Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news the Labour Party is expected to announce plans for a Capital Gains Tax for rental property investors if it wins government in the November 26 election.
Various media reported that Labour would propose a capital gains tax on residential property other than the family home. It would not be retrospective and not be triggered by a death in the family, NZHerald reported.
Labour has yet to confirm the plans, but would not rule out a Capital Gains Tax yesterday. See Alex Tarrant's article here.
Prime Minister John Key was quoted as saying such a tax would crush everyday New Zealanders and he had no interest in introducing a new tax.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its official cash rate on hold at 4.75% yesterday and signalled the Australian economy was softening. It painted a picture of a two speed economy with the domestic and manufacturing sectors struggling with high debt and a high Australian dollar, while mining did well because of a boom in commodity prices.
Markets do not expect an Australian rate hike for another couple of months. See more here at The Australian.
Meanwhile, Moody's has warned that China's banks face much bigger than expected losses on loans made to local governments during a lending spree in 2009. It said there was a risk state banks would need bailouts or restructurings which could further slow the Chinese economy. See more here at BBC.
This is a concern for New Zealand because any sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy could hit commodity prices and slow demand from our second biggest buyer of exports and the biggest buyer of exports from Australia, which in turn is the biggest buyer of New Zealand exports.
Elsewhere, Moody's slashed Portugal's credit rating by four notches to a junk rating of Ba2, saying Portugal would struggle to meet its budget deficit and growth targets. It warned it may need a new bailout. See more here at Reuters.
Meanwhile, as if to reinforce fears of a slowing global economy, the latest results from Fonterra's GlobalDairyTrade auction overnight showed prices falling around 6.7% and being down 15.8% from their march peak.
The New Zealand dollar fell slightly.
No chart with that title exists.
71 Comments
Labour seems determined to keep NZ a poor- backwater , low wage , welfare dependant state. They have got to be one of the biggest buch of asreholes New Zealand has ever seen.
CGT is a discredited tax that many countries have abolished . It costs almost as much to police as it collects, and people structure their affairs to avoid paying it . Second and third houses get transferred to trusts or children, assets are hidden from prying eyes . All this schemeing costs money , takes time and is unproductive use of resources
Just because people circumvent a law doesn`t make the law wrong.
Should our country reward circumventers more than your local rubbish collector who works to make lot`s of our lives tidier.
I`m all for equality of chance,not whose got the money to circumvent ,and CGT sensibly brought into our country seems one means to get fairness in our taxation system.
You dont need to get personal to make your point..... . You are welcome to check with the NZ land registry , I have only ever owned one house in New Zealand , in Chester Ave, Greenhithe, Auckland.
I firmly beleive that Capital Gains Tax discourages wealth creation, and if you want to remain a poor Kiwi, then vote for Labour .
We all know the state will not be able to support BABY BOOM NZers in the next few years , so taxing private wealth creation is disingeneous
The problem will come later when you retire with no savings or investments , and discover the NZ Super does not cover your food bill.
Voting for labour is like a turkey voting for Christmas
Boatman - flawed argument.
There is no such thing as 'wealth creation'.
Wealth is the ability to purchase goods and services. They have to be made/supplied. Wealth can indeed be gotten from either.
Those who parasite without making/supplying, still expect their 'wealth' to purchase real goods/services.
Clearly, that's a game of musical chairs, the removal of the chairs being measured by the amount of parasitism. The problem, is that when folk (who like you who think it's 'created') run ahead of themselves, 'creating' at growing rates. Central banks, commercial banks and takers-out of debt, are the culprits. That leaves an expectation which is not underwritable, and which has to be logged as inflated 'valuations' of existing stuff (read, houses etc).
The giveaway is the word 'believe'. Things either is or they isn't. Belief doesn't come into it.
The interesting thing is that, as real underwriting of real wealth - energy - dwindles, so too will the Capital Gains made.......so you could argue that this will be squeezing blood out of a drying stone.....
Your point is taken , however everyone should save and invest . And you should not be taxed on your wealth.
By taxing wealth , you effectively penalise prudent and careful savers and reward people who spend everything they earn
Germany is the only country in the Euro zone not in trouble .
