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US consumer expectations rise; US jobs growth lackluster; Canada jobs shrink; China's food security issues rise; Aussies to exclude ag from net zero goal; UST 10yr at 1.16%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 72.2 USc; TWI-5 = 73.9

US consumer expectations rise; US jobs growth lackluster; Canada jobs shrink; China's food security issues rise; Aussies to exclude ag from net zero goal; UST 10yr at 1.16%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 72.2 USc; TWI-5 = 73.9

Here's our summary of key economic events over the long holiday weekend night that affect New Zealand, with news bitcoin has taken off again today, propelled by Elon Musk.

But first in the US, consumer inflation expectations are rising slightly and are now at 3.05%. The same survey reports rising consumer optimism, and that includes spending growth expectations which rose to 4.2%, the highest level recorded in more than 5 years.

American consumer debt grew modestly in December with no signs of excess either way. But revolving credit card debt is still shrinking and in quite an extended run that started in early 2019. But car and personal loans are growing to make up the difference.

A year ago, the US and China entered into Phase One of its trade deal. It has largely failed. US exports of the goods targeted in 2020 fell more than -40% short of the target. In addition, the anti-China tariffs failed spectacularly as well of course.

Over the weekend in the US, their January non-farm payrolls report was a lackluster affair, coming in with a +49,000 increase in jobs and almost exactly as expected. Much is being made of the fall in the jobless rate to 6.3% from 6.7% but that is partly because their participation rate slipped to just 61.4%. There are still 7 mln people looking for work. If there is a silver lining in this data is that for those in jobs, average hourly earnings are up +5.4% year-on-year although that is probably 'boosted' by the fall-off by the lower-paid.

The new policymakers in Washington are worried about this jobs data. It bolstered the case for the Biden US$1.9 tln pandemic stimulus plan. And their Senate voted 51-50, after Vice President Kamala Harris broke her first tie, to adopt the budget blueprint for the Biden plan.

Canada reported January jobs data as well and it wasn't very good either; worse in fact. They shed -213,000 jobs when a -50,000 decrease was expected. Their jobless rate jumped to a worrying 9.4%. Their participation rate fell too, to 64.7%. They too are having issues with holding on to low-paid positions and you can see th effect when the average earnings went up +5.9% in 2020.

Singapore reported December retail sales overnight and they were very weak, dropping on both a month-on-month basis and a year-on-year basis.

The Chinese new year festival will formally start on February 11th and go on till February 26th. Things are winding down there already.

Coal prices in China might be starting to slip, but iron ore prices are remaining stubbornly high. And food prices are staying high too, a special risk for Beijing in a holiday period.

China's food security issues are not easing. In fact they are approaching emergency levels in the South. Rainfall since the end of 2020 in regions south of the Yangtze River was 50-80% less than usual and distributed very unevenly. Now authorities have imposed emergency restrictions on industrial water use. You will recall, this is the area we reported severe and threatening flooding in July last year.

China is again warning its citizens not to study in Australia due to 'great risks' like the pandemic and racial discrimination. This is being seen as just part of Beijing's attempt to get Canberra to toe its policy line.

In Australia, their new-found effort to transition to carbon-free will likely see their trade-exposed emissions-intensive industries, including the farming sector, carved out of any plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Turnover of housing might be about to zoom higher in NSW, if a plan by their government to abolish Stamp Duty gets over the line. Property sales could surge by an extra 100,000 transactions each year in the State according to official estimates. Real estate activity is already very strong in Australia so adding that sort of demand without adding supply will come with obvious impacts.

On Wall Street the S&P500 is up +0.3%. Overnight European markets were also up about +0.3%. Yesterday Shanghai rose +1.0%, Hong Kong was up only +0.1%, but the very large Tokyo market has an impressive +2.1% gain. The ASX200 gained +0.6% and of course the NZX was closed yesterday.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising, now at 106,278,000 and up +278,000 in one day. The pandemic seems to be easing in many places now. Global deaths reported now exceed [2,320,000] and +6,000 since yesterday.

