sign uplog in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

NZ inches up the competitiveness rankings; US dollar zooms higher; China port congestion grows serious; Aussie population growth stalls; UST 10yr stays at 1.51%; gold and oil down sharply; NZ$1 = 70 USc; TWI-5 = 72.5

NZ inches up the competitiveness rankings; US dollar zooms higher; China port congestion grows serious; Aussie population growth stalls; UST 10yr stays at 1.51%; gold and oil down sharply; NZ$1 = 70 USc; TWI-5 = 72.5

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news New Zealand seems to be making relative progress as an economy.

New Zealand has risen two places in the latest ranking of economic competitiveness and now sits at the #20 spot. That is two places higher than Australia which fell four positions from the #18 spot it was at in 2020. The top four spots are all European and headed by Switzerland. Singapore is #5, the US #10. China is #16.

Yesterday's Fed assessment of its policy position, and the more 'optimistic' dot-plot has powered the US dollar sharply higher overnight. But the benchmark UST 10yr yield has reverted back to its pre-meeting level.

US jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week, although the actual rise was quite small (+37,200). There are now still 3.3 mln people on these benefits and until it dips below 2 mln they will not be able to claim this metric is back to pre-pandemic levels.

The latest Philly Fed survey maintains it good expansionary recordings, but they are essentially unchanged from a month ago. Firms in the region grew more optimistic however. And this is despite input costs rising much faster than output prices.

In China, that port congestion isn't clearing and the latest estimates are that the earliest things will clear is two months from now. The global ripple effects are mounting and it is adding new pressures on the resilience of integrated and globalised supply chains. Container shipping prices are as much as seven times higher than a year ago. The Baltic Dry Index rose +2.9% to 3,267 yesterday, its highest since June 2010. Rising costs affect not only containerised cargoes, but bulk cargoes as well.

Although China is claiming success in taking the top off the commodity price surge, and some commodities like copper have fallen in price over the past week, there is still no sign that iron ore prices are retreating yet.

House prices in China rose an average of +4.9% in May from one year ago, a slightly faster pace of increase (but tame by New Zealand standards). Of the 70 cities surveyed, 8 had price falls. Just three had increases exceeding +10%. As assessed by price movements, the housing market seems stable in China at this time.

The central bank of Taiwan kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.125% but it did upgrade its forecasts for economic growth in the island nation to +5.1% (from 4.5%) for 2021. This is actually more cautious than their official Government forecast. And it does see rising inflation but at +1.6% that is now benchmarked as a tame level.

In the UK, the pandemic is rising "exponentially" again with much of it being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated. And this comes at a time the UK is trying to renege on its Brexit agreement.

The Australian unemployment rate has fallen -0.4% to 5.1% in May and back to the level it was at pre-pandemic. That means they added +165,000 jobs in May from April, but 'only' +265,000 from May 2019. Full-time employment is back above the two-year-ago standard by +174,000 or just +1.3% in two years when the employed workforce grew +2.1%. Markets cheered the improvements however. (The New Zealand jobless rate is 4.7%.)

Australia's population growth sank to just +0.5% in the year to December 2020, the smallest expansion in at least 40 years, probably longer. (New Zealand's 2020 population growth was +1.7%.)

Yesterday, a number of key Australian banks suffered website crashes following an issue with the web services company Akamai. Customers reported problems with banks including ANZ, Westpac, St George, ME bank, Macquarie Bank, Allianz, and the CBA. NAB did seem to be affected.

Wall Street is trading flat on the S&P500 in afternoon trade. Overnight European markets were quite mixed, with Paris up +0.2% and London down more than -0.4%. Yesterday the very large Tokyo market ended its session down another -0.9%. But the Hong Kong market was up +0.4% and the Shanghai rose +0.2%. The ASX200 ended down -0.4% while the NZX50 Capital Index fell -0.3%.

The UST 10yr yield starts today down -5 bps at 1.51% and giving up most of yesterday's sharp run-up. The US 2-10 rate curve is flatter at +128 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +80 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is much flatter as well at +145 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.55% and unchanged. The China Govt ten year bond is still at 3.16%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.80% and up +13 bps.

The price of gold starts today at US$1779 which is down a massive -US$60 from this time yesterday. And that makes it down -US$102 or -5.2% in a week. Silver is down even more.

