Breakfast briefing: House price distortions spread globally

Dairy prices hold high; IMF reveals higher growth levels for key economies; US job openings surge; Canada house prices leap; RBA watching Aussie housing; UST 10yr at 1.66%; oil and gold higher; NZ$1 = 70.4 USc; TWI-5 = 72.8

7th Apr 21, 7:19am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news the focus might be going back on to global house price distortions as both Canadian and Australian regulators show signs they, like New Zealand, are worried about what their pandemic QE has done to these asset prices.

But first, the overnight dairy auction was essentially unchanged by holding on to most of the gains from the sharp jump two events ago. Recall, it rose +15% then, then corrected down by -3.8% at the prior event. But this time those net gains have been held. This justifies the raising of the farm gate milk price forecasts over this period. Over this period, the net rise is +11.5% in US dollars, but with the retreating NZ dollar, it is +14% in local currency. This time the key WMP price was unchanged, and the SMP price rose +0.6%. Butter and cheese prices were up about +2% from the prior event.

The IMF has upgraded its global growth forecasts, based on new large fiscal support in a few large economies, especially the US. Global growth is now projected at +6% in 2021, moderating to +4.4% in 2022. The projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the ones they released in October 2020. The vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021 is also a big factor, and they point to "continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility". They also say "high uncertainty surrounds this outlook", so perhaps we shouldn't rely too much on these guestimates.

They now say the US will expand +6.4% in 2021, the EU +4.4%, which China will expand an impressive +8.4%. Japan is a laggard at +3.3%. They expect Australia to expand by +4.4% and New Zealand by +4.0% this year.

In the US, job openings in February surprised on the high side, not only coming in higher than for January, but higher than analysts were expecting as well, and a two year high. It was a faster hiring rate that brought the gains, with quits and separation rates unchanged.

In Canada, Toronto house prices surged to new record highs on record volumes sold. In Vancouver, the surge was even greater, with last month’s sales up +72% above the 10-year March sales average.

After dipping worryingly in February, the private Caixin services PMI for China improved in March with a solid rise. Even so, it is not a vigorous expansion and lower than what we are seeing elsewhere. And unlike elsewhere, this report isn't highlighting cost increases.

The RBA has left its key interest rates at a record low 0.1% at its monthly board meeting, while warning it is monitoring developments in the heated housing market.

And staying in Australia, the number of job ads jumped +7.4% in March from February, and those February levels were revised higher. (Year-on-year they are up +40%.) This data is now highest level in more than twelve years (since before the GFC) and is pointing to further sharp declines in the Australian unemployment rate.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is flat in early afternoon trade. European markets were up an average of +0.7% overnight, but London was the outlier, rising a very strong +1.3%. Yesterday, the Shanghai market ended flat, Hong Kong was up a very strong +2.0% while the very large Tokyo market closed down -1.3%. The ASX200 rose +0.8% yesterday, but the NZX50 Capital Index fell -0.7%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising, now 132,024,000 have been infected at some point, up +476,000 in one day. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,865,000 and +9,000 in one day. Vaccinations in the world are still rising fast, now up to 679 mln and in the US almost 50% of their population (165.8 mln and up +2.2 mln in one day) have now had this protection as they achieve a very fast rollout. The number of active cases there fell to 6,870,000 and down -34,000 overnight.

The UST 10yr yield is down -6 bps at 1.66%. The US 2-10 rate curve has flattened noticeably to 150 bps. Their 1-5 curve is flatter at +82 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is flatter at +164 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is down by -6 bps at 1.71%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.23%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is down by -3 bps at 1.80%.

The price of gold starts today up +US$17 from this time yesterday at US$1743/oz.

Oil prices have risen overnight by about +US$1 and are now at just under US$59.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$63/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today marginally firmer at just on 70.4 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are softer at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are also weaker at 59.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 opens today a little lower at 72.8.

The bitcoin price will start today at US$58,262 and down -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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170 Comments

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 7:27am 1617737274

NZ Taxpayers, having funded a year of MIQ at the cost of hundreds of millions of dollars for Kiwis who didn't even live here pre-Covid19 and the real risk of lockdowns that came with it, are now being told "you're on your own" even when travelling through a dual-government-sanctioned travel bubble. Sorry, that's not good enough. Either it's safe enough or it isn't. We've had a lot of finger-wagging about people having an unalienable right of return, and now the default for NZ-based NZers is.... tough?

by Brock Landers | 7th Apr 21, 7:43am 1617738189

Why do you think it's not "safe"?

MiQ and lockdowns only exist to ensure that the boomers live to collect the rent another day, in the spirit of user pays perhaps they should be footing the bill?

by printer8 | 7th Apr 21, 7:42am 1617738133

Brock
Maybe on your way to work today you need to look around at the roads, the civic buildings and facilities and other infrastructure and consider as to how previous generations have provided those things for you now to use.
Its just that your boomer-blaming is coming across as a spoilt "me, me, me", unappreciative, caring for no body but yourself.
And maybe think about how government Covid response actions may have just kept you in that job.

by northman46 | 7th Apr 21, 7:53am 1617738782

But don't dawdle on your way to work Brock, you've got rent to pay!

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 8:05am 1617739535

That'd be the congested roads, overcrowded hospitals, non-existent rapid transit and other such things that boomers let crumble while they imported population pressure and then ramped demand for housing they curtailed supply of through central city NIMBYism? Those self-less, caring, forward thinking boomers?

Also, the only reason the government's Covid response worked is because everyday Kiwis played their part.

by two otherguys | 7th Apr 21, 8:26am 1617740817

Are you referring to the self-less, caring, forward thinking boomers that the GenX, GenY, GenZ voted into power

How many of the current crop of 120 MPs are boomers?

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 8:51am 1617742276

Given the level of enthusiasm for meaningful housing and tax reform, I'd say most of them qualify as honorary boomers.

by Carlos67 | 7th Apr 21, 9:31am 1617744662

Groan the anti-boomer brigade are getting on my wick. Perhaps you would prefer to live in a cave ? Man you guys don't know how good you have got it. Now is the peak of civilization and its only going to get worse from here. Perhaps you think it was better to be born in the early 1900's with a couple of world wars to fight ? You guys make me sick to be honest.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 9:39am 1617745158

If living in a cave means you get to spend your days fishing and hunting and not worrying about your landlord putting up your rent then yes please. I'll take the cave.

Human suffering hasn't improved based upon the modern capitalist ideal. Its just created another form of suffering.

BTW - it works better if you tell younger generations the future is going to be better. Having older people tell them that the future is going to be worse than it is now might just be enough to push them over the edge from their moderate depression about how things are to completely losing faith and doing something stupid.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 9:56am 1617746193

Well technically things have improved. Since 1950 each person now can expect to live approximately 15 years longer.
( https://www.stats.govt.nz/tereo/topics/life-expectancy )

I agree human suffering has not changed as it is experienced individually and therefore will be set by a persons psychology.

People talk about poverty in this country but having lived in India for a year and had staving children knock on my car's windows for money daily, I think we could do with changing this to talk about relative wealth instead.

by Carlos67 | 7th Apr 21, 1:27pm 1617758823

I hope so IO, they can do something stupid like bugger off to Australia.

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Apr 21, 9:47am 1617745630

No. The peak was the post war 60s era, where 1 income supported a family of 5 in their own home, a car and no work on weekends.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 9:59am 1617746342

Yes. Very much this. Enabled by a pre-bubble-of-everything price environment. This all changed with the introduction of inflation which was triggered by the removal of the gold standard and accelerated by the oil shock.