More countries (83) have started their vaccination programs. And although 130.8 mln doses have been given so far (+2.5 mln more overnight), nowhere has the tide turned on infections - except perhaps in Israel and the USA. However, there is clear evidence the vaccines are working to reduce or even eliminate deaths for those who have taken it.

The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +21,000 overnight for their tally to reach 27,617,000. The US remains the global epicentre of the virus although there is a clear easing. The number of active cases fell overnight and is now just on 9,787,000 and 3,000 less in one day, so more recoveries than new infections. Their death total is little-changed at 475,000 as the vaccination program kicks in. We now wait to see if there is any Superbowl party super spreading data. The US now has a COVID death rate of 1430/mln, and that compares to the disastrous UK level (1656) where deaths are also still rising (113,000, +1000 overnight).

In Australia, their community control is impressive. Their all-time cases reported is now 28,857 and only +7 more cases overnight, all from new arrivals and all in managed isolation. 51 of these cases are 'active' (+1). Reported deaths are unchanged at 909.

The UST 10yr yield is down another -1 bp from Friday at just under 1.16% although over the weekend it did rise to 1.20%. Their 2-10 rate curve is steeper at 105 bps, their 1-5 curve is up at +40 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also steeper at +113 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up +1 bp at 1.24%. The China Govt 10 year yield is also up +1 bp at 3.26%, while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is holding at 1.38%.

The price of gold will start today with a +US$22 bounce-back at US$1837/oz. Silver has rallied more.

Oil prices are slightly higher at just under US$58/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just over US$60/bbl. These represent a rise of about +US$1/bbl and are now at pre-pandemic levels. The combination of OPEC supply cuts and new American stimulus are driving the rise.

And the Kiwi dollar will open today having risen back to 72.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are softer at 93.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still just on 60 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is up to 73.9 and back where it was about a week ago.

The bitcoin price has risen sharply again overnight and is now well above US$40,000 again. It is now at US$43,243 and up by almost +12% in a day. In New Zealand currency it has touched NZ$60,000. Tesla said it may start accept bitcoin as a payment method for its products, which has sent the price soaring. Volatility has been very high at +/- 9.3%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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123 Comments

by Audaxes | 31st Jan 21, 9:03am
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Can anyone competently refute the assertions made in this article? - 10 Reasons that SARS-CoV-2 Is an Imaginary and Theoretical Virus

Audaxes: Try this link.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/15-11-2020/siouxsie-wiles-kochs-postula...
Note - Email link on your website is non-functional.

I don't understand you question, but the spinoff article does a good job of debunking that particular conspiracy theory as it is based on ideas from when we didn't know what a virus was.

Great news on the vaccine front. They are working; hospitalization in Israel for the vaccinated group has plunged, and they can be adjusted to variants. The next stoush will be production as people are rightly pointing out that unless governments themselves build manufacturing facilities supply will not ramp up.

So they should build them! It should be treated like a war time effort.

Exactly, at 2.5m a day, that's over 8 years for the whole world to be given ONE dose. But we need a booster dose as well, so 16 years. Obviously far too long. We need to be doing 21m per day to cover everyone in a year.

Terrible news on the vaccine front as the Astrazenica vaccine is pretty much useless against the South African variant. Israel has hard closed its boarders to keep the south African variant out. Not a viable long term strategy.
We won't be vaccinating ourselves out of Covid

yup, unless they can adapt the vaccine quickly, the SA variant will just run rampant as it's competition is wiped out by the vaccienes.

Still we don't know that the many other vaccines are ineffective.

If it turns out that the AZ vaccine doesn't protect against the South African strain, does that mean the UK will have to revaccinate the people who had the AZ shot? How much will that cost? At what point will people get "vaccine fatigue"? And what guarantees are there that there won't be a new variant by the time they a vaccine for the South African variant? Could be a nightmare...

The mRNA vaccines will be the only option then..

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moder...

Great headline!!!

