels" again.

by PocketAces | 28th Nov 20, 2:14pm 1606526094

I'll bet no-one moaned about riding camels, back when

by Hook | 28th Nov 20, 3:08pm 1606529311

When we're all walking no one will moan - it's called equality (the current race we're in and no doubt the end result, walking that is)

by Flying high | 28th Nov 20, 6:48pm 1606542501

A bit boring, I was expecting either a sustainable mode of transport or futuristic one but got neither

by Hook | 28th Nov 20, 6:55pm 1606542916

Nothing more sustainable than using your feet FH

by Flying high | 28th Nov 20, 8:38pm 1606549119

... pushing a wheelbarrow eh H ;)

by Uninterested | 28th Nov 20, 8:29am 1606505388

Ahhh, Castle Point. No better place to go when there is a huge sou-east swell rolling in...

by linklater01 | 28th Nov 20, 7:15pm 1606544101

Uninterested,

Indeed, an interesting place, but you can't get a crayfish at the hotel. Why?

by Andrewj | 28th Nov 20, 8:32am 1606505543

Been checking about for info on livestock prices, lots of concern in the community and it's this uncertainty thats getting to people, the big unknowns.

Last year we got most of our lambs away for the Christmas and Easter markets before Covid-19 kicked in, and politicians went full retard all over the West. This year lockdowns are coming in before our main sales period and that I think is what's scaring farmers, that and rumors of ships bypassing the country and falling schedules.
Markets are delicate and we would not be happy with China doing to us what they are doing to Australia.
Already our dollar has knocked returns and we never get an advantage from a high dollar, we do get higher costs when it falls.

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6N&p=d1

Dairy news out of the USA.

'US. milk output totaled 18.6 billion pounds last month, up 2.3% from October 2019, and on par with the strong year-over-year gain reported in September. Dairy producers continue to achieve impressive advances in milk production per cow, with milk yields up 1.9% from a year ago. Since July, U.S. milk output per cow has grown at the fastest rate since early 2017. This suggests that the primary drivers are investments in better facilities and accelerating progress in genetics and breeding technologies, rather than more temporary factors like favorable weather. Given the long-term impact of these practices, the industry should expect that milk yields will continue to outpace the prior year by a wide margin unless they are held down by supply management programs in the spring.
The dairy herd is growing too. According to USDA’s latest estimates, dairy producers added 15,000 cows in September and another 14,000 in October. The milk-cow herd averaged 9.39 million head last month, which is 62,000 head larger than it was in October 2019. The dairy herd hasn’t been this big since July 2018. Persistently low slaughter volumes suggest that the herd is getting larger by the day.
Foreign milk production is also climbing. Collections in Europe and the United Kingdom topped the prior year by a respectable 1.4% in September. New Zealand reported a 1.7% increase in September, while Aussie output jumped 2%. Argentine milk output climbed 3.6% in September. In October, milk production in Mexico, our top export market, advanced 1.6%.
If the U.S. dairy industry is going to expand at this rate, we will need to step up exports, but that will be difficult with our competitors growing too. The weak dollar and relatively low dairy product prices should help, but the industry continues to cede ground on the policy front. '

by Osty123 | 28th Nov 20, 8:42am 1606506176

Signed up 30% of my lambs at 3 bucks yesterday. 25% drop on last year but I don't want to be in the poop if last year repeats. Have had a great November for growth in the south. Wool passed in at 1.30 after useless auction system decide to have a break for to weeks when the price had finally increased!???? CPW are a bunch of idiots.

by Andrewj | 28th Nov 20, 9:03am 1606507427

Same here, I have grass blowing in the wind, you can see the tracks where the cattle have been walking. The wool industry back in crisis, I remember an MP who's name escapes me, telling us that if he had to design a system to sell a product at the lowest possible price, a system that gave all the control to buyers, he would copy the wool industry (Lockwood Smith).

