Newshub poll shows big jump for Labour and Ardern at expense of Greens, National and New Zealand First; Winston Peters still Kingmaker

By Alex Tarrant

The Jacinda Ardern effect appears to have shown through in the latest election poll, with Labour taking a big jump at the expense of the Green Party, New Zealand First, and potentially National. Winston Peters' New Zealand First kept the 'balance of power' position.

Wednesday's Newshub-Reid Research poll showed Labour up nine points to 33.1%. Ardern's preferred Prime Minister rating was up nearly 18 points to 26.3%. The poll 1,000 - 750 phone and 250 online - has a margin of error of about 3%.

In contrast, National was down slightly to 44.4%, its lowest in this poll in 10 years. Bill English's preferred PM ranking was up nearly two points to 27.7%.

New Zealand First would be the third biggest party in Parliament, overtaking the Greens, on this poll. This came as the Winston Peters-led party's support did not drop as much as the Greens'. NZF polled down 3.8 points at 9.2%; The Greens down 4.7 points at 8.3%.

Of the minor parties, Gareth Morgan's TOP remained steady at 2%. The Maori Party were up slightly at 1.5% which would allow them a list MP in Parliament if Te Ururoa Flavell holds his current seat, as they have currently. ACT was on 0.6% and UnitedFuture 0.1% - both are expected to get back into Parliament due to electorate seat deals with National.

The poll would give National and current support partners ACT, UF and Maori 59 seats in a 121-seat Parliament, and the Labour-Greens block 51 seats. Support from NZF would allow both to get over the line.

Labour last week installed Jacinda Ardern as leader after a series of polls in the 23%-24% range the week before (including a Newshub poll) led Andrew Little to discuss with front-benchers whether he should resign or not. That morphed into party whip Kris Faafoi 'running the numbers' and Little by Tuesday morning last week was reported to be facing a vote of no confidence in Labour's caucus meeting if he did not stand down. He moved aside and Ardern was effortlessly installed with Kelvin Davis as deputy.

Prime Minister Bill English has remained under the kosh over the Barclay Affair, with Winston Peters trying to apply the pressure on what English knew, and when, regarding a confidential employment settlement between Parliamentary Services and Clutha-Southland constituency office manager Glenys Dickson last year.

The Green Party all that while was being dogged by Metiria Turei's admission that she committed welfare fraud in her 20s. Turei resigned from her co-leadership decision just before the poll was released on Wednesday evening.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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150 Comments

NO WAY! National all the way!

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I totally agree. Having acquiesced in this ridiculous credit bubble, the national party should be forced to serve another term so they can clean up the mess. Absolutely. This would be a good election to lose.

That's what the US Democrats said when Dubya was appointed by the Supreme Court over Gore. Look how that worked out.

@Bobster , So R U blaming National for the GFC, or are you annoyed that they embarked on stimulatory spending to reduce the effects of the GFC ?

National have for purely political reasons acquiesced in this ridiculous credit bubble, basking in the political glory of rising house prices. They have shown no leadership whatsoever on the issue as the economy became a gross leverage play. I appreciate RB runs macro pru reg, but I get the feeling govt support for that reg is like getting blood out of a stone. I don't think they really wanted things to get where the are now, but they totally lost control. We are now the world's poster child for real etstate bubbles. If you don't like the word "bubble", lets use the polite code word of "unaffordabilty". Apparently the gross distortion of house prices by ever higher leverage is a "sign of our success". Err, no it isn't, it is a sign of policy failure. So yeah, the next few years, they should own that.

The private sector side of the economy has become a leveraged play on interest rates, thats fine if you are a hedge fund, if you are a country.....mmm not so much. With 25 year money at 160% of household income there is a decent chunk of that money which cannot and will not be repaid.

Predictably - Ardern is enjoying her honeymoon ( which will be short .. ) and still fails to take any votes off the Nats. TOP get no traction ..

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Hopelessly devoted to blue?

The leader debates will be the main event for swing voters in this election, I suspect. But Labour have definitely got more momentum on. To be expected.

"Hopelessly devoted to blue?" - where do you get this from ? what I wrote simply stated the facts as they are today .. sorry it bothers you so much.

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Your statement/certainty that the honeymoon "will be short" - that's a prediction, not a fact. Not bothered at all - actually I was thinking of your comment in the affectionate kind of way as a play on the Grease song ... one of my favourites. Didn't mean to offend - if I did, sorry.

Actually the lyrics to a Mariah Carey song come to my mind; "and then a hero came along...." A lot of disgruntled middle class Kiwis have been hoping for someone inspirational that they can relate to and for many of us Ardern represents that hope. I think also a number of young people will vote for her as they will like her whereas they see nothing of themselves in Bill English and his gang of rich white people. This could be a very close election as I feel Ardern will start taking some votes from National (particularly women)

Actually Kate, looking at other utterances from this identity, something by Syd Vicious might have been more fitting.

Opinion yes, facts no.

If the leadership debates were to include Winston and Jacinda, Bill might struggle to compete.

