sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

US jobless claims fall; yields rise at huge UST auction; Suez blockage to take weeks to clear; Canadian housing vulnerable to a big fall; Aussies stand up to China; UST 10yr at 1.62%; oil and gold drop; NZ$1 = 69.6 USc; TWI-5 = 72.2

US jobless claims fall; yields rise at huge UST auction; Suez blockage to take weeks to clear; Canadian housing vulnerable to a big fall; Aussies stand up to China; UST 10yr at 1.62%; oil and gold drop; NZ$1 = 69.6 USc; TWI-5 = 72.2

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of new inflation risks from the dramatic Suez Canal blockage that will upset most global supply chains.

But first in the US, there was a sharp drop in initial jobless claims last week, falling more than -100,000 to 657,000 and the lowest in a year. In addition there were 242,000 Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims filed, also a very sharp reduction. (Interestingly, exactly a year ago, the first of the huge spikes in claims started with almost 3 mln people filing claims then in one week.) There are now 3,870,000 people still on these benefits. This is very much lower than analysts were expecting.

The next regional factory survey, this one by the Kansas City Fed, shows the solid expansion well embedded with strong new order growth. But this latest survey continues the reporting that input costs are rising fast and most firms say they can pass most of them on.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast has the US economy growing at +5.4% pa in March.

The US Treasury had a big bond tender for its benchmark 7yr Note and the yield rose to +1.3% pa and well above its prior 1.195%. US$150 bln was tendered for the US$73 bln that was accepted. Today's result takes the yield back to higher than a year ago after the suppressed pandemic falls.

In the dramatic Suez Canal blockage and shutdown, it is now expected to "take weeks" to clear the problem. The blockage is creating long tailbacks in the waterway, with more than 150 vessels currently waiting in the area to pass. The alternative Cape Town route can add two weeks plus to the journey. There will be a global impact from this problem, sharply increasing shipping costs and container availability everywhere, all adding to an already stressed and expensive problem.

In Canada their housing regulator is pointing out their vulnerability to a downward price correction there. Toronto is the key market at risk, but these risks of overheating are spreading to other cities they say, and the coming correction could be sharp.

In Germany, there was a notable shrinkage in their negative consumer sentiment, a result of the easing of their lockdown conditions.

In China, a different kind of supply chain problem is growing. The boycott of the use of forced or slave labour in making Chinese cotton is seeing Beijing force its ecommerce firms to remove the products of companies who adhere to that boycott. It is an issue that is further fracturing relations between the West and China, and China's sensitivity over the issue (in support of slave labour) is hard to understand except as a challenge to their wounded pride. The Australians have called China a 'vindictive' and 'unreliable' trading partner, an escalation that is sure to draw a response.

After being lower earlier, Wall Street in their Thursday session is flat in early afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets were little-changed except London which dropped -0.6%. Yesterday, Tokyo recovered with a +1.1% rise after the Wednesday drop, and both Hong Kong and Shanghai ended with a no-change result. Both the ASX200 an the NZX50 Capital Index rose +0.2%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising and at a fast pace, now 124,985,000 have been infected at some point, up +555,000 in one day. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,747,000 and +9,000 in one day. Vaccinations in the world are rising fast however, now up to 490 mln and in the US almost 40% of their population (129.3 mln) have now had this protection (+2.2 mln) as they achieve a very fast rollout. The number of active cases there fell yesterday to 7,021,000 (-29,000 in one day), resuming the reducing trend and taking the number currently infected down to 2.1% of their population.

The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 1.62%. The US 2-10 rate curve is marginally flatter at 147 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +76 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is flatter at +160 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is also down -3 bps at 1.68%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.22%. But the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield has recovered some of yesterday's big fall, up +6 bps to 1.59%.

The price of gold starts today back down -US$7 in New York at US$1728/oz.

Oil prices have given up all of yesterday's recovery and more, down -US$3/bbl and are now at just over US$58/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$61.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today even lower at 69.6 USc with an extended devaluation that has now reached -4.0% in just over a week. Against the Australian dollar we are holding at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at 59.1 euro cents. Today's shifts are again all about a rising greenback. That means our TWI-5 opens today marginally lower at 72.2.

