China exports surge; US waters down tariff talk; Japan C/A surplus jumps, growth revised up; US household debt rises; air travel growth sags; UST 10yr at 2.86%; oil and gold drop; NZ$1 = 72.6 USc; TWI-5 = 73.7

Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of a huge trade surplus in China.

China’s exports hit a three-year high in February, far higher market expectations, while its year-to-date surplus against the United States soared +35%, adding fuel concerns over a trade war. Exports surged +45% from a year ago to NZ$242 bln in February alone, while imports in the month were only NZ$193 bln and far lower than the bump higher we saw in January.

As this data was released, the US Administration signaled it will water down its hard-line steel and aluminium tariff stance.

The Bank of Japan is meeting today and they must also be near issuing turning-point signals on their extensive QE program.

And staying in Japan, they posted their largest January current account surplus since 2011. That extends their very strong 2017 result. And their GDP growth in the December quarter was revised up to +1.6% and far better than analysts had expected (just +0.9%).

American household debt grew in the final quarter of 2017 at the fastest rate in ten years, just before the GFC, on the back of car sales (although some of that may have been replenishment after hurricanes). Overall household debt rose +5.2% while consumer debt jumped +7.8% and mortgage debt grew +3%. In the same release, the Fed also reported that household net worth rose by +2.1% to US$98.75 tln, as the value of sharemarket holdings rose by +US$1.3 tn and the value of their housing rose by about +$0.5 tln.

The ECB met overnight and said two interesting things. Firstly, they criticised the US on its trade stances, and more importantly they dropped the promise to expand their bond buying if the EU economy turns negative. But otherwise, they changed no other settings.

International air travel grew +4.4% in January. its slowest rate of growth in almost four years.

In Australia, their competition commission said it will be releasing its report on how banks price mortgages sometime next week, and it will be a "very interesting" read.

In New York, the UST 10 yr yield is down to 2.86% after getting as high as 2.89% overnight..

The gold price has slipped again today, down -US$4 and now at US$1,321/oz.

Oil prices are lower again today with the US benchmark down to just under US$60.50/bbl and the Brent benchmark now just over US$63.50/bbl. Swelling American inventories are behind the new push lower.

The Kiwi dollar will start today unchanged at 72.6 USc. On the cross rates we are at 93.2 AUc and 59 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 at 73.7.

Bitcoin is now at US$9,250, down another -2.7% from this time on yesterday. This time the drop has been triggered by lawsuits against platform investor Coinbase. Japan has also suspended trading on two of its platforms.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».