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Apr 21, 10:21am 1617747671

When it was decided we need to live beyond our means and the FIRE economy was born

by AKLCrusader | 7th Apr 21, 11:01am 1617750107

I grew up in that era.
Nothing opened in the weekends, you had to go to a dairy to get a loaf of bread (hot bread only arrived on sundays at the dairy). Supermarkets only opened one late night (if that) and in Chch only New Brighton opened in the weekend (but had to close Mondays to make up for it).
It was almost impossible to buy a modern car if you didn't have overseas funds, TV's were a luxury, a handmower for a 1/4 acre section standard, travel was modest and local, flying to australia rare and only for the wealthy. Kids got caned at high school, strapped at primary school.
Holidays were always shut down by aggressive industrial action by airline, ferry or railway workers, inflation was a thing, you had to save a 50% deposit to buy a house.
I don't remember it fondly.

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Apr 21, 11:52am 1617753157

That sounds awesome! An equitable society where actual workers were rewarded and had time to spend with their families.

by frazz | 7th Apr 21, 10:55am 1617749736

You can always toddle off Carlos - Sydney looks nice?

by Carlos67 | 7th Apr 21, 1:31pm 1617759099

I think you read my comment wrong Frazz, New Zealand is awesome. Basically I retired at age 48 and have now moved to Tauranga. Sure it took some totally different lifestyle choices to the rest of the people living here to be able to do that but basically you cannot have it all.

by kpnuts | 7th Apr 21, 2:08pm 1617761292

hate to dampen your bubble -- but the boomers are not the disposable generation -- and they are still the doctors, teachers and surgeons that the country needs -- and when they all retire -- will plunge the countrys healthcare and public services into chaos -- as your millennials and gen y for that matter had no interest in being public servants in serving others and their communities --

there is a 20 yr gap betwen 30-50yr olds -- that wont be filled by the younger generations - who all want to get rich now -- and cannot be filled by the boomers and gen X for much longer - check out the stats on GPs' -- in five years time you will be begging for the boomers and Gen X to come back and prop up the health services and education, social welfare etc.

And yes -- response only worked because Everday Kiwis did what was right -- but beware -- by the third lockdown - our younger generations were out socialising and ignoring warnings -- so lets hope we get through another four months -- whilst hte slowest vaccination process in the world actually happens -- i think the last figures were over a million vaccines in teh country but still less than 100K delivered -- appalling

And yes i work in Healthcare - and yes my NGO offered the services of some of our nurses with vaccination qualifications to help - but were rebuffed !

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 2:15pm 1617761723

Cool - you work in healthcare. You'll appreciate that it might not be an appealing career for young people given the hours required when matched with earnings that are a fraction of what Kiwis could earn in Aus. It wasn't young people who set up a health system that poorly paid employees, or a civil service that created more roles for policy wonks and paid them a premium while teachers and nurses had to strike for weeks to get single-digit percentage increases per year. You'll also appreciate it's much harder for a young person entering your workforce to scrape together things like a house deposit on those same low wages. Again, not their doing. A lot of your post seems to be blaming young people for not giving over their time and energy into a system that someone else broke before they were even born and that isn't going to give them the same lifestyles that older NZers who worked in those roles were able to enjoy - I'm failing to see how that's their fault.

by murray86 | 7th Apr 21, 2:19pm 1617761985

Wasn't the boomers either GV. It was the Doctors being greedy that drained the Health pot leaving f -all for the nurses! Health system managers are also paid much more than other areas of the community.

by kpnuts | 7th Apr 21, 2:38pm 1617763094

you can say that about every industry -- earn more in aussie - but right now $27 an hour for care workers -- just a L4 qual as of the ist July -- pretty good starting rate to get into an industry - and it always paid less as did teaching or nursing -- we chose the careers because we wanted to contributed to society -- and our generation valued us for that contribution =-

Oh and i agree -- the system sucks -- but it was created by bureaucrats and governments- not Drs and Nurses - and if you work like i do in NGO world - -we are not filled with useless overpaid managerial and paper pushing roles -- thats a myth

And i dont think its todays teens and early 20s -- its the late 20s - to 40 that are the issue -- that is the generation that has walked away - -barely manages to work full time - but has grown up expecting the house garden car foreign holidays as a right in life -- without wanting to do the hard yards -

by tooting | 7th Apr 21, 5:52pm 1617774761

Agree.

by Hans Brink | 7th Apr 21, 7:36pm 1617780981

Just read in the Whanganui Chronical that 50% of local GP's intend to retire within the next 5 yrs. Hard to find one now.

by frazz | 7th Apr 21, 10:56am 1617749791

Yes as you drive over the Auckland Harbour bridge think of all the Boomers who didnt pay for it, but instead of budgeting for a new one to replace it past use by date brought a rental property (and still moan about congestion).

by Nzdan | 7th Apr 21, 10:14am 1617747255

Despite saddling the younger generation with student loans if they want to work in a middle class job, we also expect their tax dollars to fund superannuation thanks to the scrapping of the "soviet style" superannuation scheme in the 1980's. But of course, there's just not enough tax dollars to make superannuation a viable living income so Boomers also expect the younger generation to top up their retirement through rent or capital gains.

by Brock Landers | 7th Apr 21, 8:08am 1617739738

Thanks printer5, it seems I touched a nerve and I would love to indulge your silly fantasy, but one look at the lousy salaries and woefully underinvested infrastructure around here and I chose to dedicate my talents to working from home for offshore clients.

Unfortunately for you, my life is not filled with commuting and gratitude to the government for some god awful "job".

Now why don't you go ahead and elaborate on what, exactly, I "blamed" the boomers for?

by redcows1 | 7th Apr 21, 8:41am 1617741666

You mean the infrastructure that they inherited debt free and saw the waste that it was so added a bit of leverage to buy more infrastructure. Leaving it substandard and indebted for the next. Tauranga being a superb example.

by printer8 | 7th Apr 21, 8:17am 1617740238

Brock
Since my post I see you edited yours to include rent.
Get over your boomer blaming - most of those who have been leveraging to buy property in the past five years plus are more likely to be generation X.
There are considerable number of young people out there doing very well; your comments clearly suggest you are not one. Looking for a scapegoat and moaning and blaming achieves absolutely nothing so you need to get off your chuff and do something.

by Brock Landers | 7th Apr 21, 8:05am 1617739553

Ok boomer.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 8:32am 1617741178

P8 - my experience is that younger people are far more productive than boomers in the workplace. Most boomers have no incentive to work hard (because they own the house and a rental). Young people have the incentive because they can’t afford to lose the job.

Many boomers show up to the job and can’t even connect their laptop to the printer or the wifi - while the young person rolls in and writes new code to improve the efficiency of the s/w the company uses.

So I’d be careful about bashing younger generations about getting off their butts as my experience is that younger people have much better work ethic than the boomer generation. The boomers generally just get in the way and disrupt the productivity of many NZ businesses.

by Roger the dodger | 7th Apr 21, 8:41am 1617741699

It is my observation that inter-generational bashing has always happened.

Both parties are invariably both right and both wrong. Both are wasting their time.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 9:32am 1617744738

It is my observation that throughout history, when those with power and money fail to act with wisdom and humility, and with the good of all of society in mind, democracy and society fail.

Generally it is the older generations who have the power and the money in our current society so the ball really is in their court. Will they act with wisdom and humility?

by Comyn | 7th Apr 21, 4:08pm 1617768492

You blame the older generation for everything or just some things? It's hard to see your point ? What are you trying to say? people born in a certain time in NZ, who were holding down a job, looking after familys, maybe struggling, domestic problems, health issues were meant to be aware of 40 to 50 years in the future? Some got houses to rent out for retirement and now your upset with them for doing that. I find that bizarre. If your point is FHB should have priority then heck yeah I can understand.