The bitcoin price will start today at US$51,153 and down a sharp -8.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 5.9%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

113 Comments

Consultation on the Climate Change Commission's advice closes Sunday. It’s been lost in the media. Here are my question to the CCC:

1) Can we please see the impact of holding population at the current 5.1 million.
2) What cuts will be required when whole of life carbon for a product is included?
3) What about when we include international shipping and air travel?

The CCC recommendations appear to be based on only half the job. While the recommendations might line up with the Zero Carbon bill it seems likely the bill will be modified in time and deeper cuts will be needed. Let’s see what those will look like so we can make informed decisions on NZ ‘s population.

Up
0

I hope this is like the Tax Working Group where they recommended a new property tax based on feedback, then the government duly ignored their recommendations and proceeded exactly as they wanted to anyway.

Government: 1
Public Consultation: 0

Up
0

Given the feedback by Air NZ customers, with a

Up
0

Yes, among other things I will be submitting that significant changes to immigration policy are necessary.
Of course, this is only partly related to climate change.

Up
0

They've gone after low hanging virtue signalling fruit.

Up
0

"It is understood that part of that includes investigating whether the rule change involves a breach of landlords’ human rights, including the ability to own their own properties, and the ability to make money.

Another petition, started by Lindsay Calvi-Freeman, had 6500 signatures on Thursday evening."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/300262320/property-investors-…
Who's signing the petition?

Up
0

All the little pharoahs who won't listen when Grunter finally says Let my People go, while the plagues are being unleashed on the little pharoahs heads. More plagues to come

Up
0

These guys pretend to be the renters friend, doing good for the under privileged of our world, while their rents are often paid or topped up by WINZ, and as the government has correctly identified, deductibility of interest, has tilted the playing field too much in their favour.

Their level of protest suggests to me, that they have become blind to their good fortune, and its time for a wake up call. How would you like it if deductibility of insurance payments removed as well? Learn to be thankful for what you have.

Up
0

I am starting a petition today as my contracting business is not making money - which is a human right and the government are to blame. They need to fix this today - will you all please sign here www.crymeariver.org

Up
0

My partner's tourism business is running at about 1/3 of pre-covid levels. I believe the government should implement a 'tourism supplement' for low income households so they can all afford her services.

Up
0

Oh, didn't realise the government introduced a legislation that taxes more of only your type of contracting business including inflation and the definition of a business expense is thrown out the window :) Jesus is critical thinking dead in this country?

Up
0

I didn't realise landlording was such a productive industry with multiple societal benefits.. oh wait...

Up
0

I failed to realise that residential landlords out bidding FHB's was an act of benevolence. Silly me

Up
0

How else would they be able to rent the place for more than the mortgage repayments are worth?

Up
0

Well, the RBNZ also has special policies that had the result of transferring hundreds of thousands of dollars of my future earnings to people in your business (and I get taxed on them and you dont!), and the government provides special subsidies only to your 'customers' and not to the customers of other businesses - so swings and roundabouts!

Up
0

The specufestor butthurt keeps coming.

Up
0

They just need to stop whining, play the game with the cards theyve been dealt, pull themselves up by their bootstraps and cut down on unecessary luxuries like clothing and dentistry. Its about personal responsibility.

Edit: i I forgot 'dont confuse what you want to happen with what will happen'. All this complaig about whats going to happen is just wasting valuable time you could spend trying to get ahead. Why not stop with the petitions and complaining and become an uber driver in your spare time? Or just don't have children. (If you did already that was a poor financial decision and you deserve to be destitute).

Up
0

I bet a bunch of them waste money on smashed avo on toast and mobile phones. Surely they can cut that out before thinking of hiking rents?

Up
0

I think they may even have to cut back on flat whites and smashed avo on toast; I hear a few are already starting to ride e-scooters in preparation.

Up
0

Try owning a herd. One of the few industries with actual CGT.

Up
0

So you will be signing yes?

