Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the first world economies seem to be expanding at a very good clip.
In the US, the preliminary June factory PMI expanded faster than in May at a roaring level. But the services PMI slipped back from its record fast expansion but it is still expanding faster than the factory sector.
May sales of new homes were reported overnight too, but they were a surprise disappointment. But they are still running +9% higher than the year ago level, and a similar gain against May 2019. Given the shortage of houses for sale, it was expected this new home activity would have been very much higher. But there may be resistance to the much higher prices in this market.
Also disappointing was Canadian April retail sales data which was quite weak, even though this data is now quite dated.
China is now battling a damaging reputation risk as its COVID vaccines are not working well in the developing countries it supplied. It's vaccine diplomacy seems to be backfiring badly. It seems to be another massive own-goal, just like its trade actions against Australia.
Taiwanese industrial production continued on it's fast expansion in May, but their retail sales expansion fell away noticeably in that month.
In Europe, their economies are cranking up, expanding at a level they haven't seen in 15 years. Their factories are being driven by very strong new order levels, their services by strong current activity. Employment is rising. And all this is happening while costs and prices are rising at rates not seen since this series began in the late 1990s. Germany is the key engine here, although both France and the UK are expanding well too.
Australia is reporting a huge AU$13.3 bln merchandise trade surplus in May, easily a new record. It is based on very strong exports of iron ore, coal and meat. Their exports rose to a massive AU$39.2 bln in the month, with a +16% rise to China. Their political dispute isn't hurting Australia yet, and that will be annoying Beijing a lot. And China has so far been unsuccessful in getting the iron ore price to fall as it stays at very high levels.
And Australian states are erecting hard borders with NSW after Sydney’s outbreak grew to 38. The NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian only wants to minimal ‘common sense’ restrictions in her state. She has support for that from the Federal prime minister, but few others. Now four of her coalition MPs are self-isolating after exposure.
And the ATO has signaled it will be targeting investors in crypto currencies, along with about 2.6 million investment properties in this years audits. The expenses claimed by working from home will also be among those prime targets.
Wall Street is level-pegging with the S&P500 up a mere +0.1% in afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets were very mixed and mostly down by -1% or more, except London which was down just -0.2%. Yesterday the very large Tokyo market ended flat. Hong Kong was up a strong +1.8%. And Shanghai managed to post a +0.3% rise. The ASX200 ended with a -0.6% daily retreat, while the NZX50 Capital Index ended with a +0.4% gain.
The UST 10yr yield starts today up +2 bps at 1.49%. Rates also rose at today's well supported US 5yr bond auction. The US 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at +123 bps. Their 1-5 curve is a little steeper at +80 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is basically unchanged at +144 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.54% and a -1 bp dip. The China Govt ten year bond is soft at 3.11%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.81% and that is down -2 bps.
The price of gold starts at US$1783/oz which is up +US$4/oz from this time yesterday.
Oil prices have risen slightly in the US overnight and are now at just over US$73/bbl, while the international Brent price is firm too at just on US$74.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today rising at 70.5 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are holding at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are a little firmer at 59 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.9.
The bitcoin price is now at US$33,613 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.8%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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87 Comments
I think IRD should look into Crypto traders evading taxes in this country. If a frequent stock, FX or commodities trader can easily rack up thousands of dollars in taxes a year, imagine how much individual Crypto traders owns the country's coffer. I won't be surprise the collective amount comes with a capital B.
Yes this would be interesting. If you don't sell and just hold the asset then that is unrecognised capital gains; when you sell it is it subject to capital gains tax? If you are trading the IRD would have to know your wallet address to be able to see your trades. I assume gains on trading are subject to capital gains tax? Are you able to off-set losses?
That depends. I certainly have a big tax bill due for last year. On the other hand, just hold and there is no tax until you sell.
You absolutely can offset losses. I wonder how many people joined crypto this year, had a wild Feb / March trading Dogecoin etc. Made a small fortune, big tax bill as at 31 March and are now ruined with little left to show for it? Sure you get a tax loss next year, but your tax is still due for 31 March 2021.
