Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, where the most interesting move globally has been the forced move by our Government to have the RBNZ target housing. Interest rate rises may become a self-fulfilling consequence.
But first in the US, new orders for durable goods in January rose much more than in December and came in much higher than expected with a +4.5% rise year-on-year. Orders for non-defense capital goods were up an even better +6.8% suggesting boardrooms are investing again.
The number of new regular jobless claims fell sharply last week to +710,000 (a 3 month low) and the new number of people on these claims is 4.8 mln, an equivalent drop. But there were +451,000 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. Both are still large levels but they do seem to be trending lower.
However, pending home sales slipped in January from December and this was an unexpected result. And the prior month's data was revised lower. But they are still well above the levels of January 2020.
The Kansas City Fed's factory survey is the latest regional survey out and that reports activity that is climbing and new order growth. But they are seeing lots of weather-related interruptions.
In Texas, a string of financial defaults arising from their power crisis threatens to start a domino effect in the state, all a consequence of the rocketing up of the electricity price in that period.
In Canada, weekly earnings data shows little change but is +6.4% higher than year-ago levels. This is largely the result of lower-paid jobs falling away however.
In China that are celebrating "the elimination of poverty" and showering Chairman Xi with accolades for the accomplishment.
China is having trouble containing its African Swine Fever pandemic. The outbreak is returning again after not really having been defeated in the first round and the emergence of a resistant strain.
In Taiwan, industrial production is climbing fast, up almost +19% in January from a year ago. Retail sales growth is returning too after lagging for a while, up +3.6% on the same basis.
In the UK, public transport frequency is being reduced as riders continue to shun that form of commute.
Wall Street has turned sharply lower today and restarting their losing streak, with the S&P500 down by -1.9% in early afternoon trade and now at its lowest point in a week. There is a tech rout underway and the rising bond yields are accentuating the downward trend. Overnight European markets were down an average of -0.4%. Yesterday Asian markets recovered as sharply as they fell the prior day. Tokyo was up +1.7%. Hong Kong rose 1.2% and Shanghai rose +0.6%. The ASX200 rose +0.8% yesterday but the NZX50 Capital Index ended its session down another -1.2%. In fact, in four days, the NZ exchange has lost -3.3% and since the start of the month it is down -7.6% in pretty much a one-way slide.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising but at a new rising pace, now at 112,717,000 and up +434,000 no let-up in one day. But it seems to be easing in some notable places in the first world. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,501,000 and +12,000 since yesterday.
More countries (111) have started their vaccination programs. About 221.8 doses have been given so far (+5.6 mln in the past day). There is clear evidence the vaccines are working to reduce or even eliminate deaths for those who have taken it.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +76,000 over the past day for their tally to reach 28,984,000. The US remains the global epicentre of the virus although there is clearly an easing there. And the number of active cases fell overnight and is now just on 9,112,000 and -66,000 fewer overnight, so more recoveries that new infections again. Their death total is still rising however and is up at 519,000 (+4000) in one day. The US now has a COVID death rate of 1562/mln, and that compares to the disastrous UK level (1792) where deaths are rising a bit more slowly now their vaccinations are rolling out.
In Australia, their community control remains impressive. Their all-time cases reported is now 28,947 and only +8 more case overnight, but with no new cases in the community and the rest new arrivals, and all in managed isolation. 30 of these cases are 'active' (-6). Reported deaths are unchanged at 909.
The UST 10yr yield is up dramatically today, up +8 bps at 1.46%. This sell-off now has global momentum, all based on rising expectations for inflation, expectations central bankers can't halt despite their attempted unison jawboning. The US 2-10 rate curve is sharply steeper at 130 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also sharply steeper at +63 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve steeper at +142 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up +17 bps at 1.85%. The China Govt 10 year yield is little-changed at 3.29%, while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield has raced up another +18 bps to be at 1.88%. Recall, it was at 1.16% at the start of the month and 1.02 at the start of the year, so the repricing has been sharp, with the largest rises in the past few days.