Oil prices are down -US$1.50 today at just under US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is over US$72/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today at 70 USc and down another -¾c since this time yesterday. That makes it a -1¼c fall in a week. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 58.8 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.5 and a new two month low.

The bitcoin price is now at US$37,825 and down another -2.9% from this time yesterday. At this level however it is actually +3% higher than this time last week. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs »

The 'US$' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The 'AU$' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The 'TWI' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The '¥en' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The '¥uan' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The '€uro' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The 'GBP' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The 'Bitcoin' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

108 Comments

Kiwi buyers of dirty vehicles now helping fund more R&D of EV. (Well assuming it's cost neutral and not being underwritten by the general tax payer).

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/evs/300335451/mad-rush-as-ev-sales-surg...

Johnston also imports EVs from Japan, and he said he believes sellers in Japan are increasing the prices of their EVs in response to the subsidy.

“The dealers monitor the market very closely.

“Now with this incentive in place they’ve seen that, and they have simply increased their reserve price on vehicles, knowing that New Zealanders receive a subsidy,” he said.

20
up

Exactly as to be expected. Any sort of subsidy, even if just intended to rob Peter to pay Paul, is self defeating. It simply distorts the market & just ends up going down its own vortex.

13
up

Yes but disappointing. This Government appears to dropping into a traditional socialist political party rabbit hole that is all about lowering the living standards of the middle and lower classes (working Kiwis) increasing dependency and generally just doing nothing that is either progressive or building solid economic wealth for the country. Frustrating, as National don't have their act together either. David Seymour (Act) is either too silent on too many things or the MSM is not seeking his view.

Agreed re David not getting any air time, but also, ACT has a light bench and as with all parties some of their polices are weak. National are a basket case but the political bar is not high. Professional, long-time politicians make terrible policy due to their complete naivety and lack of skills outside of the political spectrum.

You could be me as I feel EXACTLY the same way. Hard working Kiwis are being squeezed in the middle, while those at the top of the pile are getting cheap interest to scoop up investment properties and now getting subsidized EVs. Where is the Opposition?

We shall see with the opposite side of the equation with the horrendous disgusting utes: will their overall sale price stay the same after Jan 1? Possibly. At the very least their overall price will not go up by the full tax amount.
I saw a lady driving a ute in Auckland yesterday, with kids in the back. Struggling to park it. WTF?
PS. I have no problems with farmers owning them where their pollution does not kill people.

15
up

The EV subsidy is a croc of shite...

So we have
- subsidies for more consumption of EVs (to be cleaner)
- subsidies for airlines and promos to "find somwhere New nz .... cmon Aucklanders, fly all over the country , we need you ....

ALL consumption is the opposite of green. Someone just needs to tell the green party.

Yep, further in your face debunking of the phrase "Climate Change is life or death".

An issue sure, but no where near a top 10 issue.

It's becoming classic:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/125471972/bid-to-defer-christchurch...

But Cr Sara Templeton said to delay climate change action was to deny the reality of the situation.

Sara seems not aware that her reality is not common or shared.

LOL - the bike brigade (SPOKES) have HUGE influence within the CCC. If you are not with them, you will be 'cancelled'.

Good thing too - the city is becoming much more livable now people can cycle more freely. Numbers of cyclists are growing strongly, and I know a bunch of people who wouldn't have cycled without dedicated lanes who are now ditching their cars to get to work. Given our geography and relatively small size, cycling is the best option for most journeys (although obviously not all).

Great news for everyone - even those who drive who will see fewer cars on the road and inhale less exhaust gas.

https://newsline.ccc.govt.nz/news/story/christchurch-cyclists-change-up-...

Disagree. People on bikes go from a to b, they don't stop and buy stuff along the way. The cycleways in the city have destroyed parking and good access in and out, which is why we constantly hear the CCC asking people to go into the CBD. The CCC should realize cyclists are the MINORITY.

Well, I can tell you that's not true for me, I do virtually all my shopping by bike. I am not the only one. If you've been in the CBD recently, it is buzzing, especially around Riverside and the Terrace. Plenty of bikes and pedestrians around.

I agree cyclists are a minority - for decades car drivers have been the only ones catered for, so it's hardly surprising. My question for you - what is your ideal proportion of journeys in Chch which should be by bike (approximately), and what infrastructure would that require?

