Economic weather report: When will the RBNZ hike the OCR?

Click here to watch today's video. Bernard Hickey delivers an economic weather report in association with ASB. Today's report looks at whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will have to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) sooner than it has been indicating, despite RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard saying the central bank expects to leave the OCR at or below its current 2.5% until the latter part of 2010. Despite this repeated statement from the RBNZ, markets are pricing in a rate hike as early as January 2010. This follows higher than expected inflation figures in the September quarter, improving consumer and business confidence and a rate hike in Australia earlier this month. The RBNZ has its next rate announcement on Thursday, October 29. Questions have come up regarding whether it will drop the 'low till late 2010' phrase altogether, make it slightly softer, or keep it in place. Economists are now expecting the RBNZ to drop the phrase. The RBNZ also needs to keep a close eye on the actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA raised its official rate earlier in October and is expected to hike it again in November. Finally, a look at New Zealand banks' mortgage rate curve shows it has been steepening in recent months as markets price in expectations of an earlier hike in the OCR. Here is a link to all of our interest rate charts, including interactive charts.