Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that perhaps there is a 'long covid' problem for economies too.
But first, in the US jobless claims fell more than expected last week to +258,900 (actual) and a weekly drop of more than -40,000. That takes the total number of people on these programs to under 2.4 mln, the lowest since the start of the pandemic, and back closer to the 'normal' level before the coronavirus crisis.
There was a small uptick in layoffs in September from August, but the quarter end totals were actually the lowest quarter since 1997.
All eyes are now on tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls report. Analysts see a rise of +500,000, taking the total employed level to 147.4 mln and a gain of +7 mln in a year, but still -2.3 mln fewer than just before the onset of the current crisis.
In Congress, a deal to kick the can along to December relieves their debt ceiling problems for a few more weeks. This involves a US$480 bln increase to the limit.
China's FX reserves were pretty stable in September at just on US$3.2 tln even though that was fractionally lower than expected.
But Asia’s junk-bond market suffered through another wave of selling, which pushed prices of many Chinese developers’ bonds further into distressed territory.
A new study of long Covid found even people who were never sick enough to need hospitalisation are in danger of developing heart failure and deadly blood clots a year later.
And now economists are wondering whether there will be a long Covid effect in what they will see as nations struggle to regain what they lost. That is particularly the view from China.
For the first time since April, the cost of container shipping freight has fallen, but it is still double what it was back then. Prices from China are now about ten times the rate than prices to China. For bulk cargoes, the Baltic Dry Index continues to rise however and is now at a 13 year high.
And in Australia, the explosion of Delta cases in Victoria has risen to 1638 cases reported there yesterday in a "very serious jump". There are now 15,074 active cases in the state. In NSW there were another 587 new community cases reported yesterday with another 458 not assigned to known clusters. They now have 7,853 active locally acquired cases which is lower, but they had 8 deaths yesterday, now featuring younger patients. Queensland is now reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 41 new cases, including babies. Overall in Australia, more than 58% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 22% have now had one shot so far.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at just over 1.57% and up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The US 2-10 rate curve is steeper at +125 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also steeper at +92 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is much steeper at +153 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is +1 bp firmer at 1.57%. The China Govt ten year bond remains unchanged at 2.89%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is also little-changed at 2.00%.
Equity markets started up on Wall Street and have stayed up, with the S&P500 up +1.2% in early afternoon trade in the Thursday session and taking the weekly gain to +1.5% so far. Overnight, European markets rose +1.6% on average across the board. Yesterday, the very large Tokyo market rose +0.5% while the Hong Kong had a very strong day, gaining +3.1% to be now +0.7% ahead for the week. Shanghai will reopen later today and their catchup will be of interest. The ASX200 ended yesterday up +0.7% to just make back the prior day's drop. The NZX50 fell another -0.5% yesterday to be down -1.3% so far this week.
The price of gold will start today little-changed again, down -US$4 at US$1758/oz.
And oil prices are firmish today, up +US$1 to just under US$78/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just over US$81.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today firmer at just on 69.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are down another -40 bps to 94.8 AUc. Against the euro we firm at 60 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today down just on 73, and right in the middle of the 72-74 range of the past eleven months.
The bitcoin price is marginally lower than this time yesterday, down -1.1% to be now at US$54,162. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/-2.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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102 Comments
Long COVID for the deniers who think recovery from COVID will be total. I have indicated before that many reports from overseas and, recently, here in NZ that there were indications that COVID leaves legacy harm in the body, that may last a lifetime, and my thought is that lifetime may possibly be abbreviated because of it (think blood clots in the heart muscles). I strongly support the elimination strategy for now as science is struggling to get ahead of this. Even if vaccinated, we can still catch it and therefore end up with the legacy harm even if it is less than a full blown case may have. And as it mutates it is able to attack the young more. So personally I want to see it eliminated.
Is this every covid case? The vast majority of anecdotal covid cases do not seem concerned with their recovery and athletes are able to carry on at the same level of sport. Every ailment will leave some trace for a while.
I keep seeing this but until its published with numbers is just fear creation. The MSM could be reporting every case that's willing to be interviewed they find as far I am concerned.
Apparently anxiety is a common symptom of long Covid. I'm no Sigmund Freud but me thinks this seams more like a metal health issue.