Up
0

DIYman- I think the issue is the Government has come out with the easy option of treating the symptom rather than the cause !
The cause is bad Government policy over ( Kiwibuild ) decades and interest rates at a unnecessary low level.
With TD's at less than 1% people have been forced to do something with their money that otherwise wouldn't have.
If they are serious about attacking the demand side what about immigration that even Labour have encouraged over their time.
The current changes are more likely to harm the very people that Labour is suppose to be helping.
Taxing something to fix a problem never works and causes distortions.
The Government appears to be blind to unintended consequences.
I'm all for improving the situation but isolating one part of the issue and blaming them is ridiculous.
Approximately 80+% of rentals are privately owned and 84% of them are Mum and Dad investors with 1 investment property, they are not the problem but are being targeted.
Many of this group will and are getting out of the market that will free up some extra property but the net gain is minimal and on average more people live in rentals than owner occupied.
e.g. couple living with Mum and Dad to saving a deposit or flatting with 2 other couples buy a house you end up with the same number of people across more houses and this is why the supply side is the biggest issue, we need lots more houses !
Their is going to be unintended consequences here of reduced availability of rentals and higher rents which is very sad.
Even the renters association can see that these changes will make things worse for many tenants.

Up
0

How about we clarify the cause correctly. The cause is too many people from excessive immigration. Supply can't keep up....but is not the cause of this problem.

Up
0

Nah sorry, when an existing property can be not making a profit forever because it’s always loaded up with new debt we have a problem. I mean why would anyone get into property if they don’t make a profit? There obviously is a profit and it obviously wasn’t being taxed.

Up
0

Yeah I agree we have a problem, this is certainly a fix for that problem. Now all investors will be making a profit and will be taxed on that profit. I am an investor and I can see the sense in this move from the government. It is actually a bold move.

In the detail, this change will change the market in the short term as intended; FHB's will have more choice as a large number of investors will now not have the servicing strength for new lending. We saw yesterday from the BNZ article the supply is far and away outstripping demand at this moment but of course there is some backlog of demand to get through. Also supply will come on as some investors have to rationalise their investments and sell to reduce debt loading. This is a no brainer as most investors have run high debt levels (and yes leveraged up on their equity) and this cost means they will run at a significant loss, unsustainable for some, undesirable for all.

Rents will struggle to increase too fast in the face of this new supply, both in new builds unable to be purchased by investors and in investors who are selling as they are not able to make the interest payments on their loans.

On another note, saw this in regards to importing fruit-picking folk - https://mashable.com/video/flying-autonomous-fruit-robot/

Up
0

Wonder what percentage of landlords own their rentals mortgage free and have no intention of selling before 10 years of ownership if at all? These new measures will not affect them nor their tenants supposedly? But if the market price for rentals increases it would be tempting for them to follow the trend?

Up
0

According to OneRoof and Valocity one third of NZ homes are mortgage free. But I could not find a split for how many of these are investors rather than primary residences.
(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/oneroof-property-report-just-a-thir…)

The market price for rentals will be interesting, in my experience price setting is a matter of checking the current market rate https://www.tenancy.govt.nz/rent-bond-and-bills/market-rent/ - factor in your estimate of the properties position in that market and put that in the advertising. Property managers generally take care of this process as they are in the market every day.

Last time we set our rental prices we were guided to advertise lower, did and got good tenants. The other set of bold changes this government has made in regards to the tenancy regulations means Investors will take a lower than market rate for a tenant that is going to look after the place and be stable for as long as possible.

Up
0

tks and agree a rental agreement is not all about the rent. A trusting reliable relationship between landlord and tenant is worth mor than a dollar sign. Unfortunately it is the extremes at either end of the relationship that gets the press. We have never owned a rental property but old friends of ours have done so for many years. They run them freehold, usually long term good tenants, not many problems. They are not property speculators, they like to keep things simple, and they will not be fazed at all by these new conditions. In fact as they say they are better off to receive rent and pay tax on it rather than pay interest on a loan and get a tax rebate for it.