The savage sell-off of New Zealand bonds yesterday was after the RBNZ was forced to add housing to its policy remit. Bond managers think the RBNZ will now have no option but to raise interest rates to preserve affordability. And that may have been made into a self-fulfilling consequence.
The price of gold will start today down another -US$31 at US$1770/oz and falling.
Oil prices are marginally firmer and are now at just over US$63.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is just over US$66/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar opens at 74.3 USc with another rise from this time yesterday. It is close to its high more than 4½ years and it has risen +33% in a year. Against the Australian dollar we are holding at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we have slipped slightly, back at 60.8 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now up at 75.2 and also a 4½ year high.
The bitcoin price is now at US$50,827 and +2.4% higher than this time yesterday. It did get up to US$52,076 in between but is drifting lower now. Volatility in the past 24 hours is still high at +/- 4.1%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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128 Comments
Multiple worms are turning, what will central banks do? Let me guess... PRINT! The RBNZ I suspect is now going to go even more unconventional, will we get stimulus checks now like they have elsewhere? We need to stop our dollar from going stratospheric somehow, it would seem an easy way to get inflation...
I so should've got out of my two bond funds: what a disaster. If this continues at this pace within a couple of weeks or less I'll see 11 months of bond gains disappear down the toilet ... I will jump before they go into losses, but not sure whether to pull out today, or if there will be a mini correcting rally soon to catch a breather and then get out.
But bonds are toxic probably for next two decades. They also appear to be correlated to share returns, now, so the 60/40 portfolio is dead.
And increasing interest rates after 12 years of monetary stimulunacy have become a savers disaster because bad for:
Bonds.
Equities.
Property - commercial and residential.
Gold.
No respite in term deposits coz RBNZ FLP means banks won't pass increasing interest rates on. (Disgusting.)
So it's just cash and watch inflation eating your savings away. Although I'm thinking possibly mortgage funds might be the only asset to catch the increasing rates, but watching for bad loans provisioning as ultimately some new home owners and investors won't make it.
And no, you can't put all your savings into Bitcoin.
Seems most banks too reporting increased profits. Unsurprising also their increased spread between mortgages and deposit interest.
FLP will only lend up to 4 or 6% of the banks loan book so sometime that's going to run out. TDs dropping 2 billion per month so im wondering g when bank capital holding requirements kick in where that's going to come from.
New Zealand banks are not reporting increased profits and haven't done so since they peaked in mid 2019. See this. And this.
And banks seem reluctant to draw on the FLP. The RBNZ has made available $28 bln starting in December 2020. So far three banks (one large, two small) have only drawn $1.14 bln on that. The FLP isn't a direct driver at this point and far from "running out".
Yep, the future for bond prices looks very bleak indeed - for the next few years. There is only one way interest rates are going, internationally and in NZ too - up. But personally, I would not go so far as two decades in the future, in being so pessimistic about bond prices. Things will correct themselves as they have always done. Yes, the Central Banks have all but killed the bond markets, but this situation is not sustainable long term and sooner or later the market forces will reassert themselves.
Personally, I am keeping quite some significant liquidity (cash) ready to pounce when the next dip of the sharemarkets happens again. Ready to buy as soon as a 20% dip eventuates - and I think a dip will happen, when the rise of interest rates worldwide starts to bite.
I am not renewing ANY term deposits as they mature - not a single dollar.
I am so tempted to buy into Bitcoin, but I am not going to do it as it is not an investment that I understand and I still see it as highly speculative. My personal view is that Bitcoin will be much higher than it is now, but I do not have the balls (risk profile) to jump into it.
Gold and resources (there is not just gold!) - I would not discount them at all, a bit of them does not hurt in any diversified investment portfolio.
NZ residential Investment property - I would not touch it with a barge pole, not just because it is the most inflated asset class of all, a veritable gigantic bubble with prices that just do not even begin to make any sense, but also for personal reasons (you can call it moral reasons, if you wish).
Great points fortunr .