It is almost a self fulfilling prophecy really. In that a recovered covid patient is continually anxious about getting long Covid. They are therefore diagnosed with anxiety over this continual state of anxiousness. In effect if you are really worried about getting long Covid you will get long Covid. Hmmmm
We don't need to share reckons on here, real life scientists publish peer reviewed research on these things. This review of reviews (aka meta analysis) is an easy place to start: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95565-8/figures/2
80% seems exceptionally high. Under the results section I found the following: "However, most studies were mixed mild, moderate, and severe patients—none of the studies were stratified by different by severity." That figure is not fit to publish without context, I don't think anyone's risk could be modelled based on it alone. 12 Weeks is not necessary forever.
From the UK
"While 37.7% of 76,155 symptomatic individuals post COVID-19 experienced at least one symptom, 14.8% experienced three or more symptoms that lasted 12 weeks or more.
Risk factors identified for persistent symptoms at 12 weeks or beyond, which is suggestive of long COVID, were female sex, obesity, and hospitalization due to COVID-19, with strong evidence for the risk increasing with age. There was also additional evidence for an increased risk in lower-income, smoking / vaping, and healthcare worker populations. People of Asian ethnicity were found to have a lower risk."
Much of the long-covid can be explained by the effects of widespread microclots affecting vital organs,especially brain , heart and lungs and pancreas, and the complex after effects of the body's immune response to this horrid bug.
Incidence of congestive heart failure and dementia , diabetes and respiratory failure etc will take years to flesh out maybe.
Would seem like a disease best prevented, so go get jabbed
I believe the acknowledged definition of Long Covid, is that symptoms persist for more than 14 days.
The symptoms are all those associated with Covid. The most common long covid symptoms (some still present in people infected in the first round last year) include:
- Loss of Taste
- Loss of Smell
- Lung/respiratory tract damage
- Chronic Fatigue
Indications are that the first three may be permanent in some people.
It appears that Long Covid tends to be more prevalent in those that were hospitalised.
... so , Julie-Anne Genter must've had Covid-19 & be suffering long covid ...
Her interview last night on synthetic drugs was a shocker ... ummm .... ahhh .... " I didn't know you were going to ask me that " ... it was a train wreck !
Congrats to Maiki Sherman for showing Genter up for being grossly ignorant in a subject which she helped draft up a bill for parliament , roadside drug testing ...
... the mother of all pregnant pauses .... except , the questions were pretty basic , and it directly pertains to the appalling roadside drug testing bill that she and Stuart Nash collaborated on ...
Medical experts and drug specialists have condemned the bill .... just one more in a long list of " brain fog " ideas that Jacinda's government has forced upon us ...
Also other major symptoms in people who were previously healthy fit and young is heart tachycardia & rhythm malfunctions, dysautonomia, orthostatic issues, impaired immune responses including inflammation and new allergies, IBS/IBD, extreme nausea, pain, headaches, post-exertion malaise etc (aka all part of chronic fatigue and with those issues likely to result in severe fatigue). Long covid frequently affects those who are young and fit (inc sports athletes, high skill roles, high physical labour roles, etc). In the UK stats suggest that it would be over a million now severely disabled with higher rates around those from mid 20's to 60's. Loss of income and those people now requiring extra medical support, (specialist treatment, carer support as some now cannot even cook, bathe themselves or use the toilet unaided) is a severe economic & financial cost to families. Most will not be able to exercise the disease away and it often results in far worse health outcomes and further disablement if they try (as it can cause increased damage and symptoms). Hence why those with the most fitness related practices and mantras can be more severely affected long term as they try to work out the issues instead of recommended advice.
....and England has gone with a single dose for under 15s. Side effects from the second dose are a higher risk than hospitalisation from the virus in this age group (both very low risks). If I am reading the stats correctly. Having one dose is better than no vaccine though.
Except long covid is more likely and more severe in fit and healthy people who have optimum weight or are underweight. Because of long covid these people often experience rapid weight loss to dangerous levels (as the severe nausea and heart issues result in both loss of food and loss of appetite and the severe immune responses and bowel issues result in pain, bleeding, IBD, anaphylaxis etc in response to certain foods). Long covid sufferers often are prescribed immune system treatments, low allergen/mast diets, are encouraged to eat more fat and protein or forced to liquid food intervention.
Thanks.
I am not wanting to trivialize covid - it's clearly a nasty virus, and nastier than flu. And certainly for some patients can have nasty long term effects.
But we need to look at the limitations of a study like this which was a meta analysis which acknowledged many limitations with the studies it looked at - for example studies not distinguishing between patients with mild versus serious symptoms.