Why ?
Becasue Germans save on average 16% of what they earn , they invest in Capital growth assets like Companies or Property .
The Chinese are rumoured to save as much as 30% of what they earn .
Personal wealth creation ( savings and investment) are essential to our survival in this modern world
PDK, I think the flaw is in peoples perception of "wealth" as purely a financial concept.
For example, I have some savings, paid employment but I don't own my own home. Financially I may be wealthier than some but not as wealthy as others. I consider myself to have an abundance of general knowledge and intelligence. I have a loving partner, son, a large and supportive extended family and many friends. Am I wealthy, damn right I am.
I believe you have a wealth of specific and general knowledge and most likely a loving family with decent values. Are you wealthy - I believe so. The majority of people probably only view your wealth based on the dollar value of your home and property.
What's the bet this is all kept secret....swept under the rubble.!
"Complaints have been laid with the Auditor-General's Office about the Christchurch City Council's handling of consultants' contracts.
A spokeswoman for the office said yesterday it had received two complaints about the appointment of consultants, without city councillor approval, to work on the central city plan, and the breach of the $500,000 delegated authority limit by council staff.
The office was considering its response, she said. More complaints look likely.
Cr Tim Carter – who with councillors Jimmy Chen, Jamie Gough, Yani Johanson and Glenn Livingstone has been questioning the council's awarding of more than $2.8 million of contracts to consultants – said it was crucial the Auditor-General investigate as the next step" stuff
Tools 2 & 3 can be used if CGT is proven avoidable. Those immediate options are ~ a Land Tax and/or Stamp Duty. Listen to what your Government is saying ( and all members of parliament/parties are part of our system of Government). The days of 'get rich out of property' are over. One way or another or another, property investment has had its run until such time as it makes economic sense in the interest of the nation, not the individual.
I have posted before about our flawed approach modern medicine takes , and a capital gains tax is similarly flawed.
Rather than tackle the cause we treat the symptoms. While you may suppress the symptom all that does is allow the disease to continue to cause damage until it manifests itself in some other way.
I thought praying was a last resort for your PDK:)
Short answer because I am inventing today and don't have time to fully analyse.
Is it not primarily a monetary problem? You keep expanding and leveraging the money supply and prices have to rise. What is that saying I have come across recently about inflation always being a monetary phenomenon. Isn't that what asset bubbles are all about? You have to tackle that first before you deal with the periphery issues.
Or did you want the medical answer?:)
"The New Zealand Security Intelligence Service Amendment Bill was passed by Parliament on Tuesday night, allowing the SIS to monitor and intercept cellphone calls, texts and emails.
Green MP Keith Locke says ... the bill is unnecessary because New Zealand does not have any enemies." radionz
How does Locke know that?.....
There is no possibility of 1.8 million workers repaying around €200 billion in debts arising from the collapse of the banking system within any reasonable time frame, outgoing president of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions Jack O'Connor has said.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0705/breaking28.html
gotta say I'm not that convinced by CGT.
Philosophically, I think it makes sense. It seems inequitable not to tax gains in property, when most other forms of income are taxed.
And it could be a good source of Govt revenue. Although, given house prices are unlikely to rise much in the next few years, its debateable how much revenue it would really generate.
Negatives? Well, potentially it could deter the building of new apartments and units, as taxing capital gains will make property investment less appealing. This could have the effect of inflating rentals, with less rental supply coming onto the market.
And CGT doesn't seem to have deterred rampant house price growth overseas.
On balance, I can see pros and cons, but I'm not convinced.
I think it would be far better to focus on looking at ways of freeing up the supply of housing, and introducing Loan to Value ratio regulation
Landlords charge the most they think they can sensibly get away with (what the market can pay) . That won't change but the argument that landlords will have to increase rent to compensate for a cgt is absolute garbage since cgt is only payable when the property is sold.
Building new apartments/units isn't property investment, it's property development and the net profit of the development is taxed per normal tax rules. The building of new apartments/units is already less appealing due to the inflated cost of land, council planning rules, development costs and material costs.