Or do you mean population growth, crowded city's, war, disease, traffic congestion are all their fault too? Are you blaming the older generation on all the bad stuff/ society issues you encounter in your life. Do you see nothing postive at all from any older folk in your life? Maybe angry the world is not utopia and everyone is not equal too. Well life is not fair...However look's like you firmly believe your generation will forge the new age of enlightenment. Like John lennon song right? Imagine if all the people...

I'm sure though the next generation will be talking/writing like you do and blaming all their problems on you too. I'm sure you will tell them "no! It's the boomers fault I tell ya, the horrible, evil power hungry boomers! But they are going to say "whatever zoomer!, you suck and your old, our young generation know everything and we going to sort it out".

by Carlos67 | 7th Apr 21, 9:33am 1617744825

I agree Roger you have to play the cards you are dealt, stop blaming others for your position in life.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 10:13am 1617747233

Or those in positions of influence (usually those with capital and political power) do the best they can to make sure the deck of cards isn't rigged in favour of one group of people compared to another.

I.e. one group takes all the aces but then still wants to play poker with another group using the same deck of cards then wonder why they don't want to play! But them mock them for having bad attitudes and not joining in the rigged game.

Soon after that either the rules of the game change to make it fair for all new players, or the deck of cards gets burnt (see history).

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 10:14am 1617747262

I am not a boomer but to use your analogy it would be the boomers that constructed the cards and the card game.

I agree that the current game is now almost over for new players but old players don't live for ever.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 10:25am 1617747940

True - one just then needs to hope they are born to a boomer who has a few aces. If not, good luck right?

And what happens if you need the ace now to keep playing and not in 20 years time when the boomer dies and you already find yourself 60 years old and life has passed you by suffering through terrible conditions because one group held the majority of the aces and didn't want to share them during your lifetime. Is that desirable? Are there better ways to set the rules of this game?

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 12:27pm 1617755243

Life is very much about good luck is it not? But yes the game must be re-set, this governments recent property policy is a fine start I think.

by frazz | 7th Apr 21, 10:58am 1617749882

Yup impossible to get a seat at the table now..but according to Carlos that's the deck we have been dealt with?

by CrispyKahawai | 7th Apr 21, 8:35am 1617741314

Why is it so difficult for you to understand that people who are 'doing well' can also see how unfair and unsustainable the 'system' currently is? I'm doing extremely well (easily top 0.5% of earners in NZ) and am disgusted by the attitudes, by and large, of property investors and the various FIRE parasites around them. I don't want to live in a country where those with assets call the shots at the expense of those without. It honestly blows my mind that most people don't seem to think this way.

by Fritz | 7th Apr 21, 10:00am 1617746406

Jane Kelsey's 'The Fire Economy: New Zealand's Day of Reckoning' (2015) is near the top of my reading list.

by rastus1 | 7th Apr 21, 10:50am 1617749416

That does look interesting -

"We have a shallow economy that depends on FIRE, farming, post-earthquake reconstruction and immigration. Periods of sustained economic growth in the 2000s have been fuelled by cheap credit. As a consequence, households, farmers and the country sit on a growing mountain of debt. Trading in property has become the main source of easy wealth, creating repeated incipient property bubbles. We have most of the preconditions that have been identified as triggers for a crisis"

by Philby | 7th Apr 21, 12:38pm 1617755915

And now we are in position because of covid to rethink what sort of place we want but I do not hear this NON-boomer government talking about this they talk more about restoring what we were doing precovid. Just like climate change no discussion on population size. This the fallacy of worshipping GDP and not wealth per capita or quality of life. It is interesting that during covid our current account balance has been better than before maybe tourism and the education industry add to GDP but are otherwise negative to our quality of life.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 10:21am 1617747684

Greed is primarily a manifestation of fear - I'm worried about the future therefore I need to act in self interest now, even if that is damaging to other people....my personal gain is more important than the well-being of other people.

I mostly feel sorry for people who have got wrapped up in the euphoria of the housing bubble. Many I know who have got into the property investment game have ended up divorced (at least in the group of people I know). The greed brings out the darkside personality traits Jung talks about - and that appears to have negative consequences on peoples personalities and relationships.

by Rob Reid | 7th Apr 21, 12:30pm 1617755456

Reported in error

by imhenry | 7th Apr 21, 2:14pm 1617761671

Go back to which ever Planet you descended from Comments like yours show your low intelligence level

by MortgageBelt | 7th Apr 21, 7:52am 1617738725

Exactly GV, many of these so-called kiwi ‘returners’ have never lived in NZ, or settled in NZ - they obtained a residency visa years ago and live elsewhere.
The trans Tasman bubble travel should be treated the same way as travelling NI to SI.

by Tom Valen | 7th Apr 21, 8:39am 1617741583

Why hasn't the government collected the money from those in MIQ, as it said it would? We've been lied to yet again! They are only interested in optics, JA is a PR guru & an extremely cynical 'crisis manager'. In fact, you can exclude the 'crisis' part of that. She is a steely corporate manager feeding the plebs a load of spin-doctored BS. She projects manufactured empathy from behind a carefully cultivated facade.

by redcows1 | 7th Apr 21, 8:46am 1617741993

What I fail to understand is why the government would need to micro manage this collection. The relevant ministry should be doing it automatically.
Infact it's something that's bugged me for the last 31/2years that the well paid public servants seem reticent about actually doing the obvious until pushed.

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 8:53am 1617742432

They make sure they get their cut of my student loan repayments each fortnight, without fail, even when my income plummets due to a Level 4 lockdown. Meanwhile, Trump suspended federal loan repayments for six months and Biden is looking at writing off $50K of student debt at a federal level as part of an economic stimulus. Ardern is looking frankly Thatcher-esque in comparison.

But actual, user-pays MIQ during a global pandemic? Nah, too hard.

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Apr 21, 9:25am 1617744342

But you see GV, jet fuelled tourism is what's saving the economy and the environment, not silly tertiary education. You clever people and your intelligence - where do you get off??

by karl seastrand | 7th Apr 21, 9:10am 1617743407

Tom...They should have to pay for MIQ up front. Put it on the credit card or borrow it if you don't have it.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 10:25am 1617747911

Agreed, I think it might take a week or so to set up lol (https://www.anz.co.nz/business/manage-your-banking/receive-payments/fas…) but there is bound to be a working party that needs to be set up to report by... (insert variable amount of delay here)

by karl seastrand | 7th Apr 21, 9:05am 1617743104

GV..even worse really. A huge amount of these "kiwis" were not born kiwis and if we had been sensible enough to be a bit more discerning about who we give citizenship to the bill would have been massively lower. The possibility of situations like this occurring should be factored into our immigration decisions if we wish to make decisions that are in the best interests of NZ.

by alittle | 7th Apr 21, 7:36am 1617737779

The pain that this Ashley Church is going through for Tax changes affecting investor :

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/39221

Our sympathy with him.

by Brock Landers | 7th Apr 21, 7:41am 1617738097

His army of specufestors are doing the Lord's work. God bless.

by Quiet Desperation | 7th Apr 21, 12:04pm 1617753896

They do actually believe that. Revolting hypocrites.

by Quiet Desperation | 7th Apr 21, 12:05pm 1617753935

by stuart786786 | 7th Apr 21, 7:42am 1617738166

Ashley Church: Around 40% of Kiwis rent so why are landlords being punished?

