Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we are likely to see a boost in tourist visitor numbers from China in October.
But first, American consumer spending grew briskly in August (Table 10) and the Fed's favoured measure of inflation (PCE) crept up, signs of strength in America's domestic economy that could lead them to tighten interest rates despite weakness abroad.
That 'weakess abroad' includes softening profitability of major Chinese manufacturers. They are still quite profitable, but are facing costs that keep rising and product prices that keep falling, and the decline was at the sharpest rate in four years, down -8.8% of the same month a year ago. But the drops were concentrated in only 10 of the 41 sectors surveyed; the rest showed improvements.
Coming up next week is China's 'Golden Week' holidays and despite their lower currency and some local economic questions, reports are showing that locals are still spending freely and bookings for international holidays are at record levels. Expect a flood of Chinese tourists here over the next two weeks.
In Switzerland, their competition regulator has opened an investigation into possible collusion in the precious metals market by several major banks, the latest in a string of manipulation probes. Targeted banks include HSBC, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley and three others.
In Europe, other manufacturers are owning up to installing diesel 'cheat' software. Now Audi and Skoda add another 3.3 mln cars to VW's 11 mln. Silence (or denial) from these brands in New Zealand is not acceptable.
And in Sydney, we are hearing that Baycorp has been sold by its private equity shareholder to large American investor Encore.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark has started the week lower, now down to 2.13%.
However, the US benchmark oil price is unchanged at US$45/barrel, Brent is at US$48/barrel.
But the gold price is lower too, at US$1,133/oz.
However, the New Zealand dollar starts today holding on to most of yesterday's gains. The NZD is now at 63.5 US¢, at 90.6 AU¢, and 56.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 68.2.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes overnight, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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25 Comments
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/88844/20150928/giant-cold-water-blob-…
The planet is changing...
Costs will be astronomic... UK / East Coast USA like Canada in Winter.
No one talks about it...
People willing to kill their kids for money:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11…
Sad....
A 500 year flood every 25years? yes you bet it looks expensive,
"For the first time, climate researchers compared both sea-level rise rates and storm surge heights in prehistoric and modern eras and found that the combined increases of each have raised the likelihood of a devastating 500-year flood occurring as often as every 25 years.
“A storm that occurred once in seven generations is now occurring twice in a generation,” said Benjamin Horton, a Rutgers marine and coastal sciences professor. "
The study, “Increased Threat of Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Flooding During the Anthropogenic Era,”
In Europe, other manufacturers are owning up to installing diesel 'cheat' software. Now Audi and Skoda add another 3.3 mln cars to VW's 11 mln. Silence (or denial) from these brands in New Zealand is not acceptable.
Volkswagen Group sells passenger cars under the Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen marques; motorcycles under the Ducati brand; and commercial vehicles under the MAN, Scania, Neoplan and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles marques. Read more
Audi, VW, SEAT and Skoda share a floor pan, if I remember correctly. Disclosure, I buy Japanese and bought a Ducati back in 1996 when the company was owned by the founders.
I do have some sympathy for VW et al on emissions. The pressure to be clean and green brought on by pressure groups such as Greenpeace based on fraudlent computer models have put innovative companies in a corner where the technology is still 5-20 years away. This crusade against CO2 is taking the emphasis off real innovation and finding ways of cheating instead to bridge this gap. If Greenpeace were around 20000 years ago we will still all be living in caves as any innovation causes environmental impacts. Take the wheel as an example, this meant you could travel further and process raw materials more easily. Greenpeace are against this.
So this whole thing is Greenpeace fault? How about just being truthful and actually putting the environment (people) before profits? As this story unfolds it appears this "cheating" device has been installed for the last 8 years...and installed in many models not just VW. Was any research done in this time or did they just design better cheating software, hang on no its all Green peace fault!!
What planet do you live on for the above comment?
This reinforces my view of the current world that allegiances are not to one's nation, other people, the planet, or any other human interest. It's to greed, money, the corporation, the personal interest/obsession...
This is not worth replying to.
This is what you sound like to normal people:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iBLlksqztg
Do you have some links to back up your assertions, because I am not so sure. Emissions are a big part of what I do, my technology is the cleanest combustion system ever, and I think you will find it arose from the healthcare profession with their psuedo science of epidemiology.
The VW scandal is not about CO2 bro - are you part of the spin by VW ?
Its about the mono-nitrogen oxides NO and NO₂. Don't start feeling sorry for these bastardos. Their efforts will have led to the death of thousands all round the world. People need to go to jail for lengthy periods.
"It means far more harmful NOx emissions, including nitrogen dioxide, have been pumped into the air than was thought – on one analysis, between 250,000 to 1m extra tonnes every year. The hidden damage from these VW vehicles could equate to all of the UK’s NOx emissions from all power stations, vehicles, industry and agriculture."
"The fumes can cause inflammation of the airways and worsen breathing for anyone. But NOx emissions can also react with other compounds to cause more serious respiratory conditions and aggravate heart problems. Long-term exposure to the pollution hastens death: research this year linked high levels of NOx to 9,500 premature deaths annually in London alone."
http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/sep/23/volkswag…
At what point will someone step up and say these cars need to be off NZ roads? VW NZ are you out there somewhere hiding?
Well it is a bit about CO2, as the computer(in normal use) resets the engine management system to increase power, reduce fuel consumption at the expense of massively increased nitrous oxide emissions.By running a leaner mixture.
So if the system is reset for less nitrous emissions(to pass the test) the car will burn more diesel and emit more CO2.
As these engines are not technologically advanced enough to satisfty the dual requirements of low CO2 and nitrous oxide emissions simultaneously.