I take it thats $3 liveweight, we are still getting over $7 a kg in the works here a 17kg lamb = $110 ( $7.17 a kg). Lots of Ryal Bush trucks on the roads around here this spring, looked like steers on board.

by profile | 28th Nov 20, 9:31am 1606509114

Weather pattern may be around for a while yet.
"La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. International climate models suggest it is likely to continue to at least February 2021."
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

by two otherguys | 28th Nov 20, 9:19am 1606508341

Wool passed in at $1.30
Aw Shucks, the NZ Wool board was paying $6.50 while building its stockpile
Where is the NZ Wool Board today

by two otherguys | 28th Nov 20, 8:59am 1606507186

How soon we forget
1980's China was the largest buyer of NZ & AU wool clip. Oil shocks made synthetics more economic. China turned the wool tap off overnight. NZ & AU ended up with wool stockpiles that took 20 years to dispose of. History is gone. Try researching that.

by Andrewj | 28th Nov 20, 9:10am 1606507815

I was in India early 90's, in the papers was talk of Chinese sythetics destroying India's textile industry, they were losing jobs and money, it was a really big deal for them. Not somethging you read in the papers here.

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/textile-sector-india-china-u…

How China built a 150 billion lead over indian textiles.

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/how-china-built-150-billion-lead-over-i…

by Ezy | 28th Nov 20, 1:06pm 1606522018

Love your on the ground updates AndrewJ. A good dose of concrete reality in a economic hall of smoke and mirrors.

by waymad | 28th Nov 20, 5:05pm 1606536357

Seconded.

by profile | 28th Nov 20, 9:16am 1606508189

Median age of UK Covid related deaths, like Oz, is higher than average life expectancy. Sad, but is it really in the grim department?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarr…

by Ezy | 28th Nov 20, 1:10pm 1606522252

Oi, quiet down with your inconvenient truths

by PocketAces | 28th Nov 20, 2:19pm 1606526340

Because this will always be preferable? Sheesh. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-19/us-surpasses-250000-coronavirus-…

by donny11 | 28th Nov 20, 3:10pm 1606529426

I mean I certainly don't think we should be imprisoning children over it. But what do i know.
At this point we might as well hold a steady course as the vaccines should are around the corner.

by Audaxes | 28th Nov 20, 9:42am 1606509756

Meanwhile, China is tightening its pressure on Australia, slapping import duties of between 107% to 212% for Aussie wine and intensifying trade tensions between the two countries.

Commentary: Australia should make independent, sensible choices on China ties

by keithwoodford | 28th Nov 20, 11:35am 1606516547

Audaxes,
The commentary you refer to is important. It is of course the Chinese perspective. Kiwis can either agree or disagree with that perspective, but it makes sense to at least understand that perspective and thereby understand how Australia dug a hole for itself.
KeithW

by dafarmer | 28th Nov 20, 9:42am 1606509765

Question.
If China does not trade with Australia for coal and Iron Ore, where are they going to source the volumes the require?
Is it of the same quality?
Surely Australia will just fill the demand that is created in other markets as China takes up supply from elsewhere.
Is it not some mad Mexican stand off?
On Wool.
We got what we voted for.
People are investing serous time and their own money into making a difference.
The grower Co-Op and owned companies are working hard to get value back to farmers.
Primary Wool Co-Op and WONZ both had AGMs this week they both had great messages on work they are doing.
It is going to be a slow burn but the customer is starting to ask for the NZs best natural fibre when buying carpet now, and large hosing developers are now using wool in their new homes. Head offices for Corporates are now making beginning to make a sustainable choice and ordering custom made wool carpets.
Got to question why this was not happening already!
The wool price has a long way to come back from, but I feel change.
But only wool farmers will be truly motivated to drive the change.

