Labour could form a government with either New Zealand First, or with the Greens and Maori Party, latest 1News poll shows; Stuff leaders' debate in Christchurch

Labour could form a government with either New Zealand First, or with the Greens and Maori Party, latest 1News poll shows; Stuff leaders' debate in Christchurch

By Alex Tarrant

Labour could form a government with the Greens and Maori Party, or choose to go with New Zealand First only, according to the latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll.

Labour's polling was steady on 43% of the vote, giving them 53 seats, according to 1 News. The Greens on 5% (steady) would get 6 seats, and the Maori Party on 2% (up one point) would return with 2, giving 61 seats. New Zealand First was up one point at 9%, which would indicate 11 seats.

Meanwhile, National was down two points at 39%, indicating 48 seats. ACT was steady on 0.1% - Epsom contributing to its forecast seat - and TOP was up a point at 2%.

A National, NZF, ACT combination would only lead to 60 seats.

The poll comes ahead of Bill English and Jacinda Ardern going head to head in the Stuff leaders' debate in Christchurch. You can watch that here. We're not live blogging this one as it goes, but will cover it. Feel free to comment below.

In initial stages of the debate, the leaders were asked for their views on the poll. Ardern said her first phone call would still be to the Green Party - as she has promised. She again said Winston Peters would not be given the Finance Minister role if Labour enters coalition with NZF, but said other positions were moving into hypothetical territory.

English said he was "not particularly" worried about the poll, saying he was bouyed by this election being fought over policy - more so than previous ones.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.



Looks like Joyce's lies have backfired on National, and people are ready for a fairer tax structure.


people dont like blatant lies, or negative politics something labour has just learned
that is talk around the office, time for a change cant trust national anymore.


People are fed up with policy of Denial, Lie and Manipulation and with losing ground are exposing more of their true self.

As time progresses their desperation will expose them further.

This time Jacinda Government.

Like changing your website when you are caught lying

I would be a little kinder and say the Campaign Strategists are getting desperate.
Not the Russians, our consultants across the Tassie.

They could try the old dancing cossacks commercials...

They already dusted those off when there was opposition to the electricity generation asset sell-off.


While National and the media lambasted Jacinda for her 'values,' clearly they resonate well with New Zealanders. Steven Joyce thought the headline grab would scoop the truth. I think Kiwis have well and truly had enough of National and their lazy politics. If they'd done half the shit over the last nine years, they are promising this week, Labour wouldn't have a chance.

Blue meanie, I'm surprised about your comment. Why did you bet with me a while ago that National would be able to govern alone ?

He did?? wow ...!!!


Hey Yvil, I didn't say they'd govern alone, I said they'd govern without Winston and they'd use the usual suspects. 'Twas a different time three months ago. Remember? Labour had that Little problem. Everyone was still buying "Rock Star" and no party was aggressively challenging the status quo. It looked like more of the same old smiling and waving was going to do the trick. That was until Jacinda...

Agree, national could still have walked this, instead BE threw it away, again. Guess he'll be back farming in 2018, can but hope.


Hieght of Arrogancy or Stupidity or Both.

Bill English still supporting Joyce after everything is out in open.

Is it hole or Ahole and that too Giant size.

Number of children living in poverty:
2001 310k Labour

2016 295k National

Data from Otago University shows the situation is getting better.
Jicinda should admit that the problem of children in poverty was worse when Labour was in government.

To compare like for like you should use 2007/2008 for Labour. Why did you use 2001?

Surely it was a satirical comment...

Yes, Labour saw those figures and thought they were terrible. They came up with Working For Families which was introduced in 2005 IIRC.

National on the other hand have just wrung their hands and said it's not sensible to set a target because poverty is such a complicated issue and they want to keep their options open for how to tackle it (I think anyone with a university education will see that for the bullshit it is).

@Ocelot. Don't be ridiculous........"a fairer tax structure". Already we have 15% of people paying 75% of the taxes and Taxinda and her friends in the Fraud (Green) Party will have the 15% pay even more. How is that fair?
Their policies lack substance but are grounded in on the politics of envy.
They have had 9 years in opposition and don't even have comprehensive policies - just a policy position that "we will form a tax working group" to tax us (all the working people) more to buy votes.
Policies of the left are based on total arrogance that they (Labour and Co) know better that all of us what we should do with our money. Despite the fact that we earn it that will have us believe that it is better for us to give more to them so they can give it to someone else. How is that fair?

