Retail spending flat in Nov; Trend in core retailing flattens as Christmas nears, despite strong growth in retail spending over recent months

Retail spending flat in Nov; Trend in core retailing flattens as Christmas nears, despite strong growth in retail spending over recent months

The trend in core retail spending with electronic cards has flattened off in recent months as Christmas approaches, figures released by Statistics New Zealand show.

Electronic card spending was flat in November 2011, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday morning. When adjusted for seasonal effects, the value of transactions decreased 0.2 percent. This followed a 1.8 percent increase in October.

"The 1.3 percent decrease in spending in core retail was particularly noticeable," industry and labour statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said.

"This decrease was not led by any particular industry group, as three of the four core retail industries had falls in November," she said.

In core retail (which excludes the motor vehicle-related industries), the consumables, hospitality, and apparel industries were all down NZ$14 million. Durables (up NZ$2 million) was the only core retail industry where electronic card spending rose in November.

With the motor vehicle-related industries added, spending across all retail industries was down 0.5 percent in November. Of the six retail industry groups, fuel retailing (up NZ$24 million) had the largest rise in the value of transactions. November was the fourth consecutive month of strong rises in this industry, Stats NZ said.

When the two industries outside of retail (non-retail and services) were included, the total value of transactions decreased 0.2 percent.

"Trends for the value of transactions in the total and retail series have been strong in recent months, but the core retail trend has now flattened," Stats NZ said.

Reaction

ASB said the surge in World Cup spending in October petered out in November:

The 0.5% decline in retail card spending follows on from some strong results over the previous two months. The strength in retail spending over September and October reflected the boost from the Rugby World Cup, and once the effects had been accounted for the results point to a gradual recovery in underlying retail spending. The decline in card spending in November suggest the effects of the Rugby World Cup are short-lived, with declines in card spending in the apparel and hospitality sectors more than reversing the boost in the previous month.

Partly offsetting these declines was another robust increase in spending on fuel. Petrol prices fell slightly over the month, suggesting there has been growth in the volume of spending on fuel in recent months. 

Today’s result suggests the boost to spending from the Rugby World Cup was brief, with many of the large increases in the categories seen in the previous month reversing out in November. Beyond the effects of the World Cup, we are continuing to see a recovery in underlying retail spending taking place. Whilst we expect this recovery to continue over the coming year, it is likely to occur at a gradual pace in light of the continued high level of household debt.

JP Morgan's Ben Jarman said retail sales had come back to earth after the World Cup.

While the headline spending data seem to be showing the economy losing momentum sharply going into year-end, in our view the reality is less interesting. The trend in retail card sales is running at 0.5%m/m, and this will ease in coming months as the RWC boost fades, but the broader data suggest the economy continues to grow, if only at a subdued pace.

Against this backdrop, and with large downside risks looming offshore, the RBNZ have no urgency to move policy, as was shown in yesterday’s MPS. Maintenance of easy policy will allow households to progress with deleveraging, with the income lift from the construction sector next year to boost spending thereafter.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Everyone must be out there using all their extra cash to buy property...

This is a bit tongue in cheek, butt ye may get my drift..and the joke......if awake...It is Friday..after all.

Just doing my bit to.................. Promote Windy Wellington.

http://www.trademe.co.nz/business-farming-industry/businesses-for-sale/services/other/auction-430048852.htm

I am merely pointing out a business opportunity in  WW..fair city and  home to all polllies.

As sum will buy and sell anything for a profit these days.  

No small wonder why retail is flat...after the World Cup.

Cash businesses are the deal.

Down, Butt it could be perked up, or even run as a Pollyticians side-line.

(The perks must be enourmous....and the barrel, may need a prime...or any .munnyster to promote ...whilst the free trade agreements we have are in a trough).

Seems we have a few jokers here...too.......so do the sums...make an offer..and lie back and wait for a result...they might bite, if really desperate. 

When competition is a bit stiff and the figures are not up to much, advertise yerself on Trade-me...and max-imise your returns.

Interest may be lacking in this regard..Burnhard, but I do keep pushing yours and the sights benefits and downfalls, other than Politics and Banking.

One has to keep an eye on the sites future prospects....may be a reciprocal agreement and a banner display and the rates applying.

But...and it is a big BUTT......I digress....haphazzardly...a-gain.

When the corr factor involves rude health, then buyer beware as usaul a-again..

Due diligence may also be needed as the Asian products are far cheaper and more readily available and imported and discounted to gain market share.

Call now Guys and Dolls if so inclined.

I will not take a commission as that would not be ethical...in this free and fair trade in the windy city.

So fill yer boots....I may not even tell yer partners....nudge nudge.....wink...wink....

If it is not yer bent......as some pollies are and are not.....then...please disregard.

PS...

Or maybe John could make it part of the fore-shaw...and see bed....deal... and liven up...the ante....as part of the cash cow....perks.

MINING is not the only growth industry....the papers are full of the real growth...like the above..., butt cellphone numbers for sum reason the only real contact....NOT TRADE-ME.

 

 

do you supply Penecillin as well for those pollies who have eveything??

But how can this be? The RWC was supposed to Put New Zealand On The Map. Just like the Americas Cup. And the Commonwealth Games. Etc.

The RWC is now seen for what it was. A complete non event with no longterm benefits. 

If retailers think the last three years have been tough...they are in for a shock post xmas....a big shock.

Look for places to close down ...shutdown.... falldown.

Govt gst revenue set to plummet.

Tourism will likely turn septic looking.

Term rates on mortgages set to rise.

The promised 170,000 new jobs...who said that!

Commodity prices on the slide.

Building sector to get a huge boost in late 2011 from the chch rebuild..err I mean early 2012....oh no sorry that'll be late 2012...woops make that early 2013...doh

It's party time somewhere in a NZ town near you...yes a new house is being built...everyone is so happy they have turned the event into a celebration of what used to be...come dressed in your trade outfit and bring your own food..and grog...mind out for the road tax collectors...!

 "Despite a growing federal deficit and the widespread economic stability that has swept the U.S since 2008, the companies in question managed to accumulate profits of $164 billion between 2008 and 2010, while receiving combined tax rebates totaling almost $11 billion. Moreover, Public Campaign reports these companies spent about $476 million during the same period to lobby the U.S. Congress, as well as another $22 million on federal campaigns, while in some instances laying off employees and increasing executive compensation."

And who would dare suggest the usa will follow Greece into a hole....

What a fabulous farce of a nation...mind you had they paid over a third of the fat in tax we all know the fathead us govt would have splurged on even more stupid ideas like painting all the rocks white...oh they're doing that already...well you know what I mean.

 

'will this finally be the year where people actually cut back on buying tat for people they don't really like or will this turn out to be yet another year of bumper tat buying? '

I'm sending Wonkey and Wild Bill a pair of pants....they can have a leg each. Where's the booze..I need a drink.

Looks like I was lucky to miss the election and the lead up...same old same old news...