Why no one asking with same pain :

Around 90% speculators fuelling speculative activities through interest only loan so why no ban on interest only loan?

by Brock Landers | 7th Apr 21, 8:32am 1617741143

It's a self answering question.

by theglc | 7th Apr 21, 8:42am 1617741739

because it would be nice if some of those 40% could one day afford to buy their own house

by redcows1 | 7th Apr 21, 8:48am 1617742122

Actually it's 50% of adults living in rented accomodation. But obviously he'd prefer the better looking/minority figure.

by JimboJones | 7th Apr 21, 9:19am 1617743973

JimboJones: Over 50% of Kiwis work so why are employees being punished? (I assume by punished he means paying tax)

by murray86 | 7th Apr 21, 7:46am 1617738375

A thoroughly biased, emotive article by a vested interest. It makes no mention of the fact that potential FHBs are blocked from the market by investors, or that the 'social service' provided by private landlords is largely provided to a trapped sector of the market who are unable to save, and are barely surviving, due to the exorbitant rents charged by those landlords.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 8:18am 1617740280

Yes and apparently if landlords ‘leave the rental market’ the house they rented evaporates into thin air like a magic trick!

It doesn’t become available for a FHB to buy and live in!

So do landlords believe that a majority of property investors can afford to leave their rentals empty - I.e zero income for the foreseeable future? How do you value something with no cash flow? Now that’s speculation..

The threats they make are like a dodgy cartel threatening the people of the state. And those people just want a home to live in and raise a family.

by Advisor | 7th Apr 21, 9:10am 1617743418

Social media is full of petitions and rally plans from speculators who have been wronged by the state and a few even demand that their 'constitutional right' to own homes be returned to them.

by Fritz | 7th Apr 21, 9:13am 1617743585

DGMs!!!!

by Quiet Desperation | 7th Apr 21, 12:14pm 1617754474

They are looking into whether their human rights are being violated, as they lock ever increasing numbers of people into renting for life. It's truly pathetic.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 10:32am 1617748362

The hand wringing from Church is hard to stomach I agree.

The recent legislation is a good attempt to change the course of the housing market - it is well intentioned and I think a fairly good effort that will have an effect. What won't be solved quickly is the housing shortage, but changing the ownership of the existing housing stock and slightly lowering the overall price are a good start.

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 8:37am 1617741477

murray...
I agree that Ashley Church has a bias... and his stuff may not be worth reading. And...

That picture u paint with your narrative seems really biased as well ... to me..... Paints an unnecessarily dark picture.
Apply the same logic to the commercial realm... Do u perceive Commercial landlords as blocking business tenants from ownership.? Do u perceive Commercial landlords as charging exorbitant rents..? ( who is to decide if a rent is exorbitant..? )
Are businesses barely surviving because of the rent they pay..?
Are business owners who rent.... a trapped sector..?

Everyone is quick to blame property investors/landlords.... but who will take the blame if we end up with a growing shortage of available houses for rent, as property investors are forced to leave the mkt. ?
( some will say that , that cant happen because a FHB will buy the house from an investor...AND I'd argue that it is not that black and white. )

Id argue that housing as a social service is the job of Govt. Rather than accomodation supplements , the Govt should have been building more state Homes... They have not been doing this for a long time... ( see page 3 of linked doc.) https://kaingaora.govt.nz/assets/Publications/OIAs-Official-Information…

Rather than painting Property Land lords as the evil ones.... I'd suggest Govt. has failed us by not tieing in their immigration policy with a social housing/infrastructure policy... over the years.
( It seems , to me, that prev Govts. unspoken policy for GDP growth, pre covid... has been immigration + private sector credit growth.)

by murray86 | 7th Apr 21, 9:13am 1617743602

Roelof, the commercial market is generally a different beast, but in very general terms, yes commercial landlords with their cost ++ tenancy agreements do make it hard. My own explorations into leasing a property for business shocked me as to the costs ( managed to piss off the owner when I laughed at him and suggested he was dreaming!). For the few friends I have who own their own business's, I always advise that they do what ever they can to own their premises. My own and those friends experience is that accountants generally advise to lease as the lease costs amount to a tax deductable expense, but when broken down to actual costs, it is still cheaper to own the property if you can, and a few have made that jump and reckon they should have done it earlier.

Yes successive Governments (as far as my awareness is concerned - starting with Helen Clark's Labour one) were very neglectful, but the true greed lies firmly with the landlords (it's the market don't you know?). The banks have just been lazy.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 9:19am 1617743996

There's a difference between people farming and legitimate business operations/commercial real estate. And thus is the crux of the issue. Society would function perfectly fine if the vast majority of residential landlords left the market. As it has done so in the past.

by karl seastrand | 7th Apr 21, 9:39am 1617745194

IO...Exactly and judging by some of his previous posts this is not lost on Roelof. It seems he is (trying to) spin to fit his narrative. Owning commercial property is not contributing to making it more difficult for kiwis to have the safety and security of purchasing their own home. Purchasing investment properties should be strictly controlled and limited in the same way as purchasing opiates and bulk tickets to events are controlled and monitored and for the same reasons; to protect our society. Our mindset, laws and regulations need to change so that property is no longer viewed as an investment but solely as a long-term place of safety and security in which to live.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 9:54am 1617746057

Absolutely - what scares me is the delusion on the FB property investor pages and lobby groups. They actually see themselves as the 'good guys' who are being persecuted and that they hold all of the power in society. They just don't realise they aren't needed. Society would function perfectly fine if their group disappeared. It might be a hard road for them to wake up to that fact.

by karl seastrand | 7th Apr 21, 11:37am 1617752278

IO...Ashley Church even sees himself as the good guy in his support for a political regime (Israel) that has separate roads for different ethnicities, bans certain ethnicities from holding certain Govt and military positions and disturbingly imprisons children as young as 12 without trial for years. Anybody who publicly supports such a racist and oppressive regime is clearly absolutely devoid of any morals and principles whatsoever. As a senior member of the property lobby he is in good company.

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 10:13am 1617747181

Karl..
Not so much fitting my own narrative.
My view is that the home rental market is totally legitimate.. ie.. there is a demand for rental homes.

I can see the greed and impact that unfettered demand from property investors can have on a market, in regards to price.
I also see that it is rising prices that Property developers respond to. ( there is information , in prices.. It tells developers where, how, why to build , because it is the information of supply vs demand ..etc ).

I tend to favour the ability of a market economy to respond to the forces of supply and demand.
AND... I also see that a market economy is not a "God" and is not always appropriate. ( eg the way the mkt economy values the environment ).

I'm not really a believer in price controls... and heavy handed regulation.
I agree with Dale Smith that it is, largely, the regulations and rules around Town planning and the RMA that are more responsible for unaffordable housing , and a shortage of housing, than any property investor will ever be..
I agree with Dale that the relationship between raw land values at the urban boundaries and the price of land in the inner centres is a very meaningful metric.

