Older workers increase hold on job market

Baby boomers lift share of job market; One employee in 5 now over 55 compared to 1 in 10 in 1991

17th Jan 11, 3:01pm by David Chaston

We are apparently out of recession, and economic growth is forecast and expected. But how did the recession affect the different generations in terms of job growth? Were they equally affected?

The answer seems clear from the data - older workers kept a fairly tight hold on jobs. And that hold seems to have been at the expense of all other age groups.

Our analysis covers both the 2009 recession, and extends back to 1991. Apart from that 1991 recession, workers aged 55 and over have tightened their grip since.

In 1991, one employee in ten was over 55; today, that is one in five.

Every other age group has seen their share of the employment market decline.

And this review adjusts for the changing age patterns of the population. What we are seeing is a demographic shift to an older workforce, and that older group is grabbing a bigger share of the jobs on offer.

Apparently, experience counts for a lot in New Zealand.

Migration of the young is irrelevant to this analysis - even if migration was increasing among younger workers, the 15 to 24 year age group still saw their share of the employment market fall during the 2009 recession.

Among the other age groups, 25 to 34 year olds did better than 35 to 44 year olds, but still experienced a loss of employment share. In contrast 45 to 55 year olds held their own over the whole survey period.

This is what happened. Is it something public policy should address? Or is this just employers opting for maturity and experience?

Or is it more evidence that the baby boomer generation has successfully grabbed more-than-its-share of the employment market, a bit like it is accused of in the housing market?

Your view?

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61 Comments

by Wolly | 17th Jan 11, 3:23pm 1295231002

So in ten years time the exodus of oldies from the jobs is likely to leave some holes...maybe an increase in the pension payments above the current level but means tested, could be paid out to old coots who toss their jobs in...is this a better way to boost jobs for the young. Just a thought!

by Rob of the North | 18th Jan 11, 9:26am 1295295985

Don't be daft Wally/Wolly..there can never be such a thing as an exodus of oldies form the job market leaving holes?

life is a conveyor belt that we're all on and the supply of fresh new oldies is guaranteed forever as the middle aged get old etc...as you well know.. being a vine clipper yourself !

by Wolly | 18th Jan 11, 10:08am 1295298507

But Rob...it would be best to buy the oldies out of their jobs..call it an occupational pension...think of all jobs that would open up for the youth of today...surely you can't take that chance off them!

by Rob of the North | 18th Jan 11, 10:36am 1295300218

that makes sense but would only work by lowering the retirement age and making it compulsory?

ain't gonna happen ..

by PI_Rimmer | 17th Jan 11, 3:45pm 1295232322

This statistic could also be a function of 55+ people owing more than they did 20 years ago - more debt means they need to stay in work longer to pay of the mortgage, car, holiday, etc....

by pythagoras | 17th Jan 11, 3:57pm 1295233025

That's hardly a surprise with 60 being the new 40, people living longer, and all that. Folks are way more active at these ages than their parents were 2 decades ago.

Other factors could be that the nice new houses some of them built for retirement don't keep the weather out... and maybe some of the nest eggs have been gobbled up by the villainous finance companies that have gone bust. Many 55+ will have no choice but to work - the new normal (to borrow a well-used phrase).

by David B | 17th Jan 11, 4:58pm 1295236725

? You have a very strange way (and might I suggest value laden way) of interpreting your graphs!

You would need to do a lot more analysis of those numbers before you safely draw the conclusions that you do in my view.

by Ging | 17th Jan 11, 5:00pm 1295236808

Of course you do DB...expert witness aren't you.

by David B | 17th Jan 11, 5:03pm 1295237036

I'd stack my PhD up against yours any day, mate!

by Wolly | 17th Jan 11, 5:14pm 1295237652

Yeah...well my ones from Cal tech circa 72....they did a better job on the frames at Calcutta Technical.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 18th Jan 11, 1:44am 1295268276

David B : What was the thesis of your PhD , and where did you study ? ....... [ I'm not being a smart-aleck , the Gummy one genuinely has an enquiring mind ]

by David B | 18th Jan 11, 12:11pm 1295305906

Gummy, I really enjoy my privacy on this site and I don’t want to loose that.. Suffice it to say that I am a molecular biologist who works in the biotechnology sector on a human health related matter.

by Wolly | 18th Jan 11, 12:24pm 1295306656

Don't annoy him Gummy....he's trying to solve "pollyitus" to rid us of lying politicians.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 18th Jan 11, 12:28pm 1295306886

Give the man a knighthood and an unlimited budget for that ........

