Prime Minister John Key will not say whether the government still expects to get its books back to surplus in the 2014/15 year.
Speaking to media at a post-Cabinet press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Key would not say what the government's expected track was, telling media to wait for more details in a speech he is set to give on Thursday.
Key noted the IMF's recent downgrades to its global growth forecasts, and noted economic problems in Europe over the last few months.
The government was looking to get back to surplus as quickly as possible he said - "as soon as we can".
Key's comments tomorrow will be influenced by initial Treasury figures as it prepares a Budget policy document to be released in February, with informal forecasts for the New Zealand economy.
Developments in the Eurozone since Treasury's pre election forecasts last year have already seen Treasury tone down its expected growth track for next year.
In December Key was still musing about returning the government's books to surplus earlier than 2014/15.
'Conscious of Europe'
Key said his speech tomorrow would include a general overview of where the economy would head during the next year.
“Obviously we’re conscious like everyone else of the situation in Europe,” he told media.
He had received advice on the implications of the IMF’s revised global growth outlook released in the last week, with those implications to be incorporated in his Thursday speech.
When asked if he still expected a 2014/15 surplus, he replied: “You’ll have to wait 'til tomorrow.”
He himself was optimistic for the New Zealand economy in 2012.
“If you look at what’s happening in Europe, yes, there have been significant issues, and that’s been reflected in Standard & Poor’s downgrading of 15 countries in the Eurozone," Key said.
“Yes, the IMF have come out today and said if they’re not careful then the [expected global] growth that they downgraded ... from 4% to 3.3% could be downgraded to 1.3%,” he said.
“That’s a significant issue. But the IMF also said today that there are a number of options on the table, and those measures need to be taken. So I saw the comments by the chief economist at the IMF as somewhat of a warning shot across the bows of Europe – that they actually need to follow those steps.”
(Updates with quotes from Key, video)
15 Comments
JK's dreaming if he thinks that this is going to happen, just shows how clueless the politicians are. The future drain on state funds by all the various welfare recipients guarantees deficits for the foreseeable future, never mind the economic train wrecks going on in the US, Eurozone, China & Japan. Is it possible to bet on this outcome?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b75CQKr-oSg
Well I've never had this problem
Nobody in the Government
I guess I always figured it
They never mean what they meant
And God help us all
Not to be so stone surprised
When we wake up in the stars
With the skies in our eyes
If we keep tellin'
Lies, lies, lies, lies
Lies, lies, lies, lies
Lies, lies, lies, lies
Lies, lies, lies
There will be no return to surplus end of story. At the very best we may see a balance by 2020 but I doubt it. The 170,000 new jobs were never going to turn up. The bloated salaries for senior state servants and the endless pay rises for MPs....not exactly vote collecting stuff when the country is in a recession environment and most Kiwi survive on sweet bugger all.
National are now odds on losers in 2014. All it will take is for Shearer to rid the Labour Party Caucus of the leftovers from Clark and his declared intention to bring an end to the flawed economic model that sees Kiwi as perpetual mortgage slaves to the banks, inside property bubbles that are protected by the RBNZ.
National are now odds on losers in 2014.
I agree but only if Shearer transforms in to a strong and credible leader, and gets some decent new faces behind him.
Within the next year or so I think we'll see unemployment shoot up to around 7% or more, as opposed to the govt's goals of cutting it down to closer to 5%, the books will get even more out of shape as benefit payments go up and tax revenue stagnates or drops, and the nats undertake an unpopular asset sale program.
Even if these things happen then the nats could still win if Labour doesn't regain credibilty
PM Key doesn’t make analyses from the broad prospect of the average Kiwi – the wider NZpopulation. He and some of the party members misjudge the economic/ financial situation like their buddies – most others of the 22’000 NZmillionaires.
J. Key’s way of thinking is based on traditional megalomaniac ambitions for growth – increasing debts, the destruction of our health and environment. Reality in today's world paints a different picture – a step forward back to the roots – a 100% PureNZ - clean and green economy with decent employment opportunities and far less imports of infrastructure. Great visionary ideas for a small, remote country of 4 million people.
In my opinion - he’s not a real leader, he’s debating style rather embarrassing, doesn’t represent Kiwiland and will be sacked by his own party by end of 2012.
Key is just a gambler. See my comments on Amanda's thread on that. Like all gamblers there is an element of luck to their activities. He was in the right place at the right time and make a lot of money not because he was particularly clever but because he took risks and was lucky with the outcome.
Now he gambles with New Zealand, with your future and your childrens future. I dont' expect a good result.
Shearer will replace Key next election, and the sold assets will be hamstrung to varying degree. That much is a given. The elite is too numerically small, too disliked, and - as Shirtcliffe proved re MMP - can't buy votes over the long laul (spin is a short-term lie, with built-in backlash.
I think Key may be a genuinely 'nice guy', but he's a wasted space in the same way Obama has turned out to be - neither are addressing reality, nor even acknowledging it. We're just watching the end-game death-throes of an ideology whose basic theory was fatally flawed. I don't think either have the skills or the logic-capability to morph, either.
Even the Greens don't get it yet - at least, not publicly. Touchy-feely get in touch with our roots, isn'r going to do it either. Jeanette Fitzsimmons was one of the few - if not the only - politician who 'got it', that I ever heard.
New leaders required, yesterday. New media too, while we're at it.
Key is either a idiot or bullshitter, make up you own minds. One thing foresure, debts have a habit of snowballing! Unfortunatly for NZ we are once again on that path. If Key does not understand that he is indeed an idiot. English has already proven his credentials!!! :)
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