Up
0

Shoreman
A good post.
Personally I am not sure of what the wider consequences of these actions will be on the housing market or rents. Investors will be affected to varying degrees with long term no-mortgage investors minimally affected whereas more recent highly leveraged investors more so - the later will be more recent investors and the effect of the Brightline test will impact on their decision. Going forward, with these actions along with LVRs there will be less interest from new investment which should put some downward pressure on the market.
Reaction from landlords towards rent will be varied: however it is fairly obvious this will be putting more upside rather than downside risk to rent increases.
Government actions were needed to cool the market and I hope that affordability for FHB improves.
Unfortunately announcements affecting supply are at best medium term solutions and I don’t see anything to address the current situation with large numbers living in motel units. Shortage of rental properties will continue to put upwards pressure on rents.
Bottom line for investors is that there have been changes - although many long term investors will not have been affected - and like life and any investment one needs to adapt to the changes. Moaning achieves nothing.
It is great to see your post with some analysis. Unlike the emotive posts that property investors are parasites, the majority of investors are ordinary NZders who have a social conscience. Government policies have always been dependent on private investors with Government picking up social housing. Unfortunately it is a lack of provision of social housing over the past 15 years has significantly contributed to the current problem.

Up
0

It won’t take long even at current building rates to house most of those. In our suburb alone there must be 300+ houses being built right now.

Up
0

Shoreman..as long as the Govt takes the sensible next step of pegging rent rises to wage rises I fail to see how this will hurt renters or investors for that matter? Expecting that income from rent rises at the same pace as other peoples income seems fair to me. The Govt will realize and eventually take this step. They are not known to move quickly but they must know they need to peg rents, or as you say, it will have unintended negative consequences on the very people they are trying to assist.
I agree other stuff needs to be done especially in regard to immigration and building more homes but evening out a playing field that has always been so unfairly slanted towards investors is something that should be applauded. Investors should never have been able to claim depreciation or interest and a loophole that allowed tax avoidance is simply being closed, and about time too. If you are an investor, welcome to the real world.

Up
0

KS - I predict the following, hastened from the latest Government changes -
The rental crisis will get considerably worse.
Rents will increase more than had been the case.
Emergency housing waiting list will increase further.
The housing market will take a breather and perhaps take a fall before moving up again.
Like the removal of depreciation, like the ban on Foreign buyers, like the removal of interest deductions the Government will have to look harder to find the next thing to blame and ban.
FHB's will be out bid on new builds by investors.
The housing market will rise further in the foreseeable future unless immigration is paused for years
The Labour Government will be voted out next election from their incompetence.
People on this site will be saying the same old thing.
Have a happy day.

Up
0

"These guys pretend to be the renters friend, doing good for the under privileged of our world, while their rents are often paid or topped up by WINZ,"

Would you prefer paying 300 to 400 per night to moteliers... you are so out of touch

Up
0

" (Property investor Nick Gentle) owns five blocks of flats."
From the comments section:

OK. So you are going to be paying an extra $10,000 per year on your 5 properties. Assuming an average capital value of $750k, and a modest capital gain growth of 5%, you can expect a $37,500 capital gain each year on the properties. Sorry that you will only have an extra $27,500 and not the full $37,500. With 5 properties that is only $137,500 per year of gains rather than the $187,500 you would have been making before the change. Sorry you are having it so tough ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/300262320/property-investors-…

Up
0

bw...yes poor Mr Gentle. Everybody needs to make it very clear that we are expecting the RBNZ to ban interest only loans from May. Why haven't the RBNZ provided banks with notice to prepare their systems (as he did with negative rates) so that are able to automatically change all loans from the day of his announcement in May? He needs to provide urgent clarity to provide fairness to investors who will also have time to prepare for the change in May.

Hopefully there is also a ground swell of support for pegging rent rises to income rises, which would be fair for landlords and ensure the poor do not continue to pay more and more of their wages in rent.

Also the Govt needs to look at the problem of unoccupied homes and Air B n B in urban areas. The number of people forced into motels (at huge Govt expense) in Rotorua while the city is home to thousands of (usually empty) Air B n Bs that could be used to help people in need perfectly illustrates why something must be done. Like with drug dealing, when the actions of some are having a huge negative effect on society then these actions cease to be a right and need to stopped in the interests of the common good. It is not all about freedom for the drug dealer to do whatever they want with their drugs but rather how we can prevent the drug dealer doing harm to our community. And everything that causes serious harm to the people of NZ needs to be viewed in the same manner and that includes empty homes.