....... "Breakfast briefing: The pandemic shows signs of easing"

Tesla accepting payment in BTC is not the news to report here folks. When will you understand that Bitcoin is not designed to be an every day transactional currency? This is the important part of that news:

Tesla’s latest Form 10-K filing for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2020 shows a $1.5 billion allocation to Bitcoin. As Bitwise researcher David Lawant points out, Tesla’s BItcoin exposure represents roughly 7.7% of its gross cash position.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/tesla-allocates-7-7-of-gross-cash-to-bitcoin

A flood of corporate balance sheets will do the same over the next 6 months. Only 3 days ago, Michael Saylor presented his BTC playbook to 1600 fortune 500 CEOs, who are desperate to maintain the purchasing power of their cash reserves in the face of QE.

Indeed, an important snippet to omit.

As for Bitcoin not being designed to be an every day transactional currency - it's important to distinguish between Bitcoin the network or BTC the asset: https://jimmymow.medium.com/announcing-strike-global-2392b908f611

Crypto will eat the world of finance, so agree there's going to be thousands of products replacing the old financial mechanisms as time marches on. The lightning network though, is a layer 2 (2nd gen) solution over top of the BTC main net so technically quite different. Interesting tech indeed, but there's A LOT of competition in the transactional space (many 3rd gen solutions now) and IMO we're only just getting into the innovator stage, whereas Bitcoin has crossed into early adopter.

To be one of the many winners in the currency space, horsepower and simplicity is required, and any successful solution needs a one click turn key sign up process, non-custodial wallet and account infrastructure, de-centralised governance, and huge transactions per second volume to become a global currency. Look at $COTI as a leading example right now of what I've described.

"Crypto will eat the world of finance..."

Who will pay the police in this Anarchy state utopia?

Stupid question. Responsible voting taxpayers will continue to pool resources to advance society the same as always. Anarchy is a myth for punk rockers and the brainless. Society has never successfully operated historically under the law of anarchy en masse.

The difference under blockchain based financial systems is likely to be that governments and financial institutions won't be able to collude to rob those same taxpayers blind via currency devaluation, corporate bailouts and market manipulation. If everyone is their own bank (having a non-custodial wallet/bank account) then large organisations who want to use that money will have to convince people its worth spending. They'll have to ask permission for every single transaction because the balance sheets will be transparent. That's what "not your keys not your bitcoin [crypto]" means in practice.

Hey Ezy, do you have any crypto news sources that you'd recommend?

I use http://cryptopanic.com/ as a one stop shop.

Cheers!

It certainly got a brainless response

What power does a Govt have if it doesnt have control over currency?

You also dont appear to realise EVERYONE's wages depend on that fiat debt bonanza
And those clever citizens now want to turn the tap off? Interesting

I think in the small print Tesla will accept bitcoin for Tesla stock, as the 2 mirror each others movements, roughly.

Headline should read re BTC....
Bitcoin surged to an all-time high after Tesla Inc. said it’s invested $1.5 billion, the biggest endorsement of the controversial cryptocurrency by a mainstream company.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-08/bitcoin-finds-new-mom...

But some commentators on this site are far wiser than Elon Musk?

I wonder if Tesla will account for the carbon debt for that Bitcoin.

Greenhouse contribution is a strange blindspot many people have with bitcoin. Quite the hypocrisy.

Unless bitcoin can migrate to proof of stake, as ethereum is doing, it clearly has no future.

I wonder what the carbon debt of visa and Mastercard transactions are as a comparison...or even printing, trucking around cash and counting/storing it?
Anyhow saving up to buy my first Tesla and pay by BTC..

"The Bitcoin algorithm demands increasing amounts of computational power to validate transactions. If it were a country, its annualized estimated carbon footprint would be comparable to New Zealand at about 37 million tons of carbon dioxide. One Bitcoin transaction would generate the CO2 equivalent to 706,765 swipes of a Visa credit card"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-26/is-bitcoin-mining-...

