By Alex Tarrant
The number of New Zealand citizens leaving to live permanently in Australia jumped 40% in January from the same month a year ago, while the number of Kiwis coming back permanently remained flat, figures released by Statistics New Zealand show.
The numbers come against the backdrop of an economy that was possibly in recession for the entire second half of 2010 as it struggled to recover from the Canterbury earthquake on September 4, and as businesses and individuals held back spending to repay debt.
There were 4,875 departures of New Zealand citizens across the Tasman in January, up from 3,470 in January 2010. However this was still down from 5,070 and 5,017 in January 2009 and 2008, respectively.
Meanwhile 1,074 New Zealand citizens returned from Australia in January, compared to 1,078 the year before. The number of returning Kiwis was up 856 and 795 in January 2009 and 2008.
Adding in non-New Zealand citizens, there was net permanent migration to Australia from New Zealand of 3,518 in January, up from 2,128 a year ago. This was down from 4,071 in 2009 and 4,085 in 2008.
Total permanent migration figures from all countries show a net 777 people came to New Zealand in January, down from 2,539 the same month a year ago.
Trend in net migration falling
Meanwhile seasonally adjusted figures show net permanent migration to New Zealand was 450 in January to and from all countries, down from 730 in December.
Stats NZ figures show the trend in positive net migration to New Zealand fell over the year (although it did have a small uptick in July, August and September) from 1,500 net arrivals in January 2010 to 530 in January 2011.
Housing market pressures on and off
ASB economist Jane Turner said departures from New Zealand continued to grow strongly while arrivals remained subdued.
"Much of the increase in departures over the past year has reflected New Zealanders heading across the Tasman, attracted by Australia’s stronger job market. The recent earthquake is likely to add to this momentum, with fed up Cantabrians likely to find better job prospects abroad than locally," Turner said.
"With the housing stock badly damaged in Christchurch, and under-building likely to lead to shortages in places like Auckland, migration out of NZ will help alleviate some of the pressure on the housing market in the future," she said.
The Canterbury earthquake also threatened prospects for education exports, particularly English language schools.
"Over the past year, there has been an increase in long-term arrivals from Asia, and this has recently been matched by an increase in long-term departures which may be due to an increase in students from these countries. Over the next year, we expect the number of foreign students to decline as a result of the quake," Turner said.
"The slowing pace of migration will help alleviate future demand on housing. Under-building, combined with damaged and unusable housing from February’s quake, will place a strain on NZ’s housing supply over the next year. This will create inflation pressures down the track in the form of higher rents and construction costs," she said.
However, reduced net migration and slower population growth could help mitigate this.
"The relative strength of the Australian job market will continue to attract New Zealanders, particularly Cantabrians who may now be displaced as a result of February’s devastating quake," Turner said.
"Meanwhile, the quake is also likely to reduce the number of short-term visitor arrivals and foreign students. Figures prior to the quake had been showing some encouraging signs of improvement after a challenging period following the global financial crisis. Nonetheless, we expect the Rugby World Cup to provide a much needed boost to tourism later this year," she said.
"We continue to expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 50 basis points at tomorrow’s announcement."
Here are Stats NZ's comments on permanent and long-term migration:
Annual PLT migration
Net migration was 8,700 in the year ended January 2011 compared with 22,600 in the January 2010 year. The 82,400 PLT arrivals in the January 2011 year were down 4 percent from 2010. The 73,700 PLT departures were up 16 percent.
The net PLT migration gain of 8,700 in the January 2011 year was below the annual average gain for the December years 1991–2010 (12,000). Net PLT migration varied substantially within this 20-year period. The net gain peaked at 30,200 in the April 1996 year and again at 42,500 in the May 2003 year. Net outflows were experienced during most of 1998–2001, with the largest a net loss of 13,200 people in the February 2001 year.
Annual PLT migration by country
In the January 2011 year, the highest net inflow of migrants was from India (6,300). This surpassed the net inflow from the United Kingdom, which dropped from 8,900 in the January 2010 year to 5,000 in the January 2011 year. There was also a net inflow from China (3,600) in the January 2011 year.
The net PLT outflow to Australia was 22,400 in the January 2011 year, between the outflows in 2009 (35,400) and 2010 (16,000). The latest net outflow saw 38,200 departures to Australia offset by 15,900 arrivals from Australia. In both directions, most migrants were New Zealand citizens.
