90 seconds at 9 am: Bernanke talks

90 seconds at 9 am: Bernanke gives himself wiggle-room; Beige Book positive; China risks outflow says IMF; Australia girds; NZ$1 = US$0.791, TWI = 74.8

18th Jul 13, 8:45am by David Chaston

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news it was Ben Bernanke moving markets overnight with his Congressional testimony.

The Fed chief stressed that the central bank's timetable for pulling back on its US$85 billion-a-month bond-buying program hasn't been determined and could be delayed if the economy weakens. He also warned Congress over the impacts of fiscal spending cuts.

These comments reassured markets. Gold fell back after briefly touching US$1,300/oz. Oil rose slightly, and the Dow held steady close to its all-time high.

Also overnight another TBTF bank has reported great results: Bank of America's second-quarter profit jumped 63%, helped by strong profits from global markets, improving credit quality, and cost cutbacks.

The American economy grew at a moderate pace in recent weeks, according to the Fed's "beige book" report just released this morning.

Although the Report struck a fairly optimistic tone led by a strengthening housing market, it did note a waning appetite on the hiring front. And it was somewhat undermined by another report showing a lower level of building permits and slightly slower housing starts in June compared to May.

From China, while it is about to roll out a plan to allow capital to flow more freely, the IMF today warned (page 30) that such changes could lead to a significant outflow of funds if not handled properly. And China has ruled out any major stimulus programs this year, preferring to focus on taking the necessary adjustments of its reform drive.

A slower China affects Australia directly, and the Aussie government is reassessing is position, preparing to make a major economic statement as its revenues start to decline - some reports say 'deeper decline'.

The NZ dollar starts today higher again vs the US dollar at 79.1 USc, 85.6 AUc, and the TWI is at 74.8.

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4 Comments

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Jul 13, 9:15am 1374095719

Link of the day, from one of the best journalists on the planet

http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/265173/were-all-slow-cooking-frogs-pot

Time we had some truths on the table, methinks

by waymad | 18th Jul 13, 12:16pm 1374106591

"it is becoming clear that the impact of warming will also be much greater than anticipated in the developed countries.

In these countries, the problem is extreme weather causing massive floods and prolonged droughts - like the heat wave that hit grain production in the US Midwest last summer, or the coldest spring in 50 years in England, which has cut wheat yields by a third."

So 'warming', 'colding' are all 'extreme weather' now. My, how the world turns....

And this on a measurement base of little over two centuries, and accurate to tenths of a degree only over the last 35 years (satellites), and when we know some of the ocean cycles are multi-decadal and some of the solar cycles (e.g. Gleissberg) are at almost century scales.

Methinks that, as a rich, food producing island with big moats, we shouldn't let GD unduly scare us.

Although, just as Britain had to adapt after the Mediaeval Warm Period ground to a halt around 1350 give or take, we may haveta do something similar if our own 150-year-old current warm period zigs or zags. Which is worrying NASA. Zags rather than zigs, methinks.

But humans are adaptable creatures. We'll make it. Glass half full....

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Jul 13, 1:02pm 1374109340

Waymad, you're smarter than that.

Extra energy in the system, was always going to result in bigger weather events, more often. That says bigger sucking of polar air towards the equator, so record cold events within an average warming. Bigger issue is what happens when ocean acidification saturates....

And no we're not. Adaptable. 90% of our adaption since we started out has been the increased use of energy per head. We are actually stupid enough to have though we could reduce the atmospheric C02 content, by surcharging the problem activity. Even stupider, we assumed the impacting process could/should continue to grow indefinitely. That cognitive dissonance

by primaryindustry | 18th Jul 13, 12:40pm 1374108023

Themes appearing in Victoria...

1. Trucking and freight contracts dialing back to 'just-in-time' for small/medium distribution centres and casual employment at all levels of staff... tonnage levels 70% of previous financial period common for operators.

2. Melbourne rental market now a renters market by far i.e have your choice between up to 5 suitable dwellings, typically for less than the listed pw. Compared to 2 years ago... competing with at least a doz other applicants and having to offer more than the listed pw to secure something 'livable'.

3. Job market always competitive, no change there.

Regards