Audi announces plans to cease petrol and diesel vehicle production by 2026
https://www.driven.co.nz/news/audi-announces-plans-to-cease-petrol-and-d...

And I'll put money on someone upthread, peddling mantra, didn't read what was put in front of them

:)

Horse, water.......

Not only the ladies who can’t park them. Down here in Hawkes Bay, every second vehicle seems to be a double cab ute driven primarily by males, many of whom don’t understand what the white lines in the middle of the road are for, have no idea of the damage they would cause if impacting at 100kmh and seem oblivious to the fact that their employer’s name is emblazoned on the side.

Not just the impact damage at 100kph, try hitting anything at 30kph with the bullbars or nudgebars they all have. Why they need these bars and how they get a wof is beyond me.

13
up

Utes are preferred as company vehicles due to their exemptions from FBT which have to be paid on all other company vehicles. The FBT on a double-cab needs to be paid when it is being used to drop the kids off but never is.

Company vehicles are a legitimate expense for businesses (unlike mortgage interest on a mortgage on a rental property lol) so if you need a car why would you not put a car on the business and reduce your tax exposure in the business. No FBT means its a no-brainer financially.

This has been the case for ages but you would have to be even slightly interested in solving the problem to make policy to change this situation. Labour policy is measured on the virtue signalling scale, aka the "hug-index" and not the effectiveness scale.

Lots of accountant's driving big utes ..must be all the files on rental returns they carry around?

lol :) so true! Having said that it's not bad indicator of competence re tax dodges.

FG. You sound a bit angry this morning. I suspect you could be one of those illegitimate ute owners Ms Ardern has identified as enemies of the state and are just lashing out.

In that movie the Gene Hackman character made is escape for the burning compound in a .... Ute.

https://youtu.be/ZjogdKObxrI

Heck not much steam in that one, not for me anyway. No not a ute owner. Was in the industry at the time of Muldoon’s utterly stupid & catastrophic SMPs & saw the same counterproductive crap in the EEC. No friend of subsidies for sure. What heats me up though MM is this hypocrisy from the PM & others entreating us all to do our bit when at the same time they sanction a bloody great jet airport in the middle of Central Otago. How much concrete & other industrial material, diesel fumes goes into construction of that, let alone the future use, that all us will have to do our bit to compensate. Oddly enough not one square meter of the much vaunted SNAs to be found on this ground. Where exactly is the other great hypocrites, the Greens, voice on this. OK, fair enough, now admit a bit angry.

Excellent, mission accomplished ! Co-incidentally I was also involved in servicing agriculture in the Muldoon era and saw the same nonsense. I remember the financial wide boys flocking in droves (trust you got that) to the various taxpayer subsidised farm 'investment' rorts. The sprawling deer farms (read tax havens) being inspected by Range Rover driving city owner/ investor syndicates are a particular memory. She was a grim time in the countryside when it all unwound. Was in QTown the other day where the periodic roar of jet engines under full climb out power was prominent. Nash's platitudinous ramblings won't do a thing to stop the flood of pack and save mass tourism returning post covid. A wall of cash and pent up travel lust in Asia and the sub continent is steadily building and we don't have the moral courage of our claimed environmental convictions to say 'enough'. With the current QT airport capacity and weather constrained, a new airport at Tarras is inevitable, especially given the anti airport extension nimbys at Wanaka look to have the upper hand.

Why would you increase your reserve price and not just let the market have its way.

We are only a part of the international market for used cars and it makes no sense to adjust your minimum expectation and risk being stuck with supply because of a change in one country.

"Here is a chart showing net non-citizen migration as a percentage of New Zealand’s population growth for each calendar year from 1991 to 2019. ...Not even in 1991 was the contribution of non-citizen net migration quite as low as 30 per cent, and 1993 was the last time the contribution (to a first approximation, the contribution of immigration policy) was below 60 per cent.
https://croakingcassandra.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/non-citizen-contri...
https://croakingcassandra.com/2021/05/18/at-least-60-per-cent/

27
up

Whats our desirable population?
My view is for much less than the current five million.
We have to sort out what we think that number could be well before we get to the immigration quota.
I believe the end result would slash immigration.

11
up

I would say between 2-3million. As that is what our population was between the 1950s-1980s. i.e. the time when we actually built the critical infrastrucure for.