Annual PLT migration by citizenship
There was a net outflow of 22,600 New Zealand citizens in the January 2011 year – this was between the 2009 outflow of 36,700 and the 2010 outflow of 13,400. The net inflow of 31,300 non-New Zealand citizens is the lowest for a January year since 2001 (27,300).
PLT arrivals of New Zealand citizens numbered 24,700 in the January 2011 year, above the average of 23,500 recorded for the 1979–2010 December years, but below the peaks of the March 1991 year (29,600) and the October 2003 year (27,800). Arrivals of New Zealand citizens tend to show relatively little variation year-to-year, and the variation that does occur often follows trends in departures of New Zealand citizens a few years earlier.
PLT departures of New Zealand citizens have shown much more annual variation than arrivals of New Zealand citizens. The highest number of departures of New Zealand citizens was 64,300 in the October 1979 year, but by the January 1984 year, this had decreased to a low of 24,400.
PLT departures of New Zealand citizens numbered 47,400 in the year ended January 2011. This was between the outflow of 60,500 in the January 2009 year and the January 2010 year figure of 39,700.
PLT arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens were less than 30,000 a year between 1979 and 1992, then doubled to reach a peak of 58,800 in the July 1996 year. Another peak of 72,800 was reached in the February 2003 year. The changes in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens reflect changes in arrivals of temporary workers (including working holidaymakers) and overseas students staying for 12 months or more; as well as arrivals for residence. The 57,700 non-New Zealand citizen arrivals in the year ended January 2011 were down from 59,700 arrivals in the previous year.
PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens have generally been increasing since 1984, corresponding with the general increase in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens. In the January 2011 year, there were 26,400 PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens, up from 23,700 in the January 2010 year
Annual PLT migration by visa type
In the January 2011 year, 28,900 PLT arrivals were Australian or New Zealand citizens. Of the remaining 53,600 migrants, most arrived on:
- work visas (19,800)
- student visas (16,500)
- residence visas (12,700)
- visitor visas (4,000).
Compared with 2010, fewer migrants arrived on the following visa types: work (down 1,600), residence (down 1,000), and visitor (down 400) visas; more migrants arrived on student visas (up 700).
(Updates with ASB comment, Stats NZ comments on PLT migration)
Net long term migration
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56 Comments
I have been in Auz for just over a year now. I love NZ (miss hunting in the tops something chronic), but will probably never go back during my working life. The 2000's were a wasted decade in NZ the time when I was a university and started my working life - not a positive environment. It is simply to hard to make a decent living in NZ even with post-grad qualifications in a useful field and a good work ethic.
Im sure I will the nailed to the cross for this but the baby-boomers are holding my generation to ransom. But the penalty will be not seeing your children (you won't be able to visit them with the NZ$ buying 67c Auz, and all your money tied up in property).
On a positive note for NZ though I have sent over 20K back to NZ for various things this year, I wonder how much other money flows back to NZ like this ?
It makes me laugh though when I have two rentals in NZ both of which are paid for by tenants which are all on benefits. They have an easier ride than I had in NZ if they want a bond for the rental they ask WINZ, they get their rent subsidised and both of them are on the D.P.B and both of them have dropkick boyfriends that don't work. And we wonder why NZ is screwed.
Interesting. Hard working foreigners, eh ; who would come here to earn less than in Australia, ( or why wouldn't they go there?); less than the current people here earn - to displace them .That's lower wages across the board, that you are talking about. And that leads to... less money to be spent on....property. Ergo: Another reason for property and rent prices to fall as incomes decrease and immigratuion increases. It's about quality, not quantity; and the quality is both not coming, and leaving.
" who would come here to earn less than in Australia" - Snarlypuss, most European immigrants take a big salary cut by coming to NZ. Yet, there are still large numbers of European immigrants coming to NZ, eg from the UK. Life's not all about the number of 0s on a bank account.
I like seasons as opposed to being either hot or very hot all year long. I love swimming but sharks, crocs and deadly jellyfish are not my kind of thing. Hubby loves snowboarding (not much snow in Oz is there?) and windsurfing (preferably without a great white on his tail). The lifestyle we have here is definitely above what it was when we were in France or the UK. NZ does have some advantages over Australia and other countries. At the end of the day, no place is perfect, not even Australia.
