Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the price of coal is racing higher, making Australian and American miners rich, all based on extreme stress in both the Chinese and Indian electricity generation sectors.
But first up today, the ICIJ has released a new huge trove of documents that reveal "the inner workings of a shadow economy that benefits the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of everyone else." A small role but crucial role in all this is played by New Zealand's "best place to do business" arrangements, allowing our reputation to shield dodgy dealings by some very wealthy individuals from Russia, China, and Brazil, among others. In Australia, more than 400 people have been identified as involved. The Pacific islands are involved too. This data dump is called the Pandora Papers, a similar expose as the Panama Papers which were released in 2016.
Separately, there are signs the extreme cost of shipping containers is easing, and fast. An executive with a Shanghai freight company said over the weekend that the cost of shipping a 40-foot container from China to the US West Coast dropped by nearly half in the previous four days, going from about US$15,000 to just over US$8,000. The spot rate for shipping to the US East Coast had fallen by more than one-quarter from over US$20,000 to less than US$15,000. The shipping off-season is almost here, the Chinese power crunch has slowed Chinese factory output, and seeing this, speculators are rushing to sell-off their hoarded shipping spots.
In the more broad east Asian region, the World Bank has said that while China’s economy is projected to expand by +8.5% off a very low base, the rest of the region is forecast to grow at just + 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points less than forecast in April 2021. Employment rates and labour force participation have dropped, and as many as 24 million people will not be able to escape poverty in 2021.
China is still on its Golden Week national holiday, and markets don't reopen until Friday.
Japan has a new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, who was their foreign minister. He will lead the ruling party into new elections at some point relatively soon and probably in November. He won the role with overwhelming support amongst his parliamentary colleagues, although he didn't poll as high among the general public.
Japan has ended its Covid state of emergency, and life there is returning to 'normal'.
The US released its PCE inflation data over the weekend, the preferred measure of the Fed and gives a lower reading that their CPI. It was higher at +4.3% in August, the fourth straight month it has been above 4% pa. On a core basis its was up too, but at 3.6% pa it is still its highest in 30 years.
This same data shows consumer spending edged higher, and separate data shows consumer sentiment edged up in late September as well, but the real surprise over the weekend was on factory floors.
The widely-watched ISM PMI for September came in reporting a strong expansion, better than for August and better than expected. Order backlogs remained high as did pricing pressures.
The internationally-benchmarked Markit PMI for the US was equally positive, showing the same attributes even if it did pull back from an even stronger August. Orders and prices both rose in this report at a record pace.
There were factory PMIs reported for most of the main global economies released over the weekend. Overall, the global result was held up by the American result. China struggled to show any expansion. Japan's recent expansion eased off a bit. The EU's faster expansion in August fell back even more, mainly because of a slowing in Germany. Australia jumped out of a sharpish August contraction to a strong expansion in September.
In Congress, they approved kicking the can down the road until December on their debt-limit standoff, confirming bond markets who had dismissed the market risks as actually eventuating.
The EU reported its CPI inflation data for September overnight and that came in +3.4%. Without the energy component it was +1.9%. Both were as expected and both the highest in twelve years.
In commodity markets, the hottest item right now is coal. Both China and India face immediate and severe shortages, and the competition for global supplies is driving prices sharply higher. Australia is a significant beneficiary. The carbon 'cost' is borne by the buying user and not Australia.
We should probably also note that the US Postal Service has stopped sending mail to New Zealand, Australia, and twenty other countries as well - they say, based on how the pandemic is affecting shipping costs. Mail from American senders will be returned to them.
In Australia, house prices have surged at the fastest pace in more than three decades, but looming lending restrictions are expected to slow the breakneck speed of growth in the months ahead.
Staying in Australia, the sharp rise of Delta cases in Victoria continues with 1220 cases reported there yesterday and 11,785 active cases in the state. In NSW there were another 667 new community cases in NSW reported yesterday with another 523 not assigned to known clusters. They now have 9,196 active locally acquired cases which is lower, but they had a 10 daily death toll yesterday. Queensland is now reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 38 new cases. Like New Zealand, Covid is now a disease of the unvaccinated. Overall in Australia, more than 56% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 23% have now had one shot so far.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at just over 1.46% and down -2 bps from this time Saturday and the levels of a week ago. The US 2-10 rate curve is marginally flatter at +120 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also a tad flatter at +85 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is unchanged at +138 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is marginally firmer at 1.50%. The China Govt ten year bond is at 2.89% and unchanged because they are on holiday. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is still at 2.02%.
