DigiPoll shows National and John Key down sharply, but still well ahead of Labour, which also fell; Key's word questioned over Slater's OIA to SIS

By Bernard Hickey

With four weeks to go until the September 20 election, here's my daily round-up of political news on Friday August 21, including a fresh poll showing how the 'Dirty Politics' saga has affected the Government's popularity and the latest on whether or not Prime Minister John Key personally knew anything about the now infamously-expedited OIA response to Cameron Slater from the SIS.

The first full opinion poll done since the publication on the evening of August 13 of Nicky Hager's book shows the personal popularity of Key and National has fallen, but remains far ahead Labour andDavid Cunliffe respectively.

The New Zealand Herald's DigiPoll of 750 voters from August 14 to 20 found support for National fell 4.9% to 50% from a month ago, while support for Labour fell 1.3% to 25.3%. The biggest winner was the GreenParty. Its support rose 3.8% to 13.7%, while New Zealand First fell 0.3% to 4.3%.

Conservative more than doubled to 2.6% from 1.2%, Internet-Mana fell to 2.1% from 2.2% and Maori, ACT and United Future were all solidly below 1%. The poll found 12.5% undecided.

The poll found 64.8% saw John Key as preferred Prime Minister, down 8.5% from a month ago, while David Cunliffe rose 4.1% to 14.6%. This Hubbard cartoon in the Dominion Post captured the mood over the damage to 'Brand Key' from his association with Judith Collins andCameron Slater.

Other more market-based measures of the Government's support also show it has fallen in the last week.

The contract on iPredict for whether there will be a National Prime Minister after the election has fallen to a 63% chance from an 82% chance last Wednesday.

Shares in Meridian, Genesis and Mighty River Power , which are seen as a proxy for whether a Labour/Green/NZ First Government would elected and introduce New Zealand Power, have fallen 2%, 4% and 1% respectively since last week, despite a 1.5% rise in the NZX 50 and very strong profit and dividend results from Meridian and Mighty River Power.

Key's word challenged

Key's reputation was challenged directly yesterday when letters fromWarren Tucker and Beverley Wakem to NewstalkZB's Felix Marwick were published saying Tucker had spoken to "the Prime Minister" over the now infamously-expedited OIA response to Cameron Slater. This conflicted with Key's previous assurances that he personally had nothing to do with arranging or expediting the OIA response.

Phil Goff accused Key of lying and called for his resignation. Cunliffe said Key's assurance was simply not credible as SIS briefings had always been directly to the Prime Minister in the past.

After a morning of confusion, both Tucker and Wakem took the unusual steps of issuing statements backing the Prime Minister, saying Tucker had only briefed the office of the Prime Minister rather than the Prime Minister himself.

Key repeated that he was not personally briefed, saying he was on holiday at the time in Hawaii. He even joked about it. (See quote of the day below.)

The issue may not be dead yet though, as Adam Bennett at the NZ Herald reported from an August 2011 news conference where Key said this: "What happened is Warren Tucker didn't come to me, he went to his legal adviser and his legal advisers told him this is the process they have to follow and when he was going through that process it was at that point he told me he'd release it because he has to tell me that under the no-surprises doctrine."

Key again refused on the campaign trail to say if he would ask who in his office who worked with Slater on drafting the OIA request or who signed off on the expedited OIA response. This connection between Key's office and Slater is the central claim in Hager's book. The man at the centre of the storm, now National Party staffer Jason Ede , has yet to comment.

'Sack Collins'

Thursday morning's direct challenge to the Prime Minister's word is an indicator of how his refusal to remove Judith Collins has put the smell of blood in the water. The Otago Daily Times called on Key to sack Collins or at least dump her from cabinet after the election.

Key himself tried to turn the discussion around to attack on the hacker behind the theft of Cameron Slater's emails and facebook traffic.

"There's a real risk that a hacker and the left wing are trying to take an election off New Zealanders," he said. Key repeated the focus on 'Dirty Politics' was turning voters off and could lower the turnout.

More Whaledumps

Meanwhile, 'Whaledump' released another patch of documents aroundmidnight and the drama is set to continue while Key refuses to sack Collins and refuses to say who in his office coached and expedited Slater's OIA request. Also, the Parliamentary Service confirmed to Metiria Turei it was looking into matters raised in the book.

Key's demeanour on the campaign trail is starting to become more frustrated. He was reported by Fairfax to have half jokingly told a Radio NZ reporter as he was getting into his car: "Get out of my way scummy media or I might shove you."

Labour's Otago policy

David Cunliffe announced in Dunedin that a Labour Government would re-open and upgrade the Hillside railway workshops and keep the Invermay research centre open. Labour's policy for Dunedin and Otagopromised to create 3,000 more jobs within its first term.

Steven Joyce said the 3,000 extra jobs would represent a slow-down, given 23,000 extra jobs had been created in the region in the last five years.

The NZEI announced 93% of teachers and principals in the union had voted they had no confidence in the Government's ' Investing in Educational Success ' policy and 73% voted to reject the policy outright, rather than just try to renegotiate it.

Hekia Parata announced agreements over the plan with secondary school principals and school trustees. They had agreed to MOUs to alter the collective agreements of principals.

I'll update this regularly through the day.

See all my previous election diaries here.

See the index for Interest.co.nz's special election policy comparison pages here.