...... And if he succeeds , elevation to King-of-the-World , and a date with Maria Sharapova .

by David B | 18th Jan 11, 4:35pm 1295321702

Actually, Wolly, I’m working on a treatment for acute onset diarrhoea, expellianus. And silence in this matter is regarded as a sign of great success!

by Wolly | 18th Jan 11, 4:48pm 1295322486

Struth DB don't go wasting that energy...Gummy's looking for a way to power his Tuk Tuk. A bung in the right place with tube and a 10cc two stroke should do it. Ten miles on a can of baked beans!

by Gummy Bear Hero | 18th Jan 11, 12:25pm 1295306730

DB : Fair enough . I'd love to know more about the work that you do , but understand your wish for privacy ....... And this isn't the forum ...... We're here to talk houses 24/7 , not something interesting , such as bio-tech .

Cheers .

by Ging | 17th Jan 11, 7:26pm 1295245561

Thats why your the expert witness...no pleasing some people.

by muzza | 17th Jan 11, 8:41pm 1295250112

Ph D ? But the problem David is that in this day and age everyone thinks their opinion is worth listening to as much as any person who has trained and has experience in something.

So you have studied long and hard to attain your Ph D, but in many people's eyes they think they are as qualified as the next person because they have an opinion also. I was listening to a person yesterday at the beach who was sounding off about who should be in the All Blacks and how the current coaches were getting it all wrong. I said, why should anyone listen to someone who has at best coached kids at primary school age, without any proven success at a higher level, and that was his answer- that his opinion was as good as anyone elses. Think they must learn that at schools, all part of not upsetting their egos or something.

by David B | 18th Jan 11, 12:32pm 1295307173

lol, muzza, I agree with you! Plenty of 'talk-back' ranters and ravers on this site. It seems that here, graphs are a matter of simple common sense. Whereas I always thought they were a matter of mathematics. Silly me! I must remember that the next time I go outside and watch the sun go around the earth!

by Ging | 18th Jan 11, 1:21pm 1295310074

Pose the question, collect the data, analyse the data,interpret the results, make deductions and communicate results. There is obviously no requirement for liberal dash of commonsense once you’ve collected the data and drawn the nice graph people. Are you sure you’re not telling porkies…I’ll get the girls in the company library to pull up your thesis just to make sure.

by David B | 18th Jan 11, 4:20pm 1295320801

You and Steptoe seem to have a bit of a chip on your shoulder there about PhDs, ging. Why's that? Did you not cut the mustard at Uni?

by Ging | 18th Jan 11, 4:55pm 1295322932

I certainly drank a bit of piss there mate, had 8 years to perfect the art form. When I go home and park the 7 series in the driveway I'll reflect on...have I / did I cut the mustard. How you doing chap?

by David B | 18th Jan 11, 5:00pm 1295323213

lol. If you only knew. LMFAO!

A 7 series. Tacky.

by Wolly | 18th Jan 11, 5:07pm 1295323656

It's not an opening I want to look into DB....good luck to you.

by Ging | 18th Jan 11, 6:15pm 1295327741

I just got off the phone from my mate who runs a big medical research outfit in wellies...said he didn't know any DB's in the senior managent side of the industry, but he's got one working as a lab rat downs stairs. Hahahahahaha....loser. Explains the liberal use of acronyms...who uses those apart from my nieces and nephews. I'm off on holiday...good luck to you DB.

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Jan 11, 8:16pm 1295334964

Id have suggested that when a personality is so insecure that it has to define itself via status aquisitions, it has some growing-up to do. A lot.

Come back when you're done, huh?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 18th Jan 11, 9:22pm 1295338965

Know wotcha mean , PDK . Never thought I'd witness two guys slugging it out over whose microbial connections were more important . .......... The Gumpster doesn't feel like such a thicko , just now !

by Kakapo | 18th Jan 11, 8:53pm 1295337184

A PhD in microbiology (or whatever it was) has about as much relevance in here as a hairdressing diploma does in the field of microbiology.

by Rob of the North | 18th Jan 11, 9:27am 1295296045

Yep...without Dave B...we are nothing !

by JD | 18th Jan 11, 6:44am 1295286247

I totally agree with you, David. And what the hell, 55 year olds don't have to eat?!

by Ging | 17th Jan 11, 5:02pm 1295236966

Have a go at this...I'll just look for a graph etc to support the hypothesis!

The new normal has existed sometime for a percentage of the population….it looks something like this.

Pay off the student debt…

Save a deposit for a house…

Pay the mortgage…

Have children…

Pay for your children’s education…because you want to give them a head start in life and reduce their debt burden…

Pay for your healthcare…

Pay for your children’s healthcare…

Pay for your parent’s healthcare…and bits and bobs.

