Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news an optimistic tone is settling over the global economy today, even if uncertainty is high.
Hopes of a vaccine-powered rise in activity later this year have led the IMF to upgrade its forecast for global economic growth in 2021. But they also warn about "exceptional uncertainty". Everything hinges on a successful vaccine rollout in the major economies. Their new global forecast is for growth of +5.5% this year and +4.2% in 2022. China and India will lead the way with China up +8.1% this year and India up more than +11% (although not everyone thinks India is on the right path.). A good +5.1% rise for the US however isn't matched again in 2022 (+2.5%). Europe also will struggle they say, as will Japan. (These forecasts don't include detail for Australia or New Zealand.)
South Korea has posted better than expected GDP data in Q4, 2020. It wasn't stellar but it was much better than expected, giving them a good start into 2021.
In the US retail sales are holding up. Last week they were +3.9% higher than the same week a year ago, and only -2% lower than the pre-Christmas holiday week last month. It is actually quite an encouraging result.
The Richmond Fed factory survey in the mid-Atlantic states shows a slowing in their expansion rate, but the levels remain good and the falloff isn't actually significant. New order intakes are good, and prices/costs are rising.
It is the same story with the latest consumer sentiment survey. Levels are stable at a moderate level, post election, although there is more optimism in the near term.
In Hong Kong the recovery in exports continued, up +11.7% in December from a year ago, and much better than the +5.6% rise in November on that same basis. But imports swelled as well, up +14.1% in December. This resulted in a much larger merchandise trade deficit for the month however.
Equity markets have opened in New York drifting unchanged for the S&P500. Earnings season is about to start and there is a collective holding of breath for that. Overnight, European markets were up, mostly by about +1.0%, and making back some of Monday's retreat. Yesterday, things were much more negative in Asian markets with Shanghai down a sharp -1.5%, Hong Kong was down much more by -2.6% while the very large Tokyo market was down -1.0%. In Australia, they were on holiday yesterday, while the NZX50 Capital Index shed -0.5%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is rising faster, now at 99,866,000 and up +520,000 in one day. We are virtually at 100 mln mainly because the UK variant is increasing its grip, and other variants are emerging too. It is still very grim everywhere except in our region. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,145,000 and +13,000 since yesterday. Only a few countries have started their vaccination programs. And although 68.4 mln doses have been given so far (+2.4 mln in a day), nowhere is the tide turned on infections or deaths yet - except perhaps in Israel, and maybe in the US.
But the largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +151,000 over the past day for their tally to reach 25,875,000. The US remains the global epicentre of the virus. The number of active cases rose overnight and is now just on 9,821,000 and +63,000 less than yesterday, so more recoveries than new infections. Their death total is up to 432,000 however (+2000). The US now has a COVID death rate of 1301/mln, awful but made to look 'good' by the disastrous UK level (1471) where deaths are still raging.
In Australia, their community outbreak is back well under control. That takes their all-time cases reported to 28,780, and only +3 more cases overnight, all new arrivals and all in managed isolation. 115 of these cases are 'active' (-7). Reported deaths are unchanged at 909.
The UST 10yr yield will start today down -1 bp at just under 1.04%. Their 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at +92 bps, their 1-5 curve is now at +33 bps, and their 3m-10 year curve is marginally steeper at +99 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 1.03%. The China Govt 10 year yield is up +3 bps at 3.19%, while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is down -3 bps at 1.04%.
The price of gold will start -US$3 today at US$1853/oz.
Oil prices are softer by -50 USc at just over US$52/bbl in the US while the international price is now just under US$55.50/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar will open firmer again at just under 72.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are now up at 59.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is up at 73.6.
The bitcoin price has meandered over the past 24 hours and is now at US$32,262 or -4.6% lower since this time yesterday. Volatility has been a relatively high +/- 5.4%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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73 Comments
From the company who spiked Meridians price a couple of weeks ago
The big action is in Gamespot, if you ever wanted an example of the outcome of Central Bank lunacy here it is.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wallstreetbets-user-writes-open-lette…
Crazy world of cheap money
https://twitter.com/jonnajarian/status/1354139976607399936/photo/1
Someone on Reddit thanked those who bought the Gamespot shares, as he sold up and paid off his student loan.
When the vaccines take effect and things normalise, there's definitely going to be some rabid inflation. And inevitable befuddlement on the best way to brake it.