Up
0

Let me also add voice to the chorus. Property investors should never, ever be able to get interest only loans ever and I expect them to pay fair share of the principal not dig into any loopholes by able to circumvent this by paying $1 or something ridiculous. RBNZ, Orr, this is the very least you can do. You caused this mess, NOW is your time to act. Also scrap the funding for lending program. What a stupid idea that was.

Up
0

Please remember there is a case for interest only loans - when you are adding to supply and you need cash up front to develop a subdivision/subdivide your land and/or build new housing with the expectation of selling it. In these cases a property investor (who becomes a developer?) should be able to get an interest only loan. Think about how this works... I plan to subdivide my 1ha of land into 10 sections, but to do this work, I need about $1m up front to do all the surveying work, resource consents etc before I can even think about selling any sections. The 10 sections will sell for about $3m and will cost an additional $1m of ground work once I have resource consent...

As you can see, in this case the loan needs to be "front loaded", lots of cash up front, with it being paid off as the sections are sold. The banks assess these and will give interest only loans if they think it's a good plan and the market will buy the sections etc. As there is no cash flow for the developer, they need to be able to minimise their interest payments. If all interest only loans were banned, then there is potential the PI/developer could not get the loan, therefore won't add to supply. Banning all Interest Only loans might be shooting yourself in the foot. Yes, Interest Only loans should be banned for existing housing, but not on new developments.

Up
0

Gentle said the Government would have been better to require a larger deposit or ban interest-only loans if it was concerned about borrowing.

Banning interest only lending will effectively double the mortgage outgoings for many Landlords, pushing them well under water.

Up
0

If you owned the home you are living in and have an investment property for retirement, it shouldn’t impact you as much. If it does, sell up, save up and start again.

If you own 10 houses and are whinging, well tough, sell a few, settle your debts and live on. Housing is basic need for humans, yet landlords make it about greed. With record low interest rates and people being let go of jobs, we should have really seen a reduction in rent but all we saw was greed in full swing. Great to see them feel uneasy, that’s how we have been feeling for decades just to own a single roof over our heads.

Up
0

Nzdan..If they are genuinely talented business people they will find a way to survive.

Up
0

New FHBs are taking on 30 year mortgages at 30% of their incomes and will need dual incomes for almost all of that, kids, career setbacks, redundancies, illnesses etc be damned.

If owners have to go 'underwater' after years of creaming it off inflating values that made prices unaffordable for everyone else... well, sometimes investments have risks. Sometimes they don't work out. FHBs are too busy trying to bail themselves out of the mess that investors created, so find someone who might care and tell them. They might have some ideas about how landlords can cope with the same reality they've forced on everyone else.

Up
0

JFC... It was obviously a good idea if it has upset them this much.

Up
0

Makes me laugh, the sudden concern about his renters not being able to save for a deposit.

I must have missed his petition when house prices went up $100k in a month.

Up
0

How much did rents drop by when interest rates hit historic lows? Can someone remind me?

Up
0

Two fifths of sweet duck all.

Up
0

Dropping rents back then would have mucked up all the maths. It would have meant property prices staying static and ROI being the same.
That's not in the script.....

Up
0

GV27 - Quite right landlords benefitted from lower rates, timing dependent of what length fixed rate their were on and will help mitigate some of the reduction of removal of interest reductions.
However they have been stung with a lot of costs around the Healthy Homes bill.
This clearly is not a bad thing to improve rental accommodation but it must be remembered that NO owner occupied house had to spend the money and upgrade to the same standards. Double standards again by this Government.

Up
0

"This clearly is not a bad thing to improve rental accommodation but it must be remembered that NO owner occupied house had to spend the money and upgrade to the same standards. Double standards again by this Government."

What a load of crap. If I go to any hospo business whether accomodation/restaurants etc there is a requirement for minimum standards to be met. Do you expect the government to enforce the same standards for how I cook my food at home?

There will always be a requirement for rentals but when PI's become the reason more rentals are needed, ie outbidding FHB's then the trend needs to reverse. You can use crocodile tears to claim some moral high ground but the current situation is untenable. If rents spike higher now but decrease over the long term as a result of PI's getting out then that's a good thing.

I find it pretty disgusting when investors are able to outbid FHB's for a property then rent it to the FHB and claim they're providing a much needed service. Pure self-centered greed.