Pay tax and contribute to society…

Save for your retirement…assuming there’s something left over to do so.

Avoid dirty old investment companies…

Avoid dirty old leaking houses…

Work until your 75 if you are lucky…

Retire…or just quit because of exhaustion!

Sell the house…

Free up some cash…assuming you haven’t been able to save anything else…

Apply for super…declined, it doesn’t exist anymore.

Rent…

Die.

So many nice cheap houses coming up for sale…and SO many oldies to rent them back too.

by Wolly | 17th Jan 11, 5:11pm 1295237515

What would encourage old coots to retire at 65......increased pension payments!...free dental care!....GST free NZ holiday costs...lottery prizes with free tickets....ditto bungee jumping, sky diving and mountain climbing....

by iconoclast | 17th Jan 11, 5:28pm 1295238489

customised, souped-up V8-driven motorised wheelchair races at pukekohe every saturday and sunday with prize-money of $1 million. Elegibility for entrance - wheelchair must be capable of 150 kph plus.

by Wolly | 17th Jan 11, 6:28pm 1295242082

and free boat trips to Antarctica with ice zimmer racing!

by Rob of the North | 18th Jan 11, 9:28am 1295296131

joint-rolling competitions ?

by Ms de Meanour | 17th Jan 11, 5:32pm 1295238779

Wolly, the idea of getting old coots to retire so young people can have the jobs is often proposed but there's absolutely no evidence of it actually working in practice. You might want to google "lump of labour fallacy"

by Wolly | 17th Jan 11, 6:17pm 1295241459

Who has ever cared whether govt policy actually works!...just give us old coots more dosh and then lie about the jobs created...worked so far with everything else..and don't leave out the lottery tickets or we might forget to vote.

by Charlie | 18th Jan 11, 10:02am 1295298164

Lump of labour is not necessarily a fallacy. We need to give lowering the retirement age a try starting with a mandatory retirement age of 45 (maybe 50 for females) for public transport employees. Every bus and taxi driver I see looks like a heart attack waiting to happen. No need to lower the pension age for the forceably retired could just take the burger slinging jobs vacated by young people now able to get proper jobs.

by Charlie | 18th Jan 11, 10:02am 1295298175

by Ging | 17th Jan 11, 6:27pm 1295242064

You fellas aren't getting out of it that easy Wolly...work till you drop. It's in the interests of the country.

by Wolly | 17th Jan 11, 6:31pm 1295242288

Get stuffed Ging...I stopped work years ago...51 I think...brilliant decision...gotta go...Messi on chan 34.

by Ging | 17th Jan 11, 7:08pm 1295244534

Roger that...

by Vanderlei Luxemburgo | 18th Jan 11, 4:06pm 1295320006

overpopulation is the biggest enemy we have. remove all health support for over 65's and put them to "work" trapping rabbits and possums and building cycle paths. that'll save pension and health costs and remove the demographic and electoral inconvenience that is the baby boom generation

nailed it.

by Wolly | 18th Jan 11, 4:10pm 1295320259

Bollocks...the elderly deserve the respect and support of the X&Y generations and an increase in pension payments is a short cut to more votes...you watch closely as the socialists try to steal Winnies grey vote with another slice of pork to go with the WFF boost promised today...

by John B | 17th Jan 11, 7:49pm 1295246940

Pretty fluffy stuff.

What I'm missing is the "knowledge" bit from the "data-information-knoweldge" sequence.

All this article does is provide data, conveniently interpreted to underpin interest.co.nz's case against the new (now that Crafar's no longer newsworthy) whipping boy, the baby-boomers.

Are people working longer? If yes, why?

If they're not working longer: is there a structural change in the employment market, with a demand for workers with experience-based skill sets in specific (growth) sectors.

What impacts are changes in the youth wage having?

Do the apocryphyal tales of Generation Y being more confidence than confidence play a role? Do employers place value of the attributes of older workers rather than the supposed entitlement atitude and lack of basic skills of new work-force joiners?

Look for the variables and influences, do some decent journalism and write a proper article.

by Steptoe | 18th Jan 11, 9:33am 1295296386

Look for the variables and influences, do some decent journalism and write a proper article

2 things come to mind.....

Yes...see my post below.

The nonsensical irralivient wafflings above Johns comments that have nothing to do with the articale from those so called integent higher educaredc people with PhDs..

Also refered to in my post below

Good comment John...do you have a PhD and common sence or just the latter?

