The Reserve Bank will be closely watching to see if two consecutive months of positive net migration to New Zealand becomes a trend that would put more pressure on the Auckland and Canterbury housing markets, ASB economists say.
In the month of October 2012, seasonally adjusted figures showed a net gain of 260 migrants to New Zealand, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.
"This is the fourth time that seasonally adjusted net migration has been positive over the past six months," Stats NZ said.
"There was a seasonally adjusted net loss of 3,200 migrants to Australia in October 2012. The monthly net loss of migrants to Australia has remained fairly steady since March 2011, fluctuating between 3,000 and 3,700," it said.
"Since the start of the series in 1996, the highest ever net loss to Australia was 4,300 in February 2001. This was just before the eligibility of New Zealand citizens to access certain welfare benefits in Australia was changed on 26 February 2001."
ASB senior economist Jane Turner said the recent pick-up in arrivals appeared to be driven by an increase in the number of permanent arrivals from Australia.
"This could reflect the recent slow down in the Australian mining sector, or it may reflect an increase in skilled workers relocating for the Canterbury rebuild," Turner said.
"We also see a small increase in arrivals from other areas of the world, and this could reflect the need to recruit offshore to fill skill shortages," she said.
"We have seen a sharp increase in job adverts in Canterbury. However, as yet this has not been followed by an increase in employment. Anecdotes suggest that employers are having difficulty finding prospects with the right skills.
"Permanent departures were unchanged from September, although we have seen some easing over recent months," Turner said.
"Permanent departures to Australia remain elevated. Meanwhile, there has been further decline in departures to the UK. This likely reflects the recent slowing in the UK economy. Departures to the UK have returned to the lows seen in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis," she said.
House price pressure?
It was still unclear, however, whether the pick in net migration reflected the recent slow down in Australian mining or a lift in workers arriving for the Canterbury rebuild.
"The Reserve Bank will watch this trend closely. A pick up in arrivals into Canterbury would signal a growing workforce and provide further evidence of the rebuild getting underway," Turner said.
"Increased residential construction in Canterbury will be one factor helping reduce some of the pressure on housing market over the coming year. However, the lift in permanent and long-term migration will also exacerbate current strains on the housing market, which is currently struggling with low supply in key areas of Auckland and Canterbury," she said.
Annual losses
Meanwhile, New Zealand has experienced annual net migration losses since the October 2011 year, with the latest figures for the year to October 2012 showing a net 2,319 people left the country permanently.
That was boosted by a net loss of migrants to Australia of 39,330 in the year to October, just off the August 2012 year record of about 40,000, Statistics New Zealand said.
Unadjusted figures showed there were 84,335 permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals in the October 2012 year, the same as the October 2011 year. PLT departures numbered 86,654, up 3 percent from the previous year. This resulted in the net loss of 2,319 migrants in the October 2012 year.
"There have been annual net migration losses since the October 2011 year. New Zealand has experienced many periods of net migration loss. The highest net loss since the PLT migration series started (in April 1921) was 43,600 people in the July 1979 year," Stats NZ said.
In the October 2012 year, the most common ages of arriving and departing migrants were between 15 and 34 years. In this age group, arrivals outnumbered departures by 3,600. There was also a net gain of migrants aged 60 and over (1,400). In contrast, most of the net loss of migrants occurred in ages under 15 years (3,700), and ages 35 to 59 years (3,600).
"A net loss of 39,330 people to Australia contributed to New Zealand's net loss of migrants in the October 2012 year. This is down from the record net loss of 40,000 in the August 2012 year. The October figure resulted from 53,700 departures to Australia, offset by 14,400 arrivals from Australia. In both directions, most migrants were New Zealand citizens," Stats NZ said.
There were net gains of migrants from most other countries in the October 2012 year, led by:
- the United Kingdom (5,700)
- China (5,200)
- India (5,000)
- the Philippines (2,100)
- Germany (1,600)
- Ireland (1,200).
15 Comments
So many numbers.
In summary:
October = net gain of 260 migrants
Year to end of October = net loss of 2319
Some (tony A) has been forecasting a turn round in these numbers for a while - could be turning now then.
This is great because the Auckland housing market could really use a little kick right now.
If I ever contemplated returning to NZ it would most likely be ChCh rather than Auck. Quite a few jobs coming up there, and I think its future economy is much stronger than Auckland's, provided the Council / Govt sort out land supply.
Auckland quite simply will be hampered by its growing traffic gridlock and silly house prices
I am left wondering whther the Treasury is really the Brains Trust we often regard it as being .
As a layperson it is evident to me that there is not one single element contributing to house price increases and its not just the immigration policy .
The factors are :
Low Interest rates (lowest since World War 2)
Atificial land supply constraints ( city limit rules )
Council levies, fees and delays in the subdivision of land process.
Ridiculously high rents for housing.
Immigrants packing in to Auckland when there is no facilitation by Govt. to make land available for housing
Banks wanting to throw any amount of money at borrowers .
Boatman - wonder no longer. The suit wearing, coffee supping, finger tapping, beige mentalities in Treasury and the RB don't have the people's interests at the forefront of their minds. The layperson is like stock to them, they fence you on a section, see how much you can produce, see how much tax revenue you can pay, add other compliance costs you have to pay and conform too etc. They are a bit like Hyenas and other scavengers. Some people live off their own efforts other people live off the efforts of everyone else.
A qualification does not make someone an expert - yet that is what the layperson has been led to believe. Treasury have not proven themselves to be competent, efficient, practical or respectful of the people and people's rights. Seems our lot in Treasury have friends in many other Treasuries around the world given that most countries are struggling with the same financial issues. Perhaps the compare notes on how the stock are performing.
...the majority of these migrants who will have started to arrive on shore , will concern the Reserve Bank from a different perspective.
Do you mean the inability of New Zealand citizens to service the finance costs associated with the need to raise capital to fund infrastructure equal to the skill levels of the immigrants?
New Zealand Association for Migration and Investment director Katy Armstrong said the "mess-up'' was not a good look for New Zealand. "Here we are trying to encourage more to use Immigration's online services, but what we have is an agency with an archaic computer system that cannot support it,'' Ms Armstrong said. Article
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