Up
0

How is it a 'double standard'? Do you also think its a double standard that there are hygiene standards for restaurants but not for private kitchens?
One is providing a service to customers, the other is not. Thats why there are different standards.

Up
0

al123 - The Health Homes is to encourage a better outcome for the average Kiwi which is fine but there plenty of Kiwi's that live in their own damp cold poorly insulated privately owned dwelling what about their health ? thats the double standard mate !

Up
0

There's no law against me eating raw chicken in my own home - why did the government complain when I set up a food truck serving the same??? I didn't force anyone to eat it.

I'm sure you'd agree there should be a minimum habitable standard a landlord has to provide (maybe a functional roof? > 90% walled? Closable doors?) we're really just arguing about the extent of the rules.

Up
0

A lot of costs what a ridiculous statement. A heat pump and insulation wouldn’t even be 1% of the value of the business. And both are just a one off (I guess the heat pump may need some maintenance and eventual replacement). Try running a real business.

Up
0

If landlords were 'stung for costs' by the Healthy Homes Bill then they weren't providing accommodation that was habitable - am I meant to feel sorry for them? Compliance costs for landlords who had healthy, insulated warm homes would have been two thirds of bugger all. Can you point out who I'm meant to feel sorry for here: the landlords who charged huge rents for sub-par accommodation, or the people who were stuck paying the rent and who were living with sub-par accommodation?

Up
0

Yeah but in 1925 they didn’t expect luxuries like insulation and heating and toilet paper.

Up
0

Many landlords go without those things even today. Leaves or old newspapers are all that are needed.

Up
0

Yeah times are tough when you are only making 100k a month tax free capital gain per property.

Up
0

Indeed, I suspect this would be considered a sign of success, if Labour are smart.

Up
0

Awesome, where do recent FHBs sign to hand these idiots the bill for the extra we had to pay for our first homes because they'd spiked the prices so much? After all, surely that affected my ability to own my own property, right? Or does it suddenly not work that way for some reason?

Up
0

The property industry is now a massive lobby group with a huge war chest, our print media is bought and paid for by their advertising spend and their operatives are ever present on our TV screens. They are a clear & present danger to our democracy IMO. This is the price we've paid for the malinvestment involved in providing unlimited funds for people to buy and sell the same houses to each other for ever escalating prices. We have a skewed and distorted economy that some very wealthy and influential people have a vested interest in keeping skewed and distorted.

Up
0

Lol those silly Canadians still haven't figured out that housing only corrects upwards.

Up
0

That little collective fallacy doesn't exist in the rest of the world

Up
0

Remember back to 2015, when Labour's Phil Twyford was blaming escalating house prices on people with 'Chinese-sounding names'? We've moved on from that now: I think Covid gets the blame these days.
But maybe the real culprit is all that imaginary money that governments keep printing, showering on banks, and begging them to lend to would-be property owners to compete with one another and drive up prices.
Interesting parallels between New Zealand and Canada, who was blamed back then, and where the finger's pointing now:
https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/what-blame-chinese-crowd-missed-about-van…

Up
0

Brock...Jacinda is the female version of Justin Trudeau in almost every way and most people cannot even comprehend how insulting it is to say that about somebody.

Up
0

Blackface for all of peoplekind!

Up
0

International war of words with China continues to escalate. Australia buoyed one would think with support from the recent meeting of the quad. As an aside, does anyone in this nation seriously think that the Westpac operation in NZ, in the event that it is sold, should be taken over by a Chinese bank?

Up
0

Of course it should be taken over by a Chinese bank. Imagine how diverse we would be able to signal we are.

Up
0

Brock... as long as the status quo remains, Westpac NZ would be a good strategic buy for The Bank of India.

Up
0

Try and purchase a Retail Bank in China. See how far that goes.

Up
0

I would like to see the Government move its banking to Kiwibank or at least that section be bought from Westpac by Kiwibank. But no overseas ownership please.

Up
0

I would like to see the government move their business to Kiwibank as well, this seems a no-brainer but I assume the Treasury function at Westpac has a scale that Kiwibank does not?