Like you, since TD rates went sub 2% I've taken every maturing deposit out of BNZ and Westpac to the point there's only one left a Westpac: I did that on principle ... some of it went to bond funds which was great for a year or two, and luckily I halved about 15 months ago, getting destroyed in what's left; some went into Oyster's Direct Property fund. The rest is sitting in Harbour's Enhanced Cash fund which I'm happy enough with.
I did put pocket money into Bitcoin last October, currently 200% return which is ludicrous.
https://chrisgimmer.com/bitcoin-reserve-asset/#:~:text=Portability%3A%2….
It takes a lot to get your head around, but when you do Bitcoin just makes sense.
Im happy to provide a range of educational material if you want further reading :)
To dabble your toes into Crypto the video content (much of it free) on Real Vision is excellent. I spent weeks watching before I put some pocket money in ... which I've certainly not regretted.
And then if you do buy some, make sure you use a legit exchange and you hold your own digital wallet: I used Easy Crypto and an Exodus Wallet.
The Bitcoin main net is a final settlement layer. I.e. once it has been locked in with one confirmation it is an irreversible transaction. The level of security behind this (150 Terra hashes of computing power) means that is should not be used for frivolous transactions like buying a coffee. This does not need to be stored on thousands of hard drives all around the world.
You have to think about the hierarchy of payment systems. Visa and mastercard for example are 3rd or 4th layers of the fiat money systems, where the transaction is not final for even a few weeks and can be reversed. They dont transfer the balances between the banks very often.
The lightning network is a second layer scaling solution that is instant. You open a channel between the two wallets, transact as many times as you like for free, then settle back to the main chain maybe once a month.
Bitcoin is a store of value currently. Being used as a means of payment will come with time and liquidity once the market expands and matures.
There's a contract being worked out among big firms and funds, esp in US, to have Bitcoin as a store of value replacing gold, but Bitcoin will never be a currency used for transactions under at least US and NZ tax law. Way too clumsy when to transact with it you first have to work out profit from each BTC transaction (BTC used less historical cost under FIFO or weighted average) and pay tax on that BTC sale, before you even consider the transaction itself.
So more material to flick through:
Basic overview of the maths behind it, bit out of date but you get the idea:
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
https://www.lynalden.com/misconceptions-about-bitcoin/ and the linked article are great.
Fantastic example of Bitcoin being used as a store of value against failing currencies
https://medium.com/original-crypto-guy/as-bitcoins-price-hits-a-new-all…
Simple overview of some of its properties.
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-cool-but-bitcoin-technology-hot
Great simple breakdown of all the misinformation around Bitcoin
https://www.coindesk.com/podcasts/coindesk-podcast-network/breakdown-bi…
Nice to see someone admit there losses for a change.
Lesson learnt is one we should have known. You can't trust any sort of financial product which is fiat in nature. Bank deposits, bonds or any other fiat based financial instrument can always be destroyed by a government on a whim for whatever reason.
The best place to put your money is in real assets (gold, property, shares) or financial instruments that are backed by a real asset i.e index funds.
Been buying gold for last month ... on 6% loss right now, but I think it's one thing Peter Schiff has right: rising yields (causing gold sell off) is inflation coming, not strong economies, so I think gold will have it's day. Just buying up to hold 3% of portfolio.
Inflation will hit if the velocity of money turns upwards or plateaus. The RBNZ increased the money supply 12% last year. The reason inflation wasn't reflected in this is A) The velocity of money declined essentially absorbing this inflation B) The cpi doesn't reflect the true rate of inflation.
If the velocity of money ticks up or even plateaus then we could get hit with a wave of inflation that even the number fudgers at stats NZ won't be able to cover up. Michael Burry of the big short thinks this will happen. I agree with him
https://moguldom.com/338484/famous-big-short-investor-michael-burry-war…
Further not only is the money supply increasing at double digits it is also accelerating. In 2015/16 NZ m2 money supply y/y increases were 5-7%, they have been going up at 1-2% a year for the last 5 years (are now 12%) I don't think land prices, velocity of money (not included in CPI) will keep absorbing the money supply increases indefinitely I can see a spill over into general goods & the cpi at some point.