Suddenly a lot of greenies on this site...no protest down at the local goldmine or oil well this week booked in?

You're replying to the wrong poster here - I vote Green, grow my own veg, rarely eat meat and bike everywhere. And I own no bitcoin.

Hope you have an EV like me as well

I think just a growing proportion of the population can read the writing on the wall.

Actually, it DOES NOT require more and more computing power to process transactions. It would be able to function perfectly fine with only a handful of GPU's running the system. One of the ingenious parts of the system is the difficulty adjustment. This changes every 2 weeks so that a block is mined every 10 min on average. So no matter how many people are mining it (or how much computing power is on the network) it will still function the same. The computing power is used to secure the network against a 51% attack. So it could drop by half and still be perfectly secure.
So going back to "The Bitcoin algorithm demands increasing amounts of computational power to validate transactions" This is totally wrong. The network is attracting more and more computational power because people have done the economic analysis on the future price of Bitcoin, and they have decided that the electricity costs and other capital expenditure is well worth it to acquire Bitcoin now while there are 6.25 BTC created every 10 min rather than 3.125 after the next halving in 2024.

Always well informed comments.

Thanks mate, I try to provide educational material to hep people learn if they want to.

In the last study I read fiat was an order of magnitude more efficient than bitcoin.

Bitcoin having estimated power consumption of a country about the size of New Zealand.

Ironically Tesla have opened a door here to be attacked by the green brigade.

If you factor in the environmental cost of producing the battery and replacing it every 8 to 10 years, Tesla is an emissions story but not an environmental one - so why would Musk care. I think Tesla are in extreme bubble territory like Bitcoin and BNPL - but they can stay there for a while.

If a digital token with no return is worth NZ$60k, then 800 sq/m of land in an Auckland suburb is a bargain at any price.

"Tesla is an emissions story but not an environmental one"

Exactly
But its worse than that.
Where are all those people driving to?

Answer; Jobs built (& dependent) on Consumption alley

And can it be scaled? hmmm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_gvvj56rzw

Why would you need to replace a Tesla battery every 8-10 years? The one in our cheapie Leaf is older than that and doing fine.

https://medium.com/@danhedl/pow-is-efficient-aa3d442754d3

Please educate yourselves about Bitcoins energy production.
Of note is the chart about two thirds of the way down that compares Bitcoins energy usage to that of Gold and Fiat money.
Energy usage (GJ) (from table so may be outdated):
Bitcoin: 183M
Banking system: 2,340M
Governments: 5,861M

Also of note, I love how people think they can gate keep what people use the electricity, that they have spent their money on, for??

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1040621230691213314 the TLDR version of the article.

This weekend I tried a Nano faucet - the thing was instantaneous. It's also not mined, so the footprint of Nano is a fraction of the power required for BTC and easily scales. Sadly I missed BTC but people dismissing all crypto based on the engineering of BTC are missing the point. BTC has laid a foundation, what's coming next will blow people's minds.

I agree with that - bitcoin has opened the door for others which will take over and genuinely prove useful. The trouble is, there's so damned many to choose from and I have no particular expertise for choosing which are likely to make it.

I will just keep on buying real assets and if the common currency ever changes, I will start to use it.

Convert that to energy / transaction and those figures really show how terrible bitcoin is for energy consumption.

The article also seems to imply that if we used bitcoin we wouldn't need governments or a military which is a bit of a stretch.
" existing fiat systems which not only have power requirements banking infrastructure, but the military and political machina."

Fiat currency is backed by the belief in the institution issuing it. Ergo the USD is backed by the military, so you need to factor that into the energy consumption of the currency.
It says that Bitcoin does not need any other energy to support it. What is used to mine it is all that it needs.

So countries that don't have their own currency, (e.g. use the USD or non-EU member using the EUR) who do you factor their military expenses against?

Your fave celebrity anarcho-capitalist ! Omg so dreamy, so wise!

"Amazing proof of high level of anti-COVID19 antibodies in Sweden. This happened before vaccination, without enforced lockdown or school closures, & a total age adjusted excess death for 2020 of 2,974 (6,334 if no age adjustment).