Depends on how you cherry pick the data point. While the top 10% of New Zealanders pay 47% of all income tax, at the same time they earn 34% of all the income. Declared income, that is – a lot of income for the wealthy gets hidden in various ways, earned via capital gains, or accountants "hiding" it.. Then that also doesnt count GST which is regressive in nature.

So when you actually start to look at the so called progressive atx system, actually it isnt it really goes pretty flat at 100k

So really it comes down to are you happy with the ppl dodgling tax and actually paying little and are you happy that actually once above around $100K you dont really pay more tax as a %.

Then we can look at the parasitic nature of the income of the wealthy where in effect they can skim a huge % off the top almost dictating the margin they 20% per annum can be got that comes off the poor.

So for me, sorry its not an envy tax its a fairness tax.


Joyce needs to join Smitty on some top level highly secret fact finding mission to Outer Mongolia and stay there till the 23rd.


Now that it looks like National will lose you can see the voters that just want to bet on the winner are changing sides now. The ones that haven't switched sides yet are the ones that "don't do math gud" like the Finance Minister.

"Now that it looks like National will lose you can see the voters that just want to bet on the winner are changing sides now"
If New Zealanders really vote to "bet on the winner", we really deserve every national and labour government we get... I would hope at least half of our electorate has more brains than gambling compulsion...


Time for National to go, too many lies, too much laziness. And no one voted in Bill English in anyway.
Simply; it's time for change!


His jaw dropped when they mentioned those poll results at the beginning.

Still no shame in lying. Thick skin is an understatement. Time for him to go


Thank you Joycey...Momentum momentum momentum

Will National lose this time under English and then come back stronger in 2020 under another charismatic younger leader ? Will history repeat ?

I would not be surprised if Jacinda remains in power for a very long time. My strongest wish is that the "practicalities" of government and leadership do not blunt her honesty, idealism and positivity.

Yes and nationals after the election will fall apart and be in a hell of a state for many years I think . Jacinda is such a good age, new ideas , labour will be strong for many years

What history?

Your "charismatic younger leader" after Bill English lost was Don Brash.

National did have a term bounce back was under a young 54 year old called Muldoon in 1975.


Ardern is slaughtering English in the debate

Yeah, she learnt a lot from the last one. She has great responses to all the attacks and has added a bunch of her own. This is a paddlin'.

Loving her response to her plan for a working tax group. Most people are actually excited for the potential changes for a fairer system, as much as people might be afraid of potential change, many of us are imagining our preferred changes to the tax system. She's even saying that she will be listening to taxpayers in conjunction with the working group. A clever way of saying "all your dreams will come true" - Pedro

In Bill's favour he's interrupting less than Jacinda. It makes me like him more. I just wish he hadn't lied so much about the Joyce stuff.

My favourite line from the debate "I will not preside over a housing crisis."


I gave the last debate to English - just - but she's dominating this one.
Bill really looking like yesterday's man

If Jacinda's name was sue or Joan she wouldn't have gotten this far


Notice how nobody in this debate mentioned immigration. Labour are just national lite. These debates are so boring without Winston.

Labour don't need to mention it. Has been covered plenty. It's been in their policy for quite some time that they are aiming for a 20-30,000 reduction over existing rates.

is it still the same now that Stats found another 60,000 migrants that were unaccounted for?

"Of that figure, 45,000 occurred in 2001 and 2002." So since then, it's been about 1000 a year out, what's your point? Labour are looking at shifting it considerably more than that margin or error.

Do we still have overstayers?


Time for the national party scumbags to move on

Is it just me or was Jacinda's mic volume much much louder than the other two?

Looked like they changed the mic

Any Government without NZF will be just fine !


More lies from you know who - they are getting quite desperate.

This is not the kiwi way. Jk has truly bastardized this National Party.


it turned out about the numbers were so small it made little difference but that did not stop BE from calling all the young unemployed druggies

The forgotten lie

Amazing that it hasn't come back to haunt Bill - when NZ Stats came out and proved him a liar

This lolly scramble election , might become a poison chalice who ever wins !
Then throw the king maker in the mix . Just be careful what you wish for or vote ,interesting times ahead.