The govt. provides services and tax is how we pay for it. CGT is a tax pure and simple like any other tax. In theory CGT or land tax does make sense if the idea is to broaden the tax base so that direct income taxes can be reduced. It does not address housing affordability so comparing with other countries who have CGT but still had housing bubbles is incorrect. Housing affordability would need to be addressed first before implementing a tax on property.
A capital gain is still income so why shouldn't it be taxed? Why should one group of people be exempt from paying tax? If a CGT isn't payable on the sale of shares or the sale of a business why isn't everyone investing in these areas?
Either way none of it benefits the taxpayer if the government can't/wont spend our taxes responsibly.
Will this be National's counter attack?
http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/07/uk-moves-to-reflate-housing-market/
Building new apartments/units isn't property investment, it's property development and the net profit of the development is taxed per normal tax rules. The building of new apartments/units is already less appealing due to the inflated cost of land, council planning rules, development costs and material costs.
Your last point is absolutely correct. But a CGT will make building apartments even less appealing. The reason ? The vast majority of apartment units are owned as investment properties. Yields on apartments built today are already stacking up on paper as poor, capital gains can somewhat compensate poorer yield - tax capital gains and we will see even fewer apartments built, therefore limiting supply and pushing up prices. Counter productive!
Just look to Aus and the UK as markets which have had CGT as evidence that it does not stop hot property markets. In fact, like much regulation, it may have actually heated markets up.
I think a land tax makes more sense. It creates greater incentive for land bankers to develop the land, therefore providing more housing to the market.
Then free up planning rules (within reason and subject to checks and balances) and introduce LVR controls.
You are correct that markets which have a CGT still had heated property markets. That is because a tax in itself does not address the issues that caused the housing bubble (or any bubble for that matter). Tax is only ever a revenue for the Government.
I agree a land tax may be more suitable but the planning rules need to be fixed first. There's no point taxing someone owning a large parcel of land if they are unable to provide it to the market.
Some thoughts:
1) Why not?
2) CGT only to be paid on the land based property assets of a business. This doesn't disincentivise non-passive investors who set out to generate wealth other than by land based property speculation. Or back to 1) - why not?
3) Land tax - why:
4 Billion tax take predicted on a GCT... how?? 200,000 people with an investment property according to last census... thats an average 20k tax per year per investor... Tui advert coming up.... Takes 15 years before the tax take of lets be realistic say 500 million a year even starts to properly come in... Phil will be spending the 12 billion in the first term... lets hope for another working for families type policy where we put 100% of our income into the government they employ everyone and distribute it evenly...
Actually the $4,000,000,000 tax take would be 15% of the gain so they must be expecting $26,000,000,000 to be made in capital gains a year by the proportion of the 200,000 property investors who sell each year. Say 5% of investors sell every year that would be 10,000.
So they are expecting $26B of capital gains to be made by 10,000 investors which equates to $2,600,000 per investor. If this average investor sells 3 x $350K properties each would need to have made a $866K CG to get that profit.
So for this plan to work property values would need to increase by 250% per annum.
I think this is unlikely.
I can’t stand Labour, but out of principle will be voting for them purely on the CGT.
NZ has been crippled by a lack of investment in productive areas, and a big reason for this was our national obsession with buy-to-let. NZ wonders why month on month we are seeing record young kiwis leave. The lack of investment has created a low wage economy with sky high property prices….no wonder so many are voting with their feet.
JK has built his fortune on speculation, so he is the last person to challenge this ‘get rich quick’ mentality.
You are mising the point completely . Another new tax like CGT will cause more people to leave . Its low wages , high taxes and middle class welfare like Working for families that is making young Kiwis leave
Lumber them with another tax in the form of CGT and more of them will seek greener pastures elasewhere.
Dont vote for Labour..... its easier to commit suicide
"Another new tax like CGT will cause more people to leave."
Nope. People leave because NZ wage scales are too low to be able to survive on them and lead a life worth living. Those who stay are either too poor to leave, or are making too much money to want or have to go.