This is 288/million & 1.6 weeks natural death.

...From the number with antibodies and thus infected, the IFR in Sweden must be about 0.06%. "

https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1357931414331662337

10
up

Can't beat a Tweet as solid peer reviewed scientific evidence......on such are fantasy castles built.

Even better, if you follow the link through the article it's based on concludes an IFR of 0.25% which is in line with other antibody studies - nothing new. The tweet 'recalculates' this based on an un-referenced excess deaths number which is much lower than figures I've seen elsewhere. Great Science.

Jump in to his twitter feed for all the references before you slag him off. Making falsifiable predictions - based on existing data back in May - and which have panned out, isn't science?

Yeah who even is Michael Levitt @MLevitt_NP2013 (80.5K Followers) anyway?

Oh hang on:

Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), FRS & US National Academy member, I code well for my age.

Then there's responses by PhD professors, conspiracy theorists, every day Joes and Janes, voting members of the public. Looks like you can't use your own brain to filter the noise and make up your own mind though oldbloke, resorting to a straw man attack on Twitter rather than discussing the subject. People are getting so partisan on both sides uninterested in any dialogue that disagrees with their echo chamber world view. If that doesn't change soon, then we're destined for war.

The thing about Levitt he correctly predicted these number of deaths back in May based on the Diamond Princess numbers. Unlike the 80,000 deaths our princess was rabbiting on about.

"If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought."
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/05/04/qa-nobel-laureate-says-covid-19...

It's a shame that the second wave ruined that theory- Sweden are up to 12,000 deaths now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

I certainly agree it won't destroy humanity, but it's a little more than flu - probably a few times more deadly.

mfd,

You are wasting your time on profile. he recently posted about there being NO excess deaths in the US and when that was shown to be false, he just went silent. he is a conspiracy theorist and should just be ignored or better yet, laughed at.

Linklater could you link this no US excess deaths post? I have said repeatedly you have me confused with another poster so I would like to lay it to rest. I very rarely post without a reputable link. Cheers.

mfd note the term "age adjusted" in Levitt's post. Worldometer don't adjust for age or people dying with Covid - as opposed to of Covid. Note in link deaths in Sweden were the lowest in 2019 (88766) for at least a decade - as they had a very light flu season. This bumped a lot more oldies into 2020 than usual. But perhaps I am just a conspirator - posting a Nobel laureate.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

This has totally missed the biggest financial news of the day.

"In January 2021, we updated our investment policy to provide us with more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity. As part of the policy, which was duly approved by the Audit Committee of our Board of Directors, we may invest a portion of such cash in certain alternative reserve assets including digital assets, gold bullion, gold exchange-traded funds and other assets as specified in the future. Thereafter, we invested an aggregate $1.50 billion in bitcoin under this policy and may acquire and hold digital assets from time to time or long-term. Moreover, we expect to begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for our products in the near future, subject to applicable laws and initially on a limited basis, which we may or may not liquidate upon receipt."

About 8% of their total cash reserves. They purchased sometime in January, putting their total buy in the range of 45k BTC. That's around 50 days worth of total new supply at the current block reward of around 900 per day.

Total cases per day been falling in worst countries of USA and Uk for 3 weeks as I have stated prev
Inflation rise forecast 6 months ago when commentariat all pooh- poohing it .

mk29,

Well, the Oracle speaks again. You posted that 18th Feb was to be a key date in the forthcoming collapse. What precisely will happen then?

The turn. Try presenting an argument occasionally. It stimulates brain

Over the weekend in the US, their January non-farm payrolls report was a lackluster affair, coming in with a +49,000 increase in jobs and almost exactly as expected.

The good news, such that it might be, is that the BLS – using data from the Census Bureau – believes that the American population is slowing down. According to the latest Civilian Non-institutional population estimates for January 2021, published alongside the current payroll report, the count was adjusted downward by around 400,000 consistent with the same kind and level revisions of the prior couple years.

