Now mathematically possible for a Labour-led govt if NZ First hits 5% of the vote, iPredict says

Now mathematically possible for a Labour-led govt if NZ First hits 5% of the vote, iPredict says

A Labour-led government after the November 26 election is now mathematically possible if potential coalition partner New Zealand First hits 5% of the vote, according to New Zealand on-line predictions market iPredict.

In its weekly election snapshot, iPredict said Labour had gained more of the forecast vote over recent weeks at the expense of National and Labour's support parties. This follows this week's release of the latest Roy Morgan poll, showing support for Labour jumped from 28% to 36%, while National's poll rating fell from 53% to 49%. See the Roy Morgan poll here.

The general downward trend in National's forecast party vote over the last six weeks has continued this week, while Labour's forecast party vote has increased sharply, iPredict said. Forecast party vote shares are now:

National 44.0% (down from 45.5% last week), Labour 33.6% (up from 30.2% last week), the Greens 7.0% (steady), New Zealand First 4.9% (steady); Act 4.3% (down from 4.7% last week), the Maori Party 1.9% (down from 2.1% last week), UnitedFuture 1.6% (down from 2.1% last week), the Mana Party 1.5% (down from 1.6% last week), the proposed Reform New Zealand Party 0.7% (steady), and the New Citizen Party 0.6% (down from 0.7% last week).

"Based on this data, and the electorate results [below], Parliament would be as follows: National 56 MPs, Labour 43 MPs, the Greens 9 MPs, Act 6 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, and the UnitedFuture and Mana parties 2 MPs each.  

"There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply, so that John Key's National Party would have the numbers with the support of the Act Party, or both the Maori and UnitedFuture parties.  A two-party National/Green government would also be possible," iPredict said.

"Given New Zealand First's close proximity to MMP's 5% threshold, iPredict has again analysed what would happen should that party win 5% of the vote.  Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows: National 53 MPs, Labour 41 MPs, the Greens 9 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, Act 5 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, and the UnitedFuture and Mana parties 2 MPs each.  There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply," it said.

"Under this scenario, government formation would be more complicated.  John Key's National Party would need all of the Act, UnitedFuture and Maori parties to govern meaning that the Maori Party would genuinely hold the balance of power.  This would give it the option of supporting a Labour/Green/New Zealand First/Maori Party/Mana Party government, which would have 61 seats on confidence and supply.  A two-party National/Green government would also be possible.These figures reflect the predictions made by those using iPredict's prediction market, rather than any survey of voters."

Here is the full weekly snapshot.

Key Points:
*       Labour's forecast vote grows at expense of National and its support parties
*       Goff-led Government feasible if NZ First reaches 5%
*       John Key still strongly expected to govern
*       Economic forecasts improving slowly
*       National getting stronger in New Plymouth as is Labour in Ikaroa-Rawhiti

 Commentary:

John Key continues to be strongly expected to be re-elected on 26 November despite Labour increasing its forecast vote to 33.6% at the expense of National and its support parties, this week's update from New Zealand's prediction market, iPredict, indicates.  However, for the first time in many weeks, a Phil Goff-led Government is mathematically possible should New Zealand First cross MMP's 5% threshold.  Growth forecasts are up marginally and unemployment and inflation forecasts are down slightly.

Economic Context

The market indicates a low probability of a recession.  The probability the economy will be in a recession in the June quarter is just 10% (steady compared with last week), the September quarter 13% (steady) and the December quarter 13% (up from 12% last week).

Expectations for growth have improved marginally in the short-term.  Growth for each of the next five quarters to be reported is forecast to be 0.1% for the March 2011 quarter (steady compared with last week and up from 0.0% two weeks ago), 0.5% for the June 2011 quarter (up from 0.4% for the last two weeks), 0.7% for the September 2011 quarter (steady for the last two weeks), 0.8% for the December 2011 quarter (up from 0.7% for the last two weeks) and 0.6% for the March 2012 quarter (steady for the last two weeks).

Unemployment forecasts have also improved marginally compared with last week.  Unemployment is expected to be 6.8% in the June 2011 quarter (steady), 6.4% in the September 2011 quarter (steady), 6.2% in the December 2011 quarter (down from 6.3% last week), and 6.4% in the March 2012 quarter (down from 6.5% last week).