The latter have greatly prospered off the backs of those who most feel compelled to get out in search of a better life for themselves and their families. When you can get away with paying employees next to nothing and offering them few if any benefits, your margins are looking good.
It's only when somebody threatens to make them finally pay their fair share to the rest of society that the whinging tax-dodging freeloaders start stamping their feet like little girls and threatening to leave...even though they know it's nothing but a bluff.
How would they do if they abandoned their gravy train and tried to compete in a grown up economy for once? ("Not well", is the answer.)
This is your assumption, there are more "taxes" than just the Govn ones. The young ppl I talk to say its that one of the key reasons is property is too expensive to stay (or come here) in relation to the wages. I actually know someone we are about to re-employ after they went to sydney for more money. After 9 months they want back because the house and rent prices there are crippling....despite earning more.
We dont have high taxes in proportion to other OECD countries, so ppl leaving because of high taxes is a political view that isnt well supported by data.
regards
If the government is borrowing 360 million a week then it stands to reason that at some stage in the future they are going to increase taxes , cut spending, sell assets or all of the above, enough to stop borrowing plus a little extra for the interest bill we are racking up.
Why are we talking about new ways to tax the country instead of new ways to restrict or decrease govt spending and expansion. It's austerity before the austerity is rammed down kiwi throats hard.
It's an easy debate for those here though right because challenging the govt might mean getting off your collective arses because you don't get heard via a blog or 1zb.
I will add , this tax is a flawed idea , it will cost more than they raise, it will create new ways to avoid tax via unintended consequence for certain, it's the kiwi legacy.. What will potentially boom is the legal & bean counters who I'm sure are hoping all day that this tax comes into being. Tax is only for revenue , they dont care about what is fair , so anyone wishing this in , think very carefully about why you want this , and how it might have negative effects. Anyone who says they will vote on this issue only , please refrain as this issue is a side show at best
TrimChai if thats all it takes then you have no principles.. I agree Elley GC is essentially inflation and supply and demand created.. what happens when the market does completly crash? do you get a 500,000 tax credit carried over for the next 25 years.. they can't have it both ways...
Voting for the 'Currency King' JK would also show a lack of principles.
He may be good for the locals of Epsom and Herne bay, but the future of NZ is dependent on developing a high value export economy that generates skilled jobs with good wages.
The only thing JK can create is a high kiwi dollar, which destroys the export activity NZ needs.
When the property doom is a distant memory and the Baby Boomers are dribbling in MetLife Care, young kiwis will need jobs to generate wealth, and a GCT is the start of shirting money from property to business.
Wol from 1945 to 1980 taxes were high and growth was high. I don't believe that endlessly cutting taxes is the answer.
Also studies have been done on areas where taxes on high earners were increased and those people DID NOT move away (NewJersey most recently I believe). It's a common threat of people to say variants of "if you increase my taxes i'm outta here" but i suspect its just talk. People live where they do for a lot of reasons other than tax rates.
I do agree with your lust for slashing the public service and PM's wages though....for one i'd make the only taxpayer accom for mp's halls-of-residence style apartments - if they want fancy they can pay for it themselves.
Ivan.. i really hope youre right.. but Labour can promise anything they like thinking they will never have to implement.. A large undercurrent of JK hatred being spread.. some people hate him because of his smile... and they get to vote... wow what an intelligent society we live in..
How come some people advocate both:
- reducing the price of fruit and vegetables by DECREASING tax
- reducing the price of housing by INCREASING tax
How come they never blame the obsene price of tomatoes on foreign buyers, speculators and unfair tax advantages over cabbages?
How come they never blame the price of houses on major supply problems?
Jonosap - has the map of the area changed over say, 100 years? Piha gone further west, perchance? Global demand for food gone down, perchance? Maybe the tide's gone out.
Welcome to converging parameters long foretold.
It's called 'the physical limits to growth'.
Only denied by idiots, politicians and economists.
Alasdair Thompson has got the boot from the EMA.
"The board of Employers and Manufacturers Association Northern Inc (EMA) has today dismissed its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Alasdair Thompson.