Demographic trends like this aren’t normally taken for a positive. But with fewer new Americans, the struggling economy won’t have to create as many new jobs to keep them gainfully employed and out of the streets. As it is now, forgetting the 10 million who lost jobs last year and didn’t get them back, as politicians and Economists alike tend to do, the labor market isn’t even keeping up with reduced population expansion. Link

Interesting Audaxes. Yes - it is not normally taken as a positive, but should often be.

I am assuming the bitcoin commentators here are not $ billionaires. I would like to see some lists of what daily uses they put bitcoin to.
Genuine question. Say over the last week.
They have already told us well about the speculation and trading so thats not needed.

You should buy some. And then do nothing with it. That's the point. Tell me, that 12 month term deposit you have - what daily uses over the last week did you employ it for?

Don't have term deposits.
I think you are saying it's a storage place for asset's or wealth. If so then that's use "A"
What's some others

Much like property, among it's many hard money values it's also a great conversation starter at BBQ's. Is that the sort of thing you're after KH?

Oh and as far as being billionaires, if bitcoins were distributed using the current global distribution of wealth, 99.9% of people would have $19.76 worth of bitcoins, and people in the top .001% would have 0.73 bitcoins each.

I'd say there's more than a few of us here who have a lot more than 1 BTC, so more than likely to be a few future billionaires over the next 10-20 years.

Thanks ezy. So "B" property. I'll put that down but have to think about what the similarities are.
As for "BBQ conversations" I'll pass. Reminds me of conversations about Judge Corp and Equitycorp at Friday drinkies..

But what more do you want out of a reserve asset? Aren't you psyched about a liquid, scarce store of value. It's quite the rush.

In which currency will you be a billionaire?

great question
sounds like fiat is implied ... so we are back to square one

Satoshis.

Although I wouldn't be surprised if governments will be the cause of the ATH crash this halving. They'll most likely attempt to regulate BTC as it gets closer to $350k causing the value to plummet. But the next halving will happen, they'll start to realise regulation is possible but not centralised as they know it, large pro BTC corporates will be lobbying, governments will start capitulating in part and finally government hedging will drive the 2024-28 ATH cycle. We're still at least 10 years away from wide scale transactional crypto adoption IMO. By then, everything will be measured in SATS.

There are still many commentators here who seem to think this is all just going to go away... Juat announced today, the CEO of Visa has now referred to BTC as “digital gold” and Visa is implementing a program to allow banks to offer BTC services worldwide. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/visa-launches-api-for-banking-with-bitco...

Digital gold?
Thats dark ages.
Fiat got rid of that 40 years ago

The Debt leverage pays wages people!
Gold standard bascially restricted leverage. Hence it was binned to history

There won't be many, if any. Bitcoin simply does not work as a currency for simple trading of typical daily purchases.

* High transaction cost
* Volatility
* Slow transaction confirmation (there is a time/cost trade-off)
* Very few vendors support it

It's not booming because it will be the currency of the future.

Thanks Roger.

I asked for some bitcoin uses beyond speculation and trading. Genuine question.
So various answers.
1. No uses mentioned for daily transactions. So no list that I asked for, but informative. Iguess there are none.
2. Store of value. Like property and term deposits. The property reference I don't understand. As for term deposits I have used those in the past for storing big amounts of cash for a year or less in the midst of a build project. Predictability and stability was the useful thing, which bitcoin does not provide. So not for me.
3. Conversation at BBQs. As before this reminded me of excited talk about Judge Corp and EquityCorp. Not useful.
4. It's a rush. Reminds me of people I met in Las Vegas. They sure were getting the rush. But strangely did not get the math as to why the casinos offered them free flights and accommodation. So not for me.
5. There was absolute certainty that riches were ahead.
Riches are there maybe, but the certainty I don't have. So why would I.
Conclusion. Not for me (obviously) but clearly suits some.
Update: @3.20pm. 6. Saving boomers assets from certain doom by the certainty of bitcoin. (see ezy below) such certainty is not for me.