I'll be watching closely the rollout of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine in New Zealand. It's a good test to see if health boards will be capable of delivering on Prime Ministers aim of having the program wound up in time for border reopening by the end of the year. A number of countries politicians hyped up their programs only to get off to a glacial start, hopefully ours looks more akin to the organized and efficient Israeli program.
Back of the cigarette packet they there will be about 4.45m New Zealanders left to do (5.2m population less 0.75m done in the initial Pfizer run) and most will probably need to be done by October so the rollour might be 120 days, so just over 37,000 vaccines per day would be the required rate. It might be a bit faster if some people refuse vaccination of course. So that inital program with the Pfizer vaccine (which requires two shots recall whereas the Johnson&Jonson jab is a one shot) run should be done in about 40 days to prove the health service is ready. That's only a loose stab at what to expect.
I think the most difficult part will be actually getting our hands on the vaccines. There isn't a lot of love to NZ by big pharma due to the pharmac model. So we might not be given the highest priority. I think 37,000 a day is achievable especially if they train chemists to administer them.
It's really important to note that we are part of COVAX, which the WHO is managing and gives out vaccines mainly on a need basis. If we start buying up vaccines in big numbers outside of this, we will be morally bankrupt as the vaccines are literally lifesaving medicines that we don't actually need (other than our frontline workers).
Fair enough NZ’s situation is almost unique, ironically we cannot readily get the protection of the vaccine because we are already well protected?
But the frontline staff do not enjoy that same barrier, they are in fact the barrier itself.. It should have been possible to secure the relatively modest quantity of vaccines required for them, long before now.
The barrier is good people following good practice including PPE. Yes they should be vaccinated ASAP, but that has to take into account the 10's of thousands dying in other parts of the world due to a lack of all of the above. How many of our MIQ staff have come down with the virus? Not many, none of them have died. Compare this to dead doctors/nurses and other frontline staff around the world and it's clear where the vaccines should go first. It's utilitarian, but on a global scale with limited supply of a life saving medicine, you have to allocate it where it will do the most good.
I have said from the when the first vaccine was announced that scaling the production of the vaccines to a global level is no easy task. We have 7 billion people needing around 20b doses for the first year or two. These aren't small numbers, so it's no surprise some of the manufacturers are now struggling. That means allocating a scarce resource with the most the highest level of efficacy to limit the number of deaths.
If the UK had priortised the economy, they would have done what we did. The UK is fairly unique, it cannot secure it's borders because it imports around 45% of it's food. It would literally starve if truck drivers couldn't get across the border, not only that, most of it's fresh food is imported providing 2 great vectors for the virus to come in.
If you are a caring person that doesn't want people to die, then you must see the logic of allocating the vaccine to where it is needed most. Otherwise you can use any logic you want for us to be first ("Because that country has corruption which meant they couldn't respond effectively, they get to the front of the vaccine queue?" or "Because that country didn't do a good enough job securing it's borders, they get to the front of the vaccine queue?"). It's about saving as many lives as possible, the moment you make it about anything else, you can justify any allocation you want and cost lives in the process.
If they wanted to save lives (and the economy) they could do a proper lockdown right now. Sure have an exemption for food delivery as we did, but I don't see how london commuters packed into the tube are essential for the food supply.
Take you point though, we are where we are and to save the most lives they get it. But if they wanted to save the most lives they would vaccinate alongside an effective lockdown.
'Biden’s tax plan would remove the stepped-up basis. According to the Forbes article, Biden’s Tax Increase On Death That No One Is Talking About, “Biden's tax plan calls for carrying over an asset’s tax basis from the the decedent to the next generation. No amount of estate tax exemption would help you, because this is a big income tax increase.” That income tax increase would destroy practically all small family run farms, because it would simply be too much to pay without selling out. '
https://www.lonesomelands.com/new-blog/2021/1/24/americas-family-owned-…
They could save in advance to pay the tax.
Am I the only one getting sick of the reasons to not pay tax on profits like the rest of us have to? It is quite visible in NZ farming where almost everyone is in it for the tax free capital gain rather than the taxable annual income.