If the leadership debates were to include any questions on young Toddy, Bill might struggle to say anything (based on his "I am not responsible...." comments in the house)

Maybe not ....if it's true Hosking will be running them? Is see a fb petition asking for his removal. I'd prefer to see John Campbell myself.

True, seems an odd choice...ultimate pitcher of softball questions to Key, last time around.

In my little epistemic bubble, there are quite a few people talking about voting TOP. I wonder about systemic sampling error, who has a landline or a published phone number these days? Maybe some of the sampling is done on the street, but that's a biased sample too.

or it could just be your particular bubble ...

Seems to be a decent sized bubble then.

National down 0.8%.

.. in a poll with a 3% margin of error.

does that mean every number is +/- 3% ? So the nats could be 3% less and labour 3% more.... this is going to be fun !!

May be it is begining of end for national as going towards polling date.

or maybe you are day dreaming..

what a friggen circus we need boring Bill TO SELL THE SUCCESSES.
Dam the greens hopefully in the next poll the wont even appear

Every time I see Winston interviewed I have to throw stuff at the telly. Such a difficult man. But you gotta admire that difficult man. Should have had a knighthood for bringing the winebox (being difficult) Trouble is there is really no party. It's just Winston.

Hahaha entirely predictable. Greens and NZF lost 8.5% from last poll. No real gains at all on National. Give it a couple of weeks and it'll start to decline once more 'lets tax our way to prosperity' wears thin.

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interesting other survey had over 50% want a change of government, looks like change is in the air and this do nothing government has run out of time

Very much doubt Winston will go with the Greens. Unless he can be PM there is little chance. No real change in polls as far as result overall.

Patrick Gower was disgracefully pushing his own favourite Party tonight. Not once did he mention where Labour's % points came from. Poor journalism.

The Greens are finished with this election, likely closer to 5% than 8%, and little influence, the MOU is not relevant now. Winston's choice is Labour (without the Greens wagging the dog) or National. The unknown is TOP. The most likely outcome now is Jacinda/Winston as PM/Deputy.

[ Edited. This is the wrong place to engage in repetitive superficial sloganeering. Ed]

How? The overall result was unchanged.

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Well that's sealed it after today's news, labour, nz first and the greens will definitely get in

There's more chance Trump will join in coalition with Kim Il Sung than Winston going with the Greens.

Go Winstone, and get rid of these immigration junkies National. Time to go cold turkey, and Im not talking Bill.

I thought Paddy Gower was going to have an orgasm on live tv.
These guys ,instead of reporting the news now have become the news.

100% agree poor professionalism on his behalf.

The poll has a margin of error of over 3%. Yet they say that this is the lowest polling national has had for a long time as it is just under 45%. But potentially it could be 3% higher in reality.

Really the poll shows that the deck chairs on the left have just been shifted around.

Or 3% lower

I do wish he would polish his shoes! LOL.

Whats stopping nzf going with the Nats.

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Immigration.

9 Years of not caring about NZers. Winstone says NZ first, so Im expecting Labour. National is anyone but NZers.

I agree

the Nats have been pretty bad for the struggling kiwi, look how many kiwis are living in cars or being put into hotels while unskilled immigrants keep pouring in for slave labour and keeping wages at basement levels. Their priorities are all wrong.

Go on Winston! your turn to have a crack!

I really wouldn't bet on NZ First going against National, remember 1996. I'd bet Winston will go with whoever has most votes out of National and Labour. If he can form a government with just National I bet he'll take that over Greens plus Labour.

Swapacrate I can't agree with you. National do care about NZ'ers.....say what you like but if they hadn't allowed immigration we would be in a terrible position today.

There was never going to be sufficient labour or expertise in NZ for the Canterbury rebuild or the agricultural sectors requirements and other sectors that are generating income and taxes for NZ.......

National may not be perfect but they have dealt with exceptional circumstances in a wide variety of areas and with little support from the opposition benches......yes housing is a mess........but some of that mess was inherited.........look at the finger pointing by opposition parties who have made many yards publicly yet none of those politicians got in behind National and supported RMA changes.....it is politicians who refuse to cross the benches and vote for what it right for NZ'ers that don't care about NZers.

Everytime I hear someone blaming immigration I know that they do not have a clue beyond their nose as to what is happening outside of their fence.

Those RMA changes proposed (i.e., changes to section 5 - purpose and principles) wouldn't have made one iota of difference - and were opposed by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment as well. So, the Nats took a different tack - and made a whole bunch of other changes in the Resource Legilsation Amendment Bill (RLAB). And that (now law) won't make one iota of difference either - in fact it increases unnecessary bureaucracy and complexity (in my opinion) as a result of the "deal" they did with the Maori Party in order to get enough votes in Parliament to pass it.

Here's the explanation on the potential implications of that "deal" as per a K-Swan opinion;

https://www.kensingtonswan.com/Legal-Updates-And-Events/Newsflashes/Mana...