Doesn't necessarily have to be high frequency trading either. I slowly diversified over the year out of ETH into a bunch of alts and my tax bill is obscene. Thankfully, converted most of those back to BTC before the worst of the downturn. That'll be next year's bill.
You don't sound like you've thought this through. I'm not a "trader" of crypto but I have arranged my tax affairs accordingly with the right legal structure so I don't have to pay tax. I would have thought for someone trading crypto, this is what you want to sort out first.
Frowned upon at best. If I'm going to setup a shell company in Panama or Tahiti and risk getting taken to court for tax evasion, it's got to be for a hell of a lot more reward than a few dozen BTC. When you're playing in that arena, you have to have big enough profits and a small enough footprint to make the cost/benefit of prosecution a negative for the government. When tax revenues start falling because power is flowing away from CBs you can bet your bottom dollar they'll come looking for their pound of flesh from early crypto adopters who's stack has turned from thousands to millions of dollars. The cost/benefit equation will be a no brainer for them. Don't forget that unless you've got your holdings in Monero or similar, there's a comprehensive digital trail and it'll take the auditors about 10 seconds to see exactly what you're holding.
Most crypto like gold bullion is bought with the intention of selling at some future date. Furthermore, most crypto does not provide an ongoing revenue stream (e.g. dividends for shares). Therefore, IR takes the position the crypto was bought for the intention of disposal at some future date and therefore any proceeds on sale will be taxable (and any losses claimable) (see https://www.ird.govt.nz/cryptoassets/individual/buying-selling/acquirin…).
JAO
Yes nothing wrong with holding the asset and the unrecognized capital gain and it is not subject to tax.
It would be hard to argue with IR that purchasing cryptocurrency was not about proposing to trade or not as an investment.
Profits - and losses - are treated as income and taxed as income.
Not to declare one's profits and losses as income is tax fraud. I would be particularly wary about not declaring any profits as under the AML legislation there are considerable reporting requirements on banks.
Given El Salvador has made Bitcoin legal tender in their country though, it's early days for what asset class each crypto product falls under. With Paraguay investigating a similar approach it's going to get very interesting. The IMF and World Bank are going to increasingly grumpy. Thankfully crypto is a digital ledger and an increasing amount of tax calculators will pop up. Can you image trying to calculate the "trading" profit/loss on a social media network like Steem where micro-transactions are being generated at 6000 transactions per second? There's a group called Lobby NZ currently petitioning the Prime Minister to get BTC recognised correctly now it is legal tender. There's never a dull moment.
Yes it is an interesting big-data problem but not unsolvable, Twitter has 6000 tweets a second at the moment. As the resident BTC guru Ezy can you explain or link to an explanation of how BTC can be made a transactional replacement for currency as opposed to my current understanding that it is an investment asset and not able to transact at those volumes?
The second layer lightning network has instant transaction speed with essentially 0 fees. Consider it more like a cash balance on your mobile wallet that you sync back onto the main chain every now and then.
Its like when 2 people with different banks send money to each other the bank just changes the allocation on their ledger, then at the end of the day they sum up the differences in transfers between the two banks and settle the one transaction.
Not every transaction needs the security of having 100+ exahashes of mining power to secure it, like any main chain transaction.
Its also just like Visa, they transfer the money on their internal ledger, but dont actually settle the amount for 30 to 90 days. which is why you can charge back for so long.
These are all second, third or fourth layer scaling solution which is the future of Bitcoin
Yep that sums it up nicely!. So you load your lightning wallet with Bitcoin from the normal part of the wallet (app on phone has your standard BTC wallet in it and also a ltn wallet, so you can just switch back and forth) and then trade away :)
For eg: https://twitter.com/PeterMcCormack/status/1404472405549060100
Nice explanation Galloleous.
I expect BTC in SATS will act as the base layer to everything eventually (hence new global reserve). The lightning network is what El Salvador are using for BTC transactions, and El Zonte has been using it in practice since 2019.