Re the government funding Kiwibank to takeover Westpac, this would seem to need a significant change of approach from them, the current level of faith the Government has in its operations (read low capitalisation) does not appear high. The significant spend down the loo on failed core system upgrades has not helped this confidence I suspect.

Re China taking it over, given HSBC has been active in some segments of the mortgage market (choosy on the segments) this may not be that unlikely. "There were 247,770 people identifying as being part of the Chinese ethnic group at the 2018 New Zealand census, making up 5.3% of New Zealand's population."

Up
0

Philby...I would like to see NZ aim all four of these Australian monsters out the door and deal with the international damage to our reputation as best we can.

Up
0

Be careful what you wish for.

All we may need is one state controlled and owned bank. No competition fixed rates etc

Up
0

How do we have competition when the state controlled bank (reserve bank) provide an oligopoly funds at the lowest rates possible to pass onto customers.The 'competitors' then set margins between lending and borrowing that allow them to pay executives > $1,000,000 in wages?

Up
0

Will go nicely with all those Chinese estate agents selling nz houses to Chinese immigrants.

Up
0

da taste of sour grapes.

yum yum

Up
0

No, just people getting tired of being taken advantage of.

Up
0

$40 odd Bill borrowed and over a year to prepare. Winter is going to be interesting.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300262252/new-zealand-hospitals…
https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/

Up
0

Does anyone know what's actually causing this at this time? It's not winter yet, the population hasn't particularly grown in the last year, no particular outbreaks I'm aware of. Is it low staff numbers due to lack of immigration? Lack of funding? Just an aging population with growing needs?

Up
0

Obesity

Up
0

I don't doubt it's part of the picture, but are we that much fatter than the last couple of years? Maybe the country is still carrying lockdown weight..

Up
0

The other factor is our healthcare system is always near capacity/over capacity. All it takes is a small change in some unknown variable to cause a crisis.

Up
0

mfd - have a play around with the mortality link. Excess mortality has been running high since November. Undiagnosed illness due to people being scared off going to the doctor? Any mortality deficit over lockdown has been wiped out.

Up
0

We encourage all this migration but haven't invested in the infrastructure to support it. Housing included.

Up
0

Yup obesity. Its probably the biggest issue in our society along with affordable housing. Completely ignored by the powers to be on the grounds of "political correctness"

Up
0

yep..mental health is a major. These types keep coming back, self harm, phantom issues, suicidal threats. Massive problem I hear.

Up
0

Bad news alright. Not sure whether its worse now or just more in the open.

Kids today seem to have so much more to cause anxiety etc. Future of the planet, lockdown bullying etc.

Either that or the education system is drumming resilience out of them.

Up
0

donny...Jacinda, no tax on soft drink, Adern. Another way she ensures continuing huge inequality of outcome for Maori and PI, while pretending to champion them.

Up
0

It's ok. Fluoride in the water is the WHO neurotoxin everyone needs

Up
0

What else do you do when poverty of parenting results in severe tooth decay despite education etc.

You can always filter it out i think or remove via distillation.

Why put whatever we put in bread to reduce birth defects, why use a largely untested vaccine for Covid?

Asking for a friend.

Up
0

The RNZ are reporting it as understaffing meets post-covid chronic health issues being seen to.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/439170/new-zealand-hospitals-in-cri…

Up
0

Just think of the funds the government would have to direct to primary services if we had a comprehensive capital gains tax.

Up
0

And another billion plus if we stopped feeding the Paris accord.

Up
0

"sharp drop in initial jobless claims"..... MMnnn

Yes - Just ANOTHER 650K on top of last weeks 700K, the week before 750K etc etc...

Things are really on the up!!

Up
0

I go by these shadow stats because they take into account people just giving up (not registered unemployed anymore):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UTdRrEPPuI

Shows currently 25.8% unemployment, which is Great Depression level.

Up
0

Come on man! Sleepy Joe's policies are working.

Up
0

The Australians have called China a 'vindictive' and 'unreliable' trading partner, an escalation that is sure to draw a response.
Indeed:
Australia Dangerously Dependent On China's Fuel Exports As 2 Of Its Last 4 Refineries Close
Sinopec Signs Liquefied Natural Gas Deal of 2 Million Tons per Annum with Qatar Petroleum

Up
0

Yes it seems our old mates across the ditch are admirers of the Black Knight (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs). Economic self-harm excepted, I like the cut of their jib, not so much virtue-signalling as actually standing up for what you believe in. They could do with a bit more of this in dealing with their nz born, aussie-bred, criminals rather than firing them back to a place where they have no support.