The price of gold will start today little-changed, up just +US$1 at US$1761/oz.
And oil prices are still at just under US$75.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just on US$79/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today little-changed at just on 69.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are also little-changed at just on 95.6 AUc. Against the euro we still at 59.9 euro cents and back to week-ago levels. That means our TWI-5 starts the week at 73.1, and back at the middle of the 72-74 range of the past eleven months.
The bitcoin price is higher again since this time Saturday, up another +1.2% to be now at US$47,496. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 1.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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99 Comments
Once upon a time coal was vital to power such as HMS Dreadnought and still so essential for industry & heating some forty years later Attlee’s third Labour government starting digging up the estates of the aristocracy to get at it. The name Strongman was quite apt for the ill fated mine in NZ given the commodity after all this time, including a technological revolution, is still going strong. Somethings change and stay the same don’t they.
It's a finite resource, so yes, things will change. But the 'costs' are indeed shouldered by Australia, indeed by the whole planet. Those beach-huddled crowds, not so long ago, were hoist with their own petard.
On a bigger-picture note:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/29/green-growth-econ…
"The various impacts have a common cause: the sheer volume of economic activity. We are doing too much of almost everything, and the world's living systems cannot bear it".
... the price of coal is rising ? ... OMG ! ... we're rich .... NZ has a known resource of 16 billion tonnes of it ....
Oh ... that's right ... we're not allowed to touch our own ....
... gotta pay more & more to import Indonesian coal .... which smart alec thought this one out ?
Silly comment. Once you'd sold it, what would your 'money' be worth?
The real smart alecs were the folk ignorant enough to allow the Bradford approach to energy, and who failed to contemplate rationing themselves, rather than use Huntly to allow their 'you deserve it' mentality.
When asked: Your money or your life? only an idiot says "take my life, I want the money". Have a great day, GBH. Take time to read that Monbiot piece.
Russian coal supplies to Northern China down 40% YTD — Consulate General
According to Russian Consul General in Harbin Vladimir Oschepkov, one of the reasons is difficulties with coal transshipment on the border
Europe requests more coal from Russia, producers ready - sources
Russian Railways, in their turn, have the opportunity to increase coal haulage to Europe, the company’s press service said
D-Day for Auckland. Time to find out how much power those who refuse to get vaccinated or obey lockdowns have over those who did.
Either way, I suspect a substantial number of previously-law abiding Aucklanders will just live a Level 2 life from now on. We did our bit, it's hard to justify taking pain for the sake of those who feel they can just do what they like any longer.
Robbo on New Stalk ZB this morning , when asked what level of vaccination was required to get Orc Land to level 2 , or the South Island to level 1 , did not know .... Shaun Hendys 90 % figure was raised ... still , Robbo did not know ...
Team of 5 million : this guy is your deputy leader !
By now everyone who wants to be jabbed should have been.
If you are old or vulnerable and can get the jab you have had plenty of time to get it.
No need for targeted % rates. Just open up. so yes there will be hospitalisations but predominantly by the old and weak,
The government has had 18months to plan for this inevitable eventuality.
At some point the large demographic of the unvaccinated under 12s will decide this .
An extrapolation of September data from Singapore . Over 70s who make up less than 10 percent of the population, accounted for 44 percent of hospitalizations , 56 percent of those that required supplemental oxygen , 63 percent of ICU cases ,82 percent of deaths. 36 percent of those deaths were fully vaccinated. Of those deaths 97 percent had significant underlying medical conditions. At 83 percent, surprisingly, they are the least vaccinated of any age group other than those under 12 .
Perhaps New Zealand should lock up the over 70s only.
... I agree ... no need to shout ... ... the government needs to stop differing , and lay out a definitive plan : get jabbed by December 1'st ... then we fully open up ...
But .... Arderns government has a dreadful record of not delivering , not delivering on time .... it's all softly softly ..." lets be kind ... team of 5 million " spin ...
I’m a farmer. I vaccinate my stock at my will such is my power over them. I’ve no interest in being treated like livestock. I believe in vaccination and my freedom to choose. I value freedom above all else. I’m on Auckland’s side . Let’s move on. I’ll not get into an argument over it.
... it is believed that the Chinese were using vaccines in the 1600's .... the Europeans in the 1700's .... a chap called Jenner is known to have successfully used smallpox vaccines in 1796 ...