Also it was following from 2 weeks after the infection - may I suggest that even a moderate to bad dose of the flu or a bad cold will often have lingering effects after 2 weeks? I had a really bad cough a few years back, that didn't resolve until a long time after the infection had passed.
Again, by no means trivializing this nasty little bug, but at the same time it's effects are tending to be exaggerated.
Is there any data that shows vaccinations reducing the incidence of 'long covid' symptoms?
Or polio? It's not ridiculous, but flu is a good analogy because it mutates so fast, and yes it has mutated into something less harmful, although it still kills. But are you certain that COVID will do that to? So far it has mutated, but is it less dangerous? It is killing younger and healthy people now, not just old and vulnerable. Be a denier if you want, but don't complain you weren't warned when it comes knocking, and don't come to my town when you've got it, you won't be welcome!
Besides science is still trying to find a way to eliminate the flu. That was the intent behind mRNA vaccines, but COVID came along first.
... the list of diseases eliminated or nearly so by vaccines ought to wake up the anti-vaxxers .... from smallpox .... rabies ... rubella ... whooping cough , polio , measles ... these nasties are only kept alive by the action , or inaction , of anti-vaxxers ... the science has been around for 400 years ....
So you meant eliminate above as in not eliminate?...
maybe before spouting off about antivaxers you might want to try doing some learning.. like where are these leaky vaccines taking us?... see mareks disease
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1…
Elimination now seems out of reach, but I agree we should strongly avoid "let 'er rip". Modelling implies that if we can get our vaccination rates high enough (and that includes the 5-12s not yet eligible) we can get R<1 and new cases will fizzle rather than spread.
Good question GBH. Given the international experiences in treating Covid, what drugs and pharmaceuticals has our government stocked up on to treat those that get infected in order to reduce hospital admissions and/or the length of them. And whilst asking that how, about if the GPs have been canvassed and enlisted and briefed in this regard.
My brother in London got Covid in March 2020. It 's been heartbreaking watching a 48 year old marathon runner reduced to being unable to play soccer with his son. His lungs are so damaged from Covid that day to day living can be a struggle as he simply can't get enough oxygen into his system. He never went to hospital and had what he would describe as a serious flu when recovering from covid. His current predicament is all due to long Covid.
He has worked in marketing for an energy (oil) company for 25 years, so has extensive medical records as they provide 6 monthly full medicals. He's gone from having a body that is 10yrs younger than his age to one that is 20yrs older. This is all due to long Covid.
Yes, he's incredibly unlucky, but he's definitely not an outlier. He's part of a study of over 20,000 cases of long Covid in the UK that they are tracking to understand long term implications.
Get vaccinated, it might save you from the hell my brother is going through....
Crazy
Sad for your brother’s experience. I have had family in a similar situation - got Alpha when overseas in March 2020.
Those who dismiss Covid and attempts by Government to limit it clearly have not had close experience and suffer from memory loss as to how left unchecked it overwhelmed the New York hospital system.
Yep, he was sick, but nothing out of the ordinary. I zoomed with him everyday during his illness and I never once thought he was in need of medical attention. He just looked like he had the flu and went through the normal stages of starting to feel sick, feeling like crap and then starting to come right. He was well on the mend after 7 or so days. He was in contact with the company GP and they weren't concerned unless he started to have difficulty breathing - this never happened.
Just to add a bit more context. It was only when he went for his first walk after having covid that he thought something was wrong. He only got 100 metres before he felt exhausted. He got home and slept for several hours and felt OK afterwards. Tried the same thing the next day and got the same result. It was at this point the company GP became interested as he had another couple of patients with a similar situation. This was before anyone knew that long Covid was a thing. He then had a variety of tests and that is when they found considerable damage to his lungs. They believe that his very high fitness level before getting covid is what prevented him from having a serious breathing issue during his illness, but it did plenty of damage. He's now lost his buffer of aerobic fitness and he's stuffed.
So going from being a marathon runner and not being able to walk 100 metres before exhaustion would suggest your brother was having very significant respiratory problems at some point in between , and the company GP was not concerned,( irrespective of a Covid diagnosis) nor yourself or your brother or his family ?
I had a nasty cold/RSV type thing this winter which knocked me out for a couple of days and I got tired very quickly playing sport for a couple of weeks after. Are you upset that I didn't go to Hospital or to my GP?
Happy to report I was back to normal after a few weeks. Anecdotally, my very health brother overseas and the rest of his family caught Covid and he struggled to keep up with the kids for quite a while afterwards.
