US durable goods orders fall; tax leak catches 100s; IMF warns on China; IMF forced to back down on Greece; UST 10yr yield 1.77%; oil and oil lower; NZ$1 = 68.4 US¢, TWI-5 = 71.5

Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the IMF has branded China the main risk to global financial stability.

But first, in the US new orders for durable goods fell in February, and business spending on capital goods was much weaker than initially thought. Those durable goods orders fell -1.7% as demand fell broadly, reversing January’s downwardly revised +1.2% increase. Orders have declined in 14 of the last 19 months. The report added to weak consumer spending and trade data and indicated American economic growth slowed further from the +1.4% pace in Q4-2015. Estimates for first-quarter 2016 GDP growth are currently below a +1% rate.

Yesterday's exposure of details of how some rich and famous avoid paying taxes and launder money gathered steam with startling revelations about Vladimir Putin. Also exposed in the leak include the prime ministers of Iceland and Pakistan, an alleged bagman for Syrian President Bashar Assad, a close friend of the Mexican President and companies linked to the family of Chinese President Xi. Add to those the monarchs of Saudi Arabia and Morocco; Middle Eastern royalty; leaders of FIFA, and 29 of the 500 billionaires included in Forbes Magazine's rich list. Add to that 61 relatives and associates of current country leaders, and 128 current or former politicians and public officials. No revelations of New Zealanders - yet.

China is the principal risk to global financial stability, according to the IMF, which says any shock to China's reported growth will have a big impact on world equity prices. In its latest Global Financial Stability Report they say the risks of financial contagion from China are still relatively low, but its economic news will have a growing influence on global equities.

And yesterday's leak of IMF-German tensions over Greece has forced the head of the IMF to brand the possibility 'nonsense', leaving the IMF trapped at the table. And the Greeks are now confident this latest review will be wrapped up in about 2 weeks.

In New York the benchmark UST 10yr yield is unchanged from Friday at 1.77% but is falling after a brief rally. At home, wholesale swap rates have sunk to new historic lows while at the same time risk premiums continued their slide. The combination opens up more of a chance mortgage rates will keep dropping - and savers will feel even more interest rate pressure.

And not only are CDS spreads for local investment grade corporate debt falling, they are for our sovereign debt as well. Markets actually rate New Zealand Government debt with less of a risk premium than for Australia, a benefit that has been in place since mid 2014.

The oil price is sliding too and is now well under US$36/barrel in the US, while Brent is well under US$38/barrel.

The gold price is down too, now at US$1,219/oz.

And the NZ dollar will start today lower at 68.4 US¢, at 89.8 AU¢, and at 60 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is at 71.5 and still within this remarkably tight range we have seen all year.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».