If 225 years of successful use of vaccines isn't enough to convince some people of their efficacy & safety , nothing will ...
swampweta,
'I value freedom above all else'. What does that mean? None of us has complete freedom do do just as we want. That is a definition of anarchy. You want the freedom to drive on the right hand side of the road? We have laws against that. You want the freedom to smoke in a pub? We have laws against that.
I could go on, but perhaps you see my point. You will not be able to fly internationally and perhaps domestically, without a vaccine passport.
Ridiculous analogy backed by flawed reasoning and an ignorant belief that your flawed reasoning is as valid as those of the medical profession. One assumes this person will encourage their children to get exposure to smallpox and polio, just so "they aren't treated like cattle". What's worse is that this got 12 upvotes, we truly are doomed if large groups of people have such horrific critical thinking skills.
While some in Auckland have followed the rules, it is equally clear that there are many self entitled who have not, and these are the ones who need to be locked down, hard! COVID is now in Hamilton and possibly further south, so the Government's gamble may bite them! So please don't talk about Auckland as a whole as doing the hard yards, because many haven't, and they are a threat to the rest of us.
We have to stop treating Maori like children, and this comment is aimed that the Maori political lobby who decry the lack of prioritisation of Maori for vaccination. Peeni Henare was correct in his comment that Maori had to own that, but I understand he has been chastised for making it. Plus I suggest those who are promoting the myths that stop people getting vaccinated should be able to be prosecuted.
Listened to a lady being interviewed on RNZ last week. She caught COVID last March at the cattle conference down south, and still has an impacted immune system and other lasting impacts. This needs to be stopped, and to do that everyone needs to do the job!
"So please don't talk about Auckland as a whole as doing the hard yards, because many haven't, and they are a threat to the rest of us."
There are plenty of places around the country with lower vaccination rates than Auckland. And that 15% in Auckland who aren't are a threat to everyone, including Aucklanders. But you can't expect Auckland to put their lives on hold forever because some won't engage and because people outside the Auckland region haven't got their act together and used this time to get vaccinated. Otherwise there's no way out of this.
I understand your argument GV, but do you expect the rest of the country to put their health at risk because a few Aucklanders won't follow the rules? That minority are screwing everyone, but the only way to get this sorted is to lock them down hard. currently that can only be done by borders, but why not a vaccine certificate? Make the right at get out and about be dependent on a vaccine certificate.
I would accept that if the rest of the country was far ahead of Auckland in terms of vaccinations. They are not. At some point you are locking down Auckland for the protection of those outside it who refuse to do their part. Given the enormous social and financial costs of lockdowns, that is not something you can morally justify on an ongoing basis.
Perhaps Aucklanders need to step up their policing of those following the rules? When will communities stop relying on the police to identify the rule breakers and start dobbing in them themselves? The Police cannot be everywhere, but with a little help they can achieve a lot more.
The gang shit and Brian Tamaki makes front page news. I'm not sure what you expect every day Aucklanders to do about it while still observing lockdowns if the police won't intervene.
Meanwhile, there's nothing stopping the rest of the country getting their shit together with getting vaccinated. Again, you can't morally justify locking down Aucklanders when they're doing a better job of it than everyone else who just gets to live their lives.
Just what we need, more Division in society.
Maybe Labour could give the go ahead for Pro-vax vigilante groups to capture and forcibly vaccinate the inferior unvaccinated scum. Would that make everyone happy?
or we could just group up the unvaccinated together in anti-vax camps. They could go through some sort of re-education programme until they make the "right" decision.
Obviously I have put some extreme examples. But, everyone wonders how and why good people do bad things, well it starts with a PM subtly changing the message and people interpreting them in their own way...
I am all for individual freedom. So we should not be held to ransom by a minority of un-vaccinated. This means that we should open the whole country, including Auckland, once vaccination levels reach a reasonable threshold, and leave the un-vaccinated alone, so that they can exercise their freedom of choice, as stupid and moronic their choice may be.
But the un-vaccinated should not then come whinging to the public health system once they get infected. PERSONAL FREEDOM COMES WITH PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY. A law should exclude the un-vaccinated from public-funded treatment of any Covid-related illness (with the exception of the unlucky ones who cannot be vaccinated for genuine medical reasons, who deserve all the support they need).