Long story short. Real assets are your best bet. The govt will opt for an inflationary blow out over a deflationary retraction.
Or you can do what the US has done and just stop tracking how much money they are printing.....
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
Are you scared yet?
Headline :
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300238808/reserve-bank-govern…
Are they not the same people, when his deputy in September / October came out and created FOMO by announcing that house price will rise further and will support house price rise.
This statement from Mr Orr deputy did create FOMO and now his boss says to be aware of FOMO.
Will be interesting to see interaction between Mr Orr and Mr Robertson as neither wants the ponzi to stop but as have supported to reach to such a level that are now been forced to act ( atleast have to potray that are concerned and seem to be thinking of acting on it - have to show intent at this stage but no action as just showing concern will gave time for few months and hope that may be something happens that will divert attention from the ponzi and may be not have to act at all or again delay taking action) and as neither have intent will bark on each other on public platform and more they bark, more they will expose themeslves.
Classic example of delay was when Robertson delayed the announcement from February to March on housing due to corona virus - has virus just popped up recently or.......
Even if government only think, strong lobbying start to put pressure on government to either not act on it and if cannot stop to dilute it - make it a toothless tiger
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/grant-robertsons-rbnz-policy-change…
They obviously went too far, were warned by multiple people and agencies that they were going too far. They appear to be far too arrogant to have regrets, which is not a good quality in anyone, they won't learn from their mistakes.
It should be clear to all, that they caused the current calamity, over reacted, then were way too slow to respond back. They caused the FOMO, pleading with people not to have the thing that they have caused and saying you don't regret doing it shows arrogance to the point that you believe that you can change the world just by telling people what to do. Again, all poor qualities for people in their position.
The mantra of the RBNZ should be: Set the playing field, react moderately and predictably, don't tell people what to do, make sure your actions are measured and necessary at the time. Be prepared to to reverse course immediately if things go worse or better than expected.
The mantra of the RBNZ is currently: Over react to "head things off" before they become a problem. Ignore reality when it doesn't conform with your world view. Give the market signals to act one way, then tell them off for acting that way and believe that you can influence their decisions by telling them to do the opposite of what you are signalling. Never have any regrets as it would be far too humbling to admit being wrong about anything.
I am not on the same page as you guys on this matter. I am not saying you are wrong or will be wrong, but at this stage I go with a different view.
I think inflation is being overhyped, that it is somewhat of a blip.
It only takes one financial crisis, for which we are overdue, to see interest rates plummet.
I will keep a watchful eye, but at this stage I don't know if I will re-mortgage at 5 years at the end of this year. My current approach would be another one year.
A fall in house prices of say 20% is not too harmful as only a very small proportion have been purchased during the rise of 20%.
Owner occupiers will still be owner occupiers - which is the core thing they want. And 'investors' will lose some equity, but thats equity only recently gained.
I've been asking this question lately, but when I stop and think about it, the number of people who have bought in the last few years must be pretty small. It should be pretty easy to verify who has recently bought their one and only house using IRD numbers supplied purchase, so targeted assistance wouldn't be hard to do.
The thing that gives me comfort is that we're more likely to see the FHB assistance caps lifted which will effectively lock a price floor in the absence of any further, actual intervention by the government, unless they feel like palming that off to the Reserve Bank in the near future as well.
House sales in Auckland about 30,000 in last 12m
FHB are about 18% of market
As a % of total OO, you look correct about a small number have bought in last 2 years.
Are about 330,000 OO in Auckland.
So, if we take 55,000 sales in last 2 years (not exact) in Auckland, FHB are about 9,900 of that.
making them 3% of OO total now.
Sorry, reported instead of reply. Yes, a small number - you could target for possible assistance or subsidised zero-rated loans per the HC Foundation's suggestion. But if we're going to go down this road, let's go the whole hog and completely reset housing back to 3x - 4x income and support home owners who are bringing up families in stable environments - we can get prices back to something reasonable there should be ample flow-on effect for renters as well.