This is the crux of it, what is the right mix of infrastructure to support a given quality of living within a particular set of cultural values.

I agree with Nocents that as at current infrastructure levels 3 million would be idea but actually would prefer us to have 4-5 million for the economic and security benefits, this would require substantially more infrastructure than we currently have.

"but actually would prefer us to have 4-5 million for the economic and security benefits, this would require substantially more infrastructure than we currently have."

I kind of agree, but..
1. we don't appear to be able to afford to build that extra infrastructure.
2. Both the % of populace and total number in poverty have increased significantly.
3. Work hours have increased (productivity not so much)
4. Costs have increased, wages have stayed relatively flat.

So my question would be; are the economic benefits of a larger population really there?

- We can build all the infrastructure we need this is an illusion peddled by academia and particularly the school of economics. A ministry of works could over time build all the infrastructure we require just as they did in the first place. The cash required for this will come from treasury and the effect on our foreign exchange rate will be countered by our exports. This debt need never be repaid but could be over time if the credit rating agencies required it (and even this could be solved politically).

- poverty is a very, very complex problem and not really addressable here. Suffice to say while we have the disabling socialist political environment we have today across the world this is fairly baked in. Also there will always be poverty, always has been, we can aspire but the curse of the bell-shaped curve will be upon us forever.

- Work hours are certainly fixable but the level of education required is extensive and the policy to implement it complex. In essence France and the Nordics are more productive by accommodating process and outcome standardisation, improving those processes over time and ensuring technology is at the core of all initiatives.

- Here I need to change track and get on the socialist band wagon. Punitive tiered tax rates in the above mentioned countries indicates a clear social expectation that while some profiteering is good, a lot is bad for your fellow man. Companies and the HNW owners of those companies realise they may as well pay better and reduce their profitability. In this way they are celebrated rather than derided. Germany compels union membership on the boards of big companies, this both improves the boards appreciation of the workforces capability and also increases the work-forces understanding of the companies performance drivers.

A larger population will allow us to have the depth of skills to survive social disruptions and is large enough that we can exchange people with other countries without concern over brain drain etc. We need to do this to avoid the xenophobia that leads to war and is a natural inclination for us as a species.

JAO - how can you put up stuff like that, so late in the discussion?

You are still equating money, with doing stuff and with poverty.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
See if you can understand what he is saying.

PDK I have heard the sermon many, many times! I appreciate the finite nature of resources and the energy backing of money but I also think we need to be eyes open to the progress we have made and are continuing to make (https://www.humanprogress.org/). Chicken-little doesn't get invited to the most interesting parties.

And every time we have kicked away the rung below.

:)

I laughed when this came up: The Adam Smith Institute (ASI) is a neoliberal (formerly libertarian) think tank and lobbying group based in the United Kingdom

That's just a spin site - interesting you link it while acknowledging; cognitive dissonance perhaps?

Perhaps but I would be more generous and say I am open to all arguments. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/ is a spin site of it's own surely?

I accept the depressing arguments outlined in your site but there is near total lack of solutions presented to those issues. As I said, I have read your links before and I accept the truth on those writings but I am not stopping there. Hope is something I believe very strongly in and I am not interested in wallowing in the doom.

I have moved my family and myself to be involved in energy-tech I am hoping to contribute to solutions.

onya.

I try to demonstrate an appropriate lifestyle, own energy, all that.

But the juggernaut jugs on, and the sooner it is stopped/ redirected the more will be left to manoeuvre with. And just because a seamless morph is no possible, doesn't invalidate the predicament or the need to react.

Go well

Why be big when instead we can be rich, happy, and a bach 20 feet from the sand.

A sustainable WORLD population is probably somewhere on the flat part of the graph
http://www.thegeographeronline.net/uploads/2/6/6/2/26629356/128697-orig_...
ie less than 200 million
NZ would be less than 200,000 ...
Take away fossil fuels and we'll find out

That is probably a bit too grim. I would say around 1-2 billion would be fine (we have had considerable technological advances and gains in efficiency since the flat part of the graph), but I would also add, that the geographical distribution of said population may have to change.

possibly , depends what time frame you are working in ... tech requires feeding
but agree, people would tend to have to move towards tepid climates and spread (thinly) to where resource bases could sustain them (as was the case)

At the moment though, too hard to get to 2 million. Aim should be down to 4 million in the next 15 - 20 years and I think after that, we can comfortably settle at around 3.5 million in the next 30 years. Ideally to keep us true to NZ clean, green, non corrupt, caring, socially conscious lifestyle we need to keep it around 3.5milliom. 5 million presently with businesses begging to open borders to get people in when existing people can’t get into homes, water shortage, infrastructure deficit, severe mental health crisis, general health crisis, wage crisis etc just to name a few is shameful.

whats our desirable population?