Moreover, employers should also have the freedom to safeguard their own, their employees' and customers' health and be free to immediately sack any un-vaccinated employee - maybe after a short grace period for the employee to get vaccinated (with exceptions for medical reasons). Bars and restaurants and any public venue, airlines etc should also have the freedom to ban the un-vaccinated, for the same health safeguarding reasons.
Then let the un-vaccinated freely live the consequences of their choice, for as long as they do not crowd the public health system as a result of their stupidity.
But the un-vaccinated should not then come whinging to the public health system once they get infected. PERSONAL FREEDOM COMES WITH PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY.
I don't disagree but it is a slippery slope.
Shoulds drunks stop getting healthcare? Smokers? Should people not vaccinated against x or y also be exempt? Should criminals be exempt, after all they broke societal rules? People speeding? People taking drugs? Overusing devices (leads to eye issues, obesity, etc...)?
Where does it stop, a family that chose to not abort a fetus with known health issues? should the child be exempt?
The fact is our society has some level of Social Responsibility. We should not change that fundamentally for one virus.You exempt even one single thing, and the legal framework is there to exempt many others. Perhaps the next one might be one you don't support.
People do need to be accountable for the consequences of their choices; smokers definitely (I am an ex-smoker) they choose to do it in the face of overwhelming information as to the effects, drunks too. but there can be a staged process where they are assisted off their addiction, but failure has a price and that can be a reduced priority in the health system.
... I reckon the government should give $ 500 cash to every person who's been double jabbed ... we'd pass that 90 % vaccination figure in no time flat .... open up the country , open the borders , scrap MIQ ....
Best $ 2.5 billion that Ardern's lot would have spent !
... yes , there'll be some extra costs ... but , as you say , it'll be quicker & cheaper than rolling lockdowns ... Robbo's borrowing $ 1 billion per week to keep the economy running ... we could be open for business , open to the world , free to fly in & out by December 1'st : the start of summer ...
Dare to dream ... or , submit to more bureaucrats & their elimination scheme ?
I've been running this concept through a few different channels. $70 first shot, $50 second shot will get the job done. I think only offered on provision of a community services card as people close to the poverty line are those with really poor health stats that are going to overload the health system.
People with money can afford 1. To eat well & look after themselves or get private health services to address their existing health concerns, and 2. Have enough education to not believe the rubbish online about vaccinations. So they are not our high risk group.
How about also doing the opposite, maybe in conjunction with financial incentives: a heavy supplementary income tax on the un-vaccinated, to cover for the healthcare costs and other expenses caused by their choice. After all, the Government already heavily taxes alcohol and cigarettes for similar reasons.
We could also have all future benefits payments conditional on the vaccination status.
All the above with the due exceptions (people who can't get vaccinated for medical reasons).
Now now. It's a cultural rule in NZ that you can't say anything negative about the lazy, the slackers and the drones.
It's only proper to blame the government, and to expect the 'system' to loop ever more complicated loops to find the way the drones will assist the community.
But don't ever whisper anything negative about them.
I wonder how much it costs Huntly to generate electricity including having to pay for carbon credits. There must surely be a time when Genesis says its too expensive to generate electricity, even using Indonesian coal. I Wouldn't be surprised if the there is some behind the scenes govt nudging to keep it generating at the expense of profits and hence dividend to the govt. Maybe even Indonesian coal is getting on the high side now.
There hasn't been enough energy going into the global system to underwrite 'spending' expectations, for over a decade. The demand trend is exponential, feed-back loops are in progress ditto. Essentially, society can no longer afford itself. I don't see any evidence of Government awareness of this.
I think they are doing what NZ Governments have been doing for 3 decades; paying homage to a flawed ideology, and playing whack-a-mole as problems arise.
Spot pricing is a pretty good indicator. The hydro generators bid price is probably slightly below what they estimate the most expensive generator's price is. Coal is the most expensive way to generate electricity as well as being the worst for greenhouse gas emissions. Tt only gets used when demand > supply from other sources plus it is dispatchable (it doesn't take as long to get online).
I see you continue to propagate gov myth that vaccinated do not catch CV19. They do and only 44% of NZ pop fully vaccinated. Plus the default assumption that all those with infection know they have it from a test. Which is not a known at all.
