Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we had another good dairy auction - but our currency retreated in its shadow.
The overnight dairy auction has brought higher prices again, up +3.0% in US dollar terms and up +2.1% in New Zealand dollar terms from the prior event. That makes the gain since the start of this current dairy season last year at +25% in US dollars and +14% in Kiwi dollars. Today's auction was led by the +4.3% rise for WMP prices on Chinese demand. This means that ten of the past eleven auctions have brought price rises and that will underpin farm gate milk payout forecasts - even have analysts considering further boosts.
There was not a lot of economic data released overnight, but the one key piece from the US, the New York Empire State factory survey, was very positive indeed. It reported a good recovery and expansion led by a strong growth in new orders. Two features are worth noting; the rise and rise in input prices, and the renewed commitment to capital expenditure.
Meanwhile, as part of their pandemic support, the White House said it would extend a ban on home foreclosures for federally backed mortgages through June 30 and expand assistance for people behind on payments.
In Japan, the consequence of the weekend earthquake we reported are starting to be felt with industrial production being shuttered in some key firms and factories.
In Germany, while business sentiment about current conditions remains poor, there has been a noticeable improvement in future expectations.
New York equity markets restarted after their holiday positively but have given all those early gains to be flat in early afternoon trade. Overnight European markets were generally lower. Yesterday, Hong Kong returned from holiday and posted a +1.9% gain. Tokyo was up +1.3%. Shanghai remains closed for their holiday. The ASX200 rose +0.7% yesterday while the NZX50 Capital Index was up +0.8%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising but at a slower pace, now at 109,285,000 and up +315,000 in one day. The pandemic seems to be easing in some places now although that may just because it is the weekend and counting systems are delayed. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,412,000 and +9,000 since yesterday.
More countries (93) have started their vaccination programs. About 178.1 mln doses have been given so far (+17.4 over the weekend). There is clear evidence the vaccines are working to reduce or even eliminate deaths for those who have taken it.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +56,000 over the past day for their tally to reach 28,325,000. The US remains the global epicentre of the virus although there is clearly some easing. The number of active cases fell sharply overnight and is now just on 9,454,000 and -92,000 fewer over the weekend, so less new infections again than recoveries. Their death total is up at 498,000 (+1000) in one day. The US now has a COVID death rate of 1500/mln, and that compares to the disastrous UK level (1735) where deaths are also still rising (118,000) but a bit more slowly now their vaccinations are rolling out.
In Australia, their community control continues to impress. Their all-time cases reported is now 28,905 and only +7 more cases overnight, +2 in the community and the rest new arrivals and all in managed isolation. 43 of these cases are 'active' (+2). Reported deaths are unchanged at 909.
The UST 10yr yield is sharply higher as the reflation trade gathers steam. It is now up +7 bps to 1.28% which means that from the start of the month it is up a cumulative +20 bps. Their 2-10 rate curve is sharply steeper at 160 bps, their 1-5 curve is also steeper at +48 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is much steeper at +125 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up another +5 bps at 1.38%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.26%, while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up another +6 bps at 1.44%.
Oil prices are down about -US$1 and are now at just over US$59.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is just under US$62.50/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar opens today marginally softer at 72.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are still at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are at 59.6 euro cents and unchanged. That means our TWI-5 is little-changed again, now at 73.6.
The bitcoin price is little-changed from this time yesterday and is now at US$48,641. However at 1:30am this morning it did push up through US$50,000 very briefly to a new record high of US$50,585, but it fell back just as quickly. The spike looks like a manipulated trade however. Volatility remains high at +/- 3.7%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».