I am decidedly ambivalent about how this would affect investors who have driven price growth while pressure groups limited supply and everyone in between mopped up all the tax free gains they could eat - at the expense of aspiring home owners and renters. Maybe it's time to pay the piper.
Agree 100% GV 27.
If it's a choice between 'We never cared about those locked out of ownership on the way up, so why should we care about those that lose equity on the way down' AND 'we subsided the growth, so we should subsidize the fall(for that very small % you mention), ' then I would go with the later as per the HC report so this can be reversed down to 3x - 4x median household income, and the banks with their now devalued books, still be in a position to lend to FHB. It's no point in getting to a lower median multiple if the lending dries up, although of course, you would need a lot less lending.
This would also pull yield back in real $ terms (but still higher as a % of the revalue at the new median multiple) so there might be also an argument for landlords to be able to depreciate any loss, or maybe not.
Buying a house to live in is a "Stupid purchase"? Sure, make an example of people for making the awful irrational choice of buying a family home because the state failed in its moral duty to intervene over a decade before now. See how stable the country you end up with is and who still wants to live there.
All true, but the example you are talking about is hypothetical as the Govt. won't let the market fall to make that example, so the question is what will/can it do to stop this?
But until they remove land-use restrictions to allow true free market land economics to work (and you can do this and protect the environment, elite soils, etc.) then it is all academic, and there is no sign that they are going to do this.
For all my fan base slagging off my forecasting and using word "oracle", kindly go back to wha I said about the turning point being 18th February. By turning point I referred to housing market mania dissipating and moderating but also to reasons why. Some asked why so specific a date. Well, to give you all a good laugh, it is astrological: Saturn is being squared by Uranus. This occurs 3 times in 2021 and last occurred in 2008-09.
So, not all you enquiring folk who like to examine evidence can turn off and not bother to look at why this square impacts the way it does, because there is no need to investigate what is clearly nonsense: except it works.
Inflation and bond market are now going to bring down stock markets and violently re-price assets of all kinds. So as inflation exceeds wage rises by 3-5% later in the year, what will Mr Orr and the Fed do? Nothing. And that will erode living standards, naturally. And so the cycle turns. Yes, I saw all this well in advance, over 6 months ago in fact. You do not need to forecast house prices, all know they will continue to rise now thanks to all the interference. But the economy, ah well, that is another matter. Inequality and inequity cannot rise forever because you run out of folk to buy the stuff when wages not rising and assets are. Something needs to change, and big. And avoiding that for last 13 years has not helped.
There's a teapot somewhere between Earth and Mars that orbits the sun. You can't see if with a telescope - it's too small. Prove me wrong.
My point is it isn't our burden to disprove your theory. The burden of proof lies with you.
Besides, what aspect of the planets positions affects the markets? Light from the planet doesn't penetrate buildings. So gravity? The people around you have a far greater gravitational effect on you than Uranus.
Planetary influence is not physical, it is correspondence and symbolism.
It takes a long time to look at all this stuff (40 Mars plus) and I cannot explain it all here.
There are 100s of chartists and people analysing market trends in USA especially, you get paid a lot for looking at cycles of time and impacts on asset classes.
It is clear inflation is coming again if you look at what happened in 1971-79.
History repeats for good reason.
mikekirk29...thanks Mike. You just made it clear I do not need to waste any of my time reading your future posts. Stop talking out of Uranus. The Thais thought my kids could give them the winning lottery numbers and after years of guesses they apparently picked some winning numbers. Years after that one lucky prediction the whole neighborhood was still talking about how "my kids knew which numbers would win the lottery". LOL
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/124359736/ecan-endorses-245-per-cen…
Hyperinflation is here by the looks
Government is clueless about housing... actually not as they wanted house price rise to run as was in their interest and that is exactly what is happening so....
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/video/mikes-…
Also if government is clueless, are likes of Mike's expert...does Mike's of NZ, dont want the ponzi to continue.
Government and RBNZ is actually doing what Mike's of NZ wants.
This is a quality site..posting Mike's minute is highly offensive to many of us here!