I don't know why anyone would vote for national at all. All they've done in 9 years is this stupid idea of selling out the country to get property prices up which could never had lasted and half way through there 3rd term has proved that it hasn't worked because now the country's crashing and there heaps of facts out there to say it's on the way down with just as many fact out there saying it could be bad. Like new records for investor dept, overseas money gone and theres plenty more shocking figures. 5th most unaffordable city in the world, other city's that tryed the same plan that are crashing now etc etc.. It's just great that the truth of this stupid bubble has fully come out under nationals watch. Labour helped the country going into the 2008 GFC. And now after 9 years of nationals stupidity labour will have to save the country again. It's just a shame labour has to start there 1st year with such a bad job as a property crash

Utter Rubbish

O4.... normal? What say you about the last property bubble under labour's watch 2007/8? I pity you & others thinking Taxinda & her merry men will swoop in and save everyone. If (when) she becomes PM, as I believe she will because everyone seems to be buying the confusion of BS they're sprooking with "spend spend spend, tax tax tax", she will rival Trump as the worlds most under qualified leader of a country. This should be interesting....

I pity you & others thinking Taxinda & her merry men will swoop in and save everyone

This looks like another strawman. I don't know anyone who thinks Labour would do that.

Im not sure if you could call labours period a bubble. It was more controlled over a long period. 2000 to 2008. House prices went up because the government had everything running smoothly. The governments books were great. People weren't living in cars and put up in motels, taxes were normal other wise they wouldn't have had such a great term for 9years . Housing was still doing well even at 9% interest rates and it was the GFC that ended that boom. The country wouldn't have done very well after the GFC if it wasn't for labours great books. Want did they say last nite. National put taxes up 18 times. Who's the tax party?. Sold all the state houses . National simply lies, twists everything and does nothing. LOOK AT THE EXPERTS. EXPERTS . Over this $11 billion, just trying to quickly get something in people's minds but there lies backfired badly. There's a lot of people in nz that probably think houses prices will drop under labour but guess what , they are already and need to. You bring larger amounts of money to buy houses into the country than the locals incomes and fire people up to buy with low interest rates then take it away and think thats a economy and one that would carry on you'd be mad.

Spell check - spruiking - used in a sentence - property spruiking

Yes and unlike Trump she will surround herself with good people who make up for any inadequacies, thats what good leaders do - but they wont have to wipe dribble from her chin like his advisers have too.

Thanks auto correct.
Hahahahaha. Lipstick on a pig.

sorry dont trust the polls in todays world, i do think national and labour are neck and neck and have thought that for awhile, its only now that labour voters are quite open about supporting them with jacinda so it has become more visible.
i have said all along that national would have trouble without support partners, ACT are gone (and thats from inside ex high up members) and i expect them to disappear next election when national take back Epsom.
they should have nurtured the conservatives instead of trying to demolish them, okay CC was a nutter but he would have found his way out of parliament in short order.
now unless they can get enough support to govern alone it only leaves WP and they have to much bad blood to join together without it falling apart quickly like the first coalition they formed

National Down
Housing Down

Not a great day for some.

Haha, I wouldn't be surprised ether if labour had to that labour, greens and Winnie got together because they're so sick of national. I'd be very very surprised if nz isn't heading into a recession. Nationals put the country in Lala land

It is for me... :)


There last night, Bill lost the Christchurch crowd could he be so out of touch with a local community, quite amazing.

I love the way Jacinda lets bill go on and on over the same boring rubbish, it makes him look so bad. Then bang Jacinda says something bright new and intelligent and to the point. Then stops and he starts over again. Quit funny

John Key put Bill in a very indefensible position to face an election. And to compound the problem, Jacinda happened to Labour. Double whammy indeed.

Interesting indeed. Looking easily a labour NZF win. Big structural changes to investment land scape coming.

5 year bright line
sales of existing houses banned for non residents
WOF for rental houses
money from roads funneled into rail instead

i predict a drop in the dollar and markets on the Monday after the election, they will recover but could be a buying time around then

Interesting NZF is on 9%, Yet Winston only has 5% for preferred PM. Seems like a lot of NZF supporters want him there as a moderator , rather than PM.