As for your rather sarcastic comment about "hard working foreigners", all the ones I know including myself and my husband are on 6-figure salaries or very close (full-time equivalent for those working part-time) and work in what people like to call productive industries. None of the immigrants I know are on benefits. In fact, it was clearly stated in immigration papers that we were not entitled to any benefits within two years of immigrating. And by reading some comments on this site, most of us are more patriotic than many "true" Kiwis.
The snow fields in Oz, Elley, are bigger than the entire country of Switzerland ! Just not as many developed, comaperd to Europe.WIndsurfing? I was doing it there in 1980. Pretty sure it was amongst the leaders in that regard. And my comment re hard workers wasn't sarcastic. Most immigrants I know work far harder than the indiginous population! And I have to respectfully disagree - it's 'all' about the 0's in the bank. Money gives people choice. In your case, to live here. For many New Zealanders, that choice has been taken away from them by past economic and Government policy, giving them little viable option but to seek those $ elsewhere.
OK then (and I do know Oz is great for windsurf, if you don't mind the sharks!). Isn't Oz one of the most unaffordable countries in the world in terms of house prices, if not the most unaffordable? If it's all about money, do you think that Oz actually provides a better financial outcome for Kiwis after taking into account that and the higher COL? I'm not sure.
I mainly surfed, and windsurfed when there were no swells, for over 10 years; 2-3 days a week, from Maragret River in WA to north of Nossa QLD, and never once even saw a shark! I also worked tin Oz for many years and it's like here - relative affordability of houses. If you get a million a year and live in Sydney,and many, many do, it's fine. If not, you live in eg.Wollongong or somewhere civilised, but in keeping with the pay. So; Yes. The financial outcome for many Kiwis will be far better. My brother-in-law is back on hols. at the moment and he's in IT, on about A$250k pa. and rents for $75k of that. But as you, yourself, know- it's a trade off, one way or another.
OK, it's good to know that at least they are leaving for a brighter future rather than just the dream of a brighter future. We're in IT as well with a good number of years' experience and your BIL is definitely on a higher salary. That said, ours isn't bad either and I'm staying put in shaky Canty :)
I have to admit I have had to resist biting, but you will notice I haven't.
You have done well in the circumstances Walter.
At the end of the day it is an amateur and simpleton that plays the person rather the put forth well reasoned argument.
But hey every message board has to have a troll. Better to have one of low overall capacity, so lets humour him occassionally.
And hey all the posts it helps make the site interesting and keeps Bernard business going:)
Will be very interesting where Bollard takes the OCR tomorrow
On one hand he's got the banks and John Key in his ear, screaming for a cut due to the earthquake. But on the other hand he's got petrol at $2.15 and the NZ dollar trading at 73 cents (20 year low) against Oz.
My prediction is a cut of .25 cut - the banks run this country. My opinion is that there should be no change - NZ can't handle the added inflation from a lower dollar.
In term of kiwis leaving for Oz, March and April will both set records. Once the kiwi drops below 70 cents the wages in Oz will too good to turn down. Even an average $70k job in Oz will be touching the $100k in NZD . $100k and the Australian sunshine…..young kiwis will be jumping like rats fleeing the sinking ship that is post-quake NZ.
That's sad. I guess since NZ clearly fails to retain its own citizens it may in fact need those horrible foreign immigrants (like me) after all.
I still don't understand why Kiwis are so fascinated by Australia. Salaries may be higher but so is the COL, and houses in particular are hardly more affordable over there. Plus Kiwis are friendlier, we don't have nasty animals, the country is beautiful and the Kiwi accent is much cuter. What's not to like?!
Elley
Kiwis often go to Aus or the UK or Asia for the opposite reasons (I suspect) you came here
We go overseas for the greater opportunity, greater urban energy and culture, greater proximity to the rest of the world for travel etc
I'm second guessing you probably came here for the quieter lifestyle, natural environment etc. You left behind the wonderful culture and history of France, and proximity to the rest of the world - things NZ doesn't have
Quite right, and I understand Kiwis going for their OE to the UK or Asia. But Australia isn't really closer to the rest of the world than NZ, and like NZ, is a rather young country, ie not the culture and history that you would indeed find in France or other European countries.