In regards to land prices.... for me, that is a function of the devaluing of money, the growth in population demand and the appropriating of value from the infrastructure investments we make as a society, the utility value ... (eg...roads, schools, airports, etc etc..)
This has nothing to do with a greedy property investor... in my view

by karl seastrand | 7th Apr 21, 12:00pm 1617753630

Roelof...based on your assertions I presume you support meth dealing and ticket scalping as there is also a demand and the market could respond to the forces of demand and supply in the same way? The reason why drug dealing and ticket scalping is illegal (or very very strictly controlled to be more accurate) is due to the damage they do to society. Locking more and more FHBs out of the market has a far more negative affect on NZ society and hence the reason why a long-term "investor disincentivization crusade" is in the interests of the average kiwi. By making property investment the only game in town through insanely unfair tax breaks and compliant banks being given free reign to recklessly gamble through irresponsible lending we have created a monster. Now is the time to sever the head of the snake and the "investor disincentivization crusade" should be an integral part of the game plan. Houses will not disappear, rents will not increase (unless we allow it), houses in urban areas will not become unoccupied or become Air B n Bs (unless we allow it). Many investors will become collateral damage but that is not reason enough to delay.
And of course we need to build more homes and reduce demand by consigning mass "net negative migration" to the mistakes of the past.

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 9:50am 1617745827

Io..
"people farming".... what on earth made u use that term.
The reality is that all of it is symbiotic.
Businesses are employers...who have employees.
Employees rent homes as well as own homes...
Are u going to argue that employers should get out of the way and allow employees to become self employed..?
if commercial landlords charged less rent... employers could pay more wages.... ( lets attack commercial landlords )
The commercial world exists within society... ie. the world of people....
As far as I know... there have always been landlords..? private and commercial
there is nothing illegitimate about a Landlord who rents out a house..

How would u know if society would function really well without landlords..?
Do u think the state will provide for all.. in regards for people who can't buy a home , or dont want to.
Last I heard... there has always been a waiting list for State housing..??

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 10:05am 1617746701

Ok then everyone can become a people farmer then and society will be great ;-P

But then if everyone is an 'employer', who actually does the work as the 'employee'? I.e. who is actually productive within a society.

Its not the landlord - they just take the wages from other people then use the equity in one home to buy more homes so they can take more peoples wages! Its a dark, unsustainable trend that is going to have very bad financial and social outcomes.

I personally don't see it as a legitimate business model. Many disagree, but they tend to be people farmers who spend their time collecting other peoples wages for doing very little.

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 10:32am 1617748361

IO.
What is a people farmer..?

It is possible for employees to have equity stakes in a business..

If I was Prime Minister.. I would not allow interest payments to be a tax deductible expense... for anyone. ( phased in over time ).
( Our economy, over time, would slowly deleverage )
That way business would be incentivised to raise capital by going to the "people" and offering equity stakes.
This might be a far better way to share the "economic pie".
Question is... would ordinary people step up and take the risk... ie.. risking their money for an equity stake in a venture.

Not everyone wants to be, or is cut out to be and entrepreneur..
Not everybody wants the hassle of maintaining and owning their own home..
What on earth is wrong with someone owning a property (house) that they rent out.?/

just my view..

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 10:43am 1617749029

I fear you won't see the issue until it's too late if you can't see it yet.

(and you know what a people farmer is....)

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 10:59am 1617749971

I'm only human... the more I know the more I see how little I know..,

I don't know what u mean by .. "a people farmer'.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 11:27am 1617751665

If that's your narrative then ignorance is bliss and enjoy the time you have left.

The next generation will address the issues.

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 11:49am 1617752978

no .. ignorance is not my narrative.
What do u mean by people farming.?

my best guess is that it is some kind of derogatory labelling .?

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 12:24pm 1617755098

Only derogatory if you view being a farmer as an inferior trade. I don't think it is.

by karl seastrand | 7th Apr 21, 12:04pm 1617753899

Roelof..what is wrong with it is that it reduces the chances of a FHB getting into their own home. Simple.

by redcows1 | 7th Apr 21, 8:34am 1617741275

"In New Zealand, the overwhelming bulk of rental accommodation is provided by the private sector. "
To true Ashley. And judging by the number of homeless and the percentage of the median wage it takes to pay rent they/you are doing an absolute s#$t job of it and need sacking.

by karl seastrand | 7th Apr 21, 9:26am 1617744383

alittle...why isn't the great Ashely Church pointing out that "looking at the evidence of the last 40 years" there are far more kiwis being forced to rent than ever before. Every decision that is made needs to be predicated on getting more FHBs into their own homes and renters not being forced to pay 40% of their income for accommodation. It seems clear that a long-term, multi-pronged "investor disincentivization crusade" should be part of a sensible Govt approach. Let's do this.

by powerdownkiwi | 7th Apr 21, 7:42am 1617738121

"The IMF has upgraded its global growth forecasts, based on new large fiscal support in a few large economies, especially the US."

Excellent. We're in super-intelligent hands, obviously, so what could possibly go wrong? All you have to do is inject debt, then project growth. How could I have missed this simple way to circumvent the Laws of Physics?

Brilliant.

by bw | 7th Apr 21, 7:48am 1617738494

Eventually sense comes knocking on the door of even the most civilised of us.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14556912/shocking-pics-paris-streets-tras…

And speaking of the IMF...

The International Monetary Fund warns that a rebound in interest rates in the United States could cause a “disorderly” unwinding of inflated global asset prices – such as Australian housing.

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rate-rise-a-risk-to-asset-prices-imf…

by fortunr | 7th Apr 21, 8:13am 1617740022

Regarding the "disorderly” unwinding of inflated global asset prices", this is a real possibility.
I see that a possible future scenario would be a collapse of house prices (currently the most inflated asset class, in my opinion) followed by an emergency re-loosing of monetary conditions. I feel that the Central Banks have now dug themselves into a huge hole, and that they will have to "firefight" emergency after emergency in a series of desperate and contradictory moves. They have critically unbalanced all major economies and now a more realistic repricing of existing asset classes and a re-normalizing of monetary conditions is going to be a real, potentially explosive challenge. If they are not careful (or lucky!) they might end up finding themselves at the mercy of market forces that they would not be able to effectively control any longer.

by frazz | 7th Apr 21, 8:17am 1617740225

The Fed - the worlds lender of last resort -what could possibly go wrong?

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 8:19am 1617740365

I’ve been tempted to buy one of George Gammons ‘End The Fed’ hats

by Ezy | 7th Apr 21, 11:09am 1617750579

This crack-up boom link needs to keep getting posted on this commentary https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/crackup-boom.asp

by theglc | 7th Apr 21, 9:06am 1617743166

I would say stock markets and cryptos are equally as inflated as housing, not to mention all the zombie companies living from old debt to new debt.

The governments have lowered rates to keep everything on life support whilst printing money to infinity, which was always going to be inflationary and pressure interest rates up. They think they can inflate the debt away without anyone noticing, but they cant.

The Biden admin has announced another $2T in infrastructure spending, that is $3.9T already after just 4 months. The scary thing is currently the US pays half a Trillion $ per annum to cover interest costs, That is approximately 1/6 of their tax take. When interest rates rise, then that will increase. Who is going to bail them out? Argentina 2.0?

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 8:22am 1617740563

Asset price = cash flow / discount rate.

The discount rate (aka interest rate), which history suggests will regulate over time, will put serious pressure (or even decimate) asset prices.

by two otherguys | 7th Apr 21, 8:20am 1617740446

Yep, look at the unconsumed energy being turfed out on the streets of Paris
look at the second picture
https://www.thesun.ie/news/6806564/shocking-pics-paris-streets-trash-ma…

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 10:49am 1617749352

I can just imagine how you received that wisdom!! As you are at pains to point our growth now in real terms is an illusion, but the distribution of existing assets is still of interest to those in play.