Who is ready to sacrifice the tax cuts already programmed by National and accept the possibility of more taxes under Labour ?

Tax cuts are not much good to you if you or your loved one is going blind or dying from cancer because hospitals are so poorly funded that they cannot provide an adequate service

Rubbish what do you think this is, Haiti? My close friend has just recovered from breast cancer at 37 and could not be more full with praise over our health system.

Agreed, we have one of the best health and education systems in the world. All for free.

as someone who has a family member going through cancer treatment sorry i have to disagree, the doctors and nurses are great but when you get sent home after an operation with 3 tubes (2 pumps) straight away because there are no beds we have a problem, even the district nurses that were sent in daily to check the pumps and change dressings where shocked they had done that and said we should go back and demand a place in the hospital,
and on top of that the couple of times we ended up back in hospital when the pump fell off or the surgery got infected again finding a bed was a huge problem.
nothing against the doctors and nurses they are fantastic it is just our hospitals can not cope with the amount of people we now have and need major dollars spent to enlarge them

"The shortcomings have never affected me so I assume everything is fine."

Itsthe ones that are not even getting to a doctor or hospital that are the problem. Not necessarily the governments or health sectors fault, but it is a growing proportion of the population.

I'll take your bait.

Why yes I would be more than happy to sacrifice the pittance in a tax cut that I would have received from National, and run the risk of paying a pittance more in tax under Labour. $26 a week is less than the margin or error in my grocery bill, and really is not the sort of thing to be fearful of.

As BE emphasised last night, don't forget the $8 per week you'll get if you are a pensioner.
Real revolutionary stuff.
A line from Black Books comes to mind right now.

On a somewhat related note, shouldn't the election countdown on this site show 15 days?

Do you think Bill English will resign if he loses this election?

I will cast my ballot on Monday for National, as I have done since 1981. If they lose the election, then I expect them to have a hard look at why and plan ahead for 2020. At a minimum, anyone over 45 needs to have their position re-assessed. I'd also look at culling career politicians as the private sector doesn't provide jobs for life anymore. John Key regularly revised the makeup of his cabinet, even axing himself. This needs to continue. English, Joyce, Collins, Smith et al, time to be put to pasture.

i dont think that will happen, apart from BE the rest will hang in there for the next election and will do national no favours of being able to regenerate with fresh young talent

Unfortunately I think you are correct, at least with Collins not going. I expect to be put out to pasture before 2020 and have no issue with that. Politicians should have the same self awareness. Sir John Key had it. It's not the end of contributing, it's just done in a different sphere.

How old is bill English?

I agree with some that you can't believe the polls entirely in a close horse race. Look at the U.S. Hillary all the way according to the Media, until Trump romped home at that very end much to the world's surprise...
Doesn't matter who gets in, any politician/party experienced or not will say and do anything to get into power. After a few years everyone moans that nothing was achieved and then ultimately change happens and history repeats. I just hope many have concrete reason for whatever the vote, rather than being sold on ideas that haven't eventuated or even been proposed in detail for how it's going to be achieved. Talk is cheap, but the mobs are easily sold on talk and false hope, without substance!

Didn't you hear Hillary actually won the popular vote - it is only the vagaries of the college electoral system that Trump won more electoral college votes ( like the old first past the post system). NZ has MMP so seats will be based on percentage of votes won.

We're voting in the best of a bad bunch.

Yep I agree with you on the mobs being easily sold, comes from desperation in some cases.

Don't think so, a few socialists on a website commentary section won't change the election, from all the comments I have read this past year re: labour vs national the only 2 things national have stuffed up is on immigration and having bill English as the next leader, he's a bit like Hillary, anyone other than Hillary would have beaten trump...


You've forgotten housing, wealth inequality, child poverty, percentage of people incarcerated, homelessness, mental health, national debt, panama papers, Afghanistan money laundering, the environment, rivers.

Jacinda is nothing like Hilary, more akin to Trudeau in Canada.