Thu David did leave the door open in his closing comments.

by John B | 18th Jan 11, 10:26am 1295299579

@ Steptoe

A complete lack of tertiary qualifications wasn't able to stop me from ending up in executive management with a major European aviation group. Must have been common sense, then ...

Someone in the hospitality industry in Nelson recently wrote the following:

20% unemployment in todays youth? That's what scrapping youth rates has done. Why would I employ a 17 year old who needs training when I can get someone experienced at the same price?

David must have full access to the workforce demographics over time and the educational structure of emigrating workers. He must be able to correlate the abolition of youth rates with a change in youth unemployment over time. Interest.co.nz must have access to the size of the workforce by age/sector/.... and they need to slice and dice the data until they come up with something that explains this phenomenon.

Could it be the same effect that the recession had in Germany, where employers were encouraged by the Federal government to retain skilled workers via subsidised top-ups to short-hour pay to ensure that they could ramp up quickly when the orders starting coming in again from the export markets?

Perhaps NZ employers realised themselves that if they let someone with skills go, they'd have difficulty in filling his/her shoes when demand rose again.

You won't necessarily find the answers by churning data, but it's always a good place to start.

The least it does is to give you worthwhile questions to ask.

by Justice | 17th Jan 11, 8:28pm 1295249337

OMG! Just when you think they can't really be that stupid.........

by Wolly | 18th Jan 11, 6:16am 1295284603

Hmmmmmmm.....what's the price on scrap steel?...10ooo to pick from...! where's me truck.

by Steptoe | 18th Jan 11, 9:17am 1295295420

Interesting numbers there

And not so strange after an article not long ago about bringing in Filipino workers 'down on the farm'

This is not a employment issue or retirement age issue at all....It is a social issue.

Older employees are far more reliable, stable, and prepared to get their hands dirty, figuratively speaking...do the jobs the younger ones think is 'beneath them.

This is why we have a 20% under 25yrs unemployment rate

Add to that many companies now require drug testing as part of the application....labouring jobs and such....now compare the youth stats with Wacke backy usuage....and add to that our youth drinking issues.

Cruise around a few Tyree shops, road repair and construction construction sites, may now have drug testing policies....notice the older guys?...where 10 yrs ago a lot of youths?

Talk to these employers...hell they are having trouble filling positions ....so whats left? oh yeah recruit at the local cosi /rsa club.

Retirement is doing what one wishes to do right?

So one has painted the house, done the gardens (all with paint made by over 55yr olds) get bored, so get the job in the spare parts store....do the job, social contact, and keep out of the way of the missus.

I have been saying for many yrs now, in NZ we have a huge social issues after yrs of social engineering and telling/convincing our children anything below a desk job is beneath them...so damn a good job Starlin and Goebbels would be proud of the effectiveness of the propaganda.

This has resulted in scraping the centuries old apprenticeship systems, now lack good qualified tradespeople, need to import them, and we dont have these people anymore to train our youth...even if they where prepared to get their hands dirty.

Then there is the issue of subsidies for income, that has created a whole generation..well several generations now who are dependent mentally and financially on now.

It is not a single issue, but series of education, social experiments carried out by several governments over the last 30yrs, from both sides of the house...all accumulating into the now, and with serious economic and social ramifications we are just starting to see come to fruition.

And one doesnt need a bloody PhD to see commonsense.

Thu one does need a PhD to have creditablity...even if one is still a bloody idiot...

There is no room for good old common sense anymore.....another reason why we are in a pickle now. too many idiots with Phds....cant even think thru and get a motorway right..just make congestion worse....idiots...no wounder empolyers are looking to the 55yrs + now...leve the idoits with PhDs in localand cental government empolyment.

by FCM | 18th Jan 11, 4:32pm 1295321520

When we employee we usually go for an older person, as we tend to have problems with reliabilty with the younger generation, not turning up as hung over, and they do not know the true meaning that you need to work for your money, they have there hand out for more after working for about five minutes, and tend to think that after a year or two they should be further up the ladder. But we always have a good mix which is important so there will always be room for 55yrs plus (you may not be able to teach an old dog new tricks, but they can teach you a few tricks- thats what experience does). :-)

by me | 18th Jan 11, 7:12pm 1295331128

David B and Muzza, I'm with you about the egotists who think their unqualified opinions are as worthy as the next. Even worse on talk back radio, it bings out a lots of self opinionated clowns, but that's the society we have these days.

by Malarkey | 18th Jan 11, 8:10pm 1295334631

Agreed!

It was like the morons at parties and BBQs everywhere during the bubble days, blaring on drunkenly at the top of their lungs about how "ya can't lose with property, maaate!", and expecting intelligent people not to laugh at them.