Reality all of NZ is clueless about housing..we all have jumped in, frown and nod over bbqs about poor FHB, while checking our homes.co valuation each month. The rent lords put up their rents, moan about warm and dry regulations, the wheel keeps turning.
The whole election thing last year confirmed that we prefer the wheel to keep turning, no desire to see anyone involved who might mess with the system. All we need is a little bit of togetherness in the covid fight, and the rest of our troubles can go on being too hard to solve.
How did the fact that the entire FED payment network went down yesterday not even make the news!?!?!?
https://twitter.com/Melt_Dem/status/1364665393810345984?s=20
Literally, one of the key pieces of the entire Fiat monetary system stop operating yesterday and it hasn't even been mentioned?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/24/the-feds-system-that-allows-banks-to-se…
SCARY SHIT:
The FED has DISCONTINUED tracking the M2 Money supply!!
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
I.e they are printing soooo much money they don't want you to see how fast the dollar is being devalued. Guess they didn't want that 2 trillion stimulus print to push up the scales again. BRRRRRRRR
You cant just shrug this off, not telling the public this info is the beginning of the end.....
We do have a rough idea though.
https://usdebtclock.org/
The question we all need to answer is "What does The End look like?"
We all know (even those doing the 'printing') that in earlier times a wheelbarrow load of Reichsmarks or a handful of Zimbabwean Dollars wouldn't buy you a loaf of bread.
So what is it that is going to be in sufficient trusted supply to allow some form of trading to still occur between individuals and nations?
It was and is the US$. I don't see an alternative. So if that holds, at some stage the USA is going to defend its currency at the expense of deflation. In the absence of that the USA, and so the rest of us, falls apart
It's scarcity that puts value into any medium of exchange, and if that Debt Clock stops turning, then what?
Time, as it does on that clock, will tell.
What do you check the 'value' of your Bitcoin holdings against each day? The US$.
You see infinite US$ creation. But what if that stops. All of a sudden. What would the value of Bitcoin be today if 'printing' stops?
As I suggest. At some stage that's a question the provider of the Reserve Currency of the World is going to have to consider.
How is a tour guide to The Pyramids going to charge his customers in Bitcoin to ride his camel?
US$, are just handed over. But Bitcoin isn't going to be a valid or viable medium of exchange for (pick a number) 99% of the population of the planet for a long time; if ever.
An EFTPOS card is an enabler of funds transfer, not a currency in and of itself. A transaction takes a fraction of a second, using a minimal amount of energy each time. All that was required for market ubiquity was for enough terminals to be made available by acquirers.
I'm not big on BTC so quite happy to be corrected here, but doesn't it require an ever-increasing consumption of energy, and a decent amount of time per transaction? These are the hurdles that must be overcome.
Tell me that you looked at your portfolio this morning and thought "OOooo. Look! I have 10 Bitcoin worth 10 Bitcoin!" (or whatever your holding is) and not "Oooo . Look! One Bitcoin = US$ 49,756 this morning!"
If you did then I'll suggest you're in the vast minority of holders.
I look at the price of Bitcoin and go "hell yea, Bitcoin is on sale today, I could get a whole BTC for under 50K!!" And then I proceed to buy more :)
I have a term deposit maturing in a few weeks, but Im borrowing that amount off a friend now so that I can buy a these prices, and ill just pay him back once I get the money.
I actually dont think I will sell my Bitcoin this cycle. It has got to that stage where you have to ask yourself, will I be able to get these back if I sold them...??
there is only 7.2% of all BTC on exchanges and in the last 30 days 43,272 BTC have left exchanges to (mostly) cold storage
https://twitter.com/VentureCoinist/status/1352026524984238081?s=20
One day, we will see an unscheduled press conference from Janet Yellen. Firm, resolute, but visibly crushed by the pressure and enormity of what she is about to say. It will be at first apologetically, and then sternly. She'll clear her throat, readying herself to rewrite the financial trajectory of the world's economies.