by keithwoodford | 29th Nov 20, 12:05pm 1606604750

dafarmer,
The current situation with wool is primarily due to the impacts of synthetic technology, combined with a failure of the wool value-chain to respond to that. The Chinese stopped buying wool - or greatly reduced their buying - because there was no longer any money in that business. It had nothing to do with politics; it was a simple response to failure within the wool value-chain.
KeithW

by keithwoodford | 28th Nov 20, 11:56am 1606517798

dafarmer,
China is showing its displeasure with Australia by choosing products that do not threaten the Chinese economy. Iron ore will be a long way down the list becase of its importance and the challenge of finding alternative sources.
Should NZ fail to manage tensions wth China then it is reasonable to assume that Chna will make its message felt in a parallel manner. Beef and kiwifruit would be likely to be reasonably high on the list. There are alternative soruces for beef, and NZ kiwifruit is not central to the Chinese economy - but Chinese sales of SunGold kiwifruit are important to us. Timber might also come into that category. Conversely, China has no alternative source for whole milk powder (WMP). That WMP trade can be volatile for other reasons, but I would not expect it to be targetted for political reasons.
If we manage the tensions - by disagreeing with China, if necessary firmly, but doing so politely - then those issues will stay in the hypothetical category. But once China senses our attitude is one of superiority leading to loss of face, then it all changes.
KeithW

by blobbles | 28th Nov 20, 4:50pm 1606535420

Australia exports coal and iron ore to China. China converts this to steel.

Why doesn't Australia just run it's own highly automated steel mills so it deals less with the labour cost issue, that's an even better question? Oh, because they must export their pollution so they look better... well, power it with renewables, it's not like Aus is lacking in sunshine. Or if that's too hard, partner with a neighbouring country who, hypothetically, is about to lose an aluminium smelter which runs on renewables and worry less about trading with another country who doesn't share your values.

It's all too hard though right, getting sick of pollies not looking for innovative solutions...

by Hook | 28th Nov 20, 6:34pm 1606541695

Unless you've been living under a rock for the last 15 years you might have noticed NZs only steel mill is already Australian owned. The Asia Pacific region can't compete with Chinese steel mills. Bluescope is reducing operations in NZ due to cost pressures.
BTW - developers (the users of steel) don't give a rats @rse about "values" when it comes to cost and China is the cheapest supplier around.

by blobbles | 28th Nov 20, 8:37pm 1606549066

Why is it cheaper when it comes from China? Labour! So automate the steel mill. Others have done it and make specialised steel, not bog standard: https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a27043/steel…

If it's still cheaper, then it's something else - possibly subsidies in one form or another. If that's the case, create your own subsidies. It's been known for a while China doesn't exactly play by the rule book when it comes to "fair trade". Tit for tat.

Creating high value products out of your natural resources is pretty much the only way the West can grow. A good example in NZ is Fonterror vs A2. With your sort of thinking, it is absolutely not surprising that higher value product barely get produced in Aus/NZ. It get's put in the "too hard" basket by consecutive governments. Thus productivity drops and we all suffer. The more places like NZ and Aus keep trying to be bulk, low cost producers of primary products, the more we will see our economic prospects, environment and socio economic outcomes degrade.

by MLSmith1 | 29th Nov 20, 1:03pm 1606608198

Large part of China’s strategic plan is to become less reliant on exports.. concentrating on urbanisation of their people and creating employment for citizens is paramount.
They maintain supply of raw materials to do this and are subsidising industry to maintain production. There is a reason why they hold large debt and currency reserves.

by Hook | 29th Nov 20, 3:10pm 1606615806

blobbles I wouldn't compare Fonterra with A2 personally. Fonterra had the opportunity to partner with A2 but turned it's back on them. As it did with Organic milk. A2 has a patented product (challenged recently) that gave it a substantial foothold in China and Asia. Fonterra is a commodity producer because it has to be - it's plants are set up to process maximum volume. A2 didn't "create" anything other than a clever marketing position.

by blobbles | 29th Nov 20, 6:03pm 1606626204

So A2 didn't patent it's product/marketing and it's milk isn't considered a premium product? Fonterra tries to volume produce everywhere and make idiotic mistakes in the process (it's hapless foray's into China/South America). A2 absolutely created something, you may as well say Xero didn't create anything because accounting already existed, therefore their business should be ignored.

It's like you are saying "don't compare 2 products, one that is a premium/high value one and one that isn't, when talking about higher value commodities". So WTF are we suppose to compare?? Meanwhile A2 milk pays 17c per kg more than Fonterra, all in the farmers back pocket...