This is so poetic. Boomers are completely groping in the dark for meaning when it comes to the crypto space, unable seemingly to do any of their own research and weigh up the technology themselves. In spite of the fact that many of them can see the writing on the wall in traditional markets, they haven't the faintest idea about the benefits of blockchain, the relationship of fiat with a balance sheet, and the historical opportunity of a decentralised ledger. In light of that I think there's just one single benefit KH:

1. Massive wealth transfer from boomers to the younger generations.

https://www.gmo.com/australia/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

What part of Visa referring to it as “Digital Gold”, makes you think they believe intended use cases are small value high frequency transactions?

Well I've just learnt that Visa are backing Zap, who built Strike Global:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/visa-backed-bitcoin-startup-to-launch-lig...

You guys need to get your stories straight.

Lol, heard of lightning? or Strike global?
Or try this, you guys know the SWIFT network right? the international settlement network that takes about a week to finalise your international transfer? Well consider that the layer 1 part of the fiat network. Do you use that every day for your transactions? of course you dont, you use the 4th or 5th or 6th layer on the global fiat network. Layers include SWIFT > central banks> retail banks> electronic payments (roughly, def missed a few)
And now tell me that we are going to be using the main Bitcoin network for day to day transactions?? you arnt.
why would you want you pissy transactions immortalised on the Bitcoin Blockchain and stored in thousands of different locations around the world? The mainnet is going to be used for massive settlement transactions that need 156 terrahashes of computing power to secure it.

Yep, aware of Lightning. Never heard of Strike Global.
Lightning doesn't change anything for everyday transactions as they are still on the blockchain - you said as much yourself.

Strike Global looks interesting, will wait and see - I've only found limited details on how it _actually_ works, who carries the risk and who you are trusting - given the transaction is off the blockchain.

Lightning transactions occur off chain, the nthe settle to the main chain periodically. Ergo you can get hundreds+ transactions within one bitcoin transaction. Also there is batching, such as between exchanges who will send one large transaction that represents numerous customer transactions. The number of Txs is an irrelevant metric.

We have made our first bitcoin speculation ( trade) this morning at 44050, stop loss 48920. Will it be gone by lunchtime.

Whats your take profit though? This is the real question, other wise you are going to get rekt.

Well 4 hours later that was a very successful trade to start. Nice work.

Hmm i got the impression he was shorting it? A stop loss is used to limit losses in a trade when it goes against you. ergo saying he has a stop loss at 49k implies he was betting it would go down. Or maybe im just too used to all the Bitcoin bears on Interest haha

38600 is first target, but the chart and story and noise still all point to the moon.

Good luck with that

We have adjusted SL to 51700

Its the weekend, SL 55375. Mid March a number of brokerages are to start altering settings for retail investors

Closed position 10 contracts 47400 11.30 pm loss. Entry point could not have been worse. on news flow. Momentum/news clearly wants another go at 50000 mark. Brought 10 contracts 47600 S/L 42000, first target 50500

SL now 47900, first target 51600

5 contracts sold at 50500 1.30 am.5 contracts ,remain new target 55000, SL lowered 47450 at same .

SL moved to 48440, 4hr chart pushing higher ,relentless.

SL to 49333, 3 contracts target 53111, 2 contracts 54888

SL moved to 50655

Sold two contracts at 52400, SL moved to 50875 one contract, two contracts unchanged

Two contracts SL 49887

Math done ,another contract sold at 52400,two contracts remain, SL same , target lifted to 75000

Coming to weekend , technically very boisterous.SL moved to 50888.Who knows what will happen Target one contract moved to 91, other stays same at 75.

Its a beast SL moved to 52655 on one, 53222 on other, Lock in profit .Targets left.

There is only one use for Bitcoin, HODL. Literally all you have to do is buy and hold. Bitcoin and time are the only 2 truly scarce assets available to human kind. Everything else can be produced in increasing qualities if the price is sufficiently high enough to make it worth the effort.
A true store of value is what this world has found in Bitcoin.