Inflation expectations have been revised down slightly from last week.  Annual inflation is expected to be 5.2% for the June 2011 quarter (steady), 4.7% for the September 2011 quarter (down from 4.8% last week), 2.7% for the December 2011 quarter (down from 3.0% last week), and 2.6% for the March 2012 quarter (down from 2.8% last week).

The market continues to indicate strongly that petrol prices will be capped at a maximum price of $2.30 this year.  The probability that unleaded petrol will exceed $2.30 per litre in 2011 is 31% (down from 34% last week), the probability it will exceed $2.40 per litre is 15% (up from 13% last week), and the probability it will go above $2.50 per litre is 11% (down from 13% last week).

Cumulative expectations for changes to the OCR suggest that Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard will leave the OCR at 2.50% through to December, when he will increase it to 2.75%, and then again to 3.00% in January 2012.

Expected yields for 90-day bank bills are largely unchanged from last week.  The expected 90-day rate on 1 September 2011 is 2.70% (down from 2.75% last week) and on 1 December 2011 is 2.94% (up from 2.93% last week).

Average floating-rate mortgages are still expected to stay low, with the probability they will reach 6.50% in 2011, from the 5.90% reported by the Reserve Bank for March 2011, back down to 18%, from 24% last week and 17% two weeks ago.

The market is predicting a Current Account surplus of 1.09% of GDP to be reported for the year ending March 2011, a Current Account surplus of 1.08% of GDP to be reported for the year ending June 2011, a Current Account deficit of 1.02% of GDP to be reported for the year ending September 2011, and a Current Account deficit of 1.50% of GDP to be reported for the year ending December 2011.

There is just a 3% probability that Fitch Ratings will announce a downgrade of New Zealand's long term currency rating before 1 July (steady compared with last week and down from 5% two weeks ago).

Election Date, Parties & Personnel

The probability the election will be held on Saturday 26 November is 95%, up from 94% in last week's update.  All current leaders of parliamentary parties have at least a 90% probability of remaining in their positions until then.  The most vulnerable is Maori Party Co-Leader Tariana Turia, but with just a 9% probability of being replaced prior to the election.

Key Electorate Contests

Epsom continues to become safer for Act, with an 87% probability (up from 85% last week) that it will be won by a candidate other than a National candidate or incumbent Act MP Rodney Hide.

In Ohariu, the incumbent, UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne, also continues to be favoured, with a 58% probability of being re-elected, up from 52% last week.  Second favoured continues to be Labour's Charles Chauvel, with a 22% probability of winning the seat, down from 28% last week.

The probability Winston Peters will be returned to Parliament is down to 26%, from 30% last week, with his party remaining narrowly below MMP's 5% threshold.  The probability he will stand in Epsom is down to 10%, from 15% last week, while there remains a 13% probability he will stand in the Prime Minister's Helensville electorate.

In the Maori seats, there have been no changes in forecast winners.  There is an 80% probability Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira will win the Te Tai Tokerau by-election (down from 83% last week) and a 65% probability he will prevail in the General Election (down from 66% last week).

Maori Party Co-Leader Pita Sharples is expected to retain Tamaki-Makaurau (72% probability, up from 70% last week), Mrs Turia is expected to retain Te Tai Hauauru (78% probability, steady), and Maori Party MP Te Ururoa Flavell is expected to retain Waiariki (77% probability, steady).

For the Labour Party, Nanaia Mahuta is expected to retain Hauraki-Waikato (76% probability, down from 77% last week) and Parekura Horomia or another Labour candidate is expected to retain Ikaroa-Rawhiti (53% probability, up from 48% last week).

Te Tai Tonga continues to be forecast to change hands, with a 63% probability it will be won by Labour's Rino Tirikatene, down from 65% probability last week.

In marginal electorates other than those mentioned above, there is a 74% probability that National's Nikki Kaye will retain Auckland Central, up from 71% last week.  The probability National's Jonathan Young will retain New Plymouth is up to 57%, from 52% probability last week and 50% the week before.  National's Paula Bennett remains favoured to retain Waitakere (57% probability, down from 60% last week) and Labour's Damien O'Connor is expected to win back West Coast-Tasman for Labour (53% probability, down from 55% last week).

With no changes to forecast winners in electorate seats over the last week, National continues to be expected to win 40 electorate seats, Labour 24, the Maori Party 3, and Act, UnitedFuture and the Mana Party 1 each.