We are most certainly talking about the re-distribution (to the degree there is any left given the existing disbalance) of wealth driven by the asset holders. We have reached (maybe some time ago) where all we have left is the circle of dilution of existing value, creation of pools of asset value concentration (stranding the asset-less) and leverage for the next round. (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/11/dangers-of-stock-diluti…)

by Tom Valen | 7th Apr 21, 8:33am 1617741214

Houses are now a form of currency in their own right, as central banks disappear down the rabbit hole they've created by sending interest rates negative and by 'printing money'. You'll see more and more of this as fiat money debasement continues unabated: stocks, property, PM's, Bitcoin / Crypto's - all becoming a kind of hard currency as confidence in fiat craters. After the GFC none of the reckless financial criminals who caused it were jailed - they were instead bailed out, and we've been paying for it ever since. When GFC II rolls around, we need to jail the reckless central bank whack-jobs who killed our financial system in service of their gigantic monetary science experiment.

by Fritz | 7th Apr 21, 8:43am 1617741828

When do you think GFC part II will hit us? I have been thinking 2022 for quite a while.
But the silliness might extend a couple more years before crashing down...

by Tom Valen | 7th Apr 21, 9:00am 1617742832

So around 2022 to 2024 then....sounds about right.

I'll get my book out as soon as it hits:
'The Failure of Central Banking: how The Federal Reserve and their global brethren killed Capitalism stone dead.'

by Fritz | 7th Apr 21, 9:14am 1617743694

Haha nice. It's going to be interesting reflecting on all these years of silliness once the crash comes.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 10:57am 1617749846

Yes it will certainly be one of my "onion on my belt" stories :) in future. This period will be met with disbelief in future generations.

by Ezy | 7th Apr 21, 4:28pm 1617769739

Why not buy Bitcoin now and tell those stories to your grand-children from the flashest apartment in the underground bunker!

by Carlos67 | 7th Apr 21, 1:39pm 1617759573

By 2030 we are going to have more important things to worry about on this planet than money. Nobody will care less if GFC II comes after this.

by Tom Valen | 7th Apr 21, 2:07pm 1617761271

The Sun will fizzle out?

by bw | 7th Apr 21, 8:54am 1617742497

I can't quite translate the placards, but I'm hoping they won't read as Adrian and Jacinda in due course...
https://tinyurl.com/wamyr67r

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 8:57am 1617742657

tom..
As I see it... Fiat money has lost its "store of value" quality. ( one of the reasons for Central Banks existence was to maintain the "store of value aspect of fiat money)
Just like in the 70s' , everyone is placing their wealth in things that really are a "store of value.".
Property...art...classic cars...collectables.... land..etc..

Nobody wants to blame Central Banks, for increasing asset prices ... far better to blame the likes of property investors... speculators..etc?

by Tom Valen | 7th Apr 21, 9:03am 1617743028

There's no 'blame' to be ascribed when it comes to cause and effect, only understanding.
Central Banks deliberately inflated asset prices through their actions in order to cause a purported 'Wealth Effect'.
This is as simple as 1 + 1 = 2.
We are just living with the consequences of deliberate actions taken to distort markets.

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 9:08am 1617743294

tom.... well said.

by ham n eggs | 7th Apr 21, 9:33am 1617744790

"deliberate actions taken to distort markets ..... TO PROVIDE INCOME (ie to keep the energy train flowing via shale etc)

they have no choice
its Full collapse or kick the can
Economies to scale and supply chains cant do LESS
noticed how there are a few businesses complaining about what LESS business does to them?
noticed how the GOvt has to plug a hole with Billions in deficit spending?
this is what facing the market looks like without intervention
we are in overshoot, our natural resources are tapped out

by murray86 | 7th Apr 21, 9:19am 1617743987

"Fiat money has lost its "store of value" quality" Why Roelof? Any FIAT currency's value is based on many things, but most of all it is backed by a Government and central bank. So it's true value is more aligned with, in the first instance, the standard of governance of the country, the level of resources for that Government to access, and so on. Secondly it's value is adjusted by the international view of the above, and perceptions of risk and international "usefulness". By comparison what backs cryptos, or other forms of currency?

by frazz | 7th Apr 21, 9:59am 1617746362

It only took Bitcoin half a decade to achieve legitimacy as a new global currency. It has attracted more value, study, and investment, which in turn attracted more value. Entrepreneurs have built and continue to build entire infrastructure and industry around Bitcoin because it has become a globally accepted and unforgeable digital money.

by theglc | 7th Apr 21, 10:59am 1617749982

sounds like you go to crypto church on Sundays

by Ezy | 7th Apr 21, 11:31am 1617751875

The central banks require more faith than crytpo right now. Throughout history various governments have debased and replaced fiat, but there's never been a decentralised global ledger available for the population to flee to until crypto. If you think Adrian Orr is the messiah who will save us all, and that crypto is a flash in the pan you simply haven't done your research. Just ask yourself why gold has been steadily heading downhill since August 2020 in the face of one of the largest capital flights to assets in history due to QE. Answer: Bitcoin has replaced gold, and it's not functioning as a long term store of value anymore.

by ham n eggs | 7th Apr 21, 1:38pm 1617759499

"but there's never been a decentralised global ledger available for the population to flee to.."

how exactly do you do the fleeing?
for what purpose?

If you think that crypto is some sort of messiah , you simply dont understand the problem

by Ezy | 7th Apr 21, 4:22pm 1617769362

Flee is to flight as mess is to messiah - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalflight.asp

by Tom Valen | 7th Apr 21, 11:34am 1617752042

The question to be asked is: has Bitcoin successfully established itself as something a significant portion of the human population consider to be valuable? As of right now, it has.

by The Person | 7th Apr 21, 12:24pm 1617755058

define significant portion? 0.0000005%?

I would define it at more like 10%, in which case, no bitcoin has not established itself as something a significant portion of the human population consider to be valuable.

by Tom Valen | 7th Apr 21, 2:09pm 1617761360

Every religion has had to do it's time as a cult.

by frazz | 7th Apr 21, 3:20pm 1617765634

So 1 Trillion dollars market cap not enough for you? Gold total is 10 Trillion..so when BTC well on its way. (Gold had a 5000 year head start)

by frazz | 7th Apr 21, 3:01pm 1617764461

Bless the meek and the baby Jesus

by rastus1 | 7th Apr 21, 1:13pm 1617758027

How big is the btc military complex?

by Ezy | 7th Apr 21, 4:36pm 1617770164

By the same logic, the answer is "yellow".

by Carlos67 | 7th Apr 21, 1:45pm 1617759926

Simple question Frazz. What is Bitcoin currently worth as a percentage of the total Global Fiat currencies ? I think Bitcoin needs to be put in perspective. You cannot ignore the fact that Bitcoin is still tied to Fiat and also apparently a large chunk of the 21 million Bitcoins have been "Lost".

by frazz | 7th Apr 21, 3:05pm 1617764754

1 Trillion and your last point needs more detail - many coins are in storage rather than lost?

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 10:22am 1617747774

murry...
I'm talking about ability to hold its value... a dollar today is worth a dollar tomorrow or in 10 yrs...
A money that is functional , has 3 qualities in my view.
1/ medium of exchange
2/ unit of account
3/ store of value

We are reaching a point where noone wants to hold cash as an asset, beyond transactional needs.. ie.. we all see that the world is printing more and more Fiat money .

Bitcoin is not quite there as a money, in my view.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 10:33am 1617748399

This is why Dalio is concerned about the future of the USD. Thinks there could be high inflation in the future (as people try to get rid of the fiat currency). And that there could be a run from the USD, which may in turn create capital controls, rules against holding cryptocurrencies and gold/silver in order to force people to continue to use the fiat currency. It could become a real mess quite quickly if people start realising just how badly the value of fiat currency is being eroded.