Vacc makes you 4 times less likely to get it and 7 times less likely to go to hospital. Investors are meant to understand concept of relative risk. Gov and you are not analysing this
Stating daily that these are the new number of cases based solely on those tested and thereby implying these to be the only cases, is in my opinion quite deceitful. In fact there are more than likely more untested cases out there than those discovered by testing, and that is complicated by amongst the former, the absence or slight nature, of any symptoms.
... so , by being jabbed I've got just one fourth the risk of catching Covid-19 ... one seventh the risk of being hospitalized by C19 if I do catch it .... and zero % of suffering long-tail C19 ...
And the vaccine is free ! ... it's a no-brainer isn't it ... the bargain of the century ...
The current daily data from Singapore Ministry of Health does not support those claims. In particular if you are over the age of 70 or you are over 70 and you have underlying health conditions. Although 98.1 percent of all those tested positive in Singapore during the month of September, had no or mild symptoms, when the over 70 age group is removed from the data 99.3 percent of those under the age of 70 had no or mild symptoms. The data is so skewed towards one age group - the over 70s, whether it be Hospitalization, Supplementary oxygen , Intensive care or deaths that using it as a barometer for all the population is wrong.
Mike the Govt are not perpetrating that myth, they have made it clear that the spread is stifled, not stamped out. But as you indicate the impacts are significantly less and much easier to control and manage with everyone vaccinated, and that is their goal. Try not to lose sight of the big picture, while you're burying yourself in the data.
The problem with that government message is that it is laced up with the “elimination” goal. Minister Hipkins said emphatically to Hoskins late last week that elimination was still being targeted, still possible. But after nigh on 8 weeks Delta is still arriving in numbers daily. That that insistence is ill judged is pretty damn clear to anybody who cares to think about, and by blundering on with it, the government simply undermines the credibility of what else they spout. I mean if you read Stuff yesterday the PM quoted as “the original outbreak we dealt with in Auckland, through the efforts of Aucklanders, has essentially ended. And what we see now is a subsequent outbreak that has emerged.” What the hell does that mean? Big surprise to most Aucklanders one can only imagine that all those linked cases have suddenly lost their links.
I agree that the Government's comms on this is poor. But Vaccination is just a first step or layer in an elimination strategy. Elimination was never going to happen without vaccination, but once the spread rate (R) and virulity is controlled then other measures, including boosters will need to be applied to eliminate it.
Nobody travels without a vaccine certificate. In the 70's prior to being deployed by the Airforce I had a vaccine certificate. I still have it. We couldn't get into some places including Singapore and Malaysia unless we had all the vaccinations. Just reinstate them. I could be done electronically and secure linked to your passport these days.
One of my concerns is the forgery of Vaccine certificates and even test results. I believe the solution there is to require all test labs to be licensed and connected and maintain electronic files held centrally and securely. That way any authority anywhere would be able to verify testing and results, and vaccinations easily.
JA changed the tone this morning on RNZ , it is changing to living with the virus but she is pushing for 90% to give us the best outcomes before opening up
The Government always said elimination was used while vaccinating, they’re now looking at what the response will be once vaccination rates are high.
Controlling outbreaks with lockdowns was “not our forever”. “It won’t always be like this,” Ardern said.
The US released its PCE inflation data over the weekend, the preferred measure of the Fed and gives a lower reading that their CPI. It was higher at +4.3% in August, the fourth straight month it has been above 4% pa. On a core basis its was up too, but at 3.6% pa it is still its highest in 30 years.
No Inflation Without Income; There’s No Income
Real Personal Income excluding Transfer Receipts, the BEA’s private side income proxy, hasn’t budged since last October. The latest figures for August 2021, released today, were actually less than July’s; where declines in this series are typically associated with recessions, near recessions at the very least.
The EU reported its CPI inflation data for September overnight and that came in +3.4%. Without the energy component it was +1.9%.
That's good! We'll just tell people that if they want to avoid most inflation they just need to live in darkness, not drive their cars, not buy manufactured products, not turn the heating on, not buy food made with fertilizer etc.
Sometimes I wonder if economist live in the same world the rest of us do, you cannot practically avoid energy expenditure because our society and economic system are fundamentally dependent on it.
You're 5 times less likely to catch it, even if you do catch it you're less likely to pass it on and much less likely to end up hospitalised or dead.
NSW are nearly up to 90% one shot and even though the contact tracers are overwhelmed and lockdown less strict than initially, case numbers are dropping.
100 percent myth.