When will people learn that the further we try to be volume producers as such a small country, the worse off we will be. We will NEVER compete long term with the big boys if we stoop to their lower level products. The only advantage we will have is via niche and/or higher value products. It's the only thing NZ should be doing, in almost every industry. See anything by Paul Callaghan.

by keithwoodford | 29th Nov 20, 9:20pm 1606638049

It's true that the A2 premiums to farmers are relatively small but that is because well over 90 percent of the premiums stay with the A2 Milk Company togethr with a moderate proportion going to Synlait as the processor. If Fonterra had gone with A2 from the outset - they held a 50 percent share in a key patent and there was nothign to stop them doing so - then all the profits could have gone to the farmers.
KeithW

by Flying high | 29th Nov 20, 10:43pm 1606643015

Would it be fair to say that dairy farm incomes would be much higher as a result if fonterra "had gone with A2"
I would dare say that dairy farm prices would have risen as well, maybe even more conversions would have taken place.

by Pusheen | 30th Nov 20, 12:41am 1606650090

China eyes & stability is for OZ iron ore, the highest grade is for military needs, the rest is to flood the world with lower quality productions/grade. The play book from China part is always, cheap and plenty of money to sway the production ownership. I've read the book of how modern China opted in more rigorous way of how the Jews past in the commercial Banking sectors, Financiers - interesting reads. But you're right about developers, some passes the shive but some being caught by the authority eg. NZ Steel & Tubes (2018). You've stating the obvious how the cheap money can buy it's way up, but honestly your perception will change once those lower quality grade, not claimed as to be sipping into your houses or the next airplane ride.

by Taxbreak | 28th Nov 20, 11:58am 1606517903

Interesting take from the Sydney Morning Herald on CCP politics and China's attempts to blackmail Australia on trade:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-s-seinfeld-moment-with-australia-…

by Hook | 28th Nov 20, 12:23pm 1606519384

That article, and the attitude it unreservedly displays, is EXACTLY the reason why China has taken the actions it has. It's redolent of a poodle pissing in a Mastiffs bowl and then squealing when the Mastiff picks it up by the head. Aussie would do well to work out where it's interests are best served. It (and NZ) banned Huawei on the 5G spectrum build despite there being no evidence of Chinese Govt collusion. Ridiculous, given Huawei already supply 4G infrastructure to both countries

by General HubHub | 28th Nov 20, 5:32pm 1606537953

“... despite there being no evidence of Chinese Govt collusion.”
What utter nonsense, hook. All Chinese business IS the Chinese government...
you don’t half make stuff up, do you?

by Hook | 28th Nov 20, 6:42pm 1606542126

And you totally make unsubstantiated claims. Show me the evidence regarding Huawei's "collusion"?? Besides what I said in the rest of the post is just as accurate - Huawei already provides infrastructure for 4G, what's the difference with 5G, and why should they be rejected? Our GCSB couldn't find any hard evidence so what makes you any more informed?

by NZChinese | 28th Nov 20, 3:03pm 1606528997

We say "kill the chicken to show the monkey (杀鸡给猴看)” in Chinese. i.e. making an example out of someone to frighten others. To China, Australia and NZ are the easier ones to poke on the geopolitical chessboard. I think most people including ScoMo, know that.

IMO, re International trading with China, the bottom line is always down to the food supply. The biggest job for CCP (and they have done well since 1978) is to feed the Chinese people. Through Chinese history, empires often fell due to famines. Today's reality is China cannot produce enough food domestically to feed 1.4 billion Chinese. As long as you are part of the dinner table, China will not cut you off; it's simply because they cannot afford to do so. I think most people, including ScoMo also know that.

by Foxglove. | 28th Nov 20, 3:10pm 1606529454

Yes fair comment and agree that most people know what you proclaim including ScoMo, but it was good thinking to say that twice just in case.