"One..." - she'll stammer briefly here. Shuffle her papers. Look down and then fiercely up into the camera. By now, Twitter is melting down. Trading everywhere is halted. Yellen is on the verge of tears. Every network is watching.
"One DOGE" she gets out, and then with determination "...equals one DOGE"
She will pause and steady herself. This time, with conviction:
"One Doge = One Doge".
Finally, shouting, greated by rapturous applause from the huddled media:
"ONE DOGE EQUALS ONE DOGE. NO MORE AND NO LESS. ONE DOGE EQUALS ONE DOGE!"
News tickers everywhere erupt. Elon Musk livestreams himself weeping for an hour with joy. MRNA vaccines for cancer and other diseases are announced, but no one notices. On this day, only one thing matters. Everyone knows the truth now, a truth that many of us have always known.
One Doge = One Doge. And always will.
"1BTC = 1BTC
Change your base of value"
Which achieves what exactly?
Does it suddenly open up more riches / incomes / resources ... jobs?
Nope
Fiat debt is the income for the masses
Unless you expect to lock out the masses ... yet expect the repair man to keep on turning up to keep the electricity lines maintained?
Ok kind of click baity title. They have stopped tracking the weekly seasonally adjusted money supply. The non seasonally adjusted chart is still available.
Of Note is this:
Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts).
Post May they have removed these accounts from their tracking which is pretty significant as when they print money it goes to the money market deposit accounts. "So yea, lets just not include that anymore shall we lads..." The Fed 2020
Bank QE reserve balances at the FED are recorded here-table 1
They are currently distorted downwards by ~$1.44 trillion US Treasury, General Account surpluses held at the Fed.
The RBNZ shows the NZ accounting protocols here.
Ok, I have a really gloomy question. It's been playing on my mind sporadically.
The chance of a nuclear war occurring, or a major populated area of the world being hit by a major meteor, over the next 50 years is low or probably very low.
However, these are still possibilities.
Does anyone know if the NZ government has a plan as to how it would manage the country if any of these kinds of major global cataclysms occured?
Surely there should be a plan?
In the nuclear scenario I assume NZ is not struck, but there might be a handful of strikes on Aus.
Interesting question.
You would think we would have to have a plan, isnt that part of the governments job?
I think it would be: Hide and hope being at the bottom of the world is enough.
The Gerard Butler movie Greenland looks like a fun time :)
I actually think chances of Nuclear war are higher. I dont trust the Chinese, with their lack of morals and bullying attitude, not to actually use them if a war does break out.
I also think we are heading towards another major global conflict. They tend to happen rather periodically and with the way China is acting like they own the place, i feel it is only a matter of time before something kicks off. Which sucks because ill be the one fighting it :/
Yeah one would hope they have a plan, but I am not fully confident that they do....
It would be interesting to know what their plan for a major Wellington earthquake would be. I assume that they have a plan for several scenarios, from minor-moderate impact to major impact. And a plan that is much wider than immediate civil defence responses.
I mean Wellington has the potential to be struck by an earthquake much more severe than Christchurch.
"I also think we are heading towards another major global conflict"
Its guaranteed
Thats what happens when resources get scarce
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/02/25/why-collapse-occurs-why-it-may-no…
For me, the strategic response to China is an interesting one.
Up to fairly recently it was to cooperate, the theory being that with greater prosperity in China would come greater liberty. Of course with Xi's rise it hasn't worked that way.
It's unlikely to go back to the pre-Xi way unless, miraculously, Xi does start going down a different path.
So then the key question is how hard does the west push China? How receptive to compromise through diplomacy is China? If they aren't open to compromise what next? More sanctions and boycotts? If so how productive or counter-productive are those responses? Do the sanctions and boycotts bring them to compromise?
There was no plan in place for a Pandemic and that was a far more likely event than a global nuclear war if they had been tracking the odds, in fact it was almost a certainty if you watched Pandemic on Aljazeera that was only finish a couple of years before Covid-19 erupted. New Zealand will rely on its remote location and also hope that Wellington is simply not worth nuking. I have visited Wellington and its not so we are safe.
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