You don't get it Jimbo, this is not a tax on profits, it is a tax on a paper 'value' that is no different from a CGT. The 'value' of the farm as indicated in the article, has little bearing on the income that farm brings in because markets for farm produce vary, and weather impacts. This is how economic policies disenfranchise ordinary people in the name of big corporates, because the people are impacted by the policy, but the big corporates are not. A Biden is a Democrat, this is fundamentally a betrayal of the principles for which he supposedly stands.
Its a paper value until you sell, then it is a nice big profit. Should you be able to avoid tax on that profit just by never selling (or in NZ be able to avoid it altogether)? I don't think that is fair at all.
Probably the fairest system would be to pay tax annually on the increased value of your assets, but that is just too hard. However doing that for land which is fairly easy to value would make sense IMO.
When it is sold it will be due for tax. Any 'value' that you might attribute to an asset means nothing until you can find someone to pay you that amount. At which point you should pay tax on the profit. It sounds like you're just jealous of someone who owns something that you don't. You're putting a value on someone else's property that they might not put on it themselves.
Taxing the paper value of an asset is about the stupidest idea there is and only favours big business and wealthy.
Tulsi Gabbard, fights the oligarchy
https://twitter.com/i/status/1354035548524957697
Ashley is scared of a brightline change: https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/38928
I agree it is a silly tax: capital gains should be taxed no matter how long you own the property for, there shouldn't be the need for a taxable duration.
I don't agree it would create double taxation: can anyone tell me how that would occur?
I don't agree that it "will impact on nobody": it will certainly impact me; I will feel a lot better that other people are paying tax on their earnings like I have to. It could even prevent a civil war!
Church is right, it's basically a CGT by stealth.
And he's also right that once it's 10 years it's not dealing with speculators.
Having said that I support a CGT so I don't have a problem with it, other than the government and Ms Ardern are being very disingenuous - if they do in fact introduce it.
On that point I agree too: extending the brightline is just a form of CGT.
I think Labour should grow some balls and say "we were wrong, we really do need a CGT, sorry but we are going to have to introduce one". Things definitely changed last year: for example one of the big reasons for not imposing a CGT was that it wouldn't make much revenue because prices had peaked and it was too late; that was obviously completely wrong.
Fritz... not so sure that "once it's 10 years it's not dealing with speculators". I personally held properties for 25 years (often negatively geared) purely for speculation. The significant capital gains I made (with almost no effort whatsoever) were completely tax free. And that is not right.
There is no double taxation
Ashley Church is scaremongering - peddling FAKE news
For newcomers the original cost of the property may be acquired using some taxed income
The original cost base of a property is tax-deductible in determining the Capital Gain
But, only the initial equity, and not the mortgage borowings, potentially have some taxed money
Of course the "players" who are in to their 4th and 5th property are using untaxed leverage
NZHerald is perpetuating FAKE news
KH... from anyone who would want to be a director of the Israel Institute of NZ you would expect nothing less than a toxic stream of complete bias.
One just has to look at what is going on in Israel with the vaccine roll out to understand how twisted and one-sided you would need to be to support a regime built around racism, segregation, and religious and ethnic discrimination.
Jimbo can you explain how a change in value of anything you own is 'income'?
Can you explain how a drop in value results in a loss of income?
My view is that a CGT will not change house prices, but will make it harder for home owners , in favour of landlords/rental business's.
You very clearly have not thought this through. A capital gain is most definitely NOT income, unless you have taken some measure to realise that change in value through some substantive means (selling the property at the new value, using the change in value as collateral in a loan, etc). Simple test - have you declared the change in value of your house (assuming you own your own) to the IRD as income to be taxed on? Don't say that you don't have to by law, the law requires you to declare ALL income to the IRD. I am not disputing the necessity for paying tax
The value of any thing, no matter what it is means absolutely nothing until it is turned into real money. owning an 'asset' creates a liability, but it doesn't necessarily create income. A owner occupier home owner has a liability not an income. A landlord has an income and passes his liabilities onto his tenants. Taxing capital gains penalises owner occupiers to the benefit of landlords. A CGT will have a negative consequence on people trying to get into their won home and make them more unaffordable.
Take a look at the genuinely wealthy. They are invariably making their wealth work for them, providing an income, not capital gain. They will sell assets to make a profit, they will use them as collateral, they will use them to generate cash (income). And invariably they will structure their business to minimise their tax liability. Most home owners on the other hand simply live in their house. They don't derive an income from it and they don't generally feel richer because it changes in value. That change in value does not help them pay their mortgage, pay their insurance, carry out maintenance on the property.