And here's Steven Franks' law firm on the same subject;

http://localgovernmentmag.co.nz/lg-magazine/legal/mana-whakahono-a-rohe/

The big law firms love more bureaucracy and complexity - as indicative in the Kensington-Swan (first link) as RMA legal consultancy work is big, big, big bucks these days! The Act is so complicated, planners need lawyers to help with just about EVERYTHING they do. It is costing LG a packet.

National had nine year to sort out the RMA and they repeatedly made it WORSE. And do you want to know why? Because at every turn they thought they knew better than what the Select Committee submissions were telling them.

Where to start.......

"they do not have a clue beyond their nose" As you say you are not an economist and have no idea, yet are quite content to dis ppl whos economics you disagree with.

RMA changes, that any attempt to change the RMA was seen as deeply un-popular with what looks like most NZers might be a hint as to why the opposition did not support National.

While I'll agree National inherited a mess the very first thing they did when they came to power was giving tax cuts to the well off, a nice fat pork to making a bad housing problem worse just as the Govn's revenue was collapsing. A double bad idea.

There is significant labour in NZ and ppl looking to up skill with incentive but as long as we import cheap skilled labour it makes it much harder for NZers to get ahead.

Agricultural sectors have in-sufficient labour because they pay so badly, allowing cheap labour in to keep that situation going is plain stupid.

The two points above along should be telling you National dont care about many NZers.

Then we can move to look at poverty and lack of support to public services to put icing on the cake.

But no worries looks like National is heading for a 4th term, so the parasites that buy and sell houses to one another can carry on for another 3 years no problems.

Steven I think you are one of these people who looks over the fence thinking the grass is always greener in someone elses yard......How can some exporters and others pay more in wages when they are barely breaking even?

Export products have to compete with other countries exports who have far cheaper overheads and labour than NZ......you got to come and live in NZ due to globalisation opening the borders.......surely you must have understood that gloablisation was removing barriers not only for people but goods and services as well? Surely a ding went off somewhere in your head that wages were going to be affected at some point as goods and services competed in the open market? Surely you realise that some industries are already finding it cheaper to get raw product processed in other countries......how many NZ fishing vessels dump their catch in China for processing, or think the log trade or plethora of other goods.

Low wages are an effect of globalisation..........no business could last more than a day if it overpays their employees yet this is what you are advocating.. I don't need to be an economist to understand basic maths, human behaviour and trade.
Depsite explaining to you on numerous occassions you cannot tax your way to wealth.
Just to prove a point you give me $50 a week and for fun we'll call it NAE Tax...(this tax will pay for me to attend meetings ;-)).........in 3 months time I will be putting my NAE Tax rate up so you will have to pay $60 per week (this is because I now have to pay my secretary a higher wage and perhaps expand my committee)I have the right to change this rate at any time........I'm also going to be adding a water tax in about 1 months time but I have not set the rate for this new tax or decided exactly how it will apply. Good luck with paying me all my taxes I have an endless supply of causes and reasons so you'd better hope that you have deep pockets. I can guarantee that I can place you in poverty by the end of the day!

Poverty comes from taking to much off people not from not giving them enough and at least National recognise this contributing factor hence they do care about NZ'ers.

The opposition benches did not spport any changes to the RMA. It is a big leap to say that most NZers felt the same way. In Auckland there are figures out stating that the RMA is responsible for around 50% of house values there......and the irony is those who claim to want poverty alleviated also want the RMA.

Yes, the RMA wasn't designed to address urban development, that is clear. Academics have been saying it for years. But what did National do - continue to amend it. No amount of amendments are going to cut it. A new Act is needed to address urban planning. The RMA (effects-based legislation) is fine for natural resource management - but ridiculous for urban planning. It just doesn't work, yet National persisted with it nonetheless. All they have done with their suite of amendments is to complicate urban planning by a large, large measure.

It's got nothing to do with the opposition - and everything to do with the executive. They never had a clue. Just look at the Minister involved - totally clueless.

Winston Peters - whilst BE is in charge, that is.

It's evident he's going for another leadership scalp at the moment: Bill's. Question Time is getting interesting. Here's the transcript from today, WP's ? to BE is Number 7. And the important one in among them is (I think) this one:

Rt Hon Winston Peters: Can he confirm that the deployment of ministerial limos for him when in Clutha-Southland in 2015 involved proper ministerial reasons, and not other reasons?

coupled with, this:

Rt Hon Winston Peters: If it is proven that contrary to his denials he had substantial knowledge of the confidential agreement involving Glenys Dickson and was involved in its preparation as to terms and conditions, contrary to what he has been telling the media and Parliament, then, in the event of such proof, what will he do to hold himself accountable?

Tomorrow I suspect we'll find out what the ministerial limo was deployed to do back in 2015.

Bombshell coming....

The anticipation levels are rising

Sometimes Winston has the goods and sometimes he doesn't. Don't get too excited.

Yep, seen that happen before. Interesting to note that Jacinda specifically mentioned that Labour was backing off the Todd Barclay question(s). Thought it very odd of her to even mention it. Wondered if she decided not to tag team - rather to leave Winston with all the glory. :-).