Party Vote, Election Result and Alternative Scenarios

The general downward trend in National's forecast party vote over the last six weeks has continued this week, while Labour's forecast party vote has increased sharply.  Forecast party vote shares are now: National 44.0% (down from 45.5% last week), Labour 33.6% (up from 30.2% last week), the Greens 7.0% (steady), New Zealand First 4.9% (steady); Act 4.3% (down from 4.7% last week), the Maori Party 1.9% (down from 2.1% last week), UnitedFuture 1.6% (down from 2.1% last week), the Mana Party 1.5% (down from 1.6% last week), the proposed Reform New Zealand Party 0.7% (steady), and the New Citizen Party 0.6% (down from 0.7% last week).

Based on this data, and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 56 MPs, Labour 43 MPs, the Greens 9 MPs, Act 6 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, and the UnitedFuture and Mana parties 2 MPs each.  There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply, so that John Key's National Party would have the numbers with the support of the Act Party, or both the Maori and UnitedFuture parties.  A two-party National/Green government would also be possible.

Given New Zealand First's close proximity to MMP's 5% threshold, iPredict has again analysed what would happen should that party win 5% of the vote.  Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows: National 53 MPs, Labour 41 MPs, the Greens 9 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, Act 5 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, and the UnitedFuture and Mana parties 2 MPs each.  There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

Under this scenario, government formation would be more complicated.  John Key's National Party would need all of the Act, UnitedFuture and Maori parties to govern meaning that the Maori Party would genuinely hold the balance of power.  This would give it the option of supporting a Labour/Green/New Zealand First/Maori Party/Mana Party government, which would have 61 seats on confidence and supply.  A two-party National/Green government would also be possible.

Overall, however, the market continues to indicate an 87% probability there will be a National Prime Minister after the election (steady compared with last week).

MMP Referendum and Miscellaneous

The probability New Zealanders will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on Election Day is steady at 78%.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington.  Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz  The company is providing full election coverage this year, with contract bundles for the party vote and for every electorate race in the country now available for trading, along with other contract bundles on a wide range of economic, political and social issues.  The weekly political snapshot is taken at a random time each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists.  This week's was taken at 7.25 am today.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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23 Comments

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Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

Hopefully that poll shot across the bows might make National reconsider the idiocy of their proposed SOE privatisation programme. Its a big vote loser National, wake the feck up!

So; That’s Phil Goff - Prime Minister; Winston Peters- Treasurer; Russell Norman- Minster for the Environment; Pita Sharples- Minister for Maori Affairs and Hone Harawira- Minister for Treaty Negotiations !  Oh dear….

 

Good fun for a political journalist tho... :)

If the lineup was like that after the election, I would predict a total collapse within 1 year. They would end up killing one another. God save NZ from a lineup like that. Thats why I dislike MMP. There has to be something better.

Scary!

The problem is, that National offers very little for those such as myself who are right in the middle, get no benefits from present policy (ie dont get WFF or free student loans), or who want to see some growth-oriented policy.

And of course the Nats are pandering to the rich & property spruikers by refusing to balance the taxation system.  So I feel like punishing National & trying to modify their behaviour.  But then again we need Labour like a hole in the head, all they are offering are bizarre modifications to GST etc. 

It all leaves grumpy people like me wondering about where to go to vote.

Wot are you offering, Winnie?............

Is that truly the only option I have available?

Cheers to all. 

growth is history....the new growth is now not to shrink too much....

Actually I think the Nats have done a bit to re-balance, bearing in mind the last thing anyone wants is a collapse in the NZ property ponzi scheme....more probably needs to be done but slowly....

regards

@Steve:  thanks for this

Can't agree on the Ponzi tho - think the props should be taken away - encourage real economic growth rather than consumption- & property-driven growth.  Would be greater initial pain, but hopefully quicker restructuring. & time isn't on our side.

Our present position of "only" about a 2% Current Account Deficit is dependant upon historically high commodity prices, which have a cyclical habit.

Unpalatable to politicians & various vested interests of course to introduce real reform, especially in election year.........

God the Labour/Greens/Mana/Maori/NZ 1st concept is going to wake me up screaming tonite!

Cheers

Our economy is described as a property market (which NZers use as ATMs) with other bits tacked on.....

So consider that a huge drop in the property market, (and I mean 30~50%) would wipe out a huge % of ppl who have limited equity in their single houses (as opposed to PIs)....when you do that, they as consumers stop spending and will stop spending for 5+ years...maybe 10... The Govn's tax take and economy would seriously contract and unemployment could double.....you just have to look at the effect on some of the US states to see that in action....