I got two phone calls last night from agents chasing older cattle, interesting play. They are not offering much per kg yet but taking big cattle, bigger bulls sold for $1500. I find this high risk behaviour really interesting, especially when there is trouble getting containers into China our main market.
I suspect it's the availability of cheap livestock finance creating a market that thinks it's okay to take risks, that and the FOMO hitting the livestock market. Lots of grass in the country is probably a driver too.
Bulls I couldn't get $900 for before Christmas are suddenly worth $1200 and heavy ones $1500. Sheep prices are crazy too, no one spends like a farmer with grass.
I am almost at my budget 4 months early, but I lose commission. Thats the trick to financing livestock, lend the money at %6 but capture the %5 commission when you buy and then another %5-8 when you sell to the works, in a short trade there could be %10-15 in it for the finance company and the livestock is mighty good security because it's growing. You lend on a $300 weaner calf for two years but capture a % from the meat works on a $1500 animal. I have heard of financed stock getting $100 head less than I was at kill, not bad for $300 capital then add commission at purchase and interest. Oh yeah baby, buy the Porsche and the house at the beach.
It's always fascinated me, If a finance company buys you cattle and you farm them, who claims the gst? If the finance company claims the gst as the owner of the animals, then you are just a grazer, but if you claim the gst, the finance company is just lending you the money, often, in most cases the bank with the mortgage has a claim on all livestock on the farm.
'The unemployment crisis in California continues to be huge. The state is still down 1.4 million “payroll jobs,” not including work for gig workers, from December 2019. The amount the state has paid in unemployment benefits is also huge: $114 billion between March 2020 and January 16, 2021. The state processed 19.5 million claims during that time, compared to 3.8 million claims in all of 2010, the unemployment peak of the Great Recession.
'
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/01/26/california-discloses-ballooning-unemp…
Just incase there are is anyone doubting the size of Brazil Ag
https://twitter.com/i/status/1350930106513059842
1977 to now
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsNwVwzW8AA0YgR?format=jpg&name=900x900
Gamestop Explodes Higher As Stock Is Now Trapped In $200 Call Gamma Vortex
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gamestop-explodes-higher-stock-now-tr…
Anyone got $50 Trillion to test this guys hypothesis? Evidently the opportunity is going to be Large - for WEF/Blackrock.
"We're going to need $50 trillion in investing to get to a net-zero world."
It's Gamestop ($GME) and the short squeeze isn't really due to money printing. It's happened because new technology (Robinhood) has allowed the retail investor into the options market with the little to no barrier to entry. Likewise Reddit (Wallstreetbets) has let these people communicate their positions and strategy. GME had a short interest of ~140% and was worth $5.00 midway through last year. Bottom line is hedge funds got greedy and thought no one would take the other side of the bet. The same will keep happening to other highly shorted stocks, not because the bear case is wrong but because Robinhood/WSB have realised they could move the market in a way only the big boys could in the past. This stuff has more to do with technology than money printing IMO.
It has more to do with musical chairs and betting.
All debt, all investing, is a forward bet, and the total far outweighs the ability of the planet to underwrite. HF managers have no choice, they're driven from behind - as are all boardrooms and CEO's. Who blinks first? Emperor's Clothes and all that....
Margin debt compared to 2000, 2008. Go to 4.55 on video
.https://www.financialsense.com/video/19842/weekly-update-speculation-re…
Musk Tweet Sends Gamestop Soaring (Even More) After Hours
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gamestop-explodes-higher-stock-now-tr…
USA has to rollover $8t of its LT debt (which is $22.5t by the way) in 2021.
In 2022 only $3t. Who will buy?
And what is inflation and rising 10 year rate going to do to that prospect?
Fall coming in markets, correction wise 10-15% and more in June-July. crash not til Oct
This detailed analysis indicates that returns on investments (stocks mostly) will be (as always) a lot less than last 10 years BECAUSE the last 10 years returns have been so high. And to get a new trend of bullishness, you first have to have a big reversal (over 60% in all likelihood)
And as most investors with its on market are passive and pensioners and over 65s have most of the wealth in society, what do you think this will do for overall wellbeing and spending?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/next-decade-will-likely-foil-most-fin…
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