They both know alluding to dirt is more useful here than the actual dirt that remains to be found. Winston will keep teasing while Ardern saying she's not making it an issue gets it in the news and she scores points for being a gentlewomen. It looks kind but it's really a punch to Bill and a self congratulation all rolled into one.

Wonder why Glenys herself doesnt clear things up ? Settlementclause to not say anything???Loyalty to National?

Backlash from the insular community down there, perhaps?

Legal/privacy issues is my guess. Not sure she can just publicly release the texts between she and BE - and BE has stated that he deleted all of them. As an individual, she likely has privacy (and perhaps confidentiality agreement) legal issues.

Winston knows full well ppl have but one place to move to from which ever major party they might have voted for but cant bring themselves to vote across the central reservation. WP intends to be king maker and it every vote counts. I bet he is watching the Greens implode with glee hoping NZF will be the 3rd biggest party again.

The next six weeks will be interesting...National will be concerned with the latest poll. Winston may have his say this time round being potential King Maker. Anything could happen between now and then. However gets in there will be a sticky mess to clean up.

Queenmaker.

Whichever way the Wizened One ends up pointing, there'll be Baubles in the contract.....

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The electorate cannot fail to identify with her because she is showing up and presenting an image that resonates with the ordinary people in the ordinary electorates. Complete opposite to National who have created Corporate New Zealand where big business rules the waves and the ordinary folk, ie taxpayers are treated with as little regard as any minority shareholder in any big corporate. What National, in their arrogance and ignorance have overlooked though is that there are a heck of a lot more ordinary votes out there than big corporates even if the staff of those are counted.

Thing is, the staff of many big corporates are some of the worst paid in NZ. Jacinda presented really well on the Bill that the Nats have introduced to try and counter the women's equal pay precedent set by the courts in this ongoing issue;

https://www.lawsociety.org.nz/practice-resources/practice-areas/employme...

National have not accepted the recommendations of that Joint Working Group (JWG) referred to in the article above - and instead have crafted the current Bill to thwart what the JWG agreed.

Ryman, Metlifecare and Summerset villages are big employers of largely female, low paid workforces. From what I can gather from Jacinda's speech, the Bill would effectively provide for gardeners/lawn mowers as the 'comparable' workforce for this largely female 'eldercare' workforce in respect of the application of the Equal Pay Act under this proposed amendment..

Kate I should have qualified that to mean the executives, top dogs if you like. You know it wasn't so long ago that I worked in an industry where the bosses issued a paper to all levels of staff, specifying they should vote National for the sake of the company and therefore by implication the security of their jobs. Hard to know if this momentum will sustain for Labour but again there is that big element of change being needed, anti the same old establishment and what this new Labour leader has done, more importantly than anything else, is that she has connected with the people, the voters and provided the common denominator. Watch this space. In fact the proximity of the election may well be on her side as shortcomings and foibles will not have that much time to percolate.

it wasn't so long ago that I worked in an industry where the bosses issued a paper to all levels of staff, specifying they should vote National for the sake of the company

Wow, never heard of that happening in NZ - bizarre.

I have been suggested to on voting blue from management, .
by the same token in the old days the unions used to do the same for red
but never anything in writing

I doubt anyone , anywhere would be dumb to put this sort of thing on paper. I think you are making this up. Would have been all over the media anyway.
I challenge you to prove this - should not be difficult ( not long ago , circulated to all levels of staff ).

Muldoon times. For me that is not so long ago but from the sound of it, you were not even born.

I remember in the old days people were very cagey about which way they would vote. Asking them who they were going to vote for was akin to asking them how much they earned. I sometimes think that polls should be banned and asking someone how they are going to vote a social faux pas.

In other words you made it up . And you are wrong about my age BTW.

Then go & revisit your history. Inflation banned, price freezes, wage freezes,car less days, think big & best of all, SMP's. There were huge vested interests for certain industry sectors to retain Muldoon in power, given what Roger Douglas was preaching. There was in fact panic that lucrative subsidies & protectionism would disappear. There were not the the PC protocols in place in the workforce in those days, quite the opposite, and having work was just as important as it is today. Sorry but producing a piece of paper from over 30 years ago is beyond normal filing & hoarding capabilities, you will just have to take my word for it.

I know history as well as you do .
Your statement thought is simply a lie . Your word is worth nothing.

vox nihili

pants on fire..

Talk to the care home administration - times are tough and some are going (have gone) to the wall. I am all in favour of better pay for care givers but it cannot be taken out of the
bottom line of the rest homes because they will simply disappear and then where will our elderly be....

Yes, John, I totally accept what you are saying about our traditional owner/operated rest home/care industry. And one of the big reasons they cannot compete in comparison to the large/multinational corporate counterparts (such a Ryman healthcare) is because of the different tax treatment these retirement corporates take advantage of.

Here is an article on Ryman's 2016 accounts/tax bill;

https://letstalkabouttaxnz.com/2017/04/24/shy-and-retiring/

Also, check out the share movement for all of the companies I mentioned above. Share prices more than doubled over the last 5 years - dividends are great. These are not businesses that are struggling by any measure. They're thriving.

