Migration adds another 45,414 people to New Zealand's population in year to September but three banks think it will go higher

Most moving to Auckland and all looking for a place to live.  Interest rates lower for longer, nothing being built in the special housing areas, Chinese opening official channels for FDI in NZ, subsidies for FHB, increasing equity in existing homes, domestic migration to Auckland and spring just around the corner. 

Is there anyone left who thinks Auckland prices are going to drop?

It is just bonkers, anyone not needing to buy in Auckland now or in the near future should be feeling a bit relieved. Those with multiple rentals there will be cackling and rubbing their hands together excitedly.

Yes... it's a great time to be a landlord. 

There are two sides to the NZ housing market - demand & supply.

On the demand side the Government needs to manage the net rolling 12 month migration rate to what NZ can handle both in terms of land supply for housing and availaibility of labour to build the housing.

The Government has the ability to adjust the number of points needed to permanently enter NZ &/or quota the numbers entering when net inbound demand is excessive.  This could even be managed by the RBNZ as a macroprudential tool.

There are two sides to the NZ housing market - demand & supply.

On the demand side the Government needs to manage the net rolling 12 month migration rate to what NZ can handle both in terms of land supply for housing and availaibility of labour to build the housing.

The Government has the ability to adjust the number of points needed to permanently enter NZ &/or quota the numbers entering when net inbound demand is excessive.  This could even be managed by the RBNZ as a macroprudential tool.

Interesting comments on Public Address showing the hypocrisy of the left

"The Chinese presence in Hong Kong has diluted our local culture. My office was in Tsimshatsui, a shopping district popular among rich Chinese tourists. Everyday, I heard more Mandarin (the official dialect of China) than Cantonese (the mother tongue of most Hongkongers). Small local restaurants, shops and even McDonald’s have been replaced by jewellery stores, pharmacies and cosmetic stores because many Chinese don’t trust merchants or manufacturers in China. They stock up on supplies when they visit our city. Hong Kong parents even have a hard time finding baby formula sometimes.



Many merchants now cater to only Chinese tourists, incorporating or even replacing traditional Chinese (the writing system used in Hong Kong) with simplified Chinese (used in China). Some schools have adopted Mandarin as their teaching medium.



Hongkongers are ethnically Chinese. Our nationality is also technically Chinese now, but we feel very strongly that our culture and customs are vastly different from that of the Chinese. Hongkongers often correct foreigners when we are called “Chinese”. The British governed us for more than a century under the rule of law. We had an uncorrupted government. We enjoyed liberty and the freedom of speech, press, and assembly. But all these have been fading away since the handover because our current government officials and lawmakers are not elected by popular votes. They are not accountable to us, but to Chinese interests."

To which a commeter asks:

    Joshua Grainger, 6 days ago



    You say that because of the influx of mainlanders and thus the dilution of the Hong Konger identity that many Hong Kongers are moving overseas. Surely that’s a little bit hypocritical: aren’t Hong Kongers moving, to say, Auckalnd, the same as mainlanders moving to Hong Kong? The concern about the shops of the old Hong Kong disappearing in favour of those that appeal to mainlanders seems to be reminiscent of Winston Peters old concern about corner stores disappearing and being replaced with Cantonese restaurants, TCM providers, and Asian supermarkets.

To which the one eyed Russell Brown Replies:

Let me answer this: no. The Chinese government doesn’t run New Zealand let alone tear-gas Aucklanders in the street, the language (written and spoken) is in no danger of disappearing, retail still serves the needs of residents, the scale of migration and tourism is in no way comparable. It’s just not a comparison.

http://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-foreign-forces-hope-and-hong-kongs/#replies

The problem is that the oppostion is crooked (phoney/false).

 

Perhaps 10% gain for each of the next three years in Auckland or is that a tad too conservative given massive net migration inflows for years ahead, low interest rates and failure of the special housing accord to supply enough new homes?

This party cannot go on forever.

We need a breather from the open door immigration policy  while we get our house(s) in order . 

So migration is up - so what.

House prices in Auckland are not currently rising. The numbers don't lie.

People need to stick to the facts and not be persuaded by those with vested interests.

The heading says "....but three banks think it will go higher". Banks will say whatever they can to talk dummies into borrowing more money.

Word, there's an oversupply of landlords

Here's NZ First's take;

The National government is using uncontrolled migration as a crude device to drive down wages and lower living standards, says New Zealand First.

"Minister of Immigration Michael Woodhouse quibbled over terminology, and refused to adequately answer questions on numbers in Parliament today," says New Zealand First Member of Parliament Ron Mark.

"It was a poor show and reinforces our belief that National is content with a record level of migration.

"How is Auckland supposed to plan given a significant number of the people who come to New Zealand will settle in our biggest city?

"With net migration at the highest ever figure of 45,400, the government should be building thousands of houses a year just for new New Zealanders, but in fact, they have only built five houses for everyone.

"An urgent debate is needed on how many people New Zealand needs - we must ensure there are benefits for our country and not adverse effects. We must have a plan.

"Just last month the British Labour Party admitted that open-door immigration in the UK had undercut workers’ wages and lowered living standards.

"The party also admitted it had covered up a string of damaging reports about the impact of mass immigration," says Mr Mark.

"Uncontrolled migration is forcing Kiwis into queues for hospital beds, housing and jobs. It’s unfair on New Zealanders."

Ron Mark is dead right here. I am visiting horrid Auckland at present and am shocked at the sheer number of Asian folk, many old and frail, obviously recently domicile in this city - now before all poofty modern readers scream "racist" - not so; my objection is purely pragmatic and I am sure the migrants are mostly very nice people. Even better in their own land. This place (NZ) just cannot cope (neither socially nor necessities)  with such an influx. Two stupid things lazy western governments have done post WW2, as an easy quest for "growth": debase the currency and allow such immigation. I don't see reciprocal arrangements in the latter case being offered to us in the East (not that I'd be a starter).

Ergophobia 

Very simply, the immigration problem, and it is a problem was covered up for years while we were bleeding NZ born citizens to Australia mainly. Now that tap has turned down but not off completely we suffer the burden of too many immigrants than we can easily absorb.

That is readily seen in Auckland because immigrants are now mainly staying in Auckland. To give it an ethnic (note not racist) twist, whereas in the past the European arrivals distributed themselves across the country, the mainly Asian groups do not move nearly as readily.

What governments of both hues do not see is that immigration needs to be controlled for the good of those already here and not for their own selfish economic urges.

Auckland is not the worse for immigrants but it is the worse for too many, too quickly and needs relief to catch up. If that means stopping the flow altogether for an extended period, sobeit.