Net migration up in September

Rise in net permanent and long term migration due to recovery in arrivals, flat departures, Stats NZ says

21st Oct 10, 11:23am by Alex Tarrant

A recovery in the amount of permanent and long-term migrants arriving in New Zealand over the last three months should underpin housing demand and remove some of the downside risks to the housing market, ASB economist Christina Leung said.

Figures released by Statistics New Zealand show there was a seasonally adjusted net gain of 1,070 permanent and long term migrants in September, up from around 900 in each of August and July.

Monthly net migration had fallen from 1,850 in January to 230 in June.

"The rebound [in the last three months] was due to a recovery in arrivals, with the seasonally adjusted departures series remaining constant since May 2010," Stats NZ said.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand should find the recovery in net migration encouraging, given it had highlighted subdued net migration as one of the drivers behind its forecasts of a weak household sector in the NZ economy, ASB's Leung said.

Economists had been picking the RBNZ to leave the Official Cash Rate on hold at 3% until March 2011, due to weak household spending.

"We expect modest population growth will support a gradual recovery in housing construction and retail spending over the coming years," Leung said.

Unadjusted figures show there was a net gain of 2,514 PLT migrants in September, down from 3,107 in the same month a year ago.

In the year to September there was a net gain of 13,914 permanent and long term migrants, down from 17,043 in the year to September 2009.

Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

(Updates with chart, ASB comments.)

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11 Comments

by SK | 21st Oct 10, 11:42am 1287614533

Most of these new kiwis end up in Auckland - strengthening the positive housing fundamentals there in particular.

by Nicholas Arrand | 21st Oct 10, 11:46am 1287614765

I thought that 0.02% increase in our population was supposed to be builders and sparkys,heading to Christchurch, along with all the Auckland builders to do a re-build. Less demand for property in Auckland, and more demand for the cheaper houses available in Christchurch.

by SK | 21st Oct 10, 11:51am 1287615119

Less builders available in Auckland - means.....less building - means.....less supply - means.......

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Oct 10, 12:43pm 1287618185

In the year to September 2010 only 18100 Kiwis crossed the ditch , permanently . 5000 fewer than the year before . And well down on the 33900 who left in the year to Sept. 2008 ( the end of the Clark/Cullen era .......hmmmmmm ! ) .

Didn't some economics journalist , not a million miles from here , predict an opening of the floodgates as screeds of Kiwis fly away to pastures red-brown ? ....... Bernie ........

by me | 21st Oct 10, 12:26pm 1287617163

Wolly, this can't be right can it, why are people migrating in greater numbers to NZ than those going to Australia?

Thought might possibly be that housing is way cheaper in NZ than Australia, but then realised that Statistics NZ has just made these figures up as part of the big Noddyland government pro-ponzi campaign

by Wolly | 21st Oct 10, 12:39pm 1287617980

Seems the answer can be found in the shortage of skilled workers here in Noddy. There simply are not enough who are skilled enough to make the move. Meanwhile the effort to flood NZ with new immigrants remains on pace.

Why should the population stuffing game of old not keep going....it has always been the fallback position for Noddy's govts to save an election by injecting juice into the building sector.

There is also a question over the accuracy of the data.

by Kunst | 21st Oct 10, 1:20pm 1287620440

Among foreigners New Zealand is regarded as a safe and beautiful place still. That may be true, but at risk as soon as the “100% pure green-clean” reputation has gone. Job creation/ offer are other important issues.

For stressed people a relatively safe, beautiful, relaxed NZenvironment in comparison to most other countries has good potential to attract more overseas tourists also, as long as NZ is affordable. Overall bookings are fine, even better then last year’s summer season.

by Elley | 21st Oct 10, 9:10pm 1287648625

"as long as NZ is affordable" - is it though? In the 8 years I've been here the cost of basaics (food, electricity, petrol) must have doubled or tripled, houses have doubled and salaries, well, I won't even mention salaries. I have no idea how families on low/average incomes can make ends meet (I suppose that's why the govt can't stop giving top ups, or we might become known for the number of people living in poverty rather than for our "safe, beautiful, relaxed NZ environment").

by Kunst | 21st Oct 10, 10:09pm 1287652162

I absolutely agree with you. Daily life for us Kiwis becomes increasingly more expensive with severe consequences in our society. For many middle class foreigners/ tourists New Zealand is still considered as relatively cheap and social problems are often disregarded or even not recognised.

by muzza | 21st Oct 10, 7:16pm 1287641767

Agree with Me, the property prices are very high in the likes of Sydney and Melbourne, to sell here and then buy there would take a fair bit of extra dosh, as in some serious money needed. Would want to be a big earning job which anyway often means living and working where the average Australian doesn't want to go.

But do agree Wolly skilled workers are getting a bit restless in NZ, the latest ones are the secondary teachers because they see colleagues taking off to overseas international schools in all sorts of places, even the Middle East countries

by jh | 22nd Oct 10, 9:57am 1287694658

Propitee People argue for more migrants:

Analyst Owen McShane quoted a 1960s report, on the relationship between house construction and employment, that concluded that every 1000 houses would generate a total of 40,000 contracts and jobs over 15 to 20 years. (3) He showed that reducing the residential construction rate from 26,000 a year to a no more than 16,000 a year, and probably much fewer, is cutting 400,000 contracts and jobs over 15 to 20 years. Is this the legacy that the Key-led government wants to leave?

Where does immigration fit into the Key government’s grand scheme? Net migration went from minus 6760 in 2001 to plus 34,580 in 2002, and up to plus 42,090 in 2003, the beginning of the boom. Since more people require more dwellings, the residential property sector keeps a close eye on net migration. Whether the Clark-Cullen government deliberately allowed the influx to pump up the economy or whether it was an administrative cock-up has never been discussed. There are quality migrants around the world who would give anything to be able to live in New Zealand. By world standards, New Zealand is thinly populated. Would it not be worthwhile to investigate a managed increase in immigration?

http://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/2010/10/mike-butler-english-banks-and-property.html.