Labour et al etc, to be honest it frightens me less than National being dragged to the right by ACT....the former as a Govn would probably just lock up, the latter would be Hayek mk2 ie a clear and huge deflationary/depression effect....

Commodity prices, we are past peak oil and see weather changing events from AGW....commodities prices except if we see a depression are staying high IMHO...

regards

 

There are two other options available - no vote or a protest vote.

Add a box to your voting ballot and give it a big tick - None of the above!

I still maintain Meh....a no vote ...is... a vote for the sitting administration...perhaphs not set in stone.... but usually a poor turnout fails to unseat the sitting Govt.

Its Friday...........Yay..! the unpublished follow up on Dick Cheney's Hunting escapades

 

Dick goes hunting.....he pauses for rest the fat useless pustule...placing the gun in an upright position leaning against a handy shrub...just then a gust of wind rips from nowhere, the gun falls over and discharges, shooting him in the genitals.

Several hours later, lying in a hospital bed, he was approached by his doctor.

"Well Mr Cheney sir, I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that you are going to be OK. The damage was local to your groin, there was very little internal damage and we were able to remove all of the buckshot."

"What's the bad news?" asked  Dick

"The bad news is that there was some pretty extensive buckshot damage done to your willy which left quite a few holes in it. I'm going to have to refer you to my sister."

"Well I guess that isn't too bad," Dick replied. "Is your sister a plastic surgeon?"

Not exactly," answered the doctor. "She's a flute player in the Boston Symphony Orchestra. She's going to teach you where to put your fingers so you don't piss in your eye."

LOL....

regards

Well makes no difference who will govern our country, result will be the same.  You can't vote against an uneducated majority, so best hunker down and ride it out.  See Public Choice Theory.

Real change only comes when opposing forces overwhelm the status quo.    Although the people who realise this have already hedged against it.

Bernard could join them as an economic adviser

Add Brian Gaynor.  He's great value, & really onto the key issues facing NZ.  No one listens to him tho...........

Don't leave out Garnished Banana......one smart cookie that boy...!

Gareth Morgan and his big bag of throbbing kahunas ........ ?

Shamubeel Egub.......telling it like it is....Fran Osullivan kicking some goolies......

oh this is shaping up ....!

Camry Bagrie , Liam Damn ....... Tony Alexander ...... oooooops , stepped over the edge there , methinks !

FYI, Imperator Fish has a good take on the Roy Morgan poll:

http://www.imperatorfish.com/2011/06/roy-morgan-poll-some-gains-for-left-but.html?spref=tw

If the Nats get say 45% of the popular vote, Dunne loses, and ACT and the Maori Party get between them say four seats, National could find itself agonisingly short of the numbers needed to govern.

But it’s not all good news for the left. The Greens have taken a hit in the poll, down from 10% to 6.5%. There’s a theory (I don’t know how reliable it is) that support for the Greens in the opinion polls is always higher than at the ballot box, because a lot of young people who don’t bother to vote on the day will tell the pollsters they support the Greens. If that is true, and if this latest poll is reliable, the Greens are not out of danger. On present numbers Labour will need the support of the Greens to form a government.

I wouldn’t read too much into the statement by the Greens during their annual conference that they might be able to work with National. In reality they’re poles apart on just about every issue. The statement was intended to make it clear to Labour that support for the Greens should not be taken for granted. And fair enough too. 

It’s hard to know where NZ First will end up, but my suspicion is that they’ll fall short of the 5% mark. That’s not necessarily a disaster for the left, because Winston Peters is regarded by some as toxic, and if Peters does end up with say 4% of the vote they won’t all be coming from the left. 

In terms of Green's being down what has been their historical %?

1999 - 5.2%

2002 - 7%

2005 - 5.3%

2008 - 6.72%

So 6.5% is about par for the course...

If I look at the Roy Morgan poll I see some trends.....National are pretty flat, Labour gaining a bit, green's dropping a bit....but its a bit early to say for me there is anything much here....what is interesting is Ive seen no surge in ACT....

regards

Alex : Why would anyone from the right vote for Winnie , given that JK ruled out NZ First as a coalition partner with National , in February ? ...... Surely all his votes must come from the left of centre .

Not sure...

Perhaps a former Labour voter who swung to National last election, is dissatisfied with National but still dissatisfied with Labour?

But you're right. If someone were on the right (ie not a centrist voter described above), you'd prob go to Brash if dissatisfied with National

Cheers

Alex

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