And like OllyN and his sockpuppet accounts here and elsewhere, desperately shilling for property, when once again intelligent people can smell his rancid fear a mile off.

Yep, there are a heap of clueless gits about.

by muzza | 18th Jan 11, 7:44pm 1295333040

Not just egotism, I'm afraid, some are driven because they have an axe to grind and/or espouse some consiracy theory

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Jan 11, 8:26pm 1295335593

who here predicted oil going back over 100 a barrel sooner rather than later?

Who pointed out that no energy = no work?

Meaning that less energy will mean less work which must mean less average income available, even as the desired goods become more scarce, worse in quality, and more in demand.

That's fact.

You're right, though. There's a lot here running with conspiracy - the conspiracy - the one that says economic growth can be had forever.

A lot of them were the trusting fools who 'invested' in the '80's sharemarket, and then did it again in the last decade with real-estate. If you want to know why they're working longer, it's because they can't afford to stop. smoking holes in both feet.

Given that they were the luckiest generation of all time - before and after - I have no sympathy. Their 'normal' was a very temporary aberration indeed.

by David B | 18th Jan 11, 11:12pm 1295345521

I'd be very interested, powerdownkiwi, to get your take on the deal that was signed between Russia and BP the other day regarding oil exploration/ extraction from the Arctic Ocean around Novaya Zemlya. If the news reports were accurate there’s supposed to be as much oil there as in Saudi Arabia. Is that correct do you know? Are those proven reserves or just what potentially could be there?

If they are correct, and it is another Saudi Arabia, at current world oil consumption rates, would that put back the date to peak oil by very many years?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 19th Jan 11, 1:09am 1295352542

Reported on Bloomberg TV , that the field holds 100 billion barrels of oil , give or take . ................ That is equivalent to the world's entire oil consumption for a little over 3 years ................ ummmmmm , better keep looking for more ....... much much more .

....... the top 17 oil producers in the world have combined reserves of 1200 billion barrels . Enough for 40 years , if oil consumption stays static .

[ the cross shareholding agreement between BP and Rosneft is a canny move by the new BP CEO , Dudley , as it replaces the reserves lost by BP in the Gulf of Mexico disaster , at half of the Gulf's replacement cost . Shrewd guy , now at the helm ]

by Kunst | 19th Jan 11, 6:33am 1295371982

Bloody hell - the planet is turning into “Swiss Cheese” and the weight of cowpat makes the earth rotating faster by a massive 5.5 seconds. – guys and girls we all end up in a pot of hot “Swiss Fondue” - swirling around - forked by North Korea or ........ and eaten by China.

In fact, the massive sinkhole currently running through the centre of town was created by the oil industry. As MSNBC reports, it was formed over three decades as oil field service companies pumped fresh water into a salt layer more than 400 feet below the surface and extracted several million barrels of brine to help with drilling.

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/stories/oil-industry-sinkhole-threatens-to-swallow-city

by Steptoe | 19th Jan 11, 9:47am 1295383658

Is not not strange that the whole recession was created by and endorsed by "qualified " people ..experts in finance and their thinking its OK to to lean to those who cant afford it.

Is it not strange the redesign of the Albany by pass and the motorway in Manukau made by qualified people has made this worse?

And is not strange that that criticisms of these designs where made by people who just used common sense.

Im not saying ALL people who have higher education lack in common sence..that is definitely not he case...it is a small but very influential minority that often do lack common sense, are blinded by the egotistical letters after their name...fail the most basic of research rules...always question, even ones self.

And to that is the mentality within much of the higher education community that it is impossible for anyone outside to have the commonsense, intelligence, for sight, or experience to add to the pool of knowledge constructively.

Even to the extent to have to refer to personal attacks, insults, generalizations and put downs, rather than debate the arguments put forward...basu=ically doing exactly what they accuse those outside their circle of doing.

Such actions have an old saying "Violence (including insults put downs) is when one runs out of intelligence."

I believe DC asked for intelligent debate on on the subject, some points of views where put forward and the best many can do is sit back and throw put downs, and are unable to discuss, debate or even dispute many of the views put forward.

But hey..all of the above is a waste of time right..not because it may or may not be correct, but because it is written by someone without a PhD right?

Or do I really not have higher edcucation?? It that really the drunken rantings at a BBQ??????

by muzza | 18th Jan 11, 10:25pm 1295342734

There already is no housing market in NZ, but a number of different markets operating, not only from different areas but within cities. Property close to city centres will be at a premium if oil continues to rise.