3.5 mil

Exponential virus cases in uk
No, sorry
Cases rose at peak by 62% in a week
Latest is 32% in a week
Exponential requires higher rate of increase per period, continuously
This is a continuing rise per week but not at a higher RATE

Not quite, functions can be and most often are exponential with a constant growth component. The constant of proportionality of this relationship is the natural logarithm of the base case. Any constant growth over 0 will in time be seen as exponential.

What I think you mean is that this rate of growth was not as exponential as at the peak, but it is still exponential.

Thank you for the assist there!
Just get a bit tired of fear and the mainstream re cv19

Good to see btc holding steady. A tonne of shorts are expiring in the next 24 hours so wouldn't be surprised to see a quick pump.

For those who poo-pood the idea that btc would drive clean energy adoption and innovation in the generation space how about these apples? https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-btc-miners-in-china-plot-plans-to-go-green/

"The Crypto Cowboys are moving to Texas…yee haw…the wild west 2 is here.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/chinas-bitcoin-miner-exodus-.html
.
China has long been home to more than half the world’s bitcoin miners, but now, Beijing wants them out ASAP."

Yes BTC poses a major threat to the CCP - ban what they cannot control

"But perhaps the biggest question is the reliability of the Texas power grid. A storm that devastated large swaths of the state in 2021 has reignited a debate over whether Texas should winter-proof its systems, a potentially costly project that might affect taxes or other fees for those looking to tap into the state’s power grid. More recently, ERCOT, the organization that operates Texas’ grid, asked consumers to conserve energy amid what officials called an unusual number of “forced generation outages” and an upcoming heat wave."

I assume even the weather can't ban /control Bitcoin ?

You underestimate the power of the Bitcoin! It will bring down governments, cause a green revolution and generally save the world. A little weather control? No problem for the mighty BTC!!

Maybe it will, maybe it won't but at least we're not going to be left wondering.

In 2019, a small team of Salvadoran volunteers and an American expat started to transform the local economy to run on Bitcoin. Workers now receive their salaries and pay bills in Bitcoin, tourists can buy pupusas with a special Bitcoin payment app, and community projects are financed with Bitcoin donations. According to Jorge Valenzuela, an upbeat 32-year-old surfing aficionado who leads the volunteers, “it has changed my town.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-06-17/world-s-biggest-bitco...

Lol! Listen to yourself!

Bring down governments, are you insane!

I suppose cryptos will also supply a police force to keep you safe and a military to stop someone invading this now ungoverned country...

you should have you own programme on Sunday morning TV with the other evangelist nut jobs

Lol! Listen to yourself!

Ezy has some very enlightening ideas that are worth reading and thinking about. Despite displaying some of the ultra orthodox behaviors, I think he or she is suggesting that 'bringing down the govt' is another way of expressing that the top-down monetary system is so broken that it's beyond repair. BTC is demonstrating that.

ultimately Bitcoin is a (greater fool) gamble that the Fed/ central banks can keep outrunning deflationary forces by ever more credit ....
But deflationary pressures on incomes are the problem
So its a No from me

Yes - sorry I was trying to be humorous, I agree Ezy has bought an informed opinion to the discussions on BTC here, I have learnt quite a few things from his posts and links.

Bitcoin, powered by cow $hit, quite laughable. We are going to need more cows.

Don't forget the btc bull $hit.

12
up

To support an ever-more effluent society

:)

Punstopable :D

got it down pat

Gold collateral is being sold to meet margin calls in other markets. US Tbills are in huge demand. Also witness today's activity at the FED reverse repo window - $755.80bn of dealer cash at 0.050% being exchanged for 'off the run' US Treasury securities collateral to bolster margin calls on not so safe or liquid securities currently purchased under collaterlised repurchase agreements elsewhere.