Australia may be an obvious destination for Kiwis who want to try something different while remaining not too far from family but I remain skeptical as to it being a better place to live in than NZ.
Queensland is several hours closer to Asia, Perth is relatively close to Europe and Africa
Yeah Aus is a young coutnry, but it has the greater energy, vitality and scale in its cities. For many kiwis I suspect its all the lure of opportunity, bigger brighter better etc.
But like you I prefer NZ and thats why I'm still here
Elley - Totally agree with yoor sentiments regarding living in NZ. I emigrated to NZ in 1996, from the UK, and in this time spent 2 years living in Oz (QLD). I personally think that NZ is the better place and like yourself that includes living in ChCh. My brother, in the UK, phoned me the other day to ask if I would be moving back to the UK after the earthquakes in ChCh. I told him even with the earthquakes, ChCh was a better place to live than the UK. He thinks I'm mad. Different strokes for different folks.
On one hand considering the various problems in Europe/ UK and USA I think the desire of people/ families to migrate to AU/ NZ will increase sharply.
On the other hand our economy struggling on almost all fronts. The government will loosen it’s immigration policy in order to achieve better, most needed results.
Ok, I've deleted two comments in this thread. No more calling each other nasty and rude names. We mean it. There are also a couple of comments above that are on the boarderline. Bernard has his finger poised over the 'ban' button.
If you want to make comments like that then you are free to go to various other blog sites who don't care how their communities treat each other.
We don't mind if you don't have the same views. In fact, that's a good thing. If you disagree with each other then play the ball, not the man.
Was talking to a high level exec the other day who said he loves the site and reads everything on it except the comments. And it's not just him saying this to us.
This is sad because thee vast majority of comments are fantastic, informative and add to the debate, it's just a pity some of you resort to such childish behaviour every once in a while.
Cut it out.
You're so right , Dukey , old chum ....... Hickey / Tarrant / Chaston / Vaughan ..... what makes these guys think that they're so smart ?...
..... Run the foremost finance & investment website in NZ , ... easy peasy , we could do that ............ suck lattes and do sugar-soft-double-shot interviews with the creme de 'la creme of Kiwi business and politics .......... huh , no biggie ... we're up to that , ... aye Dukey ............
...... .... chase the delectacious canukable Amanda around the office ..... .... oooooooooooooooh , now that hurts !.. .... .. You lucky lucky bastards .
Hardly surprising that more Kiwis flew over to Oz , in January ........ Alot must've received Ken Ring's Weather & Earthquake almanac as Christmas presents , and done a bunk before his predicted big shake , on Feb 22 . ....... and Feb 2 / 5 /7 / 10 / 12 / 16 / , Jan 2 / 4 / 8 /12 / 17 / 21 / 29 / 31 ......
........ That guy really nails it down .......... Wonder wot the moon says about Goofy's chances of kicking JK's butt in the November election ?
Alex,
If comments are not always up to admins liking then why not have both a thumbs up and a thumbs down button?
Allow comments to be sorted into, Newest, Oldest, Best & Worst Rated such as at dailymail.co.uk site (for example).
Isn't just having a thumbs up button kind of like the education system where we can't tell anyone they're failing and to think happy thoughts. (OK maybe a poor analogy)
The numbers over the next 6mths are going to be very grim.
I still believe that NZ, as a land mass, is a good long term bet, when you consider the issues around resource depletion, global warming, security issues etc.
Hence, why I still own a little life style block in NZ. However, if you are skilled, educated and work hard, you are crazy to work in NZ and have your salaries confiscated by people who take no responsibility for their lives and then be abused as a "rich prick".
The question is who will "own" that land mass. Unless as a nation NZ starts making some hard decisions and develops a long term vision everyone work towards, it is very unlikely it will be owned by "NZ'ers" within the 10 years.
I was up in Singapore the other day and suggested to some officials that they should look to buy the Sth Island off NZ. A secure source of food, water and land for their population. It will save NZ attempting to rebuild Christchurch on money borrowed from foreigners. They could buy it with a fraction of what they have in their Sovereign Wealth Fund.