The thing is to compare apples with apples in the same sector so I have some time for National on this. As far as I am concerned Ive seen enough ppl incapable of moving to a better paid job because they were not good enough to do so.

Poll result, but we all know that next government will be of labour + Green + Winston Peter the king maker.

Poll result will go up and down but near to 22 September it will be for change.

We will be in deep trouble if those three get in. When it comes down to actually putting pen on paper and you have to decide I don't see how you could possibly vote for a Labour/Greens/NZF Circus act, you must be truly desperate and currently living on the street where it couldn't possibly get any worse for you and you have nothing to loose.

Well spoken, Carlos.

We can do without a circus, composed of a bunch of sideshows.

The circus is in fact the way the national government are running this country, and failing to stem growing inequality, child poverty etc.

No Fritz it the new crop of clowns and jokers who want to take over the circus that we should be worried about .

When you say "we" do you mean "property speculators"?

Like it or not this election will be for change of government

You are absolutely correct by admitting that national has bought many on the street and you may think what else can happen to you BUT by voting them out may be people who are on street have some hope and also by voting national out may stop or reduce many from going to the street.

The above is based on your admission that anyone who is on street has nothing to lose by voting for national as you have already been bought down.

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Picking a Labour NZF govt. Everyone i have talked to in the last couple of weeks wants the property stupidity to stop and more money in health and education as their priority. Interestingly most of them voted Nat last time around so all potentially swing votes.

How can folk be so gullible?. Labour will tax us all into misery and spread the benefits so thin it won't make a difference. Dole bludgers will never have enough and just want more and more.

Jacinda's refusal to call Meteria's actions for what thee are, a massive, premeditated fraud, should be called out. She is as bad as James Shaw in not condemning Meteria's actions and lack of remorse.

There are a reasonably large cohort of people that don't mind paying additional tax if that is what is needed to get NZ back to a fair and functioning society. Take health underfunding for example;

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11899109

Are you happy that our DHBs are sourcing tools used in surgeries at Mitre 10? This is unbelievable - but that's how bad it is in health.

We have the highest rate of teen suicide in the OECD. Again, are you happy with this statistic?

Clearly National's tax cuts went some way to worsen the rot - but the rot started many years ago because we NZers just don't want to willingly pay tax - and hence we rort the system at every turn. As someone else said on here, tax avoidance in NZ is a national pastime, part of our 'duty' to uphold the neoliberal/Washington consensus.

I've got absolutely no problem whatsoever paying more tax. I can afford it and there are plenty more out there like me.

Whats the problem ? A operating theatre in orthopedics is essentially a joinery ship. Do you really want to be like the American military. Paying $800 for a screwdriver, which was identical to a $10 one retail.
As for shortage of funds - if the surgical specialists moved from medieval type guild organisation, we would get twice the bang from half the buck. They like to blame managers, but actually the managers are them.

Oh for goodness sake. Did you read the article? Paint chips off, tools rust when sterilised, etc. And yes, I note that your solution to the wider problem is to pay surgeons less money.

I'd note it is also a National Party solution to everything - lower wages.

Sorry, IMO we should pay our highly qualified hospital staff far more money as long as the tax loopholes are closed and they all subsequently pay their actual fair share of tax from those higher incomes.

..keep mentioing Materia (years ago and on the bones of bum), need to tkae the focus of greedy Bill. Rental rort of $900 per week from the tax payer..all whilst being worth millions. Talk about eyes wide shut....

Oh come on, you lot, you know who you are. Ardern up!

Seriously, what the heck has Ms. Adhern done or said that has encouraged people to want to vote for Labour???
Mix them with the Greens and you have 2 parties that are certainly not going to be good for growth in NZ going forward.
NZ Has performed as good as any country in the world in the last 9 years and yet there are some that want to vote them out and put in a party that is being led by a person with no inspiring ideas.
For Petes sake she thinks that we should be providing free tertiary education again.
We haven't got enough tutors already and then graduates have trouble getting jobs in their qualified field.
How are we going to pay for it???
Labour and Greens are solely for the so called underprivileged and at the end of the day most people have the ability to make a sufficiently good living if they want to in NZ.
If the Labour / Greens coalition get in, but highly unlikely, then the Country will be stuffed economically as employers will not be able to compete on the world stage, end of storey.
Wouldn't be worth living as what would be the point of the average person going to work they might as well go on unemployment as they would probably get more!!

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Rest assured she will do more in her first week than was done in the 9 years previous.

It will take more than the first week to stuff the country

It is not what Labour leader has done that will get her votes but it is What National has done will take away the votes from national.

High time 9 years is too long a period. This is just the beginning and the momentum in current election is and will be for change which will reflect in the results.

You're dreaming. What she will do is tax us all substantially more and then hand out the lolly to her poverty stricken constituents who will waste then money and still be poverty stricken and ask for more.

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Why do you think Labour are 'solely for the underprivileged'? Labour's housing policy gives hope to all those key middle income professionals in education, healthcare, police and fire services etc to buy a house rather than be rental slaves or move out of Auckland - starving the city of those essential workers.

