By Alex Tarrant
The number of New Zealand citizens leaving to live permanently in Australia jumped 40% in January from the same month a year ago, while the number of Kiwis coming back permanently remained flat, figures released by Statistics New Zealand show.
The numbers come against the backdrop of an economy that was possibly in recession for the entire second half of 2010 as it struggled to recover from the Canterbury earthquake on September 4, and as businesses and individuals held back spending to repay debt.
There were 4,875 departures of New Zealand citizens across the Tasman in January, up from 3,470 in January 2010. However this was still down from 5,070 and 5,017 in January 2009 and 2008, respectively.
Meanwhile 1,074 New Zealand citizens returned from Australia in January, compared to 1,078 the year before. The number of returning Kiwis was up 856 and 795 in January 2009 and 2008.
Adding in non-New Zealand citizens, there was net permanent migration to Australia from New Zealand of 3,518 in January, up from 2,128 a year ago. This was down from 4,071 in 2009 and 4,085 in 2008.
Total permanent migration figures from all countries show a net 777 people came to New Zealand in January, down from 2,539 the same month a year ago.
Trend in net migration falling
Meanwhile seasonally adjusted figures show net permanent migration to New Zealand was 450 in January to and from all countries, down from 730 in December.
Stats NZ figures show the trend in positive net migration to New Zealand fell over the year (although it did have a small uptick in July, August and September) from 1,500 net arrivals in January 2010 to 530 in January 2011.
Housing market pressures on and off
ASB economist Jane Turner said departures from New Zealand continued to grow strongly while arrivals remained subdued.
"Much of the increase in departures over the past year has reflected New Zealanders heading across the Tasman, attracted by Australia’s stronger job market. The recent earthquake is likely to add to this momentum, with fed up Cantabrians likely to find better job prospects abroad than locally," Turner said.
"With the housing stock badly damaged in Christchurch, and under-building likely to lead to shortages in places like Auckland, migration out of NZ will help alleviate some of the pressure on the housing market in the future," she said.
The Canterbury earthquake also threatened prospects for education exports, particularly English language schools.
"Over the past year, there has been an increase in long-term arrivals from Asia, and this has recently been matched by an increase in long-term departures which may be due to an increase in students from these countries. Over the next year, we expect the number of foreign students to decline as a result of the quake," Turner said.
"The slowing pace of migration will help alleviate future demand on housing. Under-building, combined with damaged and unusable housing from February’s quake, will place a strain on NZ’s housing supply over the next year. This will create inflation pressures down the track in the form of higher rents and construction costs," she said.
However, reduced net migration and slower population growth could help mitigate this.
"The relative strength of the Australian job market will continue to attract New Zealanders, particularly Cantabrians who may now be displaced as a result of February’s devastating quake," Turner said.
"Meanwhile, the quake is also likely to reduce the number of short-term visitor arrivals and foreign students. Figures prior to the quake had been showing some encouraging signs of improvement after a challenging period following the global financial crisis. Nonetheless, we expect the Rugby World Cup to provide a much needed boost to tourism later this year," she said.
"We continue to expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 50 basis points at tomorrow’s announcement."
Here are Stats NZ's comments on permanent and long-term migration:
Annual PLT migration
Net migration was 8,700 in the year ended January 2011 compared with 22,600 in the January 2010 year. The 82,400 PLT arrivals in the January 2011 year were down 4 percent from 2010. The 73,700 PLT departures were up 16 percent.
The net PLT migration gain of 8,700 in the January 2011 year was below the annual average gain for the December years 1991–2010 (12,000). Net PLT migration varied substantially within this 20-year period. The net gain peaked at 30,200 in the April 1996 year and again at 42,500 in the May 2003 year. Net outflows were experienced during most of 1998–2001, with the largest a net loss of 13,200 people in the February 2001 year.
Annual PLT migration by country
In the January 2011 year, the highest net inflow of migrants was from India (6,300). This surpassed the net inflow from the United Kingdom, which dropped from 8,900 in the January 2010 year to 5,000 in the January 2011 year. There was also a net inflow from China (3,600) in the January 2011 year.
The net PLT outflow to Australia was 22,400 in the January 2011 year, between the outflows in 2009 (35,400) and 2010 (16,000). The latest net outflow saw 38,200 departures to Australia offset by 15,900 arrivals from Australia. In both directions, most migrants were New Zealand citizens.
Annual PLT migration by citizenship
There was a net outflow of 22,600 New Zealand citizens in the January 2011 year – this was between the 2009 outflow of 36,700 and the 2010 outflow of 13,400. The net inflow of 31,300 non-New Zealand citizens is the lowest for a January year since 2001 (27,300).
PLT arrivals of New Zealand citizens numbered 24,700 in the January 2011 year, above the average of 23,500 recorded for the 1979–2010 December years, but below the peaks of the March 1991 year (29,600) and the October 2003 year (27,800). Arrivals of New Zealand citizens tend to show relatively little variation year-to-year, and the variation that does occur often follows trends in departures of New Zealand citizens a few years earlier.
PLT departures of New Zealand citizens have shown much more annual variation than arrivals of New Zealand citizens. The highest number of departures of New Zealand citizens was 64,300 in the October 1979 year, but by the January 1984 year, this had decreased to a low of 24,400.
PLT departures of New Zealand citizens numbered 47,400 in the year ended January 2011. This was between the outflow of 60,500 in the January 2009 year and the January 2010 year figure of 39,700.
PLT arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens were less than 30,000 a year between 1979 and 1992, then doubled to reach a peak of 58,800 in the July 1996 year. Another peak of 72,800 was reached in the February 2003 year. The changes in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens reflect changes in arrivals of temporary workers (including working holidaymakers) and overseas students staying for 12 months or more; as well as arrivals for residence. The 57,700 non-New Zealand citizen arrivals in the year ended January 2011 were down from 59,700 arrivals in the previous year.
PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens have generally been increasing since 1984, corresponding with the general increase in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens. In the January 2011 year, there were 26,400 PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens, up from 23,700 in the January 2010 year
Annual PLT migration by visa type
In the January 2011 year, 28,900 PLT arrivals were Australian or New Zealand citizens. Of the remaining 53,600 migrants, most arrived on:
- work visas (19,800)
- student visas (16,500)
- residence visas (12,700)
- visitor visas (4,000).
Compared with 2010, fewer migrants arrived on the following visa types: work (down 1,600), residence (down 1,000), and visitor (down 400) visas; more migrants arrived on student visas (up 700).
(Updates with ASB comment, Stats NZ comments on PLT migration)
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