In terms of "own" if you accept that there are going to be real serious issues around "resource depletion, global warming, security issues etc." then you should consider that a foreigner owns NZ land because the NZ voter allows it and the foreigner has reslly no right of abode. if its get really hairy then the voter just votes in a Govn that will confiscate foreign owned land, this also applies to food security....
"r*ch pr*ck" I wouldnt think (or hope not anyway) that someone who has a couple of million is what I wouldnt class as rich (just comfortable) and in any event not deserve such abuse...such a statement for me is reserved for the few banksters who frankly seem to do more damage to the world's economy than good, cost jobs and with speculation on food leave poor ppl who cant afford the price of the grain..
regards
"have your salaries confiscated by people who take no responsibility for their lives and then be abused as a "rich prick". "
That is an extreme remark. Income tax goes to all sorts of public expenditure - schools, hospitals, law and order, welfare.
'rich prick' is a termed used to describe individuals like Mark Hotchins, Eric Watson. Unpleasant individuals who care only about accumulating personal wealth and power at the expense of our society.
Singapore is a technocratic dictatorship. 'Pro business' types seem to love those kind of places.
Aussie is higher paid etc, but you pay mere to live there in general. There are exceptions like my brother who works as a sparky in the mines, works 12/7 every week, no rest & no play. He lives on $20-30/wk as all other expenses are paid by the mining co. He gets AUD3000/wk in the hand. Too good to refuse at this time. If the industry collapses he comes back to NZ and lives with his girlfriend and gets revenue from his 2 rentals.
Over the decades I have lived in a number of cities/places in Australia and that includes Sydney with its Funnel Web Spiders but the actual dangers from all Oz fauna are infinitisimal compared with other dangers in our societies that we take for granted. The most obvious one is motor vehicles.
As a keen bushwalker I am aware of the millions of man hours spent in the Australian bush by for example BBW, the Brisbane Bushwalkers Club. No one in the club has ever been envenomated, yet snakes are frequently seen on bushwalks- usually vacating walker's vicinities as rapidly as possible. However, BBW have lost at least one member to a car accident plus and they have had a few accidents and injuries over the decades.
With wasps a problem here in NZ our trampers are far more likely to be stung as compared to all Brisbane possible bites/stings whatever. Its a little different up in the tropics where paper wasps are more frequent.
The most scary thing for me in Australia was the danger to my home from termites which sadly will quite possibly find their way into NZ unless we are soooooo careful quarantine wise. And I worked with herpetologists and spent time taking wildlife photographs in tropical estuarine swamps.
I didn't think I would consider leaving a year ago, but I am now, as I don't like the lack of direction the country has. Not sure if Oz is my first choice, I am also considering europe and the us. Maybe I will return when close to retirement, but I don't really see NZ as a place for younger people these days, due to the increasing cost of living, low wages, and relatively high unemployment, inflated houses prices and that things don't appear to be getting better. Especially with the huge costs of the chch rebuild. I think chch needs to be rethought, and possibily made a lot smaller with denser housing. We need someone to make some really hard decisions on NZs future.
@ Steven.
I agree, that governments can confiscate foriegn owned land. However, it would be difficult for a small country like NZ with limited military capacity to confiacte foriegn owned land. For example, Australia owns significant land and assets in NZ. A paper on their defence scenarios has one scenario for NZ going "Cuba". The response would be to send Australian defence forces to NZ to secure their rights over the land. Would the US step in to defend NZ, given that thay also own significant land here?
The reality is that a small country with high levels of foriegn debt and limited military capacities is very reliant on the goodwill of "foreigners".
@ South Paw
When we were in Japan we paid high taxes, I had no issue with that because everyone worked to their maximum capacity and seldom did anyone abuse the welfare system or avoid paying their share of taxes. I saw the benefit of our taxes in an excellent public heath and education system and in brilliant public infrastructure. i.e. everyone paid by the rules and everyone benefited. I have an issue paying taxes in NZ, because people do abuse the system, including the rich who use tax structures to those people who have children without any consideration as to who will support them.
Re. Singapore, I have no issue living in a dictatorship, where that equates to having no crime or drugs or social problems. Having very low taxes is a nice bonus, but certainly not the key driver. Believe me, it is a much better place to bring up children in a save and secure environment. Singapore is also very muli-cultural and we are not judged or treated differently on your ethnicity.