I reckon you've hit the crux of the problem National has now. The underprivileged now also includes the 'under-opportunitied', those who in previous generations were the lower-middle and middle classes who could work in average jobs and aspire to buy a small house and raise a family.

Since National has stood by and allowed their chances to be massively reduced in order to keep the feel-good ponzi for older investors going, that group of comparatively underprivileged folk has grown tremendously.

And they may just be realising that National does give a murine posterior about them.

Not once you strip immigration out of the GDP figures. And it gets worse if you look at GDP per capita.

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Watch those Auckland and Christchurch house prices continue to drop as the election date gets closer. Less immigration and CGT/DTI's are now a real possibility. So many people are worried about their housing prospects and those of their children and grandchildren. The fact that National dropped the ball on housing ( most NZers want to own their own home) is going to bite National in the proverbial. All Labour needed was a leader people felt comfortable with and who said " I will make your life better. " . Along came Jacinda and bingo. I can only presume National leaders will be working late tonight. They only have themselves to blame. We now have an election race. If that horrible man can become America's president surely someone as likeable as Jacinda can ge Labour over the line.

I completely agree. Housing and the mess National have let happen is the crux of this election. Several comments recently about the sheer number of companies registered that own property, but loose money every year. All by design and fully supported by national for nine years.

Vote for the view (bank profits and specuvestor debt farming), or vote for the many (the rest of NZ). No brainier.

Yes agree, national truly deserve another 3 years...as punishment

We already are lead by a person with no inspiring ideas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_gen...

Repeat of the UK election? Small hit on National, minor parties decimated, massive Labour surge but short of being the largest party?

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Good and pleased to see the Ardern effect
#jacindamania
#voteforchange

No doubt that this election will be vote for change.

Yes at this stage I'm happy to support Ardern. Better Labour than the callous good for nothing blues.

CJ099 you have been trying to talk down the property market forever. Voting her Jacinda will do that for you.... because of a lack of confidence and everyone who buys houses being poorer because Labour will tax you into poverty.

No, the housing market will more likely cool because of a lack of buyers, as we are seeing now. The world's awash with debt, if you hadn't noticed.

And no, what will put most new property owners into poverty are the bubble prices having been paid and the corresponding debt taken on to service those inflated mortgages.

Why do you think National has retained and expanded WFF and Accommodation Supplements that were brought in by the last Labour government? Every time a Nat Minister is asked a question in Parliament about poverty, the housing market, inequality etc. - they always answer with 'look what we've just done to increase the amount spent on these supplements'.

We need a government that can find a way to wean us off these 'supplements' where our middle/working class NZers are concerned. And the key to that is to increase our per capita productivity. All National has done in nine long years is increase our population. Productivity continues to worsen... and hence all the middle class welfare requirements.

If you can't see that we need to reverse this trend, then you must simply have one heck of a lot of residential property debt - as this speculative cohort is the one who it seems to me most fears change. But the point is, the market is going to correct regardless of who is in government. The key is in having a government willing to admit/recognise the problem and change settings for the better such that the correction is less painful.

Totally agree, well said. Per capita GDP is the killer stat, It's gone...nowhere. I think history has will judge this National govt quite harshly.

GDP/PC and GDP/PC 'PPP' is up about 8%. But more important are wages and they are up about 28% less inflation which is about 13%, so circa 15% wage rise.

@keeppositive: Sorry but that's utter rubbish! And the AKL property market has been in decline since January this year or haven't you noticed.

That doesn't sound right? Wasn't the all time high in March? To have the high in any January seems, challenging.

Still awaiting an answer to my question as to what has she said that wants to make people want to vte for Labour that is going to make the quality of life in NZ better and more economic.
She may smile nicely with those flashing teeth but no substance or fully thought out ideas.
Dreamers!!!!!
Gordon good to see you are full of positivey.
Not affecting us at all with average return of approx. 10 per cent and prices are holding up.
Would be more worried about your equities and challenge to you still there if you are prepared to take it,

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Adern doesnt have to say anything, not when the country has gone to pot with

Record levels of Immigration
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/new-zealand-immigration-hi...
New Zealanders being called druggies by English
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89876945/Bill-English-claims-ab...
Record levels of homelessness
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/07/nz-s-homelessness-the-wor...

NZ becoming a low wage economy
FHB being priced out of the market
Record levels of Debt
Infrastructure chaos

And the list goes on......

NZ has had its problems, but they were not very big problems, so I didnt really care who got in.

But national have completely changed the fabric of NZ, where greed has overtaken community. Its all about competing with the Jones's, not helping the Jones's. Classic example DGZ and his riff raff.

So negative TM2, from the self proclaimed Mr Positive.
I suspect NZ voters are reacting positively to Labours policies TM2
Maybe you should acquainted yourself with them - before making anymore irrational comments.