" The guy was a marathon runner who was exhausted after walking 100 metres" is a little different to your anecdotes. The United Kingdom was on lockdown in March 2020 for a notifiable disease and the company doctor was not concerned.
Given you never went to the GP/hospital its probably likely, given the tone, you were never tested for the cold/virus that knocked you around a bit.
Long covid also affected a family member working in the UK; went from high fitness prone engineer & carer to not being able to leave the house and only able to work remotely partime every second or third day. They had severe heart, immune system & gut damage and are now on heavy drugs just to get by. They have lost so much weight but then again the disease is quite new for them and they are not as severely affected as most people (also extremely lucky to have an employer willing to have them only work 2-3 days a week).
Lead up to Xmas? Yes the next 4 weeks or so are critical indeed. Would seem inevitable that Delta will continue to creep ever onward and as it does the government will impose lockdowns on the regions as they succumb. This is demonstrated by Auckland’s status after nigh on 8 weeks worth. Therefore putting those aspects together, and Xmas being only 11 weeks hence, it is not looking healthy for the Xmas trade retail wise and undoubtedly that will be the final straw on the already frail back of many retailers and businesses.
Every few years, central bankers and Economists assuredly decree how a golden age is imminent, right around the corner. They steady themselves for the celebration, the parade which they anticipate will follow when all “emergency” programs are finally removed. Taper then terminate QE’s, hike rates, finally normalization across all global finance.
And every few years it eventually becomes clear this isn’t going to happen. But why? No one ever says. They promise and guarantee, the media gets hysterical about it…and then dead silence.
People have been led astray and not just for the one thing, inflation. First of all, the intense focus on inflation and fearing inflation has distorted our ability to read and interpret even basic data.
It starts with the stuff you do see which gets hyped sky-high by both proponents and critics alike; both, actually, not that they know it, falling on the same side as one another. Each declares an age of “easy money” from the Federal Reserve or ECB, whomever else. Proponents merely say there’s enough “accommodation” while critics charge it’s only ever way too much “money printing.” Link
I basically just use Xmas as a time to get something we needed anyway and use that as an excuse. My 13 year old TV will die one day - replacing it will be an Xmas present for our family to each other etc.
Also while family is important, the Xmas Day lunch/dinner to me is where the real action is.
I was reading a publication examining the declining efficiency of the pfizer vaccine over time.
Infection prevention from 2 shots falls to 47% after 5 months. Protection against hospitalisation seems to hold up well. I would think booster shots will be necessary every 6 months. I wonder how long we can maintain this level of commitment to vaccinations.
Publication (funded by Pfizer) here if you’re interested https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext
... fallen victim to Covid-19 for a second time : our Canterbury show ... the A&P show has been cancelled ... regardless that we haven't had a single C19 community case in the whole south island for .... for .... all of 2021 at least , perhaps a whole 12 months.. . Cup & Show week will be just Cup .... sadly ...
I still feel the Govt should have made their lockdown rollback more case-by-case with regards to who is vaccinated vs. who is not. I don't give a shit about festivals and anyone who does at my age is likely some alt-hippy edgelord who isn't likely to get vaccinated. There really needs to be more "once you're double-jabbed, you can do do this and this and this" than vague allusions to yet more week-by-week arbitrary frameworks with no actual targets.
I actually think they need to look more at demographics. Who cares if the under 30s are vaccinated or not, they are essentially ultra low risk anyway. If the bulk of at risk i.e. over 60s are vaccinated then we can move.
Like all vaccines you should get it, but if not the risk is on you. We need to just move on.
44 newly confirmed Covid-19 cases today ... a relatively large number by our standards .... so , where is Jacinda ... no one on the 1 o'clock Pulpit of Propaganda ?
... she's scarpered ... run for the hills .... waiting for better results ? .... waiting for Tova & Jessica ?
95.9 percent of those in hospital had been unvaccinated two weeks prior to testing positive. Just four had received a single shot at least two weeks before they were tested and none were fully vaccinated.
For cases, nearly nine in 10 were unvaccinated two weeks before they returned a positive test result. Just over 7 percent had received one shot and the remaining 3 percent had received two shots at least a fortnight prior to testing positive.
This echoes a pattern overseas, where many countries with 50 to 60 percent of their populations vaccinated are experiencing new waves that have been dubbed the "pandemic of the unvaccinated".
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/delta-outbreak-four-in-five-cases-unvaccinat…
This weekend would be a good time for you and your whanau to get your shot Belle, before it's too late.
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