Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the economic tide seems to be rising, and so do interest rates.
There hasn't been any first tier economic data out in the US overnight but the second tier data has been notably positive. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index was up to a three-month high in January. And the Dallas Fed's regional factory survey was also positive, even if it was taken before the recent arctic storm. A sharp rise in new orders was a standout feature.
American mortgage rates are turning higher in the wake of the sharp rise recently in benchmark bond yields.
In Canada, a minor policy dispute has erupted over how they have changed how they measure 'core inflation', resulting in a backtrack by their statistics agency and upward revisions in core CPI.
Across the Atlantic, they are worried about those benchmark interest rate increases.
All the same, the German IFO business sentiment survey improved by much more than expected in their February edition perhaps suggesting the ECB will have a hard time keeping its policy rates low.
In Beijing, that are pushing ahead with 'reforms' for Hong Kong to ensure "only patriots" hold office in all three branches of government - the executive, legislature and judiciary - as well as their statutory bodies. There will be no place for any democracy. Hong Kong has become just another Chinese city, and no longer deserves its special status in international affairs.
In China, mortgage rates are turning higher there too.
Meanwhile, Beijing remains focused on its food security issues. Its upcoming Communist Party meeting to adopt a new five-year plan places food security as issue number one.
The wobble in the iron ore price was short-lived with prices trending higher yesterday. But other mineral prices like copper are stealing the limelight with rises for tin, nickel, lithium and zinc also in an upward trend.
Wall Street has opened lower, with the S&P500 down by -0.6% in early afternoon trade. Overnight European markets slipped by about -0.2%. Yesterday the very large Tokyo market rose by +0.5% but it wasn't matched by either Hong Kong (-1.1%) or Shanghai (-1.5%). The ASX200 fell -0.2% yesterday and the NZX50 Capital Index ended its session down a full -1.00%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising but at a little-changed pace, now at 111,556,000 and up +352,000 in one day. But it seems to be easing in some notable places in the first world. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,469,000 and +6,000 since yesterday.
More countries (104) have started their vaccination programs. About 208.3 mln doses have been given so far (+3.5 mln in the past day). There is clear evidence the vaccines are working to reduce or even eliminate deaths for those who have taken it.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +56,000 over the past day for their tally to reach 28,770,000. The US remains the global epicentre of the virus although there is clearly an easing there. But the number of active cases fell overnight and is now just on 9,284,000 and +20,000 fewer overnight, so more recoveries that new infections again. Their death total is rising at a much slower rate and is up at 511,000 (+1000) in one day. The US now has a COVID death rate of 1539/mln, and that compares to the disastrous UK level (1773) where deaths are also still rising a bit more slowly now their vaccinations are rolling out.
In Australia, their community control remains impressive. Their all-time cases reported is now 28,930 and only +4 more case overnight, but with no new cases in the community and the rest new arrivals, and all in managed isolation. 40 of these cases are 'active' (+1). Reported deaths are unchanged at 909.
The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 1.35% today from yesterday and near a new yearly high, although it did reach 1.39% within the past 24 hours. Their 2-10 rate curve is a little steeper at 124 bps and holding high. Their 1-5 curve is also steeper at +53 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is steeper as well at +133 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up a sharp +13 bps at 1.63%. The China Govt 10 year yield is softer by -1 bp at 3.29%, but the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is also up +13 bps at just on 1.65%.
The price of gold will start today up +US$27 at US$1812/oz. Silver is rising even faster with the gold/silver ratio just on 65:1 and now near a seven year low. It was at an all-time high one year ago, so the rise in the silver price has been dramatic.
Oil prices are up by about +US$2 and are now at just on US$61/bbl in the US, while the international price is just under US$64/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar opens at 73.3 USc as commodity currencies twist back into favour, aided in our case by the credit rating upgrade. Against the Australian dollar we are at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are still up at 60.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has held at just over 74.3.
The bitcoin price is now at US$53,528 and -7.2% lower than this time yesterday. It is now well off the record it set about 24 hours ago of US$58,832. Volatility has been extreme at +/- 11.6%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».