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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; big dairy lender goes bearish, commercial building activity jumps, optimists in Australia, NZD slips

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; big dairy lender goes bearish, commercial building activity jumps, optimists in Australia, NZD slips
5th Feb 16, 4:00pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes today for TDs either.

DAIRY GLOOM
Today's cut-down view by ANZ of what Fonterra will payout to its farmers for milk will be tough to swallow for most. At the same time, Fonterra are offering premiums for organic supply. Such price signals could move farmer behaviour quite quickly. USDA price monitoring shows no change, but derivatives indicate further falls.

BUILDING BOOM
Commercial building consents surged to an all time high of $5.9 bln in 2015 with Auckland and Canterbury neck and neck. But Auckland is just getting started with some very large projects ready to get underway.

FASTER GROWTH, FEWER JOBLESS
The RBA issued an upbeat Statement on Monetary Policy today. It sees Aussie growth rising from 2-3% this year to 3-4% in 2018. This is despite the China risks which they acknowledge. They are optimists.

RETAILING STRONG IN AUSSIE
Aussie retailing rose +4.7% pa in December. Food retailing, along with restaurants and bars, were the laggards, Household goods, clothing, and department stores led the way. Today's data kind of supports the RBA view.

BIG DATA
All eyes tomorrow morning will be on the US non-farm payrolls report. A lot is riding on it.

WHOLESALE RATES UNCHANGED
Swap rates have been largely unchanged today but a hint of softness has crept in late in the day, accentuating the recent flattening. However the 90 day bank bill rate rose +2 bps to 2.67%.

NZ DOLLAR UP
The Kiwi dollar has held above 67 USc until the last hour when it has slipped below. It is now at 66.9 USc (that is, the USD has stayed down), at 93.2 AUc, and at 59.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 71.5. Check our real-time charts here.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: CoinDesk

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2 Comments

by  Man in the Street  |  5th Feb 16, 4:34pm 1454643297

RBNZ now seen to be discarding farmers in favour of tens of thousands of Indian students whose interest in some of our so-called education providers is dubious to say the least; how much money is each student bringing? Each time RBNZ opens its mouth the currency speculators make a killing and the farmers ( and rural economies ) suffer.

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by  Stephen Hulme  |  5th Feb 16, 5:21pm 1454646105

All eyes tomorrow morning will be on the US non-farm payrolls report. A lot is riding on it.

I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

With the BLS’s release of Q4 productivity figures, we get to check the BLS’s estimates just in time for tomorrow’s increasingly irrelevant payroll report. That much has become thoroughly apparent especially since the middle of last year as the Establishment Survey and unemployment rate only diverge with the overall breadth of economic indications. With GDP no longer corroborative, the labor reports have been in a world all their own. Read more

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