Furthermore, it's not just the price of gold that is collapsing - graphic evidence

Reserving Observations On The Reverse Repo Of Reserves
No Reserving Interpretation About Reverse Repo Collateral Connection(s)

I really enjoy your posts Audaxes. I have also been following the FED reverse repos - with alarm.

I really enjoy your posts Audaxes.

So do I. Learn much from Audaxes' posts.

What is driving the commodities lower? Looking at the graph I see virtual flocks of birds flying away ahead of a storm - any thoughts on the cause of the storm?

Fisheries Minister on RNZ in damage-control mode.

Notably, Ryan is going to avoid the court-case completely.

Hook line and sinker? Or crony journalism?

Crony journalism? Surely not! - "The Government’s housing developer Kāinga Ora has been paying $25,000 a month to sponsor media stories on NZME’s OneRoof real estate website.

But the stories from the KiwiBuild and public house developer did not carry a disclaimer making clear who was paying for them.

A disclaimer was added by NZME after Stuff approached the company for comment.

National’s housing spokeswoman Nicola Willis uncovered the content deal with a written question to Housing Minister Megan Woods.

“It’s a secret jack-up between the Government’s housing arm and a media provider to make what are ads look like genuine news stories,” Willis said"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300334848/government-housing-d...

Go Willis. She's doing a good job of the shadow housing portfolio.

But how on earth does Woods get away with a 'no comment' on this serious breach? A government department funding private media has more than a whiff of corruption yet the MSM meekly allows the minister to disdainfully refuse to be accountable to the electorate. Imagine the MSM outrage if this were an opposition scandal.

"In the UK, the pandemic is rising "exponentially" again with much of it being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated"

Where is the evidence on the pandemic resurgence been driven by younger people who are not vaccinated ? Why should they vaccinate when their own immune system is 99.9998% efficient against CV without any side effect or long term damage ? Being vaccinated does not provide a better immunity than the one you get from a fully functioning and immune system (like the ones young and metabolically healthy people have).

"Being vaccinated does not provide a better immunity than the one you get from a fully functioning and immune system (like the ones young and metabolically healthy people have)." Can you back this up - you ask for evidence and this post this comment - clueless?

I am thinking it is hard to beat 99.9998% efficiency. Also there is clear evidence that CV affects mainly people who are immunocompromised (older people or people with co-morbidity factors) . For instance Average age of death from CV in France is 84y (life expectancy is 83y)
Young healthy people simply do not die from CV. Look at this study for instance https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00066-3/fulltext
I am not anti-vaccine, but we have to be very careful about giving an experimental medication to people that simply do not need it. First do not harm.

the fact that CV is not killing them doesn't mean they're not catching it, or are not spreading it. Nor does it mean they do not suffer long term debilitating effects of having it.

However early in COVID I did suggest the opinion that the young should be vaccinated first, because they would be the ones to thoroughly test the vaccination's effectiveness. Generally they weren't vaccinated first, so now they are being identified as the 'super spreaders'.

From the evidence we currently have, the CV vaccine does not prevent infection or shedding either. Where is the evidence that young people with no co-morbidity who are mostly asymptotic when they get CV end up with long term debilitating effects ? But we have already evidence of very serious side effects and death occurring post vaccination regardless of age and co-morbidity factor.

See below for that NR. Plus I would add that when you are 60 you will be no more ready to die, than you were at 30. To argue that because you are 'old' and it is a threat to you, then it is not important smacks a little of eugenics, that you think that at a certain age people should be thrown on a scrap heap (is your Nazi party membership paid up?). What age is that? At What age do you have to be before you don't matter? I think you should remember you comments when reach that age. will you be willing to throw yourself on the scrap heap when you reach it, or is this just something you will do to others, but of which you will be exempt?

My point is that there is a huge amount of people out there where the benefit risk is not favorable. They should not be forced or be expected to take this. That not modern medicine. They do not need to become collateral damage.

"They should not be forced". No one is being forced to take the vaccine, this isn't China.

what about people working in the quarantine areas? doctors and nurses ? military personal ? Also will we be able to travel and work normally without Covid vaccination card ?

None of the groups you mention are forced to take the vaccine.

No person forced to take vaccine in that story.

School up on basic human rights - it's not just about force.