But the more interesting part is what happens to other crypto products once BTC is accepted as legal tender rather than an asset by the majority. Steem is a really interesting network and example because they're a native chain with a specific goal of being the token of the social space. They've got three distinct tokens for - 1) transacting, 2) governance, 3) stable-coin. Currently they're all treated as assets under NZ law, but from a financial perspective they have quite separate utility. This demonstrates how simple the tax law is at the moment, which is mostly governments rushing to put the most austere structure in place over crypto to gain as much tax revenue as possible while they wait and see what happens. But for my money I think the space is going to move much faster than anyone expects, and governments world-wide are going to have to rethink their approaches. Its widely accepted blockchain is in the internet equivalent of the late 90's, so if you think about it the Facebook of crypto on that timeline is 5-7 years away. However crypto adoption is moving at twice the speed by users as the internet, so it's actually closer to 3-5 years away.
So the whole 'bitcoin is going to make banks obselete' thing has died now? So you use the bitcoin lightning network aka a banks payment networks to make all your actual transactions off-the-chain. And then these banks use the blockchain for overnight inter-bank settlement?
Kinda like trading stocks with a cfd. You never actually trade a stock, but benfit from it's price movements.
No, sorry my example might have been a bit confusing. The lightning wallet has nothing to do with banks, I was using the banks with there internal balancing as an example of how the lightning network works.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9S_x0qsXP0
Decent basic overview but form last year, and there has been a lot of development in the mean time, for example Strike.
https://explorer.acinq.co/ An idea of the amount of network links. so it can bounce around between channels to get to the destination.
Isn't the lightning wallet basically a payments network, like the banks? I.e. if you transact via lightening you are giving up all the benefits of blockchain and trusting a whole unrelated payment channel. All the channel close fraud oppurtunities sound like a nightmare.
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/bitcoin-lightning-network-problems/
No you are not giving up all the benefits of the blockchain, your opening and closing transactions area still broadcast to the network, so settled back to the main chain. Not really an expert in the back end operation side of things sorry.
I cant go through and comment on everything on that page, but they are referencing the Lightning network white paper from 2016. Im pretty confident that with some of the worlds brightest working on it, a solution to most of these potential problems is likely to either have been/ or will be found. But hey, it is still a pretty young technology. We are early (early majority stage now I would say).
You might be surprised! Lots of options for yield these days. Most of my trading stock crypto is now invested into various defi with a very nice yield. Probably 120% per annum if I average it out (and yes I can hear you laughing on the other side of the screen). But I now an OG with 8 figures in crypto and again its all put into lending positions with a more conservative 2-10% per annum - better than bank rates!
I typically stay away from providing liquidity to any pair with USD stable coins as the risk of impermanent loss is huge if your native token shifts meaningfully up or down. It absolutely essential to understand impermanent loss if you're providing liquidity. I've mentioned before I'm super conservative, so all my liquidity is either in a single non-paired native token. Or paired to two tokens on the same chain (eg. Solana) that I think are both going to do well over the medium term. Having said that, most of those pairs and singles are paying out between 10-60% ARR with a very small risk vector. My allocation setting on these is only about 5% of my portfolio, and I consider them a punt more than anything so can afford to take a hit on the holding.
Uniswap v3 has some interesting settings based on impermanent loss. It's pretty great. Use this as a case study https://dailydefi.org/tools/impermanent-loss-calculator/.
As pointed out the risk depends on the platform. With the large exchanges like Bitfinex (yes tether is shit) they have their inbuilt liquidation protocols, so that your capital is always preserved and returned. So the biggest risk is counterparty/platform risk (ie which exchange you have it on). But yea, it is up to each individual to decide their risk tolerance.
For eg I have a good chunk on Blockfi, Celsius and Binance to earn interest.
Agreed Brock. Not to mention large tech not paying their fair share. The loop holes where tech companies have their headquarters in Panama or similar and pay no tax anywhere need to be closed. Very easy to do these days, and the big players are showing the smaller fish how to do it.
That is investigated as it is a large part of the economy. Having said that there is no need to evade tax when there are ways of avoiding it. Working within the current tax law to your advantage is smart and if you don't then you are simply wasting money, no one will benefit.
You just need to look at all the houses and other assets owned by recent immigrants who came here with nothing, opened a restaurant or dairy or painting business etc... and are now multi millionaires. I am sure they will disagree with your claim tax evasion is not a benefit. Why keep only 67% when you can keep 100%?