It is appalling that in NZ it is OK to have every ancient Jap import 4wd on the planet chundering out filth in dense urban areas, no old Jap diesels were any good new and will be terrible with age
and the management of noxious gases, a core technology you'd think they would be across
It is reported that emissions from diesel vehicles are significantly more harmful than those from petrol ones.[3] Diesel exhaust contains toxic air contaminants and is listed as carcinogen for humans by the IARC (part of the World Health Organization of the United Nations) in group 1.[4] Diesel exhaust contains fine particles which are harmful. Diesel exhaust pollution was thought to account for around one quarter of the pollution in the air in previous decades, and a high share of sickness caused by automotive pollution.[5]
Diesel exhaust has been known for its characteristic smell, which largely disappears when the sulfur content of diesel fuel is reduced.
The lean-burning nature of diesel engines and the high temperatures and pressures of the combustion process result in significant production of nitrogen oxides, and provide a unique challenge in reducing these compounds. Modern on-road diesel engines typically use selective non-catalytic reduction to meet emissions laws, as other methods such as exhaust gas recirculation cannot adequately reduce NOx to meet newer standards in many jurisdictions. However, the fine particulate matter in the exhaust fumes (sometimes visible as opaque dark-colored smoke) has traditionally been of greater concern, as it presents different health concerns and is rarely produced in significant quantities by spark-ignition engines. It is reported in 2012 that although total nitrogen oxides from petrol cars have decreased by around 96% through adoption of exhaust catalyst, diesel cars still produce nitrogen oxides at a similar level to those bought a decade and a half ago under real world tests, resulting in diesel cars emit around 20 times more nitrogen oxides than petrol cars.[6][7]
Diesel engines produce very little carbon monoxide as they burn the fuel in excess air even at full load,[8] at which point the quantity of fuel injected per cycle is still about 50 percent less than the stoichiometric requirement[citation needed].
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust
puts a spanner in the works diesel being a modern world answer v v battery/hydrogen cell/bioF.
eg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYYR_wG-x_E
and
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzz4CoEgSgWNs9ZAvRMhW2A
Smalltown - it is all about CO2 bro. The Greens want to reduce CO2 emissions and as a result places like London now has NOx levels on a par with Beijing. Reducing CO2 benefits no one but increasing NOx harms everyone. The one who need to "go to jail" are the fools that make rules that pollute today, such as favouring diesel cars, so they can reduce CO2 emissions and feel good about themselves "fighting" some perceived problem 100 years from now.
"Clean Air in London’s (CAL’s) analysis of the latest data confirms that London had the highest levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a toxic gas, of any capital city in Europe in 2010. Concentrations of dangerous airborne particles (PM10) are much higher in Beijing than London but levels of NO2 are comparable in the two cities."
http://cleanair.london/sources/guide-to-sources-london-has-the-highest-…
"Diesel cars’ efficiency comes from burning their fuel at a higher temperature, and that means they turn more of the nitrogen in the air they use for burning into various oxides of nitrogen, collectively known as NOx. This does not have global climate effects on the same scale as those of carbon dioxide, which is the most important long-lived greenhouse gas. But it has far worse local effects, generating smogs and damaging plants and lungs."
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21667918-systematic-fraud-worlds…
a) the climate models are not fraudulent, or if you can prove it, well sue.
b) California emissions regulations and indeed others was brought in to reduce pollution and its effects on health, and not CO2. Car makers could and mostly have complied, thus pushing/forcing innovation and development..
c) No Greenpeace are not against the wheel what utter rubbish. Some greens, are in fact pro-nuclear power...lets see,
One for nuclear,
Patrick Moore (an early member of Greenpeace) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/14/AR20060…
Lots more such as myself are pro-wind, pro-hydro, pro-solar, pro-geothermal, hardly against the wheel then.
Quoting Patrick Moore does not strengthen your argument.
he saw the light and now hates Greenpeace with a passion.
He also believes Agw is a scam..The climate models may not be fraudulent..just wrong,which is highly embarrassing as CC advocates are finding people are switching off Agw.
Agree on nuclear however.
The models are actually proving accurate enough. ppl Off AGW? no I dont think, so signs are far more positive every day.
--edit--
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/politics/most-americans-support-go…
Yes there seem to be a few who consider Nuclear less of an evil than fossil fuels. Its going to come down to horse trading anyway, we'll have less energy so the Q will be how is it used. That determination seems to be those with money will get the most, dont see that as panning out to well myself.
why are you fighting battles that have been raging for 15 years without progressing
same battles, same arguments, same people, quoting others, never getting anywhere
I'm more interested in what's going on closer to home
The following link was posted here by Iconoclast back in 2013 - I remembered it
about Mururoa, Nuclear, Rainbow Warrior, Maralinga, Woomera, Tasman Glacier - all there
http://www.members.optusnet.com.au/~iconoklast/bushfires.htm
But you keeping tossing around London, Beijing, Europe, California
Any Fed rate increase this year depends HEAVILY on no more nasty surprises coming out of China. If more bad news is to come to light, it will be a resumption of capital flight, a further leg up of USD, China having revisit a either dumping more treasuries or devaluing once again. The US has already had a dose of inflation control (ever decreasing import costs) and wage gains (higher import purchasing power) all through USD appreciation. The US domestic economy will require some significant grunt to supersede China's issues and warrant a lifting of their base rate on top of what has already occurred via currency appreciation.
The U.S. corporate-bond market is starting to flash caution signals about the broader economy.
The difference in yield, called the “spread,” between bonds from America’s strongest companies and ultrasafe U.S. Treasury securities has been steadily increasing, a trend that in the past has foreshadowed economic problems. Read more
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