GG - Regarding the NZ land issue I am in total agreement. I have spoken to quite a few people who are more than happy to sell productive NZ land to the Chinese, naively thinking that if we need this land in the future for ourselves then we could just repossess it. They somehow believe the Chinese would just allow this to happen without any consequences.
@GG
Did my OE for a couple of years in Singapore. Agree with you that it's safer and definitely more accepting of foreigners. Singaporeans are proud of what they call meritocracy. People get rewarded based on merit and not where you come from. And to think that I was apprehensive that my lack of Singapore experience make it difficult to get a job.
GG - you are making the assumption that people in the South Island would agree to sell to Singapore. Europeans (from Europe) and USA citizens have quite substantial land holdings in the Sth Island. Check out how much of the South Island is already in 'foreign hands'.
Casual Observer
Yes, it would be interesting to see how much Sth Islan land or alrday owned by "foriegn" interests. I suspect quite a lot.
I think if you structured it right it would be quite appealing to Sth Islanders:
a, Singapore will rebuild Christchurch with the degree of efficiency and great planning as they have done in Singapore.
b. Singapore would invest heavily in infrastructure, especially ports, electric rail, public transport and renewable energy sources.
c. A crack down on crime and particularly drug related issues;
d. Probably invest heavily in the already excellent Sth Island universitities and attract Asian students (an education hub)
e. Investment in improving the social status of the the lower social economic classes (as they did with the Malay peoples in Singapore)
f. Significantly lower taxes
g, Creation of industry hubs. Likely to focus on agriculture, sustainable technology research, linking in the universities and attracting top scientists, engineers and academics globally.
A great business hub, in one of the most beautilful areas in the world, which quality infrastructure and a safe, crime free, efficient environment, with excellent education for your children with low taxes to boot.
"I have no issue living in a dictatorship, where that equates to having no crime or drugs or social problems."
Even the most terrible dictatorships (state terrorism) in history have discovered that no matter how terrible they become, some people don't appear to agree with the state and continue to engage in criminal activity. Can you really imagine a state you would have no issue with, where there was no crime or drugs or social problems? Still want to live there, in such a totalitarian utopia?
What you have to give up for the eradication of crime isn't worth giving up, in any circumstance.
And as for Singapore...where do you draw the line between crime and corruption? I can also assure you that social problems crop up every now and again in Singapore. Not necessarily reported on state television.
Hello
Look people who want to work will leave an earn big dollars in Aust.I tell my 3 boys everyday to leave an start a new life,earning big money.
Work hard an make lots of money,an have a great future.
NZ has nothing to keep my young family from leaving.
I have rentals properties an home here
I am worried about the difference in the dollar 67c an its getting worse
By the day we are losing wealth.
The country has a huge problem with unskilled people who will never get work.
We are not doing anything about this problem,this group is growing.
You can not grow a country with unskilled people who do not want to get out of bed.
NZ would be better to have everybody doing something.
Busy people are more productive,less problems in every area.
Start thinking off ways that this country can earn more income
working people need good wages to stay in this country.
NZ needs to focus on making this country the best place to live in.
I have decided to move to Australia to live becuase I was made redundant two days before christmas. Five weeks after being made redundant I was offered a job in Perth. In NZ dollars I have almost doubled my salary.
I like the lifestyle in NZ, it has friendly people, spectacular scenary, a great lifestyle, it is a good place to raise children and a good place to take part in sport and outdoors activities.
Unfortunately wages/salaries are not keeping up with the cost of living. NZ has turned into a low wage country with a high cost of living. It does not have the jobs and money required to retain their brightest and best. That old saying goes, if you do not look after your people, someone else will!!! You can only enjoy the lifestyle and scenary for so long before struggling financially will get to you.
Yes Australia can be a bit more expensive to live, but that depends on where you go to live and work. But the upside to that is you have an opportunity to earn more money, and do more interesting jobs and the lifestyle in Australia is just as good.
NZ does not have the population base, money and critical mass to be an economic force to be reckoned with.
Funnily, I got turned down for a job in Auckland when I was cheeking out a job opportunity in Perth, WA. When I was called to let it be known that my application for a job in Auckland was unsuccessful, I was thinking New Zealand's loss is Australia's gain. I have taken up the job offer in Australia instead.
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