90 seconds at 9 am: Risk back in favour; Dow up; NZD up; strong AU jobs growth; Fonterra annouces very big ambitions in China

Tower warns Global meltdown still hanging around ...    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=107…

Comment in the Telegraph, sorry tis along one and hard to link to,

damicol

3 hours ago

As I said in a previous post,  my father taught me at an early age that the best way to get to the bottom of things was to ignore everything anyone tells you.

 Do not listen to their explanations, he said, just look at their actions, and then work out the consequences for yourself.

When you begin to understand the consequences of actions, then you 

have no need to listen to any fine words that get trotted out, only to 

the extent that you would like to know how devious or much they are 

prepared to lie.

If ever there was a time to ignore every single word uttered by any of these hall witted bed wetting  mind numbingly incompetent fools then the time is now.

Lies deceit and more lies is all you will ever hear. Not a single word of truth will ever be spoken again regarding these events because to do so will mean instant death.

Deservedly so. 

For those who not still dribbling down their bibs, the sycophantic acolytes still mouthing their ridiculous and infantile garbage telling us how the problems are all behind us, and those not mathematically challenged and can actually add  2 numbers together without making a mistake, then simply look at the numbers, ignore everything that's said , do the calculations.

An asset is an asset, A value is a variable,  A rate is a variable, and a liability is a variable, that that can rise or fall.

Despite deeply corrupt and illegal practices that have been going on at the ECB, and every central bank in Europe, printing money under what was supposed to be the emergency only provision, hundreds of billions have been printed  and used by those governments  to prop up their failing banks and even pay government salaries.

In the end , they have no option, they will print because the ECB allows them to, and they will print because to not pay the salaries or pensions will mean immediate civil uprising, or thier utterly bankrupt banks will fail instantly and catastrophically.

But the markets already know that the currency is being debased daily this way.

Add all factors together,  but principally the main 2 factors from which everything else is subordinate,

First, Growth:- Is it possible to have growth in all the PIIGS economies with unemployment rising and already at such levels and the SME base that could provide employment so shattered and bankrupted that 30% have already gone, so can never  grow again.

Add in the fact that there is  not a single bank capable of financing these SME's growth even if they were still hanging on to life.

Which means just one thing, and one thing only. The debt trajectory can only ever get bigger, and it can only get bigger at an ever escalating rate. And an ever escalating cost.

And despite every lie and every statement made without a single exception, from every single greasy little trougher in Brussels, it is impossible, absolutely impossible to have the same or equal or even close, level of competitiveness between Germany and Greece, or Spain and Germany  or a dozen other combination's.

And that level of competitiveness is an absolute fundamental requirement if you are to compete and survive in an market.

And the only possible way to keep going is to have the ability to borrow endlessly, with no end in sight, to replace the  CAPITAL  you lose every day.

And the Capital you lose,..... That is the SME's that go bankrupt, the millions of jobs lost, the human capital, the loss of those peoples savings and pensions..

Its now gone and is still being stripped away daily by ever increasing bankruptcies and more and escalating job losses.

Meaning that every day, an ever bigger loan is needed to replace the productive output of that already uncompetitive lost capital.

And the there is capital flight. Each and every day, armies of accountants and bankers and lawyers are not as some may naively think, sitting around watching these events unfold in horror.  They are very busy indeed, working late into the night, planning carefully and acting with speed and precision and with expertise and knowledge that far exceeds the gratuitous stupidity and incompetence of the risible monkeys in Brussels.

They are very busy moving those assets  to safe places, writing contracts that convert euro denominated deals to dollar deals, contracts that limit liability contracts that take away risk and eliminate risk on every asset they  can find.  And of course the wealthy, in each and every one of these countries, who didn't get that way by being stupid, who also understand all too well what is going on.

And their wealth and cash is being inevitably and persistently being liquidated   and moved to safer havens. As fast as can possibly be moved.

But "

David Owen from Jefferies Fixed Income said that the ECB pushes other 

investors "down the food-chain" instantly when it buys Spanish and 

Italian debt, raising the loss ratio if either country slides into a 

Greek-style restructuring."

and then says 

"contortions caused by ECB intervention would not be an issue if 

the bank acted with force majeure and conviction, as the central banks of 

the US, UK and Switzerland have."

Utter garbage that last sentence.