President of the EMA Board, Graham Mountfort said the decision relates to media interviews Mr Thompson gave on the 23rd June and the resulting consequences.
"After having considered this matter for some time the Board believes Mr Thompson is no longer able to continue as CEO of the organisation.
"We regret that Alasdair's role with the EMA is ending in this manner, especially considering the contribution he has made over the past 12 years.
"However under the circumstances the Board has had to make this difficult decision."
"As this is an employment matter, we do not believe is it appropriate for the EMA to be making further comment at this time" said Mr Mountfort.
Mr Mountfort said that Bruce Goldsworthy has been appointed acting CEO for the EMA."
".The eurozone, in short, is confronting a frightening sovereign debt challenge, aggravated by the dependence of its banks on support from its states and of its states on finance from its banks".
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/113bd482-a737-11e0-b6d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RI2nEKuL
Part of a comment by Bill Gross on the usa...it has a familiar ring to it don't you think!
"If we are to compete globally while maintaining a higher wage base, we must train for “middle” in addition to “high” tech. Philosophy, sociology and liberal arts agendas will no longer suffice. Skill-based education is a must, as is science and math.
The private sector is the source of long-term job creation but in the short term, no rational observer can believe that global or even small businesses will invest here when the labor over there is so much cheaper. That is why trillions of dollars of corporate cash rest impotently on balance sheets awaiting global – non-U.S. – investment opportunities. Our labor force is too expensive and poorly educated for today's marketplace"
The bored of NZ EMA have sacked Alasdair Thompson today . ... A real man's man , ousted because he dared to exercise his freedom of speech ...... we'll have none of that in the NZ MEA ....... uhhh , shag , I'm cumfuddled now , NZ AME ? ..........
.... sanitary napkins !!!
Which lot is Les Rudd's ? ..... it's not them , OK ! ..... Alasdair was with the other mob , those pussies over at the NZ MEA ... I think .......
Funny you should say that, gummy. I was having lunch with a gay friend of mine the other day and he described himself as a man's man. I wonder what Alasdair Thompson would make of that? Of course he also said (my friend that is) when I meet up with him that he was so hungry he could eat a women. (let's see how long before the site pulls that one! lol)
But it is ironic that we are being encouraged to be more tolerant to women wearing full face burkhas, while at the same time that plea for tolerance is not been extended to Alasdair Thompson, a man. I mean if we were all sacked because of the stupid things we had said at work, then none of us would have jobs. And Steven and PDK, well, they wouldn't even get one!
I was thinking more along the lines of Tim-the-tool-man-Taylor , when I said " a man's man " ... Using a sledgehammer to remove beer bottle tops , grabbing the chainsaw to carve a roast chcken , that sort of thing ......
..... I doubt that Alasdair T. is a Darren Hughes style " man's man " ...... hello honky tonks , how are you , oh jolly good ...... want a Shrewsberry , or something harder ? Hmmm !
==================================================================
Test the tolerance myth , don a burkha or a balaclava , and nip into the local branch of your bank ....... Gummy reckons your civil liberties , not to mention your goolies , would get stomped all over quick smart .
==================================================================
What's the price of Yellow-fin tuna in NZ ? .. Some guys here landed a 100 kg beauty , and sold it for 9000 pesos ( $NZ 270 ) ...... even allowing for the head & tail , that's $ 4 / kg or so !
===================================================================
[ re. steven & PDK : One suspects that each of them is a permanent leech upon the tax-payers' bum , civil serpents , but without proof , I won't actually say that they are ]
Got to give some marks to Labour for this:
"The proposed Freedom Camping Bill is too heavy-handed and threatens to destroy the New Zealand tradition of enjoying the outdoors, Labour's local government spokesman Phil Twyford says. Labour has withdrawn its initial support..."
Let's hope the bill ends up in the shredder and the council money grab is stopped. Had they slipped this madness through into law the next on their list was to be fines for inappropriate dress in a public place.
"IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS WARNING IS BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AN EARTHQUAKE OF THIS SIZE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THAT CAN STRIKE COASTLINES IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN MINUTES TO HOURS." PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 1912Z 06 JUL 2011
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.