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 10:37am 1617748650

I agree...
Price controls, Capital controls, rent controls, wage controls, illegal ownership of gold..etc
theses are all the kind of low hanging fruit that Govts. will use when it suits.
And Of course... they will continue printing money, while at the same time blaming Landlords, unions, Capital flight, greedy businessmen, speculators ..etc..etc

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 10:46am 1617749204

We appear to be trending towards some form of communism - not free market capitalism.

But I don't think we have free market capitalism regardless.

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 11:10am 1617750642

I agree
Over the last 40 yrs our version of Capitalism is what I'd call "debt capitalism" with a big dose of "Crony Capitalism".... Not good.
Not..so much, free market Capitalism.
If I look at Communism around the world...It seems to evolve into some form of "crony Capitalism". (The power structure, entrenching its hold of power.)

Seems to be only small moments in history where we have, what might be called an egalitarian society with a political and economic structure that supports it..
just my view

by Ezy | 7th Apr 21, 11:42am 1617752562

And this is where crypto shines. Argentina is a case study happening right now, where the government are tracking down their citizens assets. There's a joke in crypto about losing your keys in a boating accident. But when you can put $1B on a USB stick or memorise your wallet seedphrase and restore your fortune anywhere, anytime at your leisure it is impossible for a central government to seize your assets without consent. Just try doing that with $1B dollars of gold, or a property portfolio, or any other traditional centralised asset class. Make no mistake, a crack-up boom is coming, and governments will use the OBR and more to use your assets and wealth to pay for the consequences.

by rastus1 | 7th Apr 21, 4:25pm 1617769545

..good luck with the water boarding. You have just argued for gold.

https://nltimes.nl/2020/02/02/violent-robbery-bitcoin-trader-included-w…

by Ezy | 7th Apr 21, 5:18pm 1617772716

Sounds like that absolute legend didn't give up his secret keys given that they water-boarded him then went on to drill several holes in his foot.

But otherwise good point, personal protection is a problem only the extremely wealthy need to consider. My preference will be for ex NZSAS personnel - well trained and generally good buggers. Thanks for the well wishes.

by murray86 | 7th Apr 21, 11:38am 1617752313

IO could this ultimately lead to the unwinding of Bretton Woods? Going back to a standard - gold or otherwise that sets the value of a currency?

Edit addition; in considering the diversity of this discussion through opinions and experience, it is clear that the need for people to be able to invest to have a decent life style demonstrates several things; first the utter failure of national and global economic systems to ensure all benefit, and the chaos the results when economic systems (and those who control them) fail to account for the increasing desperation of the masses, and any delay by governments to ensure their constituents are catered for only results in further chaos, and deprivation.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 12:30pm 1617755425

Was listening to the latest update from Dalio and he's sounding more and more concerned about the legitimacy of the USD as a store of wealth. Bullish on China and the possiblity of a shift in the reserve currency status. If USD loses reserve currency status expect an exodus of people willing to hold it/trade it so people will attempt to buy anything they can to get rid of it and there is trillions and trillions of it circulating in the world. He thinks there could be very high inflation if/when that happens.

Yeah not sure about a Bretton Woods as who is going to agree with China that the yuan becomes the new reserve? I doubt this will occur without a significant war or struggle of some type.

by Rob Reid | 7th Apr 21, 8:26pm 1617783985

I think there is another phase to come - govts enticing us to transfer our fiat into CBDCs - don't need another Bretton Woods for that.
Then, of course, they debase the CBDCs (surprise!), but they buy more time.

by powerdownkiwi | 7th Apr 21, 9:04am 1617743092

Well put.

Your story sits atop of mine; since 1970 (think Nixon unpinning gold, US conventional oil peaking) we have had a divergence between issued debt, and planetary ability to underwrite (I pick that date from an energy POV; before that an Arab oil-embargo didn't work against the US, after that, one did). From there on, the elite have had to peddle more and more myths to cover the worsening reality, the biggest myth being that ever-greater piles of debt were going to be meaningfully-repaid.

That can't happen; the physical underwrite is diminishing exponentially, the debt increasing exponentially - the graphs cross acutely.

They are lucky to have the compliance of the MSM - talk about peddling regurgitated falsehoods! One wonders if things stay intact enough, whether lynch-mobs won't come after the 'financial advisers' of this world?

Where does it go from here? More injection, bigger bubble, more fallout. The joke is that the elite can't self-isolate from this one - they rely on digital proxy too. Crash the system and you've crashed their 'wealth'. And I suspect they will be found to have less appropriate skills than just about anyone

by Roelof | 7th Apr 21, 9:15am 1617743728

pdk...
Yes... I agree with u.
At some point , we will all learn what "real" wealth ...really is.

Would not surprise me..if when it all hits the wall, the modern age of materialism/consumerism .... comes to an end.. ( ie.. the idea that increasing consumption is good, simply for the sake of growth. )

by Audaxes | 7th Apr 21, 8:45am 1617741901

The IMF has upgraded its global growth forecasts, based on new large fiscal support in a few large economies, especially the US. Global growth is now projected at +6% in 2021, moderating to +4.4% in 2022.
A cautionary tale: The Failure of the IMF in Bolivia

The IMF has always imposed its own way of doing things in all countries, in exchange for credits they demand control over the debtor, and during the history of neoliberalism, this has further impoverished those who are already poor and concentrated wealth in the hands of the few. In Bolivia, the IMF used to have an entire floor within the building of the Central Bank, they all worked speaking in English and it was there that Bolivia’s economic policies were decided.

The model was thrown out at the start of Evo Morales’ government, the IMF were told that this country would no longer agree to their conditions. So without these loans, how did we generate liquidity? By nationalising hydrocarbons, this brought revenue that allowed us to take back control of the economy and ensure that our spending came from our own pockets rather than from foreign loans.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 11:46am 1617752766

And in Africa, debt enlarged by currency depreciation and inflation. https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:277664/FULLTEXT01.pdf

by Cowpat | 7th Apr 21, 9:01am 1617742860

It must be Barfoots banner line day. What are the magic numbers

by two otherguys | 7th Apr 21, 10:23am 1617747807

There's you answer
Banner splash headline on interest.co.nz
Breaking news: Barfoot & Thompson had its best month ever in March - with sales volumes and prices at record highs... More soon.

by powerdownkiwi | 7th Apr 21, 11:19am 1617751199

Interest.co have to hustle for clicks - that's the result.

But 'best'?

Biggest, followed by why and oops, but best?

by Chris-M | 7th Apr 21, 9:34am 1617744854

Are we headed for one god almighty world wide housing crash?

by two otherguys | 7th Apr 21, 10:23am 1617747790

...

by Mannering | 7th Apr 21, 10:13am 1617747235

You moaning bastards are getting on my wick too in this stupid Boomer anti Boomer slanging match. One because your are moaners and two because it is so intellectually childish and facile, being based on the idea that society is split into two cookie cutter groups. I joined this site and paid my money because there are some here who are worth listening to and from whom I can learn something worthwhile, although some, unfortunately, it would appear, have been deleted for not being PC - which is a great disappointment. But I guess this is one of the penalties of the anonymity of the internet.

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Apr 21, 10:27am 1617748031

In my relatively short time on this rock that is hurtling through space, I've noticed that our society is becoming increasingly polarised. The inability for your average person to debate and address the problem, not the person who brought it up, to me is the most obvious symptom. Someone says or does something we don't agree with? Let's censor them instead of exploring a solution.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 11:01am 1617750102

Agreed, currently the "OK Boomer" cancel culture meme is leading the way backward.