I hear you but I think you are confusing avoiding tax through fraud in retail with fraud in real estate. While I agree one might lead to another Brock was aiming his outrage at property investors who are in fact largely mum n dad investors. By far property investors will have one or two additional properties which makes it more retirement investment scheme than landlord enterprises.
That's a very top down view of things Carlos. All most people care about when it comes to tax is a level playing field regardless of where your income originates. In the property investment "business", tax free capital gains and the ability to treat an entire asset class as a business are a huge part of the problem. And there's a whole bunch of boomers who worked hard enough to be born at the right time who derive the lions share of their "business income" from that rort. As a result the lions share of our GDP now seems to be attached to property. As we're starting to see by way of gutting the middle class, this is damaging to our economy over the medium term. When the tide of interest rates really start to kick in because of inflation we'll finally see who's swimming naked. No prizes for guessing who will be disproportionately effected though - the ones who have the least equity from being in the game the shortest - aka our poor FHBs. A whole generation is about to get extremely angry. Millennials now make up the majority of voters in NZ, and if they get the keys to the beehive, I'd expect the first thing on the chopping block will be NZ Super given we can't afford it in the future anyway. I've said it before, but as a country we're possibly in the worst shape of any heading into the culmination of the GFC.
TOP had some pretty interesting ideas to attempt to fix this, but we're a pig-headed bunch in this backwater and most of us ignored them.
How pathetic to still blame boomers. Like they got handed everything to them. I'm not born into that generation but took the time to listen to their experiences, it wasn't breeze as you imply it to be. Your same old retoric is no different to Pol Pot or any other ideology to divide. Somethings were easier or harder in all generations but many refuse to accept this, just looking for others to blame. Bullying people who are over 57 to 75 years is just cowardly.
How is expecting a level playing field for tax bullying? And you're the one saying they got everything handed to them, I said they were born at the right time to take advantage of property which is a cold hard fact given that in 1982 they were aged between 18-36.
And it's you're btw. As in, you're pathetic. Godwin's law in full effect.
The same generation back in the 70's voted against a recently created Kiwisaver style superannuation scheme claiming it to be communism. Not prepared to put a little of their own money away for retirement, now that same cohort are reaming the next generations for rents, while expecting them to foot the burgeoning superannuation bill, fund their own tertiary, save for their own retirement and save many multiples of income more for a down payment on a house.
"We paid our taxes all our lives" they proclaim. Oh, so they paid $350k in taxes to cover 20 years of superannuation (65 to life expectancy) at current super rates???? Equivalent of 43 years worth of PAYE for a $50k income earner.
Brock
Despite the common envy myth, it is very hard to avoid evade tax liability on selling property. Both your lawyer and bank have considerable reporting requirements and there are pretty clear footprints on buying and selling property.
Prior to the recent Anom app bust, you would have already noticed a significant increase in prosecutions relating to money laundering related to drug dealing. That has not been due to police investigations but rather red flags raised by AML reporting requirements.
The reality is that as banking becomes more and more electronic and reporting requirements become a lot more efficient then the harder it is going to become to hide income and avoid tax.
I have no doubt that many do get away . . . . but IR are pretty nasty in going back and applying considerable penalties. The reality is that considerable number of bankruptcies are initiated by IR and resulting from their self imposed penalties.
Another news today : "CoreLogic reports the big tax deductibility shock in March and new LVR restrictions on landlords has had no real impact on the red-hot housing market as ANZ reports inflation actually accelerated last month."
Even in March, house prices went up........so what are they waiting........leave the runaway train by own and hope that it will stop by itself...........Can the crisis be solved by ignoring.
To prevent ponzi from stopping 'least regret was adopted so how come to control the ponzi same approach was avoided and instead went for wait and watch.
Initially Mr Orr confirmed that they have information that market is cooling and asked to wait for new data as will suggest the same BUT new data that Mr Orr was waiting for, suggested otherwise, now what. More wait and watch .....?
Brock and Stuart
Seriously; you are simply seeing the current situation from the narrow perspective of FHB and will not grasp the wider implications of RBNZ and Government actions (or lack of) until you start to look at the wider situation and rationale.