I like the naysayers. They remind me that people do suffer from stockholm syndrome.

My toes are a truly scarce asset - there's only 10 in the world and no more will be created. How much will you bid for one?

More seriously, this is the same kind of crazy that's investing in companies with no plan for profitability, ever. There has to be a pay off eventually, like the currency coming into common usage, or else it comes rather too close to resembling a ponzi scheme. The price only continues to go up so long as new money keeps on arriving, which relies on the assumption that the price will keep going up. This will work just great until it doesn't.

Put your toes on the open market and let people decide the price.

I just did - are you in? Buy now and secure a whole toe before they get fractionalised.

Can I take your toe with me into the USA? Shouldnt have a problems getting it through security right?

With a little imagination it can easily be stowed about your person.

yup I reckon your toe would have some resale value - send it to me and I'll send you what I think it's worth.

Even though mfd is all talk, I guess at least s/he does give gravitas to the concept of "skin in the game".

In hindsight.... it was inevitable....

Another false dawn?

Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the Government is planning to clamp down on property speculators to address the housing crisis. Robertson didn’t provide further details on the plans, but said it was time for “bold action”.He said the Government would announce a rolling series of measures to address the housing crisis, starting with moves to control demand in late February. The Government has received advice from Treasury and the Reserve Bank on measures to manage demand and discourage speculation and proposals will go before Cabinet shortly, he said. “The market has moved quickly and rapidly in a way that is not sustainable,” he said. “We have to confront some tough decisions, and we will do that.”

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124167026/government-has-property-specu...

It would be a huge benefit to NZers if house prices went down.
But this government won't go there.

"But this government won't go there." and neither do home owners (but they wont say that but rather frown and nod)

~60 billion of GDP comes from real estate/construction.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/which-industries-contributed-to-new-zeal...

Not to mention all of the small businesses propped up by loans made against the family home.

Hard to see that a big drop in house prices will be allowed to happen.

Very interesting.
Can they do decisive action as opposed to talking about decisive action?
I guess miracles do happen, sometimes... I would love to. be surprised.

Don't study in Australia, go to NZ instead - NZ turns a blind eye to all China's Human Rights issues.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/the-detail/story/2018782269/uyghurs-the...

Our Govt Books are selling well...far better to own a Govt Book Store than Bitcoin. Who needs China....I Grant you "Its Debt"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/governments-debt-level-expected-to-be-60b-...

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up

Yes. I am beginning to be a little concerned at the level of hypocrisy being demonstrated particularly by the MSM and the Government. Over the weekend Air NZ has been blasted because it did some work as a third party on some Saudi Navy gas turbines. the concern being Saudi's involvement in "atrocities" in Yemen. But we happily trade with China while also this weekend, the Brits have released a report on the treatment of Uighur women in the so called "education camps" which is nothing short of appalling and must at least compare with what is occurring in Yemen.

Many years ago, the Jewish-American political commentator Walter Lippmann realised that political ideology could be completely fabricated, using the media to control both presentation and conceptualisation, not only to create deeply-ingrained false beliefs in a population, but also to entirely erase undesirable political ideas from the public mind. This was the beginning of not only the American hysteria for freedom, democracy and patriotism, but of all manufactured political opinion, a process that has been operative ever since. Link

And of course criticism of Israel remains off limits for most.

I probably have used some Saudi oil product over the years.

Oh dear.....BTC, covid and property. What a world we live in.

As opposed to what though? Chardonnay and markets that have jumped the shark?

Well my prediction of $40k BTC over the weekend got smashed - lucky you brought up large at the beginning of the year Rastus after our recommendation?

Hang on a mintue, how does 100K transactions = 100K demand and not also 100K supply? You can't have transaction without a seller

"an extra 100,000 transactions each year in the State according to official estimates. Real estate activity is already very strong in Australia so adding that sort of demand without adding supply will come with obvious impacts."