A drop in support of the ruling National Party to its lowest level since October last year has seen a potential Labour/Greens alliance move ahead in public opinion for the first time since January.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll, taking the views of New Zealanders both by landline and mobile telephone between March 17 and 30, shows a dip in National's support to 43% from 45.5% in the previous poll.
However, the latest poll is not really much more encouraging for National's main rivals, who collectively also lost ground.
The Labour Party edged up slightly, to 32% from 31.5%, while the Green Party actually fell to 13% from 14%.
As of now that would give the potential partners 45% support at the polls.
Potential kingmaker Winston Peters had a good poll, with support for his NZ First Party up to 5.5% from 3.5%.
Colin Craig's Conservative Party - a potential National coalition partner - had its best showing since January, rising to 2.5% from 1.5%.
Elsewhere the Maori Party was 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ was 0.5%, unchanged and United Future 0.5% also unchanged.
The Mana Party was on 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Internet Party (0.5%, up 0.5%) while support for Others is 0.5% (down 0.5%).
Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan said it "appears" the "scandal" around Justice Minister Judith Collins was continuing to dent support for National – now down 5.5% over the past month.
"However, today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll also shows a clear split in support between the major parties which means minor parties are likely to play a big role in determining who forms Government in September.
"This could well include the new Internet Party, which launched its election campaign last week.
"The much discussed Internet Party, founded by entrepreneur Kim Dotcom, has already had discussions with Hone Harawira’s Mana Party about combining their party lists in an attempt to get extra MPs into Parliament. In addition, Internet Party leader Dotcom has also claimed to have convinced a sitting MP to join his fledgling party which is not yet officially registered."
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