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 11:15am 1617750902

"Too many avocado on toast lunches" even though we earn less and spend less than previous generations.
"Lower your expectations, move further out" when this used to mean "Howick", now it means "try commuting from the Waikato"
"You took a student loan, pay it back" when you got the education for free and a single income could pay a mortgage.
"Millennials are killing the XYZ industry"... by being poorly-paid and over-worked?

Gen Xers and Boomers have made lazy stereotypes about millennials and their selfish desires to just be able to keep a stable roof over their head for years now. Yet one "OK Boomer" lands in Parliament and you turn into a bunch of snowflakes. Pathetic.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 12:04pm 1617753866

I seem to have hit a nerve but you are short on facts.

"we earn less and spend less" - no not factually.
"try commuting from the Waikato" - just personally finished this phase, now work in the Waikato moving my family and all that entails.
"you got the education for free and a single income could pay a mortgage" - not not factually. Gen X was the first to pay fees and I tool a loan for 80% of my study. I also had to work two jobs as well as study full time. A single income to pay a mortgage - not since the late 80's.
"Millennials are killing the XYZ industry" can't say I have heard that saying, where does that come from?

Hand wringing about "just able to keep a stable roof over their heads" is all very Dickensian but I was not able to buy a house until I was 38 should Gen Z be special? Snowflakes indeed.

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 12:19pm 1617754742

"I seem to have hit a nerve but you are short on facts." Oh, silly me, relying on statistically documented increases in median house prices relative to incomes, declining home ownership rates, record rents, wages that continue to fall behind other countries we were once ahead of in our living standards, congestion in major cities with under-provisioned infrastructure.... I'd say "you get the idea" but you seem really determined to not get the idea.

Also, just FYI "I had it hard so everyone should have it worse" is a really shitty way to run a country. Just because you had it hard doesn't mean it's impossible for things to get worse.

FIN: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/millennials-killing-industries-decad…

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 12:31pm 1617755504

I'll say this much also; it shouldn't have been as hard for you to do as it was, nor should it be as frankly impossible as it is for many Kiwis today. I'm about to finish paying back my student loan and it's something I think no one should ever have to go through again. I'm not going to insist that young people in a low-wage, high-cost economy be saddled with a house deposit of debt to maybe get a job that probably won't get them a middle class life because I had to do it. I think they should be abolished because they're bullshit.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 1:36pm 1617759387

On this we agree.

I assume you were spared the grinning reaper (Lockwood Smith) who had the audacity to talk about it being "fair" to introduce student loans (his PHD being fully paid for by society). There was never a face I have ever wanted to punch so badly.

It should never have been the case that we decide not to invest as a country in our young.

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 2:09pm 1617761363

No, thank God, but we did endure the laughable 'Fee Maxima' era which basically turned into a price floor. I can't remember how many maximum fee increases there were during my time at university, but that probably is more a function of how long I was at university for - too long. I was there from the mid-2000s to the early 2010s and it was basically just a "just put it on your student loan, whatevs" approach to revenue management from universities. Never mind that people who graduated after 2009 found that a lot of the graduate programmes the 2004 - 2007 grads walked into shut up shop in NZ and never returned.

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Apr 21, 11:53am 1617753207

Stones in glass houses.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 10:32am 1617748326

So just to be clear you're moaning in this comment about other people moaning? (But fail to see the hypocrisy?)

by Room319 | 7th Apr 21, 1:02pm 1617757378

Just need some smiley faces and angry emojis for this site to complete the transition into a stuff wannabe.

by JustAnOpinion | 7th Apr 21, 1:46pm 1617759962

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

by Carlos67 | 7th Apr 21, 1:59pm 1617760752

Some of it I just smile tho as my whole life I have been called a "Negative person" for pointing out things that are wrong and for offering solutions on how to make improvements, but yep still called negative. There are those people that whine on here all the time but your just better off shutting up and getting your head down and just working your way out of it. Looking back on my life it's up to you, nobody else is going to come to your rescue and pull you out of the hole. You can vent on here all you like its not going to fix anything.

by Quiet Desperation | 7th Apr 21, 2:41pm 1617763285

You mistake the unreliability of trusting other people in our society, as confirmation that everyone is better off going it alone. But surprisingly, the kind of society that results from everyone just looking out for themselves is pretty horrific. We stand on the shoulders of people who did band together and change the situation to benefit those who came after them, many of them were never even able to enjoy the fruit of their labours. We might as well spit on their graves, if we're going to encourage people to just shut up and focus on looking out for themselves. I'm sick of trying to be tactful about it, when it's just despicable.

by Quiet Desperation | 7th Apr 21, 2:23pm 1617762203

So... 'moaning bastards' is an intellectually mature and well thoughtout out label that is acceptable for you to use when referring to people that are voicing concerns about issues you don't agree with - but comments about the general attitudes held by different generations, that are clearly evident and even on full display right here, are 'so intellectually childish and facile'?

by streetwise | 7th Apr 21, 10:50am 1617749443

Let's revert to reality:
1. China is solely responsible for the propagation of the Covid pandemic.
2. The National Key government is solely responsible for the uncontrolled tsunami of immigrants.

Both these factors are responsible for our present situation which is causing inter-generational angst and aggro.
Key should be stripped of his knighthood.

by GV 27 | 7th Apr 21, 11:11am 1617750663

Ah the old 'John Key personally invented homelessness, everything was fine before November 2008, houses definitely weren't spiraling out of reach and only headed off by the GFC under Labour' banger. It's been a while.

by powerdownkiwi | 7th Apr 21, 11:23am 1617751434

Actually unfettered growth caused homelessness, along with a failure to distribute evenly.

When you ask who was most guilty there, the neolib brigade were more so than the egalitarian.

But both are part of a system which is guilty as charged.

by murray86 | 7th Apr 21, 11:41am 1617752495

Disagree about the 'egalitarian' PDK. they generally want all to be catered for. A big part of the fault lies with capitalists who have decided that socialism is virtually a capital crime, equate it to communism, and of course governments who fell for their propaganda, or the bribes that were offered.

by Independent_Observer | 7th Apr 21, 12:32pm 1617755571

Haha those that would consider themselves 'anti-socialist' I know actually love socialism because it means there is zero risk (the state saves any company that might fail) and they cover any losses they might be in an actual free market economy. e.g. the accommodation supplement for landlords.

So they are very confused souls. The thing the hate, supports (or is the only thing keeping alive) the thing they love.

by murray86 | 7th Apr 21, 1:30pm 1617759013

PDK, you attribute an aspect to socialism that I suggest is false. "it means there is zero risk (the state saves any company that might fail) and they cover any losses they might be in an actual free market economy." I suggest socialism doesn't mean that at all. (but under communism it might) I suggest that socialism merely ensures that there are clear requirements about working conditions, 40 hrs/week, overtime, minimum pay rates etc. And before you jump on it, this doesn't mean there can't be part time jobs, just that they are clearly defined by hours/pay/conditions etc. It means employers can't pay near slave labour rates, or have unfair conditions. I would also suggest that employers right to hire and fire would also be better protected too. Socialism just means people get a fair chance, not that a business can't fail, or a slack worker can't be fired.

by Pusheen | 8th Apr 21, 12:07am 1617797225

Watch how RBA works, their hand brake is more potent than RBNZ, even their gradual QE just closely matched/obviously influenced by RBNZ mad knee jerk reactions... but yea.. ehem, they're 25mil, NZ just 3.5mil with displaced 1.5mil outside (don't expect to ever return back). NZ speed is too fast, and their correction? is too huge, now.. they're cold sweatin' with the fish tailed high speed vessel.