Negative and worried is he. CGT, DTI's and stronger TMI's are a real possibility. If Jacinda was the leader of National she would have them at 80 per cent as she is a decent likeable person. National will be in crisis mode this morning just like The Boy. He is only back on this site as fear has got the best of him. His very narrow portfolio of rubbish in Christchurch is going down the drain. Credible data tells us rents and values are dropping in Christchurch as listings rise. National dropped the ball in terms of housing. They might just lose the match with that one mistake. For the record I have generally voted National at elections. She is a breath of fresh air. What you see is what you get. The Boy forgets that many are struggling to get on the ladder and they worry about how their children and grandchildren will get on it. Not everyone lives in Christchurch where houses are cheap and are getting cheaper by the day.

Adern does not have any commercial or business background and that will be detrimental to the NZ economy.
Unfortunately Ardern thinks NZ can tax itself into prosperity which tells me she has a mathematical difficiency.

No one can take too much notice of the published figures in Christchurch as the As Is Where Is market is skewing figures!

Bill English: 29 years in parliament, career politician. Minor stints on the family farm and as a policy wonk after uni.

Nick Smith: 27 years in parliament, after coming in age 26. PhD in landslides, some experience as an engineer and director of his family's company between the time of completing his PhD and entering parliament at age 26.

Stephen Joyce: Actually has significant business experience. This perhaps led to him being part of the stellar team who negotiated so astutely ("cough") with Skycity over the conference centre, and despite a long career in radio describe National's use of an Eminem soundalike track called "Eminem-esque" as "pretty legal".

Note these leaders and a former investment banker have overseen the most inflated property bubble ever in NZ's history.

With their track record and qualifications, I'm not sure it's the best angle of attack against Labour.

Don't forget Gerry and Paula.

Gerry couldn't even qualify for university. I heard he was good at making wooden pencil cases though. This is presumably the important 'real world experience' that people like notaneconomist like in our politicians.

The more accurate way to describe career politicians is as beneficiaries. Essentially high paid bludgers.

What policies except she wants to bring in more taxes!!!
Labour are becoming so far left that there is no logic to a lot of what they say.
They are a total rabble to what they used to be in the seventies and eighties.
They did represent the people back then but now they are a bunch of people with very few life skills.
There is more to NZ than just looking after the people who are not as fortunate as others.
It is life and everyone can not have the same financial wealth or it is the. A communist country and we don't want to go down that path as it is abhorrent.

..well charging for water is a good start. Ring fencing rental tax losses pretty good too. And the main reason...a vote for her is not a vote for the nats.

All these taxes and water charges and what not. I feel like I will go broke voting for Labour as they have managed to demonstrate (so far) that all they want is handouts from everyone. It's hard to be positive with all these negative policies.

The argument against Labour's economic record and policies always seems to come down to 'I feel like...'. Got any actual evidence they are worse for the country than National?

..well the so callaed taxes are needed ot clean up the mess created (largly by dairy). And lets not mention the tax payer subsidy (gift) to various irigation schemes...much of which the net benfit will flow into tax free cap gain on the land underfoot.

So hardly a tax on these users, more like an allocation of the true cost.

Yes, and additionally the Freshwater Improvement Fund when introduced, also included irrigation as one of the qualifying projects for subsidy from this fund announced in the 2016 budget. Here's Russell Norman's comments on that when it was introduced;

So not only does the Government subsidise irrigation schemes through the Crown Irrigation Fund ($120 million) and the Irrigation Acceleration Fund ($60 million), but the Freshwater Improvement Fund ($100 million), which could be cleaning up the pollution created by these irrigation schemes, can also be spent on ... more irrigation schemes.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11645557

Sheer madness, the Nats.

The Man, what you are saying is logical from your point of view and many others. SImilarly I am extremely worried at the likelihood of wholesale tax grabs. But it is illogical to try and use logic to combat and influence electorate sentimentalism that is drenched and dripping in anti-ism at the current establishment and state of affairs. Brexit and Trump were not the result of logical voting. Be it right or be it wrong, good or bad, the new Labour leader has become the fuse for all that direction has been looking for.

So National have made everyone greedy ? talk about blame the government for everything. House prices have been going nuts ever since I arrived in NZ from the UK in 1974 at the age of 7. Its been dog eat dog and everyone for themselves since I can remember. What has also changed is the influx of Asians and they have a different work and study ethic to Kiwi's, they really work their asses off, you have to give it to them they strive to achieve and faced with this our snowflake generation just melt.

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What a disgusting example of reverse racism.

I guess this is multi-culturalism. Except it's not really. Immigrants are likely to try and work the system to maximum advantage which isn't necessarily wrong just not all that great. For example they will really push their children to learn a classical musical instrument while never having a love or even a mild interest in classical music themselves. They will get extra math tutoring that is designed to pass the exams rather than understand the maths.They will follow to the letter the voice of authority and rarely question anything.

We all live in a multi-cultural society and should live together in harmony, understand each others' cultures instead of criticising people who come from different backgrounds. We should celebrate diversity and strive to improve the way we live and interact with each other.

I disagree, criticism should be encouraged and accepted. Being totally uncritical is pretty stupid to be honest. Some cultural practices are unacceptable. Cultures should compete so that cultures can improve. It's a natural process of selection. If you read Carlos's comment he is basically describing this process.

If Jacinda can debate well she'll start taking chunks out of Nat's support.