by keithwoodford | 29th Nov 20, 12:17pm 1606605462

NZChinese
China can feed itself based on a plant-based diet, but cannot do so with a diet that has considerable animal-based components.
Therefore, in relation to China, the opportunities will continue to relate in the main to animal-based products.
The two key NZ-sourced products that China will struggle to source from elsewhere are whole milk powder and mutton.
KeithW

by Foxglove. | 29th Nov 20, 1:25pm 1606609551

Mutton! Therein lies some history. In 1882, SS Dunedin carried three times more more mutton than lamb. Thus commenced a lucrative new trade supplementing the initial sheep farming for wool export. It was no frills. Protein for the hoi polloi, no great quality but safe enough to boot. Hence the NZ freezing industry grew and grew. These factories were called freezing works and that nicely illustrates the philosophy and emphasis on processing, profitability based on throughput that many years on eventually became the great undoing. And so now China needs the same? Who says history never repeats.

by keithwoodford | 29th Nov 20, 4:10pm 1606619451

The ratio of lamb to muttion is relatively fixed by nature. Not totally, but very much so. Both mutton and lamb can be either chilled or frozen, and both can be branded or non-branded. Given the seasonality of lambing, there are big challenges with chilled lamb and chilled mutton because the supply is seasonal but the demand is largely non-seasonal. So there is still a strong argument for frozen product. NZ frozen mutton is largely sold to North China, thawed, further processed and typically frozen again. The sheep industry would be largely stuffed without China. We would need to focus on trying to develop markets in places like Saudi Arabia and Iran. We used to sell sheep meat to Iran but then politics got in the way.
KeithW

by Foxglove. | 29th Nov 20, 4:31pm 1606620682

The formative days of ANZCO under the direction of Graeme Harrison is another good example of how you cannot afford to overlook the economical benefits of supplying basic commodity to where it fits. I am years out of date now but mutton wasn’t then a contender for chilled supply. Stock would need at least a double wash creating high ph and reduced shelf life. The final product was not up to it for H & R or ready retail. Still imagine some cuts, racks, bless loins could get across the line maybe.

by keithwoodford | 29th Nov 20, 9:23pm 1606638236

I agree that Graeme Harrison go the big things right in a very difficult industry.
Graeme also saw the potential for beef in China before some others saw what was going to happen.
KeithW

by Henry_Tull | 28th Nov 20, 4:39pm 1606534793

Does anyone look at the big picture.
- Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is having a go..

That is the broad thrust. If correct, the vaccine catch-up rally for unloved commodity stocks over the last three weeks is just an "amuse bouche" before the supercycle gets going in earnest. The Bloomberg commodity index has fallen 60 per cent since its last hurrah in 2011. In synthetic terms, it is back to half-century lows.

Goldman Sachs says there is no political appetite for the contractionary debt-reduction policies seen after the global financial crisis: whether the Tea party and the fiscal "sequester" in the US; or Osbornian austerity in the UK; or the draconian Schauble cuts of Europe's Lost Decade.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/revenge-of-the-old-economy-is-t…

The bull case is that central banks will accommodate this fiscal expansion much as they did 50 years ago (bar Germany's Bundesbank), deliberately letting their economies run hot to achieve "escape velocity" after the long malaise of secular stagnation.

Goldman Sachs says this revival of inflation will lead to the "revenge of the old economy", and the effect will be turbo-charged: a V-shaped recovery in demand will collide with a structural supply shortage, something normally seen only towards the end of the business cycle but already visible today even in a downturn. "Nearly every commodity is in deficit despite lockdowns," it said.

by Hook | 28th Nov 20, 6:49pm 1606542571

Haha Henry, what have GS been smoking?? There is definitely not a "supply" problem of commodities - there is arguably a delivery problem but that's not the same.

by Henry_Tull | 29th Nov 20, 8:48am 1606592899

Not not interesting
CNN: & Fareed Zakaria

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1332499247346888704

CNN: "So, the outcome would be to re-elect Donald Trump. Trump doesn't need to do anything other than to simply accept this outcome, which is Constitutional."

Lets see how RNZ (& Stuff’s copy of RNZ material) report this.

by fat pat | 29th Nov 20, 10:05pm 1606640703

I see the Herald is now publishing articles saying that Sweden is going to hell in a handbasket (see here), yet the real data shows that Sweden's excess mortality is literally at baseline level (see here). Is this not worthy of anyone's attention?