Taxinda has a looming problem in the form of Kelvin Davis. In my experience, people who have had Leadership positions e.g. as a Principal seldom make good deputies and this one is a barely muzzled mongrel. He showed that with his comment previously and did it this morning with the Bennett BMW comment. The Nats should bait him until he blows up. That would show how shallow the gene pool is in Labour.

A bit like we haven't seen anything of Paula Bennet? Oh apart from the denying Human rights cat call to the talk-back listeners that had Bill English having to backtrack on the next day.

PB was on TV3 this morning with Kelvin Davis aka Prince Uncharming.

I watched that interview and PB was looking the wheels are starting to fall of the National train. (admittedly both sides were pretty bad). She didn't appear to believe what she was saying re: Joyce 11bn 'hole'.

I'm not going to vote labour champ, hopefully they'll beat National, but I'm voting Green, I'm old enough to recognize where I want my tax dollars to go. National do nothing for me emotionally, never have, no doubt never will, their time has gone, it's time to recognize that the planet is finite, I'm alright jack, but my kids may not be and their kids probably won't be. Enough kicking cans, it's time for people to take responsibility for the next multiple generations.

Housing is not over priced and has just corrected to its fair value, it was cheap and now is at the market price, wealth inequity is due to middle class getting smashed, poor will always be poor and rich will always be rich, but middle class bear the brunt of Politicians fancies, there is no child poverty or poverty for that matter in New zealand as everything for free, please name something you have to Pay for in our socialist state, we are being tougher on crime and would like a few more % up for the jail birds, homelessness has been made up by media, everyone in New Zealand gets free accommodation unless they are a mentally ill drug addict that decides to sleep under a bridge, mental health, yes maybe those issues are increasing as we acknowledge the problem more due to john KirwAn, panama papers and Afghanistan dealings really is tin hat bull shit we shouldn't waste our time on, NZ enoviroment is a thousand times better than 99% of the world, and if the worst we have is a bit of cow shit in a stream then we should really be thankful for that, i said bill is like Hillary, anyone but bill and we would win the election, cheers

"Housing is not over priced and has just corrected to its fair value, it was cheap and now is at the market price, wealth inequity is due to middle class getting smashed, poor will always be poor and rich will always be rich, but middle class bear the brunt of Politicians fancies, there is no child poverty or poverty for that matter in New zealand as everything for free"

That is hilarious, particularly housing has corrected, yes with 10 times income and people spending 50% of their income on accomodation. Doesnt sound like a correction to me. Plus 1 mill for an average house in Auckland in the arse end of the world.

Also as someone who grew up with a single mum with 3 children, I can tell you there is poverty, and life is tough. No food, and barely surviving. My mum would work two jobs and I had to look after the younger kids after school as she worked nights. The only saving grace is that NZ is a great place to grow up and we dont have a class system. We go to school in uniforms, so no one knows you dont have great clothes, we have the same education, and no one cares where you live or what kind of car you drive. Of course we lived in the country, not somewhere like DGZ. But the country is great, and has great values, and is typical NZ.

Just look at the Barretts the AB's go back to the farm and eat scones, drink milk from the VAT thats typical NZ to me not some Louie Vuitton wannabees.

We do have a class system, it's just not as obvious as in old blighty.

You may do but where I come from we dont.

I work in banking, and Im starting up a company with a business partner who has a family who owns massive construction company in Oz..

But Im lower class then and proud as Im a poor Maori boy from waiuku, who lived in a Caravan and State Homes. I dont feel lower class in the slightest, NZ is great like that. My friends in waiuku are farmers with the normal 2 cars, batch and boats. They look and act like farmers, in terms of down to earth with runged clothes as farmers in NZ do, just stock standard normal guys. I have 2 friends that went to Grammar, one friend is high up at Westpac, hes a rugby playing guy from King Country. The other is from Thames Valley another rugby guy who made a couple of mill last year, all simple Country boys. I have loads of NZ friends with similar backgrounds and good stock standard guys who love sports, beer, fishing. None would think of themselves as some type of class.

Only the Louis Vuitton bag handlers think of NZ with a class system, it helps there narrative thinking they are better. All others think its just life, and treat people as equal as long as they are nice.

Swapacrate. Luckily the good old kiwi is most of you and I. Head high little Maori boy

Cheers Buddy or Budette as they case may be :) .

