Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news we have been re-rated lower on currency markets.
We start today noting the US dollar is surging higher in markets convinced the US Fed will start reducing some of its money printing operations soon. The NZD has been particularly hard hit by the move, undermined by the perception offshore that we are losing the pandemic struggle.
In the US, the number of signed contracts to buy existing homes in the US recovered +8.1% in August from July, reversing two months of declines. More sellers are coming into this market.
But last week, American mortgage applications actually fell and home loan interest rates rose slightly. So perhaps the September house sales won't be as strong.
In China, their central bank injected liquidity into their banking system for a ninth consecutive day, adding NZ$22 bln today in reverse repo transactions at 2.35%. But it isn't unusual for them to juice their financial system at this time, ahead of next week's National Day holidays. What is unusual is the quantum that is building up, juiced by the Evergrande contagion.
EU economic sentiment edged higher in September after a fall in August, boosted by optimism among consumers and in the industry and construction sectors, while inflation expectations continued to rise sharply. In fact, German import prices rose at the startling rate of +16.5% in August.
Those jurisdictions that have an active carbon price market are still displaying widely varying pricing. The EU price of €62.60/tonne is equivalent to NZ$106. But the New Zealand price is just $64/tonne. Meanwhile the Chinese carbon market seems to be failing with prices below NZ$10/tonne. In Australia, it is just at AU$26/tonne (NZ$27/tonne). In the present situation, carbon pricing variations like this just reward countries with low prices. The recent run-up in pricing through to August seems to have stalled in September.
The airline industry remains exempt from these taxes, and that aids New Zealand trade. Global demand for international aircargo is strong with volumes up +8.6% in August compared with August 2019. It remains at elevated levels we have seen for the past four months. But it is growth that seems to be passing the Asia/Pacific region by, inhibited by pandemic restrictions in the region.
In New Zealand, the Government has announced a one-off resident visa for up to 165,000 migrants who are currently in the country. This creates a residency pathway for them, including 5,000 health and aged care workers, around 9,000 farm workers, 15,000 in construction, and more than 800 teachers.
In Australia, their regulators have confirmed they are discussing how to clamp down on housing market risks and are preparing to release new lending restriction before Christmas.
And staying in Australia, there were another 863 new community cases in NSW reported yesterday with another 634 not assigned to known clusters. They now have 10,362 active locally acquired cases which is lower, but they had a record high daily death toll yesterday. Victoria reported another 950 new cases yesterday and again topping the NSW level. Queensland is now reporting four new cases from new investigations near their border with NSW. The ACT has 22 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 53% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 24% have now had one shot so far.
In equity markets, Wall Street is trading stronger with the S&P500 recovering +0.7% in its Wednesday afternoon session. Overnight, European markets all rose, led by London's +1.4% gain and trailed by Frankfurt's +0.8% gain. Yesterday the very large Tokyo market fell a sharp -2.2%, but Hong Kong rose by +0.8%, while Shanghai was down -1.8%. The ASX200 fell another -1.1% yesterday while the NZX50 Capital Index slipped another -0.4%.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at just over 1.54% after rising as high as 1.56% overnight and dipping to 1.50%. The US 2-10 rate curve is fractionally steeper at +123 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also a little steeper at +94 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve has steepened further to +148 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today up another +3 bps at 1.49%. The China Govt ten year bond is at 2.89% and little-changed. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.98% and up +1 since this time yesterday and still in a rising trend.
The price of gold will start today down another -US$12 at US$1726/oz and a six month low. Silver has fallen harder, now at back to where it was in June 2020.
And oil prices have changed little overnight, still just on US$75/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just over US$78bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today sharply lower at just on 68.6 USc and almost a full -1c drop since this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are quite soft at just on 95.6 AUc. Against the euro we down to 59.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.6, down -60 bps and down towards the lower end of the 72-74 range of the past eleven months.
The bitcoin price is little-changed since this time yesterday, up +0.6% to be now at US$41,505. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.