Up
0

Is the US any better?

Quad has started to Quarrel .
US Will 'Expel' India From Quad if Delhi Buys S-400 Missile Systems From Russia, Warns BJP Lawmaker - Sputnik International Link

Up
0

WoW, So much of noise : https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/300262320/property-investors-…

And this is when the house prices are at all time going up between 30% to 60% in matter of months and now, just a thought that it may stop going up further is upsetting too many - understandable as who does not like making easy and fast money that too mostly Tax free.

FHB who have been screwed and still are, should also have a strong voice.

House Price will not be impacted much by current action as interest rates are very low AND only way forward, if want to control ever rising house price, is to try and stop cheap and easy flow of money that many speclator are opting for through interest only loan to support their flipping activity.

If Jacinda Arden is serious, should ask Mr Orr to act fast and why did she gave time till May and allow herself and RBNZ to be pressurised and be open to be manipulated unless she has no real intend and her announcement for May was just a show.

Up
0

The way speculators and so called ivestors along with everyone who are afraid that house price rise momentum may stop are crying, shouting, kicking and showing their frustration only suggest :

The this action may have affect on house price ponzi, which many are underestimation and who will know better than the perpertrators of ponzi

OR

Are going overboard to put pressure on Government and RBNZ to stop taking further action on the announcement of DTI and Interest Only Loan, if so than all this hues and cries will continue till may when possibility of announcement.

Up
0

Anyone else noticed how hard the Herald are pushing this story. Government housing changes: 12-house landlord reveals plan to defeat state, avoid extra tax
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

Up
0

A bit stupid to tell everyone isn’t it. Maybe someone should bring up his plan during the consultation process so it can be prevented.

Up
0

Whatever they do someone will devise a workaround.

Up
0

The extra 16k a year is fairly small if you have 12 rentals. Akin to a small rise in mortgage interest rate. Raising the rent by $30 a week for each one at the next review ought to cover it too. I mean rents do go up naturally anyway.

I think in recent times landlords like this have found themselves in a very sweet spot with very good returns and have probably been looking to expand their portfolios. They probably couldn't really believe their luck however the government noticed and took the steps it did.

Up
0

Global supply chains haven't been this stuffed up since early 2008. It really does feel like a precursor to another GFC.

Up
0

NZ Funds Growth fund has allocated 5% of its fund to bitcoin.

Up
0

Nice work NZ Funds Growth - showing some smart leadership there.

Up
0

Not surprising that it was the best performing kiwisaver fund in 2020 then.
Great to see.

Up
0

I know where I am shifting my kiwisaver to (what little is left of it after buying the house).

Up
0

Why argue over whether the housing calamity has been caused by ridiculously low interest rates, ridiculously high immigration settings, ridiculous taxpayer subsidies, a chronic undersupply problem, ridiculous attitudes of NZers towards investing in the productive economy, or the ludicrous policies of Central Banks in deliberately blowing asset bubbles to create a daft short-term 'wealth effect'?

The correct answer when determing how we got to this point is 'all of the above'!!

Up
0

We don't wish to be definitive , but we are looking to the possibility of opening a travel free bubble with the Cook Islands ( who've not had a single case of Covid-19 ) maybe some time in May .... we are beginning to work on it .... Ms Waffle Waffle , NZ PM .... be kind !

Up
0

New Shrub have reported that some landlords are banding together to put heat on the government , by threatening to evict their tenants on the coldest day of winter ....

.... given the brain dead idea of Robbo to disallow their interest payments as an expense , one can hardly blame them for being livid ...

Up
0

It is the time for heaps of NZ nationwide landlord business to join forces. Demand a direct subsidy into their account, as part of 'essential providers' - Iwi, Corporate, Companies, Wages all received a nice subsidy from last year, cool enough even to reach the 'profit making level' - so, the voice of landlord will be taken seriously here.

Up
0