"Article 6 – Consent

1. Any preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic medical intervention is only to be carried out with the prior, free and informed consent of the person concerned, based on adequate information. The consent should, where appropriate, be express and may be withdrawn by the person concerned at any time and for any reason without disadvantage or prejudice.

http://portal.unesco.org/en/ev.php-URL_ID=31058&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECT...

Now it is about human rights, lol? Make your mind up. Changing the argument to suit your narrative. School yourself up on using the correct syntax.

I haven't changed my argument how could I give it's is my first comment in the 9.29am thread. Without basic human right what else do you have? Please give me a lesson in syntax - how does Mrs The Point define force? Or should I just go with UNESCO's Universal Declaration?

Article 6 – Consent

1. Any preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic medical intervention is only to be carried out with the prior, free and informed consent of the person concerned, based on adequate information. The consent should, where appropriate, be express and may be withdrawn by the person concerned at any time and for any reason without disadvantage or prejudice.

2. Scientific research should only be carried out with the prior, free, express and informed consent of the person concerned. The information should be adequate, provided in a comprehensible form and should include modalities for withdrawal of consent. Consent may be withdrawn by the person concerned at any time and for any reason without any disadvantage or prejudice. Exceptions to this principle should be made only in accordance with ethical and legal standards adopted by States, consistent with the principles and provisions set out in this Declaration, in particular in Article 27, and international human rights law.

3. In appropriate cases of research carried out on a group of persons or a community, additional agreement of the legal representatives of the group or community concerned may be sought. In no case should a collective community agreement or the consent of a community leader or other authority substitute for an individual’s informed consent.

TLDR. There is informed consent, you do not have to have the shot, hence not forced.

Bless. When you have the tme you can lecture me on the syntax of the big words like disadvantage and prejudice.

the forcing is more creeping & subtle ... no absolutely you dont have to get the vax !!! .... BUT slowly rules come in so you cant mingle (events / shop / work) at vaccine passport only areas .... its already happening overseas

By the way Murray, you will be happy to know that Pfizer has recently launched clinical trials for Covid vaccines in children 6 months to 11 years.
https://www.pfizer.com/science/coronavirus/vaccine/additional-population....
they represent a market of 26% of the global population after all.

Little concerned about your expressed attitude NR. You tend to come over with a distinct bias, in this case apparently presenting an 'anti-vax' perspective, with little understanding. And now you are assuming I would be happy that medicine trials (in this case a vaccination) are being carried out on children. Why? Children in the age group you have indicated i understand would be still developing their immune system, so why would anyone be happy that this is occurring. I would think ethics professionals would be raising significant questions about this? But then i am not a medical professional and my understanding of the issue is limited.

You asked me about my Nazi card membership and my eugenics view and also you also said that you would be happy with "youngs should be vaccinated first". But thanks for clarifying that you do not like this. Me neither so here we agree.

"Data from one study shows that of more than 3,000 adults ages 18 to 34 who contracted COVID-19 and became sick enough to require hospital care, 21% ended up in intensive care, 10% were placed on a breathing machine and 2.7% died."
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavir...

Death is not the only negative outcome of catching the Covid.

Overall, 1187 (36.8%) had obesity, 789 (24.5%) morbid obesity, 588 (18.2%) diabetes, and 519 (16.1%) hypertension.

yes unfortunately Covid-19 does also affect young people who are immunocompromised. In the study you refer to, 1187 (36.8%) had obesity, 789 (24.5%) morbid obesity, 588 (18.2%) diabetes, and 519 (16.1%) hypertension. My point is about the benefit-risk ratio of taking a experimental drug and this is to be discussed on an individual basis by the doctor and the patient to ensure an informed consent is reached.

"Morbid obesity (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.30; 95% CI, 1.77-2.98; vs no obesity; P < .001) and hypertension (adjusted OR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.79-3.12; P < .001) were common and in addition to male sex (adjusted OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.20-1.95; P = .001) were associated with greater risk of death or mechanical ventilation. Odds of death or mechanical ventilation did not vary significantly with race and ethnicity. Morbid obesity was present in 140 patients (41%) who died or required ventilation. Diabetes was associated with increased risk of this outcome in univariable analysis (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.41-2.36; P < .001) but did not reach statistical significance after adjustment (adjusted OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.99-1.73; P = .06). Patients with multiple risk factors (morbid obesity, hypertension, and diabetes) faced risks similar to 8862 middle-aged (age 35-64 years) nonpregnant adults with COVID-19 infection without these conditions (Figure)."