Mike, so far Jacinda has said nothing of much substance.
Airey fairey statements about taxing this and that but no detail as to how much etc.
Just like the BS that Labour stated about building Affordable Homes and had no detail as to how much they were etc.
Labour is in cuckoo land if they think that the less fortunate should have all these handouts to bring them up to say the average earning person in NZ.
Why should people who don't get off their butts to improve their lot have more handouts just so they can receive as much as the average hardworking Kiwi.
Some of you just need to realise that life isn't as fair as you would like it so go and do something about it.
Yes I know you will all want a crack at me, but for christs sake a lot of you are self centred, jealous individuals with a major chip on your shoulders, and nothing would ever be fair or right for you.

Like Tump Jacinda does not have to do too much to get support. All she has to say is " I will make your life better in terms of housing, health and education." National certainly has done nothing in the housing area. If it was not for the Reserve Bank we would not be in the position we are in today where house prices are dropping especially in Auckland and Christchurch. National has consistently pointed out that there is not a house pricing problem in New Zealand. Tell that to the many people who are struggling to get on the ladder. The Boy forgets that not everyone is born into the same position in terms of grey matter, opportunity and ability to earn a good living. He has no compassion just like National. National will be in crisis mode because if Jacinda becomes the most preferred leader in the polls that trend will bring in more people who want to back a winner.

@TM2 I'm not quite sure how reply relates to my comment. But anyway, I was referring to the actual leaders' debate taking place closer to election time.

How do you know what hard working is TM2 when you don't have an actual job? You take money from the poor (for doing very little - lets be honest)....then complain that the poor get given money for doing nothing....

Here's a quote from an old book thats lasted the test of time....:
For with the same judgment you pronounce, you will be judged; and with the measure you use, it will be measured to you. Why do you look at the speck in your brother’s eye, but fail to notice the beam in your own eye? How can you say to your brother, ‘Let me take the speck out of your eye,’ while there is still a beam in your own eye?…

Ii think I will start a business in NZ selling water tanks (made in China)

Im just waiting for the first middle class white male commentator on this site to yell at the top of his key board - Shes just a naughty little girl who needs to go to her room, shes not allowed to tell me what to do - I can feel the writhing snakes sitting just below the shallow facade of acceptance ..... Ill give it two weeks.

You know , everyone bangs on about inequality , but we have one employee ( a driver ) who after paying tax , is tithed to his church who are quite aggressive about collecting its money , and he sends a big chunk of what is left to the Islands for what appears to be a massive extended family .

He is perpetually broke and always borrowing money from payday lenders , which simply compound his plight .

No matter what happens , tragically , he will always be on the lower economic rungs of our society , and so will the rest of his NZ resident family

Yes, I think in fairness religion is sometimes helpful in addressing poverty (I've worked alongside religious organisations in anti-poverty work) and at other times serves to perpetuate it on a grand scale.

Brian Tamaki and co would be a fine example re your latter comment.

Agree. And often the Catholic church resisting government attempts (usually in poorer countries) to give women control over their reproduction via the provision of free / subsidised birth control.

Independant Observer, I have worked hard for many years prior to being reliant on investments.
I would work a 8.30 to 5 and then go home and renovate property over many years while others were enjoying themselves.
I am employed by myself being a property investor and it does involve work however it does give me flexibility and an excellent income.
Life has its ups and downs for everyone and my life has not always been easy but you hang in there do the best you can.
Far too many expect the country to provide everything for them and with that attitude they won't go far.
NZ and especially ChCh offers opportunities continuously but you need to get off your butt and tap into people's knowledge who have been successful as it generally costs nothing.
Gordon good to see you still reading my gospel truth.

You worked so hard and everyone else was so lazy. If you do in fact have a portfolio of property in that small city called Christchurch including your as is where is properties you were blessed with timing for a start. You have no compassion or empathy for those with less grey matter than yourself and for those born after you who are now saddled with 10 times incomes to buy their first home let alone an investment property. You would have faced 5 times at the most. I have to say 10 times in Christchurch would be achievable as they are so cheap and getting cheaper by the day. Why anyone would be buying in Christchurch today amazes me as they are bound to lose equity as it gets cheaper down there. I can see why you love National so much as they completely dropped the ball on housing and that might be their downfall in this election.

Gordon, absolute waste of time debating with you as you are so closed shop.
If you doubt I have a large property portfolio in Chch then take me up on the offer that has been made to you numerous times!!!
If you haven't got the guts then stop suggesting that I am lieing.
If you want to meet the challenge I will do all the arranging and you will only need to pay up the money at the end!!!

Closed shop! What a laugh. The pot calling the kettle black. Every time you comment it is about how hard you have worked and how lazy everyone else is. I admit I have been lucky with timing and how cheap assets were when I bought them. You just say how great you are. How generous you are to your tenants who are so lucky to have you as your landlord. Your comments about shares are so far from reality it is laughable. As my shares continue to reach for the blue sky your humble assets are dropping in value and dropping in yield return according to a number of reliable sources such as the REINZ. What about your promise to stop commenting on this site.