14 day data Singapore September 1 2021 local cases by age group and vaccination status
https://www.moh.gov.sg/images/librariesprovider5/covid-19-chart-(pr)/fi…
Vaccination rates https://www.moh.gov.sg/images/librariesprovider5/covid-19-chart-(pr)/fi…
Good graph but some perspective required. If we assume a 90% vaccination rate then the graph basically lays out the vaccine is useless. It shows you just as likely to get Covid with the vax as without the vax. Still not enough data out there that I'm interested in and could you trust it anyway ?
Carlos, absolutely , all the data can be and is being used as each government decides. The charts above do not include anyone that was not tested, or local factors including a large expatriate workforce Perhaps the percentages would change, between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. No one knows. The point of the graph was not to show whether the vaccine is 'useless" but to dispel the myth that those vaccinated are multiple times less likely to get covid when compared to those unvaccinated. Given that Singapore reached 80-90 percent vaccination rates early, I find their data more timely than most to form my own views
Can I draw your attention to the data analysis done by Newsroom. Lots of cases were infected within a week of the first jab so their immune response wasn't robust.Because peak efficacy of each of the covid jabs doesn't peak until 2 weeks after when you crunch the numbers to allow for this the risks drop way down. Pure numbers don't get you all the way there.
This is why Jacinda scare tactics will backfire.
vaccination does not make you safe and free but does reduce risk. She keeps suggesting it makes us safe. Not true as figs in uk and Singapore and Israel clearly show
90% of pop and only 65% (if get to that) of Maori will not eliminate CV19. Denial.
Vaccination is not a shield that prevents the virus entering the body, it just makes the body kill it off quicker, before it can cause bad outcomes. So, yes, you can catch COVID if you are vaccinated but it is short lived and you will shed less virus to infect others than if you were unvaccinated.
The goal is to get the effective R number under 1 so, over time. the virus stops spreading. This needs high vaccination rates in the population.
First reference to the pandora papers I have seen, mainstream media isn't covering this or nz role in this but eager to cover nz as an easy place to do business (read launder money ). Mainly lead by our real estate industry assisted by ease of setting up trusts with no registration information required .
For a really solid look at global logistics chains, see this from Rabobank via ZH. Far more nuanced than anything else I have come across. Too Big to Sail. .
And funny, innit, that when the lights go out, the heating goes cold, and the factories stop whirring, the green wash vanishes and natgas, coal and lignite are begged, beseeched and subsidized to Save Us. Poster children: China, Europe, Britain, India.....
"Like New Zealand, Covid is now a disease of the unvaccinated."
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/10/03/world/covid-delta-variant-vacci…
Yeah right.
People die ... regardless ... whatever we do ... we get old ... some are careless about their diet or exercise ... some smoke .... so what ? ... that doesn't alter the fact that being vaccinated greatly reduces your risk from serious harm if Covid-19 catches you ... if you want to spare our health system from being further swamped , get the jab ...
just pointing out the lie. the covid19 vaccine is a tool the frail elderly or the metabolically unhealthy individual can use to help protect himself/herself from severe covid19. If your risk of severe covid is very low (young and healthy), halving it by taking a drug we do not know much about does not make much sense to me.
I don't believe I keep having to explain this. Dying is not the only concern with COVID. You need to stop admiring the mirror and start paying attention. People who are catching COVID, not just the elderly and vulnerable, are suffering long term impacts that are not pleasant. There is 'Long COVID' but I suspect that this is not that but a lesser long term impact. A lady interviewed on RNZ last week caught her dose at the farming conference down south last March (2020). She did not claim to be suffering from 'Long COVID' but did talk about an impacted immune system, sense of smell and taste, and persistent breathlessness. The vaccination may stop you dying, it may even prevent the symptoms from being very severe, but it may not stop ongoing suffering as a result of catching it. It will certainly reduce the number you can spread it to, making it easier for authorities to clamp down on it and eventually eliminate it.
Those who are not are already a million dollar plus life long cost to their families and far more than a billion dollar cost to the country & govt. If you think our health system is free you should check the bills again and if you think you will be fine living without income and a home think again because the govt does not support most of those with long term health damage to live even a degrading level of life in most cases. The loss to businesses often of skilled younger employees is high when it comes to long covid considering NZ businesses have a huge risk of being hit by the bus with staff turnover.
Enlightening tour of crumbling Chinese real estate here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKbLB_T-IjY
Given the leverage and huge "values" compared to incomes, there must surely be a giant collapse to come.
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