"experimental drug". Fake news, right there.

How do you call this then ? It has been approved under FDA EUA. We have never prescribed a drug approved under EUA to million people before, Its has not even been tested on animals. The final results on the safety study on the Sars-cov2 vaccine won’t be known until May 2023, it simply takes years and thousands of studies to determinate the safety of a vaccine. It is crazy to already hear people say it is safe like any other flu vaccines... nobody knows what those genes are exactly doing and where they go once they are injected.

What do you think the vaccine will be doing (I hate to ask)? The mRNA is does not affect or interact with your DNA or genes. mRNA vaccines never enter the nucleus of the cell which is where our DNA is kept.

What I think about how things can (and I think will) go bad is not relevant, I am no expert. All I know is that mRNA vaccine is a cutting edge drug, which works differently than your typical vaccine and its been approved with a EUA which means that the testing has been expedited. In my little world of software engineering it means that quality goes down and bad things happen. Now we can also debate whether emergency use is or was justified. To me the data clearly shows no, at least not any more (e.g. average age of death is over life expectancy and no excess death recorded for under 75y in France which is pretty much typical of what is happening in other first world countries). It becomes an ethical problem now. Can we justify anything, anything at all, to save humanity from Covid? Can we justify testing this mRNA technology with 6 month babies? no question every life matters, old or young, but we are all born with a disease called life and we all have to go one day. Lets not poison one generation so we can save another from dying from one particular disease. They are other ways to deal with this, other solutions less risky around prevention, treatment and care with existing proven drugs, at least for those where the vaccine benefit risk ratio is not favorable. And for the most at risk amongst us, mRNA vaccines could well be part of the solution too no question.

That's right it is a virus that kills very old, very sick and very fat people.
"Although the RRR considers only participants who could benefit from the vaccine, the absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a vaccine, considers the whole population. ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs: 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00069-0/fulltext

Clueless is right. Hard to believe, with all the information we have at our fingertips that there are still people who come out with this sort of garbage.
You just have to remind yourself that almost 50% of the population have below average IQ.

"The dumb is strong in this one." Educate yourself - https://youtu.be/6OAuJ836LoU

So you post a link a to the importance of Immunization and how it works | Ministry of Health NZ? Agree with your self referencing comment.

So you think the video is not educational to someone who questions the value of vaccines? You appreciate immunization can be acquired via vaccines??

UK Coronavirus cases may be rising but deaths are not. They have broken the link between the virus and deaths with just over 50% of adults fully vaccinated.

Who to believe on shedding in regard to Covid vaccine?

Maybe this article is the truth? https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/92336

Or maybe the guy in this (very long but compelling) interview with the guy that invented mRNZ vaccine technology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_NNTVJzqtY

The latter discusses that it was known before approved that shedding was turning up in the bone marrow and ovaries. The question raised is if the effects can be passed to the next generation.

That video has been removed from youtube.

yes, like hundreds of them before. It is hard to find the truth for the layman if experts with contrarian views are removed from the public eyes and all we are left with is the propaganda narrative from our gvt "expert" and mainstream media. But you can still find the information, you just have to look harder

anything criticising the vaccine program is removed ... the elders know best

If anyone wants to see or hear it they will find it. A quick look and I found this. https://podcasts.apple.com/si/podcast/how-to-save-the-world-in-three-eas...

Professor Weinstein has a lot of videos up as the "Darkhorse Podcast". He is a clever guy, not quite has clever as he brother Eric, but smart enough. His two quests are equally intelligent, you can't just dismiss these guys as they fall into the "expert" category. Smarter than policy makers or politicians for sure.

What is compelling about these guys is a good portion of the interview is about the censorship of anything departing from the official narrative. What is just as alarming is that they discuss the surveys of people's opinion about the vaccine. What is stated is that these views should fall into a normal distribution curve, but the majority are in the extreme camps. So I expect no different here, people will stick to their opinions and dismiss the evidence, it is called cognitive dissonance.

This is Steve's piece. I think it is probably well researched and credible. Certainly Weinstein and Malone, his peers, were taking it seriously. https://trialsitenews.com/should-you-get-vaccinated/

Well worth the read scarfie, not that I was going to get vaccinated anyway. To much of a free thinker and my gut feeling was that it was bad news from the start.