Europe is not the US the UK or Switzerland who can and have and will devalue.

Even as the EU devalues every day with its ponzi scam of printing more and more money,  and Ponzi scheme it is, and ever was thus from its inception,  it only means they all devalue  together making the stronger more competitive in the world, and the PIIGS even less competitive against Germany.

But of course more QE  chucks a shed load of money at banks to waste on govt bonds, that cant be paid and the cost will rise as more capital is lost as rates rise again and the cycle to hell continues.

 But they can make more money mopping that QE up and the lawyers and accountants can have another feeding frenzy converting to safe haven assets, until it has to start all over again.

The end will be one of only two possible outcomes.

Print money for ever  or break up the Euro.

Hyperinflation as ever greater and greater quantities of ever devaluing  euros are printed, Germany greatest fear, or the euro will explode. and be no more.

And every day the inevitable is delayed has one very simple consequence. The debt gets bigger, and the Capital available, the jobs and small businesses to power future growth gets decimated, and so the the need for ever escalating borrowing or money printing.

And for those who do not understand these matters,  anyone anywhere with the knowledge and ability and the means can go and short the euro, can short euro contracts and can use any number of available means to extract value from the ongoing situation.

I have shorted the euro all the way  down from just under 1.40 and with the leverage afforded have made enough to buy a mansion and still have enough change to live comfortably for the rest of my life.

And it all came from Europe , from the ECB and the European banks to be precise.

Now imagine what the real heavyweights and wall street banks are doing.

One thing mathematically certain, they carry on this course, I make another fortune, the smart people will make money and the lying useless criminals in Brussels will lose every European everything they have  for one simple reason,.

Their stupendous grotesque bloated ego's and their sheer grubby corruption and grasping need for power.

• http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/91985…

On Black Friday amid all the unfolding doom, it may be worth remembering that even under advisement of self professed experts not to proceed.......the world will turn .

Apologies up front for the Huge Pavlovabits style billboard.

Man will never reach the moon regardless of all

By George Soros

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f7ac05c8-82fa-11e1-ab78-00144feab49a.htm…

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Well, I wasnt going to comment but I changed my mind.



To read people writing about countries in Europe as if they were states is complete nonsense. Not only is Europe a collection of quasi-states but the implementation of the four freedoms makes it more likely that some sort of Federation will arrive sooner rather than later and probably immediately after the introduction of a proper single currency.



Germany is not the same Germany as of twenty years ago and neither is France nor any of the other members of this group that actually provides to the rest of the world a living example of successful inter-"state" cooperation in action.



Once you allow people capital goods and services to flow then the landscape changes. It changes as clearly as the landscape changed in the UK during the industrial revolution and more recently the rise of the City as one of the world's major financial centres.



Goodness me, some 300k people from France now live and work in London, Germany and France have been running a programme of Government cooperation for some time now, people migrate to where they think the streets are paved with gold, Spanish youngsters search for work in Toulouse, "mixed" marriages are becoming normal and on and on.



You cannot put back the clock it has been running for too long and the only way is forward.



For me it is almost incredible that commentators and posters still talk about "growth" in developed countries when the chances of that happening at a level as in the past is just about zero as a consequence of globalisation.



For me it is almost incredible that people still talk about the benefits of free exchange rates when in modern interconnected economies competing in a globalised world the only benefit from free exchange rates is to be able to compete on price at the bottom of the pile. So you want to compete directly with India and China do you? You want to be nations of baseball cap and running shoe makers.



Granted, being always at the top end is difficult and even niches eventually get overrun but that takes time and requires the developing nations to keep developing at breakneck speed, difficult to do that.



I am not pessimistic about Europe's future quite to the contrary but certain basic things need to happen first : everybody needs to understand that in a globalised world there will be no growth to speak of with obvious implications for public finances, the social models need to be modified (complicated issue that), our money currencies need to be secure and that means fixing the banks but not with incendiary LTROs, I mean really fixing the banks today and not swanning around in the hope that things will take care of themselves because they will not.



As for Mr Soros's proposals there is nothing new there. The terrifying prospect for the future really lies with the US and UK when the Euro becomes the preferred reserve currency.



We ain't seen nothing yet.

PIMCO

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Evolution-Impact-and-Limitations…

So all means what for kiwis on struggle st in the mortg belt?

Jeez a bit less cut and paste please; the links will suffice.