RBNZ and the Government are not clowns or bunnies as you claim . . . . you really need to start questioning as to why they are acting in the way that they are. Rather than keeping on with the repeated frustration . . . ask yourselves "why?".
Do that you will start to understand and be able to make more more rational decisions for yourselves.
Thank you for your kind words printer8.
I am so stupid that until this moment it has never occurred to me to ask "why?". But armed with this new way of thinking I am looking forward to conquering the world with rational decisions. You will forever have my gratitude.
P.S. The answers to why don't absolve them from being clowns.
We should be celebrating not lamenting the fact that these broken policies have fast-tracked us into the fourth-wealthiest country in the world.
6.3 percent New Zealanders now US-dollar millionaires.
This report according to Credit Suisse forecasts it is all onwards and upwards for NZ from here, “assuming there isn’t a crash”.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300340466/new-zealanders-fourthrichest…
Living the dream...
But on the electricity front there is no radiation per se. Radiation is related to the nearness to the source of the radiation, basically within one wavelength. It is always related to the frequency by the formula wavelength = speed of light / frequency. The speed of light is 3x108 metres per second. For 50 Hz, which is the frequency of our grid, the wavelength is very long, 6,000 km so no radiation.
There may be some induction tho, perhaps as much as 200-500 volts so you will save money by having that power your house...
It was annoying during the Clark/Cullen government, and to a slightly lesser degree that of Key/English, how when questioned about problems or situations that had arisen, you why & what was to be done etc, they simply provided a commentary about what had happened. This government don’t even want do that. The modus operandi is simply for committees and working groups to formulate announcements for them instead, once the questioned topic has hopefully gone away.
CB central purpose is to stop stock markets and the top 20% losing money.
ironically the top 20% of wealth owners know that markets are massively over-valued and are seeking safe havens (land)
THAT is what drives market higher for house prices. Same in Uk and USA.
It is stalling however in USA now and that will go round world.
CB cannot continue adding monetised debt and cutting rates and it is that which has kept drip feeding the housing market and stock markets since 2012.
Turn that off, or heaven forfend, change its direction (rising rates, or inflation meaning negative GDP growth) and you have the end of the Ponzi.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/23/buyers-strike-sales-of-new-houses-als…
They can and will keep adding monetised debt and cutting rates.
After the number of head-fakes we've seen, I'm not sure why anyone would believe the central banks when they say rates may go up. They don't use rate changes to 'cool the market', they use vague words about rate changes. It kind of amazes me that the words are still taken seriously.
stuart
Not surprising that Government actions would have significant impact.
At the time many on this site posted with glee that due to the new tax requirements investors would be unloading properties and flooding the market. The critical shortage of listings doesn't seem to support that.
As I posted at the time, it would not probably happen and that was supported by what I was hearing. Those investors who had owned properties for some time would not be selling due to significant rent increases so would be getting a good return on their initial investment. For those who had recently purchased they would be discouraged due to the Brightline requirements.
Although the loss of tax deductibility will be a concern to investors this needs to be put into perspective . . . . the reality is that it is currently equivalent to a 1% increase in one's mortgage rate (if uncertain do the maths . . . . have a 3% mortgage, then 1% of that will be a tax return) and most landlords can live with that.
Yes, many small new investors will have been discouraged from entering the market . . . . and that will probably be due to both the likelihood that the days for significant capital gains are unlikely and tax deductibility.
The reality is that those in Government, Treasury and RBNZ are not bunnies (despite what some think) . . . it is not in their interests to see a correction in the market, will have doen the modelling and all have stated that they see a stable housing market (from memory still fairly high for this year and then around 2 or 3% for the following years).
The reality is that those FHB and posters waiting for a significant correction could be simply relying on wishful thinking.
China is now battling a damaging reputation risk as its COVID vaccines are not working well in the developing countries it supplied. It's vaccine diplomacy seems to be backfiring badly. It seems to be another massive own-goal, just like its trade actions against Australia.
Hmmmm...