Haha . Bud

um again no, housing is massively over priced, that's why people can't afford to buy a house. You're going to feel the pain, and quite frankly I'm glad, see you next year when you realize that, don't expect me to bail you out.

+1800 options on Trademe $400-$600k. I call BS. Like I always say, people can afford to buy it just might not be One Tree Hill and therefore nah, not good enough. People don't want to buy in south Auckland and CLIMB THE PROPERTY LADDER. That's the problem.

Key west. The market doesn't work like that. You can't say house prices are correct if prices are going up OR down. We can do figures about dept and incomes and volumes but at the end of the day like it's always been supply and demand sets the prices. If the buyers like now don't buy listings grow and sales get less. Listings haven't grown much at the moment because of the election but I would expect that to grow. Also sales could increase soon because people that really would like to sell will drop there prices . If listing were to drop or simply not enough homes , prices could flatten out but still people need to buy and sell. There's lots of different levels to the housing supply. Some could afford different levels but if demand is low and listing high, prices will fall. The big change in Auckland is there was easy large and fast amounts of buyers. Ok say that's over. What's left in the supply and demand. Demand is low because most of the volume of buyers can't afford the current prices on most income levels. Not just the poor although I feel Auckland has pushed mum and dad investors to the limits leaving mostly FHBers to pick up demand for some time. SUPPLY, supply will come down to the amount of listing and what will people take for there houses . 2 things about Auckland is normally there's a decent amount to pick from and people sell for millions of different reasons. Could they drop there prices because it only takes a few to reset prices . Remember there's a lot more people that DIDNT over pay for there houses than did. The market will work itself out with supply and demand but I'm expecting after a big sell off soon , then a very long stagnant period . Similar to 2008 but 10 times worse for obvious reasons

Do you honestly think things will get better under Labour?

They will sit in power for 9 years, then everyone will vote National because of the "terrible job" "Things have got worse" etc...

Then we rinse and repeat.

Both Labour and National have had 100 years to sort things out. Vote for a real change.

Agree wholeheartedly noncents. From the polls though, 82% of kiwi voters seem to be stuck in the past of FPP. Maybe when this generation dies out it might be more Mixed and Proportional...

This is a 100% copy of Donald Trump's election strategy , make outrageous promises you know you cannot keep , just to get elected , and then leave the idiots who voted for you high and dry and scratching their heads thinking WTF ?

It's strange how all your statements directed at Labour almost perfectly describe bizarre..

Agree 100% with you Boatman,

Case in Point:

I voted for a guy in 2008 (and the next time, and the next time) who was going to:

1. Address shameful Auckland house prices
2. Get rid of creeping middle class communism (working for families)
3. Oh and wasn't going to raise GST....

How did that all work out?????

Yeah.....the thing is they're all full of sh!t - just some are too blind to see past their favorite political colour...some ridiculous blind devotion to "colour x over colour y" no matter what the evidence may show.

Having said that I truly hope we don't go back to the horrific Labour years under Aunty Helen...that famine and end of days was dreadful.

Memories of living on turnips and others scraps under the motorway over-bridge...etc etc...

What a LOAD of HYSTERICAL nonsense I've seen about a change of Govt.

NOTHING will change of any degree..........they all fiddle around the edges and never ever remove a tough decision made by previous Govt.

They all become populist cowards only seeking re-election.

In fact the only thing that I'm liking from this election is that it seems youth (the ones who will pay my retirement..) are energized and actually giving a damn after being screwed by boomers for years...

I think she's going to make it! People are ready for change like France and Canada... younger generations have nothing to lose now

I'm a little worried some labour voters won't bother voting,

I think maybe before when it looked like Labour didnt have a chance, but maybe now, when they see that Labour could win it could persuade people to vote.

I hope so. Labour looks so positive,

I hope so - they are needed.
My son just came home from a week long sports tournament in Sth Akl. Days started early.
He commented that there was a lot of people sleeping in cars when they got to the ground in the morning.
Lot of people on this site pooing their pants about losing unearned incomes but National's policies have been focussed on the top 10% and they don't give a toss about the rest.


National look after the top 10%, Labour look after the bottom 20%.

So who looks after the middle 70%?

Jacinda will! ;)