Germany’s Armin Laschet warns against cold war with China
Berlin and Paris propose reset for EU relations with Moscow
Audaxes both these links are pay-walled.
Australia has leverage in it's resources, they are substitutable but only at a price penalty. Germany (and therefore the EU) needs good trading a relationship with China as its goods and services are highly substitutable for them both in market and domestically. So for them the idea of maintaining good relationships with the worlds largest real economy makes sense. Like little old NZ, there is a limit to the amount of values-based protesting they can do.
Copy headline, paste into search engine, click on search result - all good. FT usually allows one free article before throwing up its paywall. Just clear cookies if you want to read more.
Another tip: clicking through to articles from paywalled media sources' Twitter feeds also works the majority of the time
Alternatively, for a dollar a day one can subscribe to the FT epaper, cheaper than coffee and an excellent read.
Yesterday they noted that Taiwan’s meteoric economy is based on 700,000 migrant workers, possibly in 4 to a room accomodation.
Not surprising, I believe Singapore’s stellar success Is the same and yet we point the finger at mainland China…
No wonder the West appears incapable of repatriating manufacturing..
You will find something like this just about every day in our media.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/former-owner-christchurch-i…?
On a per capita basis that 700,000 equates to a mere 153,000 migrant workers in NZ. We have more than that but they still beat us in exports by 9 to 1 which equates to a 2 to 1 on a per capita basis. Does NZ use immigrants to improve exports or just to provide cheaper services to our wealthy?
Australia has leverage in it's resources, they are substitutable but only at a price penalty.
Value add nations such as France have Australia over a barrel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjxM6unonVY
Money trumps human rights "concerns" as per usual
Bit like Hitler? "He will deal with the lefties" thought the centre right.
yes, and he dealt with all forces of democracy too.
We never learn.
Only a couple of years, if that, I feel b4 China takes Taiwan and USA and EU do more hang wringing and nothing about it
America Should Become a Nation of Renters
The very features that made houses an affordable and stable investment are coming to an end.
Bobbing up cork syndrome as countries re-stock after trade freeze re factory orders.
Question is, with oil rising 45% since beginning of 2021 and inflation rising rapidly, what are CB and gov to do about wages being eroded, and with them, consumer spending??
All that is happening really is that rich countries are reverting to 2019 levels v quickly.
But as costs of trade and freight still sky high compared to 2019, and Delta variant on rise, how many months will it be before, as in UK, the countries concerned are stymied again?
Wages are for poor people. No one is going in to bat for poor people until the collective bargaining power of the last remaining nurses or (insert profession here) get to a point where they can name their price. You might be a boomer with a massive property portfolio, but it's going to cost you an arm and a leg to get a decent sponge bath in NZ in a few years.
I see we're back to the optimism-vernacular again.
Here's a little antidote - https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-06-23/reclaiming-hope-from-the-…
"If we are to reach a post growth society soon enough to avoid both environmental conflagration and social collapse, a large number of relatively wealthy people need to realize they can"
Thanks PDK, good link and article and as per our last conversation much more up my alley. What is being proposed it very helpful in that if we can advance spiritually and culturally, perhaps by asking our social science community to evolve from their current identity and equivalence in all things ethos to align to this "flow in the service of work and satisfaction in work done" we can also then maximise the technology advances we will make at the same time. This gives me even more hope but this view needs a wider audience and changing the wisdom of crowds take the leaders of those crowds to see advantage in it. Currently the social sciences are driving the destruction of our existing and highly successful culture while the financial community devours the last scraps of the feast like the wolves they are.
"Rents came to a grinding halt in May, defying political predictions that changes to rental investment would send rents soaring." But the rentlords told us they would skyrocket as they passed on the extra tax costs they are liable for? Curious..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125543691/rents-flatten-after-governme…
Trademe figures are worthless, they are advertised rents, and number of searches, not actual rents agreed on or actual number of people looking for rentals. The only figure thats any use is the number of listings. MBIE bond data is far better for actual rents paid and number of bonds lodged.
May MBIE rental data https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/rental-price-indexes-may…
The everything bubble continues, investment firms now big in US Real Estate, 60,000 homes to this point, driving up pricing for the banking owners of the investment firms.
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